Thursday, November 29, 2012

Blazers Road Woes + New top 25 NCAA hoops

The Blazers fell to 0-3 on the current 7 road road trip after falling by 2 to the previously winless (and still Wall-less) Washington Wizards.  The team responded by holding a players only meeting, led by Wesley Matthews, where the team says it is at a crossroads.  If the team responds well, playoff contention will still be in the mix.  If not, it could be a long season, especially if we continue to drop games on this current road trip.  Boston is up next, and here are things that MUST be seen in order for the Blazers to pick up some wins again.

1.  LaMarcus Aldridge must play aggressively.  He was our greatest bright spot in the game against Detroit, but settled for jump shots against Washington.  He is our star, and has to play like it.  He is at his best when getting shots at the rim first, then supplementing his game with mid-range jump shots.  His lack of star productivity has even caused some analysts, such as Comcast's Dwight Jaynes, to ponder trading LA.  This is still a ludicrous option, as our starting unit still has lots of potential.  LMA is still our best post defender, and best offensive option at this point.  He has the tough role of guarding the opposing team's best post and having their best defender guard him.  He means far too much to this team to trade him, and, he is on a fantastic contract comparatively to similarly skilled players around the league.  Keep LA for sure, but he must be aggressive.

2.  Damian has to keep shooting.  He has been missing more and more shots lately, but the shots he is taking are mostly good shots.  Shooters have to shoot their way out of slumps, and I am not worried about Damian. 

3.  Someone from the bench needs to score.  When the starters score 78 out of 82 points, there is an obvious need for some bench scoring.  Can it be Barton?  Claver?  Hell, Babbitt may even be an option if we put capable defenders around him.  If we stay in contention, look for Portland to try and pry a bench scorer off of an underwhelming team.


College Basketball top 25:
  1.  Indiana
  2.  Duke
  3.  Syracuse
  4.  Ohio State
  5.  Louisville
  6.  Michigan
  7.  Arizona
  8.  Gonzaga
  9.  Michigan State
  10.  Kentucky
  11.  Kansas
  12.  Florida
  13.  Illinois
  14.  NC State
  15.  Oklahoma State
  16.  UNLV
  17.  Missouri
  18.  Cincinnati
  19.  Georgetown
  20.  Colorado
  21.  Creighton
  22.  Virginia Commonwealth
  23.  Alabama
  24.  San Diego State
  25.  UCLA
Next 5:  Butler, Xavier, Marquette, Wichita State, California

Monday, November 26, 2012

Updated Big Board + Road Trip Notes


Updated Rankings:
1.     Shabazz Muhammed SG/UCLA   
2.     Cody Zeller C/Indiana
3.      Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
4.      Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky                                    
5.      Alex Len C/Maryland                                                
6.      James McAdoo PF/North Carolina                                   
7.      Michael Carter Williams SG/Syracuse                                                
8.      CJ McCollum G/Lehigh                                            
9.      Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
10.  Tony Mitchell F/North Texas          
11.  Rudy Gobert C/France    
12.  Ben McLemore G-F/Kansas 
13.  Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky    
14.  Dario Saric F/Croatia      
15.  BJ Young PG/Arkansas   
16.  Steven Adams PF/Pittsburgh   
17.  Ricardo Ledo G/Providence  
18.  Andre Roberson SF/Colorado 
19.  Mike Moser F/UNLV
20.  CJ Leslie F/North Carolina State
21.  Kyle Anderson SF/UCLA
22.  Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma St
23.  Myck Kabongo PG/Texas   
24.  Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
25.  Keith Appling PG/MSU 
26.  Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
27. Adonis Thomas PF/Memphis
28. Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
29.  Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville 
30. Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
                     
 Road Trip Notes:
- LA did awesome attacking.  He has to go to the rim more often.
- Defense was poor again, especially in the paint.  Hickson and Leonard are doing a good job rebounding, but the post defense must get better.
- Barton was good off the bench.  Not going to overreact, but he put in one of the best performances from a bench guy of the season.  Play this guy 15 min a game. 
- Our guards have to shoot well to win.  When 2 of the 3 of Lillard, Wes and Nic don't make shots, the team is a longshot to win.  The team has to keep going to the hot hand.

My rotation would look like this (minutes in parenthesis): 
1 Lillard(36)/Price(12)
2 Matthews(36)/Barton(15)/Smith/Pavlovic/E-Will
3 Batum(36)/Claver(6)/Babbitt(3)
4 Aldridge(36)/Jeffries(12)/Freeland
5 Hickson(32)/Leonard(16)

Go Blazers!!

