NBA Draft 2012

The NBA Season is about half-way over.  Evaluating a rookie class takes time, as some players take a few years to develop into useful players (Koufos, Mullens to name a few who did very little as rookies).  However, many rookies have shown a lot over the first month.  Looking back at my own rankings, including where players were drafted, how have the rookies done so far? (Order is my pre-draft rankings, actual draft spot in parenthesis)

1. Anthony Davis (1)- Davis has had a good rookie year, scoring 13, grabbing nearly 8 boards per game, and blocking almost 2 shots.  His offensive game is still developing, but he looks like a great defensive stopper already.  He will be a star.  NO should have no regrets
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2)- MKG shows lots of potential.  Though inconsistent at times, his motor has allowed him to score more than 10 a game, and grab more than 6 boards per game.  Defensively he is great, and he has a PER above league average.  If he learns how to shoot, watch out for MKG.  CHA should still love the pick.
3. Thomas Robinson (5)- Robinson went 2 spots lower than I had him ranked, though that was primarily due to teams drafting for need.  Robinson hasn't earned the minutes the top two have, as he is stuck playing behind Cousins and Jason Thompson (who he should be ahead of).  His efficiency rating isn't great, but his per minute rebounding is.  He needs more time to showcase his talents.  SAC should theoretically have their frontcourt of the future with T-Rob and Cousins.
4. Bradley Beal (3)- Beal was supposed to be the top shooter in the draft.  He was underwhelming at Florida and has been underwhelming in the NBA so far, shooting less than 33% on 3s.  He has been a lot better in January scoring the ball, and will most likely look even better when John Wall comes back.  Beal needs a better point guard next to him.  Washington is terrible, but should still be excited about Beal.
5. Damian Lillard (6)- I wanted Lillard in Portland all along.  Rating him at 5 may have been too low.  He will win the ROY award, and has put up impressive numbers at around 18/7ast.  He will improve a lot too.  He needs to be more consistent with his long range jumpers, but he is a future star in the league.  He will be one of the top PGs in the league over the next ten years.  POR should be ecstatic that teams ahead of them passed on Lillard.
6. Harrison Barnes (7)- Barnes biggest struggle is creating his own shot.  As a rookie, he is still learning how to do this, as athletes around him are more athletic than in college.  He scores the ball well for the playoff-bound Warriors, and rebounds well too.  Oh, and he had a nice introduction to Nikola Pekovic of the T-Wolves earlier this year.  (In case you missed it:    GS should enjoy Barnes as their 3 man.
7. Andre Drummond (9)- His physical talents are reminiscent of Dwight Howard.  Incredibly efficent thus far, Drummond is scoring over 7 points and grabbing more than 7 rebounds per game, while only on the court 19.7 minutes per game.  I am very impressed by Drummond, and dumbfounded that Detroit doesn't have him in the game more often.  He should be starting over Maxiell.  Detroit has many issues with their franchise, but the center spot won't be one of them over the next decade if they hold onto Drummond.
8. Dion Waiters (4)- The previous 7 players were all given draft grades that projected them to make at least one all-star team.  Waiters was the first on my big board not in that category.  Waiters looks good next to Kyrie Irving, though is not very efficient.  That backcourt duo, though, should be a good one assuming the improvement of Thompson, and addition of a better 3 man (sorry Alonzo Gee).  Waiters has also improved as the year has advanced, but the Cavs still aren't winning games.  The Cavs should trade Varejao to help add youth to their solid rebuilding project.  CLE still has a good pick.
9. John Henson (14)- I wanted Portland to select Henson at pick 11.  Still rail thin, Henson has been very good in Milwaukee, averaging almost 6 points and 5 boards in only 13 minutes per game.  He should be starting.  In 20mpg in January, his stats have improved to almost 11/9.  He should have no problem being a 15/10 guy in the NBA.  The new coaching philosophy in Milwaukee has to find Henson on the court more often.  At pick 14, he was a steal.
10. Perry Jones III (28)- Due to knee concerns, he slipped all the way to the Thunder at the end of round 1.  He isn't seeing the court very often, and hasn't been great thus far.  In the D-League (11 games, 33mpg) he has averaged 14/7.  At 6'11", he plays like a wing, and is still learning how.  Pick 10 was most likely too high for Jones, as he has a lot of developing still to do.  If OKC can get him to reach his potential, though, he has a chance to be a very good player in the NBA, potentially as a starter.  Still a fantastic pick at 28 for OKC.
