Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Opening Night Preview vs. Lakers (0-1)

Opening night.  Filled with red, the Rose Garden will undoubtedly roar with enthusiasm upon the tip off of the season.  The fans in Portland can be an advantage, especially on such an emotional night, and it is crucial for the guards to hit outside shots early on and to find Aldridge at the left block frequently throughout the game.

Projected Starters:

Lillard                       Nash
Matthews                  Bryant
Batum                       World Peace
Aldridge                   Gasol
Hickson                    Howard

Matchups:

Expect Batum to start defending on Kobe, and LMA on Gasol, rather than Howard.  We will throw lots of various bigs at Howard (Hickson, Leonard, Jeffries, maybe Freeland), as they can get into foul trouble without too much of an issue.  After shooting 3-14 from the line last night vs. Dallas, fouling Howard may be a good strategy.  Lillard will start on Nash, and he needs to be aggressive and get past him with his quick first step.

The Lakers bench has improved with the addition of Jamison, though the overall depth of the bench should not give the Blazers' bench too much difficulty.  Blake can hit open 3's, Jamison is a mid range guy, and Hill will crash the boards.  Other than those characteristics, the bench should not be terrible to defend.  If our matchups against their bench can get out in transition and score easy baskets the odds of winning will go up.

The Lakers struggled last night in part because their core had not played many minutes together.  Portland is in a slightly similar scenario with 5 rookies being part of the rotation.  Lillard and Aldridge need to continue to build a strong rapport, especially in pick and pop scenarios, as well as feeding LMA on the block.  Nic and Wes need to shoot well, and not force shots.

Here are my keys to win:
1 Shoot 48%
2 Win the rebound battle
3 Commit less than 12 turnovers.

Should be an exciting game!  GO BLAZERS!

#RIPCITY

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The James Harden Effect

The Thunder cashed in on James Harden, after they were not able to agree upon an extension earlier this week.  Will other teams do the same with players on expiring deals?  Here are 3 potential trades that could happen near the trade deadline.
              *note:  None of these deals have been rumored, but they make sense financially and from a basketball standpoint.

1. Detroit receives:  Al Jefferson
    Utah receives:  Rodney Stuckey, Andre Drummond, Will Bynum, Lottery protected rd. 1 pick.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=8obwn74

With the recent emergence of Enes Kanter, Utah should look to get something in return for Jefferson, who is likely to leave after the season via free agency.  Detroit can speed up their rebuild by getting Jefferson to pair with Greg Monroe in the front court, while allowing Brandon Knight to take the reigns at the point.  Drummond is a bigger project than Detroit fans may realize, and he could prosper fully if he were allowed to develop behind Kanter and Favors.  Stuckey has not been the player Detroit thought he would be, but as a backup to Alec Burks he could flourish.

2.  Dallas receives:  Josh Smith, Johan Petro
     Atlanta reeives:  OJ Mayo, Chris Kaman, Roddy Beaubois, Brandan Wright, future rd. 1 pick (lottery protected)
*Trade has to occur after Dec. 15 because of trade restrictions

Smith is going to leave ATL after the season.  Dallas will struggle this season, and, having missed out on Howard and D-Will, Dallas will make a big push for Smith to stay in the playoff hunt.  Smith would pair well with Dirk, as he has athleticism at a level Dirk does not.  For Atlanta, OJ Mayo and Rodrigue Beaubois have underwhelmed thus far in their careers, but the change of scenery (while Dallas is new for OJ anyways) could be a positive factors towards reaping benefits from the players.  Both guards would be improvements over players like Teague and Stevenson.  The acquisition of Kaman would also allow Horford to play his more comfortable position of power forward.  If Mayo would commit to resigning with ATL, the Hawks may pull the trigger on a trade.