Follow @ZRey12
 

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Blazers (5-5) vs. Phoenix

Blazers look to win their 4th in a row tonight!  Against Phoenix tonight, I anticipate the Blazers scoring 105+, as the Suns have a pitiful defense.  The starters have played well as a unit, but may be without Hickson tonight, giving Meyers Leonard his first career start.
Keys to the game:

1.  Hold Beasley to 12 pts. 6 reb.- If he does not get going, there are not many other scorers who can play too well.
2.  Lillard scores 20.
3.  Less than 12 TOs/

Go Blazers!

Prediction:  Portland 107, Phoenix 96

Monday, November 19, 2012

Big Board post #1

The first NBA Draft Post!!!

Ten games into the regular season Portland is 5-5, doing better than many expected them to do thus far.  We are currently in a 3 way tie for 7th in the conference, which, if this pace continues, means we give up our draft pick in rd. 1 to Charlotte (Gerald Wallace trade).  While 1st round picks are immensely helpful for a rebuilding team, I would much rather have a first round pick in 2014, which is lining up to be a stronger draft class.  For this draft:  Who are my top players available? *Note expect to see lots of changes throughout the year, as it is only November.

BIG BOARD 1.0:

1.     Shabazz Muhammed SG/UCLA   
2.     Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
3.      Cody Zeller C/Indiana
4.      Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky                                    
5.      Alex Len C/Maryland                                                
6.      James McAdoo PF/North Carolina                                   
7.      CJ McCollum G/Lehigh                                                
8.      Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor                                            
9.      Michael Carter Williams SG/Syracuse
10.  Tony Mitchell F/North Texas          
11.  Rudy Gobert C/France    
12.  Dario Saric F/Croatia
13.  BJ Young PG/Arkansas      
14.  Ben McLemore G-F/Kansas         
15.  Steven Adams PF/Pittsburgh   
16.  Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky 
17.  Ricardo Ledo G/Providence  
18.  Andre Roberson SF/Colorado 
19.  Mike Moser F/UNLV
20. CJ Leslie F/North Carolina State
21. Kyle Anderson SF/UCLA
22.  Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville 
23. Myck Kabongo PG/Texas   
24.  Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
25.  Keith Appling PG/MSU 
26.  DeShaun Thomas PF/Ohio State
27. Adonis Thomas PF/Memphis
28. Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
29. Jeff Withey C/Kansas 
30. Peyton Siva PG/Louisville
 Next 5: Aziz N'Diaye, Phil Pressey, Wayne Blackshear, Mason Plumlee, Victor Oladipo
      If we picked in the late lottery I would lean towards taking CJ McCollum or Michael Carter Williams, as they could be 6th man candidates we desperately need to start with, and both have potential to be starters in the league.  In rd. 2, we have 2 picks, and Siva could be a solid pick if still left (I am higher on him than most).

Go Blazers!!

Sunday, November 18, 2012

A football post? Stop the presses!!!

A football post in a basketball blog?  I know, I know, probably not what you came here to read.  However this blogger is also interested in the NFL, and college football is nearing the end of its regular season.  You all know what that means, right?  Mock draft 1.0 it is!

  1.  KC- Matt Barkley QB/USC
  2.  JAX- Geno Smith QB/WVU
  3.  CLE- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia
  4.  CAR- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah
  5.  OAK- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M
  6.  BUF- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame
  7.  PHI- Luke Joekel OT/Texas A&M
  8.  STL- Barkevious Mingo DE/LSU
  9.  NYJ- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU
  10.  STL*- Chase Warmack OG/Alabama
  11.  TEN- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama
  12.  CIN- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
  13.  SD- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
  14.  MIA- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee
  15.  NO- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
  16.  DAL- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia
  17.  ARZ- Taylor Lewan OT/Michigan
  18.  DET- Dri Archer RB/Kent State
  19.  TB- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina
  20.  MIN- Keenan Allen WR/California
  21.  SEA- Tavon Austin WR/WVU
  22.  NYG- CJ Mosley ILB/Alabama
  23.  PIT- Dion Jordan DE/Oregon
  24.  IND- Corey Lemonieur DE/Auburn
  25.  DEN- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
  26.  NE- Jordan Poyer CB/Oregon State
  27.  GB- Jonathan Jenkins DT/Georgia
  28.  SF- Chase Thomas OLB/Stanford
  29.  BAL- Eric Reid S/LSU
  30.  CHI- Robert Woods WR/USC
  31.  HOU- Matt Elam S/Florida
  32. ATL- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State
*STL has the pick from WAS

Comments, questions or concerns?  Accolades maybe?  Let me know in the comments!

