Beginning with analysis of conference play:
American Conference:
Big East placed aside, the American conference will be one to watch this season. Louisville is in a position to dominate the conference, and give a good run to defending the national championship they recently won. Russ Smith will get his chance as the lead guard (Yes, Jones will play a major role too) and Montrezl Harrell could emerge as one of the best forwards in the country. I like Louisville's odds to win this conference.
Cincinnati and Memphis likely fall in the 2-3 spots, with me giving the slight edge to Cincinnati. The Bearcats return a top-tier shooter in Sean Kilpatrick- a player who should average north of 20 points per game this year. As in the past, Cincinnati may not be the prettiest of teams to watch, but they will continue to get results. Memphis has a team that could win the conference, based on their talent level. Joe Jackson, Shaq Goodwin and Missouri transfer Michael Dixon all are poised for leading roles under Josh Pastner's watch, but the big question surrounds their ability to put the "whole product" together, and play efficiently. This is a tournament team who likely ends up around the 6-9 seed line.
Finally, UConn brings back Napier and Boatwright, to name a few, but is it enough to get into the tournament? Non-conference wins against Florida, Stanford and Washington would go a long ways towards increasing the appeal of UConn's resume. South Florida and Temple both bring back intriguing players, namely Victor Rudd for South Florida. Can Larry Brown lead an underwhelming SMU squad to the tournament? Not this year, but a solid recruiting class for next year could put SMU into the mix.
Conference standings prediction:
1 Louisville
2 Cincinnati
3 Memphis
4 South Florida
5 Connecticut
6 Temple
7 SMU
8 UCF
9 Houston
10 Rutgers
Conference Player of the Year (POY): Russ Smith/Louisville
All Conference Team:
Russ Smith/Louisville
Sean Kilpatrick/Cincinnati
Victor Rudd/South Florida
Montrezl Harrell/Louisville
Chane Behanan/Louisville
NCAA Tournament teams: Best case- 6 Worst case- 3
ACC:
The ACC has long been Duke's house. North Carolina has owned it too. For a conference that has been won by Duke or North Carolina. Only 6 times since 1982 have Duke and Carolina not had at least a share of the regular season conference championship. No more. The ACC has expanded- rather impressively- in basketball, bringing in Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Louisville (next year) to compete with the already strong conference. The ACC has all of the tools to become the power conference in college basketball.
Let me start by buying into the Duke hype around Jabari Parker. He will be the go-to guy from day one offensively for the Blue Devils- the best recruit since Kyrie Irving. Is there another player like him in the conference that can score the ball like he can? Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon and Andre Dawkins will patrol the backcourt, and Marshall Plumlee will step up in the front court. Add in Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood, and we are looking at a Duke team poised to make a deep national run- and it all starts with the prodigy from Chicago, Jabari Parker.
North Carolina has pieces to make fans excited, but they could lead to disappointment just as easily. Strictly from a basketball perspective, PJ Hairston is the most talented on the roster. He is a terrific outside shooter, and a decent rebounder and defender for his position. He has had off court issues this offseason- and last year- and I have to wonder whether he can remain committed for the entire season. Outside of Hairston, there are pieces to like on this team. Joel James is a raw big man who has tremendous defensive potential. JP Tokoto could be in line for a deservedly larger scoring role. Marcus Paige has some scouts thinking about Kendall Marshall again. James McAdoo was once a player regarded as a top-10 pick, but a poor sophomore campaign led to his return. A solid season could put him right back in the mix as a first round pick, whereas another average year could push him out of the top 60, at least.
Miami, last season, made an impressive run and won the conference championship. Unfortunately, the team lost nearly everyone, and may have to endure a rebuilding year. Jim Larranaga could put the team in a good position, but obstacles will be too big for the Hurricanes to overcome this year to make the tournament. Syracuse, on the other hand, could compete with Duke and UNC this year. CJ Fair returns to lead the Orange; the roster also contains promise in Jerami Grant and Rakeem Christmas. Keita could be in store for a larger role as well. Finally, freshman Tyler Ennis is the type of guard who could make a big difference, potentially handling PG duties down the stretch. If the Orange can replace the shooting that was lost with Brandon Triche and James Southerland, 'Cuse could make a run for the conference championship.