3.  Orlando receives:  Tyreke Evans, Chuck Hayes
     Sacramento receives:  JJ Redick, Andrew Nicholson, Kyle O'Quinn, 2 rd. 1 picks (from Howard trade)

Remember when OKC was chastised for drafting Harden over Evans?  Hindsight...  The Evans experiment in SAC has not gone according to plan, and, they should move him and look to rebuild the future around DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson.  In Orlando, Evans has one last shot to be "The guy."  Sacramento gets a solid role player on an expiring deal in Redick.  He is much more efficient than Marcus Thornton, and could be valuable if Sacramento contends for a low playoff seed in the West.  He will probably opt for free agency as well (Is Portland a possible destination?).  Nicholson has an intriguing skill set, and O'Quinn could be a decent role player down the line.  The first round picks may not be high (as they come from the Lakers), but they will allow Sacramento to continue to add youth to the roster.


These trades are all hypothetical, however, if the Thunder have success, even after dealing James Harden, other teams may look to follow their lead.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

One more add on to season preview...

Which players are overrated/underrated going into the season?

Overrated:

1  Derrick Rose- For this season only.  His ACL recovery is going to take longer than thought, and Chicago will be an afterthought this season.
2 Jeremy Lin- The potential is there, but Houston's underwhelming supporting cast (even with the Harden addition) will lead to a poor record.  Potential is there for the future, but Lin will produce average numbers this season.
3 Glen Davis- Orlando will be awful this year, in part to giving a marginal player like Davis a 20 million dollar contract.  Given the poor talent on the roster, Davis will see minutes, and underwhelm in his time on the court.
4 Brook Lopez- He can score from the low post, but he is an awful rebounder, and reliance on Kris Humphries on the glass will not be enough.  His defense is poor as well.  Brooklyn will be improved, but the moves they made this offseason, especially the expensive Lopez deal, do not move them into the elite category.
5 Tyreke Evans- His stock has fallen, but the Kings are still reliant on his success to improve to the next level and make the playoffs.  This is not the year for Sacramento fans.  The post game will be improved, but the guards will struggle, especially Evans.

Underrated:

1 Taj Gibson-  Boozer has regressed, and Gibson may get many clutch minutes for Chicago instead of Boozer.  His rookie scale contract ends soon, and he should get a payday to make him the starter in Chicago as early as next season.
2 Kosta Koufos- May not get the majority of minutes at the 5, as JaVale McGee is coming off the bench.  That said, Koufos is an incredibly efficient player, an will rebound and score often in the fast paced Denver offense.
3 Kenneth Faried- Maybe I like the frontcourt in Denver?  His hustle, and vision for rebounding is astounding.  He might be a candidate for most improved if he can develop offensively.
4 John Wall- He has not been the go to guy Washington envisioned, but the cast around him has been dreadful.  Now that WAS has Beal, a good defender in Ariza, and competent bigs in Okafor and Nene, Wall has no more excuses to fail.  Washington won't make the playoffs, but Wall will finally have a good enough year to give Wizards fans optimism again.
5 John Henson- Bogut is no more in Milwaukee.  The bucks need a big to step up and rebound and block shots.  Young bigs Udoh and Sanders have not developed as planned, and Henson's length should be a great fit for many minutes at the 4.  A big lineup of Ilyasova (who should keep up his solid numbers), Henson and Dalembert could prove to be very effective on the glass, and in a half court set. 


3 days and counting...

NBA fans, especially for Rip City, are all getting excited for the debut of their respective teams in games that actually count for something.  I have already previewed the Blazers, but what of the rest of the league?  I will reveal my picks for awards and accolades for the entire league:

MVP:  LeBron James- has to be.  He is so effective in so many ways, Durant will have to put up numbers beyond 30ppg and rebound at a high rate to take this away.
    Keep an eye on:  Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard

Defensive POY:  Dwight Howard-  Still the best defender in the game.  His rate of blocked shots and rebounds should remain constant, as Gasol is not the strongest defender himself.  Posts for opposing teams will hate shots at the rim because of Howard.  Lakers will be a scary defensive team inside.
    Keep an eye on:  Anthony Davis, Tyson Chandler

