Monday, February 4, 2013

NBA Trades?

Today (Monday), ESPN ran a 5v5 segment regarding trades that make the most sense involving players who have been rumored for a move.  The players who the talks revolved around were:

Kevin Garnett
Paul Pierce
Pau Gasol
Josh Smith
JJ Redick

Garnett has a no-trade clause, and has 2 years and 23 million left on his contract after this season, despite the fact that he will turn 37 this May.  For some contenders, he may be an appealing option, as he could help the team stay relevant.  For others, I fail to see a great fit.  The best example of a poor fit, in my opinion, is the Clippers (Where Garnett has been rumored most).  The Clippers' current frontcourt in Griffin and Garnett compliments each other well, and Bledsoe, as the team's 3rd best guard (behind Paul and Crawford) should be retained if Paul leaves.  The deal is just too risky.  A deal that makes sense would be with San Antonio, another veteran team who's title window is closing.

Boston gets: Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson
San Antonio gets: Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry

Why Boston does it?  With Rondo out, the Celtics won't advance far anyways.  Leonard and Splitter offer young pieces to add to Rondo and Green, and Jackson's exp. contract gives them added cap flexibility this summer.
Why SA does it?  Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are aging, whether the signs show it or not.  In a playoff series, the aging could show more, and seasoned vets like Garnett and Terry would make the team a legitimate threat for the title this year.


Paul Pierce, unlike KG, does not have a no-trade clause.  After this season, Pierce has only 1 year left at 15 million on his contract.  I highly doubt that they trade both KG and Pierce, but, if they choose Pierce, there are teams that would be interested.  Again, the Clippers have been mentioned as a trade partner, though I doubt they will be willing to give up Bledsoe for a noticably aging Pierce (though he would be a significant upgrade over Caron Butler and Lamar Odom).  A team that could use Pierce?  The Sacramento Kings.  A deal like this could work:

Boston gets: Tyreke Evans, Aaron Brooks, Jimmer Fredette, Francisco Garcia
Sacramento gets: Paul Pierce, Fab Melo, Leandro Barbosa

Why Boston does it?  As mentioned with Garnett's trade, the Celtics cannot win a playoff series without Rondo.  Adding Tyreke Evans could be beneficial as he isn't the right fit for Sacramento, and could be let go if Boston doesn't work out.  He has lots of potential though.  Brooks offers a more pure PG, whereas Avery Bradley is better suited playing at the 2.  Fredette is a solid shooter, but doesn't offer much else.  In a backcourt with Lee or Bradley, his defensive and athletic shortcomings could be hidden.  Garcia has a team option that will be declined.  A better future outlook for Boston.
Why Sacramento does it?  The team is moving to Seattle, and a year of Paul Pierce could help the franchise by giving them a household name to begin relocation with.  A 2 man game with Cousins could be deadly on the court, and help with Cousins' shortcomings off the court.  Melo is a throw-in that will be developed and Barbosa offers another guard to cope with the departures of Brooks, Fredette and Garcia.  The upside for next season outweighs the risks of taking on salary amidst a relocation.


Pau Gasol is lost in Los Angeles.  D'Antoni has not used him properly, as he needs a stretch 4 to run his offense.  Earl Clark has been decent in the role, but has led to Gasol's demise.  Houston has desperately been looking at Josh Smith, though Gasol provides a better fit, though he will cost a team 19 million dollars next year (the last on his contract).  If Houston acquires him, his salary would come off the books in time for both Asik and Lin's poison pill salaries to kick in.  However, Gasol's salary would likely be too big for Houston to acquire without giving up.  A team that could work?  The Bucks.  Here is an offer that could work:

Lakers get:  Ersan Ilyasova, Beno Udrih, Samuel Dalembert, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
Bucks get:  Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace

Why LA does it?  Ilyasova gives D'Antoni his needed stretch 4 and outside shooter.  With Ilyasova, his offense would have no excuse not to work.  Mbah A Moute offers a younger, more athletic defender, though does not offer much offense.  Udrih and Dalembert are solid pieces for a playoff run, and have contracts that expire after the season.  Dalembert would make up for the loss of Jordan Hill.
Why Milwaukee does it? The Bucks find the team in 7th place in the East.  If this is to be a season for a playoff run, Gasol would give them an interior presence that is much needed.  World Peace isn't quite the athlete he once was, but could add lots of toughness to the Bucks frontcourt, plus he can hit the occasional 3.  With other teams down in the East, this could be Milwaukee's shot to go deep in the playoffs.


Josh Smith is obviously done in Atlanta, and Ferry should deal him for assets at the deadline.  The odds of getting Dwight Howard, and thus appeasing Smith are close to none.  Young talent could be had, though Smith's recent request to be a max-paid player might throw up some red flags.  He is, at best, a #2 option on a team, and should not be paid like a max player.  That said, teams will still be interested.  Just as Houston didn't have enough cap space for Gasol, they would have enough to make a run at Smith, who makes more than 6 million less.  Houston could make an attractive offer of:

Atlanta gets: Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Donatus Motiejunas, Royce White, 2 rd. 2 picks
Houston gets: Josh Smith

Why Atlanta does it?  They get assets up front to build depth around Al Horford.  Patterson is a starter-level player, Aldrich is a capable backup center, and both Motiejunas and White have potential (and White could use a change in scenery...  though it's on him this time if it doesn't work).  They also gain cap space to make a play for a notable free agent.
Why Houston does it?  For one, Smith's expiring deal, coupled with the young talent they give up, lead Atlanta to not get a first round pick in the deal, rather 2 2nd rounders.  Smith's play is too tempting to pass up.  A front line of Asik and Smith is fantastic defensively, and would make up for the defensive shortcomings of their star in Harden and PG in Lin.


Finally, JJ Redick is a hot commodity among playoff teams, as adding shooters is very important for winning playoff series.  He is an average defender and a good playmaker at the 2 spot, which helps increase his value.  He should earn a contract earning about 8 million per year for his next contract, though, which some may view as an overpay.  Teams who could be interested.  Indiana?

Pacers get:  JJ Redick
Magic get:  DJ Augustin, Gerald Green, lottery protected rd. 1 pick

Why Indiana does it?  Spacing the floor is key for their offense, and none do it better than the former Duke G Redick.  The best defensive team in the league needs a shooting guard, and a 3-wing tandem of Redick, George and Granger is impressive.  He could be the last piece to a deep playoff run.
Why the Magic do it?  The Magic are in rebuilding mode.  The first round pick will help the process, and Green and Augustin both showed potential last season, though have struggled this season.  The move could be a risk, but the Magic would do well getting something for Redick, who will earn more money elsewhere this summer anyways.

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