The trade deadline has passed, JJ Hickson is still a Blazer, Eric Maynor has upgraded the backup PG slot and Ronnie Price has been waived. Maynor is a big upgrade for our bench unit, and adds depth to a team that previously had none. Last night, Portland beat a Boston team to remain in the hunt for the 8th seed in the playoffs. 4 games behind Houston and 5 behind Utah, the team currently sits at 10th in the West (the Lakers have passed us for 9th) with a record of 26-30. Dallas is closing in on us as well. The biggest question for our deadline acquisition: Was it enough?
Maynor most likely does not put us over the top and into the playoff picture (Hollinger's playoff odds on ESPN.com list us as having a 3.5% chance of making the playoffs), but the depth he adds solves a big issue. A team cannot play its starters 38 minutes every night and expect the same performance every night. Players experience fatigue. As a reference point, Tony Parker and Chris Paul average 33 and 32.6 minutes per game, compared to Lillard's 38.5 minutes per game. Blake Griffin plays around 6 minutes per game less than LaMarcus Aldridge. Maynor's acquisition should help Stotts limit Lillard's minutes to the extent where he isn't fatigued as much. I am predicting a rise in Lillard's shooting percentage over the rest of the season with Maynor's acquisition.
If the playoffs started today, we would pick 13th, which is an issue as our 1st round pick (traded to Charlotte as part of the Gerald Wallace trade) is only top-12 protected. With such a small percent chance to make the playoffs, the time is nearing to see what the younger players can do. For all Blazer fans, myself included, this is a frustrating time of uncertainty. Losing more and more games could upset our marquee players, and team chemistry could take a hit. A sensitive issue, but a decision needs to be made for the benefit of the franchise. A playoff run would be welcome by most, but, the slim chance might lend us to keep our draft pick, which would benefit the team for the future.
The next 5-7 games win-loss record will determine the course we take. Stay tuned, it could be an exciting finish. If not, check back here often for more information on draft prospects (Or do that anyways :D)
Monday, February 25, 2013
Friday, February 22, 2013
Pre-Combine NFL Mock
The combine will surely elevate or depress many draft stocks for many players after this weekend's events at the NFL Draft Combine. Tests like the 40, bench press, vertical jump and Wonderlic test will all be used to rate players on speed, strength and smarts. Which tests matter the most? Varies by team and position. 40 matters a lot for RBs, WRs and CBs, the bench press for lineman, and the Wonderlic for everyone, but QBs especially. One of the key tests, though, will be the vertical jump test, as it measures lower body power the best. How might the draft look before all these tests?
Round 2
** pick from CHI (Marshall)
- KC- Luke Joekel OT/Texas A&M
- JAX- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M
- OAK- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan
- PHI- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah
- DET- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama
- CLE- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
- ARZ- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia
- BUF- Sharif Floyd DT/Florida
- NYJ- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU
- TEN- Chance Warmack G/Alabama
- SD- Jonathan Cooper G/North Carolina
- MIA- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee
- TB- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia
- CAR- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri
- NO- Dion Jordan DE/Oregon
- STL- Keenan Allen WR/California
- PIT- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia
- DAL- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma
- NYG- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas
- CHI- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame
- CIN- Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama
- STL*- Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB/UConn
- MIN- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
- IND- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State
- SEA- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia
- GB- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
- HOU- Barkevious Mingo DE/LSU
- DEN- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington
- NE- Alex Okafor DE/Texas
- ATL- Monte Ball RB/Wisconsin
- SF- Matt Elam S/Florida
- BAL- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina
Round 2
- JAX- Matt Barkley QB/USC
- KC- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor
- PHI- EJ Manuel QB/Florida State
- DET- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
- CIN*- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State
- ARZ- Dallas Thomas G-T/Tennessee
- NYJ- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama
- TEN- Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
- BUF- Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse
- MIA- Kyle Long G-T/Oregon
- TB- DJ Hayden CB/Houston
- CAR- Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech
- SD- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford
- STL- Barrett Jones C-G-T/Alabama
- DAL- Bennie Logan DT/LSU
- PIT- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee
- NYG- Margus Hunt DE/SMU
- CHI- Robert Woods WR/USC
- WAS- DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson
- MIN- Khaseem Greene OLB/Rutgers
- CIN- Eric Reid S/LSU
- MIA**- Jonathan Jenkins DT/Georgia
- GB- Giovani Bernard RB/North Carolina
- SEA- Jesse Williams DT/Alabama
- HOU- Logan Ryan CB/Rutgers
- DEN- Justin Pugh G/Syracuse
- NE- Markus Wheaton WR/Oregon State
- ATL- Jordan Reed TE/Florida
- SF- Larry Warford G/Kentucky
- BAL- Arthur Brown ILB/Kansas State
** pick from CHI (Marshall)
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Blazers Acquire Eric Maynor
The Blazers finally have some help in the backcourt. Thursday, right before the deadline, Portland and Oklahoma City finalized a trade that sends back-up PG and VCU hero Eric Maynor to Portland in exchange for the draft rights to Giorgos Printezis. This creates a 2.2 milion dollar trade exception for the Thunder, and opened up a roster spot to make way for Ronnie Brewer (acquired from NY). Ronnie Price will be waived to make room for Maynor on the Blazers' 15-man roster. Maynor tore his ACL last season, and has struggled this season coming back. He has averaged 4 points and 3 assists for his 4 year career, and has shown some ability as a shooter and finisher (40% FG, 34% 3's.) He hasn't been incredibly efficient this season, but a change in scenery, coupled with an improvement in playing time, should help Maynor boost his PER. Did I mention that Portland didn't give up a pick either? Maynor's deal expires after this season, and Portland will have the option of extending a 3.3 million dollard qualifying offer to him this summer to make him an RFA (Restricted Free Agent).
