Ranking the Quarterbacks

Last December, I rated the top 10 quarterbacks in the league as the playoffs approached.  Have any of the rankings changed?  Some quarterbacks excelled towards the end of last year, new starters have emerged- including rookies- and others have faltered causing fans of the team to worry greatly (cough... cough...  NY Jets).  Here we go, in reverse order, starting with notable omissions, and then, number 40.

Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne- Jaguars.  The Jags could not get one QB on the top 40 list- a list that guarantees that 8 backups will, at least, be on the list.  Count this team as the frontrunner in the Teddy Bridgewater draft (or Clowney?  Maybe Cutler could be persuaded to Jacksonville...).

Kevin Kolb- Bills.  I was a big Kolb supporter when he was traded from Philadelphia.  He has ultimately flopped in the league, but still has potential to play games behind EJ Manuel, especially considering the recent knee procedure Manuel had.  If his concussion turns out to be non-career threatening, the Bills will be better off (Matt Leinart, seriously?).

Mike Glennon- Buccaneers.  How much do you really trust Josh Freeman to make it through the season?  A think Glennon could get a real shot this season, and will impress with his arm strength.  He would have reliable targets, and could make coach Schiano look good for using a 3rd round pick on him.

Kellen Moore- Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had injury issues in the past.  Moore is accurate, and was generally mistake free when at Boise State, and has had high completion percentages in the preseason games.  Given an opportunity, the Lions would be in solid hands.

Brock Osweiler- Broncos.  Osweiler is huge- potentially the tallest QB in the league.  He has a great arm, and is learning behind one of the best in the game.  He will be the starter after Manning.

Backup Territory

40 Tarvaris Jackson- Seahawks.  Jackson is a mobile backup who twice led the Seahawks to 7 win seasons, including the memorable playoff win over New Orleans.  He is not a great starter in this league, but in cases of injury, he can handle the burden.  Isn't that what every team hopes for out of a backup QB?
39 Nick Foles- Eagles.  Like Jackson, Foles is capable of taking the reigns when needed.  Given Michael Vick's past history with injuries, I would bet he plays at least 4-6 games again this year.  He is decently accurate, and let's be honest- the Eagles aren't a playoff team with Vick anyways.
38 Matt Cassell- Vikings.  Cassell was below average in Kansas City, but is the most competent backup Christian Ponder has ever had.  He will push Ponder, and has the requisite experience to be solid in an NFC North that may be the best division in the NFL this year. 
37 Ryan Fitzpatrick- Titans.  Fitzpatrick was destined for a big-ish year in Buffalo, but the team was poor again, and he was released.  He is a very good backup, however, and one nearly every team would want behind their primary signal caller.

36 Brandon Weeden- Browns.  Weeden will be a 30 year old second year quarterback soon.  He has a decent arm, but would you really feel comfortable with him as a starting QB in this league?  He has a few intriguing targets in Gordon and Cameron, but he is better suited as a backup.
35 Ryan Mallett- Patriots.  Learning behind Tom Brady will be great for Mallett once he gets a real opportunity.  He has a cannon of an arm, and is the player I most expect to be traded next summer.  Many teams who fail will want Mallett as their signal caller so they can spend their first round pick elsewhere.
34 Geno Smith- Jets.  The Jets have quite the QB debacle on their hands.  I think Smith will wind up being a good NFL QB- though I think the first round grade some draft experts gave him was a little much.  If they truly think he offers the best chance for success they should start him- they have no one better.
33 Mark Sanchez- Jets.  Sanchez is a better QB than Smith- by a miniscule amount- right now.  He has the experience of 2 deep playoff runs, and is suffering most from poor self-efficacy rather than flawed QB mechanics.  He needs a change of scenery, and he could wind up starting somewhere else again. I would start him over Geno Smith this year.  That said- both rank outside the top 32.
32 Matt Hasselbeck- Colts.  The backup for Andrew Luck could still be a starter in this league- albeit not for a great team.  Luck is a budding superstar in this league, and Hasselbeck's experience offers a lot of insight for Luck.  In case of injury to Luck, Hasselbeck is a very capable backup.
31 Jake Locker- Titans.  I just don't have enough faith in Locker to bring them past being a 6 or 7 win team.  He is mobile and with good mechanics, but he does not throw for accuracy and makes bad decisions.  Under Bountygate talking head Greg Williams, he could learn enough for a bigger season.  I am skeptical, and Locker could be replaced by next season.
30 Christian Ponder- Vikings.  It says a lot that I place Ponder over Locker on this list.  Ponder is great on short throws, but is brutal when throwing the ball over 20 yards, where he didn't have one touchdown past last year.  Given the attention that will be paid to Peterson, he gets the nod here over Locker.  That said, I expect Minnesota to evaluate all of their options at the QB position soon.

