Tuesday, May 28, 2013

State of the Magic

Over the course of the next few weeks I will attempt to write previews of what each team's offseason could potentially look like.  Up today is the Magic, who finished the season with the worst record in the NBA last year.

Current Depth Chart:
1 Nelson
2 Afflalo/Richardson/Lamb/Moore
3 Harris/Harkless/Turkoglu
4 Nicholson/Davis/Harrison
5 Vucevic/O'Quinn

Free Agents:  Udrih, Eyenga, Jones

They have 13 players on roster thus far for next year, and are right around the salary cap.

Last season's statistical leaders:
Points: Afflalo (16.5)
Rebounds: Vucevic (11.9)
Assists: Nelson (7.5)
Steals: Nelson (1.3)
Blocks: Vucevic (1.0)

Biggest needs: PG, PF

Orlando is solid on the wing.  They have good young talent in Aaron Afflalo, Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless, and decent bench options in Doron Lamb and Etwaun Moore.  They could potentially use an ugrade by adding a 2 guard who can shoot, but it is not their biggest need.  Jameer Nelson is most likely in his last year with Orlando next year, which makes point guard a big need.  In addition, the team needs a big man who is a good defender.  Nikola Vucevic made big strides last year, and looks like the center of the future.  He is a better offensive option, however, and Andrew Nicholson might be better off as a team's #3 big man.  Adding a post option who can protect the rim is very important for the Magic.

They do not have much money to spend on free agents, but here are a few low cost options who could be worthwhile:

Beno Udrih- Why not bring him back?  He is a competent back-up point guard who is not a risky option.  He shoots the ball well from the perimeter and makes good decisions.  He is on the downward slope of his career, but would be a cheap one year option.

Anthony Morrow- Morrow is one of the best set shooters in the league.  He did not have a great season for the Hawks, which could lead to him being a solid value on a 2 year contract.

Randy Foye- Foye will make the most money in this group, but he fits a need as a scoring combo guard.  For 3 years at the mini-midlevel, Foye could sign with Orlando.

In addition, they also have the 2nd and 51st picks in the draft.  Here are the best fits for them in the draft (2 in each round)

Nerlens Noel- Noel is a great fit as a defending post option to pair with Vucevic.  They would be great compliments to each other, and would be a front line that could compete with many teams in the East.

Trey Burke- Nelson is not in the team's long term plans.  Burke has the best potential of any PG in the draft to become a franchise PG, and would fit well in Orlando's system.

Seth Curry- Want a solid outside shooting option?  Curry might be one of the best in round 2.

DJ Stephens- The freak athlete from Memphis has lots of potential as a defender at the next level.  He would not have pressure to play right away, and could be developed along the same lines as Utah has done with Jeremy Evans.

What does the future look like?   The future looks bright.  Orlando has reached their floor after losing Dwight Howard.  They are 2 years out from the playoffs, and will likely improve their record by 8-12 wins next year if they perform well enough.  If Noel lasts to #2, he should be the pick.  If not, I would select Trey Burke.  A core of Burke, Afflalo and Vucevic is not great now, but could be in 3 years.  Adding a solid top ten pick from the 2014 draft could lead the Magic back into playoff contention.

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