1- Lack of Depth: The starting 5 was a unit that was highly regarded, but the bench lacked any players who could step up and make plays. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 37.7 mpg, Damian Lillard averaged 38.6 mpg, and Nic Batum averaged 38.5 mpg. These numbers are ridiculous. Only Durant played more mpg than Lillard- a rookie! Terry Stotts ran the starters into the ground, as nagging injuries started picking up and the guys didn't have the "legs" they had early on, which resulted in less efficient play plagued by poor shooting percentages. I ask myself this question: Did he have any other choice? If Portland was to make a serious playoff run, as they did for the first 65 games, he had to play the best players too much as the bench was essentially worthless. Eric Maynor played well after his arrival from OKC in a mid-season trade (for essentially nothing too)- as he averaged almost 7 points and 4 assists in his time in Portland. That was the best performance we had off of the bench, and we only had him for 27 games. The worst part? Maynor's efficiency with Portland was bad, just like the rest of the bench unit. His PER in Portland was a mediocre 10.6. 15 is league average. Meyers Leonard's PER was 12.1 this season- the best Portland's bench had to offer. While an entire bench unit should not be judged off of one statistic, we did not have one player on our bench play at an AVERAGE efficiency. This is a big issue that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
2- Emergence of Damian Lillard- I touched on this earlier, but Lillard exceeded expectations this year. He won every single rookie of the month award, and looks like the obvious choice for rookie of the year. I had him ranked 5th on my pre-draft big board for 2012- higher than everyone else's boards who I saw- and I still vastly underrated him. I did give him a grade as an All-Star in the future, but he looks like he could be a point guard in the elite tier along the likes of players like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose. The one thing holding Dame back is his defense- which he will learn. He has earned every accolade possible, and won over the entire city of Portland (if not the whole NBA). If any bright spot was brightest this season, it was our rookie point guard. (More on Lillard in detail later- don't worry!)
3- Playoffs or Future?- I wrote about this midseason, and it is still relevant. This team did not have an identity as a playoff team or lottery contender until players started missing games. LaMarcus Aldridge was our rock and go to guy all season, but he isn't the type of power forward to lead a team to the playoffs on his own (for the record- none in the league can). This team has many building blocks for the future, and a very positive outlook, but it was a shame this season had to be sacrificed, as it appears it was in the end.
Here is a run-down on all of the Blazer players of the 2012-13 season, starting with the bench:
Nolan Smith (Unrestricted Free Agent)- Nolan Smith has been very disappointing over the past few years. I thought it was a reach on draft day when we took him (I had him in the low 30s), and I really wanted Faried (whoops...). Smith had potential, as he was a 20ppg scorer at Duke, but he has failed to live up to it. He was a turnover machine in limited minutes this year, and only appeared in 40 games despite being healthy all year. He scored reasonably well while he was in, but he was a liability on both sides of the ball while he was in. Nolan was a great college player, and a good teammate, but I don't see any chance he stays in Portland next year.
Jared Jeffries (2 years/3.1 mil remaining- both years team options)- Jared Jeffries wasn't going to be asked to do a lot. He was going to be asked to be a role model and veteran presence, and provide good defense (and charges galore!) while he was in. He posted the worst efficiency rate on the team, to no surprise. He is not a good offensive player, and is able to take fouls on the defensive end. He only appeared in 38 games, and grabbed 1.5 rebounds in the 9mpg he did play. He was what we thought he was! (Lame quote- I know) I would expect his options to be declined, and I would not expect him to be in Portland next year. If we have an open roster spot in October, though, Jeffries would be a good pick to add as an end-of-the-bench, veteran towel waiver.
Sasha Pavlovic (2 years/2.8 mil remaining- both years team options)- Pavlovic was acquired from Boston in a deal that netted us two second round picks (one in 2013) for the draft rights to Jon Diebler. Pavlovic isn't a great anything in the NBA, but he is experienced, which helped in big games against tough opponents. Like the others on this list, he was not efficient (it will begin to sound like a broken record) with a PER of 6. He is regarded as a good outside shooter, but he shot only 30 percent this year. He is a decent defender, and picks up steals well. Fun fact- Pavlovic shot 17 percent from the FT line this year (1-6). Pavlovic's team option will be declined, making him a UFA with Jeffries and Smith. I would expect him not to be with Portland next year, and if he wants to keep playing it might have to be in Europe.
