Ask anyone who follows Portland about the team's biggest need. The most likely answer? A defensive minded center who can block shots and play above the rim. I tend to agree to an extent, as defensive-minded shot blockers are always incredibly valuable. Serge Ibaka comes to mind as a very good shot blocking post who would fit well next to Aldridge- He led the league with over 3 blocks per game this year. Other similarly defensive minded players like Amir Johnson (who would be an amazing fit- I cannot stress how amazing- in Portland's current system next to LA), JaVale McGee, and Larry Sanders, to name a few, would be excellent fits.
According to 82games.com, the Blazers starting unit in 2012-13 of Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge and Hickson had a winning percentage for the 1143 minutes they were on the court together of 43.8%. For a starting lineup that was generally praised as being solid when compared to many other teams' starting 5's, this winning percentage is somewhat shocking. The starting unit we had scored 1.07 points per possession (ppp) and gave up 1.08 ppp. This is, at best, average, and, likely factored into the lesser winning percentage. When you sub in Hickson for the 7'1" Meyers Leonard, the defensive ppp goes up, to 1.10, which should not shock anyone. The silver lining, however, is that the offensive ppp went up to 1.19. We outscored opponents by 24 points, compared to a -29 +/- for the starting rotation, with Leonard on the court instead of Hickson. The winning percentage in the minutes with Leonard subbed for Hickson was 63.6%- a nearly 20% increase! For a team rooted in analytics (See the analytics issue of ESPN magazine for an extended look at Portland's analytics), it is somewhat surprising that the lineup with Leonard wasn't seen more often. Sure the defense was worse, but the offense was a lot better.
And now, I am going to shock you! There is one player who, when subbed in for both Leonard and Hickson (assume the same starters for the rest of the spots), ups our winning percentage to 72.2%, ups our offensive rating to 1.26 ppp and drops our defensive rating to where we only gave up 0.97 ppp. In the 80 minutes with this rotation- a very small sample size I know- the Blazers outscored opponents by 71 points. All of these numbers are fantastic. So why didn't we use this lineup more often? The player I am talking about (if you didn't realize it by the title of the article) is Luke Babbitt. Babbitt had his 4th year option declined, as his 3 point shooting percentage dropped almost 10 percent this season. I have no problem with Babbitt walking. I have a MAJOR problem, with the Blazer front office ignoring the fact that this team was at its best pairing LaMarcus Aldridge with a stretch 4.
While the lineup with Babbitt took less shots by the rim (not as big of a number as you'd expect), they actually posted a higher rebound percentage (56.5 to 49) with Babbitt on the court, and not Hickson. Wasn't rebounding supposed to be Hickson's strong point. The teams eFG% (3's count as 1.5 field goals) was 40% higher with Babbitt on the court and Hickson off the court. This year the Blazers were 3.5 points better (net) per 100 possessions with Babbitt on the court and 5.7 points worse (net) with Hickson. Could this be the reason Babbitt got the mysterious 6th man of the year 3rd place vote?
There is a lot of evidence that Portland should not bring back JJ Hickson- and I cannot agree more. We must let Hickson walk. I am also not saying Babbitt is the answer- he has obvious shortcomings, has to hit a higher percentage of his 3s, and still only had a PER of 9.5. What all of this data proves is that the Blazers need a stretch 4 who can make a great impact throughout the game. A shot blocker would still be nice, but the data shown in this post shows that stretch 4 is a bigger need. Here are a few options of players who could be available via trade/free agency/draft:
Ersan Ilyasova- Ilyasova is one of the best stretch 4's in the league. Milwaukee's front office and roster are in a state of turmoil, and they might be willing to deal Ilyasova and the 23.7 million dollars (7.9/yr) he has left over the next 3 years (team option of 8.4 million for year 4). Ilyasova's Bucks were a net 3.3 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court. This last season he averaged 13 points and 7 rebounds to go with 44% shooting from 3 point range. The biggest drawback for Ilyasova is that he is not a great defender- but neither was Babbitt, and his pairing with LA in the frontcourt was Portland's most effective.
Jeff Green- Green's emergence in Boston since the Rondo injury has been impressive (17/5 in March, 17/6 in April, 3 pt 45.5% March/April.) He has 27.1 million remaining over the next 3 years, and might be able to be had due to the aging roster around him. A lineup of Bradley/Lee/Pierce/Green/Bass (Which played the 4th most minutes as a 5 man-group for Boston this year) had a win % over their minutes together of 71.4%, and scored 1.28 ppp while giving up only 0.96 ppp. Green is a better defender than Ilyasova (not by much) and is an improving outside shooter. He might be tougher to get- but Boston may be willing to get cap relief and a lottery pick (#10) for him in return. Next to LA, he fits great.
If a starter-level player cannot be found, solid bench options like the Morris twins could be had. Maybe Babbitt could be brought back. In the draft, Kelly Olynyk looks like a player who could guard centers and step out for a 3- a stretch 5? Olynyk will be available at ten, and could be a very valuable center to pair with Leonard to put next to Aldridge. 2nd round options (we have 3 rd 2 picks) could be Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas or Erik Murphy.
Best case scenario? The team trades their pick for either Green or Ilyasova (we have cap space- so can do an unbalanced trade) to pair with LA. We would still have 3 picks in the 2nd round (Or use them to sweeten the deal) and 4-5 million dollars remaining to sign free agents or make an additional unbalanced trade (Amir Johnson would be excellent- makes 6.5 million next year. Maybe a rebuilding Raptors team would take a deal to shed cap space (unlikely, but it is still the Raptors). Even without Johnson, a good defensive center like Samuel Dalembert could be had for less than 4-5 million. Zaza Pachulia and Jermaine O'Neal would make even less. If defensive center was our top priority, there are options in the draft too. Even the amnesty clause could give Portland a realistic option. Defensive centers are easier to find than good stretch 4's, which is why finding a great stretch 4, as opposed to a shot blocking center for 10 million dollars, is our biggest need.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Sunday, April 28, 2013
NFL Draft Analysis
Giving out NFL Draft grades is a strange task. In 3 or 4 years, it makes sense. In the NBA, a team is best served waiting a few years to grade a draft, but it is easier to do the day after the draft because most players make an impact in year 1 or 2 or could have their 2 year team options declined. In the NFL, a pick might watch for 5 years, and then become league MVP. For that reason, I have decided to avoid giving out draft grades, and instead talk about a few picks I liked, and I few I am questioning. Just because I question the picks, it does not count as a failing grade- rather that I need to have the pick proven to me. Without further ado, here are my likes and dislikes:
Likes:
St. Louis- You have to like what St. Louis added. Last year the receiving corps was nearly pathetic in St. Louis, and, Amendola left via free agency. They added college teammates Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey- 2 players that will have an impact right away. Adding in 2nd round pick last year Brian Quick and St. Louis has a very good core of young receivers. Add in Alec Ogletree, the centerpiece of a good Georgia defense, hard-hitting safety TJ McDonald and versatile offensive lineman Barrett Jones and you have a very good draft. I am impressed.
Green Bay- Green Bay's biggest weakness in their offense was the run game. In rounds 2 and 4, respectively, they added Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin, who will most likely team up to split carries. The Cheeseheads also added help on the offensive line, and a value 5th rd. corner in Micah Hyde. Their draft wasn't sexy, but this team is much improved.
Philadelphia- Chip Kelly's first draft is off to a good start. He took 4 players from the Pac-12, 3 of whom slipped far past where they were expected to be drafted (Barkley, Kruger, Poyer). Their pick of Lane Johnson in rd. 1 was a great pick, as his offense requires athletic tackles to run the system. Zach Ertz gives Vick (at least Vick is the favorite now) a reliable target at TE, as Celek was unreliable. Bennie Logan could be a very good DT.
Other picks I liked: Monte Ball at 58 to Denver- he could win ROY. Cincinnati's 2nd rd- Bernard could be a Sproles-like weapon for Dalton, and Hunt is raw but extraordinarily athletic. I liked it. Minnesota added Floyd at 23- the steal of rd. 1. SF took Lattimore as a "redshirt" running back. If healthy we are talking about a major steal. They also added a solid WR in the 4th rd in Quinton Patton. New Orleans took a VERY athletic future LT in Terron Armstead. He could pay off in 3 years as a huge steal.
Questions I have?
Buffalo: Had to know this was coming. I truly don't hate the pick of EJ Manuel. If Doug Marrone and Buddy Nix thought he was the best QB in the draft, then he was the correct pick. My big question is whether he offers an upgrade in year one over Tarvaris Jackson or Kevin Kolb. I would sit Manuel for a year and start Jackson, before letting Manuel loose on the league in year 2. If he is thrown into the fire too early, he could be a bust. Patience could lead to a Kaepernick type player. I also love the Robert Woods pick. Didn't they need a pass-rusher though?
Washington: Last year, Robert Griffin III's top receivers were the unreliable Pierre Garcon and the aging Santana Moss. I would have loved to see the Redskins give Griffin a reliable target he could grow with, and they added TE Jordan Reed, but not 1 WR? Solid WR's like Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams and Quinton Patton all slipped to the 3rd or 4th rounds, and I think they should have taken a WR for Griffin. Without reliable targets Griffin may scramble his way to another injury. I see 9 wins as the best case scenario for Washington.
Dallas: Travis Frederick at 31? He could become a very good center in the league, in which case people will forget he was drafted in the first round. But center was a need that could have been filled in the 2nd or 3rd rounds at the earliest (potentially still by Frederick- no joke). They needed help at safety, tackle and defensive end, and didn't even address two of these positions. I like Escobar's future, and Williams is a good WR in rd. 3, but this is a team that couldn't afford luxury picks like this. They could prove me wrong, but this does not look like a better team than Washington or the NY Giants.
Other picks I question: Cleveland took Mingo at 6, which is a solid pick, but doesn't he duplicate what they added in free agency? DJ Hayden was taken much too high at #12. He could be a great corner, but this seems like an Al Davis pick from the grave (trust me- not a compliment). Tampa Bay made a great trade for Revis, and then took Jonathan Banks as their top selection in rd. 2? Mike Glennon is not going to succeed Freeman, and they could have used a WR instead. San Diego took a RT (looks to have more of a future at G than LT) and Mant'i Teo as their first 2 picks. Rivers should have somewhat better protection, and T'eo will be an above average player in the NFL, but San Diego didn't add anything to take them out of the cellar in the AFC west. 7 wins seems optimistic for the Chargers. Seattle added a RB in rd. 2 despite having Lynch and Turbin already. Michael could develop into a starter one day, but I would have rather seen the right side of the offensive line addressed. Chris Harper could be a good pick for Seattle, but Quinton Patton will probably have a better career (and he wound up in SF). Schneider has made his living out of finding draft value, so I trust his judgement, but his picks seem lukewarm at best.
Likes:
St. Louis- You have to like what St. Louis added. Last year the receiving corps was nearly pathetic in St. Louis, and, Amendola left via free agency. They added college teammates Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey- 2 players that will have an impact right away. Adding in 2nd round pick last year Brian Quick and St. Louis has a very good core of young receivers. Add in Alec Ogletree, the centerpiece of a good Georgia defense, hard-hitting safety TJ McDonald and versatile offensive lineman Barrett Jones and you have a very good draft. I am impressed.
Green Bay- Green Bay's biggest weakness in their offense was the run game. In rounds 2 and 4, respectively, they added Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin, who will most likely team up to split carries. The Cheeseheads also added help on the offensive line, and a value 5th rd. corner in Micah Hyde. Their draft wasn't sexy, but this team is much improved.
Philadelphia- Chip Kelly's first draft is off to a good start. He took 4 players from the Pac-12, 3 of whom slipped far past where they were expected to be drafted (Barkley, Kruger, Poyer). Their pick of Lane Johnson in rd. 1 was a great pick, as his offense requires athletic tackles to run the system. Zach Ertz gives Vick (at least Vick is the favorite now) a reliable target at TE, as Celek was unreliable. Bennie Logan could be a very good DT.
Other picks I liked: Monte Ball at 58 to Denver- he could win ROY. Cincinnati's 2nd rd- Bernard could be a Sproles-like weapon for Dalton, and Hunt is raw but extraordinarily athletic. I liked it. Minnesota added Floyd at 23- the steal of rd. 1. SF took Lattimore as a "redshirt" running back. If healthy we are talking about a major steal. They also added a solid WR in the 4th rd in Quinton Patton. New Orleans took a VERY athletic future LT in Terron Armstead. He could pay off in 3 years as a huge steal.
Questions I have?
Buffalo: Had to know this was coming. I truly don't hate the pick of EJ Manuel. If Doug Marrone and Buddy Nix thought he was the best QB in the draft, then he was the correct pick. My big question is whether he offers an upgrade in year one over Tarvaris Jackson or Kevin Kolb. I would sit Manuel for a year and start Jackson, before letting Manuel loose on the league in year 2. If he is thrown into the fire too early, he could be a bust. Patience could lead to a Kaepernick type player. I also love the Robert Woods pick. Didn't they need a pass-rusher though?
