Saturday, July 27, 2013

Too Early College Football Top 25

College football media days have commenced.  Doesn't this officially mean that college football is upon us?  Here are my initial top 25 rankings going into the season:

  1. Alabama- The defending champs return their QB and have the potential to have many All-Americans next year.  This is the team to beat.
  2. LSU- I'll say this- LSU's offense may still be a mess.  The QB situation is hardly fluid, and their top rusher has been indefinitely suspended.  In the SEC, defense wins games, and LSU has the potential to be the best.  Expect lots of 14-10 finishes, but a 10 win season is probable.
  3. Ohio State- Braxton Miller returns for Urban Meyer- a player who could win the Heisman.  The Big10 is hardly dominant next year, and the Buckeyes should wind up a top 5 team.
  4. Oregon- The Ducks lost Chip Kelly, but his replacement was groomed to take over.  The time is now, and there is none better than with Heisman contender Marcus Mariota.  The Ducks will score, but can they defend?
  5. Stanford- Stanford could easily win the PAC-12.  Hogan is a best at the QB spot, and the team returns starters all over the place.  An Alabama/Stanford showdown is very possible.
  6. Clemson- Another Heisman contender, Tajh Boyd, leads a Clemson squad that should win the ACC.  Again, the question mark here is on the defensive end.  Can the handle the pressure?
  7. Louisville- I think Louisville could easily go 12-0 in a weak Big East.  Teddy Bridgewater is the likely #1 pick next year, and a big season for him could push the Cardinals higher than fans may expect.
  8.  South Carolina- This defense is just as good as LSU's, and potentially Alabama.  Clowney is the top pick in the next draft- no questions asked.
  9.  Georgia- I think Aaron Murray will lead this team to a solid finish after a somewhat disappointing 2012 season.  This is a potent offense in a defensively strong SEC.
  10.  Florida- Florida rates at 5th in the SEC, but are still capable of contending for a BCS bowl.  The big concerns here surround the QBs.
  11.  USC- This could be much too high or too low.  Lane Kiffin needs a stellar season to keep his job, and no longer has a top QB prospect.  Marquise Lee should be the country's WR of the year.
  12.  Fresno State- Ahh!  My sleeper team for a non-BCS conference.  Derek Carr is an experienced QB who will lead the Bulldogs to a BCS game.  11-1 not out of the question.
  13.  Arizona State- Arizona State could win the Pac-12 south.  Kelly is a solid dual threat QB who has intriguing options around him.  Sutton could be the best DT in the nation.
  14.  Texas A&M- Can Johnny Manziel repeat his Heisman performance.  Forgetting all of the hoopla that has surrounded his off-field antics, this is still a good team on both sides of the ball.  They just need to make sure Manziel's mind is right.
  15.  Michigan- No Denard Robinson?  No problem.  Gardner could lead this team to a Big-Ten title game, and, Brady Hoke has rebuilt this program admirably.
  16.  Notre Dame- After their QB in Golson was revealed to be academically ineligible, the Fighting Irish are in lots of trouble.  Given their soft schedule, I think 9 wins is realistic.
  17.  Oklahoma State- Oklahoma State was the Big-12 media pick, but I see the Big-12 having a down year.  Oklahoma State has potential to be a ten win team.
  18.  Florida State- Florida State has been getting top recruits, but I think next year is the more likely breakout year.  With so many young pieces, I think they show flashes of brilliance, and make plays that make you cover your eyes.
  19.  Oklahoma- Oklahoma has talent, but not in the way that makes you super excited.  This is a quality bowl team, but do not expect anything extraordinary from Bob Stoops this year.
  20.  Kent State- Want an under the radar Heisman favorite for this year?  Dri Archer is a combo RB/WR who may be the fastest player in the country.  He averaged ~10 yards per carry last year, and should be even stronger this year.  I like his chances.
  21.  Miami (FL)- No more Jacory Harris, but that may be for the better.  Miami, like Florida State, is young at important positions, but has lots of raw talent.  This team could wind up as a top 15 team.
  22.  TCU- In a down Big-12, TCU will be solid as usual.  They could easily steal the league title and wind up in a BCS bowl.  10 wins won't be easy, but it isn't out of reach for the Horned Frogs.
  23.  UCLA- Jim Mora has done an exceptional job with this program, and has a great defense to go with an emerging offense.  If the QB situation improves from last year, they will, again, be the best team in Los Angeles.
  24.  Wisconsin- Losing Bret Bielema hurts, but he left a program with a lot of talent.  Monte Ball is gone, but James White could break out as a Heisman contender in his own right.  Expect more of the same from Wisconsin and a 8-9 win season.
  25.  San Jose State- David Fales is a potential first round pick at QB, and could lead his Spartans to admirable success.  The season will revolve around his development, most likely for better and not worse.
A few others to watch out for:   Cincinnati, , Mississippi State, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, Washington, TCU

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Fantasy Football Preview

In preseason, everyone's logic sounds good for why a particular player will break out in fantasy football.  Chris Johnson fans can make a compelling case every year- but do you really want to draft Chris Johnson?  If you have an intuition about a player- take him with no qualms, as long as he isn't a major reach where you take him.  For example, you may think Geno Smith breaks out at QB, but that doesn't mean you take him in the 5th round (or at all...  this was an extreme example.)  You hear fantasy football talking heads always discussing strategies regarding RB vs. QB in the first round, with occasional WRs thrown in.  Don't get too caught up in this, as both picks have their advantages and disadvantages.  If you take the best players available- you cannot miss.  Here are three factors I tend to look a lot at when drafting my team:

1.  Opportunity- Quite simply, how much will this player have the ball?  If a player averages 1 yard less per carry, but gets 100 more carries, you may want to take the less explosive player.  If a player is in a position to breakout, that is a good gamble to take.

