Like it or not, this is Damian Lillard's team. Aldridge will lead the team in scoring, but this team's success this year depends on Lillard's ability to maintain the same level of offense as last year while showing improvement on the defensive end. #NBArank placed both Lillard and LA in the top 30 players, but forcing to choose between the two is an easy choice. The state of Aldridge's knee is worrisome- especially given Portland's shaky past with knee injuries.
Damian Lillard has the potential to be a 20 point scorer. I would predict a slightly more modest total- around 18 a game- to go with just over 7 assists. LA will score almost 20 points to go with 8 rebounds. His rebounding total will not be as high as last year because he shouldn't be playing 38 minutes a night. Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez look like good pieces next to LA. Robinson is already what JJ Hickson was last year, and he is only in his second year. Count that trade as a win. Lopez is starting to play better with each preseason game, but I want to reserve most of my judgement for the regular season.
The depth chart should look as follows, when dealing with a healthy team:
1 Lillard/Williams/Watson
2 Matthews/McCollum/Barton/Crabbe
3 Batum/Wright/Claver
4 Aldridge/Robinson/Freeland
5 Lopez/Leonard
Positives:
• The Blazers finally have 2 true center options
• The bench is not one of the worst of all time (last year's bench had a WARP of -9.9- yikes!)
• Lillard is a top 10 PG, with the likes of Paul, Williams, Rose, Westbrook, Rondo, Curry, Irving, Parker and Wall.
• Aldridge is a top 2 power forward in the league. Only Kevin Love can compete for that honor with him.
• Matthews and Batum provide terrific outside shooting to pair with Lillard and LA, and above average defense as a tandem. Williams, Wright and McCollum will all make their share of threes.
Questions:
• Does Batum take the next step? He is maddeningly inconsistent, and seems to have too many nagging injuries to play through. At the start of last season, Batum was playing unbelievable basketball before leveling off towards the end of the year. He needs to become an actual defensive stopper, and score 16-17 points a game. Given the salary he will be paid, in year 6 it is Batum's time.
• Outside of Batum, is this team good enough defensively? Aldridge is an underrated defender, and he pairs with a true 7 footer in Lopez who isn't afraid of contact. Lillard and Batum were not as good last year as they should have been. Matthews is a near elite defender. If this team makes the playoffs, they will give up less than 100 points per game.
• Can this team score efficiently? This category will be much improved over last year, though a bulk of the responsibility falls on LA, Lillard, and yes, Batum, to create for both theirselves and teammates. Look for Portland to be among the leading teams in eFG%.
5 bold predictions:
• The Blazers finish second in the Northwest division, ahead of Minnesota, Denver and Utah.
• Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge make the All-Star game this year.
• Thomas Robinson leads the league in rebounds off the bench.
• Portland, as a team, averages 8 steals a game.
• Matthews, Lillard and Batum all make over 200 3's.
I predict the Blazers to go 46-36, and finish 6th in the Western Conference. Defense is the key, and holding opponents to less than 100 points per game is paramount. Missing the playoffs likely means a trip back to the lottery (or losing our pick if we would pick 13th or 14th), trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and potentially shopping Wesley Matthews. This team is built to win, and should have high expectations accordingly.
Follow me on twitter @ZRey12
Stay tuned for an updated Big Board for the 2014 draft, and an updated mock draft too, based on my predicted standings!
No comments:
Post a Comment