Friday, April 12, 2013

NBA Mock Draft with lottery!

ESPN.com has a lottery mock draft, which runs the percentages through a formula and spits out the teams who are 1, 2, and 3 in the lottery.  For this draft, some picks may overlap with the mock lottery, but only the order is in play for this mock draft.  As a reminder, the big board I posted earlier is my ranking list of the BEST players in the draft.  For example, I rate Russ Smith as a late first round pick, though a team may not take a chance on him in round one, which to me means he is a steal in round 2.  I had a similar grade on Scott Machado last year, who I had ranked as the 24th best prospect, and he went undrafted.  Machado is currently on a 10-day contract with the Golden State Warriors.  Without further ado, the lucky teams in the mock lottery are (Drumroll):

1. Detroit 2. Charlotte 3. New Orleans

Detroit and New Orleans moved up from the 5 and 6 spots, which would be an upset come draft day.  With this result out of the way, here is my mock draft for round 1, including a couple prospects for round 2 for Portland.:
*Note- I am using Draft Express' in/out list to determine which prospects to take out
  1.  Detroit- Ben McLemore- Noel is the top player, but he would duplicate what they already have in Drummond.  McLemore would start at the 2 next to Knight from day one.
  2.  Charlotte- Nerlens Noel- Noel lands here, and most likely will not help much on the offensive end, though he will protect the rim very well.  Adding Noel to a core of Walker and Kidd Gilchrist won't make the playoffs, but it is a good start.  Add a quality player from the 2014 draft and Charlotte's future looks bright.
  3.  New Orleans- Otto Porter- Porter would fit really nicely next to Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson and Greivis Vasquez.  He can be a Danny Granger-esque player, and does everything well enough to fit in well.  He won't ever lead a team, but he could be a great #2 option.
  4.  Orlando- Marcus Smart- If I were Hennigan, I would take Trey Burke, but Smart seems like the consensus top PG (Though that could change).  Smart could take the reigns from Nelson, and form a formidable core with Harris and Vucevic.  This team is not too far off.
  5.  Phoenix- Anthony Bennett- Bennett could give Phoenix the production they hoped for from Beasley.  Dragic needs options, and though Bennett has flaws, he can score in a variety of ways.  Think Paul Millsap with Bennett.
  6.  Cleveland- Shabazz Muhammad- Muhammad has become an enigma.  He can score in the post and as a set shooter, but he is somewhat overrated.  That said he is a good athlete and has natural talent.  His pass percentages HAVE to improve, but I think he will be helped by being on a team where he is not forced to be the #1 option.  As a #3-4, he could be a very nice catch.
  7.  Sacramento- Trey Burke- Sacramento needs a PG of the present and future, and Burke is the guy.  He could wind up being the top player in the draft.  Especially if the team moves to Seattle, a fresh start (again...) is needed for the Kings (Sonics?).  Burke is a natural offensively.
  8.  Washington- Alex Len- Washington's center options are both below the rim, physical players.  Len is an athletic 7 footer who can run the floor, and hit a mid range jump shot.  He can be passive at times, but he has lots of potential to be an Ilgauskas-esque player.  He could team with John Wall and Beal very well.
  9.  Minnesota- Victor Oladipo- Minnesota has been looking for a SG for a long time.  Oladipo can defend very well, and has an offensive game that is developing nicely.  This pick makes so much sense, that Kahn might find a way to take the wrong player again.
  10.  Oklahoma City- Cody Zeller- This pick is a match made in heaven for Zeller.  Perkins is on his way out and Collison is, at best, the top big off the bench.  Zeller could start at the 5 next season, and wouldn't have the same demands placed on him as at Indiana.  There will be a learning curve, but Zeller could flourish next to Durant and Westbrook.
  11.  Philadelphia- Rudy Gobert- This would be a slight reach for Gobert, but he has gobs of untapped potential.  With a 7'9" wingspan, he shows potential as a rebounder and shot blocker.  Philadelphia could use a 4 man, though they might try to stash Gobert for a year instead.
  12.  Portland- CJ McCollum- Portland desperately needs a center, and could look to move down, but McCollum here provides value as a scoring guard who could be the 6th man.  Portland's bench had no depth whatsoever this season, and McCollum could help give Lillard and Matthews needed rest. 
  13.  Dallas- Michael Carter Williams- Dallas wants to make a splash in free agency, so could deal this pick in a S+T, but keeping it would allow them to take MCW.  MCW could start for Dallas in a year or two, and gives them a building block for the post-Nowitzki era (closer than we think).  Dallas can make another run next year, but they need to start stockpiling future assets.
  14.  Phoenix- Gary Harris- They already added Bennett in this mock, and Harris would be a phenomenal compliment to both he and Dragic.  Phoenix would have to be considered a winner of the draft by adding a solid inside scorer and a top-3 shooter in this draft.