Grades: POR: A- OKC: B+, A win-win given the circumstances, and low risk associated with the deal.
Portland's depth for the rest of the season:
Grades: POR: A- OKC: B+, A win-win given the circumstances, and low risk associated with the deal.
Portland's depth for the rest of the season:
- Lillard/Maynor/Smith
- Matthews/Barton/Pavlovic/Williams (inj.)
- Batum/Claver
- Aldridge/Freeland/Babbitt
- Hickson/Leonard/Jeffries
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Two roads diverged in a wood...
With the trade deadline looming, the Blazers have some timely decisions to make. Currently in 9th place in the West (the Lakers are 10th, and surging). 3 games behind Houston, there are two paths the Blazers could choose to make:
1. Make a run for the playoffs. The talent may not take us far, but a playoff appearance is needed for the franchise.
2. Lose games. Our first round draft pick (traded to Charlotte) is top-12 protected, and the team needs a first round pick to help vault the team into a legitimate tier of Western Conference Contenders.
Staying where we are would involve missing the playoffs and losing our pick to the Bobcats. One could argue that the 2014 draft is stronger, and having a pick in that draft is more important, but the overall strength of the class is exaggerated because of the presence of Andrew Wiggins, who will be the #1 pick in 2014. A future superstar makes that draft look stronger than the 2013 draft without question. The 10-14 picks in each draft are often similar though, so picking this year vs. next year isn't as good of an argument to stand pat.
I could be persuaded either way, as the playoffs are appealing, but, if we fall out of contention, I would rather have our pick this year (the pick next year could be around pick 20 if we add the right talent). In addition, we will have a lot of cap space this summer, which is enough to pursue a near-max level player.
If we decide to make a push for the playoffs, we need to acquire a scoring guard to be our backup point guard. The team's depth is a major issue, and another guard option, preferably on an expiring contract would be very valuable. Some players on this list you may have seen in previous posts:
Any trade would likely add a protected first round draft choice, though would allow the team to add depth through further draft choices. Hickson may not be retained after this season anyways, so it might make sense to get some value while we can. (For the record Nikola Pekovic on a 4 year 40 million contract is appealing).
3 deals that could work?
Portland: Daniel Gibson, Rd. 1 pick (IND- Top 20 protected)
Indiana: JJ Hickson
Cleveland: Tyler Hansbrough
Why? Portland adds for the future, and gets a shooter off the bench who's bird rights we would acquire if we like him. Hickson upgrades the 4 slot over David West, and gives Indiana added rebounding West has lacked. Cleveland could use another big with Varejao out, and Hansbrough could be a nice option who could be resigned.
Portland: Timofey Mozgov, Rd. 1 pick (DEN- Top 20 protected)
Denver: JJ Hickson
Why? Hickson upgrades Denver's front line heading into the playoffs, and adds to an already deep team. Portland gets an average center who could be a good backup to Leonard for the rest of the season, and add a late rd. 1 pick to add depth.
Portland: Eric Maynor, Perry Jones, Rd. 1 pick (OKC- Top 20 protected)
Oklahoma City: JJ Hickson, future rd. 2 pick
Why? This is a prime year for OKC to win it all. A late pick won't help much, as they would already have a lottery pick from Toronto (via the Harden deal). Hickson is an upgrade as a 3rd big man over Collison and Thabeet. He could push OKC over the top. Portland gets young pieces in Maynor and Jones, plus the late pick to build for the future. Perry Jones would get the playing time he needs in Portland off the bench.
Which path should we take?
My heart says go for the playoffs, but my head says trade Hickson and keep our pick this year. With the trade deadline coming up, Portland fans everywhere (including our front office) need to decide which direction helps the franchise the most.
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1. Make a run for the playoffs. The talent may not take us far, but a playoff appearance is needed for the franchise.
2. Lose games. Our first round draft pick (traded to Charlotte) is top-12 protected, and the team needs a first round pick to help vault the team into a legitimate tier of Western Conference Contenders.
Staying where we are would involve missing the playoffs and losing our pick to the Bobcats. One could argue that the 2014 draft is stronger, and having a pick in that draft is more important, but the overall strength of the class is exaggerated because of the presence of Andrew Wiggins, who will be the #1 pick in 2014. A future superstar makes that draft look stronger than the 2013 draft without question. The 10-14 picks in each draft are often similar though, so picking this year vs. next year isn't as good of an argument to stand pat.
I could be persuaded either way, as the playoffs are appealing, but, if we fall out of contention, I would rather have our pick this year (the pick next year could be around pick 20 if we add the right talent). In addition, we will have a lot of cap space this summer, which is enough to pursue a near-max level player.
If we decide to make a push for the playoffs, we need to acquire a scoring guard to be our backup point guard. The team's depth is a major issue, and another guard option, preferably on an expiring contract would be very valuable. Some players on this list you may have seen in previous posts:
- Roddy Beaubois
- Sebastian Telfair
- Daniel Gibson
- Will Bynum
- Randy Foye
- Eric Maynor
Any trade would likely add a protected first round draft choice, though would allow the team to add depth through further draft choices. Hickson may not be retained after this season anyways, so it might make sense to get some value while we can. (For the record Nikola Pekovic on a 4 year 40 million contract is appealing).