The middle of the conference could make for an intriguing race. NC State lost CJ Leslie, Lorenzo Brown and Rodney Purvis, but maintains potential first round pick TJ Warren, and former McDonald's All American Tyler Lewis. In addition, Trevor Lacey transferred from Alabama to NC State, but is ineligible to play this season due to NCAA transfer rules. Pittsburgh returns two of the two three scorers they had, and will be decent under Jamie Dixon again. Clemson has intriguing talent, namely forward KJ McDaniel. Tony Bennett could get Virginia back into the NCAA tournament, as leading scorer Joe Harris returns for his senior season. Harris could potentially lead the NCAA in scoring. Notre Dame has talent under Mike Brey as well, with Eric Atkins and Jerian Wright returning. Other players to watch in the conference are Ryan Anderson (BC) and Travis McKie (WF). Expect a very compelling ACC season.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Duke
2 Syracuse
3 Notre Dame
4 North Carolina
5 Virginia
6 Pittsburgh
7 NC State
8 Clemson
9 Boston College
10 Miami (FL)
11 Florida State
12 Georgia Tech
13 Maryland
14 Wake Forest
15 Virginia Tech
Conference Player of the Year: Jabari Parker/Duke
All Conference Team:
Rasheed Sulaimon/Duke
Joe Harris/Virginia
Jabari Parker/Duke
TJ Warren/NC State
CJ Fair/Syracuse
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best Case- 10, Worst Case- 7
Atlantic 10:
Can the A-10 handle the Havoc? VCU returns this season as the favorite, returning several key players from last year's NCAA tournament squad. Juvonte Reddic leads the way as a potential NBA draft choice, followed by scorers Treveon Graham, Rob Brandenburg and thief- meaning in the best way possible- Briante Weber. Weber has led the country in steal percentage the last few seasons, and could set records this year playing in an increased role. He may be the best defender in the country. If the Rams can play efficient basketball in their chaotic style, they could have a special season.
The rest of the conference does not stack up as well as last season: Temple, Butler and Xavier have defected to the Big East and American conferences. Remaining are St. Louis and La Salle as the top contenders in the conference play. Don't get me wrong- the A-10 will be one of the top mid-major conferences, but expectations should be less than last year in terms of getting a large number of teams in the tournament. Tyrone Garland and Tyreek Duren will be the focal points for La Salle, and Dwayne Evans returns to lead St. Louis.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 VCU
2 La Salle
3 St. Louis
4 St. Joseph's
5 Massachusetts
6 Dayton
7 Richmond
8 George Mason
9 Rhode Island
10 George Washington
11 St. Bonaventure
12 Duquesne
13 Fordham
Conference Player of the Year: Juvonte Reddic/VCU
All Conference Team:
Briante Weber/VCU
Tyreek Duren/La Salle
Chaz Williams/UMass
Dwyane Evans/St. Louis
Juvonte Reddic/VCU
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best case- 3, worst case-1
Big East:
"We have a basketball dominant conference"
Wally Szczerbiak's words are powerful- but is there any team in this conference that could win a national title this year or next? I see a lot of teams destined to be seeded between the 4 and 8 lines, but not a bevy of top-ten caliber teams.
Georgetown was the highest seeded in this group last year, but lost their best player in Otto Porter. The team does have many upperclassmen, and will be led by guards Starks and Smith-Rivera. Defensively, this group could be one of the best in the country in terms of opponent scoring rate. If they can find an inside scoring presence, Georgetown could win this league. The Hoyas have an intriguing opener against Oregon.
Marquette unfortunately lost their best player in Vander Blue, who was an early entry candidate in last year's NBA Draft, but did not get selected. Blue was a fringe round-2 candidate, and should have stayed. Blues aside (get it?), the team returns Davante Gardner- a tough to handle post man with good hands- and Jamil Wilson, a combo forward who can do a little of everything. The biggest issue for Marquette will be outside shooting. They shot under 30% as a team last year, and need to find a consistent presence behind the arc. Maybe Wilson steps into the role of a go to outside scorer.
