Over the course of the next few weeks I will attempt to write previews of what each team's offseason could potentially look like. Up today is the Magic, who finished the season with the worst record in the NBA last year.
Current Depth Chart:
1 Nelson
2 Afflalo/Richardson/Lamb/Moore
3 Harris/Harkless/Turkoglu
4 Nicholson/Davis/Harrison
5 Vucevic/O'Quinn
Free Agents: Udrih, Eyenga, Jones
They have 13 players on roster thus far for next year, and are right around the salary cap.
Last season's statistical leaders:
Points: Afflalo (16.5)
Rebounds: Vucevic (11.9)
Assists: Nelson (7.5)
Steals: Nelson (1.3)
Blocks: Vucevic (1.0)
Biggest needs: PG, PF
Orlando is solid on the wing. They have good young talent in Aaron Afflalo, Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless, and decent bench options in Doron Lamb and Etwaun Moore. They could potentially use an ugrade by adding a 2 guard who can shoot, but it is not their biggest need. Jameer Nelson is most likely in his last year with Orlando next year, which makes point guard a big need. In addition, the team needs a big man who is a good defender. Nikola Vucevic made big strides last year, and looks like the center of the future. He is a better offensive option, however, and Andrew Nicholson might be better off as a team's #3 big man. Adding a post option who can protect the rim is very important for the Magic.
They do not have much money to spend on free agents, but here are a few low cost options who could be worthwhile:
Beno Udrih- Why not bring him back? He is a competent back-up point guard who is not a risky option. He shoots the ball well from the perimeter and makes good decisions. He is on the downward slope of his career, but would be a cheap one year option.
Anthony Morrow- Morrow is one of the best set shooters in the league. He did not have a great season for the Hawks, which could lead to him being a solid value on a 2 year contract.
Randy Foye- Foye will make the most money in this group, but he fits a need as a scoring combo guard. For 3 years at the mini-midlevel, Foye could sign with Orlando.
In addition, they also have the 2nd and 51st picks in the draft. Here are the best fits for them in the draft (2 in each round)
Nerlens Noel- Noel is a great fit as a defending post option to pair with Vucevic. They would be great compliments to each other, and would be a front line that could compete with many teams in the East.
Trey Burke- Nelson is not in the team's long term plans. Burke has the best potential of any PG in the draft to become a franchise PG, and would fit well in Orlando's system.
Seth Curry- Want a solid outside shooting option? Curry might be one of the best in round 2.
DJ Stephens- The freak athlete from Memphis has lots of potential as a defender at the next level. He would not have pressure to play right away, and could be developed along the same lines as Utah has done with Jeremy Evans.
What does the future look like? The future looks bright. Orlando has reached their floor after losing Dwight Howard. They are 2 years out from the playoffs, and will likely improve their record by 8-12 wins next year if they perform well enough. If Noel lasts to #2, he should be the pick. If not, I would select Trey Burke. A core of Burke, Afflalo and Vucevic is not great now, but could be in 3 years. Adding a solid top ten pick from the 2014 draft could lead the Magic back into playoff contention.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Trade Rumor- Aldridge to Cleveland?
LaMarcus Aldridge has 2 years left with 29.3 million dollars remaining on his contract- A relative bargain for a player with his capabilities. Coming off of a 21/9 season with a PER over 20, Aldridge has made his claim to be the best power forward in the NBA. There are thoughts (as discussed in a previous post) that Portland should look to deal Aldridge because they do not know if he will extend after next season.
My response is still this: Why trade him now? If Aldridge decides not to resign in the future, we can cross that bridge then. Will his trade value deflate some? Probably, but a team should not trade their best asset (probably is Lillard, but still) in trying to predict his future. If Neil Olshey and Terry Stotts are able to help put a winning team on the court, LA will most likely be persuaded to stay anyways. The big deal proposed in trade talks (Grantland) involves Cleveland and Portland. Bill Simmons floated the idea that Portland might have to think hard about a deal for Aldridge where Portland would receive the #1 pick, #19 pick and Tristan Thompson.
If I were a Cavs fan, would I want this? ABSOLUTELY I WOULD! Pairing Aldridge next to Varejao is a great frontcourt, and they would compliment each other very well. Add in an elite point guard, and an athletic 2 guard and you have a definite playoff contender out East. If the trade went through, which top 7 rotation would you prefer?
Cleveland- Irving, Aldridge, Varejao, Waiters, Zeller, Gee, Speights
New York- Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, Smith, Felton, Shumpert, Novak
You'd pick New York right? Here is the silver lining: New York's top 7 listed cost nearly 70 million dollars next year. Cleveland's core 7 would cost around 42 million. For 30 million dollars less you'd have to take the 7 from Cleveland. If the trade went through, you'd have to love it as a Cleveland fan.
Do I want this as a Blazer fan? As I hinted above, I would be very disappointed if this trade went through. Thompson is an improving power forward, but is not on par with LaMarcus Aldridge. Normally, the first pick would be amazing to have, but in this year's draft? Nerlens Noel has potential to be a special defensive player, but he is very raw offensively and is coming off an ACL tear (See: Oden, Bowie, Roy). Ben McLemore is a very good outside shooter, but he does not have the mentality an NBA player should have, and tends to defer too often to teammates. Victor Oladipo will be an all-defensive caliber player, but his offensive game has to be improved upon. Do I take any of these players for Aldridge? No. Especially when you consider the talent available at pick ten will be similar to pick one. Players like Rudy Gobert, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, CJ McCollum, Shabazz Muhammad and Anthony Bennett could all be available at ten, and could all wind up the top player in the draft class. If the same trade had been proposed last year, with a stronger draft class, than I would have had to think much harder. But in a draft class that has a flawed top choice (whomever it may be), I would not recommend trading a multiple time All-Star for the right to choose.
My response is still this: Why trade him now? If Aldridge decides not to resign in the future, we can cross that bridge then. Will his trade value deflate some? Probably, but a team should not trade their best asset (probably is Lillard, but still) in trying to predict his future. If Neil Olshey and Terry Stotts are able to help put a winning team on the court, LA will most likely be persuaded to stay anyways. The big deal proposed in trade talks (Grantland) involves Cleveland and Portland. Bill Simmons floated the idea that Portland might have to think hard about a deal for Aldridge where Portland would receive the #1 pick, #19 pick and Tristan Thompson.
If I were a Cavs fan, would I want this? ABSOLUTELY I WOULD! Pairing Aldridge next to Varejao is a great frontcourt, and they would compliment each other very well. Add in an elite point guard, and an athletic 2 guard and you have a definite playoff contender out East. If the trade went through, which top 7 rotation would you prefer?
Cleveland- Irving, Aldridge, Varejao, Waiters, Zeller, Gee, Speights
New York- Anthony, Stoudemire, Chandler, Smith, Felton, Shumpert, Novak
You'd pick New York right? Here is the silver lining: New York's top 7 listed cost nearly 70 million dollars next year. Cleveland's core 7 would cost around 42 million. For 30 million dollars less you'd have to take the 7 from Cleveland. If the trade went through, you'd have to love it as a Cleveland fan.
Do I want this as a Blazer fan? As I hinted above, I would be very disappointed if this trade went through. Thompson is an improving power forward, but is not on par with LaMarcus Aldridge. Normally, the first pick would be amazing to have, but in this year's draft? Nerlens Noel has potential to be a special defensive player, but he is very raw offensively and is coming off an ACL tear (See: Oden, Bowie, Roy). Ben McLemore is a very good outside shooter, but he does not have the mentality an NBA player should have, and tends to defer too often to teammates. Victor Oladipo will be an all-defensive caliber player, but his offensive game has to be improved upon. Do I take any of these players for Aldridge? No. Especially when you consider the talent available at pick ten will be similar to pick one. Players like Rudy Gobert, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, CJ McCollum, Shabazz Muhammad and Anthony Bennett could all be available at ten, and could all wind up the top player in the draft class. If the same trade had been proposed last year, with a stronger draft class, than I would have had to think much harder. But in a draft class that has a flawed top choice (whomever it may be), I would not recommend trading a multiple time All-Star for the right to choose.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Big Board- Tiers
This post is an extension of the previous post. When many teams draft, they brake their respective boards into tiers, where they take the best player available in a given tier. Here is the caveat though: Tiers are organized by team needs. For example, if the Blazers had a center and a small forward as the top two options in the same tier, they would take the center. Likewise, if the small forward was in a tier higher, he would be taken over the center even though center is a bigger need. I have not separated this into needs for Portland yet- that will come in due time. For now, this is the tier breakdown (subject to change) that each team would have to organize. Each tier is broken down by player ceiling. This is how the board would be broken down at this point:
Tier 1: Future Stars: (Last year had Anthony Davis here)
None
Tier 2: Future All-Stars: (Last year had MKG/Lillard/Beal/Drummond/T-Rob/Barnes here)
None
Tier 3: Good Starters, Fringe All-Stars
Nerlens Noel
Ben McLemore
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter
Trey Burke
Alex Len
CJ McCollum
Tier 4: Solid Starters:
Cody Zeller
Shabazz Muhammad
Dario Saric
Anthony Bennett
Rudy Gobert
Michael Carter-Williams
Dennis Schroeder
Gorgui Dieng
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Tier 5: Fringe Starters/Solid Contributors:
Giannis Antetokoumpo
Steven Adams
Shane Larkin
Sergey Karasev
Jeff Withey
Allan Crabbe
Kelly Olynyk
Mason Plumlee
Nemanja Nedovic
Reggie Bullock
Tier 6: Spot Starters/Potential to be Solid Contributors
Isaiah Canaan
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Jamaal Franklin
Jackie Carmichael
CJ Leslie
Livio Jean Charles
Erick Green
Archie Goodwin
Pierre Jackson
Glen Rice Jr
Lucas Nogueira
Mouhammadou Jaiteh
Tony Mitchell
Brandon Paul
Tony Snell
Tier 7: Solid Role Players
Alex Abrines
Mike Muscala
James Ennis
Andre Roberson
Ricardo Ledo
Ray McCallum
Nate Wolters
Lorenzo Brown
Deshaun Thomas
Kenny Kadji
Tier 8: Could become solid role players:
Carrick Felix
Bojan Dubljevic
Grant Jerrett
Solomon Hill
Seth Curry
Myck Kabongo
Vander Blue
Tier 9: Draftable Players
At this point 58 players are on the list. There will be a few players who teams like and will take from this list. This list goes til #80 on my board:
Marko Todorovic
Erik Murphy
Colton Iverson
Zeke Marshall
Richard Howell
James Southerland
Ryan Kelly
Khalif Wyatt
Jamelle Hagans
Trevor Mbakwe
Phil Pressey
Michael Snaer
Peyton Siva
BJ Young
Norvel Pelle
Adonis Thomas
Brandon Davies
Oleksandr Lypovyy
DJ Stephens
Robert Covington
DeWayne Deadmon
Arsalan Kazemi
Tier 10: Undraftable Players- Summer League Tryout
Most other college players. My top 3 intriguing options: CJ Aiken, Matthew Dellavedova, Will Cherry. BUT I would not draft these players.