2009 NBA Draft

Last week, I "re-drafted" the 2008 draft based off of current knowledge.  What if the 2009 draft were redone as well?  *Note all trades from 2009 draft day will happen again, and we are basing teams off of the actual 2008 draft, not the re-drafted version.

  1.  Clippers- Blake Griffin (1).  Clippers don't regret the pick, and draft their franchise player again.
  2.  Grizzlies- James Harden (3).  OJ Mayo did not work out in Memphis (as we know now), so MEM takes Harden to be their 2 guard and playmaker.
  3.  Thunder- Stephen Curry (7).  With Harden off the board, OKC gets another scary player to pair with Durant and Westbrook in Curry.  Curry would be an amazing fit for OKC.
  4.  Kings- Ricky Rubio (5).  The rookie of the year goes LOWER than he actually did?  Yep.  After a solid rookie campaign, Evans has failed to become a go to player, and the Kings instead fill their much needed PG spot.
  5.  Wolves- Tyreke Evans (4).  Ok, he hasn't developed into THE guy to lead a team.  But he is still a very capable NBA player with a knack for scoring, and Minnesota would not regret the pick because Kevin Love would be their go to guy.
  6.  Wolves- Ty Lawson (18).  Bet they wish they did not sell his rights on draft day in '09.  Lawson has arguably been the most productive pt. guard in the draft class, and has a healthy ankle (see pick 3)
  7.  Warriors- Jrue Holiday (17).  Maybe he shouldn't have slipped on draft day.  Holiday is now being paid like a franchise cornerstone, and has a lot of potential left to explore.  He could still wind up being the best point guard in this draft.
  8.  Knicks- Brandon Jennings (10).  Jennings would be a major improvement at point over anyone the Knicks have had in the last 4 years, except a month worth of Jeremy Lin.  He can score and distribute, and might not clash too much with Carmelo Anthony.
  9.  Raptors- DeMar Derozan (9).  Same pick as last time.  Maybe they'll get a discount in 4 years...
  10.  Bucks- Darren Collison (21).  After missing out on Jennings, they draft another speedy PG who can score in bursts.
  11.  Nets- Taj Gibson (26).  Will blossom more next year when Boozer is gone.  Can rebound and score inside, and is very athletic.
  12.  Bobcats- Marcus Thornton (43).  The Bobcats took Henderson to score, but Thornton has blossomed into a very good wing scorer with a solid jump shot.
  13.  Pacers- DeJuan Blair (37).  Can do everything they expected Hansbrough to do, except more efficiently and better on the glass.  Injuries are still a concern with Blair, but the talent is there.
  14.  Suns- Jonas Jerebko (39).  They were trying to replace Marion.  Jerebko is a versatile forward, and is still young.  While he cannot be a go to guy, he is among the best glue guys in the league.
  15.  Pistons- Rodrigue Beaubois (25).  Dallas hasn't been the right fit.  In a competition with Stuckey, Beaubois might develop into the scorer many people thought, and still think (me) he can be.
  16.  Bulls- Jeff Teague (19).  Teague is a good shooter and average distributor.  He has not become a quality starting point guard, but in a scoring role off the bench, behind Rose, Teague could be a 6th man of the year candidate.
  17.  76ers- Eric Maynor (20).  Maynor has been a solid backup 1 behind Westbrook, and could still develop into a decent starter.
  18.  Nuggets- Danny Green (46). Would be a perfect fit in Denver's offense.  Green can shoot and defend, and is a great complimentary player.
  19.  Hawks-  Chase Budinger (44).  He was once a projected lottery pick.  He does not quite make it back, but Budinger has been a solid bench scorer in the league thus far, and is very athletic.  White men can jump (I reference the dunk contest to say this:  Get stars to do it or take a break from it!)
  20.  Jazz- BJ Mullens (24).  The Jazz have compiled impressive frontcourt depth, and Mullens would add to that mix.  He has developed into another Channing Frye, except Mullens knows where the paint is.
  21.  Hornets- Gerald Henderson (12).  He has not been a great pick, but he has been ok for Charlotte.  If he were given a role like Marcus Thornton his rookie year, he may have succeeded at a higher level.
  22.  Blazers-  Jodie Meeks (41).  Honestly, with knowledge of the future, I would want the Blazers to happily trade out of this spot  Meeks has been OK, and shoots the ball well.  He would give Portland a viable role player and bench option.
  23.  Kings- Jonny Flynn (6).Its a risky pick knowing the future, but maybe Flynn would pan out not being in Minnesota.  Odds: 1/1000
  24.  Thunder- Hasheem Thabeet (2).  Maybe he was another player who needed time.  OKC could have given it too him.  Its a risky pick, but he is a role player for OKC anyways right?
  25.  Mavs- Jordan Hill (8).  Another flop, though has stuck around like a role player.  He can crash the glass, but is inefficient.  Worth a risk in a new system.
  26.  Bulls- Toney Douglas (29).  Giving CHI the hindsight that Rose will tear his ACL, they will draft a player who can score the ball some during his absence.  Most likely wouldn't lead to increase in wins though.
  27.  Grizzlies- Dante Cunningham (33).  A solid role player, Cunningham could be a long term role player for a team.  He is a hustler.
  28.  Wolves- Patrick Mills (55).  A solid scorer for Australia, he has not translated much in the NBA.  At the very least he can shoot the ball.
  29.  Knicks- Lester Hudson (58).  Another scorer.  He is very inefficient, and not terribly athletic, but the Knicks could put him in a bench unit next to other scorers.  It'd be interesting.
  30.  Cavs-  Sergio Llull (34).  Has never played in the NBA, but has looked good in Spain, and decent during the Olympics.  Will he ever come over?  Doubtful, but there are very few other candidates for this spot.

