The NBA Draft Combine begins tomorrow (Wednesday). All of the top collegiate prospects + 2 international players in Rudy Gobert and Dennis Schroeder (All of the other international prospects have conflicts with their teams) are attending. This is last chance for all of the prospects to dramatically improve their draft stock before personal workouts. The players will run through position specific drills and athletic testing in front of scouts, coaches and GMs (And potentially you! Check watchESPN and ESPNU for coverage). Last year, Miles Plumlee emerged from the combine as a 7 footer with a 40 inch vertical and good straight line speed. Despite less-than-stellar collegiate production, he still went in the first round. He did not contribute much this year, but his athletic testing was presumably the reason he went in rd. 1. This year, similar prospects could emerge. Here are my pre-combine, positional NBA Draft rankings:
*Big Board Rankings in Parenthesis
Point Guard:
1. Trey Burke/Michigan (4)- Burke was the best player in college basketball, as evidenced by his national awards. At the next level he shows a fantastic ability to get into the lane, an improving outside jump shot, and good distribution skills. Athletically he should test as very quick. The biggest weakness is Burke's size, though his other attributes will overshadow this significantly. I think Burke is a lock to go in the top 5, and could go #1 overall if Orlando picks first.
2. CJ McCollum/Lehigh (5)- Coming off of a broken foot, McCollum is reportedly available to participate in the combine. More of a combo guard, McCollum will test with the other point guards to prove he can hold his own. He was a dynamic scorer at Lehigh, and was a good rebounder for a guard, but his assist totals were not ideal. Just like Damian Lillard last year, he had more of a responsibility to score, which could have hurt his assist totals. I am not saying he is a Lillard-esque prospect- he is not- but he grades as a very solid starter if he can prove he can play the 1.
3. Dennis Schroeder/Germany (13)- Schroeder had his coming out party at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he showed an ability to score efficiently from the inside and outside, and distribute to his teammates in a position to score. He has Rondo-like measurements, and reminds me of Darren Collison due to his quick first step and ability to defend the point. He projects as a starter at the next level as his ceiling, and has passed Michael Carter-Williams on my board.
4. Michael Carter-Williams/Syracuse (14)- I still think MCW is a lottery talent, and he has the same grade as Schroeder (71) despite being one slot lower. He is a bit of an enigma to me. He put up gaudy non-conference assist totals, but struggled mightily with his shot and assist rate in Big East play. He has an NBA body, and is a terrific defender (when he wants to be), but has to improve his motor and decision making skills. 14 should be as low as he falls on my board, and with a good combine, could again rise up to the top 10.
5. Nemanja Nedovic/Serbia (26)- *Nedovic is not attending the combine. Nedovic is one of my favorite prospects in the draft due to his athleticism (41 inch vertical) and style of play. He is a great slasher and good outside shooter, and a solid defender on the ball. The biggest knock on Nedovic is that he is not a pure PG, rather a combo guard. If he can prove he can be a point guard, he could be Goran Dragic. I love Nedovic as a prospect, and would take him between 20-30 on draft day. More realistically, he goes in the beginning of rd. 2 (Crossing my fingers for Portland).
6. Shane Larkin/Miami (27)- I was surprised Larkin declared, as he could have risen higher with another good season at Miami. Larkin has deep range on his jump shot, and uses his small frame and quickness to get past defenders into the lane. He is a good ball handler and passer, but tends to struggle some when he gets into the lane, where taller defenders roam. His decision making has to improve, but he offers lots of potential as a backup PG, and scorer off the bench.
7. Erick Green/Virginia Tech (29)- Green is a prospect who is, again, a combo guard and not a pure PG. He looks to score first, as evidenced by his NCAA leading 25 points per game. He is a good rebounder and passer (when he wants to be). He reminds me of what we thought Toney Douglas would become. His ceiling is most likely as a 6th man, but his versatility lends well to his draft stock. I am intrigued to see how he tests athletically.
8. Isaiah Canaan/Murray State (33)- Canaan has been the face of the Murray State squad for the past few seasons. He led the team to a 2nd round NCAA tournament game last year, upsetting Vanderbilt. Canaan has to prove he can be a valuable distributor, as he had a huge scoring role the past few seasons. He is only an average athlete, and will struggle defending at the next level. Testing well athletically would help his stock, and go nicely with his deep range and scoring ability.