Tier 1: Future Stars: (Last year had Anthony Davis here)
None
Tier 2: Future All-Stars: (Last year had MKG/Lillard/Beal/Drummond/T-Rob/Barnes here)
None
Tier 3: Good Starters, Fringe All-Stars
Nerlens Noel
Ben McLemore
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter
Trey Burke
Alex Len
CJ McCollum
Tier 4: Solid Starters:
Cody Zeller
Shabazz Muhammad
Dario Saric
Anthony Bennett
Rudy Gobert
Michael Carter-Williams
Dennis Schroeder
Gorgui Dieng
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Tier 5: Fringe Starters/Solid Contributors:
Giannis Antetokoumpo
Steven Adams
Shane Larkin
Sergey Karasev
Jeff Withey
Allan Crabbe
Kelly Olynyk
Mason Plumlee
Nemanja Nedovic
Reggie Bullock
Tier 6: Spot Starters/Potential to be Solid Contributors
Isaiah Canaan
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Jamaal Franklin
Jackie Carmichael
CJ Leslie
Livio Jean Charles
Erick Green
Archie Goodwin
Pierre Jackson
Glen Rice Jr
Lucas Nogueira
Mouhammadou Jaiteh
Tony Mitchell
Brandon Paul
Tony Snell
Tier 7: Solid Role Players
Alex Abrines
Mike Muscala
James Ennis
Andre Roberson
Ricardo Ledo
Ray McCallum
Nate Wolters
Lorenzo Brown
Deshaun Thomas
Kenny Kadji
Tier 8: Could become solid role players:
Carrick Felix
Bojan Dubljevic
Grant Jerrett
Solomon Hill
Seth Curry
Myck Kabongo
Vander Blue
Tier 9: Draftable Players
At this point 58 players are on the list. There will be a few players who teams like and will take from this list. This list goes til #80 on my board:
Marko Todorovic
Erik Murphy
Colton Iverson
Zeke Marshall
Richard Howell
James Southerland
Ryan Kelly
Khalif Wyatt
Jamelle Hagans
Trevor Mbakwe
Phil Pressey
Michael Snaer
Peyton Siva
BJ Young
Norvel Pelle
Adonis Thomas
Brandon Davies
Oleksandr Lypovyy
DJ Stephens
Robert Covington
DeWayne Deadmon
Arsalan Kazemi
Tier 10: Undraftable Players- Summer League Tryout
Most other college players. My top 3 intriguing options: CJ Aiken, Matthew Dellavedova, Will Cherry. BUT I would not draft these players.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Updated NBA Draft Big Board
As you can tell, there is a link to the right when you first visit the site that has a link to the updated big board. Here is the list:
- Noel is barely holding onto the #1 spot. This is a draft where none of these players truly deserve to go number one. Look for someone to emerge during workouts.
- I am still not convinced Anthony Bennett is a top ten pick. He is essentially Brandon Bass with deeper range. I have heard him compared with Elton Brand, and that he has "All-Star" potential. Don't get me wrong, he can be a good starter in the league if he works at it, but his bust potential is a lot higher than others are admitting.
- Look for 6-7 international players to go in the first round. Others not on this list who could go in rd. 1: Lucas Nogueira, Mouhammadou Jaiteh, Alex Abrines
- Depth in late first is very good. I would be thrilled with a guy like Nedovic or Bullock late in rd. 1- there is value not normally present.
- I still don't know who I want Portland to draft. My favorite options at this point (likely to change):
-Zeller
-McCollum
-Saric
-Gobert
-Anyone who falls from the top 6
- Nerlens Noel C/Kentucky Grade:79
- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas Grade: 79
- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana Grade: 78
- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown Grade: 77
- Trey Burke PG/Michigan Grade: 77
- Alex Len C/Maryland Grade: 76
- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh Grade: 76
- Cody Zeller C/Indiana Grade: 74
- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA Grade: 74
- Dario Saric F/Croatia Grade:73
- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV Grade: 72
- Rudy Gobert C/France Grade:72
- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse Grade: 71
- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany Grade: 70
- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville Grade: 70
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia Grade: 70
- Giannis Adetokunbo SF/Greece Grade: 69
- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh Grade: 69
- Shane Larkin PG/Miami Grade: 69
- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia Grade: 68
- Jeff Withey C/Kansas Grade:68
- Allan Crabbe SG/California Grade: 67
- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga Grade: 66
- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke Grade: 66
- Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia Grade: 65
- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina Grade: 65
- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State Grade: 64
- Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan Grade: 64
- Jamaal Franklin SF/San Diego State Grade: 64
- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State Grade: 64
- Noel is barely holding onto the #1 spot. This is a draft where none of these players truly deserve to go number one. Look for someone to emerge during workouts.
- I am still not convinced Anthony Bennett is a top ten pick. He is essentially Brandon Bass with deeper range. I have heard him compared with Elton Brand, and that he has "All-Star" potential. Don't get me wrong, he can be a good starter in the league if he works at it, but his bust potential is a lot higher than others are admitting.
- Look for 6-7 international players to go in the first round. Others not on this list who could go in rd. 1: Lucas Nogueira, Mouhammadou Jaiteh, Alex Abrines
- Depth in late first is very good. I would be thrilled with a guy like Nedovic or Bullock late in rd. 1- there is value not normally present.
- I still don't know who I want Portland to draft. My favorite options at this point (likely to change):
-Zeller
-McCollum
-Saric
-Gobert
-Anyone who falls from the top 6
All NBA Teams
The All NBA teams came out today. Lebron James was a unanimous choice for first team, joined by Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Tim Duncan. The second team was: Anthony, Westbrook, M. Gasol, Parker and Griffin. The third team was: Wade, Harden, Howard, D. Lee, and George. Did the media get it right?
Here is how my first, second and third teams would look if I picked them:
First Team:
G Chris Paul
G Tony Parker
F LeBron James
F Kevin Durant
C Marc Gasol
Second Team:
G Russell Westbrook
G Kobe Bryant
F Carmelo Anthony
F Paul George
C Tim Duncan
Third Team:
G James Harden
G Stephen Curry
G Dwyane Wade
F David Lee
C Joakim Noah
Here is how my first, second and third teams would look if I picked them:
First Team:
G Chris Paul
G Tony Parker
F LeBron James
F Kevin Durant
C Marc Gasol
Second Team:
G Russell Westbrook
G Kobe Bryant
F Carmelo Anthony
F Paul George
C Tim Duncan
Third Team:
G James Harden
G Stephen Curry
G Dwyane Wade
F David Lee
C Joakim Noah
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Updated NBA Mock Draft
Just a few minutes ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers won their second draft lottery in three years. Orlando earned the #2 pick, and Washington jumped a handful of teams to pick three. Here is my updated mock draft to reflect the draft lottery results:
- Cleveland- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
- Orlando- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
- Washington- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
- Charlotte- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
- Phoenix- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
- New Orleans- Alex Len C/Maryland
- Sacramento- CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh
- Detroit- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
- Minnesota- Shabazz Muhammad SG/UCLA
- Portland- Cody Zeller C/Indiana
- Philadelphia- Rudy Gobert C/France
- Oklahoma City- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
- Dallas- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
- Utah- Shane Larkin PG/Miami
- Milwaukee- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
- Boston- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany
- Atlanta- Dario Saric SF/Croatia
- Atlanta- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
- Cleveland- Giannis Antetokoumpo SF/Greece
- Chicago- Allan Crabbe SG/California
- Utah- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
- Brooklyn- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
- Indiana- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
- New York- Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan
- LA Clippers- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
- Minnesota- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
- Denver- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina
- San Antonio- James Ennis SF/Long Beach State
- Oklahoma City- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
- Phoenix- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
- Cleveland- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
- Oklahoma City- Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia
- Cleveland- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
- Houston- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
- Philadelphia- Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Rapids
- Sacramento- CJ Leslie F/NC State
- Washington- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
- Detroit- Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor
- Portland- Livio Jean-Charles F/France
- Portland- Tony Snell SG/New Mexico
- Memphis- Brandon Paul SG/Indiana
- Philadelphia- Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas
- Milwaukee- Mouhammadou Jaiteh C/France
- Dallas- Ricky Ledo SG/Providence
- Portland- Alex Abrines SG/Spain
- Utah- Nate Wolters PG/North Dakota State
- Atlanta- Ray McCallum PG/Detroit
- LA Lakers- Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State
- Chicago- Andre Roberson PF/Colorado
- Atlanta- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro
- Orlando- Deshaun Thomas SF/Ohio State
- Minnesota- Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro
- Indiana- Seth Curry G/Duke
- Washington- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State
- Memphis- Kenny Kadji PF/Miami
- Detroit- Oleksander Lypovyy SF/Ukraine
- Phoenix- Colton Iverson C/Colorado State
- San Antonio- Grant Jerrett F/Arizona
- Minnesota- James Southerland SF/Syracuse
- Memphis- Zeke Marshall C/Akron
Monday, May 20, 2013
Implications for the NBA Draft Lottery
Tomorrow will be the NBA Draft Lottery, and we will finally find out who will be picking where in the draft. Orlando has the best odds, 25%, to get the top overall pick, though it was been many years since the worst team has earned the top pick. Could this be the year?
This year's lottery has different implications than the past few. The past couple have been "player centered" lotteries, where the winner had a simple choice who to take #1. The past 6 number one picks- Davis, Irving, Wall, Griffin, Rose and (sadly) Oden- were all essential locks to go number one, and were regarded as future multitime allstars. In this year's draft class, there isn't such a player. In 2006, Andrea Bargnani went number 1 overall. That pick was partially due to team needs, rather than best player available, and, a similar story will be seen this year.
Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke and Ben McLemore could all go number one overall. Had Alex Len not injured his ankle, he could have been included on this list too. Other teams have varied needs should they rise in the lottery- and history says they will. In 2007, Portland and Seattle rose from the #'s 6 and 7 spots. Chicago had only a 1.8% chance to land Derrick Rose. The Cavs pick to get Kyrie Irving was the pick from the Clippers that had only a 2% chance to land the top pick. Even New Orleans was not the favorite last year. Anything can happen. Here are the odds, and who they would likely take #1 overall:
Orlando 25%- Noel or Burke
Charlotte 19.9%- Noel
Cleveland 15.6%- Noel
Phoenix 11.9%- McLemore
New Orleans 8.8%- Burke
Sacramento 6.3%- McLemore or Burke
Detroit 3.6%- McLemore
Washington 3.5%- McLemore or Noel
Minnesota 1.9%- Noel or McLemore
Portland 1.1%- Noel
Philadelphia 0.8%- Noel
Toronto 0.7%- Noel
Dallas 0.6%- Burke
Utah 0.5%- Burke
*Portland loses their pick if 3 teams hop them- less than .001% chance of happening, but it needs to be stated regardless.
Would I love Portland to pick 1? YES I WOULD! This may not be a star heavy draft on top, but there are definite good NBA starters out there, and having the pick of the litter is always ideal.
Here is my prediction of how the draft lottery will play out (If i get this right, I will have to do a post of crazy psychic predictions):
1 Phoenix
2 New Orleans
3 Orlando
So congratulations Suns fans! Don't celebrate at all until that final card is removed by Adam Silver.
This year's lottery has different implications than the past few. The past couple have been "player centered" lotteries, where the winner had a simple choice who to take #1. The past 6 number one picks- Davis, Irving, Wall, Griffin, Rose and (sadly) Oden- were all essential locks to go number one, and were regarded as future multitime allstars. In this year's draft class, there isn't such a player. In 2006, Andrea Bargnani went number 1 overall. That pick was partially due to team needs, rather than best player available, and, a similar story will be seen this year.
Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke and Ben McLemore could all go number one overall. Had Alex Len not injured his ankle, he could have been included on this list too. Other teams have varied needs should they rise in the lottery- and history says they will. In 2007, Portland and Seattle rose from the #'s 6 and 7 spots. Chicago had only a 1.8% chance to land Derrick Rose. The Cavs pick to get Kyrie Irving was the pick from the Clippers that had only a 2% chance to land the top pick. Even New Orleans was not the favorite last year. Anything can happen. Here are the odds, and who they would likely take #1 overall:
Orlando 25%- Noel or Burke
Charlotte 19.9%- Noel
Cleveland 15.6%- Noel
Phoenix 11.9%- McLemore
New Orleans 8.8%- Burke
Sacramento 6.3%- McLemore or Burke
Detroit 3.6%- McLemore
Washington 3.5%- McLemore or Noel
Minnesota 1.9%- Noel or McLemore
Portland 1.1%- Noel
Philadelphia 0.8%- Noel
Toronto 0.7%- Noel
Dallas 0.6%- Burke
Utah 0.5%- Burke
*Portland loses their pick if 3 teams hop them- less than .001% chance of happening, but it needs to be stated regardless.
Would I love Portland to pick 1? YES I WOULD! This may not be a star heavy draft on top, but there are definite good NBA starters out there, and having the pick of the litter is always ideal.
Here is my prediction of how the draft lottery will play out (If i get this right, I will have to do a post of crazy psychic predictions):
1 Phoenix
2 New Orleans
3 Orlando
So congratulations Suns fans! Don't celebrate at all until that final card is removed by Adam Silver.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
NBA Draft Combine Analysis
The two days of the NBA Draft combine have ended. After ten hours of analysis that included measurements, athletic testing and drill work, many scouts and GMs have a better look at many prospects. Perhaps the most telling portion of the combine were the individual meetings with teams, who had a chance to interview up to 18 prospects each. Here is my analysis of who helped their stock the most, and who might have damaged theirs negatively:
Up:
Shane Larkin- Larkin measured under 6 feet- to no surprise- but tested out of the gym. He had a 44 inch vertical max- 2nd best in the history of the combine- and also won the lateral sprint. Coupled with a very good shooting performance and he could have paved the way for a late lottery selection.
Cody Zeller- The myth of the 6'8" wingspan was just that- a myth. While his wingspan still was not exemplary, it alleviated concerns that he was not long enough to get his shot off at the next level. His standing vertical was also very impressive. He is a definite top ten pick.
Rudy Gobert- Gobert's 7'9 inch wingspan was legitimate. While he did not test great athletically, he showed he can run the floor well and be quite the defensive presence. The factor determining whether or not he is a bust will be how much he develops offensively. If he gets some post moves he could be a great center in the NBA for a decade. If not he is Saer Sene. I think he will improve enough to help a team a lot.
Isaiah Canaan- Canaan, like Lillard, had a huge scoring role at his mid major college. His distribution and ball handling skills need to improve, but his 40 inch vertical was unexpected. Given the athleticism he showed, he could be an immediate 6th man, and potentially a starter down the road along the lines of a more athletic Jeff Teague as his ceiling.
Down:
BJ Young, Archie Goodwin, Phil Pressey- All three of these guards stood out for the wrong reasons. A quote from Chad Ford said "Goodwin and Young are apparently having a contest to see who can airball the most shots. In a drill with no defense, that is not ideal. Pressey was said to look lost, and measured shorter than even Pierre Jackson. Of this group, I think only Goodwin is draftable.
Kelly Olynyk- For all of the heat Zeller took about his poor wingspan (again, refuted), Olynyk measured a pathetic wingspan. While his game is not reliant on length, this is still a hit to his stock, and most likely knocks him out of lottery consideration.
Up:
Shane Larkin- Larkin measured under 6 feet- to no surprise- but tested out of the gym. He had a 44 inch vertical max- 2nd best in the history of the combine- and also won the lateral sprint. Coupled with a very good shooting performance and he could have paved the way for a late lottery selection.
Cody Zeller- The myth of the 6'8" wingspan was just that- a myth. While his wingspan still was not exemplary, it alleviated concerns that he was not long enough to get his shot off at the next level. His standing vertical was also very impressive. He is a definite top ten pick.
Rudy Gobert- Gobert's 7'9 inch wingspan was legitimate. While he did not test great athletically, he showed he can run the floor well and be quite the defensive presence. The factor determining whether or not he is a bust will be how much he develops offensively. If he gets some post moves he could be a great center in the NBA for a decade. If not he is Saer Sene. I think he will improve enough to help a team a lot.
Isaiah Canaan- Canaan, like Lillard, had a huge scoring role at his mid major college. His distribution and ball handling skills need to improve, but his 40 inch vertical was unexpected. Given the athleticism he showed, he could be an immediate 6th man, and potentially a starter down the road along the lines of a more athletic Jeff Teague as his ceiling.
Down:
BJ Young, Archie Goodwin, Phil Pressey- All three of these guards stood out for the wrong reasons. A quote from Chad Ford said "Goodwin and Young are apparently having a contest to see who can airball the most shots. In a drill with no defense, that is not ideal. Pressey was said to look lost, and measured shorter than even Pierre Jackson. Of this group, I think only Goodwin is draftable.
Kelly Olynyk- For all of the heat Zeller took about his poor wingspan (again, refuted), Olynyk measured a pathetic wingspan. While his game is not reliant on length, this is still a hit to his stock, and most likely knocks him out of lottery consideration.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Pre-Combine NBA Draft Positional Rankings
The NBA Draft Combine begins tomorrow (Wednesday). All of the top collegiate prospects + 2 international players in Rudy Gobert and Dennis Schroeder (All of the other international prospects have conflicts with their teams) are attending. This is last chance for all of the prospects to dramatically improve their draft stock before personal workouts. The players will run through position specific drills and athletic testing in front of scouts, coaches and GMs (And potentially you! Check watchESPN and ESPNU for coverage). Last year, Miles Plumlee emerged from the combine as a 7 footer with a 40 inch vertical and good straight line speed. Despite less-than-stellar collegiate production, he still went in the first round. He did not contribute much this year, but his athletic testing was presumably the reason he went in rd. 1. This year, similar prospects could emerge. Here are my pre-combine, positional NBA Draft rankings:
*Big Board Rankings in Parenthesis
Point Guard:
1. Trey Burke/Michigan (4)- Burke was the best player in college basketball, as evidenced by his national awards. At the next level he shows a fantastic ability to get into the lane, an improving outside jump shot, and good distribution skills. Athletically he should test as very quick. The biggest weakness is Burke's size, though his other attributes will overshadow this significantly. I think Burke is a lock to go in the top 5, and could go #1 overall if Orlando picks first.
2. CJ McCollum/Lehigh (5)- Coming off of a broken foot, McCollum is reportedly available to participate in the combine. More of a combo guard, McCollum will test with the other point guards to prove he can hold his own. He was a dynamic scorer at Lehigh, and was a good rebounder for a guard, but his assist totals were not ideal. Just like Damian Lillard last year, he had more of a responsibility to score, which could have hurt his assist totals. I am not saying he is a Lillard-esque prospect- he is not- but he grades as a very solid starter if he can prove he can play the 1.
3. Dennis Schroeder/Germany (13)- Schroeder had his coming out party at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he showed an ability to score efficiently from the inside and outside, and distribute to his teammates in a position to score. He has Rondo-like measurements, and reminds me of Darren Collison due to his quick first step and ability to defend the point. He projects as a starter at the next level as his ceiling, and has passed Michael Carter-Williams on my board.
4. Michael Carter-Williams/Syracuse (14)- I still think MCW is a lottery talent, and he has the same grade as Schroeder (71) despite being one slot lower. He is a bit of an enigma to me. He put up gaudy non-conference assist totals, but struggled mightily with his shot and assist rate in Big East play. He has an NBA body, and is a terrific defender (when he wants to be), but has to improve his motor and decision making skills. 14 should be as low as he falls on my board, and with a good combine, could again rise up to the top 10.
5. Nemanja Nedovic/Serbia (26)- *Nedovic is not attending the combine. Nedovic is one of my favorite prospects in the draft due to his athleticism (41 inch vertical) and style of play. He is a great slasher and good outside shooter, and a solid defender on the ball. The biggest knock on Nedovic is that he is not a pure PG, rather a combo guard. If he can prove he can be a point guard, he could be Goran Dragic. I love Nedovic as a prospect, and would take him between 20-30 on draft day. More realistically, he goes in the beginning of rd. 2 (Crossing my fingers for Portland).
6. Shane Larkin/Miami (27)- I was surprised Larkin declared, as he could have risen higher with another good season at Miami. Larkin has deep range on his jump shot, and uses his small frame and quickness to get past defenders into the lane. He is a good ball handler and passer, but tends to struggle some when he gets into the lane, where taller defenders roam. His decision making has to improve, but he offers lots of potential as a backup PG, and scorer off the bench.
7. Erick Green/Virginia Tech (29)- Green is a prospect who is, again, a combo guard and not a pure PG. He looks to score first, as evidenced by his NCAA leading 25 points per game. He is a good rebounder and passer (when he wants to be). He reminds me of what we thought Toney Douglas would become. His ceiling is most likely as a 6th man, but his versatility lends well to his draft stock. I am intrigued to see how he tests athletically.
8. Isaiah Canaan/Murray State (33)- Canaan has been the face of the Murray State squad for the past few seasons. He led the team to a 2nd round NCAA tournament game last year, upsetting Vanderbilt. Canaan has to prove he can be a valuable distributor, as he had a huge scoring role the past few seasons. He is only an average athlete, and will struggle defending at the next level. Testing well athletically would help his stock, and go nicely with his deep range and scoring ability.
9. Pierre Jackson/Baylor (34)- Jackson is little. UW's Isaiah Thomas little. That didn't stop him from putting up great numbers at Baylor though. Last season he averaged nearly 20 points and over 7 assists per game. He had lots of talent around him at Baylor, but the team did not perform well down the stretch. A volume shooter, he needs to get into a rhythm to score efficiently. That said, he can help a playoff contender at the end of rd. 1 increase their depth. A good combine could boost him to rd. 1 territory.
10. Lorenzo Brown/NC State (40)- Brown is the opposite of Jackson. He has great vision and an NBA frame at 6'4". His biggest downfall is his lack of outside jump shot. He is, in a way, a poor man's Kendall Marshall, who struggled in Phoenix this year. If he can become a better shooter, and test better than expected athletically, he could rise back up the board to late rd. 1, where he was thought to go before the season.
Next 3: Myck Kabongo (41), Ray McCallum (48), Nate Wolters (52)
Shooting Guard:
1. Ben McLemore/Kansas (2)- McLemore has the potential to be the best shooter in this draft class. Like Burke, there are many teams who might take McLemore #1 should they win the draft lottery (Phoenix, Detroit). Blessed physically, he is a good defender (could get better) and scores in lots of ways. McLemore just has to develop the mentality that he can take over a game. If he does, he could be an All-Star. If not he is a better version of Brandon Rush.
2. Victor Oladipo/Indiana (8)- Shumpert shows a lot of potential as a defender. Think Iman Shumpert. He is an improving outside shooter, and has superb athleticism- as showcased by his highlight dunks. Oladipo won't be a star, but teams will line up for him on draft day. 3 and D players are always nice. He has to become a better ball handler and passer, as his turnover rate cannot be as high as it was in college. He is currently ranked #8 on my board, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him go in the top 5.