Villanova returns their top 3 scorers, most importantly Arcidiacono. This team will shoot a lot of threes, but only shot 33% last season- a number that has to improve. The biggest loss is Yarou, who was the team's best rebounder and interior defender. Look for 6-11 sophomore Ochefu to step into the team's center position and flourish.
Perhaps the two biggest threats to the teams listed above are Xavier and Creighton. Both teams have All-American caliber players in Doug McDermott (Creighton) and Semaj Christon (Xavier). McDermott and Grant Gibbs will be forced to do too much for Creighton this year, but it will result in another NCAA tournament berth, and perhaps a Naismith award for McDermott. Xavier, on the other hand, will rely on Christon for both scoring and playmaking. He could put together a 20 point 5 assist campaign to put Xavier in contention for a top 20 rank, and give him potential consideration as a lottery pick candidate for the 2014 draft (currently sits at 20 on the Big Board).
Other players who could make a big difference in this conference are Providence's Kris Dunn- a candidate to lead the country in scoring- and St. John's Chris Obekpa- perhaps the best shot blocker in the country. Steve Lavin has loads of raw talent at St. John's, and I am curious to see if he can make all of the pieces he has assembled work together efficiently.
Finally, Butler made a big move from the A-10 (for only 1 year) to the Big East, but then lost its head coach- and program identity- to the Boston Celtics on a 6 year contract worth over $4 million per year. Butler still will run a similar system with its current players, but I have to think the team will not reach its expected peak without Stevens at the helm.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Villanova
2 Xavier
3 Georgetown
4 Creighton
5 Marquette
6 Providence
7 St. John's
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul
Conference Player of the Year: Semaj Christon/Xavier
All Conference Team:
Semaj Christon/Xavier
Ryan Arcidiacono/Villanova
Kris Dunn/Providence
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
NCAA Tournament Berths: Best case- 6, worst case- 4
Big Ten:
Michigan State returns Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Brendan Dawson and Adreian Payne- 4 of their 5 starters from last season's impressive campaign that ended up earning a 3 seed in the tournament. Harris and Payne are both likely first round picks in the upcoming draft, and Dawson and Appling are very draftable players as well. Appling, much like Siva last year, should use his experience as a starter to lead this team to greatness this year. Payne reminds me some of Blake Griffin, and may be one of the most overlooked players in the NCAA. I know I have him ranked as an early 2nd round pick thus far, but I expect him to rise to a top 25 player by midseason. I need to see improvements defensively and better effort on the glass. Finally, if Payne can show any sort of post game- similar to Derrick Nix's role last year, Sparty will be tough to stop.
Michigan, oppositely, lost two of its best players in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Both were selected in round 1. Like their rivals, Michigan has first round talent in Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary, and perhaps the best shooter in the country in Nick Stauskas. Robinson needs to develop into a more efficient shooter and scorer- he is a player who reminds me some of bigger Andre Iguodala. McGary needs to continue to be a presence down low. Cody Zeller had a large impact in the Big Ten as a post up player, and McGary could be a similar threat. The big key for Michigan's success is the point guard play of Spike Albrecht. He lit it up from the 3 point line in the NCAA final, but needs to show poise as a point guard against good defenders in the Big Ten. If he can handle the pressure, Michigan could reach the Final Four again.
What about Indiana?? They lost Cody Zeller and, more importantly, Victor Oladipo, but the Hoosiers still have a very competitive program. Yogi Ferrell needs to step into the scoring role as a point guard, as he is the best player on this year's squad. Jordan Hulls graduated; he doesn't have a great shooter in the backcourt anymore. Will Sheehy is an important player to keep an eye on as a starting 2, but he is limited as a ball handler. The X-factor will be 6-10 freshman Noah Vonleh, a player I saw at the Nike Hoop Summit. He is raw, but talented, and, he is an athlete with size who can match up with opponents like Robinson. If he can be an offensive weapon as well, he could be the top freshman in the conference.
Ohio State is intriguing as well. They return their 3 best guards in Craft, Ross and Smith, and have a solid interior presence in Amir Williams. Williams isn't a scorer, but can defend well with his strength and length. He isn't much of a scorer though, meaning the perimeter players will have to be efficient. Ross likely leads the team in scoring, and is the only true NBA prospect on this team, dependent on how you view Aaron Craft. I see LaQuinton Ross as a late first rounder at this point, but could be the best true scorer in the Big Ten this year. Ohio State could win the conference, or finish 5th or 6th. It is all dependent on their guard play, and Thad Matta likely figures it out.
