A September Peek at the Blazers

The NBA Season officially begins next month!  I know what you're thinking already...  it is only the beginning of September, there is no need to be this excited already.  I am pumped for some Blazers basketball this season.  The team has made moves to improve, and has the definite talent on the roster to make a playoff push.  There is no "too early" time to start talking basketball.

The Blazers boast a "big three"  "fine 2.5" of LaMarcus Aldridge- our All-Star PF who has spent the summer engulfed in trade request rumors (to which he denies)- Damian Lillard- our bright up-and-coming PG who will have a game somewhere between Stephen Curry and John Wall- and _________.  That last spot should go to Nicolas Batum- our supposed top defender, and 3 man.  Batum is maddeningly passive at times, but, his play before his series of nagging injuries was very impressive.  His season this year should approach some of the better seasons Luol Deng- a former All-Star in his own right- have put together.  He scores from every spot on the court, is a good passer, and is fantastic with chase down highlight reel blocks.  If he wants to elevate his game to the next level, and become the last member of Portland's supposed "Big Three"- for lack of a better phrase- he needs to become more comfortable making plays for himself, and actually pride himself on making stops.  He is an above average defender at this point, but nothing to truly want to go to other teams' fans and boast about.  This is his year to step up- failure could result in more "retooling."

Wesley Matthews is the glue guy on this team.  A 3 and D player, Matthews was our best defender last season.  He plays with heart, and is generally a smart player on the court who has shown the ability to make big shots (See Miami highlights last season).  Matthews needs to focus this season on improving his efficiency.  He needs to avoid turning the ball over, and he needs to shoot 40% from 3.  These are reasonable and realistic goals for Matthews.

Aldridge and Lillard will lead this team.  They need support from Batum and Matthews most in order to prevent another late season collapse.  My big conspiracy theory- though most likely accurate- surrounds the team's lack of depth last year.  Terry Stotts played his starters too much; and, this decision resulted in tired bodies and nagging injuries down the stretch.  60 games through the season, this team was playing .500 basketball, and in contention for one of the last playoff spots in the West with a solid push.  Lillard is a year more experienced, but has to be a better defender- above league average- if this team is truly destined for success.  We all saw what he is capable offensively- deep three point shots, crafty ball handling, and even a few big dunks.  Offensively, he should be able to provide the same level of offense that Brandon Roy provided for this team (It is unfair to Lillard to compare the two at this point, but he is stepping into a big role as a former ROY (which are similar conditions to which Roy had after his rookie year)).  The league, according to many, has become a "Point Guard driven league."  If he can stop more opponents with his quick footwork, his evolution as a player will continue to positively progress.

Like Lillard, Blazer fans everywhere know what Aldridge is capable of.  He is a good rebounder and defender- but will never earn recognition for either.  Offensively, he is incredible in the pick and pop, and- outside of Kevin Love and Ryan Anderson- may be the best perimeter shooting big man (not counting three pointers).  He is deadly in the low post, and has a high release that is impossible to block.  The key for Aldridge this season is to STAY DOWN LOW more.  Wow.  Aldridge has strayed to the perimeter more and more each season- which is to the detriment of the team this year.  A few years ago he was among the league leaders in dunks, and saw a tremendous number of touches at the left block.  Last year under Stotts?  Not so much.  This has to change, as Portland can't solely rely on jump shooting to get them to the playoffs.  I am not saying Aldridge shouldn't be taking some outside shots.  He should be.  Between 60-70% of his shot attempts, however, should come from inside 10 feet.

Outside of those 4 players- Lillard, Matthews, Batum, and Aldridge- the rotation significantly changes in a positive manner.  JJ Hickson has been replaced by Robin Lopez and Thomas Robinson.  Luke Babbitt has been replaced by Dorell Wright.  Eric Maynor- who played well for Portland last year- signed with the Wizards, and is replaced by Mo Williams.  The team drafted combo guard CJ McCollum from Lehigh.  McCollum is a player I think will make an immediate impact with his ability to score and shoot the ball.  Lineups with Lillard and McCollum, both, should be utilized.  Remaining from last year's squad is Victor Claver, Joel Freeland and Will Barton, though all should expect to see a decrease in their roles (perhaps not Claver to the same extent).  Also returning is Meyers Leonard, the 7-footer from Illinois who impressed last year with his offensive abilities, but made viewers cringe with his post defense.  His role should stay the same, seeing between 18-20 minutes per game at the 5 spot.  Finally, we drafted an additional shooter in Allan Crabbe.

What do all these changes mean?  New team chemistry needs to be built, new relationships formed.  I don't know who will start at center.  Lopez seems like the favorite, but I am skeptical of his offensive flaws and his lack of rebounding prowess.  Leonard is the better offensive player (minus screen setting and offensive rebounding), but is not the defensive player that Lopez is.  Robinson can sure rebound, and will dunk the ball whenever possible.  That said, starting him at the 5 would induce similar problems that starting JJ Hickson at the 5 produced.  I would expect all three to see some time next to LA until cohesive bonds are formed.  Dorell Wright is a terrific shooter who can play good defense, and has the ability to play the stretch 4 spot.  In case you missed my article a few months ago (http://nbablazers.blogspot.com/2013/04/a-stretch-4-in-portland.html), LA played great with Babbitt- a mediocre stretch 4 in his own right- next to him.  Wright is a significant upgrade, and, I am excited to see the two play together to see if this trend continues.  Victor Claver is never going to be a great scorer.  He does all of the little things well though.  He is smart, will defend and rebound, and will make the hustle play.  When Batum sat out, Claver started those games not to fill Batum's production, but because he could fit in and mesh easily with the other starters.  His minutes will fluctuate this year, but don't be surprised if he makes it on the court during the end of some close games.  Williams and McCollum provide massive upgrades behind Lillard, assuring Blazer fans everywhere that Lillard will not lead the league in minutes again- a rather dubious stat to lead the league in.  Williams is terrific offensively, but is not a great defender.  Ideally, the other players around him can step up and help some.  Defensive inadequacies aside, no one can realistically question the upgrade Williams makes on this team over many of the backup PG's the team has had in recent history. 

I expect the team- at this point- to win between 42 and 50 games.  I know this is a large range- and likely the difference between the 5 and 10 spots in the playoff standings, but, until we know more about how the players will react to each other, it is too early to make a concrete prediction.  Excitement surrounds this season for good reason.  There is no reason to think the Blazers won't compete for a playoff seed.  The time has come to return.  Let the countdown to the start of the season begin!