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Georgia (16)- Pope has been a fast riser on this board. He led a bad Georgia team in scoring and rebounding, and shot an impressive 37% from 3 point range. He will test very well athletically, highlighting his defensive potential. He was a bit of a volume shooter at Georgia, and is not a very good ball-handler/passer for a guard. Look for him to try to improve this viewpoint at the combine.
4. Archie Goodwin/Kentucky (21)- Goodwin was rated in my preseason top 10, and had a disappointing season, especially after the injury to Nerlens Noel. He is a good ball handler, but a poor outside shooter. He gets to the rim well, but tends to make bad decisions. His upside is higher than others who could go in the late first round, but he is a higher risk player as well. A good combine might alleviate concerns about the risks associated with Goodwin.
5. Allan Crabbe/California (22)- Crabbe is a fantastic outside shooter. For Cal this past season, he averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds, but only shot 35% from 3 point range (career low). I expect Crabbe to bounce back to the 40% levels he was previously shooting as he won't ever be the focal point for opposing defenses. His ceiling would be a Klay Thompson-esque role. If he doesn't ever become more than a spot shooter though, he is Anthony Morrow. A good showing at the combine could make him a first round lock.
6. Jamaal Franklin/San Diego State (28)- Franklin is a fantastic athlete- the combine results will assure us of this. He is a fantastic rebounder for a guard (9.5 per game!). He has good assist totals, and is good in transition, but in a half court game his value dramatically decreases. He is a poor outside shooter with bad mechanics. To stick in the league he has to improve, and improve his defense. He is solid now, but has to be better than good to stick in a rotation.
7. Brandon Paul/Illinois (37)- Paul is a scorer. Late in games, Paul had the ball in his hands. He is primarily a jump shooter, with good range on his 3 point shot. He needs to improve his shot selection and his defense, where his motor tends to struggle. When his offense struggles, his defense tends to struggle as well. If he tests well athletically, look for Paul to find a spot in someone's rotation.
8. Alex Abrines/Spain (42)- Abrines is only 19, but has received minutes for a Barcelona squad that advanced to the Eurocup final. His numbers are underwhelming, but the fact that he has played against men, compared to college/high school students, for the past year could lend well to a quick transition. He is a few years away, and not at the combine, but he could wind up being a great pick for a team in 3 years. Paging San Antonio?
9. Glen Rice Jr/Rio Grande Vipers (43)- Rice is a very good basketball player. He is a great shooter (no shock) and a fantastic athlete. He is a plus defender as well, and led his team to the D-League Championship. He has legitimate 6th man potential. What is holding him back from being higher on this list? He was kicked off of his college team at Georgia Tech for multiple violations, and does not have the best basketball IQ. He has all of the attributes, but could be a liability due to his decision making on and off the court.
10. Ricardo Ledo/Providence (44)- Ledo was a dynamic scorer in high school, and was a top recruit for Providence. His poor grades would not qualify him to compete at Providence however. He has an NBA frame, and is a good scorer, but his lack of gameplay over the past year will hurt him. Since he entered the draft anyways, he would have been better off playing in the D-League last year. Will his poor mental toughness hold him back? Look for him to shoot often at the combine, and if he shoots well, late first is not out of the question.
Next 3: Vander Blue (45), Tim Hardaway Jr. (46), BJ Young (49)
Small Forwards:
1. Otto Porter/Georgetown (3)- Porter is incredibly versatile. He can get his own shot, defend multiple positions, and has a great motor. He does not have any elite characteristics, but the same was said of other players who had great NBA seasons, like Brandon Roy. Porter could be an excellent #2 or 3 starter for a team. He should test well athletically. He could be a Ron Artest type player without all the drama.
2. Shabazz Muhammad/UCLA (7)- Muhammad is versatile as well. He is a solid spot-up shooter, terrific offensive rebounder, and scores well via post up situations. He is a good ball handler, but an atrocious passer. He is very selfish offensively, but with better teammates in the NBA that might improve. Muhammad is good in passing lanes, and has an NBA body (albeit a few inches shorter than most SFs), but off-court issues will haunt him. After a scandal where he was found to be a year older than advertised, character concerns persist. He could fall out of the lottery, but he has good talent and athleticism to perform at a starter level in the NBA. He needs a great combine.
3. Dario Saric/Croatia (11)- Saric is a 6'10" point forward who excels on the offensive end. He is a capable outside shooter (could get better), a good rebounder, and a great passer and ball handler. His court vision is tops in the draft. Defensively, he needs to add strength, but he is a good shot blocker and moves laterally well. He looks like a Hedo Turkoglu/Tayshaun Prince type player. Saric has off-court concerns regarding a DUI and late night partying. He also hasn't shown the best motor on the court. He is very talented, but needs to mature to be successful in the NBA.
4. Sergey Karasev/Russia (17)- Karasev is one of the top shooters in the draft, shooting near 50% in Russia last season. He reportedly had great practices in preparation for the Nike Hoop Summit, but struggled in the game, where he had too many turnovers and forced shots. He could be a Rudy Fernandez type player in the NBA. Like Rudy when he came to the NBA, he needs to improve his defense, but his offense would help lots of teams right away.
5. Giannis Antetokoumpo/Greece (20)- Antetokoumpo does it all- shoots the ball well, handles the ball well, and defends well. He has a great wingspan, and has potential to be a terrific NBA player. The biggest issue with Giannis is that he is VERY raw. He has been playing in the 2nd tier in Greece, which has been compared to good high school level basketball. His potential is off the charts, but he is still 3-4 years away from being able to contribute. A patient team could reap benefits well though. Remember how raw Ibaka was when he was picked? Antetokoumpo will not attend the combine.
6. Reggie Bullock/North Carolina (24)- Bullock is another jack-of-all-trades player, though to a lesser extent than Porter. Bullock is a terrific outside shooter, and decent defender. He shoots more than half of his shots from 3 point range, which makes him somewhat limited at the next level. When he goes inside, he shows some promise. Of concern is that Roy Williams supposedly advised Bullock not to enter. I think he winds up as a late first round pick, and could carve out a Jared Dudley like role.
7. Livio Jean-Charles/France (32)- Jean-Charles is a combo forward along the same lines as Dante Cunningham. His Euroleague numbers are underwhelming, but he exploded onto the scene at the Nike Hoop Summit, where his double-double led him to win the MVP for the night. He shows a confident mid-range game and a solid touch to score inside. As a complimentary player early in round 2, he could be a fantastic pick. He is only 19 as well. Jean-Charles will not be attending the combine.
8. Andre Roberson/Colorado (39)- Roberson might have been the best rebounder in college basketball last year, and could be the best rebounder in the draft. Can that alone get him drafted in rd. 1? He is an inconsistent shooter, and while he is athletic, he does not always use it to exploit his opponents. As a defender, he should have some success, though he will struggle guarding 4's if he cannot prove to be a 3 in the league. He needs to show he has a perimeter game at the combine.
9. DeShaun Thomas/Ohio State (47)- Thomas is a great scorer, and will most likely be used in a stretch 4 role at the next level. He has deep range on his 3 point shot, and is not afraid to shoot, but his shot selection is troublesome at times. His defense is average at best, as he is not a great athlete. His ability to score will get him drafted in the second round, but can he offer more?
10. Solomon Hill/Arizona (56)- Hill is a polished senior who may not have much potential left. He is, however, a good shooter and defender- 2 valuable assets to offer for 10mpg off of a team's bench. He looks like a role player at best, but players like him always seem to stick in the league longer than expected. He could be a shorter Jared Jeffries.
Next 3: Tony Snell (57), Ryan Kelly (61), DJ Stephens (69)
Power Forward:
1. Nerlens Noel/Kentucky (1)- Noel has the best chance to be an All-Star in this draft. He reminds me of Ben Wallace due to his shot blocking and rebounding abilities. He scores well in limited opportunities around the hoop, and is a great alley-oop target. His offense is raw, but he is the best all-around defender in the draft. His ACL tear likely won't prevent him from being a top 3 pick, and he is the favorite to go #1 overall.
2. Anthony Bennett/UNLV (10)- Bennett looks like a Paul Millsap type player at the next level. He is a good outside shooter- not to 3 point range yet- a terrific rebounder, and has an NBA body. He is undersized, but with a great wingspan. His motor is the biggest concern, as he does not always play hard. He is not very quick, and will have to guard bigger opponents for much of his playing time. If he can adapt his skills to playing against bigger, more athletic opponents, than he is rated too low at #10. Bennett had rotator cuff surgery and will not participate at the combine.
3. Kelly Olynyk/Gonzaga (19)- Olynk is a smooth athlete at 7'0" with good perimeter skills. In the post up, he likes to get all the way to the rim, and he hits jump shots from the high post. He could be an Andrea Bargnani type player- someone who can score, but does he help lead to wins? He is only an average defender, which is where he will find most of his issues towards getting consistent playing time.
4. Mason Plumlee/Duke (23)- Plumlee might have the best motor in the draft. He works very hard, and is a very good post defender and rebounder. Offensively, he is very raw for a senior. He has little ability to create offensively, but excels scoring in putback situations. He will find a role along the lines of Nick Collison and Tyler Hansbrough at the next level. Plumlee won't be a sexy pick in round 1, but fans of his new team will love how hard Plumlee fights.
5. Jackie Carmichael/Illinois State (30)- Carmichael is one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. Very few people have Carmichael rated in the top 30, but I think he could carve out a Taj Gibson-like role at the next level. He has an NBA body and plays physical, which lends well for him to get lots of rebounds. He scores in the mid range well, but does not have much of a post up game. His ceiling might not be too high, but he looks like a definite rotation player for 8-10 years.
6. Tony Mitchell/North Texas (36)- I expected significant development from Mitchell this year- and a potential lottery pick- but he actually regressed. His scoring, rebounding and block numbers all went down despite receiving more minutes. He has a questionable motor, and fouls often. He has to improve his jump shot to make him more appealing of a prospect. Mitchell might be the player who needs a great combine the most.
7. CJ Leslie/NC State (37)- Leslie has not improved as expected either. He is a great leaper and rebounder, but does not always play hard. He has less of a mid-range game than Mitchell. He scores well in post up situations, but also takes questionable shots that will be even more difficult at the next level. He has potential, and is worth a look early in round 2.
8. Grant Jerrett/Arizona (51)- Jerrett made a big mistake leaving Arizona after 1 year. A top 10 high school recruit, Jerrett failed to be more than an average college player last year. He has lots of potential, and can step out to midrange with good efficiency, but his body is not ready for the NBA. He rebounds well when in position, but does not have adequate strength yet. He looks like a project with good potential. He needs a great combine.
9. Richard Howell/NC State (53)- Howell is a terrific rebounder. He has virtually no offensive game outside of dump offs and offensive rebounds, but makes up for it with a constant motor and better than average defense. He is slightly undersized, but his near-elite level rebounding might be enough to get him picked in rd. 2.
10. Erik Murphy/Florida (60)- Murphy is a stretch 4 with good size. He looks like a Matt Bonner type player- which is no insult. Murphy shoots the three very well and rebounds well despite a lack of physicality. Given the trend of teams playing stretch 4s, I would be shocked if Murphy does not hear his name at some point on draft night.