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis- I want to pick Lillard VERY BADLY, but Davis is a future superstar, and I expect him to average a double double out of the gates.  His defense should translate as well.  He is a post game away from being elite.
     Keep and eye on:  Damian Lillard, Jonas Valanciunas

Most Improved Player:  Goran Dragic- Back in Phoenix, Dragic should put up large numbers as a starting PG in the league.  Last season in Houston, he was great as a starter, and I expect no dropoff from him this year.  If miscast players like Michael Beasley, Luis Scola and Wes Johnson can regain their game, Dragic could average 8+ assists a game.
    Keep an eye on:  Kosta Koufos, Brandon Jennings

Sixth Man:  Lou Williams- Atlanta has traded Joe Johnson, and the need for backcourt scoring has never been higher.  Josh Smith and Al Horford are good on the inside, but Williams might be the only guard on the roster who can create their own shot.  He was very efficient in Philly, and should see no regression this season.
    Keep an eye on:  Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry

Coach of the Year:  Scott Brooks- Many people will point to the loss of Harden as a reason OKC will regress offensively.  I expect little loss offensively, as Martin is very capable.  Despite LA having a phenomenal offseason, OKC will still win the west.
    Keep an eye on:  George Karl, Scott Skiles.

Executive of the year:  Mitch Kupchak- The Lakers offseason was fantastic, and as long as the new acquisitions translate to wins, Kupchak should win the award.
    Keep an eye on:  Sam Presti

Playoffs:
East:
rd. 1- MIA over MIL, BOS over BRO, PHI over IND, NY over CHI
rd. 2- MIA over NY, PHI over BOS
rd. 3- MIA over PHI
West:
rd. 1- OKC over GS, LAL over MIN, LAC over MEM, DEN over SA
rd. 2- OKC over DEN, LAC over LAL
rd. 3- OKC over LAC
NBA finals:  OKC over MIA, in 6 games


Thunder Trade James Harden

Yesterday the Thunder traded James Harden, sixth man of the year and team USA member, to the Houston Rockets.  In addition the Rockets also obtained Cole Aldrich (who has performed well in pre-season), Daequan Cook (won't play much) and Lazar Haywood (will play even less).  The Thunder received Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, 2 first round picks (one of which is guaranteed to land in the lottery, the other top 20 protected) and a 2nd round pick (will be in the 30s b/c pick from CHA).

My thoughts?

The Thunder's front office proved again why they are among the best in the league.  Harden is a good player, but not deserving of a max contract, as he will get from Houston.  Kevin Martin draws fouls at a very high rate, and is a great spot up shooter, which will be perfect next to Russell Westbrook.  Jeremy Lamb has lots of potential, and should see rotation minutes at the 2 for OKC.  In addition, the first round picks will help OKC stay great and improve depth some more, especially if players like PJIII fall in their lap again.

In short, I love this trade for OKC.  Houston still won't make the playoffs, but has an intriguing backcourt in Harden and Lin.  This is a big season to see how good Lin really is.

Grades:
OKC: A
HOU: B+



also of note- Houston had to cut more players to make space for the players acquired from OKC.  Among them was former Purdue star JaJuan Johnson.  Blazers should go after him and cut Pavlovic.

Friday, October 26, 2012

Final Roster Announced

The final 15 man roster was announced today, as Coby Karl, Justin Holiday and Adam Morrison have all been cut, joining Demonte Harper and Dallas Lauderdale as players who won't be trailblazers.

Karl-  Played really well in preseason (albeit against scrubs), but outperformed guards like Price and Smith in particular.  Unfortunately, he is old enough to have worn out any potential he may have left.  Best case scenario for Karl:  10-day contracts with a contender with a chance to stick
      Best Fit:  San Antonio

Holiday-  Nothing like his younger brother, Justin is a good defender and decent shooter from the outside.  That's abut all hes got though.  He could be a lockdown defender for the Idaho Stampede this year, but he has very little potential at the NBA level, as his game does not translate incredibly well.  Best case scenario:  D-League

Morrison-  Is it safe to say this is the end of his career?  As a spot up shooter, he looked ok vs. the Lakers, but relied on forced jump shots  throughout the preseason that led to an absurdly low field goal percentage.  Given that he is a worse defender than either Babbitt or Pavlovic did not help either.
Best case:  Front office of Bobcats?  (Hey MJ has to get something back on that investment)

Harper and Lauderdale:  good college players who are fringe d-league players.  Good hustle will give them rotation minutes at that level, but don't expect to hear their names again with ties to this roster.

