Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Post Combine, Mid FA NFL Mock Draft

I will preface the mock with this:  Most everything will probably change.  Free agents will be added, more players could be cut, thus creating new needs.  Trades will be made both up and down, but it is far to early to project anything like that.  Finally, there will undoubtedly be a few players who mess up their draft stock before the day when they could hear their name called.  Given uncertainty, here is how the mock could project right now.

ROUND 1
1 KC- Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M- Easy choice for KC, they have to protect their new starting QB Alex Smith.  I don't think Andy Reid is a great coach, but he is a pretty good one.  Chiefs should bounce back nicely this year.
2 JAX- Dion Jordan OLB-DE/Oregon- Gus Bradley will build up his defense as fast as he can.  Jordan may not be worth the #2 pick (it could easily be Mingo or Ansah), but offers instant pass rush and potential for improvement.  Seattle will miss Bradley, and Jacksonville finally has reason for optimism.
3 OAK- Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida- Oakland desperately needs an interior presence, and Floyd's stock has been rising very fast.  Strong and mobile, he can help bring credibility to the Oakland defense.
4 PHI- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama- Heartbreak for Detroit.  After cutting Nnamdi, Chip Kelly will have to add the top corner in the class.  He will get similar results at less cost (though they are absorbing a good amount of Asomugha's)
5 DET- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan- Detroit needs most help in the secondary, and could trade down.  Fisher provides excellent value as a future LT, to protect the injury prone Matt Stafford.
6 CLE- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- Ansah is a freak athlete, and will upgrade the defensive line in Cleveland.  Jabaal Sheard was their only pass rush source last year, which isn't good enough in a division with Flacco, Roethlisberger and Dalton.
7 ARZ- Barkevious Mingo OLB-DE/LSU- Shot in the dark here.  I think Bruce Arians is smart enough to pass on Geno Smith (who should be more of a 20-32 pick).  Mingo will help pressure Wilson and Kaepernick, and has the speed to contain read-options.  They could trade back into rd. 1 to target Barkley
8 BUF- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia- Buddy Nix is not as smart.  After cutting Fitzpatrick, they will hand the reigns to Smith.  My only question:  can he really provide more value year one than Tarvaris Jackson?
9 NYJ- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia- I know there are red flags regarding his spine, but he is still the best pass rusher in the draft.  If Coples figures out the NFL, the Jets could have a potentially dominant pass rush duo.  This would be a good pick for the Jets, which is why it probably won't happen.
10 TEN- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma- After signing Andy Levitre at guard, the Titans continue to bolster their offensive line by adding a tackle.  Jake Locker needs better protection to develop fully, and Chris Johnson still has to prove he can be a dominant RB.  Johnson helps both.
11 SD- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia- This would be a shocking pick.  Rivers needs better protection, but he also has missed having a versatile slot/back to dump off passes to.  Austin could have a MONSTER year in San Diego.  It would be considered a reach on draft day, but not in weeks 14-17 of the season.
12 MIA- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington- After signing Wallace and Hartline to long deals, WR is not longer a primary concern.  The secondary is.  Trufant shows good instincts and had a great combine.  In a draft with no sure candidate to be the #2 corner taken, Trufant will emerge..
13 TB- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State- Rhodes might be a reach here, but the Bucs are desperate for help at CB.  Mark Barron has helped, but they need a guy who can matchup with WRs like Colston and Smith in their conference.
14 CAR- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah- Medical Red Flags are apparent, but Carolina will jump for joy if he falls this far.  If healthy, he would be considered as high as #2.  If he checks out medically, this is the steal of the draft.
15 NO- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri- The Saints would love for Star to fall one more spot, but would be happy with Richardson too.  He is a massive space eater, and provides a decent pass rush from the interior as well.  He can start week one for the Saints D that desperately needs an upgrade.
16 STL- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas- The Rams biggest need is safety, especially considering the receivers that have been added to their conference.  Vacarro is a physical tackler with good ball skills.  He could be a menace to opposing QBs.
17 PIT- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M- He has damaged his stock a lot, but Pittsburgh will still take him, especially after the release of James Harrison.  Moore provides a good pass rush, but has to improve his motor and fundamentals.  Under Mike Tomlin, he would land in a good spot.