Next 3: Jamelle Hagins (65), CJ Aiken (70), Trevor Mbakwe (72)
Centers:
1. Alex Len/Maryland (6)- Len has great size at 7'1" and is a surprisingly versatile center. He has shown the ability to shoot the ball well out to 18 feet, and has the most polished post-up game in the draft (though he didn't always get looks in the post). He needed more touches (had Gary Williams still been coaching, he wouldn't have been misused). As a defender, he needs to get stronger, but he shows good athleticism and rebounding skills. He could be a steal if he does not go in the top 5 picks. Len had ankle surgery and will not compete at the combine.
2. Cody Zeller/Indiana (9)- Zeller has faced more criticism than many of the other top prospects. He was hailed as a potential #1 pick in preseason, but being rated #9 seems about right. He has a less than ideal wingspan, but should test well in all of the other athletic categories. He is very skilled, and is a good ball handler and the best inside scorer in the draft. He does have weaknesses, but teams should be careful not to overlook him on draft night.
3. Rudy Gobert/France (12)- Gobert is raw, but blessed with an elite 7'9" wingspan (not a typo). He is a terrific shot blocker and rebounder, and runs the court very well, making him a weapon in transition. He has some post up game, but needs to get better. He will be a good asset in the pick and roll game, but needs to get stronger. With a scoring PF next to him, Gobert could be an excellent center to start alongside him. He is one of 2 Euros at the combine.
4. Gorgui Dieng/Louisville (15)- Dieng is ready to step in and help a team. He is a very good defender and rebounder, and helps out offensively by scoring in the midrange game and on putbacks. He is also the best passer out of the high post in the draft. Shot blocking is one of his best attributes, but he has to learn to defend without fouling. Adding some strength is needed.
5. Jeff Withey/Kansas (18)- Withey, like Dieng, could help a team right away. He is not as polished offensively, as he has no midrange game. He is a better shot blocker and rebounder than Dieng, but looks to have less upside. He shows maturity and a high basketball IQ on the court. Lots of teams need a center like Withey, and he could rise on draft day.
6. Steven Adams/Pittsburgh (25)- Adams is very raw. He is a very good rebounder and shot blocker, but fouls often and is a non-factor offensively. He has an NBA body, but is still years away. A big combine will help improve his draft stock, but he looks like a player who will need 4 years to make an impact. He will see lots of time in the D-League next year. Negatives aside, he has lots of potential, and could be a smarter JaVale McGee in 5 years.
7. Mouhammadou Jaiteh/France (31)- Jaiteh is a built 6'11 center, and is a good rebounder and shot blocker (sense a common theme?). Like Adams, he is very raw offensively. At the Nike Hoop Summit, he put up pedestrian numbers, but played good defense not seen by a box score. He looks like a draft and stash guy for the next 3 years. Jaiteh will not be participating at the draft combine.
8. Lucas Nogueira/Brazil (35)- Nogueira is tall and long, along the lines of Hasheem Thabeet, at 7'1". He is athletic and runs the court well, but is, like the last two players, very raw offensively. He has a lower basketball IQ than the previous two players on the list, and is better served continuing his development overseas for the next 2-3 years. "Bebe" will not be attending the draft combine.
9. Mike Muscala/Bucknell (50)- Muscala led a good Bucknell team to the NCAA tournament, though failed to have a profound impact on the game. He is a good shot-blocker, and, unlike the previous players, can contribute offensively from day 1. He has a good series of post-moves and a decent mid range shot. Defensively he struggles one on one, and should get stronger. His ceiling is not very high, but for a team looking for immediate help Muscala is an appealing option.
10. Zeke Marshall/Akron (63)- Marshall's best attribute is his shot blocking- he is in a class with Withey and Noel. His biggest flaws are his lack of toughness- a necessity in the NBA post- and a lack of offensive game. He shows some post up ability, but good NBA centers will defend it easily. If he develops a mid-range game he has potential to stick in the league. Without improvements he is just another Jarvis Varnardo- a player fighting from 10 day contract to 10 day contract.
Next 3: Norvel Pelle (66), Marko Todorovic (67), Aziz N'Diaye (77)
Which players will emerge out of the combine and send their stock to unprecedented levels? Time will tell. The three players I expect to have the biggest combine are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroeder and Steven Adams.
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*Big Board Rankings in Parenthesis
Point Guard:
1. Trey Burke/Michigan (4)- Burke was the best player in college basketball, as evidenced by his national awards. At the next level he shows a fantastic ability to get into the lane, an improving outside jump shot, and good distribution skills. Athletically he should test as very quick. The biggest weakness is Burke's size, though his other attributes will overshadow this significantly. I think Burke is a lock to go in the top 5, and could go #1 overall if Orlando picks first.
2. CJ McCollum/Lehigh (5)- Coming off of a broken foot, McCollum is reportedly available to participate in the combine. More of a combo guard, McCollum will test with the other point guards to prove he can hold his own. He was a dynamic scorer at Lehigh, and was a good rebounder for a guard, but his assist totals were not ideal. Just like Damian Lillard last year, he had more of a responsibility to score, which could have hurt his assist totals. I am not saying he is a Lillard-esque prospect- he is not- but he grades as a very solid starter if he can prove he can play the 1.
3. Dennis Schroeder/Germany (13)- Schroeder had his coming out party at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he showed an ability to score efficiently from the inside and outside, and distribute to his teammates in a position to score. He has Rondo-like measurements, and reminds me of Darren Collison due to his quick first step and ability to defend the point. He projects as a starter at the next level as his ceiling, and has passed Michael Carter-Williams on my board.
4. Michael Carter-Williams/Syracuse (14)- I still think MCW is a lottery talent, and he has the same grade as Schroeder (71) despite being one slot lower. He is a bit of an enigma to me. He put up gaudy non-conference assist totals, but struggled mightily with his shot and assist rate in Big East play. He has an NBA body, and is a terrific defender (when he wants to be), but has to improve his motor and decision making skills. 14 should be as low as he falls on my board, and with a good combine, could again rise up to the top 10.
5. Nemanja Nedovic/Serbia (26)- *Nedovic is not attending the combine. Nedovic is one of my favorite prospects in the draft due to his athleticism (41 inch vertical) and style of play. He is a great slasher and good outside shooter, and a solid defender on the ball. The biggest knock on Nedovic is that he is not a pure PG, rather a combo guard. If he can prove he can be a point guard, he could be Goran Dragic. I love Nedovic as a prospect, and would take him between 20-30 on draft day. More realistically, he goes in the beginning of rd. 2 (Crossing my fingers for Portland).
6. Shane Larkin/Miami (27)- I was surprised Larkin declared, as he could have risen higher with another good season at Miami. Larkin has deep range on his jump shot, and uses his small frame and quickness to get past defenders into the lane. He is a good ball handler and passer, but tends to struggle some when he gets into the lane, where taller defenders roam. His decision making has to improve, but he offers lots of potential as a backup PG, and scorer off the bench.
7. Erick Green/Virginia Tech (29)- Green is a prospect who is, again, a combo guard and not a pure PG. He looks to score first, as evidenced by his NCAA leading 25 points per game. He is a good rebounder and passer (when he wants to be). He reminds me of what we thought Toney Douglas would become. His ceiling is most likely as a 6th man, but his versatility lends well to his draft stock. I am intrigued to see how he tests athletically.
8. Isaiah Canaan/Murray State (33)- Canaan has been the face of the Murray State squad for the past few seasons. He led the team to a 2nd round NCAA tournament game last year, upsetting Vanderbilt. Canaan has to prove he can be a valuable distributor, as he had a huge scoring role the past few seasons. He is only an average athlete, and will struggle defending at the next level. Testing well athletically would help his stock, and go nicely with his deep range and scoring ability.
9. Pierre Jackson/Baylor (34)- Jackson is little. UW's Isaiah Thomas little. That didn't stop him from putting up great numbers at Baylor though. Last season he averaged nearly 20 points and over 7 assists per game. He had lots of talent around him at Baylor, but the team did not perform well down the stretch. A volume shooter, he needs to get into a rhythm to score efficiently. That said, he can help a playoff contender at the end of rd. 1 increase their depth. A good combine could boost him to rd. 1 territory.
10. Lorenzo Brown/NC State (40)- Brown is the opposite of Jackson. He has great vision and an NBA frame at 6'4". His biggest downfall is his lack of outside jump shot. He is, in a way, a poor man's Kendall Marshall, who struggled in Phoenix this year. If he can become a better shooter, and test better than expected athletically, he could rise back up the board to late rd. 1, where he was thought to go before the season.
Next 3: Myck Kabongo (41), Ray McCallum (48), Nate Wolters (52)
Shooting Guard:
1. Ben McLemore/Kansas (2)- McLemore has the potential to be the best shooter in this draft class. Like Burke, there are many teams who might take McLemore #1 should they win the draft lottery (Phoenix, Detroit). Blessed physically, he is a good defender (could get better) and scores in lots of ways. McLemore just has to develop the mentality that he can take over a game. If he does, he could be an All-Star. If not he is a better version of Brandon Rush.
2. Victor Oladipo/Indiana (8)- Shumpert shows a lot of potential as a defender. Think Iman Shumpert. He is an improving outside shooter, and has superb athleticism- as showcased by his highlight dunks. Oladipo won't be a star, but teams will line up for him on draft day. 3 and D players are always nice. He has to become a better ball handler and passer, as his turnover rate cannot be as high as it was in college. He is currently ranked #8 on my board, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him go in the top 5.
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Georgia (16)- Pope has been a fast riser on this board. He led a bad Georgia team in scoring and rebounding, and shot an impressive 37% from 3 point range. He will test very well athletically, highlighting his defensive potential. He was a bit of a volume shooter at Georgia, and is not a very good ball-handler/passer for a guard. Look for him to try to improve this viewpoint at the combine.
4. Archie Goodwin/Kentucky (21)- Goodwin was rated in my preseason top 10, and had a disappointing season, especially after the injury to Nerlens Noel. He is a good ball handler, but a poor outside shooter. He gets to the rim well, but tends to make bad decisions. His upside is higher than others who could go in the late first round, but he is a higher risk player as well. A good combine might alleviate concerns about the risks associated with Goodwin.
5. Allan Crabbe/California (22)- Crabbe is a fantastic outside shooter. For Cal this past season, he averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds, but only shot 35% from 3 point range (career low). I expect Crabbe to bounce back to the 40% levels he was previously shooting as he won't ever be the focal point for opposing defenses. His ceiling would be a Klay Thompson-esque role. If he doesn't ever become more than a spot shooter though, he is Anthony Morrow. A good showing at the combine could make him a first round lock.
6. Jamaal Franklin/San Diego State (28)- Franklin is a fantastic athlete- the combine results will assure us of this. He is a fantastic rebounder for a guard (9.5 per game!). He has good assist totals, and is good in transition, but in a half court game his value dramatically decreases. He is a poor outside shooter with bad mechanics. To stick in the league he has to improve, and improve his defense. He is solid now, but has to be better than good to stick in a rotation.
7. Brandon Paul/Illinois (37)- Paul is a scorer. Late in games, Paul had the ball in his hands. He is primarily a jump shooter, with good range on his 3 point shot. He needs to improve his shot selection and his defense, where his motor tends to struggle. When his offense struggles, his defense tends to struggle as well. If he tests well athletically, look for Paul to find a spot in someone's rotation.
8. Alex Abrines/Spain (42)- Abrines is only 19, but has received minutes for a Barcelona squad that advanced to the Eurocup final. His numbers are underwhelming, but the fact that he has played against men, compared to college/high school students, for the past year could lend well to a quick transition. He is a few years away, and not at the combine, but he could wind up being a great pick for a team in 3 years. Paging San Antonio?