After analysis and redrafting of the 2008 and 2009 drafts, we can concur that the 2008 draft has been stronger, though they have had an extra year of development.  While some players could still become standouts, the 2008 draft has produced well.  If I were to rub my magic ball, I would argue that the 2012 and 2013 drafts will be very similar to the 2008 and 2009 versions.  The 2012 draft will produce many quality players, as will 2013, all-stars will be more plentiful in the 2012 draft.  The difference between the two will be the number or role players produces by the 2012 draft.  Expect to hear many more names from the past draft rather than this next upcoming one.

Oh and Portland plays Chicago tonight!  Keys to the game:
1 Deng shoots under 40%.  Deng has been a Blazer killer in his career.  If Batum can limit his quality shot attempts, Deng will have a poor outing.
2 Win the rebounding battle.  Noah, Boozer and Gibson can rebound effectively.  Time to get physical up front.
3  Lillard scores 25.  Chicago's guards are weak with Rose out.  Time to take advantage.


GO BLAZERS!

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Huge Win!

After a disappointing first half, the Blazers had a vicious comeback to beat Houston in overtime.  Nicolas Batum took over in the third quarter, draining 3 after 3.  Lillard was the man in the 4th, hitting clutch shot after clutch shot in the mold of Brandon Roy.  He has the composure of a vet, not a rookie.  In overtime, they went back to LaMarcus, where he hit a pair of jumpshots to put the game out of reach.  Stringent defense on Harden late in the game helped the comeback, which was mainly the doing of Wesley Matthews.  Meyers Leonard looked good off the bench too.

After an extraordinary win to push Portland to 4-5, hopefully we have the spark to keep winning.  As has been the story for much of the season, the starting unit has been great, and the bench dismal, save for Meyers Leonard last night.  The roles were mixed up slighty, with Victor Claver being the first one off the bench.  While Claver did not make a huge impact, his high basketball IQ helped him fit in with the group on the court, which was mainly starters. 

Phoenix comes up next, hopefully there can be some bench help to go with the starter's solid play.  Relating to the bench, PLEASE play Will Barton.  He has the makings of a good bench scorer for us, something Price, Smith and Pavlovic cannot give.

Rip City!

Monday, November 12, 2012

Blazers vs. Hawks

Blazers have struggled over the last few games.  The Hawks are not great, so this is a perfect opportunity to right the ship and win a game.  I'll keep it short and sweet:

Keys to the game:
1.  Aldridge gets ten shots at the rim.  As stated for the last game, he is taking way too many perimeter shots, and needs to find a rhythm down low.
2.  Limit the Hawks to 6 threes.  They have shooters everywhere in Korver, Morrow, Williams and Jenkins.  We have to close out on shooters, as only Lou Williams will try to score off the dribble as well.
3.  Force turnovers.  The edge in athleticism goes to Portland in this match, as ATL only has Josh Smith in this regard.  If ATL commits 15 or more TO's, Portland should have no problem winning.

Prediction: Blazers 100 Hawks 94

Go Blazers!

@ZRey12

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Twitter

Follow me on twitter:  @ZRey12

Check it out!

Go Blazers!

