Saturday, June 29, 2013

NBA Draft Grades

I typically don't like giving out grades for drafts, as it truly takes a few years to tell how good a team's draft was.  I am going to diverge from my usual process and give grades out this year, and in a few years we will see if the value that teams thought they had truly existed.  Here are the draft grades for last night's epic event:

Atlanta:  Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto- I like what Atlanta did.   They added two high potential players who will likely stay in Europe another year.  That is ok because the Hawks are rebuilding.  Muscala can contribute as a stretch 5, and Neto has potential as a draft and stash pick.  Grade: B

Boston:  Kelly Olynyk, Colton Iverson- Boston made headlines not for their draft, but for the trade they made that sent Garnett, Pierce and Terry to Brooklyn for Gerald Wallace, Kris Kardashian Humphries, and 3 first round picks.  Rebuilding is about to start in Boston, which is why taking a low ceiling player like Olynyk is puzzling.  He will play minutes right away, but is not a terrific athlete, and plays a similar role as Jeff Green will play more effectively.  I'm puzzled by the moves Boston made.  Grade: D

Brooklyn:  Mason Plumlee- Plumlee will likely be a 7th man as his ceiling, though he can step into a role right away.  Given that the team has over 80 million dollars committed to their new starting 5 of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett and Lopez, adding an NBA ready role player, and a cheap one, was a good pick rather than taking a player more suited for success in a few years.  Grade: B+

Charlotte:  Cody Zeller- Zeller was a surprising pick with Noel and Len still available.  He is very skilled, but might not help the Bobcats dig their way out of the Eastern Conference cellar.  Noel would have been a better pick, which would have emphasized defense next to Kidd-Gilchrist.  I am higher on Zeller than most, and see him as a definite starter at the 4 spot, but this seemed like a slight reach.  Grade: C+

Chicago:  Tony Snell, Erik Murphy- I would have taken Snell in the second round.  He is a great athlete and a good shooter, but he is far away from competing at an NBA level, and other players at a similar position could have been better suited to play in Chicago.  With Deng and Butler already in place, I really question this pick for Chicago.  Murphy is a solid stretch 4, but I have to think the Bulls need a guard.  Grade: C-

Cleveland:  Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix- Cleveland shocked the world when they took Bennett #1- my 9th ranked player in the draft.  With Tristan Thompson in place already at the 4, and Bennett's weight issues and lack of quickness holding him back from playing the 3, I have to think the Cavs overthought this top pick.  Karasev is a terrific shooter, and Felix could be a solid role player, but this draft grade has to reflect the reach Cleveland made at the top of this draft.  Grade: C+

Dallas:  Shane Larkin, Ricky Ledo- Dallas moved back twice and traded Cunningham in an effort to save salary cap space to lure Dwight Howard.  Larkin is a terrific shooter and should be able to perform better than Darren Collison in due time.  Ledo is a boom or bust pick with significant red flags.  At pick 43, a good value.  Grade: B

Denver:  Erick Green, Joeffrey Lauvergne- Denver added Green, the 46th pick, by trading Rudy Gobert's draft rights.  Green fits as a scorer off the bench, and will lessen the amount of time Brian Shaw will have to play Andre Miller.  I thought he was a great pick in round 2.  I am befuddled over their trade of Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur and the rights to Lauvergne.  Koufos was a very good center for Denver in a limited starter role, but the trade makes way for JaVale McGee to play more minutes.  Now who does Denver have as a second center option?  Grade:  B-

Detroit:  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Mitchell, Peyton Siva- Detroit added very good value in this draft.  Pope fills a need at SG, and shows the team still has faith in Brandon Knight.  Mitchell could have gone in the late lottery without a lot of head-scratching, so getting him at 37 is remarkable.  Siva has definite backup PG potential.  I think Detroit could secure a playoff spot next year, but the key will be Knight's development next to Pope, Monroe and Drummond.  Grade:  A-