9. Pierre Jackson/Baylor (34)- Jackson is little. UW's Isaiah Thomas little. That didn't stop him from putting up great numbers at Baylor though. Last season he averaged nearly 20 points and over 7 assists per game. He had lots of talent around him at Baylor, but the team did not perform well down the stretch. A volume shooter, he needs to get into a rhythm to score efficiently. That said, he can help a playoff contender at the end of rd. 1 increase their depth. A good combine could boost him to rd. 1 territory.
10. Lorenzo Brown/NC State (40)- Brown is the opposite of Jackson. He has great vision and an NBA frame at 6'4". His biggest downfall is his lack of outside jump shot. He is, in a way, a poor man's Kendall Marshall, who struggled in Phoenix this year. If he can become a better shooter, and test better than expected athletically, he could rise back up the board to late rd. 1, where he was thought to go before the season.
Next 3: Myck Kabongo (41), Ray McCallum (48), Nate Wolters (52)
Shooting Guard:
1. Ben McLemore/Kansas (2)- McLemore has the potential to be the best shooter in this draft class. Like Burke, there are many teams who might take McLemore #1 should they win the draft lottery (Phoenix, Detroit). Blessed physically, he is a good defender (could get better) and scores in lots of ways. McLemore just has to develop the mentality that he can take over a game. If he does, he could be an All-Star. If not he is a better version of Brandon Rush.
2. Victor Oladipo/Indiana (8)- Shumpert shows a lot of potential as a defender. Think Iman Shumpert. He is an improving outside shooter, and has superb athleticism- as showcased by his highlight dunks. Oladipo won't be a star, but teams will line up for him on draft day. 3 and D players are always nice. He has to become a better ball handler and passer, as his turnover rate cannot be as high as it was in college. He is currently ranked #8 on my board, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him go in the top 5.
3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Georgia (16)- Pope has been a fast riser on this board. He led a bad Georgia team in scoring and rebounding, and shot an impressive 37% from 3 point range. He will test very well athletically, highlighting his defensive potential. He was a bit of a volume shooter at Georgia, and is not a very good ball-handler/passer for a guard. Look for him to try to improve this viewpoint at the combine.
4. Archie Goodwin/Kentucky (21)- Goodwin was rated in my preseason top 10, and had a disappointing season, especially after the injury to Nerlens Noel. He is a good ball handler, but a poor outside shooter. He gets to the rim well, but tends to make bad decisions. His upside is higher than others who could go in the late first round, but he is a higher risk player as well. A good combine might alleviate concerns about the risks associated with Goodwin.
5. Allan Crabbe/California (22)- Crabbe is a fantastic outside shooter. For Cal this past season, he averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds, but only shot 35% from 3 point range (career low). I expect Crabbe to bounce back to the 40% levels he was previously shooting as he won't ever be the focal point for opposing defenses. His ceiling would be a Klay Thompson-esque role. If he doesn't ever become more than a spot shooter though, he is Anthony Morrow. A good showing at the combine could make him a first round lock.
6. Jamaal Franklin/San Diego State (28)- Franklin is a fantastic athlete- the combine results will assure us of this. He is a fantastic rebounder for a guard (9.5 per game!). He has good assist totals, and is good in transition, but in a half court game his value dramatically decreases. He is a poor outside shooter with bad mechanics. To stick in the league he has to improve, and improve his defense. He is solid now, but has to be better than good to stick in a rotation.
7. Brandon Paul/Illinois (37)- Paul is a scorer. Late in games, Paul had the ball in his hands. He is primarily a jump shooter, with good range on his 3 point shot. He needs to improve his shot selection and his defense, where his motor tends to struggle. When his offense struggles, his defense tends to struggle as well. If he tests well athletically, look for Paul to find a spot in someone's rotation.
8. Alex Abrines/Spain (42)- Abrines is only 19, but has received minutes for a Barcelona squad that advanced to the Eurocup final. His numbers are underwhelming, but the fact that he has played against men, compared to college/high school students, for the past year could lend well to a quick transition. He is a few years away, and not at the combine, but he could wind up being a great pick for a team in 3 years. Paging San Antonio?
9. Glen Rice Jr/Rio Grande Vipers (43)- Rice is a very good basketball player. He is a great shooter (no shock) and a fantastic athlete. He is a plus defender as well, and led his team to the D-League Championship. He has legitimate 6th man potential. What is holding him back from being higher on this list? He was kicked off of his college team at Georgia Tech for multiple violations, and does not have the best basketball IQ. He has all of the attributes, but could be a liability due to his decision making on and off the court.