Almost Comfortable Starting Them

29 Terrell Pryor- Raiders- Pryer is intriguing due to the success of dual threat QBs in the NFL last year.  He is very fast, and has a good arm.  The Raiders receiving options aren't great, so Pryor will struggle some if he wins the job, but he shows more potential than all but one backup QB in the league- stay tuned!
28 Matt Flynn- Raiders- Flynn was acquired for the second time in hopes of having him start at QB.  While it appears he still has an edge over Pryor, Dennis Allen has not yet made a decision.  Flynn is very accurate with a good arm, who deserves a chance.  Unfortunately- Flynn or Pryor- this Raiders team is a few years away.
27 Carson Palmer- Cardinals- Carson Palmer is past his prime, and inherits an offensive line that hasn't protected his quarterback very well.  He still has a potentially elite WR in Larry Fitzgerald, and a second year player in Michael Floyd who could have a great year.  Palmer has better targets this year, but his abilities have faded to the point where he only ranks 27.
26 Josh Freeman- Buccaneers- This is a make or break year for Josh Freeman- a former first round pick.  If he falters, Mike Glennon is waiting in the wings.  Freeman has a good arm, but has issues turning the ball over, and is not as mobile as he sometimes seems to be.  The Bucs ceiling is 8 wins, and even that may not be enough for Freeman.
25 Ryan Tannehill- Dolphins- Tannehill essentially starts a higher tier of NFL QBs on this board.  He has a great arm and lots of potential.  He finally has a deep threat in Mike Wallace, though he will be forced to prove his abilities over and over due to a lack of running game.  He will make great plays and make mistakes along the way.  If he has a +8 turnover ratio, the Dolphins could win the division.
24 EJ Manuel- Bills- Manuel's first round selection shocked the world, though he has, in respect, played well in preseason.  He recently had a minor knee surgery- and is out for a few more weeks- that could affect his scrambling ability.  I think he will put up the best numbers for a rookie QB, and his development is key to Buffalo's future success.
23 Michael Vick- Eagles- Vick could be 10 spots too high or too low.  He is a volatile player who is deadly when effective as a dual threat QB, and detrimental when ineffective.  Unfortunately for Chip Kelly, he is typically ineffective, and has had issues with injuries over the past few seasons.  Look for Vick to play the first 6 or 7 games before having his status- for health or performance- reevaluated.
22 Kirk Cousins- Redskins- I have Cousins rated as the best backup in the league, though he could start for many teams.  The Redskins have been in good hands with Cousins in charge, and may be forced to use him again if RG3 is misused again.  He is one to watch in the trade market next summer, potentially worth a first round pick.