2.  Past Production- Previous year stats matter.  For RBs I look at yards per carry and TDs- as they usually indicate who gets red zone touches.  For WRs/TEs I look at targets, catches and yards per catch.  For QBs, I look at players who do not turn the ball over, and can turn red zone attempts into TDs on their own.

3.  Age- Young players have better chances to breakout- but don't mistake this for drafting all rookies.  Players with some experience, but with room to grow, are the best picks to make.

Here is a list of players who should be highly considered for your team:

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers is still the safest best as a fantasy QB.  Draft him and move on with no regrets if you like QBs in round one.

Andrew Luck- Luck is my sleeper pick (somewhat) to breakout in fantasy this year.  He could put up Drew Brees-esque numbers in Indianapolis.

Russell Wilson- Wilson is incredibly efficient, and can score in the red zone with both his arm and legs.  He will consistently score 15-20 points, and you won't have to spend a high pick on him.

Kirk Cousins- As a late round pick, take Cousins.  Do you really trust RGIII to make it through the year?  I don't.  Cousins can provide quality points late in the season.

Others:  Brady, Manning Brees- the usual trio 

Running Backs

Jamaal Charles- Charles could easily wind up the top back this year.  He can run for yards after contact, and has breakaway speed.  Alex Smith is unlikely to throw 30 times a game, so Charles should maintain his workload under Andy Reid.

Adrian Peterson- MVP! MVP!  Peterson had a stellar year last year- one that fantasy owners will drool for this year.  His numbers will be elite, but don't expect the same level of production as last year.  But 1700 yards could be a realistic number he could hit, and still lead all backs.

Doug Martin- Sources show that Greg Schiano may not trust Josh Freeman- as he drafted Mike Glennon and hasn't shown inititiave in extending him.  Enter Martin, who is poised to get many carries.  Without a legitimate backup, he could lead the league in carries.

Chris Ivory- I think Ivory is poised for a breakout year.  1000 yards and 8 touchdowns could happen.  Who else are the Jets going to give the ball to?  Sanchez?  Geno?  Look at Ivory to have a nice season for a back not picked in the first 5 rounds.

Others:  Lynch, Spiller/Jackson, Ballard

Wide Receivers:

Calvin Johnson- Another obvious choice for a first round pick.  He broke lots of records last year, and is poised to put up similar numbers.  Johnson at number 1 overall is a very reasonable pick.

Randall Cobb- Cobb is the new Percy Harvin, and playing with Aaron Rodgers means he will have reliable balls to catch.  He has incredible speed as well.

Danny Amendola- This is not to say he can replace Wes Welker's production adequately, but Tom Brady has to throw to someone.  He is the top guy on a bad receiving corps, and should see lots of targets come his way.  He may have another injury, or be constantly covered by the top CB, but he is worth a pick in rounds 6-8.

Mike Wallace- The Dolphins prime addition should see deep ball after deep ball come his way.  In a PPR league, Wallace may not be a great choice, but he could conceivably lead the league in 100-yd receiving games.

Others:  TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall, AJ Green

Tight Ends:

Rob Gronkowski/Vernon Davis- TE production is all about red zone production.  These two are the only ones I would go above and beyond to draft.  They could lead to a playoff berth.

Other:  Greg Olsen, Jermaine Gresham

Stay tuned for a who to avoid column!

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

The State of The Blazers- Part 2

Barring a massive trade, the Blazers' offseason has essentially ended, with the only decision regarding Terell Harris' non-guaranteed contract.  Over the last month, the team acquired CJ McCollum and Allen Crabbe through the draft, Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez via trades, and Dorell Wright and Earl Watson as free agents.  Going into the offseason, the biggest need for this team was depth- outside of a legitimate option to start at center.  If depth was our goal, we succeeded.  Our depth chart now looks like this:
1 Lillard/McCollum/Watson
2 Matthews/Crabbe/Barton/Harris (?)
3 Batum/Wright/Claver
4 Aldridge/Robinson/Freeland
5 Lopez/Leonard

On a team last year where Luke Babbitt was our most successful reserve, upgrading all of the bench spots was of utmost importance.  Next season, the team is well positioned to make a run for a playoff berth.  Lillard will be a season more experienced, and has potential to be a 20 point scorer.  Matthews and Batum are a great combo on the wing- when healthy, which is a big assumption at this point in their careers.  Aldridge is the current face of the franchise, and is a player who will score 20+ while adding between 8 and 9 rebounds.  This is the season to prove Portland can flourish long term, and ideally ink Aldridge to a sub-maximal extension.  Here are my concerns:

