Thursday, January 31, 2013

NFL Quarterback Rankings

In the NFL, it takes a franchise QB to lead a team deep in the playoffs, eventually to a Super Bowl.  Without an elite QB a team winds up out of the playoffs year after year.  Here are how I rank the QBs in the league right now:

Tier 1: Elite Franchise QB
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Drew Brees

Tier 2:  Near-Elite Franchise QB
5. Matt Ryan
6. Andrew Luck
7. Eli Manning

Tier 3:  Franchise QB
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Russell Wilson
10. Robert Griffin III
11. Matt Schaub
12. Tony Romo
13. Joe Flacco
14. Matthew Stafford
15. Philip Rivers
16. Jay Cutler
17.  Colin Kaepernick

Tier 4:  Solid Starter
18. Michael Vick
19. Andy Dalton
20. Alex Smith
21. Josh Freeman

Tier 5:  Average with high potential
22. Cam Newton
23. Sam Bradford
24. Jake Locker
25. Matt Flynn
26. Ryan Tannehill
27. Kirk Cousins

Tier 6: Average with low potential
28. Carson Palmer
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick
30. Christian Ponder
31. Matt Hasselbeck
32. Mark Sanchez
33. Matt Cassell

Tier 7:  Backups with high potential
34. Terrell Pryor
35. Nick Foles
36. Blaine Gabbert
37. TJ Yates

Tier 8:  Backups with low potential
38. Tarvaris Jackson
39. Brandon Weeden
40. Matt Moore
41. Kevin Kolb
42. Brian Hoyer
43. Colt McCoy
44. Chad Henne
45. Kyle Orton
46. Brady Quinn
47. Jason Campbell
48. John Skelton
49. Rex Grossman
50. Shaun Hill
51. Matt Leinart

Tier 9: Not ready but potential
52. Brock Osweiler
53. Ryan Mallett
54. Tyrod Taylor
55. Jimmy Clausen

Tier 10: Should be 3rd String
56. Tim Tebow
57. Vince Young
58. Tyler Thigpen
59. Charlie Whitehurst
60. Graham Harrell
61. Byron Leftwich
62. Joe Webb
63. Josh Portis
64. Trent Edwards

2013 NFL Draft Rookie QB Rankings
1. Matt Barkley (Tier 4)
2. Geno Smith (Tier 4)
3. EJ Manuel (Tier 7)
4. Ryan Nassib (Tier 7)
5. Mike Glennon (Tier 7)
6. Tyler Bray (Tier 7)
7. Tyler Wilson (Tier 9)
8. Landry Jones (Tier 9)

This QB class is weak- Do not expect to see a star.  Barkley and Smith can be solid starters, but I am not sure either will ever lead a team to the playoffs without a dominant defense on their side.



Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Updated NFL Mock Draft- 1st round

I have posted mock drafts over the past couple weeks that involved three rounds worth of prospects.  Draft workouts and pre-draft games will alter some draft stocks significantly, so it makes sense to start from round one again, then, I will work back up to a three round mock and beyond.  For example, at this time last year, no one would have predicted AJ Jenkins as a first round draft choice.  After a solid combine and senior bowl week, where he impressed many teams, he was drafted by San Francisco at the end of round one.  So, without further adieu, here it is (note my subtle prediction of SF to win the super bowl):
  1. Chiefs- Luke Joekel OT/Texas A&M- I'm not convinced the Chiefs go with a QB anymore.  Joekel will help protect the blind side of any QB they put behind them, though a new face is needed.
  2. Jaguars- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M- The top two prospects from A&M???  It appears to be so.  Gus Bradley will want to improve Jacksonville's decent defense with a great pass rusher in Moore.  He will find success if he can find a good QB (It's not Gabbert...)
  3. Raiders- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State- The Raiders are in need of a pash rush as well.  Werner could add sacks to a below average defensive line in Oakland.  Don't be surprised if Oakland takes a defensive player in every round.
  4. Eagles- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan- The offensive line in Philadelphia has to be upgraded.  Fisher might be a bit of a stretch (they could trade down to get him), but he has performed well at the Senior Bowl.  His draft stock is improving.
  5. Lions- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama- When you have Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler in your division, it's important to have shutdown cornerbacks.  The Lions scored a lot, but gave up a ton of points as well.  Improved cover defense should help the Lions.
  6. Browns- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia- Jones is the best pass rusher in the draft, reminiscent of Aldon Smith.  Injury concerns will knock him from the top 2 picks, but he shouldn't fall much farther than this.  A solid coup for the Browns.
  7. Cardinals- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia- The Cardinals need a QB the most in the league.  Smith may not be a star in the NFL, but he is better than anyone else in this draft class.
  8. Bills- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah- A new regime in Buffalo, the team grabs a DT who could be a franchise cornerstone.  He could be in the same realm as Haloti Ngata.
  9. Jets- Ezekial Ansah DE/BYU- Ansah has raw talent, similar to Pierre Paul when he cam out of USF.  The Jets take risks, and this is one that will pay off in the long haul.  Rex Ryan needs a better pash rush for his aging defense.
  10. Titans- Chance Warmack OG/Alabama- A guard in the top ten?  Warmack is a special talent, and should help Chris Johnson in the rushing game.  Maybe he can help Johnson return to his form of a few years ago.
  11. Chargers- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee- Rivers really wished he had Vincent Jackson back.  Patterson could be a good #1 option, and help make the Chargers' offense relevant again in the AFC West.
  12. Dolphins- Keenan Allen WR/California- The Dolphins need a WR too, and Allen has potential to be a #1 guy as well, though as more of a possession receiver than a deep threat.
  13. Buccaneers- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State- Rhodes is very athletic, and should see his stock rise after the combine.  Look for him to be the second corner off the board.
  14. Panthers- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri- The offense in Carolina is fine, but the defense struggled.  Adding an impact player in Richardson is a no-brainer.
  15. Saints- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State- New Orleans defense was a big reason for their decline this year.  Hankins could really help their rush defense.
  16. Rams- Barkevious Mingo DE/LSU- Chris Long could use a counterpart across from him, and Mingo has the talent to put up 10 sacks a year one day.
  17. Steelers- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina- Williams is a good pass rusher from the interior, and stops the run well too.  He could wind up similar to Brandon Mebane.
  18. Cowboys- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame- T'eo's odd story will hurt his stock some, but the Cowboys can't pass him up.  They gave up a ton of yards, and T'eo's smarts will help immensely.
  19. Giants- Dion Jordan DE/Oregon- Jordan is tall and athletic, and is a good pass rusher.  He will succeed in the Giants scheme, where he can learn from some of the best.
  20. Bears- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia- Urlacher has been the anchor of this defense for years.  Ogletree could be a decade-long replacement.
  21. Bengals- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU- The Bengals have a great interior defensive line, but could use improvements on the outside.  Montgomery could provide a better pass rush.
  22. Rams (From Redskins)- Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina- The Rams running game is getting older.  Adding a great run blocker in Cooper could help aid Steven Jackson's decline.
  23. Vikings- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor- Percy Harvin has been Ponder's only true weapon in the passing game.  Adding Williams would provide a needed deep threat.
  24. Colts- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi St.- The Colts could have used better secondary coverage in their playoff loss.  Banks, the DB of the year in college, would provide needed help.
  25. Seahawks- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia- Russell Wilson needs weapons, and Austin is as versatile as they come.  He isn't very big, but he makes up for it with lots of speed and agility.
  26. Packers- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma- Johnson would give Rodgers better protection at RT, which is crucial when he throws the ball so many times per game.
  27. Texans- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee- Andre Johnson is still the only viable target for Matt Schaub to throw to.  Hunter will improve the Texans' offense.
  28. Broncos- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame- They probably draft a defensive player, but adding an impact TE will help Peyton Manning.  He loved Dallas Clark, and will love Eifert also.
  29. Patriots- Alex Okafor DE/Texas- He is a good pass rusher, which NE still needs.  They could add to their passing game, though Brady will lead the offense to success no matter who the receivers are.
  30. Falcons- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford- If Gonzalez retires, Ryan needs a capable TE to throw to.  Ertz could lead all rookies in receptions, in this scenario.
  31. Ravens- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas- He could go in the top 20, but could fall due to positional value.  Ed Reed can only play for so many more years, and Vacarro would replace him nicely.
  32. 49ers-Matt Elam S/Florida- Donte Whitner has been only OK at safety for the Niners.  Elam would be an instant upgrade to this already amazing defense.