There are other intriguing storylines in the conference as well. The Richard Pitino era begins at Minnesota, with the Golden Gophers returning Andre Hollins at the point. Bo Ryan's team is overlooked, likely, again. Why?? The Badgers are always among the best defensive, and least turnover prone teams in the country. Plus, Wisconsin boasts an NBA talent on the wing in Sam Dekker- a player who reminds me of Gordan Hayward. Wisconsin may not be a top team in the conference, but they deserve a top 20 preseason national ranking. Is there a bigger matchup nightmare than AJ Hammons (Purdue) in the conference? He is an athletic 7 footer who is poised to breakout this season. I currently don't have him in the top 50, but significant strides could not only thrust him into the first round picture, but also put Purdue basketball back in the national picture.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Michigan State
2 Michigan
3 Indiana
4 Wisconsin
5 Ohio State
6 Purdue
7 Minnesota
8 Illinois
9 Northwestern
10 Iowa
11 Penn State
12 Nebraska
Conference Player of the Year: Keith Appling/Michigan State
All Conference Team:
Keith Appling/Michigan State
LaQuinton Ross/Ohio State
Glenn Robinson III/Michigan
Sam Dekker/Wisconsin
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best case- 8, worst case- 5
Big 12:
The rest of the Kansas squad is good too. Another top recruit- and potential top 10 selection- is center Joel Embiid. The 7 footer is raw offensively, but has the defensive tools to be a Roy Hibbert like player in the NBA. At this point, he has high bust potential, but will likely prosper in the college game like previous centers have done in Bill Self's system- most recently Jeff Withey. Also returning for the Jayhawks is combo forward Perry Ellis, who is surprisingly athletic and versatile. Point guard play could be an issue, but the ball is likely in Wiggins' hands late in a game anyways.
Oklahoma State is the other team in the conference who could win the conference. Marcus Smart could be the best PG in the country, and has a chance to lead the Big 12 in assists. He has competent players around him in the erratic LeBryan Nash and streaky Markel Brown. When it all comes together? Oklahoma State could be one to watch closely- and not just inside the conference.
The Baylor Bears will be strong again as well. Isaiah Austin was supposed to be a national player of the year candidate last year, but did not quite live up to the hype. He is still a potential top 10 pick as an athletic 7'1" power forward who has an all around game. Austin's draft stock and season with Baylor depends largely on his mindset. Will he be a player who is tough or one who wants to avoid adversity? Cory Jefferson is the heart and soul of the team, and shooter Brady Heslip returns as well. The Bears could make a run in March.
The other teams, yes, including Texas, don't quite match-up to the top 3. The Big 12 is a top heavy conference this year. Texas' Cameron Ridley is intriguing, but he reminds me too much of Josh Smith, and likely doesn't make much of an impact. Iowa State has a great player in Niang, and one of the best young coaches in the country in Fred Hoiberg. Iowa State will win some games against top teams and lose some head scratchers. Is it enough to get them to the NCAA Tournament?
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Kansas
2 Oklahoma State
3 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 Kansas State
6 West Virginia
7 Texas
8 Oklahoma
9 Texas Tech
10 TCU
Conference Player of the Year: Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
All Conference Team:
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Wayne Selden/Kansas
Georges Niang/Iowa State
Cory Jefferson/Baylor
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best Case- 6, Worst Case- 3
Mountain West:
No, the Mountain West doesn't have a national championship contender. But could one prove me wrong? Sure- the Mountain West is a deep conference, and whoever comes out on top needs to be taken seriously. The two teams in the video who may hold the best chances to win the league: Boise State and San Diego State.
And though I say Boise and San Diego are the favorites, New Mexico, Colorado State and Utah State all have a terrific chance as well.
Starting with Boise, the Broncos return two guards who were all-second team in the conference last year. Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic both averaged north of 16 points per game with lethal 3 point strokes. The Broncos won't play out of control, but they will push the ball in transition, especially in the hands of Marks and Drmic. If these two can be the leaders the team needs, why couldn't Boise win the MWC?