Washington: Last year, Robert Griffin III's top receivers were the unreliable Pierre Garcon and the aging Santana Moss. I would have loved to see the Redskins give Griffin a reliable target he could grow with, and they added TE Jordan Reed, but not 1 WR? Solid WR's like Keenan Allen, Terrance Williams and Quinton Patton all slipped to the 3rd or 4th rounds, and I think they should have taken a WR for Griffin. Without reliable targets Griffin may scramble his way to another injury. I see 9 wins as the best case scenario for Washington.
Dallas: Travis Frederick at 31? He could become a very good center in the league, in which case people will forget he was drafted in the first round. But center was a need that could have been filled in the 2nd or 3rd rounds at the earliest (potentially still by Frederick- no joke). They needed help at safety, tackle and defensive end, and didn't even address two of these positions. I like Escobar's future, and Williams is a good WR in rd. 3, but this is a team that couldn't afford luxury picks like this. They could prove me wrong, but this does not look like a better team than Washington or the NY Giants.
Other picks I question: Cleveland took Mingo at 6, which is a solid pick, but doesn't he duplicate what they added in free agency? DJ Hayden was taken much too high at #12. He could be a great corner, but this seems like an Al Davis pick from the grave (trust me- not a compliment). Tampa Bay made a great trade for Revis, and then took Jonathan Banks as their top selection in rd. 2? Mike Glennon is not going to succeed Freeman, and they could have used a WR instead. San Diego took a RT (looks to have more of a future at G than LT) and Mant'i Teo as their first 2 picks. Rivers should have somewhat better protection, and T'eo will be an above average player in the NFL, but San Diego didn't add anything to take them out of the cellar in the AFC west. 7 wins seems optimistic for the Chargers. Seattle added a RB in rd. 2 despite having Lynch and Turbin already. Michael could develop into a starter one day, but I would have rather seen the right side of the offensive line addressed. Chris Harper could be a good pick for Seattle, but Quinton Patton will probably have a better career (and he wound up in SF). Schneider has made his living out of finding draft value, so I trust his judgement, but his picks seem lukewarm at best.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Final NFL Mock Draft- Round 1 & Seahawk Potentials
At 5pm (West Coast), Roger Goodell will walk out to the podium to a mixture of claps and boos, thank everyone for being there or watching, and announce that the Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock. Everybody who follows the draft some knows that Kansas City is going to take a tackle. For weeks, Texas A&M's Luck Joeckel has been the consensus number one pick, though Central Michigan's Eric Fisher has a legitimate chance of going number 1. I don't know who it will be. Andy Reid has his guy. John Dorsey has his. Are they the same? For now, this is how I project the mock draft to go, without any trades- though at the end I will give the top 5 trade scenarios for round one.
2 Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
3 Brennan Williams OT/North Carolina
4 Zavier Goodson OLB/Missouri
5 Will Davis CB/Utah State
5 Everett Dawkins DT/Florida State
6 Ryan Otten TE/San Jose State
7 Kenny Tate OLB/Maryland
7 Courtney Gardner WR/Sierra
7 Stefphon Jefferson RB/Nevada
7 Dustin Hopkins K/Florida State
Most Likely Trades:
#NFLDraft @ZRey12
- KC- Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M
- JAX- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan
- OAK- Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida
- PHI- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma
- DET- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU
- CLE- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia
- ARZ- Dion Jordan OLB/Oregon
- BUF- Chance Warmack OG/Alabama
- NYJ- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama
- TEN- Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina
- SD- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia
- MIA- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama
- NYJ- Barkevious Mingo OLB/LSU
- CAR- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah
- NO- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia
- STL- Kenny Vaccaro S/Texas
- PIT- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
- DAL- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State
- NYG- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri
- CHI- Kyle Long OT/Oregon
- CIN- Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida Int'l
- STL- Justin Hunter WR/Tennesee
- MIN- Robert Woods WR/USC
- IND- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State
- MIN- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame
- GB- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington
- HOU- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee
- DEN- DJ Hayden CB/Houston
- NE- Margus Hunt DL/SMU
- ATL- Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State
- SF- Matt Elam S/Florida
- BAL- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia
2 Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
3 Brennan Williams OT/North Carolina
4 Zavier Goodson OLB/Missouri
5 Will Davis CB/Utah State
5 Everett Dawkins DT/Florida State
6 Ryan Otten TE/San Jose State
7 Kenny Tate OLB/Maryland
7 Courtney Gardner WR/Sierra
7 Stefphon Jefferson RB/Nevada
7 Dustin Hopkins K/Florida State
Most Likely Trades:
- Someone trades up for a tackle. San Diego, Miami and even the Jets could all be in a position to trade up for Fisher/Joeckel/Johnson. Oakland at 3 could easily move out.
- Buffalo trades back- Buffalo wants a reunion with Ryan Nassib and Doug Marrone, and by trading into the mid teens, they can still get their guy and add more picks. A deal with NO would make sense so they could get Jordan/Mingo.
- Someone trades back into round 1 for a QB. Looking at you Chip Kelly... Philidelphia could maneuver over Jacksonville and other teams trying to trade back in to take QB EJ Manuel, who would be a great fit in Philly. I expect Manuel to go between 27-32 because of a trade back in for PHI.
- San Francisco moves up- They have way to many picks not to move up some, and they could target safeties like Vacarro and Cyprien in the late teens to replace new TB safety Dashon Goldson. They have numerous picks later on too, so expect to see risks taken.
- Watch St Louis and Minnesota- they each have two picks in round one, and could easily trade up quite a ways, or use one pick to trade down. Each of these teams could be a pivot point in the draft tonight.
#NFLDraft @ZRey12
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Bobcats Fire Mike Dunlap
With the first pick in the 2001 NBA Draft the Washington Wizards select..... Kwame Brown! Brown was a mistake to taken number one. He was not ready, and placed in an environment where there were too many expectations early on. He then proceeded to build a team in Washington that was marred with character conflicts. In 2003, Jordan was fired by the Wizards as president of basketball operations. In 2006, Jordan bought a minority ownership share with the Charlotte Bobcats to become the team's second largest shareholder. The biggest part of that move: He was the "Managing Member of Basketball Operations" as part of the move- which allowed him full control over basketball operations (Wikipedia- it's a blog. So what if i used Wikipedia as a source, we all remember this going down). Since 2006, the Bobcats have gone 206-352, which is good for a 37% winning percentage. During Jordan's tenure he had 4 coaches in 6 years, and drafted these players in the first round:
Adam Morrison
Brandan Wright (traded on draft day for Jason Richardson)
Jared Dudley
DJ Augustin
Alexis Ajinca
Gerald Henderson
Kemba Walker
Bismack Biyombo
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
In addition, their 2010 draft choice was traded in 2008 to draft Alexis Ajinca.
The best players on this list are raw athletes who will get better, or did not play their best basketball until they left the team.
So where does Mike Dunlap fit in?
Dunlap was fired after only one season (21-61), making him the 5th coach in 7 years to be fired by Michael Jordan in Charlotte. Dunlap was hired right after the Bobcats had the lowest winning percentage in NBA history. Now there were rumors that players did not enjoy playing for him due to "micromanagement," but that is beside the main point: The Bobcats ownership, led by Michael Jordan, has consistently made poor choices that has led to Charlotte's awful play every year. Dunlap was essentially in a no-win scenario, as it seems Bobcat ownership realized they made a poor choice last summer (He was a surprising hire). Continuing to hire coaches most every year cannot help lead the team to success, but a team with Michael Jordan in charge does not have a chance in Hell to succeed. There are two courses of action the Bobcats must take:
1. Hand the reigns to Rich Cho 100%: Cho was a successful assistant GM in Oklahoma City, where he helped build the contender that is a favorite to win the Western Conference this year. After a personality conflict as GM in Portland (where he made some very good moves) he was hired by Charlotte the next summer. Michael Jordan has to stay out of ALL basketball decisions to insure the team's success. As an owner, he is needed more for his money than his insight- which let's be honest has not had the best track record. This means he has no influence on who is drafted or signed as a coach, only that he puts up the money necessary.
2. Sell the team: If I were a Bobcats fan I would be appalled at the team over the past decade. While the future looks brighter than before, this team is still a long ways away. Walker can score, but looks like a teams #3 starter not #1 starter. Kidd-Gilchrist had an average rookie year and will continue to get better, but he is a complimentary player- much like a Pippen- who won't lead the team to wins. Biyombo is a raw center who blocks shots and rebounds, but has little offensive game. With Jordan out of the picture, the franchise can truly heal from 8 years of poor choices.
Over the next 2 years, the Bobcats will pay Tyrus Thomas 17 million dollars, Ben Gordon 13 million dollars, and Ramon Sessions 5 million dollars. Cho needs to be creative to remove some of this unnecessary salary off the roster. The Bobcats have not used their amnesty clause yet, and should do so on Tyrus Thomas this summer. Gordon's and Sessions' salaries come off the books after next season. The Bobcats' cap flexibility has potential entering the 2014 free agency period. With a guaranteed top 5 pick in this draft, they can add another young (and cheap!) piece to add to their young core of Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo. For the 2014-15 season, only those three, plus Brendan Haywood for 2 million and a team option on Jeff Taylor for 900K are all that are on the books (plus this years draft choices- Noel or McLemore would fit well). There is lots of potential for the Bobcats to get better, even if next season is another long one. The Bobcats decided that Mike Dunlap was not the right choice to move forward as a head coach. The next one hired has to stay for a long time, or else the tumultuous era of Michael Jordan will continue, and the Bobcats remain the laughing stock of the NBA.
Adam Morrison
Brandan Wright (traded on draft day for Jason Richardson)
Jared Dudley
DJ Augustin
Alexis Ajinca
Gerald Henderson
Kemba Walker
Bismack Biyombo
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
In addition, their 2010 draft choice was traded in 2008 to draft Alexis Ajinca.
The best players on this list are raw athletes who will get better, or did not play their best basketball until they left the team.
So where does Mike Dunlap fit in?
Dunlap was fired after only one season (21-61), making him the 5th coach in 7 years to be fired by Michael Jordan in Charlotte. Dunlap was hired right after the Bobcats had the lowest winning percentage in NBA history. Now there were rumors that players did not enjoy playing for him due to "micromanagement," but that is beside the main point: The Bobcats ownership, led by Michael Jordan, has consistently made poor choices that has led to Charlotte's awful play every year. Dunlap was essentially in a no-win scenario, as it seems Bobcat ownership realized they made a poor choice last summer (He was a surprising hire). Continuing to hire coaches most every year cannot help lead the team to success, but a team with Michael Jordan in charge does not have a chance in Hell to succeed. There are two courses of action the Bobcats must take:
1. Hand the reigns to Rich Cho 100%: Cho was a successful assistant GM in Oklahoma City, where he helped build the contender that is a favorite to win the Western Conference this year. After a personality conflict as GM in Portland (where he made some very good moves) he was hired by Charlotte the next summer. Michael Jordan has to stay out of ALL basketball decisions to insure the team's success. As an owner, he is needed more for his money than his insight- which let's be honest has not had the best track record. This means he has no influence on who is drafted or signed as a coach, only that he puts up the money necessary.
2. Sell the team: If I were a Bobcats fan I would be appalled at the team over the past decade. While the future looks brighter than before, this team is still a long ways away. Walker can score, but looks like a teams #3 starter not #1 starter. Kidd-Gilchrist had an average rookie year and will continue to get better, but he is a complimentary player- much like a Pippen- who won't lead the team to wins. Biyombo is a raw center who blocks shots and rebounds, but has little offensive game. With Jordan out of the picture, the franchise can truly heal from 8 years of poor choices.
Over the next 2 years, the Bobcats will pay Tyrus Thomas 17 million dollars, Ben Gordon 13 million dollars, and Ramon Sessions 5 million dollars. Cho needs to be creative to remove some of this unnecessary salary off the roster. The Bobcats have not used their amnesty clause yet, and should do so on Tyrus Thomas this summer. Gordon's and Sessions' salaries come off the books after next season. The Bobcats' cap flexibility has potential entering the 2014 free agency period. With a guaranteed top 5 pick in this draft, they can add another young (and cheap!) piece to add to their young core of Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist and Biyombo. For the 2014-15 season, only those three, plus Brendan Haywood for 2 million and a team option on Jeff Taylor for 900K are all that are on the books (plus this years draft choices- Noel or McLemore would fit well). There is lots of potential for the Bobcats to get better, even if next season is another long one. The Bobcats decided that Mike Dunlap was not the right choice to move forward as a head coach. The next one hired has to stay for a long time, or else the tumultuous era of Michael Jordan will continue, and the Bobcats remain the laughing stock of the NBA.