Middle of the Road Starters

21 Sam Bradford- Rams- Sam Bradford hasn't developed the way a #1 overall pick should.  He is in one word:  Average.  He has good traits, but none elite.  He has good speed, but isn't a scrambler.  He has better protection and more athletic receivers, but their depth does not resemble that of a contender.  He needs to be efficient to move up on this list.
20 Cam Newton- Panthers- Newton is a monster fantasy football QB, but only ranks 20th on this list.  He makes bad decisions and really does not lead his team to wins.  The Panthers will be poor offensively as well, which does not help Newton's cause.  He rushes better than nearly all other QBs, but needs to improve his passing accuracy especially.  Do you trust his deep balls?  I don't yet.
19 Andy Dalton- Bengals- This should be Andy Dalton's season to prove he belongs in a higher tier.  He is fresh off a playoff berth, and is a typically mistake-free QB.  That said...  would you still take him over any of the other QBs below?  His receiving staff is underwhelming, though he does have a few solid tight ends in Gresham and Eifert.  Will he be a Rivers or a Flacco?  Brees even?  Sanchez?  In a few months we will all have a better idea.
18 Philip Rivers- Chargers.  Rivers sure looked like a franchise QB a few years ago.  Did Tomlinson help with that?  Rivers has not panned out for multiple playoff berths, but he has made a few Pro Bowls.  If San Diego really struggles, they would draft Bridgewater.  Maybe this pressure will aid his performance- for better or worse.
17 Matthew Stafford- Lions.  Stafford is drafted incredibly high in fantasy leagues.  Take Calvin Johnson off that team and is he still drafted in the first 50 picks?  I think not.  Plain and simple, the former number one pick is average.  This Detroit team has had playoff talent the last few seasons, but hasn't had a breakthrough.  Stafford needs to cut down on turnovers, and increase his completion percentage to make the leap to the next tier.
16 Alex Smith- Chiefs.  Alex Smith takes control of a Chiefs squad that can only get better.  He has an elite RB, elite WR, and a #1 pick at LT.  This offense will be just fine.  Alex Smith is a solid game manager who can lead a very good team deep.  He doesn't need to throw 40 times a game to be effective.  Just as he was handled in SF, he can be good when put in the right situations.  That places him in the top half, even if only just.

 Very Good Starters

15 Jay Cutler- Bears.  Cutler takes heat for being apathetic.  If the team went 1-15, would he care?  Intangibles aside, Cutler has a fantastic arm and an elite WR in Brandon Marshall.  His offensive line is better with the addition of Kyle Long, but the LT position still needs to be addressed soon.  If healthy, and the team stays healthy- a big if considering the hits Cutler has taken- the Bears could return to the playoffs.
14 Matt Schaub- Texans.  I may be overrating Schaub here.  He is, like Alex Smith, a terrific game manager.  For years, he has only had Andre Johnson to throw to deep, which would limit anyone's effectiveness.  Enter DeAndre Hopkins, and the team has deep threats on both sidelines.  Schaub has two terrific backs in Foster and Tate, and if turnover free for most of the season, the Texans could win the AFC.  He is a dark horse for the MVP award.
13 Ben Roethlisberger- Steelers.  Big Ben has his issues.  His intangibles off the field have been in doubt multiple times, and he has had issues with health.  When healthy, he is awesome.  Roethlisberger is mobile enough to pick up first downs with his feet, and he has an exceptional head coach in Mike Tomlin.  The Steelers have no excuse not to return to the playoffs this year.
12 Tono Romo- Cowboys.  Romo is a very good QB who is capable of leading playoff runs.  The pressure has been turned up high in Dallas over the last few years, and, unfortunately, this won't be Dallas' year.  The win/loss record will not be Romo's fault, as he has an elite weapon in Bryant at WR, and an elite TE in Witten.  The defense is a huge issue, and, unless Romo is willing to play LB, the team is going to struggle.
11 Robert Griffin III- Redskins.  I want to put RG3 in the next tier.  I really do.  He is the fastest QB in the league, and is accurate throwing the ball.  My biggest issue is his health.  Can the Redskins count on him for this whole season?  To be considered near-elite, he has to be durable and lead the Redskins to another playoff berth.  Last year was awesome, and if he can do it again, I'll be convinced.
10 Joe Flacco- Ravens.  Supporters of Flacco would ask me what more he has to do.  He just won a Super Bowl!!  When I see Flacco, I see a QB who wins games.  He has been to the playoffs every year, and is a top 10 QB.  Statistically, he throws for just under 4000 yards this year again, and his receiving corps are not what they were last year.  Torrey Smith and Ray Rice are his only targets that received major looks last year that return.  I am not opposed to putting Flacco in the near-elite tier if you think he belongs there, but I think the Ravens would sure trade Flacco for any of the next 5 QBs on this list.