3 deals that could work?
Portland: Daniel Gibson, Rd. 1 pick (IND- Top 20 protected)
Indiana: JJ Hickson
Cleveland: Tyler Hansbrough
Why? Portland adds for the future, and gets a shooter off the bench who's bird rights we would acquire if we like him. Hickson upgrades the 4 slot over David West, and gives Indiana added rebounding West has lacked. Cleveland could use another big with Varejao out, and Hansbrough could be a nice option who could be resigned.
Portland: Timofey Mozgov, Rd. 1 pick (DEN- Top 20 protected)
Denver: JJ Hickson
Why? Hickson upgrades Denver's front line heading into the playoffs, and adds to an already deep team. Portland gets an average center who could be a good backup to Leonard for the rest of the season, and add a late rd. 1 pick to add depth.
Portland: Eric Maynor, Perry Jones, Rd. 1 pick (OKC- Top 20 protected)
Oklahoma City: JJ Hickson, future rd. 2 pick
Why? This is a prime year for OKC to win it all. A late pick won't help much, as they would already have a lottery pick from Toronto (via the Harden deal). Hickson is an upgrade as a 3rd big man over Collison and Thabeet. He could push OKC over the top. Portland gets young pieces in Maynor and Jones, plus the late pick to build for the future. Perry Jones would get the playing time he needs in Portland off the bench.
Which path should we take?
My heart says go for the playoffs, but my head says trade Hickson and keep our pick this year. With the trade deadline coming up, Portland fans everywhere (including our front office) need to decide which direction helps the franchise the most.
Follow @ZRey12 on twitter!
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Updated NBA Mock Draft
- Charlotte- Shabazz Muhammad SG-SF/UCLA
- Orlando- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
- Washington- Alex Len C/Maryland
- Cleveland- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
- Phoenix- Cody Zeller C/Indiana
- New Orleans- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
- Sacramento- Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky
- Oklahoma City (TOR)- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
- Minnesota- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh
- Detroit- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
- Dallas- Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State
- Philadelphia- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
- Phoenix (LAL)- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
- Charlotte (POR)- Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky
- Milwaukee- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
- Atlanta (HOU)- Rudy Gobert C/France
- Boston- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
- Utah- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
- Atlanta- CJ Leslie F/NC State
- Brooklyn- Allen Crabbe SG/California
- Utah (GS)- Myck Kabongo PG/Texas
- Chicago- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
- Indiana- Andre Roberson F/Colorado
- Denver- Russ Smith G/Louisville
- Minnesota (MEM)- James McAdoo PF/North Carolina
- New York- Dario Saric F/Croatia
- LA Clippers- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
- Cleveland (MIA)- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
- Oklahoma City- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
- San Antonio- Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia Round 2
- Oklahoma City (CHA)- Doug McDermott SF/Creighton
- Cleveland (ORL)- Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan
- Washington- Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas
- Cleveland- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
- Phoenix- LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State
- Philadelphia (NO)- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
- Sacramento- CJ Wilcox SG/Washington
- Toronto- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
- Portland (MIN)- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
- Detroit- Elias Harris SF/Gonzaga
- Dallas- Mike Moser PF/UNLV
- Philadelphia- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
- LA Lakers- Christian Watford F/Indiana
- Denver (POR)- Patric Young C/Florida
- Milwaukee- Richard Howell PF/NC State
- Atlanta (HOU)- Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State
- Portland (BOS)- Solomon Hill F/Arizona
- Utah- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
- Atlanta- Seth Curry G/Duke
- Phoenix (BKN)- Aziz N'Diaye C/Washington
- Denver (GS)- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
- Chicago- Zeke Marshall C/Akron
- Indiana- Leo Westermann G/France
- Phoenix (DEN)- Alex Abrines G/Spain
- Memphis- Augusto Lima PF/Brazil
- Washington (NYK)- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State
- LA Clippers- CJ Fair F/Syracuse
- Miami- Michael Snaer SG/Florida State
- Minnesota (OKC)- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro
- San Antonio- Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota
Underclassmen not mentioned (Who are being touted as possible first round picks) are left out because they didn't make the first round, and only a few bubble picks will declare.