Monday, April 22, 2013
NFL 1st Round Mock WITH TRADES
Projecting how a mock draft will go is a difficult task. Add in trades and you're talking about a nearly impossible task. Isn't that what makes it so much fun? Today the Jets traded top 3 CB in the league Darell Revis to Tampa Bay for the #13 pick and some picks next year. Have to like this deal for Tampa in the short term, but the Jets could find real benefit out of these picks due to the new faces in their front office. Without further ado, here is my mock draft for round 1, with trades:
- KC- Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M- No trade here, KC lands its franchise LT to protect the blind side of Alex Smith.
- JAX- Dion Jordan DE/Oregon- Adding a dominant future pass rusher in Jordan will be too much for new HC Gus Bradley to pass up here.
- OAK- TRADE w/ARZ! Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan- Arizona moves up to add a franchise LT in Fisher, as the O-Line has been a major issue. They give up their #7 pick and 3rd and 4th rd. picks this year, and a conditional pick next year, to move up.
- PHI- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma- Much to the displeasure of other teams, a 3rd OT goes in the top 4. Johnson will be able to protect whomever is chosen at QB for Chip Kelly.
- DET- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama- With pass heavy teams in their division, Detroit has to upgrade their weak secondary. Milliner has potential to be a lockdown corner.
- CLE- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah- I am sure Cleveland would love to move down, but with all 3 LT's off the board they are stuck picking here, though they add a great value DT in Lotulelei.
- ARZ- OAK (From Trade w/ARZ)- Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida- They likely would have taken a DT at #3 anyways, the trade allowed them to add picks that they foolishly wasted in other trades (Palmer).
- BUF- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia- Smith will lead the new operation in Buffalo. Kolb will be the backup. Buffalo fans- this is a reach- but he brings more potential than the organization has seen in a long time.
- NYJ- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- Ansah could go as high as #2, but he slides because of teams targeting the Offensive Line. Ansah has lots of potential and could be a dominant pass rusher.
- TEN- Chance Warmack OG/Alabama- Tennessee is redoing their offensive line to protect Jake Locker. Warmack will bring run support to aid Chris Johnson as well.
- SD- Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina- Cooper can add life into the pathetic O-Line that has started to cause concerns about Rivers. With a competent line in front of him, Rivers should be fine.
- MIA- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama- Just like teams before them, Miami elects to protect their young QB in Tannehill. Fluker is massive but mobile, and should fit at RT while Martin slides to the left side.
- NYJ- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia- The Jets traded Revis already, but choose to add an impact WR for Sanchez, as Kyle Wilson can step outside. Austin could be ROY.
- CAR- TRADE w/SF!- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas- San Francisco has LOTS of picks, and they move up here to snag Vacarro away from teams like STL and DAL. Carolina gets their late 1, early 2 and a 4th round pick as compensation.
- NO- Barkevious Mingo OLB/LSU- The Saints have to put pressure on the QB, and Mingo has the speed and strength to do it. Does he have the motor? Saints should be able to get production out of him.
- STL- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia- Ogletree can upgrade the linebacker core to compete with the rest of the division. Next to Laurinitas, the Rams would have a great second line.
- PIT- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame- Roethlisberger needs a new target, and Heath Miller is aging. Eifert could have a Gronkowski like impact on the NFL.
- DAL- TRADE w/IND! Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia- Indianapolis needs to add a pass rusher to replace the aging Mathis and FA Freeney. Jones could go as high as top ten, so moving up here could be a good get. They give up a 3 and a 6 to move up 6 spots.
- NYG- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri- This would involve a fall for the DT, but NYG would be very happy with the pickup. He is a space eater in the middle, and would help occupy defenders and stop the run.
- CHI- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford- Chicago would like for Eifert to be here, but Ertz is a good prize anyways. He is a good pass catcher and will block some for Cutler, which is needed when Webb is a starting tackle.
- CIN- Jonathan Cyprien S/Fla. International- After a private meeting this week, Cincinnati could be targeting Cyprien. He would be a great pickup in the 20s.
- STL- Keenan Allen WR/Cal- St. Louis could take Patterson, but Allen is a safer choice who runs better routes and can line up all over the field.
- MIN- Sylvester Williams DT/UNC- Williams can replace the older Williams with a needed interior pass rush. Minnesota made the playoffs, but has quite a few needs.
- IND- DAL (trade w/IND)- Kyle Long OL/Oregon- He is a versatile lineman who could be a guard or a tackle. His versatility could lead to his selection in the late first round.
- MIN- Robert Woods WR/USC- Patterson slips some more. Woods can replace the production of Harvin, as he runs a lot of good underneath routes. 100 catches is not out of the question in a given season for Woods.
- GB- Xavier Rhodes DB/Florida State- Rhodes can play safety or cornerback, which can replace the role Charles Woodson was in. Rhodes could go as high as #12, so this would be a great coup for the Packers.
- HOU- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee- Patterson fits really well in Houston. He can step in as a threat across from Johnson, and eventually succeed him as Schaub's top option.
- DEN- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington- Denver needs a cornerback, and Trufant is the best available. He can cover well, and has the speed to cover most everyone in the league.
- NE- TRADE w/NYJ!- Matt Barkley QB/USC- The Jets trade back up for their 3rd 1st round pick. Barkley is another USC QB who can push Sanchez and eventually become the starter, if not week 1.
- ATL- DJ Hayden CB/Houston- Atlanta might look to trade up for a CB, especially with Rhodes and Trufant slipping. In this scenario, I think they would be happy with Hayden.
- SF- CAR (trade w/SF)- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State- Carolina could use a DT, but they can use one of their 2 2nd round picks to add one. Watson provides good value as an athletic tackle.
- BAL- Trade w/ARZ! Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse- Arizona already moved up once for Eric Fisher, now they move up again 6 spots for Nassib to be their starter. By hopping in front of Jacksonville, they make sure to land their guy. Baltimore gets pick 38 and a 2nd round pick next year. Baltimore gives up their 5th round pick to ARZ.
Nike Hoop Summit Review
Here is my quarter by quarter analysis of the Nike Hoop Summit, with a final review of the players at the end:
1st Quarter:
- Julius Randle looked great early on, showing power on a lot of his moves.
- Livio Jean-Charles was very productive in the first quarter for the world team. Their go to guy on many plays.
- Dennis Schroeder controlling the pace really well. Long wingspan.
- Jaiteh looks really raw. Hasn't had the early impact I expected.
- Sergey Karasev making good moves but struggling scoring. I expected him to get going in the second quarter.
- Dante Exum has unbelievable quickness and athleticism. Hard to believe more colleges aren't going after him.
- The Harrison twins look selfish so far. They seem more worried about getting their own then helping teammates get an easy basket. Talent is there though.
2nd Quarter:
- Jaiteh finding his rhythm better. He has been much more effective on the glass and with his post defense.
- Wiggins all-around game looks really nice. Would like him to finish better. He has the potential to take over this game.
- Andrew Harrison getting buckets. He has been inefficient though and still making poor choices. This type of play won't be tolerated at UK with all kinds of talent around him.
- World team definitely playing better team-basketball. Maybe the extra few days of practice played a role?
- Jabari Parker sure can score the ball.
- Karl Towns looks like the second coming of Isaiah Austin. Lots of talent, but still have to wait to see if either become dominant the way their talent suggests.
3rd Quarter:
- Jean-Charles has continued his good play. MVP candidate?
- Bobby Portis hasnt stood out, but is playing pretty good defense. Does not look like a one-and-done player. 4 year guy?
- Julius Randle has been playing the most consistent game on the world team.
- Wiggins has superb athleticism. If he can start hitting an outside shot the world team will pull away.
- Parker makes a nice stepback jumper. Will look good for Duke, but could be criticized for taking some less than stellar shots. Coach K wont have it after dealing with Austin Rivers.
- Hollis-Jefferson has a great motor. Looks like a potential double double guy. Shawn Marion-esque minus the jump shot form?
- Joel Embiid is raw, but has an NBA body. Looks like a keeper in a few years. Good pick-up for Bill Self.
4th Quarter:
- Karasev getting into the offense but struggling to get a shot to fall. Looks like a left handed Rudy Fernandez.
- USA point guards have been disappointing as a group. Cannot contain Schroeder. Hill and Jackson, especially, have looked the best, but their inability to slow down the transition has been poor.
- Embiid making some nice post moves. Could he be a few years away from being a top 10 pick? Not out of the question...
- Hollis-Jefferson playing some fantastic defense on Wiggins right now. Love his low defensive stance. Will be great at Arizona in a scoring Pac-12. Like to see him on Dinwiddie, Wilcox and maybe even Artis?
- Wiggins is a smooth athlete. Looks like a legitimate #1 pick without doubt if he can improve his 3 point shot.
- Andrew has been the better Harrison tonight.
- Schroeder is going to be a first round pick. Looks the part of a floor general.
- Exum is a blur in transition and has hit some outside shots too. He has work to do, but has more potential than maybe anyone else in the game.
- Parker looks like a future Paul Pierce-like player. Can score from anywhere on the court without elite athleticism. Coach K has a keeper.
- Livio Jean Charles should win the MVP. We will see if he does...
Overall:
- Jean Charles wins the MVP award, and should probably enter the draft. He will be gone by pick 40 guaranteed! Could be a first round pick.
- It is possible that Jaiteh, Schroeder, Jean Charles and Karasev are all first round picks this year. Other international prospects who could be first round picks this year are: Gobert, Saric, Adetokunbo, Nedovic and Nogueira. That's 9 potential first round picks from outside the United States. Picks 15-35 could have many-all of them.
- Exum and Embiid look like lottery picks in the 2014 draft if they go. Towns looks like a future lottery pick too. Wiggins will go number 1 next year. Where will he go to college? I am guessing Florida State, but I would like to see him at Kansas with Embiid.
- The USA squad was full of talent. Next year I could see Randle, Parker, Gordon and the Harrison twins (maybe- I could see their stock falling) as lottery picks. Hollis-Jefferson could be as well. Could be a better Kawhi Leonard.
1st Quarter:
- Julius Randle looked great early on, showing power on a lot of his moves.
- Livio Jean-Charles was very productive in the first quarter for the world team. Their go to guy on many plays.
- Dennis Schroeder controlling the pace really well. Long wingspan.
- Jaiteh looks really raw. Hasn't had the early impact I expected.
- Sergey Karasev making good moves but struggling scoring. I expected him to get going in the second quarter.
- Dante Exum has unbelievable quickness and athleticism. Hard to believe more colleges aren't going after him.
- The Harrison twins look selfish so far. They seem more worried about getting their own then helping teammates get an easy basket. Talent is there though.
2nd Quarter:
- Jaiteh finding his rhythm better. He has been much more effective on the glass and with his post defense.
- Wiggins all-around game looks really nice. Would like him to finish better. He has the potential to take over this game.
- Andrew Harrison getting buckets. He has been inefficient though and still making poor choices. This type of play won't be tolerated at UK with all kinds of talent around him.
- World team definitely playing better team-basketball. Maybe the extra few days of practice played a role?
- Jabari Parker sure can score the ball.
- Karl Towns looks like the second coming of Isaiah Austin. Lots of talent, but still have to wait to see if either become dominant the way their talent suggests.
3rd Quarter:
- Jean-Charles has continued his good play. MVP candidate?
- Bobby Portis hasnt stood out, but is playing pretty good defense. Does not look like a one-and-done player. 4 year guy?
- Julius Randle has been playing the most consistent game on the world team.
- Wiggins has superb athleticism. If he can start hitting an outside shot the world team will pull away.
- Parker makes a nice stepback jumper. Will look good for Duke, but could be criticized for taking some less than stellar shots. Coach K wont have it after dealing with Austin Rivers.
- Hollis-Jefferson has a great motor. Looks like a potential double double guy. Shawn Marion-esque minus the jump shot form?
- Joel Embiid is raw, but has an NBA body. Looks like a keeper in a few years. Good pick-up for Bill Self.
4th Quarter:
- Karasev getting into the offense but struggling to get a shot to fall. Looks like a left handed Rudy Fernandez.
- USA point guards have been disappointing as a group. Cannot contain Schroeder. Hill and Jackson, especially, have looked the best, but their inability to slow down the transition has been poor.
- Embiid making some nice post moves. Could he be a few years away from being a top 10 pick? Not out of the question...
- Hollis-Jefferson playing some fantastic defense on Wiggins right now. Love his low defensive stance. Will be great at Arizona in a scoring Pac-12. Like to see him on Dinwiddie, Wilcox and maybe even Artis?
- Wiggins is a smooth athlete. Looks like a legitimate #1 pick without doubt if he can improve his 3 point shot.
- Andrew has been the better Harrison tonight.
- Schroeder is going to be a first round pick. Looks the part of a floor general.
- Exum is a blur in transition and has hit some outside shots too. He has work to do, but has more potential than maybe anyone else in the game.
