Thursday, January 10, 2013

Blazers (19-15) vs. Miami (23-10)

The Blazers are only 4.5 games behind Miami.  They're also 4.5 games ahead of the Lakers.  The two teams who experts everywhere picked to make the finals now find their respective teams in very different places.  Miami sits at the top of the East, and can likely coast the rest of the season to at least a top 3 seed.  The Lakers on the other hand sit in 11th place, and face an uphill battle to even make the playoffs.  ESPN's analysts are not very concerned that the Lakers would miss the playoffs, seemingly ignoring past indicators that should be a giant red flag for the Kobe-led team.  Sitting in the middle of the 2 supposed super-teams, are the Portland Trailblazers.   Exceeding expectations, the Blazers currently sit in 8th place, a game and a half ahead of the Jazz.  Aldridge has been playing well, averaging 20.6 points per game, with an increasing rebound rate and field goal percentage.  It will take a strong game from him, potentially being defended by LeBron James, to help Portland win tonight at the Rose Garden.

Keys to the game:
  1. LaMarcus Aldridge gets 20/10- As I said before, Aldridge must have a big game.  If Miami ever sticks players like Joel Anthony, Rashard Lewis, Udonis Haslem, or even Chris Bosh on Lamarcus, he should have no difficulties scoring the ball.  He needs around 18-20 shots tonight.
  2. Less than 10 turnovers- Miami excels in transition.  By taking care of the ball, the Blazers can limit fastbreak opportunities for the Heat, and keep this game close.
  3. Make 11 threes- I admit this seems like a lot, though in reality it is only 3 above the team's season average (8.2 per game).  Portland might struggle with cutting in the half-court, and making 3 after 3 will help spread out the lane and neutralize Miami's good help defense.
This game will not be easy to win, as Miami is still the favorite to win it all.  The Rose Garden will have to be loud.  If we accomplish these keys to the game, the Blazers will have a great chance at beating Miami.

Prediction:  Blazers 103 Miami 98

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