Midseason Blazers Report

45 games into the season, the Blazers have a record of 23-22, sit in 9th place in the Western Conference, and sit a game behind both Utah and Houston for 7th and 8th in the West.  We sit three games ahead of the 10th place Lakers, who also have the talent to make a late push for a playoff berth.  With two games against Utah to start the month, followed by a 6 game road trip, the start of February could be a make-or-break time frame for this team.  Hopefully the late game heroics by LaMarcus Aldridge last night will carry into some momentum going into February.  (In case you missed it: video from pinwheelempire)

Going into the trade deadline, I think the team should make a move to vault into the playoff picture.  That said, it should be a minor move, and, the move should not involve JJ Hickson.  Here is my favorite idea:

Blazers get: Roddy Beaubois
Mavs get:  Nolan Smith, best of 2013 rd. 2 picks

Why it makes sense:  Dallas will not make the playoffs, and will most likely get rid of Beaubois at the end of the season anyways.  Getting a 2nd round pick is better than nothing, and Nolan Smith's more structured style may fit better in Dallas.  If Smith doesn't work, he will be released after the season anyways.  For Portland, Beaubois offers potential as a scoring guard off the bench, a role he has struggled with over the past year, this season especially.  Just like Portland did with Hickson last year, Beaubois could thrive under former Dallas assistant Terry Stotts, and be just the spark this team needs off the bench.

Team Grades for the season:
Offense: B
Defense: C-
Coaching: B+
Intangibles: A-
Potential: A-
Overall: B

The team has been good offensively.  Our guards can fill up the scoreboard (or shoot our way out of the game), and we have two posts inside who can score in multiple ways (LA especially).  Defensively, the team has struggled.  Matthews and Batum always guard the opposing teams best players, though both post defensive ratings (estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions) of 108 and 106, respectively.  For reference, Tony Allen, a very well respected perimeter defender for Memphis has posted a defensive rating of 99 thus far this season.  Hickson, rather surprisingly, has the best defensive rating on the team, though Aldridge is who most would say is the team's best interior defender.  The saying "Offense wins games, but, Defense wins championships" could be true for this team if they want to make the playoffs.  The intensity must get better on the defensive end.  Coaching has been a plus.  I did not expect the team to be this good so early in Stotts' tenure.  That grade is close to an A, but the team has faltered some lately.  The players on this team have great intangibles, which is a fantastic revelation considering past players over the past decade, and the team has lots of potential to grow, especially once the bench gets some better depth.  Players will develop further, such as Leonard, Freeland, Claver and Barton, but they are too raw right now to efficiently contribute at a high level.  This is where the acquisition of Beaubois could help relieve the pressure off of the bench unit.  Overall, the team gets a "B."  We have a 2-time All-Star in Aldridge, potential future All-Stars in Lillard and Batum, and solid starters in Matthews and Hickson.  The team is looking up from here.  (Stats from basketball-reference.com)

Individual Players: (pts/reb/ast/st/bk/player efficiency rating (per))
Aldridge: 20.7/8.9/2.5/.9/1.2/20, A-.  Aldridge is scoring like the #1 option we need him to be, and has improved his rebounding to the point where is is about to break the 9 per game barrier.  Our All-Star, he needs to continue to lead.
Batum:  16.3/6/4.9/1.4/1.5/17.4, B+.  Batum has looked like a deadly scorer at times.  Other times he is quick to defer in the offense.  He is a good help-side defender, but has to have an aggressive mind-set during every game.
Hickson: 12.9/10.9/1.1/.5/.8/20.5, A-.  Hickson has been a surprise.  As our center, he has been a double double machine, and a capable defender.  He has been efficient, and knows the ways he needs to score.  The biggest knock on him is his size:  At just 6'9", the team may benefit more defensively with a 7-footer playing defense. 
Lillard:  18.1/3.3/6.5/1/.25/16.3, B+.  Lillard is the favorite to win the rookie of the year award, and rightly so.  He has the feel of a PG that many rookies lack.  His ability to shoot the ball, coupled with his quick footwork, has made defenses pay.  Where he must improve is on the defensive end.  Despite his great offensive rating, he has a higher defensive rating.  To get to the next level, he has to become an above-average defender.
Matthews: 15.2/2.9/2.7/1.5/.3/14.3, B.  Matthews has done what we need him to do.  He has been our best 3-point shooter, making 38% of his shots.  He has been a good defender as well, off-the-ball especially.  If he can improve his efficiency above league average (15), his grade will go up.

Before I grade the bench, notice that I intentionally left the bench grade off of the overall team grades.  The bench has been dismal, as you will see shortly.  No player has a good efficiency rating, no player averages more than 5 points per game, and the plus minuses are not good.  For that reason, I am leaving stats off, as they do not serve that good of a purpose.

Barton: C+, Among our bench unit, Barton shows the best ability to score, though he takes a lot of questionable shots.  He is young, and is good value as a second round pick, but he needs to learn to play in the flow of the offense better.
Leonard: C+, Leonard is showing improvement.  He has potential to be a starter in the league, but that is still a few years away.  In the meantime, he needs to get stronger and improve his footwork.
Price: D+, Price is playing too many minutes.  He has had some good games, but overall I cringe whenever he tries to make a play.  He takes questionable shots at questionable times in the shot clock, but he hasn't committed too many turnovers.  That's about the only silver lining.
Freeland: D, I expected so much more out of Freeland.  The English big man is making 3 million dollars this year, but is unathletic and fouls a lot in the post.  He shows potential as a rebounder, and has a solid mid-range game, but role player looks about as good as it's going to get.
Claver: C-, I am still intrigued by Claver's potential.  He has not shot the ball well, but has shown potential as a defender.  When he played with the starters while Wes was out, he looked good as a complimentary player.  On a bench unit struggling to find an identity, he struggles to stand out.
Jeffries: D+, Jeffries takes charges.  Ring the bell, over and over.  He is a bad scorer, and a below-average rebounder, but his intangibles are important for our other young bigs.  He is a great locker room guy.
Babbitt: C-, When Babbitt gets hot, watch out.  Unfortunately, his 3 point stroke is worse than last year, shooting just under 32% compared to 43% last year.  His shot still has to be respected by defenders, but it doesn't look like he can make it enough to carve out a Steve Novak-like role in the league.
Pavlovic: D, Another veteran presence, his awareness has helped the team in many games.  Unfortunately, he doesn't need to be guarded intensely, as he is shooting just 28% from 3-point range, and is a suspect on-ball defender.  This is most likely his only year in Portland.
Smith: F, Nolan Smith was drafted ahead of Faried.  I hate to keep bringing this up, but he has been a disappointment.  He turns the ball over at an alarming rate, and in situations where most college players wouldn't turn the ball over.  He needs a change in scenery or an extended stay in the D-League.
Williams: inc., Williams is out for the season, again.  He would have been our 6th man, but the team is now in a quandary about his future.  His option for next year was declined, though he could feasibly come back at the right price (very low $).  Much of his game is based on his athleticism, and teams will have to wonder if it has been affected by his injuries to his knees and Achilles. 

The team will have a good future, and is only depth and continued development away from being a consistent contender in the West.  Does the team have the mindset to overcome obstacles and make the playoffs?  Time will tell, but I am excited to find out.

Follow on twitter @ZRey12, and of course:  Go Blazers!

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Oregon State Basketball Coaching

Oregon State basketball is 0-5 in the Pac-12, and a 10-8 overall record.  The team boasts impressive non-league victories over a slew of below-average mid-majors.  Yes, that was sarcasm.  While there have been bright spots this season, including a 6-point loss to juggernaut Kansas, the team is not playing well in conference, and ended non-conference season to Towson, who won only 1 game last season.  In fact, we allowed one of Towson's big men to score 20 and grab 20 rebounds against us.  Post play was supposed to be this team's strength.  Guard play has been poor, headlined by Roberto Nelson and Ahmad Starks taking turns shooting contested threes.  Post play has been decent, though Moreland's recent suspension (rumored around campus to be a failed drug test) hurt the team in the 3 games he missed.  Nothing against these players, as these role has been forced on them.  In Craig Robinson's offense, there is little movement, and the offense is initiated by big men who cannot handle the ball particularly well.  Robinson has done a good job over the past few years of creating a marginal team.  As an Oregon State student, and avid college basketball fan and analyst, I think it is time for change at head coach.  The presidential ties are cute, but Oregon State basketball needs a better coach.