- Parker looks like a future Paul Pierce-like player. Can score from anywhere on the court without elite athleticism. Coach K has a keeper.
- Livio Jean Charles should win the MVP. We will see if he does...
Overall:
- Jean Charles wins the MVP award, and should probably enter the draft. He will be gone by pick 40 guaranteed! Could be a first round pick.
- It is possible that Jaiteh, Schroeder, Jean Charles and Karasev are all first round picks this year. Other international prospects who could be first round picks this year are: Gobert, Saric, Adetokunbo, Nedovic and Nogueira. That's 9 potential first round picks from outside the United States. Picks 15-35 could have many-all of them.
- Exum and Embiid look like lottery picks in the 2014 draft if they go. Towns looks like a future lottery pick too. Wiggins will go number 1 next year. Where will he go to college? I am guessing Florida State, but I would like to see him at Kansas with Embiid.
- The USA squad was full of talent. Next year I could see Randle, Parker, Gordon and the Harrison twins (maybe- I could see their stock falling) as lottery picks. Hollis-Jefferson could be as well. Could be a better Kawhi Leonard.
Friday, April 19, 2013
Portland Trail Blazers- Season Review
Wednesday night, Portland ended the season by losing their 13th consecutive game. The Golden State Warriors proved too much to handle, as Klay Thompson lit up the team from the outside for 24 points, and David Lee had a steady 20/10 performance. LaMarcus Aldridge had an amazing performance in the loss, as he had 30 points 21 rebounds and 3 blocks in only 32 minutes. The season ended on a sour note, but there were lots of positives to take away from the season. We were in contention for a playoff berth for most of the season with a team no one expected to perform that well. Damian Lillard exceeded expectations. Nic Batum had a hot start until his wrist/shoulder ended his great productivity and, eventually season. A "core 3" of Aldridge, Lillard and Batum is very good, and could be a core that could lead a team deep into the playoffs. Here were the three biggest story-lines of the season:
1- Lack of Depth: The starting 5 was a unit that was highly regarded, but the bench lacked any players who could step up and make plays. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 37.7 mpg, Damian Lillard averaged 38.6 mpg, and Nic Batum averaged 38.5 mpg. These numbers are ridiculous. Only Durant played more mpg than Lillard- a rookie! Terry Stotts ran the starters into the ground, as nagging injuries started picking up and the guys didn't have the "legs" they had early on, which resulted in less efficient play plagued by poor shooting percentages. I ask myself this question: Did he have any other choice? If Portland was to make a serious playoff run, as they did for the first 65 games, he had to play the best players too much as the bench was essentially worthless. Eric Maynor played well after his arrival from OKC in a mid-season trade (for essentially nothing too)- as he averaged almost 7 points and 4 assists in his time in Portland. That was the best performance we had off of the bench, and we only had him for 27 games. The worst part? Maynor's efficiency with Portland was bad, just like the rest of the bench unit. His PER in Portland was a mediocre 10.6. 15 is league average. Meyers Leonard's PER was 12.1 this season- the best Portland's bench had to offer. While an entire bench unit should not be judged off of one statistic, we did not have one player on our bench play at an AVERAGE efficiency. This is a big issue that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
2- Emergence of Damian Lillard- I touched on this earlier, but Lillard exceeded expectations this year. He won every single rookie of the month award, and looks like the obvious choice for rookie of the year. I had him ranked 5th on my pre-draft big board for 2012- higher than everyone else's boards who I saw- and I still vastly underrated him. I did give him a grade as an All-Star in the future, but he looks like he could be a point guard in the elite tier along the likes of players like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose. The one thing holding Dame back is his defense- which he will learn. He has earned every accolade possible, and won over the entire city of Portland (if not the whole NBA). If any bright spot was brightest this season, it was our rookie point guard. (More on Lillard in detail later- don't worry!)
3- Playoffs or Future?- I wrote about this midseason, and it is still relevant. This team did not have an identity as a playoff team or lottery contender until players started missing games. LaMarcus Aldridge was our rock and go to guy all season, but he isn't the type of power forward to lead a team to the playoffs on his own (for the record- none in the league can). This team has many building blocks for the future, and a very positive outlook, but it was a shame this season had to be sacrificed, as it appears it was in the end.
Here is a run-down on all of the Blazer players of the 2012-13 season, starting with the bench:
Nolan Smith (Unrestricted Free Agent)- Nolan Smith has been very disappointing over the past few years. I thought it was a reach on draft day when we took him (I had him in the low 30s), and I really wanted Faried (whoops...). Smith had potential, as he was a 20ppg scorer at Duke, but he has failed to live up to it. He was a turnover machine in limited minutes this year, and only appeared in 40 games despite being healthy all year. He scored reasonably well while he was in, but he was a liability on both sides of the ball while he was in. Nolan was a great college player, and a good teammate, but I don't see any chance he stays in Portland next year.
Jared Jeffries (2 years/3.1 mil remaining- both years team options)- Jared Jeffries wasn't going to be asked to do a lot. He was going to be asked to be a role model and veteran presence, and provide good defense (and charges galore!) while he was in. He posted the worst efficiency rate on the team, to no surprise. He is not a good offensive player, and is able to take fouls on the defensive end. He only appeared in 38 games, and grabbed 1.5 rebounds in the 9mpg he did play. He was what we thought he was! (Lame quote- I know) I would expect his options to be declined, and I would not expect him to be in Portland next year. If we have an open roster spot in October, though, Jeffries would be a good pick to add as an end-of-the-bench, veteran towel waiver.
Sasha Pavlovic (2 years/2.8 mil remaining- both years team options)- Pavlovic was acquired from Boston in a deal that netted us two second round picks (one in 2013) for the draft rights to Jon Diebler. Pavlovic isn't a great anything in the NBA, but he is experienced, which helped in big games against tough opponents. Like the others on this list, he was not efficient (it will begin to sound like a broken record) with a PER of 6. He is regarded as a good outside shooter, but he shot only 30 percent this year. He is a decent defender, and picks up steals well. Fun fact- Pavlovic shot 17 percent from the FT line this year (1-6). Pavlovic's team option will be declined, making him a UFA with Jeffries and Smith. I would expect him not to be with Portland next year, and if he wants to keep playing it might have to be in Europe.
Elliot Williams (UFA)- Williams suffered a torn Achilles before the season and missed yet another season. He has only played 24 games in 3 years- a number that would make even Greg Oden cringe. Williams showed promise in the games he played, showing off amazing athleticism. He had potential, but the injuries may have damaged much of it. The big knock on E-Will before the year was his lack of an outside jump shot (8-27 NBA, 60-164 college). Without his elite athleticism (Maybe? Don't know if it's really been affected), he will have to become a better shooter to stick. He is an unrestricted FA, but I bet he signs with Portland for 1 year at the minimum for next season. If he proves he can play at a high level, it could be a steal of a contract. If not, it is a low risk investment.
Luke Babbitt (UFA)- Babbitt, like E-Will and Nolan Smith, had his 2013-14 contract option declined before the season. In 2011-12 he was a great shooter off the bench, as a stretch-4 in the mold of Steve Novak. The biggest issue for Babbitt this year was that he could not keep it up. He posted a pedestrian 9.5 PER, though his awareness did look somewhat better this year. His 3 point percentage dropped from 43% last year to just 35% this year. Shooting the 3 was his claim to stick in the league, and 35% is not good enough. He has a good motor and is actually a decent rebounder, but he is not very athletic and has to hit the 3 at a better rate to stick in the NBA. He will be on an NBA roster next season, but I am not sure Portland is the spot. I'll give it just a 10% chance he is back in Rip City, and it would come late in the FA period.
Joel Freeland (2 years/6.1 million remaining)- Freeland was the last pick of the first round in 2006, and he played in Spain until this season when he got his 3 mil/year contract. There was speculation before the season that Freeland would challenge Hickson for a starting spot, but Freeland had issues adjusting to the league, particularly the athleticism of other bigs. Freeland was not efficient (9.4 PER), but he actually looks like a player who will be helpful next season off of the bench. Freeland is a very capable outside shooter, and showed some ability to score in the post. His jump hook shows some promise too. His rebounding was good as well, picking up 2.3 in just over 9 minutes of action. Joel won't ever be a starting quality player in the league, but he doesn't have to be to be considered a success as a draft choice for Portland. He looks like a Carl Landry type player moving forward. He will be on next year's roster.
Victor Claver (2 years/2.7 million remaining)- Claver, like Freeland, was a draft & stash player, as we selected him in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft. He faced some issues in adjusting to the league, but he wound up starting 16 games on the wing, and he looked much better while playing with the starting unit rather than the bench unit. He shows most of his promise as a defender, where he uses his above average length to change shots, and he has good lateral quickness. Claver's ability to shoot the 3 has to improve, as he shot just under 29% on the season. Part of this could involve the transition to the NBA 3-point line. I expect those numbers to rise next year. He, again, was not efficient, but he scored nearly 4 points a game, and showed some ability as a rebounder and secondary distributor. His contract is a great value, and he will be counted upon next year off of the bench for regular rotation minutes. Oh, and he can dunk.
Will Barton (2 years/1.5 mil left, 2nd year team option)- Barton came on at the end of the season as a useful guard off then bench who can penetrate well. He averaged 15 points and 6 rebounds over the last 5 games of the season. Barton's biggest problem lies in his inefficiency (9 PER) and his volume shooting. Part of becoming a successful gunner off of the bench lies in realizing what is a good shot, and when to pass the ball. At times he was a black hole on offense. His defense has to improve as well. On the positive side, he is a very good rebounder for a guard; and, he showed a knack for scoring the ball towards the end of the season, which the bench had not provided all year. He has to improve his 3 point shot, especially from the corner. He could be a viable 6th man candidate next season if all of the FA money is spent on a center. In the video against Dallas, you can see his tendency to overdribble, and force shots, but he has potential that could blossom further next season.
Meyers Leonard (3 years/8 mil remaining- 2 year team option)- My oh Meyers... Leonard brought moments of excitement and moments of stupidity on the court. A rookie who we drafted with the 11th pick, I had him rated as the #18 prospect in the last draft. Offensively is where he excelled the most. He can finish lobs. He has a good mid-range shot. He has a decent post-up game. At 7'1" he runs the court. The other side of the ball is where he struggles a lot. His post defense has to improve. He gave up too many easy looks inside, and didn't block many shots. Much of his lack of defensive production lies in his lack of awareness on that side of the ball. This year he was still below league-average efficiency (12.1), but he managed to score 5.5 a game while grabbing 3.7 boards. I had him pegged as a 2-3 year prospect coming out of college, and that still seems about right. He can still become a starter at the next level, but it will take hard work out of him. Is he tough enough to handle it? Time will tell, but he will definitely be on the roster next year, and we should expect noticeable improvements.
Eric Maynor (RFA- 3.4 mil Qualifying Offer)- Maynor was a big improvement at the backup 1- and 6th man- after the trade deadline. Ronnie Price hadn't played well, which made it easy to give up the draft rights to Printezic for him. After we acquired Maynor he averaged essentially 7/4ast, though he wasn't very efficient. Maynor showed some ability to score on the drive and from 3 point range, and his ability to distribute was a vast improvement over anything that the bench had given all year. In just his 3rd game with the team, he recorded 12 assists off of the bench. Looking at the video, he is very good in transition, and does his best work when he has space to operate, which is not always present in the NBA. At 6'3" he has good size as a PG, and he looks like a backup for his career, though potentially a good one. He has been in the league for 4 years out of VCU, and should get another contract somewhere around the league. ESPN.com's analysis of the free agent market proposed a 2 year 5 million dollar deal as fair for both sides, if he were to return to Portland. I would give his odds of being in Portland next year as 50/50. His rebound numbers are pedestrian, and he needs to up his shooting percentages some to return to league average efficiency. Maynor should at least be considered to be in Portland's long term plans.
Starting Lineup
JJ Hickson (UFA)- Hickson came to Portland at midseason last year after he was surprisingly released from the Sacramento Kings. After signing with Portland, he has become known for powerful dunks and rebounding. This year he averaged 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds, which was good for 7th in the NBA. He recorded 40 double doubles in 80 games this year. Finally, JJ was efficient, posting a PER of almost 20. He flashed a mid-range game every once in a while and blocked an occasional shot, but these are two facets that are not strengths of his game. JJ is an energy player who gets his points off of rebounds and passes. He found some post up opportunities, but he was at his best when receiving a pass when he was ready to score. He is very athletic, which helped him in playing an undersized 5 all season. Let's be honest though- JJ Hickson was a power forward playing center this year. At 6'9", he was undersized against nearly every other starting center in the league. Aldridge has campaigned for a defensive 7 footer next to him, which could lead to JJ's exit from Portland despite his quality play. JJ deserves a contract in the 6-7 million dollar annual range, which would eat up over half of Portland's available cap space. It is likely that a true center will be targeted first before JJ is asked to return. Hickson has had special moments for the team, but he will likely be playing for someone else next year.
