Friday, February 8, 2013

Updated NBA Draft Big Board

In the last couple of weeks, there has been a lot of good college basketball played.  Some players have dramatically helped their draft stocks (See: Oladipo, Victor), and others have hurt their's (See: Carter-Williams, Michael).  The grade scale has remained the same (see previous posts for scale) and I have written a brief analysis of each player.  Here is how the board currently looks:

  1. Shabazz Muhammad G-F/UCLA- Muhammad is still #1 on my board.  A versatile wing, he can shoot, slash, rebound and play defense.  His biggest knock is his use of his right hand, but, if that is his only weakness he could very well go #1.
  2. Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky- Noel is the best interior defender in college basketball.  He blocks shots and rebounds at a very high rate, but is very raw offensively.  His offense will get better, and he has All-Star potential based off of his defensive acumen.
  3. Ben McLemore SG/Kansas- If a team wants the best scorer in the draft, look no further than McLemore.  He is a very good athlete, and has a good stroke from 3.  He hasn't taken over late in games, which will be necessary for Kansas to make a deep tourney run.
  4. Alex Len C/Maryland- There is a drop-off from McLemore to Len, but Len can be a very good center in the NBA.  At 7'1, he is athletic, has a solid post up game down low and up high, and is an above average rebounder.  He needs more touches.
  5. Cody Zeller C/Indiana- Zeller is a bit of an enigma to me.  He is a beast in the college game, but may not have skills that transfer to the NBA due to his athleticism.  He is a very smart player, however, and should still be a starter in the league one day.
  6. Otto Porter SF/Georgetown- Porter does everything well, but nothing great.  He can shoot a solid percentage, rebound the ball well, and defend good opponents.  One day he could be Ron Artest without the crazy.
  7. Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky- Poythress is still at 7 on my board, but he is barely hanging on.  He hasn't shown a desire to be great in college, and must be more consistent.  His athleticism and basketball IQ scream lottery pick, but his production isn't there.  He might need another year at UK.
  8. CJ McCollum G/Lehigh- McCollum's foot will heal.  He isn't a true point guard either.  Despite his flaws, he has the look of a very good NBA scorer, and he is a good ball handler and rebounder, too.  He has potential to improve, even as a senior, and a team who selects him will be glad they did.
  9. Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State- Smart does everything well, but shoot.  His court vision is among the best in college, and his 6'4" frame screams NBA.  Best case scenario could be Jason Kidd, who also wasn't a great shooter during his first few years.  Smart has farther to go though.
  10. Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor- Austin has unbelievable height, and will be successful in the pros if he can use it to his advantage.  Despite being 7'0" (or even 7'1" he is listed some places), he is not a center, but a PF, and will rely on a high post game to be successful.  He has to add some strength, and Austin will be a commodity on draft day.
  11. Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana- Oladipo is soaring up my draft board.  He has definite starter potential, and is the best perimeter defender in the draft.  He has proven this year that he can score on his own, and hit an efficient number of outside jump shots.  Oh and he is a great athlete too.
  12. Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV- Bennett is an undersized 4 man, but a very talented one.  He rebounds well and can score out to 20 feet.  His athleticism will not be great at the next level, but continued improvement could lead to an Elton Brand like career.  Without it he could be Derrick Williams.
  13. Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky- Goodwin looked a lot better to start the season.  He has struggled in conference, and needs to get back to his aggressive offensive play.  His first step is explosive, but he is settling for 3s and deferring to teammates.  He is the closest thing UK has to a go to guy.  It is his time to shine.
  14. Trey Burke PG/Michigan- Burke has moved his way into the #2 PG spot on my board.  His court vision is outstanding, and he shows a nice ability to find shots for both himself and for teammates.  He is only 6'0", but he could wind up being the starting PG for a team someday. 
  15. Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse- Carter-Williams has faded after a hot start too.  He is struggling with his shooting, and his assist numbers have come down a lot.  At 6'6", he shows potential as a big PG, with long arms and quick feet.  Many people are saying he could be what was expected of Shaun Livingston.
