Sunday, December 23, 2012

College Basketball Notes- Pre-Christmas Week

Merry Christmas to all!  It has been a busy week in college basketball, filled with quite a few of the top unbeaten programs going down.  Some players have stepped up in big ways, and some teams could be looking at rises in the rankings.

-As Indiana and Syracuse lose, Duke and Michigan take the top two spots in the poll.  Both teams are incredibly balanced, and excel and both ends of the ball.  If I were to pick a number one now, it would be Duke, as they have beat 3 top 5 teams thus far, to only one ranked team that Michigan has taken down (A good NC State team.)  Both teams have potential to run very long undefeated streaks,  but neither team will be able to pull of an undefeated regular season.  For Michigan, Trey Burke is the best college PG in the country.

-After a slow start, UCLA looks poised to contend for the PAC 12 title with Arizona.  The freshman trio of Shabazz Muhammad, Jordan Adams, and Kyle Anderson plays very well together.  Muhammad is a deadly scorer with a relentless motor.  He is still number 1 on my big board for the 2013 NBA Draft.  Adams is explosive, and a great penetrator and shooter.  Anderson gets it done in a variety of ways, and is the best playmaker on the roster.  While Drew is averaging over 8 assists a game, the Bruin offense looks much better when run through Anderson.  I have high expectations for this UCLA squad.

-At the beginning of the season, I rated NC State above Duke and North Carolina as my pick to win the ACC.  While the expectations have slipped some, this is still a dangerous team that no one will want to face in March.  With exceptional balance, NC State has one of the top offenses in the country.  Lorenzo Brown has been solid as a point guard, helping keep his draft stock in the late first-early second range.  CJ Leslie has also been incredible.  On Saturday he scored 33 points, and could still be an ACC player of the year candidate.  He is an outside jump shot away from being a lottery pick.  Keep an eye on this team.

-Butler and Virginia Commonwealth have looked very impressive since their final four matchup.  It is foolish to ever count out Shaka Smart or Brad Stevens in any game.  Both teams look like they could contend for the A-10 title, and, both teams will be tough outs in the tournament.  Rotnei Clark, at times, has questionable shot selection, but his release is super quick and he is one of the top shooters in the country.  The defense and transition game played by VCU is tough to beat.  It will take a very good point guard on the court to navigate through it expertly.

-Ben McLemore has been sensational.  Against Ohio State, he was the best player on the court, scoring at will at times.  He is super versatile, and as important to Kansas offensively as Withey is defensively.  Elijah Johnson has not had his breakout season as anticipated, mainly due to the emergence of the redshirt freshman McLemore.  Instead Johnson is essentially a role player, and a fringe draft pick at all at this point.  Releford has been dependable as well.

Notable Players From the Week:
-Jack Cooley/Notre Dame- Maybe I'm seeing double but Cooley is essentially a Harangody clone.
-Roosevelt Jones/Butler- At only 6'4", he showed against Indiana he is one of the toughest players in the country.  ESPN recently listed him on their "all-toughness" team as well.
-Erick Green/Virginia Tech- Has not been a fluke.  Scores efficiently and in high quantities.  If he can develop some more guard skills, he could land in the late first round in June.
-Michael Carter Williams/Syracuse- It's almost Christmas and he is averaging 10 apg.  I am impressed.  He is a 3 point jump shot away from being a top 5 pick.
-Arsalan Kazemi/Oregon- The Iran native has been relentless on the rebounds, not losing a step since his transfer from Rice.  Not sure he has pro potential, but he is the heart of a tournament contending Oregon Team.
-Eric Moreland/Oregon State- Up the highway 30 miles is another relentless rebounder in Moreland.  Moreland projects as a pro, though, as he has a freakish wingspan and is a fantastic shot blocker.  If he develops an outside jump shot he could be a first round pick in 2014.
-Doug McDermott/Creighton, Isaiah Canaan/Murray State, and CJ McCollum/Lehigh.  The 3 most important players in the country to their teams.  All are sensational college basketball players, and all 3 should eventually make it to the NBA.  McCollum is the best prospect, though is a tweener between a 1 and a 2.  Worst case scenario, he could be a scoring 6th man.  Canaan projects as a back-up at the next level, though his stock could easily rise, though any team (Including my Blazers) would love to have Canaan providing some instant offense off the bench.  Players like McDermott have struggled to find success in the pros.  What helps McDermott will be his ability to guard 3's.  If he can consistently provide at least average defense, he will find himself in a rotation.  He reminds me of more fluid Luke Babbitt with better guard skills

Oh and the Blazers are above .500.  At the beginning of the season I would not have guessed this.  I knew Lillard would be awesome, as he graded as a future All-Star, but I did not expect him to be This good, This soon.  He has been phenomenal.  Aldridge has steadily become the player we expected him to be.  He has been connecting on more jump shots, and has been better attacking during our win streak.  Batum and Matthews have looked impressive over the course of the season, and Matthews should play increased minutes tonight against Sacramento as he continues to heal his hip flexor strain.  Oh and JJ Hickson has been a MONSTER.  He is averaging over 16 points and 14 rebounds over the last few games.  He looks like a player who deserves a multiyear extension in June if he can continue his impressive numbers.

Keys for Tonight's game vs. Sacramento:
-Score 45 points in the paint:  SAC is without Cousins.  Aldridge should be able to score on both Thompson and Robinson, and Hickson should continue his double double trend, finding putbacks in the process.
-Shoot 40% from 3:  Sacramento can score in bursts, and, though their record does not indicate this, they have stuck around in some games due to their streaky scoring.  If Portland scores consistentyly and efficiently from beyond the arc, a late run by Sacramento will not be as threatening.
-Lillard scores 25:  Sacramento's point guards are better offensive players than defensive players.  While Brooks is known for his quickness, he can be a lazy defender.  Look for Lillard to score with his step back, drives and quick ball handling.

GO Blazers!!!

@ZRey12

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