Wesley Matthews (2 years 14 million remaining)- In Matthews 3 years as a Blazer he has been very consistent. This year, like the past few, he averaged roughly 15 points and 3 rebounds. He was just below league average efficiency, in part due to his low rebound and assist numbers. A 40% 3 point shooter, Matthews excels in stretching the defense, which also allows him to get to the rim out of his shot fake. He is a complete player who has many good traits and no terrible traits, including great intangibles. His defense is good as well, as he often times guards the stronger of the wing players due to his somewhat stocky frame. He is quick on D, and picked up over a steal per game. In many games the Blazers lost, Matthews did not shoot the ball as well. In wins this year, Matthews shot 47% from 3, compared to 35% in losses. Still a reasonable mark at 35%, this shows how important Matthews is to the team. When he plays well, and is involved early, the team performs better. He was a good fit next to Lillard and Batum because he does not need to handle the ball much- which is good as it is not playing to his strengths. In transition Wes is good, but not great, and sometimes tries to do too much. I fully expect Matthews to be the starting 2 guard again next season, and don't expect him to be used as trade bait to acquire a center to go next to LA. He is the heart and soul of this Blazer team. He's got a little bit of clutch in him too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROXhoNKt0OI&list=UUrHG7i-sOUMYLfEvoS3CGog&index=12
Nicolas Batum (3 years, 34 million remaining)- Batum cashed in this past summer after Portland matched the RFA offer given to him by Minnesota. He started out the season on an absolute tear, where he was our go to player in many games. He would up averaging 14.3 points, 5 assists and just over 5 rebounds per game, and he managed a few triple doubles. When Batum was playing his best basketball, so were the Blazers. He finished the season with a PER of almost 16, but he was much better in the first half of the season before he experienced nagging injuries with his wrist and shoulder. He missed the last 8 games. Through January, Batum's numbers were better, and he took 3 shots per game more than he did after the wrist injury. After the injury his ppg went down by about 4 per game, and his shooting percentage was just 39% in March. Negatives aside, he was very good in transition on both ends of the court, and has shown the ability to be an elite player chasing down fastbreaks for blocks. He has been worth the contract he was given- a contract I criticized at the time for overspending. A building block for the team, along with the next two players on this list, Batum should have a long future with the club. His on ball defense has to improve, as he struggles against physical slashers. If Batum can stay healthy, there is no reason to think an All-Star appearance could be out of the question in the next few years. If Deng can be an All-Star (twice!), Batum should be able to accomplish the same feat. Without a doubt, Batum will be wearing Blazer red come opening night.
Damian Lillard (3 years 11 million remaining, 2 year team option)- Wearing the letter O, Lillard was our top draft choice last year at #6 overall. I had him as the 5th ranked player in the draft, and I desperately wanted us to draft him. We struck gold. Lillard is going to win the rookie of the year award (it would be beyond shocking if he did not), and he has potential to be an All-Star in the upper echelon of point guards. He has earned the respect of players around the league, and won over all of Blazer Nation. For years one of the most uttered phrases around Blazer talks was "point guard of the future." Look no more: He has arrived. Lillard was a perfect fit next to LA and Batum, and showed incredibly impressive ability to score in a plethora of ways. He got to the rim, he scored deep 3s. He has a good mid-range game and got to the FT line. The biggest weakness in Lillard's game has been his on-ball defense- which other young PG phenom Kyrie Irving struggled with in his rookie year. There is a learning curve for young PG's in the NBA, especially when you go from the Big Sky conference to defending elite opponents. This season, Lillard averaged 19 points per game this year to go with 6.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds. His PER was a solid 16.5, and will most likely only rise from there. The biggest knock on Lillard was not his fault- the number of minutes he played was absurd, and could have contributed to his somewhat lower field goal percentage in the last few weeks of the season. This season was incredibly promising, and Portland can be exuberant about their future superstar. He will be a Blazer for a long time.
LaMarcus Aldridge (2 years, 29.3 million remaining)- Alas we come to the franchise cornerstone (though it could become Lillard over the next few years...). Aldridge ended the season on a fantastic note to go with a fantastic individual season. There are many elite power forwards in the NBA; this year, Love was hurt, Bosh third fiddle, Nowitzki aging, and Griffin not getting any better. LaMarcus Aldridge is the best power forward in the league right now. Offensively, he is tough to guard. Doing most of his work at the left block in one on one situations, he has a nice jump hook and a fadeaway that is nearly impossible to block due to his high release. He has a great jump shot out to 21 feet, and is good in the pick and roll as well. When Andre Miller ran the point he was also the top target in the league for alley-oops. He is a complete package offensively. Defensively, he is almost underrated as well. For years he was regarded as an average post defender at best, but this season his post defense made strides (maybe Meyers Leonard should watch...). This year he averaged 21.1 points and a career high 9.1 rebounds. He also added 2.5 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. His PER was 20.45, a great score. He doesn't hit free agency for 2 more years, and it appears that the core that has been built with Lillard and Batum will be enough to encourage him to sign another contract, but the gun cannot be jumped. At this point there is no chance Aldridge is wearing another jersey next year. He had a good season, and could become an All-Star for 3 consecutive years next year.
There is the squad for this past season. Moving forward, this is how our depth chart currently looks for next year:
1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
Stay tuned for news about the offseason and the draft. Tomorrow is the Nike Hoop Summit. I will be at the game to see all of the fantastic prospects playing. Look for a recap on the blog later this week.
@ZRey12
Bonus: If you didn't have time to watch all of the individual videos, here is a quick montage of the players with some nice highlights. Well made:
1- Lack of Depth: The starting 5 was a unit that was highly regarded, but the bench lacked any players who could step up and make plays. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 37.7 mpg, Damian Lillard averaged 38.6 mpg, and Nic Batum averaged 38.5 mpg. These numbers are ridiculous. Only Durant played more mpg than Lillard- a rookie! Terry Stotts ran the starters into the ground, as nagging injuries started picking up and the guys didn't have the "legs" they had early on, which resulted in less efficient play plagued by poor shooting percentages. I ask myself this question: Did he have any other choice? If Portland was to make a serious playoff run, as they did for the first 65 games, he had to play the best players too much as the bench was essentially worthless. Eric Maynor played well after his arrival from OKC in a mid-season trade (for essentially nothing too)- as he averaged almost 7 points and 4 assists in his time in Portland. That was the best performance we had off of the bench, and we only had him for 27 games. The worst part? Maynor's efficiency with Portland was bad, just like the rest of the bench unit. His PER in Portland was a mediocre 10.6. 15 is league average. Meyers Leonard's PER was 12.1 this season- the best Portland's bench had to offer. While an entire bench unit should not be judged off of one statistic, we did not have one player on our bench play at an AVERAGE efficiency. This is a big issue that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
2- Emergence of Damian Lillard- I touched on this earlier, but Lillard exceeded expectations this year. He won every single rookie of the month award, and looks like the obvious choice for rookie of the year. I had him ranked 5th on my pre-draft big board for 2012- higher than everyone else's boards who I saw- and I still vastly underrated him. I did give him a grade as an All-Star in the future, but he looks like he could be a point guard in the elite tier along the likes of players like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose. The one thing holding Dame back is his defense- which he will learn. He has earned every accolade possible, and won over the entire city of Portland (if not the whole NBA). If any bright spot was brightest this season, it was our rookie point guard. (More on Lillard in detail later- don't worry!)
3- Playoffs or Future?- I wrote about this midseason, and it is still relevant. This team did not have an identity as a playoff team or lottery contender until players started missing games. LaMarcus Aldridge was our rock and go to guy all season, but he isn't the type of power forward to lead a team to the playoffs on his own (for the record- none in the league can). This team has many building blocks for the future, and a very positive outlook, but it was a shame this season had to be sacrificed, as it appears it was in the end.
Here is a run-down on all of the Blazer players of the 2012-13 season, starting with the bench:
Nolan Smith (Unrestricted Free Agent)- Nolan Smith has been very disappointing over the past few years. I thought it was a reach on draft day when we took him (I had him in the low 30s), and I really wanted Faried (whoops...). Smith had potential, as he was a 20ppg scorer at Duke, but he has failed to live up to it. He was a turnover machine in limited minutes this year, and only appeared in 40 games despite being healthy all year. He scored reasonably well while he was in, but he was a liability on both sides of the ball while he was in. Nolan was a great college player, and a good teammate, but I don't see any chance he stays in Portland next year.
Jared Jeffries (2 years/3.1 mil remaining- both years team options)- Jared Jeffries wasn't going to be asked to do a lot. He was going to be asked to be a role model and veteran presence, and provide good defense (and charges galore!) while he was in. He posted the worst efficiency rate on the team, to no surprise. He is not a good offensive player, and is able to take fouls on the defensive end. He only appeared in 38 games, and grabbed 1.5 rebounds in the 9mpg he did play. He was what we thought he was! (Lame quote- I know) I would expect his options to be declined, and I would not expect him to be in Portland next year. If we have an open roster spot in October, though, Jeffries would be a good pick to add as an end-of-the-bench, veteran towel waiver.
Sasha Pavlovic (2 years/2.8 mil remaining- both years team options)- Pavlovic was acquired from Boston in a deal that netted us two second round picks (one in 2013) for the draft rights to Jon Diebler. Pavlovic isn't a great anything in the NBA, but he is experienced, which helped in big games against tough opponents. Like the others on this list, he was not efficient (it will begin to sound like a broken record) with a PER of 6. He is regarded as a good outside shooter, but he shot only 30 percent this year. He is a decent defender, and picks up steals well. Fun fact- Pavlovic shot 17 percent from the FT line this year (1-6). Pavlovic's team option will be declined, making him a UFA with Jeffries and Smith. I would expect him not to be with Portland next year, and if he wants to keep playing it might have to be in Europe.
Elliot Williams (UFA)- Williams suffered a torn Achilles before the season and missed yet another season. He has only played 24 games in 3 years- a number that would make even Greg Oden cringe. Williams showed promise in the games he played, showing off amazing athleticism. He had potential, but the injuries may have damaged much of it. The big knock on E-Will before the year was his lack of an outside jump shot (8-27 NBA, 60-164 college). Without his elite athleticism (Maybe? Don't know if it's really been affected), he will have to become a better shooter to stick. He is an unrestricted FA, but I bet he signs with Portland for 1 year at the minimum for next season. If he proves he can play at a high level, it could be a steal of a contract. If not, it is a low risk investment.
Joel Freeland (2 years/6.1 million remaining)- Freeland was the last pick of the first round in 2006, and he played in Spain until this season when he got his 3 mil/year contract. There was speculation before the season that Freeland would challenge Hickson for a starting spot, but Freeland had issues adjusting to the league, particularly the athleticism of other bigs. Freeland was not efficient (9.4 PER), but he actually looks like a player who will be helpful next season off of the bench. Freeland is a very capable outside shooter, and showed some ability to score in the post. His jump hook shows some promise too. His rebounding was good as well, picking up 2.3 in just over 9 minutes of action. Joel won't ever be a starting quality player in the league, but he doesn't have to be to be considered a success as a draft choice for Portland. He looks like a Carl Landry type player moving forward. He will be on next year's roster.
Victor Claver (2 years/2.7 million remaining)- Claver, like Freeland, was a draft & stash player, as we selected him in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft. He faced some issues in adjusting to the league, but he wound up starting 16 games on the wing, and he looked much better while playing with the starting unit rather than the bench unit. He shows most of his promise as a defender, where he uses his above average length to change shots, and he has good lateral quickness. Claver's ability to shoot the 3 has to improve, as he shot just under 29% on the season. Part of this could involve the transition to the NBA 3-point line. I expect those numbers to rise next year. He, again, was not efficient, but he scored nearly 4 points a game, and showed some ability as a rebounder and secondary distributor. His contract is a great value, and he will be counted upon next year off of the bench for regular rotation minutes. Oh, and he can dunk.
Will Barton (2 years/1.5 mil left, 2nd year team option)- Barton came on at the end of the season as a useful guard off then bench who can penetrate well. He averaged 15 points and 6 rebounds over the last 5 games of the season. Barton's biggest problem lies in his inefficiency (9 PER) and his volume shooting. Part of becoming a successful gunner off of the bench lies in realizing what is a good shot, and when to pass the ball. At times he was a black hole on offense. His defense has to improve as well. On the positive side, he is a very good rebounder for a guard; and, he showed a knack for scoring the ball towards the end of the season, which the bench had not provided all year. He has to improve his 3 point shot, especially from the corner. He could be a viable 6th man candidate next season if all of the FA money is spent on a center. In the video against Dallas, you can see his tendency to overdribble, and force shots, but he has potential that could blossom further next season.