Saturday, February 9, 2013
College Picks for Feb. 9
Today there are 19 ranked teams playing in games today. There has been so many upsets over the last few weeks, I decided I should put on my picking hat and pick the winners of all of today's games! Here are the best games of the day (All of the ranked teams included, home team in bold):
#2 Florida 77 Miss. St 54
#3 Michigan 69 Wisconsin 56
#5 Kansas 67 Oklahoma 63
#6 Gonzaga 80 Loyola Marymount 61
North Carolina 74 #9 Miami 73
#11 Louisville 75 #25 Notre Dame 62
#12 Michigan State 66 Purdue 65
Iowa State 70 #13 Kansas State 65
#14 Butler 76 George Washington 60
UNLV 80 #15 New Mexico 71
#16 Creighton 68 Illinois State 55
#17 Cincinnati 58 #23 Pittsburgh 56
#19 Oregon 66 Utah 56
#20 Georgetown 68 Rutgers 64
Ole Miss 68 #21 Missouri 62
#22 Oklahoma State 76 Texas 66
#24 Marquette 71 Depaul 62
Arizona State 76 Stanford 69
UCLA 82 Washington State 65
Kentucky 80 Auburn 59
#2 Florida 77 Miss. St 54
#3 Michigan 69 Wisconsin 56
#5 Kansas 67 Oklahoma 63
#6 Gonzaga 80 Loyola Marymount 61
North Carolina 74 #9 Miami 73
#11 Louisville 75 #25 Notre Dame 62
#12 Michigan State 66 Purdue 65
Iowa State 70 #13 Kansas State 65
#14 Butler 76 George Washington 60
UNLV 80 #15 New Mexico 71
#16 Creighton 68 Illinois State 55
#17 Cincinnati 58 #23 Pittsburgh 56
#19 Oregon 66 Utah 56
#20 Georgetown 68 Rutgers 64
Ole Miss 68 #21 Missouri 62
#22 Oklahoma State 76 Texas 66
#24 Marquette 71 Depaul 62
Arizona State 76 Stanford 69
UCLA 82 Washington State 65
Kentucky 80 Auburn 59
Friday, February 8, 2013
NCAA Tournament Picture by Conferences
It is already February! March Madness is rapidly approaching, and many teams have locked thierselves into the postseason tournament, others are found on the bubble, and others now need to win conference tournaments to get in. So who will make the field of 68? These are the teams best positioned as of today (Conference Tourney Champions always make field, predictions in bold):
Major Conferences:
ACC:
Locks: Duke, Miami
Should make it: North Carolina, North Carolina State,
Bubble: Virginia, Florida State, Maryland
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Should make it: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Bubble: St. Johns, Connecticut, Villanova
Big 10
Locks: Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Should make it: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bubble: Illinois
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Should make it: Baylor
Bubble: Iowa State, Oklahoma
Pac 12
Locks: Arizona, Oregon
Should make it: UCLA, Arizona State
Bubble: Colorado, Stanford, Cal
SEC
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Should make it: Ole Miss, Missouri
Bubble: Alabama, Arkansas
Total:
Locks: 17
Should make it: 12
Bubble: 14
Mid-Majors:
America East:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Stony Brook)
Atlantic 10
Locks: Butler, VCU
Should make it: Saint Louis
Bubble: La Salle, Charlotte, Xavier
Atlantic Sun
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Mercer)
Big Sky:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Weber State)
Big South:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: UNC-Ashville)
Big West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Long Beach State)
Colonial:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Delaware)
Conference USA
Locks:
Should make it: Memphis
Bubble:
Great West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Texas Pan-American)
Horizon:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Detroit)
Ivy League:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Harvard)
MAAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Iona)
Mid American:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Akron, Ohio
MEAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Norfolk State)
Missouri Valley:
Locks: Creighton, Wichita State
Should make it: Indiana State
Bubble:
Mountain West:
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Should make it: Colorado State
Bubble: Air Force
Northeast:
Conference Champion Only (Prediction: Bryant)
Ohio Valley:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Belmont, Murray State
Patriot:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Bucknell, Lehigh
Southern:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Davidson)
Southland:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Stephen F. Austin)
SWAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Southern)
Summit:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: South Dakota State)
Sun Belt:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast:
Locks: Gonzaga
Should make it: St. Mary's
Bubble: BYU
WAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Louisiana Tech)
Total:
Locks: 8
Should make it: 5
Bubble: 12
As one can see, there are many quality teams searching for admittance into the NCAA Tournament. Not all of the teams projected will win their conferences, and, there will be a few conferences where an unlikely winner will knock an at-large team into the NIT (Ex: BYU most likely won't make the tourney, but if they win their conference tourney, they will knock an at-large team out, as Gonzaga and St. Mary's will both still make the field.)
Much too early Final 4 picks: Indiana, Michigan, Louisville, Gonzaga
Much too early upset teams to go deep: VCU, Middle Tennessee State, NC State, Colorado State
Much too early picks to get upset early: Miami, Kansas State, Missouri, Creighton
There is a long way to go until Selection Sunday. Expect lots of change by way of injuries, momentum late in the season, and unexpected conference tournament wins. I am excited to see how it plays out!
Major Conferences:
ACC:
Locks: Duke, Miami
Should make it: North Carolina, North Carolina State,
Bubble: Virginia, Florida State, Maryland
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette
Should make it: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Bubble: St. Johns, Connecticut, Villanova
Big 10
Locks: Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
Should make it: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bubble: Illinois
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Should make it: Baylor
Bubble: Iowa State, Oklahoma
Pac 12
Locks: Arizona, Oregon
Should make it: UCLA, Arizona State
Bubble: Colorado, Stanford, Cal
SEC
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Should make it: Ole Miss, Missouri
Bubble: Alabama, Arkansas
Total:
Locks: 17
Should make it: 12
Bubble: 14
Mid-Majors:
America East:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Stony Brook)
Atlantic 10
Locks: Butler, VCU
Should make it: Saint Louis
Bubble: La Salle, Charlotte, Xavier
Atlantic Sun
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Mercer)
Big Sky:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Weber State)
Big South:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: UNC-Ashville)
Big West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Long Beach State)
Colonial:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Delaware)
Conference USA
Locks:
Should make it: Memphis
Bubble:
Great West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Texas Pan-American)
Horizon:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Detroit)
Ivy League:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Harvard)
MAAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Iona)
Mid American:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Akron, Ohio
MEAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Norfolk State)
Missouri Valley:
Locks: Creighton, Wichita State
Should make it: Indiana State
Bubble:
Mountain West:
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Should make it: Colorado State
Bubble: Air Force
Northeast:
Conference Champion Only (Prediction: Bryant)
Ohio Valley:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Belmont, Murray State
Patriot:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Bucknell, Lehigh
Southern:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Davidson)
Southland:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Stephen F. Austin)
SWAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Southern)
Summit:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: South Dakota State)
Sun Belt:
Locks:
Should make it:
Bubble: Middle Tennessee State
West Coast:
Locks: Gonzaga
Should make it: St. Mary's
Bubble: BYU
WAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction: Louisiana Tech)
Total:
Locks: 8
Should make it: 5
Bubble: 12
As one can see, there are many quality teams searching for admittance into the NCAA Tournament. Not all of the teams projected will win their conferences, and, there will be a few conferences where an unlikely winner will knock an at-large team into the NIT (Ex: BYU most likely won't make the tourney, but if they win their conference tourney, they will knock an at-large team out, as Gonzaga and St. Mary's will both still make the field.)