1) Rebounding- Let me be clear:  For what we gave up to get Robin Lopez, he is a tremendous coup.  I am increasingly concerned over a frontcourt of Aldridge and Lopez on the glass.  Lopez put up pedestrian rebounding numbers in New Orleans- quite similarly to his brother in Brooklyn.  For this duo to be successful, both players have to make a commitment on the glass.  Hickson had his flaws, but he was a rebounding machine.  Offensively, Lopez is limited.  Expect to see offensive sets closer to what Terry Stotts ran with Hickson, with Aldridge at the left block or high post with Lopez on the opposite short corner.  Lopez is not a skilled passer, which leaves potential high-low looks out of the equation for now.  The real impact of this frontcourt will come with Lopez's increased size over Hickson- at 7 feet.  Aldridge has long campaigned for a 7 footer, and he finally received his wish.

2) Shooting Guard- I love Wesley Matthews- he plays with tenacity as a 3 & D player, and is the leader of this team in a vocal sense.  Last season, his production dipped some, and his efficiency dipped even more.  His PER was below average at the end of last season- a stat that must change this next season.  His TO% needs to decrease as well.  Behind him, two young players in Crabbe and Barton have failed to impress in summer league.  Crabbe is a gifted shooter who has not earned many looks thus far, causing me to question his NBA readiness.  I had him graded as a first round prospect, and am still elated to have grabbed him in the second round, but I expected a better performance thus far.  Barton has looked like a shoot first, second and third player at summer league thus far, with his play characterized by a series of off-balance contested shots.  Last season, he ended the year with a series of good games- a few of which he scored over 15.  In these games, he let the game come to him, rather than force up shots that make the coaching staff (and myself!) cringe.  I am still nervous when he gets the ball.  Will he have his 3rd year option declined?  The depth Neil Olshey has put together at the off-guard spot has potential, but overall efficiency and IQ of the group needs to improve.  Spikes in eFG% and a decrease in TO% will go a long way in helping this cause.

3) Was it all enough?  Houston added Dwight Howard without giving up their core.  Golden State purged 23 million dollars worth of expiring contracts to sign Andre Iguodala.  Oklahoma City, Memphis and the Clippers will all be contenders as well.  San Antonio has aged another year- and I expect to see signs of aging more evident, but they will not go from the Western Conference Finals to missing a playoff berth.  This leaves only 2 playoff spots remaining.  New Orleans added Jrue Holiday.  Kevin Love is healthy again for Minnesota.  Denver lost Iggy, but is still a deep team.  The Lakers are without Kobe, but for how long?  Making a 7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference is a daunting task after being out of the picture for much of the past decade.  Lopez, Robinson, McCollum and Wright all drastically improve our depth- there is no question to this.  Is it truly enough to push us into the top 8?  Last season, we stood near .500 after 50 games, before struggling (tanking...) to the finish line.  Ideally, these new additions will lead to a decrease in minutes for Aldridge, Batum and Lillard- who led the league in minutes- and cause less fatigue at the end of the grueling 82 game season.  Would Nikola Pekovic have helped more?  How about Paul Millsap?  Probably.  The team we see now will win between 40 and 50 games.  We will contend for the 8th spot- but will it be enough?  If I were to predict the Western Conference Standings at the end of the regular season, it would look like this (A ridiculous notion- I know). 
1 LA Clippers
2 Oklahoma City
3 Golden State
4 Houston
5 Memphis
6 San Antonio
7 Portland
8 Minnesota

9 Denver
10 New Orleans
11 LA Lakers
12 Sacramento
13 Utah
14 Dallas
15 Phoenix

What can I say?  I am optimistic.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

NBA Offseason Analysis

I haven't posted since June 30.  Since then SOOOOOOO much has happened regarding free agency and player movement.  I have been completing a list of my analysis of each move.  This is a long one- but well worth it.  Here we go (Cue the Alan Parsons Project music!)

June 27- Draft Day

Brooklyn: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry
Boston: Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries,  MarShon Brooks, Keith Bogans, Kris Joseph, 3 future 1st round picks.

Analysis:  I like the move for Brooklyn.  They have an owner who isn't afraid of the luxury tax, and is doing everything in his power to help the team compete.  He is kind of like the anti-Donald Sterling.  A starting 5 of Deron Williams/Joe Johnson/Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett/Brook Lopez is expensive, but has the potential to compete with every team in the East.  They are a top 3 team in the east, and could rise to the top if Deron Williams can return to his old form.  I am torn by aspects of the trade for Boston.  They needed to go into rebuilding mode, and acquired some good pieces for the future.  The best coup is the three draft choices, though they are likely to be in the 20s if Brooklyn stays in prominence.  Humphries, Brooks, Bogans and Joseph are are expendable expiring deals who can be used to acquire more talent.  The worst part of this deal for Boston is Gerald Wallace.  He has 3 years and 30 million dollars remaining on his deal- a terrible contract.  A rebuilding team needs to unload contracts, not take more in.  I think they would have been better off continuing to find better value for the two players that shaped their franchise for the past half-decade.  It could be a long 5 years for Celtics fans.  GRADE: Brooklyn: B, Boston B