Elliot Williams (UFA)- Williams suffered a torn Achilles before the season and missed yet another season. He has only played 24 games in 3 years- a number that would make even Greg Oden cringe. Williams showed promise in the games he played, showing off amazing athleticism. He had potential, but the injuries may have damaged much of it. The big knock on E-Will before the year was his lack of an outside jump shot (8-27 NBA, 60-164 college). Without his elite athleticism (Maybe? Don't know if it's really been affected), he will have to become a better shooter to stick. He is an unrestricted FA, but I bet he signs with Portland for 1 year at the minimum for next season. If he proves he can play at a high level, it could be a steal of a contract. If not, it is a low risk investment.
Joel Freeland (2 years/6.1 million remaining)- Freeland was the last pick of the first round in 2006, and he played in Spain until this season when he got his 3 mil/year contract. There was speculation before the season that Freeland would challenge Hickson for a starting spot, but Freeland had issues adjusting to the league, particularly the athleticism of other bigs. Freeland was not efficient (9.4 PER), but he actually looks like a player who will be helpful next season off of the bench. Freeland is a very capable outside shooter, and showed some ability to score in the post. His jump hook shows some promise too. His rebounding was good as well, picking up 2.3 in just over 9 minutes of action. Joel won't ever be a starting quality player in the league, but he doesn't have to be to be considered a success as a draft choice for Portland. He looks like a Carl Landry type player moving forward. He will be on next year's roster.
Victor Claver (2 years/2.7 million remaining)- Claver, like Freeland, was a draft & stash player, as we selected him in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft. He faced some issues in adjusting to the league, but he wound up starting 16 games on the wing, and he looked much better while playing with the starting unit rather than the bench unit. He shows most of his promise as a defender, where he uses his above average length to change shots, and he has good lateral quickness. Claver's ability to shoot the 3 has to improve, as he shot just under 29% on the season. Part of this could involve the transition to the NBA 3-point line. I expect those numbers to rise next year. He, again, was not efficient, but he scored nearly 4 points a game, and showed some ability as a rebounder and secondary distributor. His contract is a great value, and he will be counted upon next year off of the bench for regular rotation minutes. Oh, and he can dunk.
Will Barton (2 years/1.5 mil left, 2nd year team option)- Barton came on at the end of the season as a useful guard off then bench who can penetrate well. He averaged 15 points and 6 rebounds over the last 5 games of the season. Barton's biggest problem lies in his inefficiency (9 PER) and his volume shooting. Part of becoming a successful gunner off of the bench lies in realizing what is a good shot, and when to pass the ball. At times he was a black hole on offense. His defense has to improve as well. On the positive side, he is a very good rebounder for a guard; and, he showed a knack for scoring the ball towards the end of the season, which the bench had not provided all year. He has to improve his 3 point shot, especially from the corner. He could be a viable 6th man candidate next season if all of the FA money is spent on a center. In the video against Dallas, you can see his tendency to overdribble, and force shots, but he has potential that could blossom further next season.
Meyers Leonard (3 years/8 mil remaining- 2 year team option)- My oh Meyers... Leonard brought moments of excitement and moments of stupidity on the court. A rookie who we drafted with the 11th pick, I had him rated as the #18 prospect in the last draft. Offensively is where he excelled the most. He can finish lobs. He has a good mid-range shot. He has a decent post-up game. At 7'1" he runs the court. The other side of the ball is where he struggles a lot. His post defense has to improve. He gave up too many easy looks inside, and didn't block many shots. Much of his lack of defensive production lies in his lack of awareness on that side of the ball. This year he was still below league-average efficiency (12.1), but he managed to score 5.5 a game while grabbing 3.7 boards. I had him pegged as a 2-3 year prospect coming out of college, and that still seems about right. He can still become a starter at the next level, but it will take hard work out of him. Is he tough enough to handle it? Time will tell, but he will definitely be on the roster next year, and we should expect noticeable improvements.