Meyers Leonard (3 years/8 mil remaining- 2 year team option)- My oh Meyers... Leonard brought moments of excitement and moments of stupidity on the court. A rookie who we drafted with the 11th pick, I had him rated as the #18 prospect in the last draft. Offensively is where he excelled the most. He can finish lobs. He has a good mid-range shot. He has a decent post-up game. At 7'1" he runs the court. The other side of the ball is where he struggles a lot. His post defense has to improve. He gave up too many easy looks inside, and didn't block many shots. Much of his lack of defensive production lies in his lack of awareness on that side of the ball. This year he was still below league-average efficiency (12.1), but he managed to score 5.5 a game while grabbing 3.7 boards. I had him pegged as a 2-3 year prospect coming out of college, and that still seems about right. He can still become a starter at the next level, but it will take hard work out of him. Is he tough enough to handle it? Time will tell, but he will definitely be on the roster next year, and we should expect noticeable improvements.
Eric Maynor (RFA- 3.4 mil Qualifying Offer)- Maynor was a big improvement at the backup 1- and 6th man- after the trade deadline. Ronnie Price hadn't played well, which made it easy to give up the draft rights to Printezic for him. After we acquired Maynor he averaged essentially 7/4ast, though he wasn't very efficient. Maynor showed some ability to score on the drive and from 3 point range, and his ability to distribute was a vast improvement over anything that the bench had given all year. In just his 3rd game with the team, he recorded 12 assists off of the bench. Looking at the video, he is very good in transition, and does his best work when he has space to operate, which is not always present in the NBA. At 6'3" he has good size as a PG, and he looks like a backup for his career, though potentially a good one. He has been in the league for 4 years out of VCU, and should get another contract somewhere around the league. ESPN.com's analysis of the free agent market proposed a 2 year 5 million dollar deal as fair for both sides, if he were to return to Portland. I would give his odds of being in Portland next year as 50/50. His rebound numbers are pedestrian, and he needs to up his shooting percentages some to return to league average efficiency. Maynor should at least be considered to be in Portland's long term plans.
Starting Lineup
JJ Hickson (UFA)- Hickson came to Portland at midseason last year after he was surprisingly released from the Sacramento Kings. After signing with Portland, he has become known for powerful dunks and rebounding. This year he averaged 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds, which was good for 7th in the NBA. He recorded 40 double doubles in 80 games this year. Finally, JJ was efficient, posting a PER of almost 20. He flashed a mid-range game every once in a while and blocked an occasional shot, but these are two facets that are not strengths of his game. JJ is an energy player who gets his points off of rebounds and passes. He found some post up opportunities, but he was at his best when receiving a pass when he was ready to score. He is very athletic, which helped him in playing an undersized 5 all season. Let's be honest though- JJ Hickson was a power forward playing center this year. At 6'9", he was undersized against nearly every other starting center in the league. Aldridge has campaigned for a defensive 7 footer next to him, which could lead to JJ's exit from Portland despite his quality play. JJ deserves a contract in the 6-7 million dollar annual range, which would eat up over half of Portland's available cap space. It is likely that a true center will be targeted first before JJ is asked to return. Hickson has had special moments for the team, but he will likely be playing for someone else next year.
Wesley Matthews (2 years 14 million remaining)- In Matthews 3 years as a Blazer he has been very consistent. This year, like the past few, he averaged roughly 15 points and 3 rebounds. He was just below league average efficiency, in part due to his low rebound and assist numbers. A 40% 3 point shooter, Matthews excels in stretching the defense, which also allows him to get to the rim out of his shot fake. He is a complete player who has many good traits and no terrible traits, including great intangibles. His defense is good as well, as he often times guards the stronger of the wing players due to his somewhat stocky frame. He is quick on D, and picked up over a steal per game. In many games the Blazers lost, Matthews did not shoot the ball as well. In wins this year, Matthews shot 47% from 3, compared to 35% in losses. Still a reasonable mark at 35%, this shows how important Matthews is to the team. When he plays well, and is involved early, the team performs better. He was a good fit next to Lillard and Batum because he does not need to handle the ball much- which is good as it is not playing to his strengths. In transition Wes is good, but not great, and sometimes tries to do too much. I fully expect Matthews to be the starting 2 guard again next season, and don't expect him to be used as trade bait to acquire a center to go next to LA. He is the heart and soul of this Blazer team. He's got a little bit of clutch in him too:
Nicolas Batum (3 years, 34 million remaining)- Batum cashed in this past summer after Portland matched the RFA offer given to him by Minnesota. He started out the season on an absolute tear, where he was our go to player in many games. He would up averaging 14.3 points, 5 assists and just over 5 rebounds per game, and he managed a few triple doubles. When Batum was playing his best basketball, so were the Blazers. He finished the season with a PER of almost 16, but he was much better in the first half of the season before he experienced nagging injuries with his wrist and shoulder. He missed the last 8 games. Through January, Batum's numbers were better, and he took 3 shots per game more than he did after the wrist injury. After the injury his ppg went down by about 4 per game, and his shooting percentage was just 39% in March. Negatives aside, he was very good in transition on both ends of the court, and has shown the ability to be an elite player chasing down fastbreaks for blocks. He has been worth the contract he was given- a contract I criticized at the time for overspending. A building block for the team, along with the next two players on this list, Batum should have a long future with the club. His on ball defense has to improve, as he struggles against physical slashers. If Batum can stay healthy, there is no reason to think an All-Star appearance could be out of the question in the next few years. If Deng can be an All-Star (twice!), Batum should be able to accomplish the same feat. Without a doubt, Batum will be wearing Blazer red come opening night.
Damian Lillard (3 years 11 million remaining, 2 year team option)- Wearing the letter O, Lillard was our top draft choice last year at #6 overall. I had him as the 5th ranked player in the draft, and I desperately wanted us to draft him. We struck gold. Lillard is going to win the rookie of the year award (it would be beyond shocking if he did not), and he has potential to be an All-Star in the upper echelon of point guards. He has earned the respect of players around the league, and won over all of Blazer Nation. For years one of the most uttered phrases around Blazer talks was "point guard of the future." Look no more: He has arrived. Lillard was a perfect fit next to LA and Batum, and showed incredibly impressive ability to score in a plethora of ways. He got to the rim, he scored deep 3s. He has a good mid-range game and got to the FT line. The biggest weakness in Lillard's game has been his on-ball defense- which other young PG phenom Kyrie Irving struggled with in his rookie year. There is a learning curve for young PG's in the NBA, especially when you go from the Big Sky conference to defending elite opponents. This season, Lillard averaged 19 points per game this year to go with 6.5 assists and 3.1 rebounds. His PER was a solid 16.5, and will most likely only rise from there. The biggest knock on Lillard was not his fault- the number of minutes he played was absurd, and could have contributed to his somewhat lower field goal percentage in the last few weeks of the season. This season was incredibly promising, and Portland can be exuberant about their future superstar. He will be a Blazer for a long time.
LaMarcus Aldridge (2 years, 29.3 million remaining)- Alas we come to the franchise cornerstone (though it could become Lillard over the next few years...). Aldridge ended the season on a fantastic note to go with a fantastic individual season. There are many elite power forwards in the NBA; this year, Love was hurt, Bosh third fiddle, Nowitzki aging, and Griffin not getting any better. LaMarcus Aldridge is the best power forward in the league right now. Offensively, he is tough to guard. Doing most of his work at the left block in one on one situations, he has a nice jump hook and a fadeaway that is nearly impossible to block due to his high release. He has a great jump shot out to 21 feet, and is good in the pick and roll as well. When Andre Miller ran the point he was also the top target in the league for alley-oops. He is a complete package offensively. Defensively, he is almost underrated as well. For years he was regarded as an average post defender at best, but this season his post defense made strides (maybe Meyers Leonard should watch...). This year he averaged 21.1 points and a career high 9.1 rebounds. He also added 2.5 assists and 1.2 blocks per game. His PER was 20.45, a great score. He doesn't hit free agency for 2 more years, and it appears that the core that has been built with Lillard and Batum will be enough to encourage him to sign another contract, but the gun cannot be jumped. At this point there is no chance Aldridge is wearing another jersey next year. He had a good season, and could become an All-Star for 3 consecutive years next year.
There is the squad for this past season. Moving forward, this is how our depth chart currently looks for next year:
1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
Stay tuned for news about the offseason and the draft. Tomorrow is the Nike Hoop Summit. I will be at the game to see all of the fantastic prospects playing. Look for a recap on the blog later this week.
@ZRey12
Bonus: If you didn't have time to watch all of the individual videos, here is a quick montage of the players with some nice highlights. Well made:
Thursday, April 18, 2013
NBA Playoffs Preview
The regular season ended last night. Portland finished on a 13 game losing streak, and will have the 10th pick in the draft if the lottery plays out as expected (it won't, but odds this small mean we are likely still 10th), and LA made the playoffs by beating Houston and with Utah's loss. After the regular season, here are the match-ups:
East :
1 Miami vs. 8 Milwaukee
Led by the Big 3, Miami comes into the playoffs as the favorite to win it all. Their miraculous win streak (even if the quality of competition was only okay) likely gives Miami the impression that they can beat anyone, and they can. James and Wade are a tough matchup, but Milwaukee has some decent defenders. Mbah A Moute should be on James, and his ability to defend him will depend on whether Milwaukee has any chance whatsoever. The pick: Miami in 4
2 New York vs. 7 Boston
New York is an offensive powerhouse, with shooters everywhere. Anthony won the scoring title, and JR Smith could be 6th man. Add in Tyson Chandler as a fantastic defender and NY has an impressive rotation. Boston has experience on their side. Pierce and Garnett will have to score efficiently and play good defense to halt the aggressive Knicks attack. The key for Boston will be Avery Bradley's ability to exploit Kidd and Felton. The pick: New York in 5
3 Indiana vs. 6 Atlanta
Indiana is a stingy defensive team, and are led by first time All-Star this year Paul George. Josh Smith will likely match-up with George in what could be his last games in a Hawks Jersey. Hibbert and West have to be factors down low, and keep Horford from getting good position down low. If Atlanta does not win, Josh Smith could be wearing a different jersey next year. The pick: Indiana in 6
4 Brooklyn vs. 5 Chicago
This match-up will not get the attention that the BOS/NY matchup will, but it will be the closest series. Chicago is still without Rose (so we think?) and has relied on team basketball to advance. Noah should be good to go, and Boozer/Gibson/Butler/Deng are all capable of scoring 15 points a game. Even without their top player, this is a dangerous team. Brooklyn is led by Deron Williams, who has been playing better over the last month and a half. Wallace has struggled and Lopez could be ineffective against Noah. The X-Factor will be Joe Johnson's ability to score in the 4th quarter. This series will go 7. The pick: Chicago in 7
West:
1 Oklahoma City vs. 8 Houston
Oklahoma City took advantage of SA's slide to snag the top seed. Led by Durant and Westbrook (though the shot totals favor the wrong player) Oklahoma City is the favorite in the West. Martin has been a solid 6th man, and defensive specialists Ibaka and Sefolosha have been great. Houston is led by James Harden, the former Thunder guard, who could be the best 2 guard in the league right now. Yes, that includes the Black Mamba. He will likely have a chip on his shoulder, but he will need other teammates to step up to beat OKC. The pick: OKC in 5
2 San Antonio vs. 7 LA Lakers
San Antonio is a team. LA wants to be a team. The dynamic trio of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili led to some of the best basketball of the season, but are they healthy enough to make a deep run? The Lakers are reeling after Bryant's torn Achilles, but they might actually be better off without him. The X-Factor has to be Steve Nash- can he play? The pick: SA in 6
3 Denver vs. 6 Golden State
Denver doesn't have a stand-out player, but they are the deepest team in the league. Led by Lawson and Iguodala, Denver is considered a favorite in this match-up, but do they have anyone to count on to score late in games? Count in the Gallinari ACL tear, and this team does not look as sturdy. Golden State is led by Stephen Curry, who yesterday broke the 3-pointers made in a season record against Portland. Denver plays good defense, and their ability to contain Curry will help determine the winner of the series. Can Lee be the All-Star GS needs? The pick: Denver in 7
4 LA Clippers vs. 5 Memphis
This series feels like a toss-up. Chris Paul is the best player in the series, but Memphis' frontcourt duo is far superior to the Clippers. Lob City will not get easy dunk looks against Gasol and Randolph. Add in Ed Davis as a big off the bench and Memphis' frontcourt looks sturdy. Back to Paul, he should out play Conley, though he is a good defender in his own right. On the wing is the weakness of both teams, and Jamal Crawford has to exploit this, even if he has Tony Allen on him. In the end, there will be too much defense. The pick: Memphis in 6
For more in-depth analysis as the playoffs progress, and updated predictions, check back when the time comes. For now, here are my predictions for the later rounds in the playoffs.
