Monday, June 3, 2013

State of the Cavaliers

The Cavs struck gold twice in 3 years by earning the top pick in this draft.  Will it matter?  The Cavs finished 3rd worst in the NBA, but their roster suggests a better winning percentage.  Kyrie Irving is regarded as a top ten PG, and future star, but he has not led his team to anything yet.  Anderson Varejao was playing great before his injury, and Tristan Thompson showed improvement as well.  They have a good young SG in Dion Waiters as well, their top choice from the 2012 draft.  The Cavs look to have a brighter future than many teams they finished behind this year.  If Irving, especially, can be healthy, this franchise could make the playoffs in the next 2 years.  Here is their depth going into the offseason:

1 Irving
2 Waiters
3 Gee
4 Thompson/Speights
5 Varejao/Zeller

Team Option on Miles, QO on Casspi and Ellington.  They are roughly 22 million dollars under the salary cap with 8 roster spots to fill. They have 4 draft picks: 1, 19, 31, 33.

Statistical Leaders from 2012/13:
Points: Irving (22.5)
Rebounds: Thompson (9.4)- But Varejao was averaging 14 per game before his injury
Assists: Irving (5.9)
Steals: Irving (1.5)
Blocks: Zeller (0.9)

Biggest Needs: SF, Post Depth, Guard Depth

Cleveland has good, young players, though health has been an issue.  Irving took the next step towards becoming a star, and yearly all-star, but he needs to up his assist totals to be mentioned in the same tier as Chris Paul and Deron Williams, to name a few.  Improving his supporting cast, and adding shooters, is important for Irving's continued development.  Thompson finished the season an 11/9 player.  If he continues his growth, he will have been a good pick at 4- a reach (so I thought) on draft day.  Varejao is mentioned in the same breath as Joakim Noah, when healthy.  Waiters looks like a 6th man (another reach on draft day, in my opinion) and Gee is a solid contributor off the bench.  Adding depth is important.

Free Agent fits:
Josh Smith:  Smith fits the mold of a defensive player who can play the 3 or 4.  They might have to overpay to get him in Cleveland, but he could help vault the team into the playoff picture for next year.  He would play second fiddle to Irving, but he would most likely see similar production as he saw in Atlanta.

JJ Redick:  Redick fills the need of a shooter who can play above average defense.  He would stretch the floor for Irving and Varejao, and provide an accurate and steady option at the two.  He likely would not cost too much either

Jarrett Jack:  The Cavs could use a combo guard to spare Irving from playing long minutes, but also play with him as well.  Enter Jack.  The Warriors have a tighter cap situation, and he could be stolen for a slightly excessive offer.  A three guard unit of Irving, Waiters and Jack would be solid.

Draft fits:
Pick 1:
Nerlens Noel- The Cavs have Varejao as a solid defensive center, and can add Noel as a high motor shot blocker who has lots of potential.  Is he raw?  Yes he is.  But he is the best player in the draft, and should become a Cavalier.

Otto Porter- Porter is #4 on my board, but is the only other player who could go #1.  SF is the weakest spot in their starting rotation, and Porter is a player who would fit in nicely.  He could be a Danny Granger type scorer who plays a bit more defense if he fulfills his potential.

Pick 19:
Sergey Karasev- Karasev is a sweet shooting 3 man from Russia.  He is a smart player, along the lines of a Rudy Fernandez, but less of a ball handler.  Shooting is a big need for Cleveland, and Karasev would be a good addition.

Giannis Antetokoumpo- The mystery man from Greece could go here to Cleveland.  Despite finishing 3rd worst, the Cavs could be in a position to use a pick to stash Antetokoumpo overseas for a few years.  His physical attributes are impressive, and he has dominated the lower levels of Greek basketball (emphasis on the lower.)  He could be a future starter or a bust, but Cleveland can afford to take the risk.

2nd round picks:
Nemanja Nedovic- Nedovic is a high flying combo guard from Serbia who I would take in the first round.  Many boards have him slated as a second round pick, which could make him the steal of the draft.  He needs to improve his ball handling and shooting stroke, but he has as much potential as many guys who will go in round 1.

CJ Leslie- Leslie is another player who could go in round 1.  He is a high energy, athletic player who can play both forward positions.  If he can add a mid-range jump shot to his game, he could find himself in a rotation for a long time.

What does the future look like?  It is bright.  Mike Brown was re-hired as the head coach (Brian Shaw would have been a better hire...), and Kyrie Irving should become a star.  I fully expect the Cavs to make the playoffs in two years, and potentially grab the 7 or 8 seed next year.  Forget LeBron coming back- it is not going to happen.  If they stay the course they are currently on, and can avoid free agent decisions that will cripple the team for the next 4 years (see:  Pistons:  Gordon and Villanueva), there is no reason to think the team won't be successful.


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