Near Elite QBs

9 Colin Kaepernick- 49ers.  Kaepernick has a case as the best athlete at the QB position in the NFL.  His athleticism and body measurements are phenomenal.  He is a good passer as well, though I am excited to see him in action for a full season.  When he throws 20-25 attempts per game, the Niners are at their best.  Look for lots of read-option sets that give him an option to throw as well.
8 Eli Manning- Giants.  Manning reminds me a lot of Flacco, though he has two Super Bowls to his name.  Manning's biggest issue is turning the ball over.  His interception numbers have fallen, though part of that can be attributed to throwing the ball closer.  He threw for 1000 less yards last year than in 2011.  The nature of his progression has come with awareness improvements more than physical change.  If Manning can lead a deep playoff run again, he could find himself in the next category.  That said, if you had to pick Manning or Matt Ryan for the next 3 years, who would you take?  I'd take Ryan.
7 Andrew Luck- Colts.  Luck is going to be #1 on this list in 3-5 years.  Guaranteed.  He looks like a superstar.  To get there, he has to cut down on the turnovers- a statline that will only get better as he matures in the NFL.  His throwing mechanics are elite, and he has the ability to rush for TD's (5 last year) as well.  Luck should lead the Colts to another playoff berth this year.
6 Russell Wilson- Seahawks.  Russell Wilson defied odds as a sub-6-foot QB who has reached an enormous level of success.  He is the best dual-threat QB in the league, and throws an exceptional deep ball to supplement his short game.  His WR corps are somewhat shaky after the injury to Percy Harvin, though he reached similar success with underwhelming receivers last year.  Maybe Sidney Rice returns to form?
5 Matt Ryan- Falcons.  Matty Ice is a great season away from being declared elite on this blog.  He throws all over the field with accuracy, has made continual playoff berths, and has the statistics to back up this ranking (4700, 32/14).  If he can win a few playoff games, there isn't much to set him apart from Drew Brees.  This could be Atlanta's year, but only if Matt Ryan plays at the elite level he is capable of.

Elite QBs

4 Drew Brees- Saints.  Brees is the last QB I include in this elite tier, though the ones before him are close.  Brees can sling the ball all over the field, and has athletic receivers to hook up with.  His running game is lacking, and the pressure is on him to return to the playoffs.  I expect a 4500 yard season at least, and 10 wins.  New Orleans should be relevant this year.
3 Peyton Manning- Broncos.  Manning, like Brady next, should be past his prime.  In a new system, with as good a receiving core as he has had, why should we expect a down year from Manning.  Last night he threw 240 yards on 34 pass attempts in the FIRST HALF!  The Broncos trust Manning's game management, and he will lead the team to another playoff berth.  Good for Elway.
2 Tom Brady- Patriots.  I worry about Brady this year.  His receiving options are as limited as they ever have been.  Kenbrell Thompson, and undrafted rookie, could lead the team in yards.  Julian Edelman could potentially step in as Wes Welker's replacement.  His running game is better than in the past, which gives him something to lean on.  Brady is aging, but still elite.  Last time we counted out Brady due to shoddy receiving Randy Moss and Welker broke out.  I predicted a down year for New England, and Brady probably makes me eat crow.
1 Aaron Rodgers- Packers.  Rodgers is the best QB in the game right now.  Period.  He has an elite weapon in Randall Cobb, and trusted targets in Jones and Nelson.  He finally has a running back to hand the ball to, and some of the pressure he has faced in the last few seasons will be alleviated.  He is accurate and throws the deep ball well.  Think of any player in the league.  Anyone.  I can't think of one player I would trade Aaron Rodgers for, and that makes him number 1.