18 DAL- Jonathan Cooper G/North Carolina- Cooper could go in the top ten, but falls due to positional concerns.  The best player on the board, he instantly upgrades the offensive line for Dallas, helping both Romo and Murray.
19 NYG- Chance Warmack G/Alabama- Warmack could also go top ten.  A better run blocker than cooper, he is a better fit in New York anyways, and will be instrumental in helping year 2 player David Wilson get through gaps for big gains.
20 CHI- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee- Offensive line is probably a bigger concern, though Patterson offers more value here than DJ Fluker would.  Cutler has virtually nobody to throw to outside of Marshall, and Patterson can help draw defenders away while also stretching the field.
21 CIN- Margus Hunt DE/SMU- Hunt is a physical freak, at 6'8", who has capabilities as a pass rusher and run stopper.  Next to Geno Atkins, Hunt could break out as a fantastic DE.  His great combine elevated his stock.
22 STL (WAS)- Keenan Allen WR/California- Allen would give Bradford his most reliable target, as he can line up all over the field.  The Rams lack a number 1 option at WR, and Allen could fill that Slot for years to come.
23 MIN- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame- After dealing Harvin, the Vikings have to find some playmakers for Ponder to throw to.  Not a fantastic blocker, Eifert could dominate the 8-15 yard passing game where Ponder is at his best.
24 IND- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama- Protecting Andrew Luck more is vital to the Colts' success.  He was sacked too many times, which is unacceptable for a QB who will be the best in the league in 5 years (yes, I said that).
25 MIN (SEA)- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee- Minnesota takes another pass catcher.  Hunter was once thought to be the top receiver in the draft, but that talk faded.  After a great combine, he is back in the mix for many round one teams.  Minnesota could trade back to get extra picks and still get a good WR, which is stacked for the late first- early second round this year.
26 GB- Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama- Green Bay has consistently lacked a competent running back since Aaron Rodgers took over.  Lacy is a physical runner who could help take some pressure off of Rodgers by forcing opponents to guard the run game as well.
27 HOU- Alec Ogletree LB/Georgia- Based on talent, Ogletree should be taken in the top half of round one.  Given a DUI in the last month, coupled that he did not blow anyone away at the combine, his stock could slip.  Houston needs a WR across from Johnson, but Ogletree is too good to pass up here.
28 DEN- Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB/Connecticut- Denver needs a replacement for Champ Bailey, and Wreh-Wilson could be the guy.  CBs always rise on draft day, and he could easily land in round one.  A very good athlete, he has cover skills to earn time immediately.
29 NE- DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson- Amidst rumors that Welker could leave, Brady will need competent targets to throw to on the outside and in the slot.  Hopkins is incredibly versatile, and can be lined up all over the field.  The thought of Hopkins with Tom Brady is scary.
30 ATL- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina- Atlanta lost some pass rush on the exterior, and can bolster their D-Line with a good interior pass rusher.  Atlanta has been solid in drafts by taking the best players available, and Williams fits the bill here.
31 SF- Matt Elam S/Florida- Amidst concerns that Dashon Goldson will sign elsewhere, the Niners could draft a replacement.  Elam is the 2nd best safety in the draft, and could start week one for an already dominant defense.
32 BAL- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame- Baltimore desperately needs a safety, as Ed Reed's status is up in the air, and Bernard Pollard was cut.  T'eo however provides a ton of value, and can replace the now retired Ray Lewis.  T'eo has his flaws, but, based on talent, he should not fall out of round 1.

ROUND 2
33 JAX- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State
34 SF (KC)- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
35 PHI- Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
36 DET- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State
37 CIN- Monte Ball RB/Wisconsin
38 ARZ- Matt Barkley QB/USC
39 NYJ- Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse
40 TEN- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
41 BUF- Robert Woods WR/USC
42 MIA- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford
43 TB- Jonathan Jenkins DT/Georgia
44 CAR- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor
45 SD- Terron Armstead OT/Ark. Pine Bluff
46 STL- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
47 DAL- Bennie Logan DT/LSU
48 PIT- Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida International
49 NYG- Datone Jones DE/UCLA
50 CHI- Kevin Minter ILB/LSU
51 WAS- Arthur Brown ILB/Kansas State
52 MIN- Alex Okafor DE/Texas
53 CIN- Dallas Thomas OG/Tennessee
54 MIA- Tank Carradine DE/Florida State
55 GB- Kyle Long G-T/Oregon
56 SEA- Jesse Williams DT/Alabama
57 HOU- Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech
58 DEN- Corey Lemonier DE/Auburn
59 NE- Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State
60 ATL- Sio Moore OLB/Connecticut
61 SF- Justin Pugh G-T/Syracuse
62 BAL- Eric Reid S/LSU

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