Miami over Chicago
Indiana over New York
Miami over Indiana
Oklahoma City over Memphis
Denver over San Antonio
Oklahoma City over Denver
Oklahoma City over Miami- 6 games
East :
1 Miami vs. 8 Milwaukee
Led by the Big 3, Miami comes into the playoffs as the favorite to win it all. Their miraculous win streak (even if the quality of competition was only okay) likely gives Miami the impression that they can beat anyone, and they can. James and Wade are a tough matchup, but Milwaukee has some decent defenders. Mbah A Moute should be on James, and his ability to defend him will depend on whether Milwaukee has any chance whatsoever. The pick: Miami in 4
2 New York vs. 7 Boston
New York is an offensive powerhouse, with shooters everywhere. Anthony won the scoring title, and JR Smith could be 6th man. Add in Tyson Chandler as a fantastic defender and NY has an impressive rotation. Boston has experience on their side. Pierce and Garnett will have to score efficiently and play good defense to halt the aggressive Knicks attack. The key for Boston will be Avery Bradley's ability to exploit Kidd and Felton. The pick: New York in 5
3 Indiana vs. 6 Atlanta
Indiana is a stingy defensive team, and are led by first time All-Star this year Paul George. Josh Smith will likely match-up with George in what could be his last games in a Hawks Jersey. Hibbert and West have to be factors down low, and keep Horford from getting good position down low. If Atlanta does not win, Josh Smith could be wearing a different jersey next year. The pick: Indiana in 6
4 Brooklyn vs. 5 Chicago
This match-up will not get the attention that the BOS/NY matchup will, but it will be the closest series. Chicago is still without Rose (so we think?) and has relied on team basketball to advance. Noah should be good to go, and Boozer/Gibson/Butler/Deng are all capable of scoring 15 points a game. Even without their top player, this is a dangerous team. Brooklyn is led by Deron Williams, who has been playing better over the last month and a half. Wallace has struggled and Lopez could be ineffective against Noah. The X-Factor will be Joe Johnson's ability to score in the 4th quarter. This series will go 7. The pick: Chicago in 7
West:
1 Oklahoma City vs. 8 Houston
Oklahoma City took advantage of SA's slide to snag the top seed. Led by Durant and Westbrook (though the shot totals favor the wrong player) Oklahoma City is the favorite in the West. Martin has been a solid 6th man, and defensive specialists Ibaka and Sefolosha have been great. Houston is led by James Harden, the former Thunder guard, who could be the best 2 guard in the league right now. Yes, that includes the Black Mamba. He will likely have a chip on his shoulder, but he will need other teammates to step up to beat OKC. The pick: OKC in 5
2 San Antonio vs. 7 LA Lakers
San Antonio is a team. LA wants to be a team. The dynamic trio of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili led to some of the best basketball of the season, but are they healthy enough to make a deep run? The Lakers are reeling after Bryant's torn Achilles, but they might actually be better off without him. The X-Factor has to be Steve Nash- can he play? The pick: SA in 6
3 Denver vs. 6 Golden State
Denver doesn't have a stand-out player, but they are the deepest team in the league. Led by Lawson and Iguodala, Denver is considered a favorite in this match-up, but do they have anyone to count on to score late in games? Count in the Gallinari ACL tear, and this team does not look as sturdy. Golden State is led by Stephen Curry, who yesterday broke the 3-pointers made in a season record against Portland. Denver plays good defense, and their ability to contain Curry will help determine the winner of the series. Can Lee be the All-Star GS needs? The pick: Denver in 7
4 LA Clippers vs. 5 Memphis
This series feels like a toss-up. Chris Paul is the best player in the series, but Memphis' frontcourt duo is far superior to the Clippers. Lob City will not get easy dunk looks against Gasol and Randolph. Add in Ed Davis as a big off the bench and Memphis' frontcourt looks sturdy. Back to Paul, he should out play Conley, though he is a good defender in his own right. On the wing is the weakness of both teams, and Jamal Crawford has to exploit this, even if he has Tony Allen on him. In the end, there will be too much defense. The pick: Memphis in 6
For more in-depth analysis as the playoffs progress, and updated predictions, check back when the time comes. For now, here are my predictions for the later rounds in the playoffs.
Miami over Chicago
Indiana over New York
Miami over Indiana
Oklahoma City over Memphis
Denver over San Antonio
Oklahoma City over Denver
Oklahoma City over Miami- 6 games
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
7 Round NFL Mock Draft- The real deal
The NFL Draft is in 10 days! An exciting event, some teams will get players who will change the face of the franchise, for better or for worse. Which teams will take QBs? Will they be reaches? What will team X do?
There are so many questions to answer, and it will all be figured out over the next week and a half. Undoubtedly, many sites, and all of the big ones, will put together mock drafts over the next week to give a good picture of how it is going to go. Keep an eye on these drafts with an open mind, as teams will leak information to the media that may/may not be true. Geno Smith could be drafted as high as #2, or he could slip to the end of round 1. You better believe there will be rumors afloat this next week. Pay most attention to the first few rounds, it basically becomes a guess after round 4. Without further ado, here is how the NFL Draft will go (no trades projected- A round 1 mock with trades will occur in the days before the draft):
There are so many questions to answer, and it will all be figured out over the next week and a half. Undoubtedly, many sites, and all of the big ones, will put together mock drafts over the next week to give a good picture of how it is going to go. Keep an eye on these drafts with an open mind, as teams will leak information to the media that may/may not be true. Geno Smith could be drafted as high as #2, or he could slip to the end of round 1. You better believe there will be rumors afloat this next week. Pay most attention to the first few rounds, it basically becomes a guess after round 4. Without further ado, here is how the NFL Draft will go (no trades projected- A round 1 mock with trades will occur in the days before the draft):
| 1 | 1 | Kansas City- Luke Joekel OT/Texas A&M |
| 2 | 2 | Jacksonville- Dion Jordan OLB-DE/Oregon |
| 3 | 3 | Oakland- Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida |
| 4 | 4 | Philadelphia- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan |
| 5 | 5 | Detroit- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama |
| 6 | 6 | Cleveland- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma |
| 7 | 7 | Arizona- Chance Warmack OG/Alabama |
| 8 | 8 | Buffalo- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia |
| 9 | 9 | New York Jets- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU |
| 10 | 10 | Tennessee- Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina |
| 11 | 11 | San Diego- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia |
| 12 | 12 | Miami- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama |
| 13 | 13 | Tampa Bay- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah |
| 14 | 14 | Carolina- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri |
| 15 | 15 | New Orleans- Barkevious Mingo OLB/LSU |
| 16 | 16 | St. Louis- Alec Ogletree LB/Georgia |
| 17 | 17 | Pittsburgh- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia |
| 18 | 18 | Dallas- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas |
| 19 | 19 | New York Giants- Xavier Rhodes CB-S/Florida State |
| 20 | 20 | Chicago- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame |
| 21 | 21 | Cincinnati- Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama |
| 22 | 22 | St. Louis (from Washington)- Keenan Allen WR/Cal |
| 23 | 23 | Minnesota- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee |
| 24 | 24 | Indianapolis- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington |
| 25 | 25 | Minnesota (from Seattle)- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina |
| 26 | 26 | Green Bay- Matt Elam S/Florida |
| 27 | 27 | Houston- Robert Woods WR/USC |
| 28 | 28 | Denver- DJ Hayden CB/Houston |
| 29 | 29 | New England- Datone Jones DE/UCLA |
| 30 | 30 | Atlanta- Tank Carradine DE/Florida State |
| 31 | 31 | San Francisco- Margus Hunt DE/SMU |
| 32 | 32 | Baltimore- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame |
| Pick | Overall pick | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | Jacksonville- Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State |
| 2 | 34 | San Francisco (from Kansas City)- Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida International |
| 3 | 35 | Philadelphia- EJ Manuel QB/Florida State |
| 4 | 36 | Detroit- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State |
| 5 | 37 | Cincinnati (from Oakland)- Justin Pugh G-T/Syracuse |
| 6 | 38 | Arizona- Matt Barkley QB/USC |
| Cleveland (exercised in 2012 supplemental draft) | ||
| 7 | 39 | New York Jets- Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse |
| 8 | 40 | Tennessee- DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson |
| 9 | 41 | Buffalo- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee |
| 10 | 42 | Miami- Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech |
| 11 | 43 | Tampa Bay- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State |
| 12 | 44 | Carolina- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford |
| New Orleans (forfeited) | ||
| 13 | 45 | San Diego- Kyle Long G-T/Oregon |
| 14 | 46 | St. Louis- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State |
| 15 | 47 | Dallas- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M |
| 16 | 48 | Pittsburgh- Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB/UConn |
| 17 | 49 | New York Giants- Gavin Escobar TE/San Diego State |
| 18 | 50 | Chicago- Arthur Brown ILB/Kansas State |
| 19 | 51 | Washington- Kevin Minter ILB/LSU |
| 20 | 52 | Minnesota- Alex Okafor DE/Texas |
| 21 | 53 | Cincinnati- Khaseem Greene OLB/Rutgers |
| 22 | 54 | Miami (from Indianapolis)- Darius Slay CB/Mississippi State |
| 23 | 55 | Green Bay- Monte Ball RB/Wisconsin |
| 24 | 56 | Seattle- John Jenkins DT/Georgia |
| 25 | 57 | Houston- Sio Moore OLB/UConn |
| 26 | 58 | Denver- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State |
| 27 | 59 | New England- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor |
| 28 | 60 | Atlanta- Kawaan Short DT/Purdue |
| 29 | 61 | San Francisco- Terron Armstead OT/Ark. Pine Bluff |
| 30 | 62 | Baltimore- DJ Swearinger S/South Carolina |
| Pick | Overall pick | |
| 1 | 63 | Kansas City- Jesse Williams DT/Alabama |
