Tonight Indiana will play Miami for the right to play San Antonio in the NBA finals. A lot is on the line tonight. Legacies? Big 3? Conspiracies? Pacers? Heat?
Not a lot changes tonight- the same starters are expected, and the same shot distribution should be expected. LeBron was recently knocked by his teammates for shooting more- a rather ridiculous thought, right? He is scoring 30 a game, while adding 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game. Would you want Wade and Bosh, who are shooting very poorly at the moment, taking more shots than James? (also, James is only taking 4 more shots per game- it's not like he has gone JR Smith on the Heat). If Wade and Bosh feel the need to get theirs, and miss, Miami could be in trouble. Here are my keys to game 7:
1. Win the turnover battle- Indiana knows this from earlier games in the series. If a team turns the ball over more than 10-12 times per game, they are giving away far too many opportunities to score in transition. Indiana especially needs to keep their TOs under 10.
2. George vs. James- James is going to put up his usual stat line of 30/7/7. Can Paul George match it? If he scores more than 20, Indiana has a good shot to win. If he has a poor outing, there may not be much scoring from the outside. Hill can shoot, and Stephenson is streaky, but neither possess the overall floor game of George. He must play well tonight.
3. Points in the paint- Miami has been brutalized inside. West and Hibbert have exposed Bosh inside, and Birdman only helps to an extent (having him back in game 7 will help A LOT). If Miami can stay within 7 in the points in the paint battle, they will have a good chance of winning.
Overall this game is a toss-up. If Indiana shoots well, Miami could fall. If Miami gets easy baskets in transition, and LeBron gets a little support from the other big 2, Indiana should fall. I would love to see Indiana beat Miami. The "not 5, not 6" speech still leaves me wanting to see them lose. Is it realistic?
The pick: Miami 92 Indiana 90
No comments:
Post a Comment