Memphis: Kosta Koufos
Denver: Darrell Arthur, Draft Rights to Joeffrey Lauvergne

Analysis:  This trade was made so JaVale McGee could be inserted into a starting role in Denver, so they traded incumbant Koufos for perennial backup Darrell Arthur.  I'd rather have Koufos myself, but this trade gives a capable player to both teams.  Moving along...  GRADE: Memphis: B-, Denver C+

June 30:

Blazers:  Thomas Robinson
Rockets: Draft Rights to Kostas Papanikolaou, Draft Rights to Marko Todorovic, 2 future 2nd round picks.

Analysis:  The Blazers acquired Robinson for essentially nothing.  They gave up a few stashed players for the 5th pick last year- and a guy I had rated 3rd in the draft.  So much about the NBA Draft is about fit and talent.  Would Darko Milicic have had a better career if drafted by Miami or Toronto?  Probably.  Given the state of the Kings locker room, I am not surprised Robinson struggled.  He will earn ~15 mpg for Portland and should give the team needed post scoring off the bench, and rebound effectively.  I think he can play stretches alongside Aldridge.  His cap number is a little high given his production thus far, but I love this deal for Portland.  Houston didn't get value back, but the cap space they cleared allowed them to eventually sign Dwight Howard.  All's well that ends well.  GRADE:  Blazers B+, Rockets A

Knicks: Andrea Bargnani
Raptors:  Steve Novak, Marcus Camby, future 1st round pick

Analysis:  The Raptors' biggest coup this offseason was Uriji, who has been AMAZING in his short tenure as the GM of the team.  I expected them to give Bargnani away- that is if any team would take him.  Admittedly, he is a good shooter, and can help any team as a stretch 4.  He is a bad rebounder and defender though.  Sean Highkin tweeted this last week that the Knicks should put up a banner of an opposing player dunking- to represent the time when Bargnani and Stoudemire are on the court together.  I think the Knicks messed up in this one.  For the Raptors, they get a future 1st round pick to add more talent, one of the best shooters in the game in Novak, and a capable veteran big man in Camby who will most likely be bought out.  Who is to say Novak can't do the things Bargnani did in Toronto last year.  It seems like a far-fetched claim at first notion, but is it? GRADE: Raptors: A, Knicks: D-

July 1:

Clippers Re-sign Chris Paul- 5 years 107 million-  The Clips got their man, and Paul got his money.  The fit is still perfect, and the relationship will continue to blossom.  As long as Donald Sterling stays out of the way, the Clippers, and NOT THE LAKERS, will be the marquee team in Los Angeles for the next 5 years.  GRADE: A

July 2: 

Bulls sign Mike Dunleavy- 2 years 6 million- Dunleavy is an underrated role player who can play Marco Belinelli's role better.  He has a high motor, and is exactly the type of player a healthy Derrick Rose needs around him.  He could be a spot starter.  GRADE: B

Nets resign Andray Blatche- 1 year 1.4 million- Given the cap issues the Nets are facing, Blatche is good value at this price.  He has his flaws, but can score off the bench.  A forward rotation involving Blatche, Evans and Teletovic off the bench will help hold leads when the starters rest. GRADE: B-

Wizards sign Eric Maynor- 2 years ~ 4 million- Maynor was expendable for Portland when CJ McCollum was drafted.  He finds a home as John Wall's backup here.  Washington could do a lot worse, and he provides good insurance in case Wall misses time again.  *For the record- Washington should give Wall a max extension.  Trust me on this one.* GRADE: B-

Pacers sign CJ Watson-  2 years ~ 4 million- Watson is a capable scoring guard to backup George Hill.  He showed flashes of brilliance as a backup for Rose, but was a bit of a ghost last year in Brooklyn.  He should be a good backup in Indiana.  10 points per game off the bench is not out of question. GRADE: B

Bulls resign Nazr Mohammed- 1 year, min- Mohammed is a 5th big man at this point in his career.  I like the move for Chicago, but they need to add a better backup big man to Joakim Noah.  Have to think Dieng or Withey would have been better than Snell on draft night... GRADE: C+

Grizzlies resign Tony Allen- 4 years 20 million- Allen is widely considered the best perimeter defender in the NBA.  He is a good athlete, but a below average perimeter shooter and ball handler.  At age 31, I question this move for Memphis, as he will be overpaid in year 3 and 4 of this deal.  For a team trying to stay in the upper echelon of the Western Conference, they could do a lot worse. GRADE: B-

Grizzlies resign Jon Leuer- 3 years 3 million-  Leuer adds needed shooting for a Memphis team that has a lot of slashers.  Quincy Pondexter was their most feared three point shooter last postseason- a player who isn't truly considered a three point specialist.  Leuer could impact a game like Matt Bonner in San Antonio.  I like this move a lot given the price paid. GRADE: B+