Potential candidates?

Ernie Kent- I know, the former Duck coach would be a controversial hire, but he knows how to recruit to the area, and led a few teams deep into the NCAA tournament.  He went 235-174 in his 13 years at U of O, including 5 NCAA tournament berths and 2 elite 8s.  He would bring a new system to Corvallis, which would be refreshing.

Randy Rahe- Rahe is in his 7th year at Weber State, and has posted a 120-67 record, not counting this season.  Despite losing Damian Lillard to the draft, Weber State is 13-3 this year, and 8-0 in conference, including a solid win over Dayton.  If Weber State makes the tournament, Rahe could get some looks.

Larry Eustachy- Eustachy is in only his first year at Colorado State, but he has the team in position to make a run in the NCAA tournament.  He is 417-260 in his long career as a head coach, including a notable stop at Iowa State.  Another offer from a major conference could be tempting, though I admit the Mountain West is playing better basketball than the Pac-12 right now.

Greg Marshall- Marshall may be a bit of a reach, but his name should come up anyways.  After a great tenure at Winthrop, Marshall has been great at Wichita State, winning 2/3 of his games and positioning his team this year for a run in the tournament.  Dana Altman left Creighton for Oregon, maybe Oregon State's AD De Carolis can raid the Missouri Valley conference for another great coach.

Randy Bennett- The St. Mary's coach will need a large offer, but he could be persuaded.  Like the MWC, the WCC is playing really good basketball right now.  St. Mary's has become a mid-major that is expected to make the tournament every year.  A Pac-12 offer would mean a pay raise, but it's hard to make that decision given the success he is having at St. Mary's.

Kevin O'Neill- Has Pac-12 experience, though disappointed at USC.  Could another fresh start be ideal?  His overall win percentage is not ideal (at under .500), though he learned from one in the best in Lute Olson.  A solid recruiter, just as Craig Robinson is, O'Neill might be able to run his system with better big men.  He isn't a great fit, but would come cheaper than the others on this list.

Seth Greenberg- The former Virginia Tech coach always had his team in contention for a tournament berth, could he do it again out west in Oregon?  If he would accept a deal, Greenberg would be my favorite candidate for the job (which isn't a real opening right now, remember?).  He has had success on the West Coast, at Long Beach State in the early 1990s, and could be a good fit.

Finally, there are promising assistants around the country who would love an opportunity to be a head coach for a major conference team.  Robinson has been decent in Oregon State, but, given the talent he has recruited (and that his early success was with Jay John's players), it is time for a change.

Thoughts?  Post in the comments if you think Robinson should stay HC, or if there is another candidate I left off this short list.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

NBA Draft Big Board

I recently posted my first mock draft for the 2013 NBA Draft, which will take place this June.  Between now and then, A LOT will change.  Teams will rise and fall, non-seniors will determine whether they should declare for the draft, and all players will play under scrutiny from scouts in conference tournaments and other postseason play, including the NCAA Tournament.  Here is my updated big board, which is again, a player rankings list based off of who the best players will wind up being (Grade in parenthesis).  For reference here is the grade scale once more:  90-100= Potential Superstar, 80-90=Potential All-Star, 70-80=Potential NBA Starter, 60-70=NBA Contributor, 50-60=Role Player, 40-50=Draftable, 40 and below=Undrafted FA
  1. Shabazz Muhammad (83)- SG-SF/UCLA
  2. Nerlens Noel (82)- PF/Kentucky
  3. Ben McLemore (81)- SG/Kansas
  4. Alex Len (78)- C/Maryland
  5. Cody Zeller (78)- C/Indiana
  6. Alex Poythress (74)- F/Kentucky
  7. Archie Goodwin (73)- SG/Kentucky
  8. Michael Carter-Williams (73)- PG/Syracuse
  9. Otto Porter (73)- SF/Georgetown
  10. CJ McCollum (73)- G/Lehigh
  11. Anthony Bennett (72)- PF/UNLV
  12. Isaiah Austin (72)- PF/Baylor
  13. Willie Cauley-Stein (72)- C/Kentucky
  14. Trey Burke (70)- PG/Michigan
  15. Rudy Gobert (70)- C/France
  16. James McAdoo (70)- PF/North Carolina
  17. Marcus Smart (69)- PG/Oklahoma State
  18. CJ Leslie (69)- PF/North Carolina State
  19. Mason Plumlee (68)- PF-C/Duke
  20. Russ Smith (68)- G/Louisville
  21. Tony Mitchell (68)- PF/North Texas
  22. LeBryan Nash (65)- SF/Oklahoma State
  23. Myck Kabongo (64)- PG/Texas
  24. Brandon Paul (64)- SG/Illinois
  25. Nemanja Nedovic (64)- G/Serbia
  26. Jeff Withey (64)- C/Kansas
  27. Glenn Robinson III (63)- SF/Michigan
  28. Jamaal Franklin (63)- SG-SF/San Diego State
  29. Sergey Karasev (63)- SF/Russia
  30. Dario Saric (63)- F/Croatia
  31. Victor Oladipo (63) SG/Indiana 
  32. Steven Adams (62) C/Pittsburgh
  33. Kyle Anderson (62) SF/UCLA
  34. Ricky Ledo (62) G/Providence
  35. Andre Roberson (61) F/Colorado
  36. BJ Young (61) PG/Arkansas
  37. Isaiah Canaan (61) PG/Murray State
  38. Richard Howell (61) PF/North Carolina State
  39. Gorgui Dieng (60) C/Louisville
  40. Mike Moser (60) F/UNLV
  41. Lorenzo Brown (60) PG/North Carolina State
  42. Doug McDermott (59) F/Creighton
  43. Gary Harris (59) SG/Michigan State
  44. Rodney Purvis (59) SG/North Carolina State
  45. DeShaun Thomas (58) F/Ohio State
  46. Peyton Siva (58) PG/Louisville
  47. Keith Appling (57) PG/Michigan State
  48. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (56) SG/Georgia
  49. CJ Fair (56) F/Syracuse
  50. Zeke Marshall (55) C/Akron
    Next 5: Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga, Phil Pressey PG/Missouri, Aziz N'Daiye C/Washington, Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State, Tim Hardaway Jr SG/Michigan
Bonus- If you haven't seen Silver Linings Playbook yet, go watch it now.  You'll thank me later.  I think it could win best picture at the OSCARs, and Jennifer Lawrence (and Bradley Cooper too, for that matter) was phenomenal.  

Friday, January 18, 2013

NBA Mock Draft 1.0

The NBA is at midseason.  Half the season has been played, and half to go.  I have posted my big board various times (and another post is coming later this week!), but, often the best players aren't drafted in that exact order.  Team needs and NBA readiness are only two of the many examples why mock drafts don't look like big boards.  For example, if the Blazers were picking first, a point guard wouldn't be the pick, as we just took Lillard in the last draft.  I am using the current standings to do the mock.
  1.  Washington- Shabazz Muhammad SG-SF/UCLA
  2.  Charlotte- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
  3.  Cleveland- Alex Len C/Maryland
  4.  Phoenix- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
  5.  New Orleans- Cody Zeller C/Indiana
  6.  Toronto- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
  7.  Detroit- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
  8.  Orlando- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
  9.  Sacramento- Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky
  10.  Philadelphia- Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky
  11.  Dallas- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
  12.  Phoenix (from LA Lakers)- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
  13.  Minnesota- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh
  14.  Charlotte (from Portland)- James McAdoo PF/North Carolina
  15.  Atlanta (from Houston)- Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State
  16.  Utah- Rudy Gobert C/France
  17.  Boston- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
  18.  Milwaukee- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
  19.  Atlanta- CJ Leslie F/North Carolina State
  20.  Denver- Russ Smith G/Louisville
  21.  Brooklyn- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
  22.  Chicago- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
  23.  Indiana- Myck Kabongo PG/Texas
  24.  Utah (from Golden State)- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
  25.  Memphis- Dario Saric F/Croatia
  26.  New York- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
  27.  Cleveland (from Miami)- Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas
  28.  San Antonio- Nemanja Nedovic SG/Serbia
  29.  LA Clippers- LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State
  30.  Oklahoma City- Jamaal Franklin SF/SDSU
    Others to Watch?  Steven Adams/Pitt, Andre Roberson/Colorado, Ricky Ledo/Providence, Kelly Olynyk/Gonzaga, Glenn Robinson III/Michigan, Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
Round 2:  Portland has 2 picks from the T-Wolves and Celtics (ours is owned by Denver) these picks would be (with a potential prospect):