  15.  Milwaukee- Jeff Withey- Milwaukee will lose Dalembert, and adding Withey will allow the team to have a shot blocker on the court at all times.  A 3 man big rotation of Sanders/Henson/Withey would be a very solid one defensively and on the glass.  Ilyasova factored in as the 4th can stretch the defense offensively.
  16.  Boston- Giannis Adetokunbo- Adetokunbo is raw.  Although he is dominating lesser competition in Greece, he will likely need a stash year playing in better competitive leagues in Europe.  Rondo will miss significant time, and Pierce and Garnett will be another year older.  Green shows promise, but it does not look likely that a rookie can help Boston much this year.  Why not stash one?
  17.  Utah- Gorgui Dieng- Should Jefferson leave via free agency, a new backup center will be needed for Kanter.  Dieng looks like a 12 year man as a backup 5, and his ability to block/change shots is a sought after commodity.  This is most likely Dieng's ceiling, though I expect big men to rise in the draft.
  18.  Atlanta- Isaiah Austin- Austin showed promise at Baylor, though his motor is in question.  He would compliment Josh Smith nicely (should he stay), and his ability to stretch the court will help Atlanta's already shooter rich team.  Even if Smith leaves, Austin could carve out a Ryan Anderson like role in due time.
  19.  Chicago- Allan Crabbe- Chicago has been looking for a 2 guard for a while, and has missed Korver as their shooter.  Crabbe could help with both needs, as he has deep range and would excel in drive and kick scenarios with Rose and even Deng.  Klay Thompson rose to the late lottery on draft day, Crabbe should go top 20.
  20.  Atlanta- Glenn Robinson III- He could return to Michigan, but should he stay, Atlanta could find a solid 3 man to get rotation minutes.  He is raw now, but has a developing jump shot and defensive potential.  His athleticism will be tough to pass up at pick 20.
  21.  Utah- Kelly Olynyk- If Millsap leaves, Olynyk could be a great replacement.  He can stretch the floor and has a good back to the basket game.  Olynyk and Dieng would replace their two losses nicely, and allow Favors and Kanter the chance to start.
  22.  Brooklyn- Sergey Karasev- Brooklyn is capped out, and may look to stash Karasev for one more year in Russia.  Karasev is a major scorer at a high level in Europe, and would be a good get at this juncture.  He can shoot and drive, and would be great off of Brooklyn's bench.
  23.  Indiana- Archie Goodwin- Indiana cannot start Lance Stephenson at the two for much longer.  Goodwin is a decent playmaker and is good getting to the rim.  There are issues with his motor, but he could be a steal this late in round 1.
  24.  New York- Steven Adams- New York's biggest weakness moving forward is an aging front line.  Adams is raw, but his youth behind veterans could reap rewards in spot minutes early, and potentially as a starter in a few years.
  25.  LA Clippers- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- The Clippers need youth at the 2 spot, and Caldwell Pope is a good scorer in the mold of a Nick Young.  He took bad shots in college, but next to Paul and Griffin, he could be an effective weapon.
  26.  Minnesota- Mason Plumlee- This would be a fall for Plumlee, though he finds a good fit in Minnesota backing up Love.  He has all of the intangibles a scout would look for, as he is tough and smart.  Not a starter at the next level, he could be a very good backup.
  27.  Denver- Mouhammadou Jaiteh- Denver already has extraordinary depth, so they could look to draft a player who will be ready in a few years.  Jaiteh is an undersized center, but he is very strong, and rebounds the ball well.  He could wind up being a cross between Reggie Evans and Bismack Biyombo.
  28.  Oklahoma City- Jamaal Franklin- Franklin is a great fit in OKC, as he has a very high motor.  Next to two superstars, OKC needs high energy guys who can defend and rebound, as he is one of the best rebounding wings in the country.  A second unit of Lamb/Franklin could be very nice.
  29.  San Antonio- Nemanja Nedovic- San Antonio made their living off of European players later in the draft (Parker, Ginobili, Splitter, Mahinmi, etc.) Nedovic is an athletic combo guard who could look really nice in a year or two when Ginobili decides to retire
  30.  Cleveland- CJ Leslie- Leslie would be a good fit as an athletic combo forward, though he has to improve his range to stick in the league.  If he does, he could be a Dante Cunningham style player, which would back up Tristan Thompson very nicely.
Portland round 2 potential players (picks 40 and 46 if the draft were tomorrow):
Russ Smith- I would take him at the end of round 1, but if he falls, his scoring punch would help Portland's bench a lot.  Only his shot selection will hold him back the most.
Isaiah Canaan- If Maynor is not retained, Canaan could be a potential option as a backup PG
Myck Kabongo- Same logic as above.
Mike Muscala- A big man who is a decent rebounder and scorer.  Looks like a teams 5th big man
International Players- Especially if Papanikolaou comes over, there will be one less roster spot.  Stashing another player (Nogueira, Shroeder, etc.) could reap benefits in a few years, as Portland has done with players in the past (Claver, Freeland, Fernandez, etc.)

Thoughts?  Tweet to @ZRey12

No comments:

Post a Comment