Steve Fisher is the best coach in the conference. He returns to SDSU with solid returners, including Xavier Thames and underrated stretch four JJ O'Brien. Thames will likely take over the scoring demands of Jamaal Franklin, an athletic 3 man who was taken in the second round of the draft. Defensively, San Diego State will be athletic and tough to beat in transition, which makes them a matchup nightmare for many teams in the conference.
New Mexico returns the best player in the conference in 7-footer Alex Kirk. With Steve Alford having moved onto UCLA, look for the new-ish system to feature Kirk even more in the low post and in pick and pop situations. He is the favorite for conference player of the year (Spoiler alert...). Colorado State lost big man Colton Iverson, but the biggest loss are all of the other starters- a cohesive unit that led to big wins last year. I liked the depth of the team last year- though all of the new starters are unproven. Call it a shot in the dark, but I like Colorado State's chances to make at least the NIT this year. Finally, UNLV lost top overall pick Anthony Bennett after one year, and had stretch four Mike Moser transfer to Oregon. What is there to like about this UNLV squad?
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Boise State
2 New Mexico
3 San Diego State
4 Utah State
5 UNLV
6 Colorado State
7 Wyoming
8 Fresno State
9 Nevada
10 Air Force
11 San Jose State
Conference Player of the Year: Alex Kirk/New Mexico
All Conference Team:
Xavier Thames/SDSU
Derrick Marks/Boise State
Anthony Drmic/Boise State
Preston Medlin/Utah State
Alex Kirk/New Mexico
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best case- 4, worst case- 2
Pac 12:
The conference all starts with Arizona. Arizona has a lot of talent, and deserves to be a top-5 team for preseason. Aaron Gordon is the biggest recruit the team earned- a player who was the MVP at the U19 World Championships for team USA. His game is reminiscent of Blake Griffin- highlighted by huge dunks and impressive athleticism. Also a freshman, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson steps in as a Gerald Wallace type player who can do a bit of everything, and needs to work on his shot. There is no reason he can't be the best defensive player in the Pac-12 this year. Returning for the Arizona Wildcats is an impressive group as well. Guard Nick Johnson leads the way as a player who likely leads the talent-rich team in scoring. Brandon Ashley steps into a more prominent role in year two, and center Kaleb Tarczewski is a candidate to be a double-double player and first round draft pick. The team could use some more outside shooting, but that is just splitting hairs- there is A LOT to like about this year's Wildcats.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Arizona is Oregon. Under Dana Altman, the program has entered the national picture with no intent to leave. Expect the Ducks program to keep improving, with higher level of recruits entering the picture. For this year's team, guard play will be very strong. Point guards Dominic Artis and Jonathan Lloyd and shooting guard Damyean Dotson will lead the way, putting up impessive scoring and defensive numbers. UNLV transfer Mike Moser- a former All-American- joins the program after an ugly elbow injury severely affected his last year in Las Vegas. If he can return to form, he will have a Kazemi-like effect on the team. The biggest question mark surrounds the departure of Tony Woods, who graduated. Woods was the only true center on the roster, and the team will be looking for answers regarding defense of the big and athletic centers the conference boasts.
In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC made coaching changes. New Mexico's Steve Alford took the position at UCLA, and inherits a roster that is very competitive. Led by point forward Kyle Anderson and shooting guard Jordan Adams, UCLA should have no issues scoring the ball. Their biggest issue is mental: Can Alford get his players to commit? He has many top recruits from the Ben Howland era, but many have not lived up to their potential. Based solely on talent, UCLA is a tournament team. Former Florida Gulf Coast head coach Andy Enfield has a difficult task on his hands. "Dunk City" may come to USC, but he does not have the same level of players on the roster that their rivals do. Perhaps the best players on the roster are Omar Oraby and Byron Wesley. Orabi is a load at 7-2, 270 pounds, a matchup nightmare for most teams. He is improving offensively, and is athletic like a guard. He is a terrific shot blocker and should have more of an impact than DeWayne Dedmon had last year- look at Oraby to breakout. Wesley, and returner Terrell, are the two best guards on the team, and will be looked upon for scoring in bunches. USC's future is looking up with Enfield in charge, it just may not appear so in the first year's win-loss column.