43: Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
47: Richard Howell PF/North Carolina State

A Week Of Controversy

This has been a big week.  Living in the state of Oregon (as an OSU student), I expected Chip Kelly's departure to be the top story to hear about, highlighted by saddened Duck fans and a nonchalant job search.  I say nonchalant because the OC there is a HEAVY favorite to get the job.  In the same week, there were some other controversies:

Lance Armstrong:  After years and years of denial, he finally revealed the dark fact that he doped for years in the sport, even starting doping before his cancer diagnosis.  I was firmly in the camp that he hadn't doped.  I was naive.  There was evidence that he had doped, but I looked to the lack of failed drug tests, and years of truly adamant denial.  Just as Rick Reilly said in his most recent article, I feel duped.  The research and fundraising for cancer research he has done has been incredible, a feat that shouldn't be pushed to the rear, but, he used LIVESTRONG to the point that the credibility of the non-profit could be damaged.  LIVESTRONG should remove Lance Armstrong from the company immediately. 

Manti Te'o:  Te'o had a great season if you ignore the national title game.  He succeeded in emotional times, though it turns out the emotion was mostly fake.  Te'o's story about being the target of a cruel hoax doesn't add up.  I can't believe his story.  There are quotes from many anonymous sources that Te'o was most likely involved in his "self-promoting" scheme.  His story is weird, one I didn't expect to write about, or even see in the media for that matter.  Te'o's draft stock should plummet due to character concerns.  Armstrong lied and cheated for years, but, for some reason I am just as sickened by Te'o's blatant lie.  This morning Tuiasosopo, the high school teammate, apparently came clean about his part of the hoax.  Unfortunately, I don't believe that part about Te'o not being involved.

When I was in elementary and middle school (even now to an extent), sports were fantasy.  I witnessed amazing feats by incredible athletes and coaches.  Lance Armstrong won 7 consecutive Tour De France's.  Without him, one could argue cycling would not be relevant in the United States.  Tiger Woods was the best golfer (could still be) the world had ever seen.  Watching Sportscenter on morning's before school, I would see a 2-minute golf segment that seemingly always ended with Tiger Woods on top of the standings.  I saw Joe Paterno's Penn State team win 10+ games in many years.  There were guns in an NBA locker room.  I grew up with a Blazers team known as the "Jail Blazers."  The world of sports is real, and unfortunately, many of the great athletes I admired as a child are too.  It's disappointing.

Today, I support a supposedly over-achieving Blazers team with players the entire state of Oregon admires.  I can't remember the last time a Blazer player was in trouble with the law (was it Z-Bo?).  It feels good to root for good people on good teams, especially when they win.  In every draft, players slide due to character concerns despite incredible physical talent.  Teams are becoming smarter about drafting, and acquiring, players who will help win games and be positive ambassadors for their respective franchises.  This has been a strange week, but the times are looking up once again.  At least I hope.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