9. Glen Rice Jr/Rio Grande Vipers (43)- Rice is a very good basketball player. He is a great shooter (no shock) and a fantastic athlete. He is a plus defender as well, and led his team to the D-League Championship. He has legitimate 6th man potential. What is holding him back from being higher on this list? He was kicked off of his college team at Georgia Tech for multiple violations, and does not have the best basketball IQ. He has all of the attributes, but could be a liability due to his decision making on and off the court.
10. Ricardo Ledo/Providence (44)- Ledo was a dynamic scorer in high school, and was a top recruit for Providence. His poor grades would not qualify him to compete at Providence however. He has an NBA frame, and is a good scorer, but his lack of gameplay over the past year will hurt him. Since he entered the draft anyways, he would have been better off playing in the D-League last year. Will his poor mental toughness hold him back? Look for him to shoot often at the combine, and if he shoots well, late first is not out of the question.
Next 3: Vander Blue (45), Tim Hardaway Jr. (46), BJ Young (49)
Small Forwards:
1. Otto Porter/Georgetown (3)- Porter is incredibly versatile. He can get his own shot, defend multiple positions, and has a great motor. He does not have any elite characteristics, but the same was said of other players who had great NBA seasons, like Brandon Roy. Porter could be an excellent #2 or 3 starter for a team. He should test well athletically. He could be a Ron Artest type player without all the drama.
2. Shabazz Muhammad/UCLA (7)- Muhammad is versatile as well. He is a solid spot-up shooter, terrific offensive rebounder, and scores well via post up situations. He is a good ball handler, but an atrocious passer. He is very selfish offensively, but with better teammates in the NBA that might improve. Muhammad is good in passing lanes, and has an NBA body (albeit a few inches shorter than most SFs), but off-court issues will haunt him. After a scandal where he was found to be a year older than advertised, character concerns persist. He could fall out of the lottery, but he has good talent and athleticism to perform at a starter level in the NBA. He needs a great combine.
3. Dario Saric/Croatia (11)- Saric is a 6'10" point forward who excels on the offensive end. He is a capable outside shooter (could get better), a good rebounder, and a great passer and ball handler. His court vision is tops in the draft. Defensively, he needs to add strength, but he is a good shot blocker and moves laterally well. He looks like a Hedo Turkoglu/Tayshaun Prince type player. Saric has off-court concerns regarding a DUI and late night partying. He also hasn't shown the best motor on the court. He is very talented, but needs to mature to be successful in the NBA.
4. Sergey Karasev/Russia (17)- Karasev is one of the top shooters in the draft, shooting near 50% in Russia last season. He reportedly had great practices in preparation for the Nike Hoop Summit, but struggled in the game, where he had too many turnovers and forced shots. He could be a Rudy Fernandez type player in the NBA. Like Rudy when he came to the NBA, he needs to improve his defense, but his offense would help lots of teams right away.
5. Giannis Antetokoumpo/Greece (20)- Antetokoumpo does it all- shoots the ball well, handles the ball well, and defends well. He has a great wingspan, and has potential to be a terrific NBA player. The biggest issue with Giannis is that he is VERY raw. He has been playing in the 2nd tier in Greece, which has been compared to good high school level basketball. His potential is off the charts, but he is still 3-4 years away from being able to contribute. A patient team could reap benefits well though. Remember how raw Ibaka was when he was picked? Antetokoumpo will not attend the combine.
6. Reggie Bullock/North Carolina (24)- Bullock is another jack-of-all-trades player, though to a lesser extent than Porter. Bullock is a terrific outside shooter, and decent defender. He shoots more than half of his shots from 3 point range, which makes him somewhat limited at the next level. When he goes inside, he shows some promise. Of concern is that Roy Williams supposedly advised Bullock not to enter. I think he winds up as a late first round pick, and could carve out a Jared Dudley like role.
7. Livio Jean-Charles/France (32)- Jean-Charles is a combo forward along the same lines as Dante Cunningham. His Euroleague numbers are underwhelming, but he exploded onto the scene at the Nike Hoop Summit, where his double-double led him to win the MVP for the night. He shows a confident mid-range game and a solid touch to score inside. As a complimentary player early in round 2, he could be a fantastic pick. He is only 19 as well. Jean-Charles will not be attending the combine.
8. Andre Roberson/Colorado (39)- Roberson might have been the best rebounder in college basketball last year, and could be the best rebounder in the draft. Can that alone get him drafted in rd. 1? He is an inconsistent shooter, and while he is athletic, he does not always use it to exploit his opponents. As a defender, he should have some success, though he will struggle guarding 4's if he cannot prove to be a 3 in the league. He needs to show he has a perimeter game at the combine.
9. DeShaun Thomas/Ohio State (47)- Thomas is a great scorer, and will most likely be used in a stretch 4 role at the next level. He has deep range on his 3 point shot, and is not afraid to shoot, but his shot selection is troublesome at times. His defense is average at best, as he is not a great athlete. His ability to score will get him drafted in the second round, but can he offer more?
10. Solomon Hill/Arizona (56)- Hill is a polished senior who may not have much potential left. He is, however, a good shooter and defender- 2 valuable assets to offer for 10mpg off of a team's bench. He looks like a role player at best, but players like him always seem to stick in the league longer than expected. He could be a shorter Jared Jeffries.
Next 3: Tony Snell (57), Ryan Kelly (61), DJ Stephens (69)
Power Forward:
1. Nerlens Noel/Kentucky (1)- Noel has the best chance to be an All-Star in this draft. He reminds me of Ben Wallace due to his shot blocking and rebounding abilities. He scores well in limited opportunities around the hoop, and is a great alley-oop target. His offense is raw, but he is the best all-around defender in the draft. His ACL tear likely won't prevent him from being a top 3 pick, and he is the favorite to go #1 overall.
2. Anthony Bennett/UNLV (10)- Bennett looks like a Paul Millsap type player at the next level. He is a good outside shooter- not to 3 point range yet- a terrific rebounder, and has an NBA body. He is undersized, but with a great wingspan. His motor is the biggest concern, as he does not always play hard. He is not very quick, and will have to guard bigger opponents for much of his playing time. If he can adapt his skills to playing against bigger, more athletic opponents, than he is rated too low at #10. Bennett had rotator cuff surgery and will not participate at the combine.
3. Kelly Olynyk/Gonzaga (19)- Olynk is a smooth athlete at 7'0" with good perimeter skills. In the post up, he likes to get all the way to the rim, and he hits jump shots from the high post. He could be an Andrea Bargnani type player- someone who can score, but does he help lead to wins? He is only an average defender, which is where he will find most of his issues towards getting consistent playing time.
4. Mason Plumlee/Duke (23)- Plumlee might have the best motor in the draft. He works very hard, and is a very good post defender and rebounder. Offensively, he is very raw for a senior. He has little ability to create offensively, but excels scoring in putback situations. He will find a role along the lines of Nick Collison and Tyler Hansbrough at the next level. Plumlee won't be a sexy pick in round 1, but fans of his new team will love how hard Plumlee fights.
5. Jackie Carmichael/Illinois State (30)- Carmichael is one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. Very few people have Carmichael rated in the top 30, but I think he could carve out a Taj Gibson-like role at the next level. He has an NBA body and plays physical, which lends well for him to get lots of rebounds. He scores in the mid range well, but does not have much of a post up game. His ceiling might not be too high, but he looks like a definite rotation player for 8-10 years.
6. Tony Mitchell/North Texas (36)- I expected significant development from Mitchell this year- and a potential lottery pick- but he actually regressed. His scoring, rebounding and block numbers all went down despite receiving more minutes. He has a questionable motor, and fouls often. He has to improve his jump shot to make him more appealing of a prospect. Mitchell might be the player who needs a great combine the most.
7. CJ Leslie/NC State (37)- Leslie has not improved as expected either. He is a great leaper and rebounder, but does not always play hard. He has less of a mid-range game than Mitchell. He scores well in post up situations, but also takes questionable shots that will be even more difficult at the next level. He has potential, and is worth a look early in round 2.
8. Grant Jerrett/Arizona (51)- Jerrett made a big mistake leaving Arizona after 1 year. A top 10 high school recruit, Jerrett failed to be more than an average college player last year. He has lots of potential, and can step out to midrange with good efficiency, but his body is not ready for the NBA. He rebounds well when in position, but does not have adequate strength yet. He looks like a project with good potential. He needs a great combine.
9. Richard Howell/NC State (53)- Howell is a terrific rebounder. He has virtually no offensive game outside of dump offs and offensive rebounds, but makes up for it with a constant motor and better than average defense. He is slightly undersized, but his near-elite level rebounding might be enough to get him picked in rd. 2.
10. Erik Murphy/Florida (60)- Murphy is a stretch 4 with good size. He looks like a Matt Bonner type player- which is no insult. Murphy shoots the three very well and rebounds well despite a lack of physicality. Given the trend of teams playing stretch 4s, I would be shocked if Murphy does not hear his name at some point on draft night.
Next 3: Jamelle Hagins (65), CJ Aiken (70), Trevor Mbakwe (72)
Centers:
1. Alex Len/Maryland (6)- Len has great size at 7'1" and is a surprisingly versatile center. He has shown the ability to shoot the ball well out to 18 feet, and has the most polished post-up game in the draft (though he didn't always get looks in the post). He needed more touches (had Gary Williams still been coaching, he wouldn't have been misused). As a defender, he needs to get stronger, but he shows good athleticism and rebounding skills. He could be a steal if he does not go in the top 5 picks. Len had ankle surgery and will not compete at the combine.
2. Cody Zeller/Indiana (9)- Zeller has faced more criticism than many of the other top prospects. He was hailed as a potential #1 pick in preseason, but being rated #9 seems about right. He has a less than ideal wingspan, but should test well in all of the other athletic categories. He is very skilled, and is a good ball handler and the best inside scorer in the draft. He does have weaknesses, but teams should be careful not to overlook him on draft night.
3. Rudy Gobert/France (12)- Gobert is raw, but blessed with an elite 7'9" wingspan (not a typo). He is a terrific shot blocker and rebounder, and runs the court very well, making him a weapon in transition. He has some post up game, but needs to get better. He will be a good asset in the pick and roll game, but needs to get stronger. With a scoring PF next to him, Gobert could be an excellent center to start alongside him. He is one of 2 Euros at the combine.
4. Gorgui Dieng/Louisville (15)- Dieng is ready to step in and help a team. He is a very good defender and rebounder, and helps out offensively by scoring in the midrange game and on putbacks. He is also the best passer out of the high post in the draft. Shot blocking is one of his best attributes, but he has to learn to defend without fouling. Adding some strength is needed.
5. Jeff Withey/Kansas (18)- Withey, like Dieng, could help a team right away. He is not as polished offensively, as he has no midrange game. He is a better shot blocker and rebounder than Dieng, but looks to have less upside. He shows maturity and a high basketball IQ on the court. Lots of teams need a center like Withey, and he could rise on draft day.
6. Steven Adams/Pittsburgh (25)- Adams is very raw. He is a very good rebounder and shot blocker, but fouls often and is a non-factor offensively. He has an NBA body, but is still years away. A big combine will help improve his draft stock, but he looks like a player who will need 4 years to make an impact. He will see lots of time in the D-League next year. Negatives aside, he has lots of potential, and could be a smarter JaVale McGee in 5 years.
