The dunk that almost broke twitter:
And a compelling title game:
This season, I project a season that can rival last season's story lines. Here are ten questions I have regarding the season:
1. How do coaching changes affect the conference and national landscapes?
Perhaps the biggest loss, is former Butler coach Brad Stevens signing a six year deal with the Boston Celtics- a hire I love by the NBA franchise. Stevens has led a Butler program to unprecedented success without many high recruits. Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard, Roosevelt Jones, and most successful, Gordon Hayward were the top players representing the team that made back-to-back national title game appearances. The Butler team still has some talent, but will losing Stevens drastically affect the Bulldogs' season?
In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC have hired new coaches in the Pac-12. UCLA lured Steve Alford away from New Mexico- a program that had been successful over the past few seasons, and will be a good team again this year. He inherits a team with talent, led by point forward Kyle Anderson and wing Jordan Adams. If Alford can get the team to play cohesively, the Bruins should gain a berth in the NCAA tournament once again. USC hired Florida Gulf Coast's Andy Enfield, who was a media darling after he coached the #15 seed team to a sweet 16 appearance. His team showed an ability to convert lots of alley-oops in the tournament, and was exciting to watch against Georgetown and San Diego State- both wins. Can Enfield find more success in the Pac-12?
Minnesota hired Richard Pitino from FIU. Northwestern hired Duke assistant Chris Collins. Eddie Jordan goes to Rutgers. Tubby Smith was hired at Texas Tech. Expect all of these coaching changes to be instrumental over the next 3-5 seasons, but I doubt any of these teams make the NCAA tournament this next year.
2. Does conference re-alignment dictate more berths to mid-majors?
The Big East- widely regarded as the top conference over the last 5 years- has essentially dissolved. Many teams have left for the ACC, some formed the American conference, and others lie in a "Big East Purgatory-" for lack of a better phrase. Will this realignment mean more berths for other conferences, namely mid majors? I think yes, and expect the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, in particular, to reap the benefits. I predict 10 teams from the two conferences combined will make the tournament next year.
3. Will the Pac-12, once again, rise to becoming a great conference?
The Pac-12 will be better. Arizona is the favorite to win the conference, returning guard Nick Johnson, forward Brandon Ashley and center Kaleb Tarczewski to join with blue chip recruits Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The team has the initial look of a top 10 team, given Johnson proves he can handle the ball efficiently.
The Oregon Ducks are a team to watch as well. They have one of the best backcourts in the country in Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson, and received a gift of a transfer in former All-American Mike Moser, who is coming off an elbow injury at UNLV. If the Ducks find a presence inside, they could compete for a conference title.
Arizona State, led by Jahii Carson, Washington, led by Nigel Williams-Gross, and UCLA will all be factored into the national picture at some point. Expect the Pac-12 to end up with 5 bids, minimum, in the NCAA tournament.
4. Can Louisville repeat?
Russ Smith is back to lead the Cardinals, along with a still-impressive supporting cast of Behanan, Harrell, Blackshear, Jones and Ware. The season's success all rely on Smith's ability to produce, and, I don't expect him to disappoint. I think Louisville's defense is stellar again, and Behanan and Harrell should matchup well at the forward spots. The team may face difficulties against true centers, but not many teams can boast such an option. I like Louisville to finish a top ten team once again.
5. Will the freshman class impress as expected?
Last year, Calipari's one and done crowd disappointed, and a few of the players returned. This year, Kentucky again boasts one of the top recruiting classes, highlighted by Jerome Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson, and the Harrison twins. Coupled with the return of Poythress and Cauley-Stein, and UK could be a force to reckon with again. I think this team is much better than last year, led by Rande and Andrew Harrison.
The freshman class at Arizona will be good, and Kansas has three potential top 5 picks in Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Wayne Selden. Wiggins will be a preseason All-American as a freshman with an excellent chance to win the award. If he can prove to be an effective outside shooter, he will average 18-8 as a wing, and lead Kansas deep into the tournament. Kansas' freshman class will outshine the one at Kentucky.
Finally, will Jabari Parker be the go-to guy at Duke? He is a tremendous scorer, and will be lethal at the college level. Next to Sulaimon and Marshall Plumlee, Duke has a young big three that could lead to an ACC title this year.
6. Who will be the All-Americans?
Here are my pre-preseason picks- I have the right to change this in my official college basketball preview which will come out next month:
In no particular order, here are some players I expect to write about on the list next month,
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Alex Kirk/New Mexico
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Gary Harris/Michigan State
Mitch McGary/Michigan
Russ Smith/Louisville
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Kevin Pangos/Gonzaga
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Jerelle Benimon/Towson
Yogi Ferrell/Indiana
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
Briante Weber/VCU
Jerome Randle/Kentucky
7. What are the games to watch this season?
An early 10 I am looking forward to are:
Arizona vs. Michigan
Duke vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon vs. Georgetown
Duke vs. UCLA
VCU vs. Michigan (Would be 2nd round of Puerto Rico classic if all works out)
Gonzaga vs. Baylor (Would be 2nd round of Maui Invitational)
Syracuse vs. Indiana
Kansas vs. New Mexico
8. Who are the top teams heading into the season?
Here is my preseason top 15:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Michigan
6 Arizona
7 Gonzaga
8 Kentucky
9 Indiana
10 Duke
11 Marquette
12 Florida
13 VCU
14 New Mexico
15 Oregon
9. What teams are likely to disappoint?
Unfortunately, I think Syracuse and North Carolina, in particular, will take a step backwards this season. Syracuse doesn't have a go to player offensively, and doesn't have many shooters. Expect teams to pack the lane and make CJ Fair hit threes instead of getting to the rim, or the 8-12 foot range where he is so effective. North Carolina returns PJ Hairston, who has had a flurry of off court issues this offseason. I like Page at the point, and James has intriguing potential inside, but I like a lot of other ACC teams to knock off the Tar Heels this season. It looks like an NIT type of year.
Wichita State was a great story last year, but I don't see much of a chance for the Shockers to repeat their success. Likewise, don't expect another 30 win season from Memphis. Both teams could be NCAA tournament bound again, but expecting a deep run is overly optimistic.
10. Which conferences will be the strongest?
Here is my prediction of the top 5 conferences:
1. ACC
2. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. Pac 12
5. SEC
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