Sunday, June 23, 2013

State of the Blazers- Part One

Thus far I have previewed the top 6 teams in the draft, and am now going to skip to Portland in the draft order.  Portland is a team with a bright future- a team that contended far better than expected this season.  LaMarcus Aldridge had a stellar year, and earned an All-Star appearance for the 2nd time.  Damian Lillard emerged as the rookie of the year, and a point guard heavily coveted around the league.  Nic Batum started out hot, but injuries plagued his season, and his effectiveness went down.  These three players are reliable building blocks- and deep playoff caliber ones at that.  Wesley Matthews is a solid starter, and is a good, albeit streaky, shooter.  Combined with young talent in Meyers Leonard and Will Barton- who showed flashes at the end of the year- and European imports Freeland and Claver, the Blazers have a decent core moving into the summer, though it is absolutely imperative to expand on the team's depth, a major issue this past year.  Here is the team's depth chart entering the summer, and draft on Thursday:

1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
QO- Maynor, 50/50 odds of resigning.
Notable FA- Hickson, likely to sign elsewhere
Euro rights held- Kostas Papanikolaou (Greece)

Stat Leaders:
Points: Aldridge (21.1)
Rebounds: Hickson (10.4)
Assists: Lillard (6.5)
Steals: Matthews (1.3)
Blocks: Aldridge (1.2)

The team has roughly 10 million dollars to spend this summer, and has 4 draft choices, 10, 39, 40 and 45 at their disposal.  I would doubt the team picks 4 players, so expect some movement from the team on draft day.  I am dividing up Blazers draft targets into 4 categories:
  1. Trade Up
  2. Pick 10 options
  3. Trade down/Trade up with rd. 2's
  4. Round 2 options
Trade Up:  Only 2 realistic options

1.  Victor Oladipo- I believe any trade up would have to be centered around Oladipo, the energetic 2 guard from Indiana.  He ranks 2nd on my board, though could go between 2-5.  It would cost lots to move up for him, likely Wesley Matthews and pick 10.

2.  Nerlens Noel- I write this cautiously.  Rumors afloat- and they seem to have some legs to them- have the Cavs favoring Alex Len for the number one overall pick (stay tuned for updates on this).  If Noel were to fall some, Portland may want to make an offer (most likely the same as above).  He does have injury concerns, but his defensive potential pairs well with what Aldridge wants in a center.

Pick 10 options:  I'd be stunned if it wasn't one of these 5 players, ranked in order of Blazers' most likely preference.

1.  CJ McCollum- McCollum is a combo guard from Lehigh who is a terrific shooter and scorer, though needs to improve as a point guard.  He rebounds and defends well enough, but his on ball defense, especially, could improve.  He would fit in as a 6th man option who could back up both guard spots.

2.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- The SG from Georgia has had a rapid climb over the past few months up the draft board.  He is a great shooter and defender, though is a shaky ball handler and decision maker.  His potential makes him a very intriguing option, and he would be an option to start at the 2 in a few years.

3.  Cody Zeller- Oladipo's Indiana teammate reminds me of a 6'11 David West.  He is very skilled, and has range on his jump shot out to 20 feet.  He is not a great defender, though he is a very good rebounder with a high motor.  If the previous 2 players are gone, Zeller would likely be the best player available (#7 on my board).

4.  Steven Adams- Adams is a 7'1 center from Pittsburgh who is a true shot blocking center with an NBA body.  Unlike Leonard, he is incredibly raw offensively, and would have trouble scoring in any situation at the next level.  He is a project, though physical specimens like him don't come around to often.  For the record, I am against drafting Adams- as Leonard is our project center (don't need 2).  However he is a possibility here.

5.  Shabazz Muhammad- I don't think Shabazz would be the pick, but if the team wants a wing player, and McCollum and KCP are off the board, Muhammad would be the top available.  He scores and rebounds well for a guard, but is a me-first player with red flags.  He is a risky, but intriguing project.

Trade Down/Up:  I don't see this as a true option for Portland unless they fall in love with a player and try to maneuver the draft board.  Here are 2 players who could be targets:

1.  Gorgui Dieng- I wouldn't have much of a problem with Dieng in the late lottery, but he most likely goes between 15-25.  He is a terrific defender who needs to get stronger, and has a mid range jumpshot and solid post passing skills.  He is more NBA ready than Adams would be.

2.  Glen Rice Jr.- Rice Jr. was a D-League playoffs MVP who excelled playing a stretch 4 spot despite being a shooting guard.  He has red flags from his college era, but there is no doubt that he dominated against good competition when given the chance.  Character concerns scare me- I think he is more of an early round 2 prospect- but sources have linked Rice to Portland.

2nd round possibilities:  Lots of options- positions likely dependent on who is taken at pick 10.

1.  Nemanja Nedovic- I bet he goes in round 1 on draft day, but he could easily slip to Portland at 39/40.  I have him ranked 23 due to his scoring ability and athleticism.  His PG skills and defensive intensity need to improve, but he has too much potential to ignore.  He could be one of the best values and sleepers in the draft.

2.  Colton Iverson- Iverson reminds me of Przybilla some.  The 7-footer from Colorado State has an NBA body, and is a fantastic rebounder.  He would be a low-usage player who would most likely be a 5th big man in his first few years.  If he can develop a more consistent mid range shot he will be a long term backup NBA center.

3.  Andre Roberson- I think that players with one elite skill in round 2 are good options to take.  Roberson is an elite rebounder off the wing, and has potential to be a small ball 4 if he can improve his outside shot (Corner 3 especially.)  I really like Roberson's potential in this draft to make an impact as a 2nd round pick.

4.  Brandon Paul- Guys who can score are always appreciated.  Paul has deep range and can score in a variety of ways.  Playing at Illinois, he was the go to player, and often was forced into poor shot selection.  At the NBA level, he could wind up as a valuable role player.

5.  Archie Goodwin- Goodwin had struggles at Kentucky, but at only 18 with his potential he could have a Lance Stephenson like effect as a rd. 2 pick.  He was overrated coming out of high school, but still shows ability as a passer and slasher.  With an improved outside shot and decision making, Goodwin could be a steal.

Part 2- Free Agency will come after the draft- stay tuned!

* New Big Board tomorrow!

No comments:

Post a Comment