Arizona State will also be talented. Jahii Carson is among the best PGs in the country- averaging 18.5 points and over 5 assists last year. He will make a run at the first round of the draft, and is a front runner for conference POY. Bachynski returns as another 7 foot center in the conference, and should be part of an intriguing pick and roll game with Carson.
The Washington Huskies will be back in the tournament this year. CJ Wilcox returns as one of the best shooters in the conference, along with solid role players in Desmond Simmons and Shawn Kemp Jr. The most underrated player in the conference may be freshman PG Nigel Williams-Gross. A terrific shooter and ball handler, expect Lorenzo Romar to hand him the keys early on.
Stanford and Cal have potential to make runs, but both look more like NIT teams. Stanford returns potential NBA Draft choice Dwight Powell as a player ready to take the step towards being a star for a team. He has the ability to take over games, at 6'10", and not many teams have athletic big men who can keep up with him. Cal returns Justin Cobbs, who averaged 15 points and nearly 5 assists last year. Look for Cobbs, and forward Richard Solomon, to take on much of the scoring demand the team had for Allan Crabbe (now of the Portland Trail Blazers).
Colorado has very intriguing pieces as well. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie is a potential first round pick and center Josh Scott is a capable interior scorer. The loss of Andre Roberson hurts, especially on the glass and the defensive end, but Dinwiddie has potential to be a special player. At 6'5", Dinwiddie will have mismatches against many PG's he goes up against. Who knows, maybe Colorado has good karma coming after the Chen-sanity didn't pan out.
Oregon State- my alma mater- is in a state of confusion. Craig Robinson is squarely on the hot seat, and my predictions likely won't be enough for him to survive. Oregon State returns forwards Devon Collier and Eric Moreland as athletic postmen who are terrific defensively and can score around the basket. The only problems are for off-court misconduct with these two (rumored to be related to failed drug tests). Collier is suspended for the season opener and Moreland is suspended for the first 14 games. Likely, Oregon State won't recover from this. Angus Brandt, a sweet shooting center from Australia, likely leads the team in scoring, and Roberto Nelson likely steps up as the highest scoring guard. There is a lot to like about the Beavers, but it will be very surprising if they perform any better than average.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Arizona
2 Oregon
3 Arizona State
4 UCLA
5 Washington
6 Colorado
7 Stanford
8 California
9 USC
10 Oregon State
11 Washington State
12 Utah
Conference Player of the Year: Jahii Carson/Arizona State
All Conference Team:
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Dominic Artis/Oregon
Nick Johnson/Arizona
Aaron Gordon/Arizona
Dwight Powell/Stanford
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best Case- 7, Worst Case- 4
SEC:
Like it or not, this is still Kentucky's conference. After an incredible recruiting class- highlighted in the video above- led by Julius Randle, James Young and the Harrison Twins, Kentucky is back in the national spotlight as a national title contender. Randle is thought of by some to be a threat to Andrew Wiggins for the #1 pick in the next draft (I have him ranked #3). This type of high praise means a large role is at stake for the freshman, and a role he should handle nicely. The Harrison twins can be selfish at times, but given the talent on the roster I think opinions will sway. Young is uber-athletic and Johnson has potential to be a great post scorer at the college game. Adding in the two promising sophomores in Cauley-Stein and Poythress and Kentucky has 7 potential first round picks. Ridiculous. Just like this team will be.
Kasey Hill, another heralded freshman, will lead the Florida Gators in their pursuit of another deep NCAA run. The Gators are bolstered by the returns of Patric Young and Will Yeguette, and have a team Billy Donovan should be able to work wonders with. I am not saying Florida is a top contender, but if Hill pans out, they sure could be.
The rest of the SEC leaves something to be desired- how good is the SEC really going to be? I see Kentucky and Florida as elite in the conference, and a fuzzy collection of average teams. LSU could be good, as Johnny O'Bryant could emerge as a go to option in the mold of Anthony Randolph. That said, can a team led by O'Bryant really make much noise? Missouri has a really intriguing scoring point guard in Jabari Brown, but all of his supporting cast either graduated or left early for the draft. Brown could lead the conference in scoring, but is that enough to get to March Madness?