7. Mouhammadou Jaiteh/France (31)- Jaiteh is a built 6'11 center, and is a good rebounder and shot blocker (sense a common theme?). Like Adams, he is very raw offensively. At the Nike Hoop Summit, he put up pedestrian numbers, but played good defense not seen by a box score. He looks like a draft and stash guy for the next 3 years. Jaiteh will not be participating at the draft combine.
8. Lucas Nogueira/Brazil (35)- Nogueira is tall and long, along the lines of Hasheem Thabeet, at 7'1". He is athletic and runs the court well, but is, like the last two players, very raw offensively. He has a lower basketball IQ than the previous two players on the list, and is better served continuing his development overseas for the next 2-3 years. "Bebe" will not be attending the draft combine.
9. Mike Muscala/Bucknell (50)- Muscala led a good Bucknell team to the NCAA tournament, though failed to have a profound impact on the game. He is a good shot-blocker, and, unlike the previous players, can contribute offensively from day 1. He has a good series of post-moves and a decent mid range shot. Defensively he struggles one on one, and should get stronger. His ceiling is not very high, but for a team looking for immediate help Muscala is an appealing option.
10. Zeke Marshall/Akron (63)- Marshall's best attribute is his shot blocking- he is in a class with Withey and Noel. His biggest flaws are his lack of toughness- a necessity in the NBA post- and a lack of offensive game. He shows some post up ability, but good NBA centers will defend it easily. If he develops a mid-range game he has potential to stick in the league. Without improvements he is just another Jarvis Varnardo- a player fighting from 10 day contract to 10 day contract.
Next 3: Norvel Pelle (66), Marko Todorovic (67), Aziz N'Diaye (77)
Which players will emerge out of the combine and send their stock to unprecedented levels? Time will tell. The three players I expect to have the biggest combine are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroeder and Steven Adams.
Follow me on twitter @ZRey12
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Marc Gasol
Is Marc Gasol the best center in the league? For the past 5 seasons, Dwight Howard had been the overwhelming choice as the top center in the league, but after a lukewarm season for Howard, and an exceptional season from Gasol, there should be a debate. Here were their stats this season:
Per 36 Min:
Gasol- 14.5pts/8reb/4.1ast/1.8bk/1st
Howard- 17.1pts/12.5reb/1.4ast/2.5bk/1.1st
Gasol is coming off of a defensive player of the year award, Howard won the award in the past (2009-2011)
Advanced Statistics:
Gasol- 11.6 win shares this season, net +11.2pts per 100 possessions.
Howard- 7.6 win shares, net +4.1pts per 100 possessions.
Who is best at each category?
Inside Scoring- Howard
Outside Scoring- Gasol
Passing/Ball Handle- Gasol
Inside Defense- Gasol
Outside Defense- Howard
As a free agent this summer, Howard has the potential to earn more than 20 million per year if he resigns with LA. Gasol will earn roughly 15 million per year for the next two. Both are elite centers- the top two in the league- but the point is that there is a compelling argument that Gasol is a better center than Howard, and the best in the league.
Who would you pick? Howard puts up a ridiculous stat line year after year, but the advanced metrics Gasol puts together in helping his team win are vastly impressive as well. At this single point in time, I'll take Gasol. But I will say this- LA has not been the right fit for Howard. Playing with a guard (Kobe) and post (Pau Gasol) who need many touches, Howard's effectiveness has been limited. He needs a change in scenery, and if he gets it, will challenge Gasol again next year for the title of top center in the league.
For now? Congrats to Marc Gasol.
Bonus- Remember when everyone thought LA fleeced Memphis in the trade for Pau. Hindsight is always 20/20...
Per 36 Min:
Gasol- 14.5pts/8reb/4.1ast/1.8bk/1st
Howard- 17.1pts/12.5reb/1.4ast/2.5bk/1.1st
Gasol is coming off of a defensive player of the year award, Howard won the award in the past (2009-2011)
Advanced Statistics:
Gasol- 11.6 win shares this season, net +11.2pts per 100 possessions.
Howard- 7.6 win shares, net +4.1pts per 100 possessions.
Who is best at each category?
Inside Scoring- Howard
Outside Scoring- Gasol
Passing/Ball Handle- Gasol
Inside Defense- Gasol
Outside Defense- Howard
As a free agent this summer, Howard has the potential to earn more than 20 million per year if he resigns with LA. Gasol will earn roughly 15 million per year for the next two. Both are elite centers- the top two in the league- but the point is that there is a compelling argument that Gasol is a better center than Howard, and the best in the league.
Who would you pick? Howard puts up a ridiculous stat line year after year, but the advanced metrics Gasol puts together in helping his team win are vastly impressive as well. At this single point in time, I'll take Gasol. But I will say this- LA has not been the right fit for Howard. Playing with a guard (Kobe) and post (Pau Gasol) who need many touches, Howard's effectiveness has been limited. He needs a change in scenery, and if he gets it, will challenge Gasol again next year for the title of top center in the league.
For now? Congrats to Marc Gasol.
Bonus- Remember when everyone thought LA fleeced Memphis in the trade for Pau. Hindsight is always 20/20...
Thursday, May 9, 2013
NBA Mock Draft
Updated version of my mock draft- with no lottery:
- Orlando- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
- Charlotte- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
- Cleveland- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
- Phoenix- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh
- New Orleans- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
- Sacramento- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
- Detroit- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA
- Washington- Alex Len C/Maryland
- Minnesota- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
- Portland- Dario Saric SF/Croatia
- Philadelphia- Cody Zeller C/Indiana
- Oklahoma City- Rudy Gobert C/France
- Dallas- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
- Utah- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany
- Milwaukee- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
- Boston- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
- Atlanta- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
- Atlanta- Giannis Adetokunbo SF/Greece
- Cleveland- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
- Chicago- Allan Crabbe SG/California
- Utah- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
- Brooklyn- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
- Indiana- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
- New York- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
- LA Clippers- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
- Minnesota- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
- Denver- Mouhamadou Jaiteh C/France
- San Antonio- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
- Oklahoma City- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina
- Phoenix- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
NBA Draft Stock Report
The season has come to a close, which allows time for closer analysis of players, and head to head comparisons. Here are players whose stock has risen or fallen:
Stock UP:
Dario Saric F/Croatia: Saric is rising fast up the board because of his versatility. He reminds a lot of Hedo Turkoglu because of his ability to see the open court and play as a point forward despite being 6'10". The biggest obstacle for Saric's success is his inconsistent three-point jump shot, but there are plenty of opportunities to improve that (Turkoglu only shot 32% in year 1). It wouldn't surprise me to see him taken in the top ten.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia: Caldwell-Pope is emerging as a favorite of analysts (myself included) because of his abilities to shoot the three and defend wing spots. 3 and D players are highly coveted, and Caldwell Pope combines his deep range and solid defense with the ability to get to the rim and rebound the ball as a guard. He looks like a cross of JR Smith and Will Barton. The big question is can he be efficient?
Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State: Carmichael could get drafted in the late first round and it would not surprise me. Just as Taj Gibson was projected a fringe rd. 1 prospect, Carmichael is as well. He has an NBA body that can pound in the paint right away, and is a good rebounder with jump shot range out to 20 feet. Every year there is a forward who goes between 25 and 35 who makes a big difference for a team off the bench (Carl Landry, Jimmy Butler, Dante Cunningham, Draymond Green). This year's player in that category- which has been quite productive- is Jackie Carmichael. A team like the Spurs or Thunder would find a gem to put out there for 15-20mpg.
Stock DOWN:
Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas: In hindsight, Mitchell probably should have stayed in school. Last year, he would have been a first round pick, and was hailed as a potential lottery pick for this draft. After a season (points and rebounds 2 less per game despite playing more minutes) in which he statistically regressed, he has scouts wondering if the best has already been seen from Mitchell. He can still be a first round pick, but more than likely he goes between 31-45 on draft day.
Stock UP:
Dario Saric F/Croatia: Saric is rising fast up the board because of his versatility. He reminds a lot of Hedo Turkoglu because of his ability to see the open court and play as a point forward despite being 6'10". The biggest obstacle for Saric's success is his inconsistent three-point jump shot, but there are plenty of opportunities to improve that (Turkoglu only shot 32% in year 1). It wouldn't surprise me to see him taken in the top ten.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia: Caldwell-Pope is emerging as a favorite of analysts (myself included) because of his abilities to shoot the three and defend wing spots. 3 and D players are highly coveted, and Caldwell Pope combines his deep range and solid defense with the ability to get to the rim and rebound the ball as a guard. He looks like a cross of JR Smith and Will Barton. The big question is can he be efficient?
Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State: Carmichael could get drafted in the late first round and it would not surprise me. Just as Taj Gibson was projected a fringe rd. 1 prospect, Carmichael is as well. He has an NBA body that can pound in the paint right away, and is a good rebounder with jump shot range out to 20 feet. Every year there is a forward who goes between 25 and 35 who makes a big difference for a team off the bench (Carl Landry, Jimmy Butler, Dante Cunningham, Draymond Green). This year's player in that category- which has been quite productive- is Jackie Carmichael. A team like the Spurs or Thunder would find a gem to put out there for 15-20mpg.
Stock DOWN:
Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas: In hindsight, Mitchell probably should have stayed in school. Last year, he would have been a first round pick, and was hailed as a potential lottery pick for this draft. After a season (points and rebounds 2 less per game despite playing more minutes) in which he statistically regressed, he has scouts wondering if the best has already been seen from Mitchell. He can still be a first round pick, but more than likely he goes between 31-45 on draft day.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Aldridge trade talk again...
It's that time of the year. The time when crazy trade rumors are floated (see: Smith, Stephen A.), talks discussed about who fits what fit, and talks about what players will do in 3 years. John Canzano, a sportswriter for the Oregonian, recently published an article stating that the Blazers should be testing the market for LaMarcus Aldridge. With 2 years left on his contract, at a VERY reasonable salary for a player of his caliber, and fresh off of a 21/9 season in his prime, it is true that LA's trade value is probably as high as it might ever get. And do not get me wrong here- I believe almost everyone can be traded for the right deal. Every year Bill Simmons publishes a column about the most valuable assets in the league. He rated Aldridge on the low end, but he still graded as a top 30 player. One could argue, and I plan to, that LaMarcus Aldridge is the best power forward in the NBA. He led all PF's in scoring, improved his rebounding to career best numbers, and has become a very good post defender. His length helps him with his jump shot, and, he should find a better flow in year 2 under Terry Stotts. Oh, and he was very efficient too. How do other PF's stack up?
Kevin Love- Could still be the best, but was hampered by an injury all year.
Blake Griffin- A solid 18/10 highflyer, but doesn't look like there is anything left to add in his game.
David Lee- Puts up 20/10, but is not as long or athletic as LA. Better rebounder though...
Chris Bosh- Third wheel in Miami, not the player he was 2-3 years ago.
Dirk and Garnett- Aging.
There are more promising ones, but for now LA is the top PF in the league- and a top 15 player at that too. Canzano stated that LA might not want to extend his deal so he could play in a larger market, and maybe for his hometown Mavericks. In my opinion, by the end of next season he will have enough reasons to extend. The core built around him in Lillard (future MVP candidate- for real), Batum (Potential All-Star) Matthews, and players with potential (Leonard, Claver) + pick 10. If next year ends up without a playoff berth he might leave. But I do not believe that will happen. Trading LA now will set the franchise back 3 years towards getting back to the playoffs. If the right offer came along, sure, trade LA- but it better be a damn great offer. His trade value is not going down anytime soon. The future is bright, including next season, and trading LA at this juncture makes no sense.
