Ask anyone who follows Portland about the team's biggest need. The most likely answer? A defensive minded center who can block shots and play above the rim. I tend to agree to an extent, as defensive-minded shot blockers are always incredibly valuable. Serge Ibaka comes to mind as a very good shot blocking post who would fit well next to Aldridge- He led the league with over 3 blocks per game this year. Other similarly defensive minded players like Amir Johnson (who would be an amazing fit- I cannot stress how amazing- in Portland's current system next to LA), JaVale McGee, and Larry Sanders, to name a few, would be excellent fits.
According to 82games.com, the Blazers starting unit in 2012-13 of Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge and Hickson had a winning percentage for the 1143 minutes they were on the court together of 43.8%. For a starting lineup that was generally praised as being solid when compared to many other teams' starting 5's, this winning percentage is somewhat shocking. The starting unit we had scored 1.07 points per possession (ppp) and gave up 1.08 ppp. This is, at best, average, and, likely factored into the lesser winning percentage. When you sub in Hickson for the 7'1" Meyers Leonard, the defensive ppp goes up, to 1.10, which should not shock anyone. The silver lining, however, is that the offensive ppp went up to 1.19. We outscored opponents by 24 points, compared to a -29 +/- for the starting rotation, with Leonard on the court instead of Hickson. The winning percentage in the minutes with Leonard subbed for Hickson was 63.6%- a nearly 20% increase! For a team rooted in analytics (See the analytics issue of ESPN magazine for an extended look at Portland's analytics), it is somewhat surprising that the lineup with Leonard wasn't seen more often. Sure the defense was worse, but the offense was a lot better.
And now, I am going to shock you! There is one player who, when subbed in for both Leonard and Hickson (assume the same starters for the rest of the spots), ups our winning percentage to 72.2%, ups our offensive rating to 1.26 ppp and drops our defensive rating to where we only gave up 0.97 ppp. In the 80 minutes with this rotation- a very small sample size I know- the Blazers outscored opponents by 71 points. All of these numbers are fantastic. So why didn't we use this lineup more often? The player I am talking about (if you didn't realize it by the title of the article) is Luke Babbitt. Babbitt had his 4th year option declined, as his 3 point shooting percentage dropped almost 10 percent this season. I have no problem with Babbitt walking. I have a MAJOR problem, with the Blazer front office ignoring the fact that this team was at its best pairing LaMarcus Aldridge with a stretch 4.
While the lineup with Babbitt took less shots by the rim (not as big of a number as you'd expect), they actually posted a higher rebound percentage (56.5 to 49) with Babbitt on the court, and not Hickson. Wasn't rebounding supposed to be Hickson's strong point. The teams eFG% (3's count as 1.5 field goals) was 40% higher with Babbitt on the court and Hickson off the court. This year the Blazers were 3.5 points better (net) per 100 possessions with Babbitt on the court and 5.7 points worse (net) with Hickson. Could this be the reason Babbitt got the mysterious 6th man of the year 3rd place vote?
There is a lot of evidence that Portland should not bring back JJ Hickson- and I cannot agree more. We must let Hickson walk. I am also not saying Babbitt is the answer- he has obvious shortcomings, has to hit a higher percentage of his 3s, and still only had a PER of 9.5. What all of this data proves is that the Blazers need a stretch 4 who can make a great impact throughout the game. A shot blocker would still be nice, but the data shown in this post shows that stretch 4 is a bigger need. Here are a few options of players who could be available via trade/free agency/draft:
Ersan Ilyasova- Ilyasova is one of the best stretch 4's in the league. Milwaukee's front office and roster are in a state of turmoil, and they might be willing to deal Ilyasova and the 23.7 million dollars (7.9/yr) he has left over the next 3 years (team option of 8.4 million for year 4). Ilyasova's Bucks were a net 3.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court. This last season he averaged 13 points and 7 rebounds to go with 44% shooting from 3 point range. The biggest drawback for Ilyasova is that he is not a great defender- but neither was Babbitt, and his pairing with LA in the frontcourt was Portland's most effective.
Jeff Green- Green's emergence in Boston since the Rondo injury has been impressive (17/5 in March, 17/6 in April, 3 pt 45.5% March/April.) He has 27.1 million remaining over the next 3 years, and might be able to be had due to the aging roster around him. A lineup of Bradley/Lee/Pierce/Green/Bass (Which played the 4th most minutes as a 5 man-group for Boston this year) had a win % over their minutes together of 71.4%, and scored 1.28 ppp while giving up only 0.96 ppp. Green is a better defender than Ilyasova (not by much) and is an improving outside shooter. He might be tougher to get- but Boston may be willing to get cap relief and a lottery pick (#10) for him in return. Next to LA, he fits great.
If a starter-level player cannot be found, solid bench options like the Morris twins could be had. Maybe Babbitt could be brought back. In the draft, Kelly Olynyk looks like a player who could guard centers and step out for a 3- a stretch 5? Olynyk will be available at ten, and could be a very valuable center to pair with Leonard to put next to Aldridge. 2nd round options (we have 3 rd 2 picks) could be Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas or Erik Murphy.
Best case scenario? The team trades their pick for either Green or Ilyasova (we have cap space- so can do an unbalanced trade) to pair with LA. We would still have 3 picks in the 2nd round (Or use them to sweeten the deal) and 4-5 million dollars remaining to sign free agents or make an additional unbalanced trade (Amir Johnson would be excellent- makes 6.5 million next year. Maybe a rebuilding Raptors team would take a deal to shed cap space (unlikely, but it is still the Raptors). Even without Johnson, a good defensive center like Samuel Dalembert could be had for less than 4-5 million. Zaza Pachulia and Jermaine O'Neal would make even less. If defensive center was our top priority, there are options in the draft too. Even the amnesty clause could give Portland a realistic option. Defensive centers are easier to find than good stretch 4's, which is why finding a great stretch 4, as opposed to a shot blocking center for 10 million dollars, is our biggest need.
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