10. Ricardo Ledo/Providence (44)- Ledo was a dynamic scorer in high school, and was a top recruit for Providence. His poor grades would not qualify him to compete at Providence however. He has an NBA frame, and is a good scorer, but his lack of gameplay over the past year will hurt him. Since he entered the draft anyways, he would have been better off playing in the D-League last year. Will his poor mental toughness hold him back? Look for him to shoot often at the combine, and if he shoots well, late first is not out of the question.
Next 3: Vander Blue (45), Tim Hardaway Jr. (46), BJ Young (49)
Small Forwards:
1. Otto Porter/Georgetown (3)- Porter is incredibly versatile. He can get his own shot, defend multiple positions, and has a great motor. He does not have any elite characteristics, but the same was said of other players who had great NBA seasons, like Brandon Roy. Porter could be an excellent #2 or 3 starter for a team. He should test well athletically. He could be a Ron Artest type player without all the drama.
2. Shabazz Muhammad/UCLA (7)- Muhammad is versatile as well. He is a solid spot-up shooter, terrific offensive rebounder, and scores well via post up situations. He is a good ball handler, but an atrocious passer. He is very selfish offensively, but with better teammates in the NBA that might improve. Muhammad is good in passing lanes, and has an NBA body (albeit a few inches shorter than most SFs), but off-court issues will haunt him. After a scandal where he was found to be a year older than advertised, character concerns persist. He could fall out of the lottery, but he has good talent and athleticism to perform at a starter level in the NBA. He needs a great combine.
3. Dario Saric/Croatia (11)- Saric is a 6'10" point forward who excels on the offensive end. He is a capable outside shooter (could get better), a good rebounder, and a great passer and ball handler. His court vision is tops in the draft. Defensively, he needs to add strength, but he is a good shot blocker and moves laterally well. He looks like a Hedo Turkoglu/Tayshaun Prince type player. Saric has off-court concerns regarding a DUI and late night partying. He also hasn't shown the best motor on the court. He is very talented, but needs to mature to be successful in the NBA.
4. Sergey Karasev/Russia (17)- Karasev is one of the top shooters in the draft, shooting near 50% in Russia last season. He reportedly had great practices in preparation for the Nike Hoop Summit, but struggled in the game, where he had too many turnovers and forced shots. He could be a Rudy Fernandez type player in the NBA. Like Rudy when he came to the NBA, he needs to improve his defense, but his offense would help lots of teams right away.
5. Giannis Antetokoumpo/Greece (20)- Antetokoumpo does it all- shoots the ball well, handles the ball well, and defends well. He has a great wingspan, and has potential to be a terrific NBA player. The biggest issue with Giannis is that he is VERY raw. He has been playing in the 2nd tier in Greece, which has been compared to good high school level basketball. His potential is off the charts, but he is still 3-4 years away from being able to contribute. A patient team could reap benefits well though. Remember how raw Ibaka was when he was picked? Antetokoumpo will not attend the combine.
6. Reggie Bullock/North Carolina (24)- Bullock is another jack-of-all-trades player, though to a lesser extent than Porter. Bullock is a terrific outside shooter, and decent defender. He shoots more than half of his shots from 3 point range, which makes him somewhat limited at the next level. When he goes inside, he shows some promise. Of concern is that Roy Williams supposedly advised Bullock not to enter. I think he winds up as a late first round pick, and could carve out a Jared Dudley like role.
7. Livio Jean-Charles/France (32)- Jean-Charles is a combo forward along the same lines as Dante Cunningham. His Euroleague numbers are underwhelming, but he exploded onto the scene at the Nike Hoop Summit, where his double-double led him to win the MVP for the night. He shows a confident mid-range game and a solid touch to score inside. As a complimentary player early in round 2, he could be a fantastic pick. He is only 19 as well. Jean-Charles will not be attending the combine.
8. Andre Roberson/Colorado (39)- Roberson might have been the best rebounder in college basketball last year, and could be the best rebounder in the draft. Can that alone get him drafted in rd. 1? He is an inconsistent shooter, and while he is athletic, he does not always use it to exploit his opponents. As a defender, he should have some success, though he will struggle guarding 4's if he cannot prove to be a 3 in the league. He needs to show he has a perimeter game at the combine.