Timberwolves resign Chase Budinger- 3 years 16 million-  I have to think Minnesota over payed here.  Who else was going to realistically give Budinger 5+ million per year?  They now have Martin, Budinger, Muhammad and Shved to handle the wing spots.  He is a good athlete and shooter who fits a need, but why commit so much money here? GRADE: D

Timberwolves sign Kevin Martin- 4 years 28 million-  I like Martin's game a lot.  He is efficient, a good shooter, and an average defender.  That said he is already 30, and may have trouble getting his own shot off at age 33.  This move was made for the present, but the team could be in trouble with these last few contracts if Love decides to test the market in 2 years. GRADE: C

Spurs resign Tiago Splitter- 4 years 36 million- Analysts everywhere will criticize this deal because of his lack of production in the NBA finals.  He did not play his best, and it damaged his value.  That said, he was a key starter for a team that won 58 games last year, and averaged an efficient 10+ points and 6+ rebounds.  Given the contracts other centers have received over the past few years, San Antonio did a nice job. GRADE: B

Wizards resign Martell Webster- 4 years 22 million-  Webster will be the sixth man in Washington- and an overpaid one at that.  He had one good season and the Wizards rewarded him handsomely.  I am not saying this is a bad signing, as he is a good shooter and defender who helps spread the court for Wall, but they did not need to give him nearly 6 million per year.  After his first big season in Portland, he was similarly rewarded, and did not prove his worth until last season.  I like Martell's game, but I have question marks about this deal. GRADE: C

Pacers resign David West- 3 years 36 million-  This match and deal makes a lot of sense, though the cost is a little on the high side.  West was of extreme importance in their playoff run, and his ability to defend Bosh, and James for stretches in the post, was what Indiana needed.  He is a good offensive player who fits well next to Hibbert.  Kevin Pritchard did well here. GRADE: A-

Clippers Get: JJ Redick, Jared Dudley
Suns Get:  Eric Bledsoe, Caron Butler
Bucks Get: 2 2nd round picks (1 from each team)

Analysis:  The Clippers get shooters who can stretch the floor next to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin.  The price paid to get these players was steep with Bledsoe heading to Phoenix, but the fits the have back help the team more now.  Redick was signed to a new deal (4 years 27 million) and should start at the 2 next to Paul.  Dudley should start at the 3, and is a good defender who can guard the best wing player on the other team.  He is not an excellent defender, but he does well enough.  They still have Crawford coming off the bench, and they drafted Reggie Bullock to backup the 2 and 3 spots.  The Clippers will be a competing team for the NBA title next year.  The Suns are rebuilding- that is no secret.  They get a great young point guard in Bledsoe who is likely the point guard of the future.  Quotes out of Phoenix involve excitement of Bledose and Dragic playing together, but this trade may indicate that Dragic is not in the team's long term plans.  He is a very good PG, and shooter, and is in the top half of starting PG's in the league.  He could fetch good value if traded.  I love this deal for Phoenix, as they only had to give up Dudley and a rd. 2 pick for Bledsoe and Butler's expiring deal.  The Bucks add a few rd. 2 picks as compensation for trading Redick, but they really messed up in the trade at the deadline last year when they traded Tobias Harris for him.  Typical Bucks management- they need a new vision in the front office.  *Prediction- Jennings gets overpaid by Milwaukee.  I know I am not in the minority here, but I am not sure any team would commit huge money to Jennings. GRADES: Clippers: B+, Suns: A-, Bucks: C-

July 3:

Spurs resign Manu Ginobili- 2 years 14 million-  Ginobili has been very important for San Antonio over the past decade, but was not the same player this past season.  I understand teams like to try to re-create the past, but RC Buford would have been smartest not holding onto nostalgia here.  Ginobili is not close to worth 7 million dollars this year or next, and will most likely be a similar deal to the one they gave Richard Jefferson, and then subsequently gave away.  I think the Spurs love Ginobili, as evidenced by this deal, but this deal does not help them get back to the NBA finals. GRADE: C

Wizards resign Garrett Temple- 1 year 900K- Temple is a solid 5th guard who can play spot minutes.  Not a bad choice given the cost. GRADE: B

Clippers: Doc Rivers
Celtics: 2015 first round pick

Analysis:  Rivers is the coach the Clippers needed and wanted.  He has a better PG to run his offense, one of the best shooters who can come off screens, and has athletic big men to dunk the ball with ease.  They give up a first round pick as compensation, but this pick will likely be in the low first round.  I am most surprised that Donald Sterling finally paid a coach. GRADE: Clippers: A, Celtics: A

Celtics sign Brad Stevens to 6 year 22 million dollar deal- WOW!  I was amazed by this deal- for good reasons.  Brad Stevens is a prodigy of a coach, and is the perfect choice to help rebuild this team.  He led Butler to two national championships against the odds, and has a roster with some intriguing players.  Rondo is Rondo- he knows what he is getting, game and attitude both.  Courtney Lee is a stellar 3 and D player, but is coming off a poor season.  Gerald Wallace will play hard, but is aging and has a game reliant on athleticism.  He doesn't have a great big man, but he didn't at Butler either.  Brad Stevens will be just fine, and will the the coach of the Celtics long after this contract expires.  I think he will end up being the next coach of USA basketball as well.  A+++ for this pick as head coach- nice job Danny Ainge. GRADE: A+++