NBA Draft 2008

I have not posted about the NBA Draft thus far, most likely because it is eons away, as the season just started.  That said, I prepare hundreds of hours for each draft, and have found that my rankings have been very accurate in projecting players.  It takes a few years to analyze a draft class to see the full benefits, and even then there might be some uncertainty as to who the best overall player was.  Throughout the next week I will be conducting "what ifs," about what would happen if the drafts were redone back in time.  Would John Wall or Blake Griffin still go #1?  Would Wes Matthews or Jeremy Lin go undrafted?  Time will tell...

So starting now, how how would the 2008 draft go if it were redone?
    *note:  This assumes all trades are made as well (For example Portland still trades with Indiana)

  1.  Chicago Derrick Rose (1)- Of course they still pick the MVP.
  2.  Miami Kevin Love (5)- They would find a complement to go with Wade, though this would probably make the Big 3 a fantasy again
  3.  Memphis Russell Westbrook(4)- The OJ Mayo trade was regrettable.  This time they get the guard who can help turn around the franchise
  4.  OKC (Seattle) Serge Ibaka(24)- They still wind up with Ibaka, but have to take him a lot earlier.
  5.  Minnesota Roy Hibbert(17)- We know Kahn wants to take a point guard, but Hibbert would be the big Minny needed.
  6.  New York Eric Gordon (7)- The shooter NY would want now.
  7.  LA Clippers Brook Lopez (10)- Would be a compliment to their future #1 pick
  8.  Milwaukee Nic Batum (25)- The 3 man Milwaukee has needed since they drafted Joe Alexander (wait that was this draft?)
  9.  Charlotte OJ Mayo (3)- Charlotte is worse now than they were then.  Adding Mayo would have been an upgrade over Augustin.
  10.  Brooklyn (NJ) JaVale McGee (18)- Still has his shortcomings, but is the best big on the board.
  11.  Portland Goran Dragic (45)- Thought they had their PG with Bayless.  The guy who went 36 spots later would have worked better.
  12.  Sacramento Danilo Gallinari (6)- Another franchise on the rebound, adding a scorer in Gallinari could have helped speed the rebuilding process.
  13.  Indiana Omer Asik (36)- Because Hibbert was already picked, they need a big man to play D and score inside.  Asik is still developing on offense, but is great on defense.
  14.  Golden State Michael Beasley (2) Still a lottery pick.  He has not been the star imagined, but he can score, and is a good rebounder when he wants to be.
  15.  Phoenix Ryan Anderson (21) Would have given Nash a pick and pop partner, and another shooter to kick to.  Can rebound too.
  16.  Philadelphia George Hill (26) And we thought the Spurs reached...  Hill has become a solid PG in the scoring mold. 
  17.  Indiana Mario Chalmers (34) Fits in Indiana like Hill does.  A shooter with a role that does not ask him to do too much.  That said, they'd prefer Hill.
  18.  Washington DeAndre Jordan (35) An athletic big, and smarter than McGee.  Too bad he is still super raw offensively.
  19.  Cleveland Nikola Pekovic (31) This still may be too low.  While unathletic, Pekovic has a nice touch, and is very strong.  Still developing in the NBA.
  20.  Charlotte Robin Lopez (15)- OJ Mayo and Robin Lopez would be much stronger than DJ Augustin and Alexis Ajinca.  Agreed?
  21.  Brooklyn (NJ) Courtney Lee (22)- Has developed into a defensive minded shooter.  Not a great player, but spots on every team for him.
  22.  Orlando Jerryd Bayless (11)- Was not the PG for Portland, but is a good scorer off the bench.  Would be good behind Nelson.
  23.  Utah JJ Hickson (19)- Athletic and still improving, Hickson would be a nice find for the Jazz here.
  24.  OKC (Seattle) DJ Augustin (9) The redraft screws over teams who drafted well in the first place.  While a significant downgrade, Augustin is a solid backup PG.
  25.  Portland Kosta Koufus (23) The starter in Denver, he will never be an amazing center, but he gets the job done.  Think Przybilla.
  26.  San Antonio Anthony Randolph (14) maybe a reach still, but San Antonio could have done wonders with his athleticism.
  27.  Memphis Darrell Arthur (27) So good the first time, they made it again.
  28.  Houston Brandon Rush (13) A solid shooter, and he is not a combo forward.  Seems like a nice fit.
  29.  OKC (Seattle) Jason Thompson (12) A good post defender, has not developed to be much more.
  30.  Boston Gary Forbes (und.) Undrafted the first time, this nice role player gets the first round nod the second time around.
Thoughts?