Eric Maynor (RFA- 3.4 mil Qualifying Offer)- Maynor was a big improvement at the backup 1- and 6th man- after the trade deadline. Ronnie Price hadn't played well, which made it easy to give up the draft rights to Printezic for him. After we acquired Maynor he averaged essentially 7/4ast, though he wasn't very efficient. Maynor showed some ability to score on the drive and from 3 point range, and his ability to distribute was a vast improvement over anything that the bench had given all year. In just his 3rd game with the team, he recorded 12 assists off of the bench. Looking at the video, he is very good in transition, and does his best work when he has space to operate, which is not always present in the NBA. At 6'3" he has good size as a PG, and he looks like a backup for his career, though potentially a good one. He has been in the league for 4 years out of VCU, and should get another contract somewhere around the league. ESPN.com's analysis of the free agent market proposed a 2 year 5 million dollar deal as fair for both sides, if he were to return to Portland. I would give his odds of being in Portland next year as 50/50. His rebound numbers are pedestrian, and he needs to up his shooting percentages some to return to league average efficiency. Maynor should at least be considered to be in Portland's long term plans.
Starting Lineup
JJ Hickson (UFA)- Hickson came to Portland at midseason last year after he was surprisingly released from the Sacramento Kings. After signing with Portland, he has become known for powerful dunks and rebounding. This year he averaged 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds, which was good for 7th in the NBA. He recorded 40 double doubles in 80 games this year. Finally, JJ was efficient, posting a PER of almost 20. He flashed a mid-range game every once in a while and blocked an occasional shot, but these are two facets that are not strengths of his game. JJ is an energy player who gets his points off of rebounds and passes. He found some post up opportunities, but he was at his best when receiving a pass when he was ready to score. He is very athletic, which helped him in playing an undersized 5 all season. Let's be honest though- JJ Hickson was a power forward playing center this year. At 6'9", he was undersized against nearly every other starting center in the league. Aldridge has campaigned for a defensive 7 footer next to him, which could lead to JJ's exit from Portland despite his quality play. JJ deserves a contract in the 6-7 million dollar annual range, which would eat up over half of Portland's available cap space. It is likely that a true center will be targeted first before JJ is asked to return. Hickson has had special moments for the team, but he will likely be playing for someone else next year.
Wesley Matthews (2 years 14 million remaining)- In Matthews 3 years as a Blazer he has been very consistent. This year, like the past few, he averaged roughly 15 points and 3 rebounds. He was just below league average efficiency, in part due to his low rebound and assist numbers. A 40% 3 point shooter, Matthews excels in stretching the defense, which also allows him to get to the rim out of his shot fake. He is a complete player who has many good traits and no terrible traits, including great intangibles. His defense is good as well, as he often times guards the stronger of the wing players due to his somewhat stocky frame. He is quick on D, and picked up over a steal per game. In many games the Blazers lost, Matthews did not shoot the ball as well. In wins this year, Matthews shot 47% from 3, compared to 35% in losses. Still a reasonable mark at 35%, this shows how important Matthews is to the team. When he plays well, and is involved early, the team performs better. He was a good fit next to Lillard and Batum because he does not need to handle the ball much- which is good as it is not playing to his strengths. In transition Wes is good, but not great, and sometimes tries to do too much. I fully expect Matthews to be the starting 2 guard again next season, and don't expect him to be used as trade bait to acquire a center to go next to LA. He is the heart and soul of this Blazer team. He's got a little bit of clutch in him too:
Nicolas Batum (3 years, 34 million remaining)- Batum cashed in this past summer after Portland matched the RFA offer given to him by Minnesota. He started out the season on an absolute tear, where he was our go to player in many games. He would up averaging 14.3 points, 5 assists and just over 5 rebounds per game, and he managed a few triple doubles. When Batum was playing his best basketball, so were the Blazers. He finished the season with a PER of almost 16, but he was much better in the first half of the season before he experienced nagging injuries with his wrist and shoulder. He missed the last 8 games. Through January, Batum's numbers were better, and he took 3 shots per game more than he did after the wrist injury. After the injury his ppg went down by about 4 per game, and his shooting percentage was just 39% in March. Negatives aside, he was very good in transition on both ends of the court, and has shown the ability to be an elite player chasing down fastbreaks for blocks. He has been worth the contract he was given- a contract I criticized at the time for overspending. A building block for the team, along with the next two players on this list, Batum should have a long future with the club. His on ball defense has to improve, as he struggles against physical slashers. If Batum can stay healthy, there is no reason to think an All-Star appearance could be out of the question in the next few years. If Deng can be an All-Star (twice!), Batum should be able to accomplish the same feat. Without a doubt, Batum will be wearing Blazer red come opening night.
