NFL Preview

Here are my predictions of how the NFL standings and awards are going to look:

NFC West
Seattle 11-5*
San Francisco 11-5*
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 6-10

Analysis:  Seattle and San Francisco continue to lead the way in this division.  While St. Louis and Arizona have both improved, teams led by Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer cannot help teams make the leap to the next level.  Look for Russell Wilson to have a big, and efficient, year, even in the absence of Percy Harvin.  Kaepernick will be great as well, but he needs production out of his running backs to take off some of the pressure (Lynch will do the same in SEA).  Gore and LaMichael James are poised for very good years. Tavon Austin finally gives the Rams a game changer, but his college teammate Stedman Bailey is one to watch as well.  In the end, I think Russell Wilson will lead the 'Hawks far, and Kaepernick/Gore will keep the 'Niners extraordinarily relevant.

NFC East
NY Giants 11-5*
Washington 10-6**
Dallas 6-10
Philadelphia 4-12

Analysis:  The Giants lead the way in this division, led by Eli Manning.  He has two elite WR options in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, and an offensive line that is among the best in the division.  Defensively, the team will be good enough to win the division.  Washington will make a return to the playoffs if Griffin has a repeat season, but I am skeptical that he will stay healthy the entire time.  Kirk Cousins is among the best backups in the league, but I don't think he will push a team into playoff contention just yet.  Dallas and Philadelphia are rebuilding, even if Jerry Jones refuses to admit it.  He sees playoffs, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle for the team everyone loves to hate.  Chip Kelly's offense will prove potent, but he does not have enough pieces all around to have a successful season just yet.

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5*
Chicago 9-7
Minnesota 8-8
Detroit 8-8

Analysis:  In what may be the toughest division this year, Green Bay has the slight edge for now.  They have potent offensive players at every position, though the offensive line will have shaky moments.  Their balanced offensive attack can best the one dimensional Detroit and Minnesota attacks.  Chicago may be the best rival to win the division, assuming the team stays healthy.  The offensive line in Chicago is even worse than the one in Green Bay.  I expect lots of high scoring outings in this division, but Aaron Rodgers should lead his team to the playoffs yet again.

NFC South
Atlanta 11-5*
New Orleans 10-6**
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 6-10

Analysis:  Matt Ryan has taken the step into being a top 5 QB for now (Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees), and has the best protection in the division and, perhaps, the best defense.  New Orleans should rebound from their down year- clouded by Bountygate- to another wild card berth.  Brees is healthy, and should throw for 5000 yards again.  Tampa Bay is improving, but is only an 8-8 team under Josh Freeman.  Darrell Revis could be a defensive player of the year candidate, and bolsters a strong secondary in Tampa.  I'm not saying Mike Glennon will end the season as the starter in Tampa- it is too big of a stretch, barring injury- but he could be at the start of next season.  Carolina has a stat stuffer at QB in Cam Newton, but this team is not built to win just yet.  Luke Kuechly will have a monster year, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle.

AFC East
Miami 9-7*
New England 8-8
Buffalo 5-11
NY Jets 4-12

Analysis:  WOW!  Yes, the Dolphins are going to win the AFC East.  This is the weakest division in the NFL, as the Jets are in a state of chaos, Buffalo is rebuilding, and the Patriots offense is aging and in shambles.  Miami upgraded their pass rush by drafting Deon Jordan, added a deep threat in Mike Wallace, and Ryan Tannehill should be another season improved.  I am not a huge Tannehill fan, but the divisions weakness this year sets up nicely for his success.  EJ Manuel could be a rookie of the year candidate to watch for in Buffalo, but I expect year 2 under Doug Marrone to go better.  Who is Tom Brady supposed to throw to in this division?  His slot man now catches balls from Peyton Manning, his two top tight ends are either injured or defending murder charges, and his top replacement is as injury prone as they come.  Look for Julian Edelman to catch 75 passes, and Tim Tebow- YES, TIM TEBOW- to see time at TE, especially around the goal line.  Ultimately, Tom Brady will not be heading to the playoffs this year.  

AFC North
Pittsburgh 11-5*
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 5-11

Analysis:  Another strong division- to no surprise.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore lead the way in this division, with the likely winner the one less decimated by injuries.  Joe Flacco made a lot of money after his Super Bowl win, but, I am still skeptical of his offensive weapons and blind side protector.  Is Torrey Smith supposed to lead the team in receiving?  He is not a #1 guy just yet.  Their defense, again, will be very good, though they lost lots off their title team.  Pittsburgh has a very capable defense as well, though, like Baltimore's last year, is aging (namely in the secondary).  Big Ben has good targets to throw to in Antonio Brown and newly drafted Markus Wheaton.  His running game is not as good as it has been, but I doubt that will matter too much given the shift to a more passing style in the NFL.  Cincinnati will endure a "sophomore slump" of sorts, after reaching the playoffs last year.  Andy Dalton is a decent starting QB, but he does not have many capable targets around him.  Their good defense cannot score the ball much for Cincy.  Cleveland finally has a brighter future, though the search for a competent QB still continues (sorry Brandon Weeden).  Trent Richardson looks like a star, and provides a very valuable building block for the next few years.  I like their outlook, but not this season.