Kevin Love- Could still be the best, but was hampered by an injury all year.
Blake Griffin- A solid 18/10 highflyer, but doesn't look like there is anything left to add in his game.
David Lee- Puts up 20/10, but is not as long or athletic as LA. Better rebounder though...
Chris Bosh- Third wheel in Miami, not the player he was 2-3 years ago.
Dirk and Garnett- Aging.
There are more promising ones, but for now LA is the top PF in the league- and a top 15 player at that too. Canzano stated that LA might not want to extend his deal so he could play in a larger market, and maybe for his hometown Mavericks. In my opinion, by the end of next season he will have enough reasons to extend. The core built around him in Lillard (future MVP candidate- for real), Batum (Potential All-Star) Matthews, and players with potential (Leonard, Claver) + pick 10. If next year ends up without a playoff berth he might leave. But I do not believe that will happen. Trading LA now will set the franchise back 3 years towards getting back to the playoffs. If the right offer came along, sure, trade LA- but it better be a damn great offer. His trade value is not going down anytime soon. The future is bright, including next season, and trading LA at this juncture makes no sense.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
NBA Playoffs- Round 2 Preview
Western Conference
1 OKC vs. 5 MEM- Oklahoma comes in after struggling to play their best basketball. The injury to Russell Westbrook was catastrophic to their title chances, as Kevin Durant has not shown that he can be a player to lead a team to a title by himself. Don't get me wrong- he'll probably average 30 points a game in this series, and is a top 3 player in the NBA. But let's be brutally honest here: Who else is going to score the ball for the Thunder? Ibaka can give you 8-12 tops. Martin can get 20 if he shoots really well. Reggie Jackson has scored a lot on way too many shots. If you have to rely on Perkins, Sefolosha and Collison to score the team might be in trouble. I know he hasn't had much playing time this season, but Perry Jones III could be an intriguing option to throw out there for 8 minutes a game. He is long, a capable defender, and can score in multiple ways. I like his potential to score some needed points off of the bench. This series will come down to Memphis' defensive effectiveness. Tony Allen should see time on Durant- but he gives up a lot of size. Tayshaun Prince is the likely matchup. Marc Gasol is the best big man in the series, and should be the focal point of the Memphis offense. Randolph should see touches too. If Z-Bo and Marc can score 35 a game between the two of them, they will have a hard time not staying competitive. Conley should control the game well. Will Memphis be able to score from the wing and guard spots? I seriously cannot believe I am saying this, but the injury to Westbrook was too much to overcome. Prediction: Memphis in 6
2 SA vs. 6 GS- Golden State had a hell of a series despite missing their all-star in David Lee for most of the series (he played a minute in game 6). Stephen Curry is proving game after game why he is the most feared shooter in the NBA, and has also been good as a playmaker. Jarrett Jack has been good as a secondary ball handler- doing essentially everything they hoped Monta Ellis would do, without taking 25 shots a game. Andrew Bogut has finally started playing like the center GS thought they were getting in the trade. His 14 point 21 rebound performance in game 6 was fantastic, and will have the Spurs frontcourt on notice. To win the series, Golden State will have to shoot 40% from 3 at minimum, needing efficient performances from Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes especially. Thompson is the x-factor for Golden State. The Spurs coasted their way through round one- an easy sweep of the supposed-to-be-dominant-Lakers. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the way, and Ginobili looked like the threat he has been known to be (Manu has aged the worst). The Spurs have capable role players at every position, with Kawhi Leonard providing defense, rebounding, and a high motor at the 3, Danny Green hitting 3's and playing defense at the 2, and big men Tiago Splitter, Dajuan Blair and the Red Mamba Matt Bonner. Gary Neal has been great too. Denver was praised by many (myself included) for being the deepest team in the league. San Antonio quietly has a team that could be regarded as the deepest, which will make them a very tough out for Golden State. Prediction: San Antonio in 5
Eastern Conference:
1 MIA vs. 5 CHI- This series would be so much more compelling to watch with Derrick Rose. Supposedly cleared by doctors, he is having a mental block to coming back to the game, citing a lack of muscle memory. The fact that he is cleared by doctors tells me that he is not at risk to be injured again, and that only his performance will be slightly diminished due to his lack of mental readiness. What Rose needs to realize is that 70% of MVP Derrick Rose is better than none. If he truly is at risk to face another injury he should sit out, but he is hurting fans, teammates, coaches and the NBA by sitting out. Rose aside, this is still a good team. Joakim Noah dominated Brook Lopez in the first round, and Miami does not have a capable center to put on him offensively. He could average 17/10/6 easily. Defensively, he probably guards Bosh, which will make it tougher for him to score. Expect Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng (can he go?) to split time on James, and Hinrich (if healthy) to defend Wade. The Heat look like the team to beat. Fresh off his 4th MVP, LeBron James has played very well. Bosh and Wade will get theirs, and Allen will hurt Chicago on the wing. Too many weapons for this Bulls team to defend. The Bucks were less than a speed bump in their path to the Eastern Conference Finals, I expect the Bulls to be more difficult, but in the end the result will be the same. Prediction: Miami in 4 *Note- If Rose comes back, I will update this post
2 NY vs. 3 IND- The Knicks beat a good Boston team, but did not play their best basketball in the process. Their isolation style was exposed, and, when Melo and JR Smith do not make shots it is very tough for this team to score. When they do score, watch out. Smith is going to make a lot of money this summer, and can increase his future salary more with a bigger series. He is in a position to be the top FA SG this summer. The Knicks have players who can play defense- when they want to. Felton is capable, Anthony can defend, but where they excel is with Shumpert and Chandler. They will give fits to Paul George and Roy Hibbert. If I were New York, I would try to stretch the defense with Smith, Melo and Novak in the game for extended periods of time. Indiana is a very good defensive squad as well. Hibbert picked up his game as the season went along, George Hill is a good pickpocket, and David West is tough even with his diminished lateral quickness. Paul George has emerged as a star, and will make many more All-Star appearances. Indiana's team is deeper than New York, and can force the Knicks to take bad shot after bad shot. Pacers/Knicks is a fantastic playoff rivalry that has been documented in history as dominance by New York. What was Miller vs. Ewing is not George vs. Anthony. Can Indiana find glory? The pick: Indiana in 6
1 OKC vs. 5 MEM- Oklahoma comes in after struggling to play their best basketball. The injury to Russell Westbrook was catastrophic to their title chances, as Kevin Durant has not shown that he can be a player to lead a team to a title by himself. Don't get me wrong- he'll probably average 30 points a game in this series, and is a top 3 player in the NBA. But let's be brutally honest here: Who else is going to score the ball for the Thunder? Ibaka can give you 8-12 tops. Martin can get 20 if he shoots really well. Reggie Jackson has scored a lot on way too many shots. If you have to rely on Perkins, Sefolosha and Collison to score the team might be in trouble. I know he hasn't had much playing time this season, but Perry Jones III could be an intriguing option to throw out there for 8 minutes a game. He is long, a capable defender, and can score in multiple ways. I like his potential to score some needed points off of the bench. This series will come down to Memphis' defensive effectiveness. Tony Allen should see time on Durant- but he gives up a lot of size. Tayshaun Prince is the likely matchup. Marc Gasol is the best big man in the series, and should be the focal point of the Memphis offense. Randolph should see touches too. If Z-Bo and Marc can score 35 a game between the two of them, they will have a hard time not staying competitive. Conley should control the game well. Will Memphis be able to score from the wing and guard spots? I seriously cannot believe I am saying this, but the injury to Westbrook was too much to overcome. Prediction: Memphis in 6
2 SA vs. 6 GS- Golden State had a hell of a series despite missing their all-star in David Lee for most of the series (he played a minute in game 6). Stephen Curry is proving game after game why he is the most feared shooter in the NBA, and has also been good as a playmaker. Jarrett Jack has been good as a secondary ball handler- doing essentially everything they hoped Monta Ellis would do, without taking 25 shots a game. Andrew Bogut has finally started playing like the center GS thought they were getting in the trade. His 14 point 21 rebound performance in game 6 was fantastic, and will have the Spurs frontcourt on notice. To win the series, Golden State will have to shoot 40% from 3 at minimum, needing efficient performances from Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes especially. Thompson is the x-factor for Golden State. The Spurs coasted their way through round one- an easy sweep of the supposed-to-be-dominant-Lakers. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the way, and Ginobili looked like the threat he has been known to be (Manu has aged the worst). The Spurs have capable role players at every position, with Kawhi Leonard providing defense, rebounding, and a high motor at the 3, Danny Green hitting 3's and playing defense at the 2, and big men Tiago Splitter, Dajuan Blair and the Red Mamba Matt Bonner. Gary Neal has been great too. Denver was praised by many (myself included) for being the deepest team in the league. San Antonio quietly has a team that could be regarded as the deepest, which will make them a very tough out for Golden State. Prediction: San Antonio in 5
Eastern Conference:
1 MIA vs. 5 CHI- This series would be so much more compelling to watch with Derrick Rose. Supposedly cleared by doctors, he is having a mental block to coming back to the game, citing a lack of muscle memory. The fact that he is cleared by doctors tells me that he is not at risk to be injured again, and that only his performance will be slightly diminished due to his lack of mental readiness. What Rose needs to realize is that 70% of MVP Derrick Rose is better than none. If he truly is at risk to face another injury he should sit out, but he is hurting fans, teammates, coaches and the NBA by sitting out. Rose aside, this is still a good team. Joakim Noah dominated Brook Lopez in the first round, and Miami does not have a capable center to put on him offensively. He could average 17/10/6 easily. Defensively, he probably guards Bosh, which will make it tougher for him to score. Expect Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng (can he go?) to split time on James, and Hinrich (if healthy) to defend Wade. The Heat look like the team to beat. Fresh off his 4th MVP, LeBron James has played very well. Bosh and Wade will get theirs, and Allen will hurt Chicago on the wing. Too many weapons for this Bulls team to defend. The Bucks were less than a speed bump in their path to the Eastern Conference Finals, I expect the Bulls to be more difficult, but in the end the result will be the same. Prediction: Miami in 4 *Note- If Rose comes back, I will update this post
2 NY vs. 3 IND- The Knicks beat a good Boston team, but did not play their best basketball in the process. Their isolation style was exposed, and, when Melo and JR Smith do not make shots it is very tough for this team to score. When they do score, watch out. Smith is going to make a lot of money this summer, and can increase his future salary more with a bigger series. He is in a position to be the top FA SG this summer. The Knicks have players who can play defense- when they want to. Felton is capable, Anthony can defend, but where they excel is with Shumpert and Chandler. They will give fits to Paul George and Roy Hibbert. If I were New York, I would try to stretch the defense with Smith, Melo and Novak in the game for extended periods of time. Indiana is a very good defensive squad as well. Hibbert picked up his game as the season went along, George Hill is a good pickpocket, and David West is tough even with his diminished lateral quickness. Paul George has emerged as a star, and will make many more All-Star appearances. Indiana's team is deeper than New York, and can force the Knicks to take bad shot after bad shot. Pacers/Knicks is a fantastic playoff rivalry that has been documented in history as dominance by New York. What was Miller vs. Ewing is not George vs. Anthony. Can Indiana find glory? The pick: Indiana in 6
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