NBA Standings and Awards Preview

Preseason is in full swing.  Games have have taken place overseas, and against European teams in the States.  In my opinion, this is what preseason is all about.  NBA teams get a chance to play each other a minimum of 2 times, and up to 4 times every year.  Why not play a dominant European team in preseason?  It gives both teams just a little more to play for.  Secondly, it gives a scouting advantage to play against teams with draftable prospects.  In the last few weeks, games against CSKA Moscow and Maccabi Tel Aviv have taken place.  On both those rosters are young players with pro potential, and players teams want to see.  I want to see NBA squads face a squad with a dominant European prospect- such as FC Barcelona with Mario Hezonja- just to see how he responds.

The D-League will take another step forward this year.  The Pistons have become the next team to have a single affiliate in the Developmental League.  One of Adam Silver's first steps as NBA Commissioner needs to involve the D-League's expansion- every team should have to have a single affiliate.  That means 30 D-League teams.  In an ideal system, NBA franchises could still assign players to the D-League, but also retain the players on their D-League team with a modest salary- say between 50k and 100k per year.  For example, the Blazers will likely keep Richard Howell, Dee Bost and EJ Singler on their Idaho Stampede roster, but would love to play them a salary to keep their rights.  The system does become less player friendly, but that is what it will take to embrace the D-League as more of a minor league to the NBA.

A secondary owner solely for the D-League affiliate may be necessary, but it important that a partnership is reached between every NBA team and every D-League team.  There are absolutely 15 more smaller scale cities (at minimum) that would deserve a team.  A few possibilities could include Vancouver, Canada; Richmond, VA;  St. Louis, MO; and yes, Seattle, Washington.  Why not?  It could be the start of proving a successful franchise could exist there.

Here is my preview of the NBA in general, with a special Blazers preview still to come!

Eastern Conference Standings (record):
1 Miami (59-23)
2 Indiana (53-29)
3 Chicago (51- 31)
4 Brooklyn (49-33)
5 New York (46-36)
6 Detroit (43-39)
7 Cleveland (41-41)
8 Washington (40-42)
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9 Atlanta (38-44)
10 Toronto (37-45)
11 Milwaukee (37-45)
12 Orlando (31-51)
13 Boston (30-52)
14 Charlotte (28-54)
15 Philadelphia (23-59)

Analysis: This is still Miami's conference.  LeBron James is the best player in the NBA, and he has supporting pieces around him that gel together nicely.  Dwyane Wade is beginning his decline as an NBA player this year- he won't score 20 a game.  That said, he is still a top 30 player in the league, and should average between 17-18 points per game.  Given other core players like Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Shane Battier and others, Miami has competent pieces who can play lots of minutes.

Indiana follows Miami as the biggest threat to beat the Heat.  Paul George has emerged as a max-contract player, and was rewarded accordingly.  He will be an All-Star again this year, and score above 20 per game.  Roy Hibbert, David West and George Hill all return as starters, and Lance Stephenson likely starts as well, having performed above his talent level in the playoffs.  They have a very deep bench with new acquisitions Chris Copeland, CJ Watson and Luis Scola to go with Ian Mahinmi, and potential super sixth man Danny Granger (I am skeptical George and Granger can play together for long minutes at a time).

Chicago's season depends on the health of Derrick Rose's knee, and fans should be optimistic.  Jimmy Butler has emerged as a long term wing option, and could prompt a mid-season trade of Luol Deng- who's contract will expire and likely not brought back.  Brooklyn made a huge trade landing Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry in an effort to pay the largest luxury tax ever imagined.  Jokes aside, Brooklyn will be good, but I am not sure how the roster fits together.  Deron Williams will benefit most, but does Paul Pierce really fit?  I think the Nets struggle out of the gates, and rebound to a 4th place finish.

Ah, the New York Knicks.  This will be a Carmelo Anthony dominated team, for better or worse.  He will score in bunches, but won't necessarily make the best decisions.  Likewise could be said for JR Smith.  Iman Shumpert is the team's second best player, and best defender.  This could be a breakout year for Shumpert if the other player's will pass him the ball.  The Knicks will not be among the leaders in assists.  Raymond Felton is an enigma- he seemed to have bounced back last year in New York, but his career has fluctuated between good and poor performances.  I think Felton regresses, and Pablo Prigioni winds up playing crunch time minutes when the games truly matter.

I predict Detroit, Cleveland and Washington to join the playoff crowd.  Detroit is most intriguing, with a front line of Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  Not many teams can match up with that front line.  Brandon Jennings is in a better situation, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should back up Chauncey Billups as the sixth man.  There is a lot to like about this Detroit team, assuming expectations are reasonable.  Cleveland, led by Kyrie Irving, finally takes the next step.  He has competent players around him in Varejao and Thompson, and the addition of Anthony Bennett will help the team, though I really question the pick at number one still.  I liked Cleveland's signing of Earl Clark as a player who could end up starting at the 3.  Washington has a roster built for the 8th seed.  John Wall is very talented, and he finally has good shooters around him in Brad Beal and the recently overpaid Martell Webster.  Emeka Okafor, and Nene, when healthy, will plug the middle.

Out of the playoffs, Boston needs to trade Rondo.  The team is fully rebuilding, and should use Rajon to get promising young players, and rid themselves of Gerald Wallace's contract.  Tanking sucks in sports, but that is exactly what Boston should do given the talent in the 2014 Draft class.  Unfortunately, tank-a-palooza will be worse this season than any other (see Philadelphia).  Atlanta, Milwaukee and Toronto need to consider making big moves as well- either to elevate them to the next tier or to get worse in hopes of hitting it big with the lottery.