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Blazers (2-3) vs. Spurs (5-1)

In about an hour, the Blazers tip off against San Antonio, which has looked very good to start the season.  The Blazers up tempo style will be tested against the methodical San Antonio offense.  Do the Blazers have a chance?  Of course!  In a day where #1 Alabama went down, any other upsets would be less monumental, especially when you consider the teams Portland has beaten (LAL and HOU)

Keys to the Game:
1. Lillard 20pts 10ast.  If he is very involved, our offense will be at its best.
2. Aldridge takes 10 shots at the rim.  He has been settling for his jump shot, but is also not getting the opportunities at the block that he has become accustomed too.  If he can get easy buckets down low, his jump shots may be more open as well.
3.  20+ fastbreak points.  This may seem like a lot, but San Antonio cannot keep up with a run and gun game style, outside of maybe Kawhi Leonard.  Look for Portland to hit Lillard fast and often for transition buckets.

Prediction?
Portland 102 San Antonio 89

Go Blazers!

Thursday, November 8, 2012

College Basketball Preview

There has been a lot of hoopla about opening polls in for NCAA basketball thus far.  Various influential players, and future NBA prospects, Shabazz Muhammad and Myck Kabongo are not eligible yet.  This has a big influence on the polls, though I think both players will be eligible later this month.  Here are my top 25 going into the college season:

  1. Louisville- returns essentially everyone, and Siva will be one of the best point guards in the country.
  2. Kentucky- Replenished after having 6 players drafted.  Nerlens Noel should protect the rim, and Alex Poythress is a fantastic athlete.  Do not expect to see Kentucky struggle.
  3. Indiana- Ranked #1 by the AP for preseason.  I think Indiana will be very good, led by Cody Zeller, but the defense must improve if they are to be #1.
  4. Syracuse- While they lost Dion Waiters, Michael Carter Williams (MCW? hmm...  nickname needs work) can fill that role well and could be a lottery pick this next June.  Solid up front, Syracuse should be good once again.
  5. UCLA- If Muhammad is eligible, UCLA will be very good.  He could be the best scorer in college basketball, and UCLA has pieces around him to make a charge at a top tournament seed.
  6. Kansas- Elijah Johnson is ready for a breakout year.  Withey will protect the paint, and Kansas will win the Big 12 again this year.
  7. North Carolina State- NC state is the best team in the ACC?  Sounds crazy, but CJ Leslie is back, and Lorenzo Brown is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Lots of depth on this team.
  8. Ohio State- DeShaun Thomas is back, and Aaron Craft is solid at the point.  If Thomas can score efficiently, Ohio State will contend for the Big 10 title with Indiana.
  9. Arizona- Lots of talented freshmen lead the way for Arizona, and Solomon Hill is back as well.  Mark Lyons transferred from Xavier.  There is a lot of talent on this team.
  10. UNLV- Mike Moser gets it done in a variety of ways, and should average a double-double again with more scoring responsibilities.  They restocked their frontcourt, and have lots of potential to be the best mid-major this year.
  11. Michigan State- Still the best team in Michigan.  Keith Appling is back to run the point, and the front court, while losing Draymond Green, has a year more experience.  Tom Izzo's defense will stifle the Big 10 once again.
  12. Missouri- Phil Pressey can score and defend well.  Missouri will be solid in their high tempo offense once again.  Hopefully the don't play Norfolk State this year.
  13. Michigan- 4 Big 10 teams in the top 12?  Yes.  Michigan returns their starting backcourt, who are among the best in the country when they don't force shots.  Michigan will be good.
  14. Duke- Seth Curry needs to score from the outside, and Mason Plumlee needs to develop into a post scorer.  He has not improved much since his freshman year offensively, and this is the season he needs to do it.
  15. Florida- Is this finally the year Patric Young learns how to play?  Could be, as he has lots of opportunities on the glass with Kenny Boynton taking contested 3's.  If Florida can be offensively efficient, they will be good.
  16. North Carolina- Like Kentucky, lost a lot of talent.  However, did not replace lost talent as well.  PJ Hairston is a great shooter, and James McAdoo is an awesome post scorer for this team.
  17. Gonzaga- Lots to like about this team.  Pangos and Bell are back (As only sophomores!) in the backcourt, and Elias Harris is still there.  This team will win the WCC, and could upset a few teams in the tournament.
  18. San Diego State- Jamaal Franklin is back, and he should be the top scorer in the MWC.  They have a serious chance to compete with UNLV for the top pick in the draft.
  19. Florida State- Michael Snaer is back to hit more buzzer beaters.  Florida State returns most of the team, and should be a contender in the ACC.
  20. Memphis- Young and athletic, Memphis will be a matchup problem for many teams.  Adonis Thomas should be the top scorer this year, possibly leading the conference.
  21. Creighton- Is it just me, or does Doug McDermott remind anyone else of Luke Babbitt?  Regardless of pro potential, Creighton will be one of the best mid majors in the country, thanks to McDermott's scoring ability.
  22. Virginia Commonwealth- Another mid-major...  but never bet against Shaka Smart.  New to the A-10, the competition will be better, and VCU has the firepower to win lots of games.
  23. Cincinnati- Might be better than last year.  Space filler Yancy Gates is gone, and Cincy can move in transition more than last year.  Will be solid in the Big East.
  24. Stanford- Chasson Randle is the real deal.  After winning the NIT last year, Stanford returns a lot of its core (Josh Owens is gone), and should be a good team in the Pac 12.
  25. Baylor- Pierre Jackson is back, and Heslip is still available to rain 3's.  Much of their athletic frontcourt is gone, so there will be lots of pressure to score on these guards.