Much too early Final 4 picks: Indiana, Michigan, Louisville, Gonzaga
Much too early upset teams to go deep: VCU, Middle Tennessee State, NC State, Colorado State
Much too early picks to get upset early: Miami, Kansas State, Missouri, Creighton
There is a long way to go until Selection Sunday. Expect lots of change by way of injuries, momentum late in the season, and unexpected conference tournament wins. I am excited to see how it plays out!
Updated NBA Draft Big Board
In the last couple of weeks, there has been a lot of good college basketball played. Some players have dramatically helped their draft stocks (See: Oladipo, Victor), and others have hurt their's (See: Carter-Williams, Michael). The grade scale has remained the same (see previous posts for scale) and I have written a brief analysis of each player. Here is how the board currently looks:
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March Madness is fast approaching, acquaint yourself with prospects in advance.
- Shabazz Muhammad G-F/UCLA- Muhammad is still #1 on my board. A versatile wing, he can shoot, slash, rebound and play defense. His biggest knock is his use of his right hand, but, if that is his only weakness he could very well go #1.
- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky- Noel is the best interior defender in college basketball. He blocks shots and rebounds at a very high rate, but is very raw offensively. His offense will get better, and he has All-Star potential based off of his defensive acumen.
- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas- If a team wants the best scorer in the draft, look no further than McLemore. He is a very good athlete, and has a good stroke from 3. He hasn't taken over late in games, which will be necessary for Kansas to make a deep tourney run.
- Alex Len C/Maryland- There is a drop-off from McLemore to Len, but Len can be a very good center in the NBA. At 7'1, he is athletic, has a solid post up game down low and up high, and is an above average rebounder. He needs more touches.
- Cody Zeller C/Indiana- Zeller is a bit of an enigma to me. He is a beast in the college game, but may not have skills that transfer to the NBA due to his athleticism. He is a very smart player, however, and should still be a starter in the league one day.
- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown- Porter does everything well, but nothing great. He can shoot a solid percentage, rebound the ball well, and defend good opponents. One day he could be Ron Artest without the crazy.
- Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky- Poythress is still at 7 on my board, but he is barely hanging on. He hasn't shown a desire to be great in college, and must be more consistent. His athleticism and basketball IQ scream lottery pick, but his production isn't there. He might need another year at UK.
- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh- McCollum's foot will heal. He isn't a true point guard either. Despite his flaws, he has the look of a very good NBA scorer, and he is a good ball handler and rebounder, too. He has potential to improve, even as a senior, and a team who selects him will be glad they did.
- Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State- Smart does everything well, but shoot. His court vision is among the best in college, and his 6'4" frame screams NBA. Best case scenario could be Jason Kidd, who also wasn't a great shooter during his first few years. Smart has farther to go though.
- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor- Austin has unbelievable height, and will be successful in the pros if he can use it to his advantage. Despite being 7'0" (or even 7'1" he is listed some places), he is not a center, but a PF, and will rely on a high post game to be successful. He has to add some strength, and Austin will be a commodity on draft day.
- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana- Oladipo is soaring up my draft board. He has definite starter potential, and is the best perimeter defender in the draft. He has proven this year that he can score on his own, and hit an efficient number of outside jump shots. Oh and he is a great athlete too.
- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV- Bennett is an undersized 4 man, but a very talented one. He rebounds well and can score out to 20 feet. His athleticism will not be great at the next level, but continued improvement could lead to an Elton Brand like career. Without it he could be Derrick Williams.
- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky- Goodwin looked a lot better to start the season. He has struggled in conference, and needs to get back to his aggressive offensive play. His first step is explosive, but he is settling for 3s and deferring to teammates. He is the closest thing UK has to a go to guy. It is his time to shine.
- Trey Burke PG/Michigan- Burke has moved his way into the #2 PG spot on my board. His court vision is outstanding, and he shows a nice ability to find shots for both himself and for teammates. He is only 6'0", but he could wind up being the starting PG for a team someday.
- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse- Carter-Williams has faded after a hot start too. He is struggling with his shooting, and his assist numbers have come down a lot. At 6'6", he shows potential as a big PG, with long arms and quick feet. Many people are saying he could be what was expected of Shaun Livingston.