| 2 | 64 | Jacksonville- Landry Jones QB/Oklahoma |
| 3 | 65 | Detroit- Markus Wheaton WR/Oregon State |
| 4 | 66 | Oakland- Jamie Collins OLB/Southern Miss |
| 5 | 67 | Philadelphia- Jordan Poyer CB/Oregon State |
| 6 | 68 | Cleveland- Mike Glennon QB/NC State |
| 7 | 69 | Arizona- Aaron Dobson WR/Marshall |
| 8 | 70 | Tennessee- Kiko Alonso ILB/Oregon |
| 9 | 71 | Buffalo- Larry Warford OG/Kentucky |
| 10 | 72 | New York Jets- Jonathan Franklin RB/UCLA |
| 11 | 73 | Tampa Bay- Tyler Wilson QB/Arkansas |
| 12 | 74 | San Francisco (from Carolina) Brandon Williams DT/Missouri Southern |
| 13 | 75 | New Orleans- Robert Alford CB/SE Louisiana |
| 14 | 76 | San Diego- Dallas Thomas G-T/Tennessee |
| 15 | 77 | Miami- Corey Lemonieur DE/Auburn |
| 16 | 78 | St. Louis- Andre Ellington RB/Clemson |
| 17 | 79 | Pittsburgh- Giovani Bernard RB/North Carolina |
| 18 | 80 | Dallas- Travis Frederick C/Wisconsin |
| 19 | 81 | New York Giants- Barrett Jones OL/Alabama |
| 20 | 82 | Miami (from Chicago)- Stepfan Taylor RB/Stanford |
| 21 | 83 | Minnesota- Jon Bostic ILB/Florida |
| 22 | 84 | Cincinnati- Eric Reid S/LSU |
| 23 | 85 | Washington- Stedman Bailey WR/West Virginia |
| 24 | 86 | Indianapolis- Brian Winters G/Kent State |
| 25 | 87 | Seattle- Jordan Reed TE/Florida |
| 26 | 88 | Green Bay- Travis Kelce TE/Cincinnati |
| 27 | 89 | Houston- Bennie Logan DT/LSU |
| 28 | 90 | Denver- Christine Michael RB/Texas A&M |
| 29 | 91 | New England- David Amerson CB-S/NC State |
| 30 | 92 | Atlanta- Vance McDonald TE/Rice |
| 31 | 93 | San Francisco- Marcus Lattimore RB/South Carolina |
| 32 | 94 | Baltimore- Tyrann Mathieu CB/LSU |
| 33 | 95 | Houston (Comp)- Brennan Williams OT/North Carolina |
| 34 | 96 | Kansas City (Comp)- Ryan Swope WR/Texas A&M |
| 35 | 97 | Tennessee (Comp)- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU |
| Pick | Overall pick | |
| 1 | 98 | Jacksonville- Da'Rick Rogers WR/Tenn. Tech |
| 2 | 99 | Kansas City- Chase Thomas LB/Stanford |
| 3 | 100 | Oakland- Tyler Bray QB/Tennessee |
| 4 | 101 | Philadelphia- Kenjon Barner RB/Oregon |
| 5 | 102 | Minnesota (from Detroit)- Matt Scott QB/Arizona |
| 6 | 103 | Arizona- John Simon DE/Ohio State |
| 7 | 104 | Cleveland- Zac Dysert QB/Miami (OH) |
| 8 | 105 | Buffalo- Cornelius Washington OLB/Georgia |
| 9 | 106 | New York Jets- Logan Ryan CB/Rutgers |
| 10 | 107 | Tennessee- Joseph Fauria TE/UCLA |
| 11 | 108 | Carolina- BW Webb CB/William & Mary |
| 12 | 109 | New Orleans- Marquise Goodwin WR/Texas |
| 13 | 110 | San Diego- Ricky Wagner OT/Wisconsin |
| 14 | 111 | Miami- Oday Aboushi G-T/Virginia |
| 15 | 112 | Tampa Bay- Tavarres King WR/Georgia |
| 16 | 113 | St. Louis- Montori Hughes DT/Tenn. Martin |
| 17 | 114 | Dallas- David Baktari OT/Colorado |
| 18 | 115 | Pittsburgh- Denard Robinson WR/Michigan |
| 19 | 116 | New York Giants- Quanterus Smith DE/Western Kentucky |
| 20 | 117 | Chicago- Akeem Spence DT/Illinois |
| 21 | 118 | Cincinnati- Jelanki Jenkins LB/Florida |
| 22 | 119 | Washington- Shamarko Thomas S/Syracuse |
| 23 | 120 | Minnesota- Xavier Nixon OT/Florida |
| 24 | 121 | Indianapolis- Brandon Jenkins OLB/Florida State |
| 25 | 122 | Green Bay- Philip Thomas S/Fresno State |
| 26 | 123 | Seattle- David Quessenberry OL/San Jose State |
| 27 | 124 | Houston- JJ Wilcox S/Ga. Southern |
| 28 | 125 | Denver- Sean Porter OLB/Texas A&M |
| 29 | 126 | Tampa Bay (from New England)- Steve Williams CB/California |
| 30 | 127 | Atlanta- Dwayne Gratz CB/UConn |
| 31 | 128 | San Francisco- Josh Boyce WR/TCU |
| 32 | 129 | Baltimore- Zavier Goodson OLB/Missouri |
| 33 | 130 | Baltimore (Comp)- Khaled Holmes C/USC |
| 34 | 131 | San Francisco (Comp)- Levine Toilolo TE/Stanford |
| 35 | 132 | Detroit (Comp)- Le'Veon Bell RB/Michigan State |
| 36 | 133 | Atlanta (Comp)- William Gholston DE/Michigan State |
| Pick | Overall pick | |
| 1 | 134 | Kansas City- Jordan Mills OT/La. Tech |
| 2 | 135 | Jacksonville- Bacarri Rambo S/Georgia |
| 3 | 136 | Philadelphia- Brandon McGee CB/Miami |
| 4 | 137 | Detroit- Hugh Thornton OG/Illinois |
| 5 | 138 | Seattle (from Oakland)- DeVonte Hollimon OLB/South Carolina |
| 6 | 139 | Cleveland- Reid Fragel OT/Ohio State |
| 7 | 140 | Arizona- Duke Williams S/Nevada |
| 8 | 141 | New York Jets- Tharold Simon CB/LSU |
| 9 | 142 | Tennessee- Tony Jefferson S/Oklahoma |
| 10 | 143 | Buffalo- Earl Wolff S/NC State |
| 11 | 144 | New Orleans- Marquess Wilson WR/Washington State |
| 12 | 145 | San Diego- Stepfon Jefferson RB/Nevada |
| 13 | 146 | Miami- Sanders Commings CB/Georgia |
| 14 | 147 | Tampa Bay- Luke Marquadt OT/Asusa Pacific |
| 15 | 148 | Carolina- Theo Riddick WR-RB/Notre Dame |
| 16 | 149 | St. Louis- Dion Sims TE/Michigan State |
| 17 | 150 | Pittsburgh- Ty Powell OLB/Harding |
| 18 | 151 | Dallas- Mike Gillislee RB/Florida |
| 19 | 152 | New York Giants- Jawan Jaimison RB/Rutgers |
| 20 | 153 | Chicago- Kayvon Webster CB/South Florida |
| 21 | 154 | Washington- Will Davis CB/Utah State |
| 22 | 155 | Minnesota- Sean Renfree QB/Duke |
| 23 | 156 | Cincinnati- Trevardo Williams OLB/UConn |
| 24 | 157 | San Francisco (from Indianapolis)- Dustin Hopkins K/Florida State |
| 25 | 158 | Seattle- Everett Dawkins DT/Florida State |
| 26 | 159 | Green Bay- Kenny Stills WR/Oklahoma |
| 27 | 160 | Houston- TJ McDonald S/USC |
| 28 | 161 | Denver- Knile Davis RB/Arkansas |
| 29 | 162 | Washington (from New England)- Brian Schwenke C/California |
| 30 | 163 | Atlanta- Jeff Baca OG/UCLA |
| 31 | 164 | Cleveland (from San Francisco)- Ace Sanders WR/South Carolina |
| 32 | 165 | Baltimore- Chris Harper WR/Kansas State |
| 33 | 166 | Miami (Comp)- Daxton Swanson CB/Sam Houston State |
| 34 | 167 | Green Bay (Comp)- Cobi Hamilton WR/Arkansas |
| 35 | 168 | Baltimore (Comp)- Tanner Hawkinson OT/Kansas |
| Pick | Overall pick | |
| 1 | 169 | Jacksonville- Emmett Cleary OT/Boston College |
| 2 | 170 | Kansas City- Jordan Hill DT/Penn State |
| 3 | 171 | Detroit- Kevin Reddick ILB/North Carolina a |
| 4 | 172 | Oakland- Kyle Juszczyk FB/Harvard |
| 5 | 173 | San Francisco (from Philadelphia through Cleveland)- Aaron Melette WR/Elon |
| 6 | 174 | Arizona- Michael Buchanan DE/Illinois |
| 7 | 175 | Cleveland- Nico Johnson ILB/Alabam |
| 8 | 176 | Oakland (from Tennessee through Minnesota and Arizona)- Devin Taylor DE/South Carolina |
| 9 | 177 | Buffalo- Demetrius McCray CB/Appalachian State |
| 10 | 178 | New York Jets- Onterrio McCaleb RB/Auburn |
| 11 | 179 | San Diego- Ryan Otten TE/San Jose State |
| 12 | 180 | San Francisco (from Miami)- Mike Catapano DE/Princeton |
| 13 | 181 | Tampa Bay- Chris Gragg TE/Arkansas |
| 14 | 182 | Carolina- Ray Graham RB/Pittsburgh |
| 15 | 183 | New Orleans- Michael Mauti ILB/Penn State |
| 16 | 184 | St. Louis- Alvin Bailey OG/Arkansas |
| 17 | 185 | Dallas- Shawn Williams S/Georgia |
| 18 | 186 | Pittsburgh- Kapron Lewis-Moore DE/Notre Dame |
| 19 | 187 | New York Giants- Chris Faulk OT/LSU |
| 20 | 188 | Chicago- Cierre Wood RB/Notre Dame |
| 21 | 189 | Minnesota- Marc Anthony CB/California |
| 22 | 190 | Cincinnati- Joseph Randle RB/Oklahoma State |
| 23 | 191 | Washington- Nicholas Williams DT/Samford |
| 24 | 192 | Indianapolis- Earl Watford OG/James Madison |
| 25 | 193 | Green Bay- Kenny Tate OLB/Maryland |
| 26 | 194 | Seattle- Ryan Griffin QB/Tulane |
| 27 | 195 | Houston- Michael Clay OLB/Oregon |
| 28 | 196 | Tampa Bay (from Denver through Philadelphia) Joe Kruger DE/Utah |
| 29 | 197 | Cincinnati (from New England) Quinton Dial DE/Alabama |
| 30 | 198 | Atlanta- Nickell Robey CB/USC |
| 31 | 199 | Baltimore (from San Francisco)- Micah Hyde CB/Iowa |
| 32 | 200 | Baltimore- Nathan Williams OLB/Ohio State |
| 33 | 201 | Houston (Comp)- Gerald Hodges OLB/Penn State |
| 34 | 202 | Tennessee (Comp)- Malliciah Goodwin DE/Clemson |
| 35 | 203 | Baltimore (Comp)- Kerwynn Williams RB/Utah State |
| 36 | 204 | Kansas City (Comp)- Josh Johnson CB/Purdue |
| 37 | 205 | Oakland (Comp)- Josh Boyd DT/Mississippi State |
| 38 | 206 | Pittsburgh (Comp)- Collin Kelly OT/Oregon State |
| Pick | Overall pick | Team |
| 1 | 207 | Kansas City- Kwame Geathers DT/Georgia |
| 2 | 208 | Jacksonville- Chris Jones DT/Bowling Green |
| 3 | 209 | Oakland- AJ Klein ILB/Iowa State |
| 4 | 210 | Philadelphia- John Boyett S/Oregon |
| 5 | 211 | Detroit- Mike Edwards CB/Hawaii |
| 6 | 212 | Philadelphia (from Cleveland)- Robert Lester S/Alabama |
| 7 | 213 | Minnesota (from Arizona)- Zach Rodgers WR/Tennessee |
| 8 | 214 | Minnesota (via Seattle from Buffalo)- Jordan Rodgers QB/Vanderbilt |
| 9 | 215 | New York Jets- Alec Lemon WR/Syracuse |
| 10 | 216 | Tennessee- Tourek Williams DE/Florida International |
| 11 | 217 | Miami- DJ Harper RB/Boise State |
| 12 | 218 | Philadelphia (from Tampa Bay)- Nick Cody DT/Oregon |
| 13 | 219 | Arizona (from Carolina through Oakland)- Braden Brown OT/BYU |
| 14 | 220 | Seattle (from New Orleans)- Brandon Hepburn LB/Florida A&M |
| 15 | 221 | San Diego- Brad Sorenson QB/Southern Utah |
| 16 | 222 | St. Louis- Nick Kasa TE/Colorado |
| 17 | 223 | Pittsburgh- John Lotulelei LB/UNLV |
| 18 | 224 | Miami (from Dallas)- Amonty Bryant DE/E. C. Oklahoma |
| 19 | 225 | New York Giants- Roger Gaines OT/TCU |
| 20 | 226 | New England (from Chicago through Tampa Bay)- David Bass DE/Missouri Western |
| 21 | 227 | Cleveland (from Cincinnati through San Francisco)- Caleb Sturgis K/Florida |
| 22 | 228 | Washington- Tommy Bohanan FB/Wake Forest |
| 23 | 229 | Minnesota- Brad Wing P/LSU |
| 24 | 230 | Indianapolis- JC Tretter OG/Cornell |
| 25 | 231 | Seattle- Vinston Painter OT/Virginia Tech |
| 26 | 232 | Green Bay- Michael Williams TE/Alabama |
| 27 | 233 | Houston- TJ Moe WR/Missouri |
| 28 | 234 | Denver- Walter Stewart DE/Cincinnati |
| 29 | 235 | New England- Tyrone Goard WR/Eastern Kentucky |
| 30 | 236 | Atlanta- Connor Vernon WR/Duke |
| 31 | 237 | San Francisco- Seth Doege QB/Texas Tech |
| 32 | 238 | Baltimore- Braxton Cave C/Notre Dame |
| 33 | 239 | Philadelphia (Comp)- Melvin Harris WR/North Alabama |
| 34 | 240 | Cincinnati (Comp)- Kenbrell Thompson WR/Cincinnati |
| 35 | 241 | Seattle (Comp)- Leon McFadden CB/San Diego State |
| 36 | 242 | Seattle (Comp)- Philip Steward OLB/Houston |
| 37 | 243 | Atlanta (Comp)- Rontez Miles S/California (PA) |
| 38 | 244 | Atlanta (Comp)- Miguel Maysonet RB/Stony Brook |
| 39 | 245 | Detroit (Comp)- Izaan Cross DT/Georgia Tech |
| 40 | 246 | San Francisco (Comp)- Joseph Vallano DT/Maryland |
| 41 | 247 | Baltimore (Comp)- Brandon Kaufman WR/Eastern Washington |
| 42 | 248 | Tennessee (Comp)- Jordan Devey OT/Memphis |
| 43 | 249 | Atlanta (Comp)- Tom Wort ILB/Oklahoma |
| 44 | 250 | Miami (Comp)- Steve Beauharnais ILB/Rutgers |
| 45 | 251 | Cincinnati (Comp)- Russell Shepard WR/LSU |
| 46 | 252 | San Francisco (Comp)- Sam Schwartzien C/Stanford |
| 47 | 253 | New York Giants (Comp)- Justice Cunningham TE/South Carolina |
| 48 | 254 | Indianapolis (Comp)- Melvin White CB/LA Lafayette |
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