NBA Draft 2012

The NBA Season is about half-way over.  Evaluating a rookie class takes time, as some players take a few years to develop into useful players (Koufos, Mullens to name a few who did very little as rookies).  However, many rookies have shown a lot over the first month.  Looking back at my own rankings, including where players were drafted, how have the rookies done so far? (Order is my pre-draft rankings, actual draft spot in parenthesis)
  1. Anthony Davis (1)- Davis has had a good rookie year, scoring 13, grabbing nearly 8 boards per game, and blocking almost 2 shots.  His offensive game is still developing, but he looks like a great defensive stopper already.  He will be a star.  NO should have no regrets
  2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2)- MKG shows lots of potential.  Though inconsistent at times, his motor has allowed him to score more than 10 a game, and grab more than 6 boards per game.  Defensively he is great, and he has a PER above league average.  If he learns how to shoot, watch out for MKG.  CHA should still love the pick.
  3. Thomas Robinson (5)- Robinson went 2 spots lower than I had him ranked, though that was primarily due to teams drafting for need.  Robinson hasn't earned the minutes the top two have, as he is stuck playing behind Cousins and Jason Thompson (who he should be ahead of).  His efficiency rating isn't great, but his per minute rebounding is.  He needs more time to showcase his talents.  SAC should theoretically have their frontcourt of the future with T-Rob and Cousins.
  4. Bradley Beal (3)- Beal was supposed to be the top shooter in the draft.  He was underwhelming at Florida and has been underwhelming in the NBA so far, shooting less than 33% on 3s.  He has been a lot better in January scoring the ball, and will most likely look even better when John Wall comes back.  Beal needs a better point guard next to him.  Washington is terrible, but should still be excited about Beal.
  5. Damian Lillard (6)- I wanted Lillard in Portland all along.  Rating him at 5 may have been too low.  He will win the ROY award, and has put up impressive numbers at around 18/7ast.  He will improve a lot too.  He needs to be more consistent with his long range jumpers, but he is a future star in the league.  He will be one of the top PGs in the league over the next ten years.  POR should be ecstatic that teams ahead of them passed on Lillard.
  6. Harrison Barnes (7)- Barnes biggest struggle is creating his own shot.  As a rookie, he is still learning how to do this, as athletes around him are more athletic than in college.  He scores the ball well for the playoff-bound Warriors, and rebounds well too.  Oh, and he had a nice introduction to Nikola Pekovic of the T-Wolves earlier this year.  (In case you missed it:    GS should enjoy Barnes as their 3 man.
  7. Andre Drummond (9)- His physical talents are reminiscent of Dwight Howard.  Incredibly efficent thus far, Drummond is scoring over 7 points and grabbing more than 7 rebounds per game, while only on the court 19.7 minutes per game.  I am very impressed by Drummond, and dumbfounded that Detroit doesn't have him in the game more often.  He should be starting over Maxiell.  Detroit has many issues with their franchise, but the center spot won't be one of them over the next decade if they hold onto Drummond.
  8. Dion Waiters (4)- The previous 7 players were all given draft grades that projected them to make at least one all-star team.  Waiters was the first on my big board not in that category.  Waiters looks good next to Kyrie Irving, though is not very efficient.  That backcourt duo, though, should be a good one assuming the improvement of Thompson, and addition of a better 3 man (sorry Alonzo Gee).  Waiters has also improved as the year has advanced, but the Cavs still aren't winning games.  The Cavs should trade Varejao to help add youth to their solid rebuilding project.  CLE still has a good pick.
  9. John Henson (14)- I wanted Portland to select Henson at pick 11.  Still rail thin, Henson has been very good in Milwaukee, averaging almost 6 points and 5 boards in only 13 minutes per game.  He should be starting.  In 20mpg in January, his stats have improved to almost 11/9.  He should have no problem being a 15/10 guy in the NBA.  The new coaching philosophy in Milwaukee has to find Henson on the court more often.  At pick 14, he was a steal.
  10. Perry Jones III (28)- Due to knee concerns, he slipped all the way to the Thunder at the end of round 1.  He isn't seeing the court very often, and hasn't been great thus far.  In the D-League (11 games, 33mpg) he has averaged 14/7.  At 6'11", he plays like a wing, and is still learning how.  Pick 10 was most likely too high for Jones, as he has a lot of developing still to do.  If OKC can get him to reach his potential, though, he has a chance to be a very good player in the NBA, potentially as a starter.  Still a fantastic pick at 28 for OKC.
  11.  Jeremy Lamb (12)- Part of the James Harden trade.  I thought Lamb would get minutes in OKC, but he has not.  In the D-League (11games, 36mpg), he has averaged 21.5/5.5, which are solid numbers.  He needs to get stronger still, and show better consistency when shooting the ball, which was supposed to be one of his biggest strengths.  Lamb has lots of potential still, defensively especially due to his long wing-span.  Expect him (and Jones too) to receive more minutes next year at the 2, especially if Kevin Martin isn't retained.
  12. Austin Rivers (10)- I had him ranked lower than he went, but it looks like I had him too high as well.  He has been horrific for the Hornets, putting up a WAR at nearly -7.0.  That seems like the definition of hurting his team.  Unlike players in this column already mentioned, Rivers is getting 24mpg.  His passing needs to improve a lot, and his shooting has been dreadful.  Over his last 10 games, he is shooting a dismal 21% from the field, including 3/13 from 3 point range.  Thus far he looked like a major reach in the lottery, though most everyone had him rated around 10-15.
  13. Terrence Jones (18)- Jones hasn't had a whole lot of opportunity in Houston:  The land of combo-forwards.  Stuck behind Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris, Jones has only appeared in 11 games for Houston, and zero since a couple of garbage time outings in the middle of December.  His D-League stats have been very good.  He is averaging 19 and 11 while shooting a decent percentage.  If Houston makes a move for another good player, Patterson could be moved which will make room for Jones.  Jones will be a useful player in the NBA, whether as a starter or first guy or two off the bench.
  14. Kendall Marshall (13)- Marshall hasn't had much playing time either.  Stuck behind Dragic and Telfair on the depth chart, he has played nine games in the developmental league, where he is averaging nearly 10 points and 8 assists per game.  With the Suns out of the playoff picture, I would expect to see more of Marshall relatively soon at the expense of Telfair.  The Suns would be foolish not to give their first round pick NBA minutes at this point.
  15. Tony Wroten (25)- I promise I am not a broken record by saying this, but Wroten hasn't had much run either.  He played well for the team in their blowout loss to the Clippers on Monday (though he did not shoot well), but he has played only 24 minutes all season (14 came Monday).  In the D-League, Wroten has scored the ball well, but only averages 3 assists per game.  He had huge potential coming into the league, but is failing to impress in Memphis.  Still young, Wroten has potential, and he was a good risk at 25.
  16. Terrence Ross (8)- I was apparently lower on Ross then the Raptors, who surprised me with their selection.  Ross has been better than Lamb and Rivers thus far, though on a bad Raptors squad.  He scores the ball well, though sometimes inefficient.  Ross plays 17mpg, and scores 6pts and gets 2 boards a game.  He has achieved more than some players above him on this list, but I still think he was a reach at 8.
  17. Jared Sullinger (21)- He slid due to injuries as well.  Playing nearly 20 minutes a game, he is scoring 6 and and getting 6 rebounds per game.  He is exactly the role player the Celtics needed.  He isn't a great athlete, and that was known pre-draft, but he has found his niche.  He had a grade that his ceiling was an ok starter, which still seems about right.  There are lots of teams who took other players who could use Sullinger about now.
  18. Meyers Leonard (11)- Portland's second lottery pick, he is a project.  He is a very good athlete with lots of potential, but he is very raw.  Before his ankle injury, he was averaging almost 5 points and 3 and a half rebounds per game.  He has moments of brilliance and moments of stupidity.  Given his athleticism he could develop into a similar player as JaVale McGee.  Let's hope he winds up being smarter.  18 may have been too low on my board for Leonard.
  19. Tyler Zeller (17)- Zeller was traded to Cleveland on draft day, where he has been the back-up to Varejao.  Zeller gets 27mpg, much more than most rookies on this list, and he scores 8 points to nearly 6 rebounds per game, which are solid, but don't quite match up to the per-minute stats of posts above him on this list, such as John Henson.  His efficiency rating is only 10.48, which places him well below league average.  With Varejao out due to injury, Zeller has a good chance to prove he can be a starter, and prove Varejao can be expendable.  He has to do better given the opportunity, as he is shooting only 27% over his last 5 games.
  20. Royce White (16)- What is there left to say about White?  His off-the-court concerns were much worse than everyone else imagined, and has not been handled well by either side.  If I were to make a bet, I would guess that White never plays in the NBA, which is a shame given his talent.  The Rockets should see if they can get ANYTHING for him, or release him.  Somebody tell Bill Simmons that his Celtics dodged a bullet here.
  21. Evan Fournier (20)- Fournier is raw, but Denver knew this when they picked him.  He has shown flashes of a scorer, though he hasn't been very efficient thus far.  He is scoring 3 a game, and shooting better than expected from the outside.  Fournier won't be a star, but he will be a contributor on a good playoff team in Denver for at least the next couple years.  A good pick at 20.
  22. Draymond Green (35)- The first player in my first round who slipped to round 2.  Green has shot terribly over the season, shooting only 30% in 14mpg.  He is rebounding well, at 3.6 per game.  The fast pace played by GS plays part of his struggles in my opinion.  He isn't a great fit for the Warriors, but his shooting percentage should rise, and he will have been a nice pick early in the second round.
  23. Scott Machado (N/A)- I had Machado ranked higher than most, though most people were surprised when the Iona prospect went undrafted.  He signed with Houston, though was recently released to make way for Patrick Beverley.  He averaged 12/3/7 in the D-League, and didn't get much opportunity in Houston.  He has potential, and would be a good developmental PG for many teams (Blazers especially!).
  24. Andrew Nicholson (19)- Nicholson has had a very good season for the young Magic.  Efficient, he is scoring 7 per game, while grabbing 3 rebounds in 15mpg.  I am slightly surprised he hasn't extended his range to the NBA 3 point line at all (not 1 attempt), but he is playing within is strengths, and is a good piece for the Magic to build upon.
  25. Arnett Moultrie (27)- Moultrie hasn't performed very well this season.  He averaged 9.7 pts and 6 boards a game in the D-League, and has hardly received minutes at the NBA level.  He is a big guy who can defend and run the court.  He should get at least 3 of the 4 years of his rookie contract to prove he can be a solid role player.
  26. Quincy Miller (38)- Miller underwhelmed at Baylor, yet declared for the draft anyways.  He slid to round 2 (and even went behind teammate Quincy Acy), and hasn't seen much floor action in the NBA.  In the D-League he averaged 14/10, though a very small sample size, as he's been riding the bench for the Nuggets.
  27. Jared Cunningham (24)- Cunningham was traded to Dallas on draft day, and has primarily played in the D-League.  He looked ok in limited NBA action, though is buried deep on the depth chart.  He should have more opportunity next season.  He has averaged 18/3/3 in the D-League, though has struggled shooting the ball.  He has to improve his shot to get rotation minutes next year.
  28. Marquis Teague (29)- Part of the dominant Kentucky squad last year, Teague was the last of the 4 wildcats taken in round 1.  Teague can't shoot, which limits his playing time under Thibodeau, but, he has still received 8mpg.  His stats don't stand out, but he is still a very good athlete.  Should get more minutes next year.
  29. John Jenkins (23)- Jenkins can shoot the ball very well, as evidenced by his 47% 3 point percentage.  He is scoring 4 a game in 10mpg, with limited efficiency, though his primary role is outside shooting.  He could wind up being in a similar role as Kyle Korver of Anthony Morrow (all are teammates).
  30. Fab Melo (22)- He hasn't appeared yet for the Celtics, but averaged 10.6 and almost 7 reb in the D-League.  He is extremely raw, and most likely will face a Dexter Pittman like career path.  A top 30 grade was most likely too generous.
Various 2nd round picks (and first rounders who I gave a lower grade), have played well at times too.
Among them are (my ranking in parenthesis):
Moe Harkless (31)
Will Barton (32)
Jeff Taylor (34)
Jae Crowder (41)
Festus Ezeli (45)

Overall, the draft hasn't had the initial impact many (myself included) expected.  However, there are still lots of players with tremendous potential to help NBA teams over the next few years at the minimum.  It takes a few years to truly evaluate a draft class, so stay tuned for continued monitoring of their progress.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NBA All-Star Game

There are starting to be rumblings about who deserves to be an All-Star this year.  ESPN has done a couple of articles and debates regarding the issue.  While this game is for the fans, and a fan I am, I am full in the opinion that the fans vote should be taken out of the All-Star game, to an extent.  The fans should have the final say for the starters, but the broad list offered for voting is ridiculous.  Al Harrington is on the ballot.  And, Jeremy Lin does not deserve All-Star consideration at the expense of a player who has helped his team to victories.  Right now the All-Star vote leaders, and thus the starters if the game were tonight, are as followed (key: B=backcourt, F=frontcourt):

West:
B- Chris Paul
B- Kobe Bryant
F- Kevin Durant
F- Blake Griffin
F- Dwight Howard
East:
B- Rajon Rondo
B- Dwyane Wade
F- LeBron James
F- Carmelo Anthony
F- Kevin Garnett

Should these players start?  Should they even be on the roster?  I think players need to put up impressive statistics to make the team, AND help lead their team to victories.  Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard are both putting up impressive numbers, but the Lakers don't deserve two all-stars given their poor performance thus far.  Here are the players who should be in the All-Star game:

West:
Starters:
B- Chris Paul- The best PG in the PG driven league.  Griffin has helped the Clippers a lot, but this team would struggle to make the playoffs without Chris Paul.  A definite MVP candidate.
B- Kobe Bryant- Ok ok.  I know I just said the Lakers don't deserve much recognition.  However, Bryant is having a fantastic season scoring the ball.  His volume shooting is poor, but the individual results are worth merit. (Side note: Is he actually hurting the whole team?  Possibly...  Get the ball to Nash)
F- Kevin Durant- Has seemingly improved every facet of his game.  Durant makes the Thunder a very dangerous team.
F- Tim Duncan- His resurgence has been fun to watch.  Duncan's craftiness and experience have led him to lots of success this year, and he has SA looking tough to beat. 
F- Serge Ibaka- Ibaka is off the radar some for All-Star consideration, but he is deserving.  He is one of the best defensive big men in the league, and deserves recognition for his great play on that side of the ball.

