Western Conference
1 OKC vs. 5 MEM- Oklahoma comes in after struggling to play their best basketball. The injury to Russell Westbrook was catastrophic to their title chances, as Kevin Durant has not shown that he can be a player to lead a team to a title by himself. Don't get me wrong- he'll probably average 30 points a game in this series, and is a top 3 player in the NBA. But let's be brutally honest here: Who else is going to score the ball for the Thunder? Ibaka can give you 8-12 tops. Martin can get 20 if he shoots really well. Reggie Jackson has scored a lot on way too many shots. If you have to rely on Perkins, Sefolosha and Collison to score the team might be in trouble. I know he hasn't had much playing time this season, but Perry Jones III could be an intriguing option to throw out there for 8 minutes a game. He is long, a capable defender, and can score in multiple ways. I like his potential to score some needed points off of the bench. This series will come down to Memphis' defensive effectiveness. Tony Allen should see time on Durant- but he gives up a lot of size. Tayshaun Prince is the likely matchup. Marc Gasol is the best big man in the series, and should be the focal point of the Memphis offense. Randolph should see touches too. If Z-Bo and Marc can score 35 a game between the two of them, they will have a hard time not staying competitive. Conley should control the game well. Will Memphis be able to score from the wing and guard spots? I seriously cannot believe I am saying this, but the injury to Westbrook was too much to overcome. Prediction: Memphis in 6
2 SA vs. 6 GS- Golden State had a hell of a series despite missing their all-star in David Lee for most of the series (he played a minute in game 6). Stephen Curry is proving game after game why he is the most feared shooter in the NBA, and has also been good as a playmaker. Jarrett Jack has been good as a secondary ball handler- doing essentially everything they hoped Monta Ellis would do, without taking 25 shots a game. Andrew Bogut has finally started playing like the center GS thought they were getting in the trade. His 14 point 21 rebound performance in game 6 was fantastic, and will have the Spurs frontcourt on notice. To win the series, Golden State will have to shoot 40% from 3 at minimum, needing efficient performances from Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes especially. Thompson is the x-factor for Golden State. The Spurs coasted their way through round one- an easy sweep of the supposed-to-be-dominant-Lakers. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the way, and Ginobili looked like the threat he has been known to be (Manu has aged the worst). The Spurs have capable role players at every position, with Kawhi Leonard providing defense, rebounding, and a high motor at the 3, Danny Green hitting 3's and playing defense at the 2, and big men Tiago Splitter, Dajuan Blair and the Red Mamba Matt Bonner. Gary Neal has been great too. Denver was praised by many (myself included) for being the deepest team in the league. San Antonio quietly has a team that could be regarded as the deepest, which will make them a very tough out for Golden State. Prediction: San Antonio in 5
Eastern Conference:
1 MIA vs. 5 CHI- This series would be so much more compelling to watch with Derrick Rose. Supposedly cleared by doctors, he is having a mental block to coming back to the game, citing a lack of muscle memory. The fact that he is cleared by doctors tells me that he is not at risk to be injured again, and that only his performance will be slightly diminished due to his lack of mental readiness. What Rose needs to realize is that 70% of MVP Derrick Rose is better than none. If he truly is at risk to face another injury he should sit out, but he is hurting fans, teammates, coaches and the NBA by sitting out. Rose aside, this is still a good team. Joakim Noah dominated Brook Lopez in the first round, and Miami does not have a capable center to put on him offensively. He could average 17/10/6 easily. Defensively, he probably guards Bosh, which will make it tougher for him to score. Expect Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng (can he go?) to split time on James, and Hinrich (if healthy) to defend Wade. The Heat look like the team to beat. Fresh off his 4th MVP, LeBron James has played very well. Bosh and Wade will get theirs, and Allen will hurt Chicago on the wing. Too many weapons for this Bulls team to defend. The Bucks were less than a speed bump in their path to the Eastern Conference Finals, I expect the Bulls to be more difficult, but in the end the result will be the same. Prediction: Miami in 4 *Note- If Rose comes back, I will update this post
2 NY vs. 3 IND- The Knicks beat a good Boston team, but did not play their best basketball in the process. Their isolation style was exposed, and, when Melo and JR Smith do not make shots it is very tough for this team to score. When they do score, watch out. Smith is going to make a lot of money this summer, and can increase his future salary more with a bigger series. He is in a position to be the top FA SG this summer. The Knicks have players who can play defense- when they want to. Felton is capable, Anthony can defend, but where they excel is with Shumpert and Chandler. They will give fits to Paul George and Roy Hibbert. If I were New York, I would try to stretch the defense with Smith, Melo and Novak in the game for extended periods of time. Indiana is a very good defensive squad as well. Hibbert picked up his game as the season went along, George Hill is a good pickpocket, and David West is tough even with his diminished lateral quickness. Paul George has emerged as a star, and will make many more All-Star appearances. Indiana's team is deeper than New York, and can force the Knicks to take bad shot after bad shot. Pacers/Knicks is a fantastic playoff rivalry that has been documented in history as dominance by New York. What was Miller vs. Ewing is not George vs. Anthony. Can Indiana find glory? The pick: Indiana in 6
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