Thursday, June 6, 2013

State of the Suns

Phoenix wound up as the worst team in the Western Conference, and 4th worst in the league.  Unfortunately, they were jumped on draft day by Washington, and are now picking 5th in the draft.  Their roster is unimpressive.  Their best player is Goran Dragic, who has the potential to be a double-double player with points an assists.  His biggest issue?  The players around him.  Dragic is in the upper half of starting point guards, and could have started for some playoff teams this year (Atlanta, Houston, LAL, Chicago, Miami) and improved upon what they already had.  He shoots the ball well from the perimeter, and shows good court vision.  He won't ever be Steve Nash to Phoenix, but he is still a very good starting PG on a very reasonable contract.  The rest of their team?  Here is how their depth chart looks now:

1 Dragic/Marshall
2 Dudley/Brown
3 Morris/Morris
4 Scola/Beasley
5 Gortat/Frye
The team also has team options on Haddadi and Tucker, and can place a qualifying offer on Garrett.  I would expect all three to be declined. 

Statistical Leaders from 2012/13:
Points: Dragic (14.7)
Rebounds: Gortat (8.5)
Assists: Dragic (7.4)
Blocks: Gortat (1.6)
Steals: Dragic (1.6)

The team has roughly 10 million dollars in cap space, but has not spent money wisely over the past few summers, having given out average players like Beasley, Frye, Warrick and Childress, lucrative and long contracts.  The team has some flexibility, but given the lack of talent on the roster (Dragic, Gortat and Dudley are 3 best players, and ok young talent) there will not be many free agents wanting to go to Phoenix.  As a result, they may have to overpay someone, or look for value (the smarter choice).  Here are free agent and draft fits for the team:

Team Needs: SF, SG, PF
Free Agency:

Tony Allen- Phoenix was an awful defensive team last year.  Enter Allen- the best wing defender in the league right now.  He won't make a lot of shots, but he would have an increased role than he has in Memphis.  Allen could start to change the mentality in Phoenix that the run and gun offense should be maintained.  New coach Jeff Hornacek should help with that as well.

David West- West was the glue holding together a good Indiana team.  Even though he said he wanted to resign with the Pacers, the Suns could make it interesting by offering a lucrative, short term contract.  West scores in multiple ways, and would be an upgrade over Luis Scola, who is more of a backup at this point in his career.

JJ Redick- Redick has been a hot topic in this series, but he fits the mold of a player who could get overpaid.  Dragic needs reliable options to find on the wing, and Redick is the best option on the market.

Andrew Bynum- What's left in his knees?  Who knows, but Phoenix's training staff is the highest regarded in the league.  Maybe something could be figured out.

Greg Oden- No, they probably aren't that desperate, but similar logic applies.

Draft:
Ben McLemore- McLemore has drawn Ray Allen comparisons.  He would find a good situation in Phoenix where he could be the go to guy with time to experiment.  He could score 20 points a game in his first year, possibly inefficiently.  A Dragic/McLemore backcourt would be potent offensively.

Victor Oladipo- Oladipo has tremendous defensive potential.  What if they were able to add Allen and Oladipo?  What wing wants to go up against that?  The quickest way to get back into contention is to build from the defense first.  Oladipo would fit nicely in Phoenix.

Otto Porter- Does anyone actually think the Morris twins or Michael Beasley should play extended minutes at the 3?  I don't.  All three are low efficiency stretch 4's who Phoenix would be wise in trading (Beasley especially, if someone wanted him.  What about a Beasley/Brown for Bargnani swap?)  Porter does everything well, and would fit in right away as a true 3 man.

What does the future look like?  It is uncertain.  The Suns have a pivotal offseason where they need to change a lot about the club.  Overpaid players like Beasley, Scola and Frye (Who is coming back from a heart issue) do not come off the books until after the 2014/15 season.  If the Suns build a defensive squad with some shooting involved (i.e. Memphis' plan) they could be contenders in a few years.  Until then, next year will be rough, and they should cross their fingers for Andrew Wiggins.


No comments:

Post a Comment