Friday, February 8, 2013

NCAA Tournament Picture by Conferences

It is already February!  March Madness is rapidly approaching, and many teams have locked thierselves into the postseason tournament, others are found on the bubble, and others now need to win conference tournaments to get in.  So who will make the field of 68?  These are the teams best positioned as of today (Conference Tourney Champions always make field, predictions in bold):

Major Conferences:
ACC:
Locks: Duke, Miami
Should make it: North Carolina, North Carolina State,
Bubble: Virginia, Florida State, Maryland

Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette

Should make it: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
Bubble: St. Johns, Connecticut, Villanova

Big 10
Locks: Michigan, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State

Should make it: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bubble: Illinois

Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Should make it: Baylor
Bubble: Iowa State, Oklahoma

Pac 12
Locks: Arizona, Oregon

Should make it: UCLA, Arizona State
Bubble: Colorado, Stanford, Cal

SEC
Locks: Florida, Kentucky

Should make it: Ole Miss, Missouri
Bubble: Alabama, Arkansas

Total:
Locks: 17

Should make it: 12
Bubble: 14

Mid-Majors:
America East:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Stony Brook)

Atlantic 10
Locks: Butler, VCU

Should make it: Saint Louis
Bubble: La Salle, Charlotte, Xavier

Atlantic Sun
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Mercer)

Big Sky:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Weber State)

Big South:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  UNC-Ashville)

Big West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Long Beach State)

Colonial:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Delaware)

Conference USA
Locks:

Should make it: Memphis
Bubble:

Great West:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Texas Pan-American)

Horizon:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Detroit)

Ivy League:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Harvard)

MAAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Iona)

Mid American:
Locks:

Should make it:
Bubble: Akron, Ohio

MEAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Norfolk State)

Missouri Valley:
Locks: Creighton, Wichita State

Should make it: Indiana State
Bubble:

Mountain West:
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico

Should make it: Colorado State
Bubble: Air Force

Northeast:
Conference Champion Only (Prediction:  Bryant)

Ohio Valley:
Locks:

Should make it:
Bubble: Belmont, Murray State

Patriot:
Locks:

Should make it:
Bubble: Bucknell, Lehigh

Southern:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Davidson)

Southland:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Stephen F. Austin)

SWAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Southern)

Summit:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  South Dakota State)

Sun Belt:
Locks:

Should make it:
Bubble:  Middle Tennessee State

West Coast:
Locks: Gonzaga

Should make it: St. Mary's
Bubble: BYU

WAC:
Conference Champ Only (Prediction:  Louisiana Tech)


Total:
Locks: 8

Should make it: 5
Bubble: 12

As one can see, there are many quality teams searching for admittance into the NCAA Tournament.  Not all of the teams projected will win their conferences, and, there will be a few conferences where an unlikely winner will knock an at-large team into the NIT (Ex:  BYU most likely won't make the tourney, but if they win their conference tourney, they will knock an at-large team out, as Gonzaga and St. Mary's will both still make the field.)

Much too early Final 4 picks:  Indiana, Michigan, Louisville, Gonzaga
Much too early upset teams to go deep:  VCU, Middle Tennessee State, NC State, Colorado State
Much too early picks to get upset early:  Miami, Kansas State, Missouri, Creighton

There is a long way to go until Selection Sunday.  Expect lots of change by way of injuries, momentum late in the season, and unexpected conference tournament wins.  I am excited to see how it plays out!

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