- Rudy Gobert C/France- Gobert has a 7'9" wingspan. (I'll pause so you can read that again) He shows tremendous potential as a defensive center, though is incredibly raw at this point. Offensively his range extends about 4 feet. But, hey, if Bismack Biyombo can go in the top 10, why can't Gobert?
- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke- Plumlee won't be a starter at the next level. He is a good athlete who can rebound and score some in the post, and has a constant motor. Think Tyler Hansbrough.
- Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky- Cauley-Stein would also benefit by going back to school. He has shown moments of potential, but is too raw to make an impact on the NBA yet. If he declares, a patient team could reap benefits as Denver and Charlotte have done with Koufus and Mullens.
- CJ Leslie PF/NC State- Leslie is a great athlete, and has shown a much improved game, but I still don't think he is a starter at the next level. Dante Cunningham is a good comparison. He has potential to be a solid contributor, but he has the game of a PF in the body of a SF.
- James McAdoo PF/North Carolina- McAdoo has severely hurt his draft stock by coming back to school. He isn't the athlete once thought, and has a tough time scoring against athletic opponents. As a solid big-man off the bench at the next level, he would be worth a late rd. 1 pick.
- Russ Smith G/Louisville- You could tell me Russ Smith belongs in the second round and I would see where you were coming from. However, I think a team who takes him will fall in love. He is blindingly quick in transition, and is a good defender. As a first guard off the bench, he could give a scoring punch. Has to improve guard skills though.
- Andre Roberson PF/Colorado- Roberson would be higher if he had any offensive game. He is a below average shooter, and cannot create his own shot inside. He is an average defender, and an unbelievable rebounder. If he can develop any outside shot, he could become a #5 starter.
- Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas- Mitchell has been disappointing as well this year, and hasn't dominated like his talent suggests. A great athlete, I expected to see improvement with scoring and rebounds in particular, but he hasn't progressed. A team could take him in the first based off of potential.
- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia- Karasev reminds me of a taller Rudy Fernandez, though a lesser athlete. He might not come over right away, but in a few years he could really help a playoff team. He is the best shooter in this year's international class.
- Glenn Robinson III F/Michigan- Robinson should return to school, as he could become a lottery pick next year if he improves his offensive game. He is a great athlete and good rebounder, but has to improve his scoring and on ball defense.
- Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia- Gobert and Karasev are higher on the board, but Nedovic is my favorite international player in this class. He is a combo guard who excels getting to the rim, and has shown an improved outside shot. If he can develop better court vision, and improve his guard skills, he could be the next Goran Dragic.
- CJ Wilcox SG/Washington- Wilcox can shoot the ball, and is a good enough athlete to become a better defender. At the next level, Courtney Lee could be a good comparison.
- Dario Saric SF/Croatia- Saric is a raw prospect, but shows a lot of potential as a tall point forward. Mentally, he has some maturing to do, and needs to improve his BBall IQ, but a team keeping him overseas could reap a lot of benefits. He could be the first Euro off the board, easily.
- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois- Paul has the look of a scorer, as he has been the focal point of opposing defenses for the past few years. He doesn't project as a starter at the next level, but as a sixth man he offers value. His size for the position is very good as well.
- Jeff Withey C/Kansas- I am torn over whether I like Withey or Dieng more. Both are centers who rebound well, and protect the rim with vigor. Dieng will probably be a better player in a few years, but is more raw now. A contender could like Withey's ability to step in right away as a backup center.
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March Madness is fast approaching, acquaint yourself with prospects in advance.
Monday, February 4, 2013
NBA Trades?
Today (Monday), ESPN ran a 5v5 segment regarding trades that make the most sense involving players who have been rumored for a move. The players who the talks revolved around were:
Kevin Garnett
Paul Pierce
Pau Gasol
Josh Smith
JJ Redick
Garnett has a no-trade clause, and has 2 years and 23 million left on his contract after this season, despite the fact that he will turn 37 this May. For some contenders, he may be an appealing option, as he could help the team stay relevant. For others, I fail to see a great fit. The best example of a poor fit, in my opinion, is the Clippers (Where Garnett has been rumored most). The Clippers' current frontcourt in Griffin and Garnett compliments each other well, and Bledsoe, as the team's 3rd best guard (behind Paul and Crawford) should be retained if Paul leaves. The deal is just too risky. A deal that makes sense would be with San Antonio, another veteran team who's title window is closing.
Boston gets: Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson
San Antonio gets: Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry
Why Boston does it? With Rondo out, the Celtics won't advance far anyways. Leonard and Splitter offer young pieces to add to Rondo and Green, and Jackson's exp. contract gives them added cap flexibility this summer.
Why SA does it? Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are aging, whether the signs show it or not. In a playoff series, the aging could show more, and seasoned vets like Garnett and Terry would make the team a legitimate threat for the title this year.