East:
Starters
B- Rajon Rondo- Rondo's numbers are great, and his play is the reason Boston is even in the hunt.  Pierce and Garnett have declined, and the pair misses Allen a lot.  Rondo deserves credit.
B- Dwyane Wade- Wade is averaging a quiet 20 points per game.  There are still issues with closing the game in Miami, but James and Wade both deserve to start the All-Star game.
F- LeBron James- The most dominant player in the league right now, and leading the top team in the East.  A no-brainer.
F- Carmelo Anthony- Anthony is a tremendous scorer, and a large reason the Knicks have risen back into prominence.  Without him, the team struggled.
F- Tyson Chandler- The best defensive center in the league.  He rebounds, blocks shots, and does everything a center should do.

West:
Reserves:
1 James Harden- Harden has been terrific in Houston, and was just the star Morey needed all along.  They still need a big who can play offense next to Asik.  Gasol would be very intriguing to this team.
2 Russell Westbrook- Westbrook still takes too many shots, but OKC wouldn't be a great team without him.  He is still a consistent outside shot from being an MVP candidate.
3 Stephen Curry- The Warriors are finally good, and are deserving of their first All-Star since the team was in Philadelphia.  Ok, so that was a lie.  But it's been a while (Sprewell, 1997).  Curry might be the top shooter in the league, and he is the X-Factor behind the wins.
4 Blake Griffin- Paul is the perfect PG for Griffin.  His rebounding numbers have dipped, though Griffin is having an efficient and explosive year.  He shouldn't be a starter, but should be on the team.
5 Zach Randolph- Memphis is good again, and Randolph is a main reason why.
6 David Lee- Surprise!  The Warriors get 2 All-Stars.  Lee's numbers have remained consistent over the last few years, so one could argue he doesn't add a large number of wins.  He's been a bubble candidate the last few years, and is deserving this year.
7 LaMarcus Aldridge- What will be his 2nd appearance.  The Blazers were not supposed to be in the playoff hunt, but they have exceeded expectations.  The strong play from Aldridge, including his improvement on the glass, are reasons why Portland is in contention.


East:
Reserves:
1 Chris Bosh- Miami is going to be tough to beat in the playoffs.  Bosh scores in a variety of ways, but has been pathetic on the glass.  Looking only at numbers, he'd be a bubble candidate in the West.
2 Kyrie Irving- Cleveland is terrible, but improving.  They have good young talent, led by a budding star in Irving.  It's not his fault the team is so bad.  (On a separate note, the Cavs should trade Varejao.  Rudy Gay would fit nicely)
3 Brook Lopez- Lopez is pathetic on the glass also.  But like Bosh, he scores in a plethora of ways, and unlike Bosh, he leads a pretty good team in scoring.  Congrats Prokhorov, you bought a 4 seed in a weak conference. 
4 Joakim Noah- Noah deserves to start the game, but Chandler has played extremely well.  Noah fills the stat-sheet, and rebounds at a great rate.
5 Josh Smith- Smith has been on the bubble for years.  I thought the Hawks would miss the playoffs, but Smith has them in contention.  Not sure he resigns, but he deserves to be an All-Star.
6 Deron Williams- Williams has regressed, there's no denying it.  However, he has more talent now around him than the last few years.  Without him, the Nets would still struggle like the Newark days.
7 Paul George- George is the future in Indiana.  Granger won't be in Indiana next year (Early prediction:  Memphis, after Gay gets traded).  George scores at a high rate, and is one of the best young wings in the game.

10 Snubs:
Dwight Howard- Numbers alone say Howard deserves it.  However, the Lakers have had a pathetic season, and don't deserve two All-Stars.  Unfortunately for Dwight, Bryant has had a statistically better year.
Anderson Varejao- Varejao gets snubbed for a similar reason.  He has been one of the best centers in the league, though the Cavs as a franchise have had a dismal year.  Varejao can't be an All-Star, with Irving already there.
Marc Gasol- Gasol is a tough pick to miss the game.  His numbers aren't gaudy, but he provides a ton of value to Memphis.  His emergence, and the consistency of Z-Bo, help make Gay expendable on the wing.
Tony Parker- Parker has had a great season, though there is just too much competition among guards in the West.  He can use this as motivation for another improbable playoff run. 
Nic Batum- Batum has arrived, and has been worth his extension.  Aldridge got the nod for this year's game, but expect Batum to make an appearance or two in the next 3 years.
Kenneth Faried- Denver has had a great season, though they don't have a player worthy of an All-Star appearance based off of stats.  Faried is the closest they have, though he can't create his own offense.
Luol Deng- Deng has been on the bubble for a long time for an All-Star berth.  Unfortunately, this isn't the year for him.  His numbers are good, but not great.  He needs Rose back to max out his value.
Paul Pierce- Pierce is scoring the ball well, but looks slow on defense and takes bad shots.  He still means a lot to the Celtics, and will help them make the playoffs, but an All-Star berth is out of the question.
Jrue Holiday- Holiday has shown massive improvement this year.   He deserves consideration, but not the nod to go to the game.  He will hear his name called in the future.
Damian Lillard- Lillard means a lot to the turnaround Blazers team.  He, among all the rookies, has a decent chance to make the team.  His numbers will have to be ridiculous to make the team.  Dame-sanity?

And just like most years, there are more deserving snubs in the West, than the East.

Thoughts?  @ZRey12

Monday, January 14, 2013

Under the Radar trade Pieces

Lakers- Darius Morris, Earl Clark.  The Lakers need to make a move for another solid player, sacrificing their use to win immediately.  Gasol could come into play, but Morris and Clark have played well enough to become useful trade pieces.

Hornets- Austin Rivers.  Has been a waste of a lottery pick, and, according to Kevin Pelton, could record the worst WARP (Wins Above Replacement) in NBA history.  Though unlikely, it is possible that the Hornets could give up on Rivers for a somewhat decent return.

Bucks- Mike Dunleavy.  A solid shooter/role player, Dunleavy is on an expiring contract.  Shooters are valued commodities by many contenders, and Dunleavy could come into play.   His absence would allow for Tobias Harris to crack the rotation as well.  If the Bucks included Udrih, they could absorb as much as 10 million in incoming salary per season.

Nuggets- Anthony Randolph.  Consider Randolph a bust.  He had huge potential, but never developed into any position.  Still a great athlete, maybe another team thinks they can get some value out of him.

Nuggets- Kosta Koufos.  The Nuggets need more scoring from the wing, and Koufos has more value than Randolph or Mozgov.  Better suited as a backup, there are teams out there that could use size, and trade a better "small" for a decent "big."

Timberwolves- Luke Ridnour.  They'd most likely rather deal Barea, but Ridnour's friendlier contract status lends for his departure with greater success.  Ridnour would be successful on many teams (Blazers included)

There are other players around the league who could be dealt.  Among Blazers, Babbitt could be dealt due to his shooting stroke.

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Game Preview and NBA Trades

In 30 minutes, the Blazers take the court against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home.  The team has beaten the mighty (Miami), the supposed to be mighty (Lakers), and lots of contenders.  There were some embarrassing losses along the way, but Blazer fans everywhere should be happy with the team's start.  Portland is 8 games behind the Thunder in the standings, who lead the league, and sit in 7th place in the conference standings.  Lillard is coming off a big performance in a loss to Golden State where literally nobody else could hit a shot.  Especially against the Thunder, it is important to find scoring from every position.

