Current S Curve for NCAA Tournament

Conference tournaments are underway (some have finished already) and others will soon start.  Some bids will most likely be stolen and reduce the bids available for bubble teams, for example, if Memphis loses, C-USA will get 2 bids, thus reducing at large bids by 1 for bubble teams, as Memphis will make it regardless.  In major conferences, these upsets are possible as well.  With no truly dominant team in any conference, this could be the year an unlikely team wins a conference tournament.  Here is how the S-Curve looks, in my opinion:

LOCKS:

1.  Indiana
2.  Duke
3.  Gonzaga
4.  Louisville
5.  Kansas
6.  Georgetown
7.  Florida
8.  Ohio State
9.  Michigan
10.  Miami
11.  Michigan State
12.  Oklahoma State
13.  New Mexico
14.  Syracuse
15.  Arizona
16.  Kansas State
17.  Marquette
18.  St. Louis
19.  UCLA
20.  Pittsburgh
21.  UNLV
22.  VCU
23.  Wisconsin
24.  Creighton
25.  Oregon
26.  Butler
27.  San Diego State
28.  Missouri
29.  Notre Dame
30.  California
31.  North Carolina
32.  Memphis
33.  NC State
34.  St Mary's
35.  Colorado
36.  Temple
37.  Cincinnati
38.  Colorado State
39.  Minnesota
    BUBBLE:
40.  Illinois
41.  Kentucky
42.  Villanova
43.  Iowa State
44.  Wichita State
    LAST 4 IN:
45.  Tennessee
46.  Oklahoma
47.  Boise State
48.  Virginia
    Projected Conference Winners:
49.  Belmont 
50.  Akron
51.  Bucknell
52.  Denver
53.  Davidson
54.  Ohio
55.  Iona
56.  Harvard
57.  Weber State
58.  James Madison
59.  Long Beach State
60.  South Dakota State
61.  Stephen F. Austin
62.  Western Kentucky
63.  NW State
64.  Norfolk State
65.  Vermont
66.  Southern
67.  LIU Brooklyn
68.  Liberty

Next Ten OUT:
LaSalle
Baylor
Iowa
Alabama
Arizona State
Southern Miss
Ole Miss
Middle Tennessee
Washington
Providence