Final Roster:
1 Lillard/Smith/Price
2 Wes/Barton
3 Nic/Claver/Babbitt/Pavlovic
4 LA/Freeland
5 Hickson/Leonard/Jeffries

inj: Elliot Williams

Monday, October 22, 2012

Rotation?

Here is how I would set the rotation to start the regular season:

1 Lillard- 35 min
2 Mathews- 34 min
3 Batum- 34 min
4 Aldridge- 37 min
5 Hickson- 25 min
---------------
6 Barton- 15 min
7 Leonard- 20 min
8 Freeland- 10 min
9 Claver- 10 min
10 Price- 8 min
11 Smith- 5 min
12 Babbitt- 5 min
13 Jeffries- 2 min
IR 1 Pavlovic
IR 2 Williams

Blazer Season Preview

22 October 2012

Blazers Season Preview

Its been a long summer, and the Portland Trailblazers are stuck in a rebuilding year.  As the saying goes, "It's always darkest before the dawn," this is the year Blazer fans may have to watch in agony, as its the valley on the way to the to the top.  Our official rebuilding effort starts Oct. 31.  There will be bright spots, and signs to the future, but wins may not translate right away.  Regardless, here is what I think of the team going into tonight's preseason game vs. Utah:

LA will average 21 and 10, assuming in Terry Stotts offense he gets 8-10 touches per game at the left block, and many additional touches in the mid range area or off pick and pops. If he and Lillard can develop a rapport for alley-oops like he and Andre Miller had, LA can have a very promising season. He also needs to pass better out of the post to increase efficiency of our offense.  He makes his 2nd consecutive all-star appearance. (Sorry David Lee...)

Lillard will average 16 points and 7 assists per game. He won't win rookie of the year, because Davis will emerge as Griffin+defense, but he will be the 2nd best rookie in the draft class this year. He will go through some bumpy stretches, but have some moments that make us giddy as blazer fans. (hell go off for 30 multiple nights)  The potential is there, and he will have a learning curve, but he will be a top 10 pg in 5 years.

Wes will average 14 and 3 boards, as a catch and shoot player he is deadly, and if he can improve ball handling his at-the-rim effectiveness will improve.  Defensively he is best when he, not Batum, is on the other team's best player.  He needs to prove he can score when Lillard is cold.

Nic will average 12, 4 boards and 4 assists. He is a solid swingman, but must improve shooting off the dribble to score more, or get all the way to the rim instead of taking fade-aways, which he is ineffective with. At this point, catch and shoot should be his primary scoring method.  The huge contract he got this summer is one I am skeptical of, as it is too much for a rebuilding team to give to a player who is just a B player in the league.  He needs to break out this year, period.

Leonard will be the starting 5 by midseason. When he starts he will average 7 and 8 boards, and will show big improvements defensively from the start to the end of the season. Year 2 will have much more promise for Meyers.

JJ will average 8 and 9 boards, though struggle against taller posts, and will be traded midseason for a late rd. 1 pick from a contender.

Barton will be our 6th man by midseason, for his ability to score efficiently.  Of our reserves who can create their own shot, he has the best chance to do it consistently.

Nolan, E-Will, Babbitt, Jeffries will all have options declined at seasons end.

Freeland and Claver will show promise, but year 2 will be better for both.  They will both be very good role players over the course of the next 3 or 4 years.  Claver has potential to develop similarly to Batum in Nate's offense.  Freeland needs to work the pick and pop more.

IMO, Coby Karl should make the roster.

best case:  41-41
worst case:  26-56

There is reason for optimism, but be patient blazer fans.


RIP CITY!