Western Conference Standings (record):
1 LA Clippers- (56-26)
2 Oklahoma City- (55-27)
3 Golden State- (52-30)
4 Houston- (51-31)
5 San Antonio- (50-32)
6 Portland- (46-36)
7 Minnesota- (44-38)
8 Memphis- (42-40)
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9 New Orleans- (40-42)
10 Denver- (37-45)
11 LA Lakers- (35-47)
12 Phoenix- (31-51)
13 Utah- (30-52)
14 Dallas- (29-53)
15 Sacramento- (28-54)

Analysis:  The LA Clippers sit at the top, though the margin is close.  Doc Rivers can put this team in a position Vinny Del Negro never could- deep in the playoffs, potentially in the Finals.  Chris Paul will flourish in similar ways as Rondo has, while also showing an ability to score that has been his calling card in the NBA.  He should be the All-NBA first team PG.  Like in Boston, Rivers has shooters in Jared Dudley and JJ Redick- both of which should shoot north of 40%- and athletic big men in Griffin and Jordan.  This won't be an incredibly deep team, but a very talented one that will win the West.

Oklahoma City's projection may be on the high end, but I think Reggie Jackson can be an adequate replacement while Russell Westbrook sits out in recovery.  Durant might be the best combination shooter/scorer in the league, and will most likely average over 30 per game while Westbrook is out.  Ibaka is still improving as a post man, and they have lots of young pieces to like in Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones and Andre Roberson.  The team might start slow, but will wind up one of the hottest teams come playoff time.

Golden State and Houston both made big moves to improve their teams.  Golden State cleared their expiring deals- giving up first round picks to do so- to sign Andre Iguodala as a defensive stopper and slasher; those roles had not been filled by anyone on the roster.  Stephen Curry will explode as an MVP candidate this year, but be overlooked by James and Durant.  Houston signed Dwight Howard in the most melodramatic fashion since "The Decision."  Howard fits well as a partner to James Harden, and should revert back to his similar days in Orlando.  Let us be serious though- this is Harden's team.  Both teams are well positioned to exceed expectations. 

I predict San Antonio 5th.  It finally seems like age caught up with Manu Ginobili.  Tim Duncan is one of the oldest in the league, and Parker is now on the wrong side of 30.  Will the Spurs win the conference again?  It is possible.  I think age starts to show its effects on this team, and the Spurs wind up a middle of the road contender.

In the 6 and 7 spots I have up and coming teams Portland and Minnesota.  Both have terrific young point guards and the two best power forwards in the game.  Portland has the edge looking at depth and wing play, but Minnesota has a true starting center option in Pekovic.  This is a coin flip for who finishes higher in the division, and I gave the edge to Portland because I think Lillard has a bigger effect on the league than Rubio this year.

Memphis is an enigma to me.  They sure can defend.  Marc Gasol is a beast- and the best center in the game.  But is it still important to have a quality center?  Teams are defying the need for a go to 5 man, and Marc Gasol offensively cannot push a team into the top 4 in the West by himself.  Conley is a terrific game managing point guard, and Z-Bo is an efficient scorer and rebounder, but is super unathletic.  Ed Davis could breakout, but is stuck behind Randolph.  Same goes for Pondexter behind the foolishly resigned (at least for the value he got) Tony Allen.  If Memphis embraces these changes, and finds some outside shooting (enter Pondexter again) than this team could exceed my expectations.  For now, let them be tempered some.

New Orleans is another rising team that is one year away.  Anthony Davis is poised for a big year.  The team acquired All-Star PG Jrue Holiday, and enigma Tyreke Evans, and has the best shooting big man in the game in Ryan Anderson.  My biggest concern revolves around the team's big men.  Davis is still in need of adding strength, and Ryan Anderson should not be relied on for defense.  This team will score a lot, but struggle defensively, and it will cost them in getting to the playoffs.  A true center in the draft like Willie Cauley Stein could be a good developmental pick next to Davis.

Denver and the Lakers had catastrophic offseasons.  Denver lost George Karl and their GM, Uruji.  They lost their best player in Andre Iguodala.  Brian Shaw was a terrific hire, and will do big things, but not this year.  Denver is reliant on youth this year, and I am not sure the likes of JaVale McGee and Kenneth Faried can cope defensively.  This team has a promising future, but is a year away at this point.  The Lakers lost Howard.  They still have D'Antoni.  They have a recovering Kobe Bryant.  Like the previous two teams, is this team going to stop anyone?  A frontcourt of Gasol and Kaman is underwhelming, and a backcourt of Nash, Kobe and Wes Johnson/Nick Young/.....  Offensively this team has some polish, and a few chuckers.  There will be nights of magic and nights the game is over early.  Laker nation- this is not your year.  Following LA are 4 teams not poised for success, and well positioned to pick high in the draft. 

Awards Picks:
MVP- LeBron James
Defensive POY- Serge Ibaka
Rookie- Otto Porter Jr.
Most Improved-  Reggie Jackson
Sixth Man- Jamal Crawford
Coach- Doc Rivers

First Team All-NBA:
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Marc Gasol

Second Team:
Deron Williams
James Harden
Paul George
Kevin Love
Dwight Howard

Third Team:
Tony Parker
Kyrie Irving
Carmelo Anthony
LaMarcus Aldridge
Roy Hibbert

Honorable Mention:  Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe

NBA Finals:  Clippers over Heat in 7 games