The Final Four begins tomorrow, as the conclusion of the greatest American sports event of the year comes to an end (only the World Cup can compete, in my opinion). Like two years ago, the Final Four was tough to predict. Louisville is the only 1 seed. No 2 or 3 seeds made it. Syracuse and Michigan are 4 seeds, and Wichita State is a 9 seed. There will be good games and solid prospects in play, though only one legitimate top 5 prospect will be playing (Trey Burke). Here are the previews for the games:
Louisville vs. Wichita State: Wichita State has had one hell of a run, knocking off the 1 and 2 seeds in Gonzaga and Ohio State, beating an underrated Pitt team, and an overachieving Ole Miss team. Carl Hall emerged from the shadows to become a legitimate second round draft prospect. Malcolm Armstead has made Duck fans miss him since his transfer, though Oregon is most likely content with their first sweet 16 appearance under Dana Altman. This Wichita State team has made their living off of made 3 pointers and rebound after rebound. They zone quite a bit, which has been tough for some opponents to figure out. Louisville has looked the part of the best team in the country. Russ Smith has emerged as what should be a first round lock (he isn't there yet in most analysts' eyes, but he is on BlazerBlog), Gorgui Dieng has been perhaps the best center in the tournament (top 3 at least), and Peyton Siva has been great at controlling the pace. The injury to Kevin Ware will hurt significantly, and Tim Henderson will be thrust into the rotation, but the emotion behind the injury could carry Louisville all the way. The key for Louisville is to stay out of foul trouble, as the Shockers get their way to the foul line well. The game should be close for the first 24-28 minutes, with Louisville breaking the game open in the last 10-12 minutes in a similar fashion as the Big East final. Louisville will wear down the Shocker guards with their ball pressure. Russ Smith should have another big game (I'll guess 25 and 4 steals). Prediction: Louisville 78 Wichita State 64
Michigan vs. Syracuse: This is the game that will be the most interesting. The match-up of Burke, perhaps the best smaller PG in the country, against Carter-Williams, a 6'6" PG who might be the best taller PG in the country, is the match-up to watch in this game. These teams match-up well to each other. Syracuse scores in transition, but doesn't allow many points due to their stringent zone. Michigan scores A LOT, and has capable scorers from every position. Their defense has not been great, as they gave up over 80 in regulation to Kansas before shutting down Florida with their defense. Which Michigan defense shows up? Burke (big board #5) and Carter-Williams (big board #13) are the best NBA Draft prospects, though there are others in this game who should be watched. Glenn Robinson III is a potential first round pick, but he needs a second year at Michigan to become a better player, and potentially become a lottery pick next year. Tim Hardaway Jr. is supposedly ready to bolt to the NBA, but he is a bubble first round prospect at best. If he has a huge Final Four, he could possibly work his way to the 20-25 range, but that is unlikely. He too needs a second year. McGary already announced he is returning, though he most likely would have been a top 20 pick this year, and Stauskas looks like a great prospect down the road in the mold of JJ Redick. For Syracuse, CJ Fair will be a second round pick due to his athleticism and outside shot, though he needs to prove he can play the 3 full time. As an undersized 4, he would have issues in the NBA. Southerland is a borderline draft prospect as a senior. At the end of the game, in the final minutes, this game will be incredibly tight. This game will come down to whether Burke or Carter-Williams can lead their team to glory. Prediction: Michigan 75 Syracuse 71
Michigan vs. Louisville will be a very compelling final match-up for the NCAA title. Could Syracuse or Wichita State get to the title game? Absolutely. This is what March Madness is all about. Which team wants it the most?
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