Damian Lillard (3 years 11 million remaining, 2 year team option)- Wearing the letter O, Lillard was our top draft choice last year at #6 overall. I had him as the 5th ranked player in the draft, and I desperately wanted us to draft him. We struck gold. Lillard is going to win the rookie of the year award (it would be beyond shocking if he did not), and he has potential to be an All-Star in the upper echelon of point guards. He has earned the respect of players around the league, and won over all of Blazer Nation. For years one of the most uttered phrases around Blazer talks was "point guard of the future." Look no more: He has arrived. Lillard was a perfect fit next to LA and Batum, and showed incredibly impressive ability to score in a plethora of ways. He got to the rim, he scored deep 3s. He has a good mid-range game and got to the FT line. The biggest weakness in Lillard's game has been his on-ball defense- which other young PG phenom Kyrie Irving struggled with in his rookie year. There is a learning curve for young PG's in the NBA, especially when you go from the Big Sky conference to defending elite opponents. This season, Lillard averaged 19 points per game this year to go with 6.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds. His PER was a solid 16.5, and will most likely only rise from there. The biggest knock on Lillard was not his fault- the number of minutes he played was absurd, and could have contributed to his somewhat lower field goal percentage in the last few weeks of the season. This season was incredibly promising, and Portland can be exuberant about their future superstar. He will be a Blazer for a long time.
LaMarcus Aldridge (2 years, 29.3 million remaining)- Alas we come to the franchise cornerstone (though it could become Lillard over the next few years...). Aldridge ended the season on a fantastic note to go with a fantastic individual season. There are many elite power forwards in the NBA; this year, Love was hurt, Bosh third fiddle, Nowitzki aging, and Griffin not getting any better. LaMarcus Aldridge is the best power forward in the league right now. Offensively, he is tough to guard. Doing most of his work at the left block in one on one situations, he has a nice jump hook and a fadeaway that is nearly impossible to block due to his high release. He has a great jump shot out to 21 feet, and is good in the pick and roll as well. When Andre Miller ran the point he was also the top target in the league for alley-oops. He is a complete package offensively. Defensively, he is almost underrated as well. For years he was regarded as an average post defender at best, but this season his post defense made strides (maybe Meyers Leonard should watch...). This year he averaged 21.1 points and a career high 9.1 rebounds. He also added 2.5 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. His PER was 20.45, a great score. He doesn't hit free agency for 2 more years, and it appears that the core that has been built with Lillard and Batum will be enough to encourage him to sign another contract, but the gun cannot be jumped. At this point there is no chance Aldridge is wearing another jersey next year. He had a good season, and could become an All-Star for 3 consecutive years next year.
There is the squad for this past season. Moving forward, this is how our depth chart currently looks for next year:
1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
Stay tuned for news about the offseason and the draft. Tomorrow is the Nike Hoop Summit. I will be at the game to see all of the fantastic prospects playing. Look for a recap on the blog later this week.
@ZRey12
Bonus: If you didn't have time to watch all of the individual videos, here is a quick montage of the players with some nice highlights. Well made:
man....hoping my video woulda made the cut
ReplyDelete