9. DeShaun Thomas/Ohio State (47)- Thomas is a great scorer, and will most likely be used in a stretch 4 role at the next level. He has deep range on his 3 point shot, and is not afraid to shoot, but his shot selection is troublesome at times. His defense is average at best, as he is not a great athlete. His ability to score will get him drafted in the second round, but can he offer more?
10. Solomon Hill/Arizona (56)- Hill is a polished senior who may not have much potential left. He is, however, a good shooter and defender- 2 valuable assets to offer for 10mpg off of a team's bench. He looks like a role player at best, but players like him always seem to stick in the league longer than expected. He could be a shorter Jared Jeffries.
Next 3: Tony Snell (57), Ryan Kelly (61), DJ Stephens (69)
Power Forward:
1. Nerlens Noel/Kentucky (1)- Noel has the best chance to be an All-Star in this draft. He reminds me of Ben Wallace due to his shot blocking and rebounding abilities. He scores well in limited opportunities around the hoop, and is a great alley-oop target. His offense is raw, but he is the best all-around defender in the draft. His ACL tear likely won't prevent him from being a top 3 pick, and he is the favorite to go #1 overall.
2. Anthony Bennett/UNLV (10)- Bennett looks like a Paul Millsap type player at the next level. He is a good outside shooter- not to 3 point range yet- a terrific rebounder, and has an NBA body. He is undersized, but with a great wingspan. His motor is the biggest concern, as he does not always play hard. He is not very quick, and will have to guard bigger opponents for much of his playing time. If he can adapt his skills to playing against bigger, more athletic opponents, than he is rated too low at #10. Bennett had rotator cuff surgery and will not participate at the combine.
3. Kelly Olynyk/Gonzaga (19)- Olynk is a smooth athlete at 7'0" with good perimeter skills. In the post up, he likes to get all the way to the rim, and he hits jump shots from the high post. He could be an Andrea Bargnani type player- someone who can score, but does he help lead to wins? He is only an average defender, which is where he will find most of his issues towards getting consistent playing time.
4. Mason Plumlee/Duke (23)- Plumlee might have the best motor in the draft. He works very hard, and is a very good post defender and rebounder. Offensively, he is very raw for a senior. He has little ability to create offensively, but excels scoring in putback situations. He will find a role along the lines of Nick Collison and Tyler Hansbrough at the next level. Plumlee won't be a sexy pick in round 1, but fans of his new team will love how hard Plumlee fights.
5. Jackie Carmichael/Illinois State (30)- Carmichael is one of my favorite sleepers in the draft. Very few people have Carmichael rated in the top 30, but I think he could carve out a Taj Gibson-like role at the next level. He has an NBA body and plays physical, which lends well for him to get lots of rebounds. He scores in the mid range well, but does not have much of a post up game. His ceiling might not be too high, but he looks like a definite rotation player for 8-10 years.
6. Tony Mitchell/North Texas (36)- I expected significant development from Mitchell this year- and a potential lottery pick- but he actually regressed. His scoring, rebounding and block numbers all went down despite receiving more minutes. He has a questionable motor, and fouls often. He has to improve his jump shot to make him more appealing of a prospect. Mitchell might be the player who needs a great combine the most.
7. CJ Leslie/NC State (37)- Leslie has not improved as expected either. He is a great leaper and rebounder, but does not always play hard. He has less of a mid-range game than Mitchell. He scores well in post up situations, but also takes questionable shots that will be even more difficult at the next level. He has potential, and is worth a look early in round 2.
8. Grant Jerrett/Arizona (51)- Jerrett made a big mistake leaving Arizona after 1 year. A top 10 high school recruit, Jerrett failed to be more than an average college player last year. He has lots of potential, and can step out to midrange with good efficiency, but his body is not ready for the NBA. He rebounds well when in position, but does not have adequate strength yet. He looks like a project with good potential. He needs a great combine.
9. Richard Howell/NC State (53)- Howell is a terrific rebounder. He has virtually no offensive game outside of dump offs and offensive rebounds, but makes up for it with a constant motor and better than average defense. He is slightly undersized, but his near-elite level rebounding might be enough to get him picked in rd. 2.
10. Erik Murphy/Florida (60)- Murphy is a stretch 4 with good size. He looks like a Matt Bonner type player- which is no insult. Murphy shoots the three very well and rebounds well despite a lack of physicality. Given the trend of teams playing stretch 4s, I would be shocked if Murphy does not hear his name at some point on draft night.
