Implications for the NBA Draft Lottery

Tomorrow will be the NBA Draft Lottery, and we will finally find out who will be picking where in the draft.  Orlando has the best odds, 25%, to get the top overall pick, though it was been many years since the worst team has earned the top pick.  Could this be the year?

This year's lottery has different implications than the past few.  The past couple have been "player centered" lotteries, where the winner had a simple choice who to take #1.  The past 6 number one picks- Davis, Irving, Wall, Griffin, Rose and (sadly) Oden- were all essential locks to go number one, and were regarded as future multitime allstars.  In this year's draft class, there isn't such a player.  In 2006, Andrea Bargnani went number 1 overall.  That pick was partially due to team needs, rather than best player available, and, a similar story will be seen this year.

Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke and Ben McLemore could all go number one overall.  Had Alex Len not injured his ankle, he could have been included on this list too.  Other teams have varied needs should they rise in the lottery- and history says they will.  In 2007, Portland and Seattle rose from the #'s 6 and 7 spots.  Chicago had only a 1.8% chance to land Derrick Rose.  The Cavs pick to get Kyrie Irving was the pick from the Clippers that had only a 2% chance to land the top pick.  Even New Orleans was not the favorite last year.  Anything can happen.  Here are the odds, and who they would likely take #1 overall:

Orlando 25%- Noel or Burke
Charlotte 19.9%- Noel
Cleveland 15.6%- Noel
Phoenix 11.9%- McLemore
New Orleans 8.8%- Burke
Sacramento 6.3%- McLemore or Burke
Detroit 3.6%- McLemore
Washington 3.5%- McLemore or Noel
Minnesota 1.9%- Noel or McLemore
Portland 1.1%- Noel
Philadelphia 0.8%- Noel
Toronto 0.7%- Noel
Dallas 0.6%- Burke
Utah 0.5%- Burke

 *Portland loses their pick if 3 teams hop them- less than .001% chance of happening, but it needs to be stated regardless.

Would I love Portland to pick 1?  YES I WOULD!  This may not be a star heavy draft on top, but there are definite good NBA starters out there, and having the pick of the litter is always ideal.

Here is my prediction of how the draft lottery will play out (If i get this right, I will have to do a post of crazy psychic predictions):
1 Phoenix
2 New Orleans
3 Orlando

So congratulations Suns fans!  Don't celebrate at all until that final card is removed by Adam Silver.