Paul Pierce, unlike KG, does not have a no-trade clause. After this season, Pierce has only 1 year left at 15 million on his contract. I highly doubt that they trade both KG and Pierce, but, if they choose Pierce, there are teams that would be interested. Again, the Clippers have been mentioned as a trade partner, though I doubt they will be willing to give up Bledsoe for a noticably aging Pierce (though he would be a significant upgrade over Caron Butler and Lamar Odom). A team that could use Pierce? The Sacramento Kings. A deal like this could work:
Boston gets: Tyreke Evans, Aaron Brooks, Jimmer Fredette, Francisco Garcia
Sacramento gets: Paul Pierce, Fab Melo, Leandro Barbosa
Why Boston does it? As mentioned with Garnett's trade, the Celtics cannot win a playoff series without Rondo. Adding Tyreke Evans could be beneficial as he isn't the right fit for Sacramento, and could be let go if Boston doesn't work out. He has lots of potential though. Brooks offers a more pure PG, whereas Avery Bradley is better suited playing at the 2. Fredette is a solid shooter, but doesn't offer much else. In a backcourt with Lee or Bradley, his defensive and athletic shortcomings could be hidden. Garcia has a team option that will be declined. A better future outlook for Boston.
Why Sacramento does it? The team is moving to Seattle, and a year of Paul Pierce could help the franchise by giving them a household name to begin relocation with. A 2 man game with Cousins could be deadly on the court, and help with Cousins' shortcomings off the court. Melo is a throw-in that will be developed and Barbosa offers another guard to cope with the departures of Brooks, Fredette and Garcia. The upside for next season outweighs the risks of taking on salary amidst a relocation.
Pau Gasol is lost in Los Angeles. D'Antoni has not used him properly, as he needs a stretch 4 to run his offense. Earl Clark has been decent in the role, but has led to Gasol's demise. Houston has desperately been looking at Josh Smith, though Gasol provides a better fit, though he will cost a team 19 million dollars next year (the last on his contract). If Houston acquires him, his salary would come off the books in time for both Asik and Lin's poison pill salaries to kick in. However, Gasol's salary would likely be too big for Houston to acquire without giving up. A team that could work? The Bucks. Here is an offer that could work:
Lakers get: Ersan Ilyasova, Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
Bucks get: Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace
Why LA does it? Ilyasova gives D'Antoni his needed stretch 4 and outside shooter. With Ilyasova, his offense would have no excuse not to work. Mbah A Moute offers a younger, more athletic defender, though does not offer much offense. Udrih and Dalembert are solid pieces for a playoff run, and have contracts that expire after the season. Dalembert would make up for the loss of Jordan Hill.
Why Milwaukee does it? The Bucks find the team in 7th place in the East. If this is to be a season for a playoff run, Gasol would give them an interior presence that is much needed. World Peace isn't quite the athlete he once was, but could add lots of toughness to the Bucks frontcourt, plus he can hit the occasional 3. With other teams down in the East, this could be Milwaukee's shot to go deep in the playoffs.
Josh Smith is obviously done in Atlanta, and Ferry should deal him for assets at the deadline. The odds of getting Dwight Howard, and thus appeasing Smith are close to none. Young talent could be had, though Smith's recent request to be a max-paid player might throw up some red flags. He is, at best, a #2 option on a team, and should not be paid like a max player. That said, teams will still be interested. Just as Houston didn't have enough cap space for Gasol, they would have enough to make a run at Smith, who makes more than 6 million less. Houston could make an attractive offer of:
Atlanta gets: Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Donatus Motiejunas, Royce White, 2 rd. 2 picks
Houston gets: Josh Smith
Why Atlanta does it? They get assets up front to build depth around Al Horford. Patterson is a starter-level player, Aldrich is a capable backup center, and both Motiejunas and White have potential (and White could use a change in scenery... though it's on him this time if it doesn't work). They also gain cap space to make a play for a notable free agent.
Why Houston does it? For one, Smith's expiring deal, coupled with the young talent they give up, lead Atlanta to not get a first round pick in the deal, rather 2 2nd rounders. Smith's play is too tempting to pass up. A front line of Asik and Smith is fantastic defensively, and would make up for the defensive shortcomings of their star in Harden and PG in Lin.
Finally, JJ Redick is a hot commodity among playoff teams, as adding shooters is very important for winning playoff series. He is an average defender and a good playmaker at the 2 spot, which helps increase his value. He should earn a contract earning about 8 million per year for his next contract, though, which some may view as an overpay. Teams who could be interested. Indiana?
Pacers get: JJ Redick
Magic get: DJ Augustin, Gerald Green, lottery protected rd. 1 pick
Why Indiana does it? Spacing the floor is key for their offense, and none do it better than the former Duke G Redick. The best defensive team in the league needs a shooting guard, and a 3-wing tandem of Redick, George and Granger is impressive. He could be the last piece to a deep playoff run.
Why the Magic do it? The Magic are in rebuilding mode. The first round pick will help the process, and Green and Augustin both showed potential last season, though have struggled this season. The move could be a risk, but the Magic would do well getting something for Redick, who will earn more money elsewhere this summer anyways.
Kevin Garnett
Paul Pierce
Pau Gasol
Josh Smith
JJ Redick
Garnett has a no-trade clause, and has 2 years and 23 million left on his contract after this season, despite the fact that he will turn 37 this May. For some contenders, he may be an appealing option, as he could help the team stay relevant. For others, I fail to see a great fit. The best example of a poor fit, in my opinion, is the Clippers (Where Garnett has been rumored most). The Clippers' current frontcourt in Griffin and Garnett compliments each other well, and Bledsoe, as the team's 3rd best guard (behind Paul and Crawford) should be retained if Paul leaves. The deal is just too risky. A deal that makes sense would be with San Antonio, another veteran team who's title window is closing.
Boston gets: Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson
San Antonio gets: Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry
Why Boston does it? With Rondo out, the Celtics won't advance far anyways. Leonard and Splitter offer young pieces to add to Rondo and Green, and Jackson's exp. contract gives them added cap flexibility this summer.