Golden State:  Nemanja Nedovic-  I wanted Nedovic in Portland.  He was a great value pick at 30, and it would not surprise me to see him filling part of the role Jarrett Jack's likely departure will leave.  If he comes over right away, many teams in the low to mid 20s will be giving their best Homer Simpson "doh" impression.  A great pick.  Grade:  B+

Houston:  Isaiah Canaan- Jeremy Lin is solid, though he isn't a player who can play 40mpg effectively.  Canaan is an upgrade at the backup one spot, and has shooting that Kevin McHale will love.  A good pick.  Grade:  B

Indiana:  Solomon Hill- Really?  Solomon Hill was a fringe second round pick.  To take him in the first round is laughable.  Hill was a 4 year player who can play some minutes, but I think Indiana is overly optimistic here.  I expected so much more from Kevin Pritchard.  Grade: F

LA Clippers:  Reggie Bullock- The Clippers needed shooting.  They got shooting.  Bullock has an NBA body, and can fill in the role Caron Butler plays once his deal expires.  I like this pick, and it fills a need.  Bonus: They still have Bledsoe!  Grade:  B

LA Lakers:  Ryan Kelly- The Lakers pick of Kelly is okay.  They needed someone to stretch the 4 and make 3s- both things he can do.  I am concerned over who he defends, and his athletic ability.  I have a hard time seeing him playing minutes, even for an aging Lakers squad.  Grade:  C

Memphis:  Jamaal Franklin, Janis Timma- I was not in love with Franklin as a draft prospect, and thought he as overrated.  The fall to #41 was further than I would have guessed, and Memphis got a steal this late in the draft process.  Timma will likely never play in the NBA, and they would have been better served taking a forward like CJ Leslie.  Grade:  B

Miami:  James Ennis-  The Heat traded in to take the swingman from Long Beach State.  Given the aging prospects on the end of that bench, Ennis brings some intrigue to the table.  He is better than James Jones!  Grade:  B-

Milwaukee:  Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nate Wolters:  I give John Hammond a lot of credit for taking a chance on the Greek.  He isn't ready yet, but I think will become an NBA starter some day.  The Bucks did not need help in the frontcourt- as they have solid depth with Sanders, Henson, Ilyasova and Mbah A Moute- but could have used a shooting guard.  With Redick leaving, and Ellis looking for money elsewhere (he won't get it), Milwaukee may have a tough time finding a two-guard.  It looks like Hammond is close to hitting the reset button.  Grade:  B

Minnesota:  Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng, Lorenzo Brown, Bojan Dubljevic- I think Minnesota got very good value out of their draft picks.  Muhammad has a reputation for being selfish, though guards like Rubio and Ridnour especially will be putting him in a place where he needs to score.  Dieng instantly upgrades the backup center spot, and is insurance if Pekovic plays elsewhere next season.  Brown is the 5th PG on the roster, but was good value where they added him.  Dubljevic is a sweet shooting 4 man who we won't hear from in a few years.  Muhammad could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate.  Who else stands out for it?  Grade:  A-

New Orleans:  Pierre Jackson- The Pelicans selected Noel, but dealt him with a top 3 protected 2014 1st round pick for Jrue Holiday.  Holiday was an All-Star at the point last year, and should help New Orleans new core built around Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.  New Orleans now has Vasquez as a 6th man, and should be contenders for a low playoff seed this year.  I like what they did.  Grade: A-

New York Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr.- The Knicks fans actually cheered!  Though I am less in love with this pick than they are.  JR Smith will walk, and Shumpert will start at the 2, which left an opening for a SG who could stretch the floor on the bench.  Hardaway is streaky and one-dimensional.  He is athletic, but the team took a guy I had rated as an early rd. 2 pick in the first round.  Grade:  C+