  16. Rudy Gobert C/France- Gobert has a 7'9" wingspan. (I'll pause so you can read that again) He shows tremendous potential as a defensive center, though is incredibly raw at this point.  Offensively his range extends about 4 feet.  But, hey, if Bismack Biyombo can go in the top 10, why can't Gobert?
  17. Mason Plumlee PF/Duke- Plumlee won't be a starter at the next level.  He is a good athlete who can rebound and score some in the post, and has a constant motor.  Think Tyler Hansbrough.
  18. Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky- Cauley-Stein would also benefit by going back to school.  He has shown moments of potential, but is too raw to make an impact on the NBA yet.  If he declares, a patient team could reap benefits as Denver and Charlotte have done with Koufus and Mullens.
  19. CJ Leslie PF/NC State- Leslie is a great athlete, and has shown a much improved game, but I still don't think he is a starter at the next level.  Dante Cunningham is a good comparison.  He has potential to be a solid contributor, but he has the game of a PF in the body of a SF.
  20. James McAdoo PF/North Carolina- McAdoo has severely hurt his draft stock by coming back to school.  He isn't the athlete once thought, and has a tough time scoring against athletic opponents.  As a solid big-man off the bench at the next level, he would be worth a late rd. 1 pick.
  21. Russ Smith G/Louisville- You could tell me Russ Smith belongs in the second round and I would see where you were coming from.  However, I think a team who takes him will fall in love.  He is blindingly quick in transition, and is a good defender.  As a first guard off the bench, he could give a scoring punch.  Has to improve guard skills though.
  22. Andre Roberson PF/Colorado- Roberson would be higher if he had any offensive game.  He is a below average shooter, and cannot create his own shot inside.  He is an average defender, and an unbelievable rebounder.  If he can develop any outside shot, he could become a #5 starter.
  23. Tony Mitchell PF/North Texas- Mitchell has been disappointing as well this year, and hasn't dominated like his talent suggests.  A great athlete, I expected to see improvement with scoring and rebounds in particular, but he hasn't progressed.  A team could take him in the first based off of potential.
  24. Sergey Karasev SF/Russia- Karasev reminds me of a taller Rudy Fernandez, though a lesser athlete.  He might not come over right away, but in a few years he could really help a playoff team.  He is the best shooter in this year's international class.
  25. Glenn Robinson III F/Michigan- Robinson should return to school, as he could become a lottery pick next year if he improves his offensive game.  He is a great athlete and good rebounder, but has to improve his scoring and on ball defense.
  26. Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia- Gobert and Karasev are higher on the board, but Nedovic is my favorite international player in this class.  He is a combo guard who excels getting to the rim, and has shown an improved outside shot.  If he can develop better court vision, and improve his guard skills, he could be the next Goran Dragic.
  27. CJ Wilcox SG/Washington- Wilcox can shoot the ball, and is a good enough athlete to become a better defender.  At the next level, Courtney Lee could be a good comparison.
  28. Dario Saric SF/Croatia- Saric is a raw prospect, but shows a lot of potential as a tall point forward.  Mentally, he has some maturing to do, and needs to improve his BBall IQ, but a team keeping him overseas could reap a lot of benefits.  He could be the first Euro off the board, easily.
  29. Brandon Paul SG/Illinois- Paul has the look of a scorer, as he has been the focal point of opposing defenses for the past few years.  He doesn't project as a starter at the next level, but as a sixth man he offers value.  His size for the position is very good as well.
  30. Jeff Withey C/Kansas- I am torn over whether I like Withey or Dieng more.  Both are centers who rebound well, and protect the rim with vigor.  Dieng will probably be a better player in a few years, but is more raw now.  A contender could like Withey's ability to step in right away as a backup center.
Others I considered?  Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville, Allen Crabbe SG/Cal, Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State, Myck Kabongo PG/Texas, Jamaal Franklin SG/SDSU, LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State

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March Madness is fast approaching, acquaint yourself with prospects in advance.

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