Why SA does it? Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are aging, whether the signs show it or not. In a playoff series, the aging could show more, and seasoned vets like Garnett and Terry would make the team a legitimate threat for the title this year.
Paul Pierce, unlike KG, does not have a no-trade clause. After this season, Pierce has only 1 year left at 15 million on his contract. I highly doubt that they trade both KG and Pierce, but, if they choose Pierce, there are teams that would be interested. Again, the Clippers have been mentioned as a trade partner, though I doubt they will be willing to give up Bledsoe for a noticably aging Pierce (though he would be a significant upgrade over Caron Butler and Lamar Odom). A team that could use Pierce? The Sacramento Kings. A deal like this could work:
Boston gets: Tyreke Evans, Aaron Brooks, Jimmer Fredette, Francisco Garcia
Sacramento gets: Paul Pierce, Fab Melo, Leandro Barbosa
Why Boston does it? As mentioned with Garnett's trade, the Celtics cannot win a playoff series without Rondo. Adding Tyreke Evans could be beneficial as he isn't the right fit for Sacramento, and could be let go if Boston doesn't work out. He has lots of potential though. Brooks offers a more pure PG, whereas Avery Bradley is better suited playing at the 2. Fredette is a solid shooter, but doesn't offer much else. In a backcourt with Lee or Bradley, his defensive and athletic shortcomings could be hidden. Garcia has a team option that will be declined. A better future outlook for Boston.
Why Sacramento does it? The team is moving to Seattle, and a year of Paul Pierce could help the franchise by giving them a household name to begin relocation with. A 2 man game with Cousins could be deadly on the court, and help with Cousins' shortcomings off the court. Melo is a throw-in that will be developed and Barbosa offers another guard to cope with the departures of Brooks, Fredette and Garcia. The upside for next season outweighs the risks of taking on salary amidst a relocation.
Pau Gasol is lost in Los Angeles. D'Antoni has not used him properly, as he needs a stretch 4 to run his offense. Earl Clark has been decent in the role, but has led to Gasol's demise. Houston has desperately been looking at Josh Smith, though Gasol provides a better fit, though he will cost a team 19 million dollars next year (the last on his contract). If Houston acquires him, his salary would come off the books in time for both Asik and Lin's poison pill salaries to kick in. However, Gasol's salary would likely be too big for Houston to acquire without giving up. A team that could work? The Bucks. Here is an offer that could work:
Lakers get: Ersan Ilyasova, Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
Bucks get: Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace
Why LA does it? Ilyasova gives D'Antoni his needed stretch 4 and outside shooter. With Ilyasova, his offense would have no excuse not to work. Mbah A Moute offers a younger, more athletic defender, though does not offer much offense. Udrih and Dalembert are solid pieces for a playoff run, and have contracts that expire after the season. Dalembert would make up for the loss of Jordan Hill.
Why Milwaukee does it? The Bucks find the team in 7th place in the East. If this is to be a season for a playoff run, Gasol would give them an interior presence that is much needed. World Peace isn't quite the athlete he once was, but could add lots of toughness to the Bucks frontcourt, plus he can hit the occasional 3. With other teams down in the East, this could be Milwaukee's shot to go deep in the playoffs.
Josh Smith is obviously done in Atlanta, and Ferry should deal him for assets at the deadline. The odds of getting Dwight Howard, and thus appeasing Smith are close to none. Young talent could be had, though Smith's recent request to be a max-paid player might throw up some red flags. He is, at best, a #2 option on a team, and should not be paid like a max player. That said, teams will still be interested. Just as Houston didn't have enough cap space for Gasol, they would have enough to make a run at Smith, who makes more than 6 million less. Houston could make an attractive offer of:
Atlanta gets: Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Donatus Motiejunas, Royce White, 2 rd. 2 picks
Houston gets: Josh Smith
Why Atlanta does it? They get assets up front to build depth around Al Horford. Patterson is a starter-level player, Aldrich is a capable backup center, and both Motiejunas and White have potential (and White could use a change in scenery... though it's on him this time if it doesn't work). They also gain cap space to make a play for a notable free agent.
Why Houston does it? For one, Smith's expiring deal, coupled with the young talent they give up, lead Atlanta to not get a first round pick in the deal, rather 2 2nd rounders. Smith's play is too tempting to pass up. A front line of Asik and Smith is fantastic defensively, and would make up for the defensive shortcomings of their star in Harden and PG in Lin.
Finally, JJ Redick is a hot commodity among playoff teams, as adding shooters is very important for winning playoff series. He is an average defender and a good playmaker at the 2 spot, which helps increase his value. He should earn a contract earning about 8 million per year for his next contract, though, which some may view as an overpay. Teams who could be interested. Indiana?
Pacers get: JJ Redick
Magic get: DJ Augustin, Gerald Green, lottery protected rd. 1 pick
Why Indiana does it? Spacing the floor is key for their offense, and none do it better than the former Duke G Redick. The best defensive team in the league needs a shooting guard, and a 3-wing tandem of Redick, George and Granger is impressive. He could be the last piece to a deep playoff run.
Why the Magic do it? The Magic are in rebuilding mode. The first round pick will help the process, and Green and Augustin both showed potential last season, though have struggled this season. The move could be a risk, but the Magic would do well getting something for Redick, who will earn more money elsewhere this summer anyways.
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