Oklahoma City:  Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Grant Jerrett- I am surprised OKC took so many rookies.  I bet all three end up in the D-League.  Adams has the most potential in the group, but is 2 years away from being anything more than a 5th big man.  Roberson should progress nicely if he can develop an outside jump shot- but this is Sam Presti's attempt to, again, prove he is smarter than the rest of the league.  Abrines could be a nice addition as a draft and stash, and Jerrett is good value as a non-guaranteed stretch 4.  Still have to think Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb will get lots more minutes than these guys.  Grade:  B

Orlando Magic:  Victor Oladipo, Romero Osby- Oladipo may have been my favorite player in the draft, and was an excellent selection by Rob Hennigan.  He will fit nicely next to Vucevic and Harris, and helps speed up the rebuilding process in Orlando.  A top pick next year could put them back into the playoff picture.  Also- Romero Osby?  I hate this pick about as much as the Solomon Hill pick.  He would have gone undrafted in the D-League draft.  Grade:  B+

Philadelphia:  Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Arsalan Kazemi- Philadelphia hit the reset button by trading for Noel and a 2014 rd. 1 pick by giving up Holiday.  The team will not be good next year, which increases the odds of having 2 very high first round picks in a loaded draft class.  Noel and Carter-Williams will be given playing time and opportunities to make mistakes.  I think they will wind up ahead of the learning curve.  Kazemi is an energy guy who teammates will love playing with.  I think Hinkie nailed this draft.  Grade:  A+

Phoenix:  Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, Alex Oriakhi- Phoenix is going to be bad again next year.  Len has a tremendous upside, but he will be stuck behind Gortat in year one, and on a team with a bunch of young players who have not reached their potential.  Goodwin was a solid value pick, and should be given time to prove he belongs.  I would be surprised if Oriakhi makes the team.  Overall, Phoenix is banking on picking high again next year.  Grade:  B-

Portland:  CJ McCollum, Allan Crabbe, Jeff Withey, Marko Todorovic- I think Neil Olshey did a wonderful job drafting for Portland.  McCollum fills a need as a combo scoring guard who can play effectively with and without Lillard.  He could be a summer league MVP.  Crabbe and Withey were both late first round talents, so to get them in the second round was perfect.  Withey likely is our backup center next year, assuming Leonard starts- a big assumption at this point- and Crabbe will get minutes to backup Matthews.  Todorovic is young, and playing on a good Barcelona team.  He should keep getting better overseas.  I love what Portland did.  Grade:  A

Sacramento:  Ben McLemore, Ray McCallum- Sacramento did well.  McLemore was my 4th rated prospect, and others had him atop their boards.  To get him at 7 was tremendous.  He doesn't have a huge ego, but has a smooth game.  In a locker room with Cousins and Evans, he will need to find a role model somewhere.  McCallum is another average PG who will fight for minutes with Jimmer and Thomas.  That spot is still up for grabs.  Grade:  B+

San Antonio:  Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas- Jean-Charles had a huge Nike Hoop Summit, which boosted his stock into the end of the first round.  Look for him to play in France for one more year before joining fellow Frenchmen Parker and even Diaw.  Thomas is a lethal scorer who doesn't know the word defense.  Under Popovich, he could find a role as a stretch 4.  Grade: B-

Toronto Raptors:  No picks, No Grade

Utah:  Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert- I really like what Utah did.  They needed a PG, and got the best one in the draft.  They needed a center to replace Al Jefferson (likely) and they added the longest guy in the draft.  They had needs and filled them without giving much up.  Utah will fight for a playoff spot again next year.  Grade:  B+

Washington:  Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.- Porter to Washington was a phenomenal fit.  He will start at the 3 next to Wall and Beal, in a very promising 1-3 rotation for the next few years.  Rice can be a terrific bench scorer without the mindset of Jordan Crawford.  They still need some big men in the next few years, and John Wall should get a max deal, but Washington has enough pieces to make a run for the 8th seed next year.  They did well.  Grade: A-


Bonus- If I were a GM I would be trying to get my hands on CJ Leslie, Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Paul.  These 3 guys will all make a roster next year, and have the best chances to make us wonder why 30 teams passed twice on them.



 

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