AFC South
Houston 11-5*
Indianapolis 10-6*
Tennessee 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12

Analysis:  The AFC South will be a two horse race between Matt Schaub's Texans and Andrew Luck's Colts.  The Texans may have the top offense in the league, as they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back and Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at WR.  Adding in Owen Daniels (when healthy), and Schaub has 5 legitimate options to give the ball to.  Defensively, Brian Cushing could have a huge year, and JJ Watt will continue his reign of terror on offensive tackles.  Andrew Luck will be the best QB in the league within the next 3-5 years, but his prominence in year two will only earn a wild card berth.  Chuck Pagano is back for a full season, though Bruce Arians has been hired to coach Arizona.  I have to like the development of offensive rookies last year, though the big question marks are on the defensive side of the ball.  The bottom of their division is weak, and I expect Luck to be able to make enough plays to win games.  2 minutes to go, down by 5, Andrew Luck is a great option to turn to.  Tennessee and Jacksonville need to find out what they have in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, and I think both teams will be searching for answers next spring as to who the future belongs to at QB.  It could be a long season for these franchises- a shame for Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew.

AFC West
Denver 12-4*
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 5-11
Oakland 4-12

Analysis:  Denver is projected here to finish with the top record in the NFL.  The offense is stacked, and the defense has solid pieces to help contend for a Super Bowl, though they will miss Elvis Dumervil.  Manning to Welker could prove fruitful, though Thomas will breakout this year (as if he hasn't already).  The team seems to be at the top of their game.  Kansas City will bounce back nicely from their last place finish to go 8-8, led by former 49er Alex Smith.  Jamaal Charles is poised for a big year, and Dexter McCluster could get more touches (a good thing!) under Andy Reid as well.  Defensively I have a lot of questions for this group, but they should have no problems scoring points.  8-8 seems about right.  San Diego will find theirselves in a quandary over Philip Rivers- is he worth keeping around for much longer?  After a few great seasons, he has essentially played at a replacement level.  It would not shock me to see him in a new uniform next season (Jets?).  Oakland is rebuilding, and has first time starter Matt Flynn at the helm.  I like Flynn a lot- and expect reasonable success- but his top RB is injury prone, and he has no notable wide receivers to be excited about.  It could be a long year in Oakland.

Projected Playoff Teams*
Tiebreaker Scenario**


Other Predictions:

MVP- Russell Wilson QB/Seattle- His continued efficiency will lead Seattle to a share of the division title and a deep playoff run.  He is a dual threat who makes smart choices about when to scramble, and is very accurate on short and deep passes alike.  Look for a 22/6-esque ratio for TDs to INTs, with a handful of scores on the ground.  His stats won't be the brightest, but he will be the most VALUABLE player in the league.
Next Choice:  Matt Ryan
Dark Horse: Matt Schaub

Offensive Player of the Year- Aaron Rodgers QB/Green Bay- Now I am becoming more wary of this pick every hour given the state of his offensive line, but he is the best QB in the league with among the best WR corps.  James Jones and Jordy Nelson are reliable red-zone targets, and Randall Cobb is poised for a 100+ catch, 1300 yard breakout season.  He is essentially an explosive Wes Welker.  I like Rodgers to win this award because of his WR options, and his ability to make every throw.
Next Choice:  CJ Spiller
Dark Horse:  Matthew Stafford

Defensive Player of the Year- JJ Watt DE/Houston- This seems like an easy pick, but every year a handful of defensive players are worthy of this award.  Watt was soooo dominant last year that it is hard to pick against him.  If he puts up 15 sacks again this year, coupled with the constant pressure he provides on QBs, including pass deflections, he could repeat with this award.
Next Choice:  Darrell Revis
Dark Horse: Luke Kuechly

Offensive Rookie of the Year- Monte Ball RB/Denver- John Fox is not afraid to hand off the ball, and Peyton Manning makes running backs better with his presence (see Joseph Addai, Knowshon Moreno).  Ball is a classic runner who can catch passes too.  He won't be a top ten fantasy back like Alfred Morris last year, but he will be in an advantageous situation to accelerate his progress.
Next Choice:  EJ Manuel
Dark Horse:  Stedman Bailey

Defensive Rookie of the Year- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- I am taking a total leap of faith with this one.  Ansah is incredibly raw, but shows unbelievable potential.  He has the ability to put up 10+ sacks, and shows the ability to cover in a zone too- he had a pick-6 on Sanchez in last week's preseason game.  He isn't a safe pick here, but he could have a jaw-dropping year.
Next Choice:  Dion Jordan
Dark Horse:  Matt Elam