Keys to the Game:
  1. Hickson double double- Aldridge will most likely have Ibaka on him for most the night, and Hickson needs to take advantage to having the slow and unathletic Kendrick Perkins guarding him.  Hickson's motor has slowed some over the last few games.  He needs to be very active on the boards, offensive especially.*EDIT*- Ibaka out tonight.  Still important for Hickson (and LA) to control the glass
  2.  Force 18 turnovers- Oklahoma leads the league in offensive efficiency.  Portland's defense must be active tonight, getting into the passing lanes and forcing steals.  Easy baskets are very important.
  3. Shoot 48%- Just as Oklahoma is efficient, Portland needs to be efficient tonight.  Shooting 48% will help this cause.
This is a winnable game, especially if the keys are met.

There is lots of talk regarding trades in the NBA right now, as the deadline is roughly 6 weeks away.  Many players have surfaced.  In this list I will go through a handful of players who could be moved.  If they get a rank of 10, they are very likely to be moved.  Similarly, a 1 rank means they should not pack their bags.

Andrea Bargnani- 9, Colangelo's job is burning hot.  He needs to trade his mistake #1 pick
Eric Bledsoe- 2, Unless Paul is adamant about returning, they shouldn't deal Bledsoe.
Omri Casspi- 5, He wants out, and can make 3's, but will there really be a market for him?
DeMarcus Cousins- 3, Cousins can't be ruled out as long as the Maloof brothers still run the show.
Tyreke Evans-7, Evans has flopped some since his rookie year.  He won't re-sign.
Pau Gasol- 5, Gasol isn't used correctly by D'Antoni.  He deserves a bigger role, maybe on another team.
Rudy Gay- 6, Memphis needs to get under the tax line.  Didn't everyone see this coming when Gay signed his extension?
JJ Hickson- 5, Might be playing his way out of Portland's price tag.  They shouldn't deal him, but he should be wary.
Al Jefferson- 7, Most likely will be traded to make way for Favors and Kanter.  The Jazz need a guard.
Courtney Lee- 4, Lee hasn't been great in Boston.  He needs a bigger role, though he hasn't proven he deserves it.
Paul Millsap- 2, A cheap alternative to Jefferson, Millsap is a solid 4 man.
JJ Redick- 6, Doesn't want to go, but a shooter on an expiring contract is a valuable asset.
Anderson Varejao- 4, Makes sense for the Cavs to move him, but rumors have the price tag as exorbitant.

Teams Most Likely to make a move:  Lakers, 76ers, Rockets

Thoughts?

Friday, January 11, 2013

Blazers vs. Warriors, plus recap vs. Miami


Blazer fans around the globe are most likely still in a state of elation after the comeback victory against the defending champion Miami Heat last night.  Down the stretch, Batum had a couple huge plays, Aldridge controlled the glass, and Matthews hit a pair of 3's to help the team to a big victory.  This team is a contender.  If you missed the game, and the call by Kevin Harlan last night, take a look at this:
 

Aldridge put up All-Star numbers, at 20 and 15, Batum and Wes both scored and defended well, Lillard played well at the point, and Hickson had a non-stop motor most of the night.  The starting unit in Portland is gellin', to quote the old Dr. Scholl's commercials (I know you remember them...).  The bench, as pointed out in the national broadcast last night, scores the least in the league, which is a big concern for the team, especially if/when the team gets into a playoff series.  Ronnie Price looked very good last night, Babbitt is as good of a set shooter as there is in the league (shortcomings elsewhere), Leonard is huge and improving, Freeland can knockdown jumpshots, and Claver is a good defender.  They are all solid role players, but there is no go to guy off of the bench, as many teams have.  It is a conundrum, that needs to be solved, to an extent.  A major trade will not occur.  Maybe Barton can step up.  Maybe a trade with a bad team could happen.  Here are a couple ideas:
  1. Rodrigue Beaubois G/Dallas.  Beaubois is a good scorer, though a volume shooter.  He is very long, which helps his defense to a point where he is not a liability.  He is also having a dreadful season.  Maybe, this means he could be had cheaply.  A gamble on the French combo guard could pay off nicely.  Contract Remaining:  This year: 2.3 mil, 3.2 mil QO next year.
  2. Sebastian Telfair PG/Phoenix.  He is already known by most Portland fans.  Supposed to be the franchise PG, he was traded to Boston as part of a deal that got us the 7th pick, which was eventually turned into Brandon Roy.  As a backup PG, and one who can score, Telfair would have good value to this team.  Trading him would allow the Suns to see more of recent rd. 1 draft choice Kendall Marshall.  Contract Remaining: This year: 1.6 million, then FA
 As for tonight against the Warriors, there will be some tired legs.  The bench will be very important tonight.  Curry and Thompson, even Barnes to an extent, cannot be left alone on the perimeter.  This means sharper close-outs, and most likely less help defense (though they don't have many solid slashers.)  Here are the keys to tonight's game:

  1.  Bench scores 25- The bench will be big.  Of the 5 starters, only Hickson played less than 40 minutes last night (35).  Legs will be tired, which could affect accuracy on jump shots, especially from 3 point range.  Scoring, and lots of energy, from the bench are paramount if the Blazers want to win their 5th consecutive game.
  2. Curry scores under 15- If they can hold Lebron to 15, shouldn't Curry be held to a similar standard?  That comparison is most likely unfair, but Curry is having an All-Star caliber year, while scoring 20+ ppg, and shooting  53% from 3 point range over his last 5 games.  Claver did not play much last night, and, if Batum and Matthews are too tired to defend Curry, Claver's length could affect his outside shot.
  3. Force 18 turnovers- Golden State averages 15.5 TO's per game.  They do not take care of the ball extraordinarily well.  By upping the pressure on the point guard, including wing entry passes, Portland can get fastbreak looks at easy baskets.
If these keys are met, Portland should take care of business.
 Prediction?  Blazers 94 Warriors 90

Go Blazers!  Follow me on twitter @ZRey12.


Thursday, January 10, 2013

Blazers (19-15) vs. Miami (23-10)

The Blazers are only 4.5 games behind Miami.  They're also 4.5 games ahead of the Lakers.  The two teams who experts everywhere picked to make the finals now find their respective teams in very different places.  Miami sits at the top of the East, and can likely coast the rest of the season to at least a top 3 seed.  The Lakers on the other hand sit in 11th place, and face an uphill battle to even make the playoffs.  ESPN's analysts are not very concerned that the Lakers would miss the playoffs, seemingly ignoring past indicators that should be a giant red flag for the Kobe-led team.  Sitting in the middle of the 2 supposed super-teams, are the Portland Trailblazers.   Exceeding expectations, the Blazers currently sit in 8th place, a game and a half ahead of the Jazz.  Aldridge has been playing well, averaging 20.6 points per game, with an increasing rebound rate and field goal percentage.  It will take a strong game from him, potentially being defended by LeBron James, to help Portland win tonight at the Rose Garden.

Keys to the game:
  1. LaMarcus Aldridge gets 20/10- As I said before, Aldridge must have a big game.  If Miami ever sticks players like Joel Anthony, Rashard Lewis, Udonis Haslem, or even Chris Bosh on Lamarcus, he should have no difficulties scoring the ball.  He needs around 18-20 shots tonight.
  2. Less than 10 turnovers- Miami excels in transition.  By taking care of the ball, the Blazers can limit fastbreak opportunities for the Heat, and keep this game close.
  3. Make 11 threes- I admit this seems like a lot, though in reality it is only 3 above the team's season average (8.2 per game).  Portland might struggle with cutting in the half-court, and making 3 after 3 will help spread out the lane and neutralize Miami's good help defense.
This game will not be easy to win, as Miami is still the favorite to win it all.  The Rose Garden will have to be loud.  If we accomplish these keys to the game, the Blazers will have a great chance at beating Miami.