Hawks resign Kyle Korver- 4 years 24 million- Korver was overpaid, but is a wonderful outside shooter.  Mike Budenholzer needs shooters, and Korver can run plays like what Ginobili and Danny Green ran last season.  I am not sure there is any player I would be more confident about when coming off a screen.  Is he worth 24 million?  Time will tell, but my gut says no. GRADE: C+

July 4:

Knicks resign JR Smith- 4 years 24.7 million- Smith is a high volume shooter and potentially deadly scorer.  He looks for his own shot first, second and third.  That said, he was exactly what the Knicks needed coming off the bench, and won the NBA sixth man of the year award last year.  I was not a huge fan of signing Smith to big money, but this contract is a good one for New York.  Considering that Korver got a similar contract, and Jose Calderon got more money, I have to commend the Knicks for this one.  He isn't a starter, and won't do much other than score, but he fits well.  I want to see him play alongside Shumpert some this year. GRADE: C+

Knicks resign Pablo Prigioni- 3 years 6 million- Prigioni was one of the best backup PGs in the league last year, and is signed here for a very reasonable amount.  If Felton gains more weight this summer and has a Portland-esque year, they would be in good hands with Prigioni, who was a better backup PG option than Jason Kidd last year. GRADE: B

Bobcats sign Al Jefferson- 3 years 41 million-  The Bobcats needed post scoring, and now have a very intriguing combo of Jefferson and Zeller.  I criticized the Zeller pick some on draft day, but I really like this pairing.  A starting 5 of Walker/Henderson (maybe)/Kidd-Gilchrist/Zeller and Jefferson is solid, and will help the Bobcats climb out of the cellar in the east.  They won't be a playoff team next year, but adding Jefferson truly helps this team.  Rich Cho has done well. GRADE: B+

Bobcats resign Josh McRoberts- 2 years 6 million- McRoberts is a capable backup 4, and can play a similar role as Hansbrough played for Indiana last year.  He is a good outside shooter and an average rebounder and defender.  For the price, they could have done much worse. GRADE: B-

Cavs sign Earl Clark- 2 years 9 million- Clark was overpaid, and I don't see the fit in Cleveland.  They just drafted a tweener number 1 (Bennett) and now paid another player who plays a similar position.  He had a very good month in LA, and has shown the promise to live up to this contract when given minutes.  With Bennett, Thompson, Miles and Gee already on the roster at the 3 and 4 spots, there won't be minutes to go around.  I like Clark a lot as a player, but this move just doesn't make sense. GRADE: C+

Spurs sign Marco Belinelli- 2 years 6 million- Belinelli is a good set shooter, but doesn't do much else.  The Spurs need shooting all over the place, especially if Gary Neal is not coming back.  That said, Belinelli provides the same thing as Bonner from the guard spot, and I think the money would have been better spent elsewhere.  20 million for Ginobili and Belinelli for the next two years?  I'd pass.  Gary Neal for the same money would have been better.  I am excited to see who winds up with Neal. GRADE: C+

Pelicans get: Tyreke Evans, Draft rights to Jeff Withey
Kings get: Greivis Vasquez, future rd. 2 pick (POR)
Blazers get: Robin Lopez, Terrell Harris 

Analysis:  The Pelicans are ready to pay Tyreke Evans 11 million per year over the next 4 years, and had to give up Greivis Vasquez to get him.  Evans now is part of a guard rotation involving Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon.  Even considering the knee issues Gordon has had, do you really want to pay Tyreke Evans 44 million dollars?  Adding Evans allows them to rest Gordon more than in the past, but Evans has not shown an ability to help a team win.  The big issue for New Orleans is still the center spot, as they had to give up Robin Lopez to Portland in the deal.  I like the move for Portland considering what they had to give up.  They essentially gave up 3 second round picks for Lopez- a steal.  The worst part of this deal for Portland involves the loss of cap space.  The team used have the space on Lopez, rather than taking a run at a bigger name at center.  Lopez gives Portland needed shot blocking and post defense, but is not a great rebounder.  Next to Aldridge, that may be an issue.  I actually like this deal quite a bit for Sacramento.  Evans may have been able to snag a bigger prize (in some eyes-not mine), but he was no longer in the franchise's long term plans given the addition of McLemore and the money owed to sixth man Marcus Thornton.  On a team with a bunch of me-first players, a pass first player like Vasquez will thrive.  He could get 10 assists per game next year- you heard it here first. GRADES: Pelicans: C+, Kings: A-, Blazers: B+

July 5:

Clippers resign Matt Barnes- 3 years 12 million- The Clippers added a solid defender in Dudley, but keep the better defender in Barnes as part of their wing rotation.  Barnes is not a very good offensive player, but is smart on the court.  He was a locker room issue in the past, but has thrived in Los Angeles.  He aids their future quite well. Grade: B-