11.  Jeremy Lamb (12)- Part of the James Harden trade.  I thought Lamb would get minutes in OKC, but he has not.  In the D-League (11games, 36mpg), he has averaged 21.5/5.5, which are solid numbers.  He needs to get stronger still, and show better consistency when shooting the ball, which was supposed to be one of his biggest strengths.  Lamb has lots of potential still, defensively especially due to his long wing-span.  Expect him (and Jones too) to receive more minutes next year at the 2, especially if Kevin Martin isn't retained.
12. Austin Rivers (10)- I had him ranked lower than he went, but it looks like I had him too high as well.  He has been horrific for the Hornets, putting up a WAR at nearly -7.0.  That seems like the definition of hurting his team.  Unlike players in this column already mentioned, Rivers is getting 24mpg.  His passing needs to improve a lot, and his shooting has been dreadful.  Over his last 10 games, he is shooting a dismal 21% from the field, including 3/13 from 3 point range.  Thus far he looked like a major reach in the lottery, though most everyone had him rated around 10-15.
13. Terrence Jones (18)- Jones hasn't had a whole lot of opportunity in Houston:  The land of combo-forwards.  Stuck behind Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris, Jones has only appeared in 11 games for Houston, and zero since a couple of garbage time outings in the middle of December.  His D-League stats have been very good.  He is averaging 19 and 11 while shooting a decent percentage.  If Houston makes a move for another good player, Patterson could be moved which will make room for Jones.  Jones will be a useful player in the NBA, whether as a starter or first guy or two off the bench.
14. Kendall Marshall (13)- Marshall hasn't had much playing time either.  Stuck behind Dragic and Telfair on the depth chart, he has played nine games in the developmental league, where he is averaging nearly 10 points and 8 assists per game.  With the Suns out of the playoff picture, I would expect to see more of Marshall relatively soon at the expense of Telfair.  The Suns would be foolish not to give their first round pick NBA minutes at this point.
15. Tony Wroten (25)- I promise I am not a broken record by saying this, but Wroten hasn't had much run either.  He played well for the team in their blowout loss to the Clippers on Monday (though he did not shoot well), but he has played only 24 minutes all season (14 came Monday).  In the D-League, Wroten has scored the ball well, but only averages 3 assists per game.  He had huge potential coming into the league, but is failing to impress in Memphis.  Still young, Wroten has potential, and he was a good risk at 25.
16. Terrence Ross (8)- I was apparently lower on Ross then the Raptors, who surprised me with their selection.  Ross has been better than Lamb and Rivers thus far, though on a bad Raptors squad.  He scores the ball well, though sometimes inefficient.  Ross plays 17mpg, and scores 6pts and gets 2 boards a game.  He has achieved more than some players above him on this list, but I still think he was a reach at 8.
17. Jared Sullinger (21)- He slid due to injuries as well.  Playing nearly 20 minutes a game, he is scoring 6 and and getting 6 rebounds per game.  He is exactly the role player the Celtics needed.  He isn't a great athlete, and that was known pre-draft, but he has found his niche.  He had a grade that his ceiling was an ok starter, which still seems about right.  There are lots of teams who took other players who could use Sullinger about now.
18. Meyers Leonard (11)- Portland's second lottery pick, he is a project.  He is a very good athlete with lots of potential, but he is very raw.  Before his ankle injury, he was averaging almost 5 points and 3 and a half rebounds per game.  He has moments of brilliance and moments of stupidity.  Given his athleticism he could develop into a similar player as JaVale McGee.  Let's hope he winds up being smarter.  18 may have been too low on my board for Leonard.
19. Tyler Zeller (17)- Zeller was traded to Cleveland on draft day, where he has been the back-up to Varejao.  Zeller gets 27mpg, much more than most rookies on this list, and he scores 8 points to nearly 6 rebounds per game, which are solid, but don't quite match up to the per-minute stats of posts above him on this list, such as John Henson.  His efficiency rating is only 10.48, which places him well below league average.  With Varejao out due to injury, Zeller has a good chance to prove he can be a starter, and prove Varejao can be expendable.  He has to do better given the opportunity, as he is shooting only 27% over his last 5 games.
