Michael Beasley, and the Tale of the #2 Overall Pick

The 6'10" forward from Kansas State has been deemed a liability thus far in his NBA career.  He has been called selfish, proven to be inefficient, and bounced from team to team after being selected number two overall by the Heat- one pick after Derrick Rose, and before Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert... you get the point.  The 2008 draft was thought to be strong at the time, and has shown to worth most of the hype.  The draft has, so far, produced 5 All-Stars, and a stellar group of starters with potential.- such as Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Ryan Anderson, Nicolas Batum and Serge Ibaka.  Mayo and Gallinari have underwhelmed as well, though both are being paid big dollars for their roles on their respective teams.  Even guys like JaVale McGee, JJ Hickson and Courtney Lee- drafted 18, 19 and 22- have made good money thus far, and have significant- albeit not a centerpiece- role for their teams.  Beasley stands out from the group as an underachiever.  He has had a more prosperous career than Joe Alexander (the 8th pick) and DJ Augustin (the 9th pick) but when selected number two expectations are understandably higher.  Here is how Beasley has evolved as a player (stats taken from ESPN.com):

As you can see, Beasley's numbers- statistically- haven't been terrible, highlighted by a 19.2 points per game campaign his first year in Minnesota (He was traded to reduce cap space by the Heat, so the team could assemble their big three).  Other stats on this list are scary.  His field goal percentage has dropped every year, and, consequently, so has his player efficiency.  During his highest scoring campaign, Beasley was essentially a league-average efficient player (15.54).  Last season with Phoenix, his number was only 10.91, sitting next to players like Lamar Odom, Sebastian Telfair and Marvin Williams.  His 10.91 number was good for 271st out of 344 players who qualified for the list (over 6.07 mpg via Hollinger's ESPN stats).

A trainwreck in Phoenix, Beasley has had numerous marijuana related citations, and was released despite having a significant amount of years and money left on his contract.  Today (9/12) he signed a non-guaranteed, veteran's minimum contract with the team that signed him- the Miami Heat.  For the Heat, this is a high upside signing.  He can be cut with no penalty (for a while) and, if he succeeds, he is capable of filling a bench scorer role and give their stars- especially James and Bosh- added breaks.  I give this signing a B+ for Miami though, because of the potential for locker room issues.  Given his lowly status on the team, I would be willing to bet he makes the roster and plays in a 10-12 minute per game role during the regular season for the defending champs.

Is Beasley alone?  Throughout the last decade, #2 picks haven't exactly had the best success rate in developing starter-level players.  Here is a list of the last ten #2 picks:

 The list of #2 picks is, overall, underwhelming, especially when considering some of the players drafted in the 3 picks after.  Most notably, in 2003 and 2009, each player drafted after the #2 pick has become a $10 million dollar player, many becoming All-Stars.  Outliers include Durant and Aldridge, who have outperformed the players drafted #1.  In theory, most of these players had a chance to go #1.  Derrick Williams had his supporters over Kyrie Irving.  Many people preferred Beasley to Rose.  Even Darko Milicic had big supporters.  Victor Oladipo is a player I am very high on- a had him ranked #2 in the draft- and I would be surprised to see him falter in many of the same ways others on this list have.  However, in each of those years, similar writers and fans would have said the same things about the #2 pick.

Over the last decade, the #2 pick has underwhelmed given expectations.  Beasley has obvious talent, but a low basketball IQ and off the court issues to be dealt with.  With Miami, he could carve out a nice niche as a bench scorer, and find another good contract next year.  But, his bridges are close to burnt, and it seems a long shot he will ever be more than an 8th man again in the league.  Right about now, I think the Heat (or not given how well the future has played out) would have preferred Westbrook, Love or even OJ Mayo to the pick they made in Michael Beasley.