Warriors sign Andre Iguodala- 4 years 48 million- This just in:  The Warriors are for real.  Iguodala is an upgrade over Barnes, who can slide into the 6th man role vacated by Jarrett Jack.  Iguodala upgrades the defensive backcourt significantly, and adds a partner for transition with Curry.  The Warriors could place in the top 3, or even win the west...  Iggy could have pushed them over the top. Grade: A

Jazz: Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson, Brandon Rush, 2014 & 2017 unprotected rd. 1 picks, 2 future 2nd round picks, cash
Warriors:  Kevin Murphy

Analysis:  The Jazz were paid handsomely for taking on 23 million dollars in expiring deals.  Biedrins may stick as a backup center to Enes Kanter, potentially gaining some of the form he has lost since his breakout season 6 years ago.  Jefferson is at the end of the line, and Rush is a shooter who should backup Gordon Hayward.  The big coup involves the two first round draft choices they get.  Next year's draft class is loaded, and the 2017 draft is far enough away that the pick could wind up higher than expected.  The Warriors get the non-guaranteed contract of Kevin Murphy, who could be waived, though he could be a useful 5th guard.  He can score well from the perimeter.  This trade was all about Iguodala, however, and GS got their prize. Grade: Jazz: A, Warriors: B

Rockets sign Dwight Howard- 4 years 88 million-  The final year is a player option.  The Rockets completed a signing of the best center on the market, and in the league, in Dwight Howard.  22 million per year is steep, but Houston is willing to pair him with James Harden to form the next big duo in the west.  Daryl Morey has done a phenomenal job of building this team- which should compete for home court advantage like the Warriors.  Houston had missed Yao Ming as one of the most dominating centers in the league, and now adds Howard who they should like just as much. Grade: A-

76ers: Royce White, Draft rights to Furkan Aldemir
Rockets: future rd. 2 pick

Analysis:  Oh how rocky White's tenure was in Houston.  He is technically still a rookie, as he did not appear in a game last year.  Only giving up a future pick, there is low risk associated with this deal for White, who has severe anxiety associated with travel and flying.  The Rockets were not supportive, according to White, and White was obstinate to a high degree, according to Houston.  A change of scenery was good for both partners.  On the downside is the loss of Aldemir, who was a solid addition as a second round pick last year.  Houston had to get rid of White though, and Philadelphia is taking very little risk for a good basketball player. Grades: 76ers: A, Rockets: C-

Pelicans resign Al-Farouq Aminu- 1 year 3.7 million-  Aminu is a low cost option who can fill the SF role in New Orleans.  He needs to keep improving his jump shot, but he has tremendous athleticism that aids his game.  He is dripping with potential but has not been able to tap into it yet.  At this point in his career, he has been a bust.  Maybe playing with better players will help justify this contract. Grade: B

Pacers sign Chris Copeland- 2 years 6 million-  Copeland was an old rookie last year who thrived as a three point shooter in Mike Woodson's offense.  For Indiana, he will come off the bench as a shooter at the three spot, though minutes may be hard to come by if Danny Granger is not traded.  Somewhat of a one trick pony, Copeland may have been overpaid here. Grade: B-

Mavericks sign Jose Calderon- 4 years 29 million-  Calderon is a terrific shooter, passer and ball handler who will likely start at the point for Dallas.  Where the confusion comes in is the additions of Devin Harris and Shane Larkin at the point guard spots as well.  Could this be another David Kahn consulting job?  He will thrive next to Nowitzki, and while he does not bring star power, he brings a consistency that Dallas will need to avoid finishing in the Western Conference cellar. Grade: B-

Bucks sign OJ Mayo- 3 years 24 million- The Bucks were desperate for some scoring from the backcourt to replace Ellis and, potentially, Jennings.  Mayo will never be a lead scorer for a top contender, but he is a versatile player who could look good next to the plethora of young bigs the Bucks can put next to him.  A starting 5 of Teague (possible), Mayo, Ilyasova, Henson and Sanders wouldn't be the end of the world.  Grade: B

July 6:

Pistons Sign Josh Smith- 4 years 56 million- Detroit will now start Smith, Monroe and Drummond in the front court.  Against teams like Miami, who tend to struggle with size, they could find success.  Smith is overpaid at this price, but who else could Detroit have persuaded to come to Detroit?  The Pistons finally could make another playoff appearance- and should this year.  Grade: B+

Hawks sign DeMarre Carroll- 2 years 5 million- Carroll is an energy guy without an elite skill.  A player of similar value could have been had on a minimum contract.  Undrafted FAs like Leslie, Carmichael or even Adonis Thomas could have provided similar value for less.  Grade: D+

Hawks sign Paul Millsap- 2 years 19 million- Would you rather pay Al Jefferson 3 years 41 million, or Millsap 2 years 19?  I think the Hawks hit a homerun here, and can pair him in their frontcourt with Horford, or play him at the 3 and go big with Horford at the 4, and Bebe at the 5 (should he come over).  Many teams have to look at this deal as a lost opportunity for them.  Grade: A+

Spurs sign Jeff Pendergraph- 2 years 4 million- Pendergraph entered the league as an injury prone 4th big man, and has stuck in the league.  He could be valuable to San Antonio for ten min a game as an athletic big man with a relentless motor.  It's hard not to like Pendergraph.  Grade: B+