20. Royce White (16)- What is there left to say about White?  His off-the-court concerns were much worse than everyone else imagined, and has not been handled well by either side.  If I were to make a bet, I would guess that White never plays in the NBA, which is a shame given his talent.  The Rockets should see if they can get ANYTHING for him, or release him.  Somebody tell Bill Simmons that his Celtics dodged a bullet here.
21. Evan Fournier (20)- Fournier is raw, but Denver knew this when they picked him.  He has shown flashes of a scorer, though he hasn't been very efficient thus far.  He is scoring 3 a game, and shooting better than expected from the outside.  Fournier won't be a star, but he will be a contributor on a good playoff team in Denver for at least the next couple years.  A good pick at 20.
22. Draymond Green (35)- The first player in my first round who slipped to round 2.  Green has shot terribly over the season, shooting only 30% in 14mpg.  He is rebounding well, at 3.6 per game.  The fast pace played by GS plays part of his struggles in my opinion.  He isn't a great fit for the Warriors, but his shooting percentage should rise, and he will have been a nice pick early in the second round.
23. Scott Machado (N/A)- I had Machado ranked higher than most, though most people were surprised when the Iona prospect went undrafted.  He signed with Houston, though was recently released to make way for Patrick Beverley.  He averaged 12/3/7 in the D-League, and didn't get much opportunity in Houston.  He has potential, and would be a good developmental PG for many teams (Blazers especially!).
24. Andrew Nicholson (19)- Nicholson has had a very good season for the young Magic.  Efficient, he is scoring 7 per game, while grabbing 3 rebounds in 15mpg.  I am slightly surprised he hasn't extended his range to the NBA 3 point line at all (not 1 attempt), but he is playing within is strengths, and is a good piece for the Magic to build upon.
25. Arnett Moultrie (27)- Moultrie hasn't performed very well this season.  He averaged 9.7 pts and 6 boards a game in the D-League, and has hardly received minutes at the NBA level.  He is a big guy who can defend and run the court.  He should get at least 3 of the 4 years of his rookie contract to prove he can be a solid role player.
26. Quincy Miller (38)- Miller underwhelmed at Baylor, yet declared for the draft anyways.  He slid to round 2 (and even went behind teammate Quincy Acy), and hasn't seen much floor action in the NBA.  In the D-League he averaged 14/10, though a very small sample size, as he's been riding the bench for the Nuggets.
27. Jared Cunningham (24)- Cunningham was traded to Dallas on draft day, and has primarily played in the D-League.  He looked ok in limited NBA action, though is buried deep on the depth chart.  He should have more opportunity next season.  He has averaged 18/3/3 in the D-League, though has struggled shooting the ball.  He has to improve his shot to get rotation minutes next year.
28. Marquis Teague (29)- Part of the dominant Kentucky squad last year, Teague was the last of the 4 wildcats taken in round 1.  Teague can't shoot, which limits his playing time under Thibodeau, but, he has still received 8mpg.  His stats don't stand out, but he is still a very good athlete.  Should get more minutes next year.
29. John Jenkins (23)- Jenkins can shoot the ball very well, as evidenced by his 47% 3 point percentage.  He is scoring 4 a game in 10mpg, with limited efficiency, though his primary role is outside shooting.  He could wind up being in a similar role as Kyle Korver of Anthony Morrow (all are teammates).
30. Fab Melo (22)- He hasn't appeared yet for the Celtics, but averaged 10.6 and almost 7 reb in the D-League.  He is extremely raw, and most likely will face a Dexter Pittman like career path.  A top 30 grade was most likely too generous.

Various 2nd round picks (and first rounders who I gave a lower grade), have played well at times too.
Among them are (my ranking in parenthesis):
Moe Harkless (31)
Will Barton (32)
Jeff Taylor (34)
Jae Crowder (41)
Festus Ezeli (45)

Overall, the draft hasn't had the initial impact many (myself included) expected.  However, there are still lots of players with tremendous potential to help NBA teams over the next few years at the minimum.  It takes a few years to truly evaluate a draft class, so stay tuned for continued monitoring of their progress.