Prediction:  Blazers 103 Miami 98

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

College Basketball Rankings

A new college basketball set of rankings came out yesterday from the Associated Press.  These would be my rankings, if I had a vote.
  1.  Duke (14-0)- They face their first test in about a month on the road against NC State.  Don't count out the Wolfpack in this one.
  2.  Michigan (15-0)- This team is playing the best basketball in the country, led by PG Trey Burke.  They face 3 ranked teams in January, but I think Michigan goes undefeated until Feb.
  3.  Arizona (14-0)- Undefeated still, but has not looked very good over the last week.  Expect the Ducks or Beavers to knock off Arizona this next week.
  4.  Louisville (13-1)- Their only loss is to #1 Duke.  In 2 weeks they play at home against Syracuse in what will be a top ten match-up.  I'm leaning Cardinals by ten.
  5.  Indiana (13-1)- Just as Michigan runs the table in January, Indiana will too.  This will set up a huge match-up on February 2nd between the 2 teams.  A potential top 3 match-up.
  6.  Kansas (13-1)- The Big 12 is weak this year.  Kansas might lose a game in conference (maybe Oklahoma State), but the competition they will face is light compared to other conferences.
  7.  Gonzaga (15-1)- The Zags have been very impressive, winning against 5 Big 12 teams, among others.  On January 19th, they play at Butler.  Expect a tight one.
  8.  Syracuse (14-1)- Only loss came to Temple.  If they want to beat Louisville on the 19th, Carter-Williams needs to be more efficient.  His shooting has been dismal.
  9.  Missouri (11-2)- The SEC is also down this year.  After squeaking out a win vs. Bucknell, the Tigers take some momemtum into conference schedule.  They will win @Florida on the 19th.
  10.  Minnesota (14-1)- I look like a fool for ranking them so low last time.  After a convincing win against Michigan State, the Gophers play their next 3 games against top 12 teams (AP).  Time to prove they belong.
  11.  Illinois (14-2)- The Illini play Minnesota tomorrow at home.  They need to win to vault back into the top ten.  After a solid non-conference, I'll take Illinois 72-65.
  12.  Georgetown (14-2)- I'll admit it, their offense is abysmal.  However, Marquette isn't an awful loss, and they can redeem that loss with solid conference wins, such as against Pitt tonight.
  13.  NC State (12-2)- NC State is playing well.  Home against Duke on the 12th, the Wolfpack has a great chance to win.  More physical up front, NC State should attack the paint.  Plumlee cannot guard both Leslie and Howell.  NC State upsets #1 76-74.
  14.  Butler (12-2)- Butler hasn't lost since November.  This team is fundamentally sound, and great defensively.  Their match-up against the Zags on the 19th is very intriguing, especially at home.
  15.  Virginia Commonwealth (12-3)- VCU might have the best press in the nation, not surprising for a Shaka Smart team.  The A-10 will be tough, but VCU will win the conference.
  16.  Kansas State (12-2)- They picked up a big win against Oklahoma State after beating Florida at the end of December.  This team is hot and won't lose going into their Jan. 22nd rivalry game at home vs. Kansas.
  17.  UCLA (12-3)- I still think UCLA makes a run at the conference title.  This team is deep, and has a go-to star in Muhammad.  January 24th @Arizona is a huge match-up to develop national credibility.
  18.  Florida (10-2)- This team is ranked WAY too high by the AP and coaches.  Their best win was against an underwhelming Wisconsin team.  They get beat badly at home to Missouri on the 19th.
  19.  UNLV (13-2)- UNLV plays ranked opponents in 2 of their next 3 games.  If they want to win the Mountain West, winning those 2 will be crucial.
  20.  Oregon (12-2)- After a solid win in the Civil War, Oregon gets the Arizona schools at home this week.  Jan. 10th, vs. Arizona, Oregon has a great chance at an upset.
  21.  Creighton (14-1)- Creighton has lots of above-average wins, but none against ranked opponents.  Wichita State is the only opponent who could steal the conference from them.
  22.  Michigan State (12-3)- This team is inconsistent.  They need Appling to score more, and Dawson to be more aggressive.  They will still be a tough out in the Big Ten.
  23.  Ohio State (11-3)- They got beat badly vs. Illinois.  With matchups against Michigan and Michigan State, the Buckeyes can get back on track in the next 2 weeks.
  24.  Maryland (13-1)- Maryland has quietly had a great season.  Only losing to Kentucky, who has more talent than many ranked teams, Maryland could finish as high as 2nd in the ACC.  I think NCST beats them out, but they could easily beat UNC.
  25.  Notre Dame (14-1)- Notre Dame doesn't have an NBA prospect, but this team is very deep, led by Jack Cooley.  Their game against Georgetown won't be pretty to watch, but it could go a long ways in figuring out who finishes behind Louisville.
Next 5:  Kentucky, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Wyoming, Wichita State  
Bonus: Watch out for Bucknell...  this team is very scary, and will upset a good team in the tourney.

Monday, January 7, 2013

What to do about Nolan Smith

Nolan Smith came into the season poised to become the back-up point guard behind Damian Lillard.  In his second season, it was expected that he improve enough to at least crack the rotation.  Come January, his contract options (of which there were two left) have been declined, he is behind Ronnie Price on the depth chart, and he was recently assigned to the developmental league affiliate Idaho Stampede.  It is clear that Smith (who most fans wanted to see Faried taken with the pick anyways) is no longer in the Blazers plans for the future.  Is there anything on the market for which we could swap Smith for? 

-Omri Casspi recently requested a trade.  He is a free agent, and most likely on his way back to Europe, but is he really an upgrade over Claver or Babbitt?

-A 2nd round pick.  Most contenders would not deal a pick for someone who can't crack a rotation on an average team.  Most non-contenders would not either.

-Packaged as part of a bigger deal.  This is the most likely outcome, though given Portland's success some think the team should be buyers, and not sellers.  Should this occur, JJ Hickson would most likely be on his way out.  I realize that he has been phenomenal, and exactly what we have needed, but is he playing his way out of our price range?

-Release him, and sign a free agent.  Also possible.  Smith needs a fresh start, and a rookie like Scott Machado, who went undrafted (I had a late rd. 1 grade on him, the #23 prospect on my board) could fill his place on a rest of season deal, and a non-guaranteed year after this year.  Machado is more of a pass first guard than Smith, but does not score on his own. 

I would try to pry a rd. 2 pick, and if unsuccessful I would release him to sign Machado, who has more upside.

Thoughts?

Friday, January 4, 2013

Weekend Quick Picks

Lots of games to be excited about this weekend.  Who do I like in the top match-ups (including the PAC 12)?

NCAA Hoops:
Saturday:
Ohio State 66 Illinois 63
Missouri 81 Bucknell 77
Oklahoma State 78 Kansas State 63
NC State 74 Boston College 60
Maryland 80 Virginia Tech 64
VCU 71 Lehigh 64
UCLA 75 Stanford 66
Arizona 80 Utah 57
Washington 67 Washington State 65
California 67 USC 60
Sunday:
Kansas 76 Temple 59
Michigan 81 Iowa 66
Oregon State 76 Oregon 72
Colorado 68 Arizona State 59

NBA:
Blazers 95 Timberwolves 87

National Championship Game:
Alabama 24 Notre Dame 16

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Blazers (15-14) @NY Knicks

Portland has had a surprisingly good start, and a great end to 2012.  The team kicks off 2013 on a 4 game road trip.  The Blazers have been much better at home, posting only a 4-10 record away from the Rose Garden.  The match-up against New York is intriguing.  Carmelo Anthony is a game time decision, Amare Stoudemire is making his return from injury, and Blazer fan least favorite Raymond Felton is out with an injury.  JR Smith has played well for New York, Chandler has kept the interior defense solid, and Novak has in the building range on his jump shot.  Just as Amare is coming back, Portland's starting 2 guard Wesley Matthews could be making a return tonight from his hip flexor injury.  His addition to Portland's roster could be the difference in winning or losing this game.  Here are the keys to winning tonight's match-up:

  1. Win the rebound battle- Easier said than done.  Hickson's motor on the glass has been fantastic, and he needs to keep it up.  The Knicks rebound well from every position so this will be a team effort.
  2. Lillard scores 25-  Jason Kidd is crafty, but shouldn't be able to stay in front of Lillard for most of the game.  With his quick first step, he could find lots of open jump shots from the elbow. 
  3. Limit Stoudemire to 10 points- Especially if Anthony is unable to play, Stoudemire should look to score often.  I would defend him with Aldridge, whose length should affect many facets of Amare's game.  If he is forced into shooting many 18-footers, he should be limited offensively to only a few field goals.