Keep an eye on:  Murray State, Washington, Iowa State, Delaware, Oregon State

Player of the year:  Peyton Siva/Louisville
Title prediction: Louisville over Kentucky

All-Americans: 1st team:
G- Peyton Siva/Louisville
G- Isaiah Canaan/Murray State
F- Shabazz Muhammad (if eligible)
F- James McAdoo/UNC
C- Cody Zeller/Indiana

2nd team:
G- CJ McCollum/Lehigh
G- Elijah Johnson/Kansas
F- Alex Poythress/Kentucky
F- Mike Moser/UNLV
C- Jeff Withey/Kansas

watch out for: Lorenzo Brown/NC State, Tony Mitchell/North Texas, Nerlens Noel/Kentucky

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Home game #2

Tomorrow night, Rip City is back in action against the Clippers.  The previous game against Dallas did not go as well (2nd half in particular).  The Clippers will be another test for our posts, as Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are tenacious rebounders and are among the most physical players in the league.  (I know, I know, insert flopping joke here...)  The frontcourt for LAC must be boxed out, and Portland can control the glass against this team.  After hot shooting from 3 point range, our guards and wings have been taking less-than-ideal shots, fadeaway threes from Batum being among the least productive shots.  Barton should be our 6th man as well, as he can limit Jamal Crawford when he enters.

Keys to win:
1.  Shoot 48%.  In Terry Stotts offense, high percentage shooting in a necessity.
2.  Limit Paul to 6 assists.  When he is most involved, the Clippers are at their most dangerous.  I would start with Matthews defending him.
3.  LA scores 25.  Griffin is not a great defender, and Jordan will buy pump fakes.  LA should get 25 points.

Go Blazers!

Saturday, November 3, 2012

So far (1-1)

So far the Blazers took down a team who was supposedly mighty and stacked with talent, and took a loss to a team that went to the finals last year.  Our 1-1 record will be put on the line again tonight at Houston.  For Houston, James Harden has been scoring at will, and Lin has been rather efficient at the point.  Houston will be a tough out, and we will need good defensive performances from Matthews and Batum tonight.

So far what I have seen from our team:
Starters:

LaMarcus Aldridge:  Is the player we need him to be, though he struggled shooting the ball, going only 8 for 22 last night.  I am not terribly worried about this, as it has only been 2 games.  His shot should come soon.  He also upped his RPG last night to 9 per game.  So far? 8/10

Damian Lillard:  Has looked the part of a starting PG.  He can score the ball and dish for assists.  His decision making has been tested a few times, but he has all the attributes to be a future All-Star in the league if he continues to improve.  So far?  8/10

Wesley Matthews:  Shot the ball very well until the last half of the OKC game.  We are at our best when he is making shots, and not forcing them because he is not making any.  His defense was good against Durant as well.  So far?  7/10

Nicolas Batum:  His first half against the Lakers looked really promising, and he finished the game with 26 points and a handful of rebounds.  Against OKC, he shot 1 for 11, and was not a factor on the glass.  He forced fade away threes, when in reality he should have waited for a set shot.  His defense has looked good, but not as good at Matthews.  So far? 6/10

JJ Hickson:  The offense looks a lot better with JJ in the game.  He has had double doubles in both games, and has shown athleticism to beat other posts.  His made range game has looked decent as well.  When he has crashed the boards, with LA too, the team has looked its best.  So far?  7/10

Bench:

Sasha Pavlovic:  Is he really getting the most minutes off of our bench?  Uh oh...  except for a 2 minute span against LA where he hit a few shots, Pavlovic has been a liability on both ends of the court.  He looks lost on offense, and the offense has come to a halt a few times when he has had the ball.  It has only been two games, but I am ready for the Pavlovic experiment to end.  So far?  2/10

Meyers Leonard:  Looks like a rookie big man.  He has had moments where he has looked great, but the physicality of the game is something he is still adjusting to.  Offensively, I would like to see him pop out to 15 feet more for a jump shot, as many posts who defend hm will give that shot up.  Growing pains are evident, but the promise is there.  So far? 5/10

Nolan Smith:  Have to admit I'm glad we declined the option here.  He has looked uncomfortable playing the point, and really is just an undersized 2.  That said, utilized on the wing he would be more effective than Pavlovic has been.  When Price comes back I want Stotts to experiment with that backcourt some. So far?  3/10

Jared Jeffries:  Looks like a good 5th big man.  He does the dirty work well, and is not afraid to mix it up a little bit.  He knows his role, and has looked good in his 2 appearances.  So far?  6/10

Joel Freeland:  For some reason, he did not play against LA.  In his few minutes against OKC he had a few rebounds, but was not a factor on the offensive end.  Freeland would be a great partner for a pick and pop, a play we have not seen with him yet.  So far? 4/10

Luke Babbitt:  I love Luke and I hate Luke at the same time.  His ability to come in and make 3's is very useful, though he has not looked great on the defensive end.  We should use him as a left-handed version of Steve Novak, who has been an important part of the offense in NY.  He should play more minutes as a stretch 4.  So far?  5/10

Will Barton:  Has only played 1 minute.  I still think he has the best chance to be our scorer off of the bench this year, but the opportunity has not come because of Pavlovic playing ahead of him on the depth chart.  I like Barton as a player, but he has not been showcased enough yet. So far?  Inc.

Victor Claver:  How has Claver not played yet?  He looks like a matchup nightmare against bench units, as he is athletic and can shoot the ball.  Unless he has an injury that we have not heard about, Claver should be getting role player minutes at the wing or stretch 4.  I think Claver, like Barton, could be bright spots on a very weak bench unit.  So far? Inc.


Game @5 tonight, GO BLAZERS!!!!!

Friday, November 2, 2012

NBA Developmental League

Friday was the NBA Developmental League Draft.  The Blazers' affiliate the Idaho Stampede made many choices in filling their roster, such as former Richmond standout and Orlando Magic forward Justin Harper.  Harper had lots of promise as a stretch 4, but has not developed very fast on a team who has a plethora of stretch 4's already, such as Andrew Nicholson and Al Harrington this year, and Ryan Anderson last year.  He is a good player, and could have a great season in the D-League running Portland's offense and defensive schemes.  However, there is no guarantee we can keep him.  Due to current D-League rules, and the lack of an organized minor league system, any development we could see from Harper may go to waste.  In Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, there are minor league systems to develop players that may one day fit into the highest tier of the professional team.  While many NBA teams are buying into the developmental league idea (Portland being one of them), but it will take every team in the league to insure the success of the D-League as a minor league system. 

ESPN produced a series of five articles this fall about issues regarding the expansion of the developmental league for a minor league system.  Included topics involved the NBA Draft, finances, and player development to name 3 of the 5.  I strongly recommend that these articles be read by even casual fans (Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8465320/nba-projecting-players-produced-full-nba-minor-leagues).  Why is this?  The NBA D-League would allow NBA teams to further develop prospects who are not ready for minutes at the pro level, without using a coveted roster spot at the highest level.  One of the main concerns teams have for expansion is the desire to protect all of the players on the D-League team, rather than just players with NBA contracts, as is the current system.  Even when teams are the sole affiliate with a D-League team under the current rules, other teams around the league can sign players off of a different D-League team to their roster.  NBA teams argue that it is unfair for teams to use resources to develop players without the guarantee of being able to keep them.  This, of course, would require higher, and most likely guaranteed, salaries for players in the D-League, but it would be well worth it.

Recent Portland draft picks, like Luke Babbitt and Nolan Smith, have not produced at the NBA level, and have had their contract options declined as a result of it.  If they had significant time in the D-League to develop skills that translate to the highest level they would have achieved greater success.  There are many other teams around the league who express the same concerns about players, for example the high number of late lottery centers who have failed in the NBA.

I strongly endorse the expansion of the NBA developmental league, as it will make the League stronger over time, and help NBA teams gain a greater profit on their investment of players.

Any questions?