At Alabama, Anthony Grant has a strong defensive unit, led by Trevor Releford. Offensively, the team will shoot lots from the outside, but in reality none of their shooters have stepped up in the past in major ways. Can this year be different? Arkansas landed a nationally ranked recruit in Bobby Portis, a 6-9 forward who can score in a variety of ways, but the rest of the roster hasn't done anything meaningful in the past. Can Arkansas be a sleeper?
Vanderbilt won 10 conference games last year, and return three of their top four leading scorers. More than many other teams in the conference return, look for Vanderbilt, led by an emerging Dai-Jon Parker. Also in the same state lies Tennessee, a team with a player of the year candidate in Jarnell Stokes. He will average a double double this year for the Volunteers. Guard Jordan McRae also returns for Tennessee, and will likely lead the team in scoring. The Vols will be a tournament team this year.
To conclude the SEC analysis, there is a lot of uncertainty. Two or three teams (depending on how you view Tennessee) will break away, and the others will toil away in 7-9 or 8-8 status. Questions will plague this conference about how good it truly is. Questions like: Can Marshall Henderson bring Ole Miss back to the NCAA Tournament? Don't hold your breath on it. Is this Kentucky class better than any ever? Possibly, this team is very good- but we thought this last year too.
Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Kentucky
2 Florida
3 Tennessee
4 Vanderbilt
5 Missouri
6 Alabama
7 LSU
8 Arkansas
9 Texas A&M
10 Ole Miss
11 Georgia
12 South Carolina
13 Mississippi
14 Auburn
Conference Player of the Year: Julius Randle/Kentucky
All Conference Team:
Kasey Hill/Florida
Andrew Harrison/Kentucky
Jabari Brown/Missouri
Julius Randle/Kentucky
Jarnell Stokes/Tennessee
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best case- 6, Worst Case- 4
Other Mid Majors:
Other teams throughout the country not in a major conference or notable mid major will have big seasons as well. They are:
Gonzaga- The obvious choice. Mark Few's Bulldogs return potential All-American Kevin Pangos as the point and Gary Bell Jr. at the two spot. Inside Karnowski could have a breakout year, and fellow big man Sam Dower is reliable. This team is as deep as it gets in the NCAAs, and Gonzaga will be a top team yet again this year.
Harvard- Is Harvard becoming east coast Gonzaga?? Not so fast, but they look like an Ivy League power here to stay. Chambers (Ivy League POY candidate) and Saunders both return for the Crimson, and Harvard is a sneaky pick to the sweet 16- you heard it here first!
Wichita State- We all saw the shockers in the Final Four. Cleanthony Hall returns to lead the team that only lost Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead amogst the major contributors. Do I expect another deep NCAA Tournament run? Absolutely not. But the team will win the MVC, and be seeded between a 7-10 again.
Iona- Iona plays an up and down style that involves launching threes and high scoring games. Guard Sean Armand returns and Rutgers transfer Mike Poole could lead the team in scoring at over 20 per game. Iona will make the tourney, and likely crush someone's dream in round one.
LA Lafayette- Every year, an under the radar team with a star point guard takes a team farther than expected. Meet Elfrid Payton- the Ragin' Cajuns star PG who averaged 15-5-5 last year. Watch for Payton to be in the NPOY picture if he can lead LA Lafayette to the tournament- a very daunting task for a team that would not be in this post had it not been for Payton.
NATIONAL PICTURE:
Top 25:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Arizona
5 Michigan
6 Duke
7 Gonzaga
8 Oklahoma State
9 Kentucky
10 Florida
11 Oregon
12 Indiana
13 Wisconsin
14 Baylor
15 VCU
16 Syracuse
17 Villanova
18 Xavier
19 Creighton
20 Notre Dame
21 North Carolina
22 Arizona State
23 Harvard
24 Georgetown
25 UCLA
National Player of the Year: Russ Smith/Louisville
All American Team:
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Russ Smith/Louisville
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Jabari Parker/Duke
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Final Four Prediction:
Louisville
Michigan State
Arizona
Kansas
Rationale: Would I have them rated as the top 4 teams if I didn't think they would end up that way?
National Champion: Michigan State
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