Next 3: Jamelle Hagins (65), CJ Aiken (70), Trevor Mbakwe (72)
Centers:
1. Alex Len/Maryland (6)- Len has great size at 7'1" and is a surprisingly versatile center. He has shown the ability to shoot the ball well out to 18 feet, and has the most polished post-up game in the draft (though he didn't always get looks in the post). He needed more touches (had Gary Williams still been coaching, he wouldn't have been misused). As a defender, he needs to get stronger, but he shows good athleticism and rebounding skills. He could be a steal if he does not go in the top 5 picks. Len had ankle surgery and will not compete at the combine.
2. Cody Zeller/Indiana (9)- Zeller has faced more criticism than many of the other top prospects. He was hailed as a potential #1 pick in preseason, but being rated #9 seems about right. He has a less than ideal wingspan, but should test well in all of the other athletic categories. He is very skilled, and is a good ball handler and the best inside scorer in the draft. He does have weaknesses, but teams should be careful not to overlook him on draft night.
3. Rudy Gobert/France (12)- Gobert is raw, but blessed with an elite 7'9" wingspan (not a typo). He is a terrific shot blocker and rebounder, and runs the court very well, making him a weapon in transition. He has some post up game, but needs to get better. He will be a good asset in the pick and roll game, but needs to get stronger. With a scoring PF next to him, Gobert could be an excellent center to start alongside him. He is one of 2 Euros at the combine.
4. Gorgui Dieng/Louisville (15)- Dieng is ready to step in and help a team. He is a very good defender and rebounder, and helps out offensively by scoring in the midrange game and on putbacks. He is also the best passer out of the high post in the draft. Shot blocking is one of his best attributes, but he has to learn to defend without fouling. Adding some strength is needed.
5. Jeff Withey/Kansas (18)- Withey, like Dieng, could help a team right away. He is not as polished offensively, as he has no midrange game. He is a better shot blocker and rebounder than Dieng, but looks to have less upside. He shows maturity and a high basketball IQ on the court. Lots of teams need a center like Withey, and he could rise on draft day.
6. Steven Adams/Pittsburgh (25)- Adams is very raw. He is a very good rebounder and shot blocker, but fouls often and is a non-factor offensively. He has an NBA body, but is still years away. A big combine will help improve his draft stock, but he looks like a player who will need 4 years to make an impact. He will see lots of time in the D-League next year. Negatives aside, he has lots of potential, and could be a smarter JaVale McGee in 5 years.
7. Mouhammadou Jaiteh/France (31)- Jaiteh is a built 6'11 center, and is a good rebounder and shot blocker (sense a common theme?). Like Adams, he is very raw offensively. At the Nike Hoop Summit, he put up pedestrian numbers, but played good defense not seen by a box score. He looks like a draft and stash guy for the next 3 years. Jaiteh will not be participating at the draft combine.
8. Lucas Nogueira/Brazil (35)- Nogueira is tall and long, along the lines of Hasheem Thabeet, at 7'1". He is athletic and runs the court well, but is, like the last two players, very raw offensively. He has a lower basketball IQ than the previous two players on the list, and is better served continuing his development overseas for the next 2-3 years. "Bebe" will not be attending the draft combine.
9. Mike Muscala/Bucknell (50)- Muscala led a good Bucknell team to the NCAA tournament, though failed to have a profound impact on the game. He is a good shot-blocker, and, unlike the previous players, can contribute offensively from day 1. He has a good series of post-moves and a decent mid range shot. Defensively he struggles one on one, and should get stronger. His ceiling is not very high, but for a team looking for immediate help Muscala is an appealing option.
10. Zeke Marshall/Akron (63)- Marshall's best attribute is his shot blocking- he is in a class with Withey and Noel. His biggest flaws are his lack of toughness- a necessity in the NBA post- and a lack of offensive game. He shows some post up ability, but good NBA centers will defend it easily. If he develops a mid-range game he has potential to stick in the league. Without improvements he is just another Jarvis Varnardo- a player fighting from 10 day contract to 10 day contract.
Next 3: Norvel Pelle (66), Marko Todorovic (67), Aziz N'Diaye (77)
Which players will emerge out of the combine and send their stock to unprecedented levels? Time will tell. The three players I expect to have the biggest combine are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroeder and Steven Adams.
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