Rockets resign Francisco Garcia- 2 years 2.6 million- Garcia had his team option declined, but was still resigned by Houston.  For 5 million less per year, the production level he will give matches well.  Morey makes another good move.  Grade: B+

Blazers sign Dorell Wright- 2 years 6 million- The Blazers had massive issues with their depth this last year.  Wright- a former 16 point scorer for Golden State- can be a 6th or 7th man off of the Blazer bench, and give needed 3 point shooting and can defend well too.  I am not sure he is the stretch 4 the team needed, but the value here is perfect.  Grade: B+

Blazers sign Earl Watson- 1 year, min- Watson is a smart veteran player who will not play much.  As a mentor, the team could have done much worse.  Grade: B

Rockets sign Omri Casspi- 2 years 2 million- I am not sure how Casspi fits after signing Garcia to a similar deal, but having shooters surrounding Howard is never a bad idea.  As a backup to Chandler Parsons, he could do well.  Grade: B-

Mavericks sign Devin Harris- 3 years 9 million- Vetoed due to a dislocated toe.  He will find another suiter. Grade: Inc.

Clippers sign Darren Collison- 2 years 3.8 million- Last time Collison had a breakout year, he was the backup for Chris Paul.  Collison is a good player who is one a hell of a steal contract here.  To replace Bledsoe, the Clippers found an awesome solution for a fraction of what he should cost.  Grade: A+

Cavs sign Jarrett Jack- 4 years 25 million- I read Jack described as the king of "no, no, no! ok, it went in" shots.  He was very important for the Warriors playoff run, and will be used similarly in Cleveland.  A nice pickup.  Grade: B

Kings sign Carl Landry- 4 years 26 million- I like Landry's game a lot.  But the Kings already have a logjam at the PF spot with Patrick Patterson and Jason Thompson already on the roster.  I criticized the moves they made for Thompson and Chuck Hayes a few years ago, and it seems the Kings are back on the same path.  I think they could have spent the money elsewhere.  Grade: C

July 7:

Nuggets sign JJ Hickson- 3 years 15 million- Hickson is solid value for this deal- as he averaged a double double in Portland last year- but he is added to a logjam in the frontcourt.  If he is going to backup both Faried and McGee he will help a lot, but if they expect him to play the 3 the Nuggets may find out the hard way that he is a post player (The rest of the league already knows this).  Grade: B-

Bucks sign Zaza Pachulia- 3 years 15.6 million- WOW!  Pachulia is added to the center rotation already involving Sanders and Udoh, and at a cost of over 5 million a year.  I thought he would get a deal slightly larger than the veteran's minimum, so I am shocked to see this contract added.  I think Hammond panicked.  Grade: D-

Bucks sign Carlos Delfino- 3 years 10 million- Delfino goes back to Milwaukee to fill the role of the departed Mbah A Moute.  Delfino is a good shooter and average defender who will help out the Bucks rotation.  I am not sure what the Bucks plan is at this point.  Grade: C+

Clippers resign Ryan Hollins- 1 year, min- Hollins is a good 5th big man who can provide energy and athletic putbacks.  Just have to hope he is not their backup center.  Grade: B

July 8:

Lakers sign Chris Kaman- 1 year, 3.2 million- After Howard walked, Kaman is not in the ballpark as a suitable replacement.  But who is?  Pau Gasol should be back to his usual role of dominating the paint for LA, and Kaman can work his magic in the mid range and offensive glass.  On a one year contract this cheap, Kaman provides a decent starting option.  That said, don't expect a playoff appearance from LA this year. Grade: B-


Warriors sign Marreese Speights- 3 years, 11 million- Carl Landry walked to the tune of more than 6 million per year.  Speights is a solid replacement who can efficiently score in the post and mid-range, as well as get rebounds.  I like this move a lot.  Grade: A-

Pistons resign Will Bynum- 2 years, 5.75 million- I am worried about the PG situation in Detroit- the only position truly holding them back from a playoff appearance.  Knight is average, but improving, and Bynum is a shoot first player.  I think Calderon would have been a better option.  Grade: C+

July 9:

Warriors sign Jermaine O'Neal- 1 year, 2 million- O'Neal had a great year as a backup center in Phoenix last year.  In Oakland, he probably finds himself behind Bogut and Ezeli on the depth chart, but given the injury history above him, he fits a need.  He is an upgrade over Biedrins.  Grade: B+

Warriors sign Toney Douglas- 1 year, 1.6 million- Douglas is a scoring combo guard who has struggled since his first year in the league.  He should be able to pick up some of the slack that Jarrett Jack's departure leaves.  Grade: B

Kings: Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
Bucks: 2 2nd round picks

Analysis:  The Kings bought Mbah A Moute for 2 2nd round picks.  Mbah A Moute fits in Sacramento as a defender- something many Kings players don't know.  The value was cheap.  Milwaukee is in need of fresh faces, and the arrival of Delfino made Mbah A Moute expendable.  They got decent value.  Grades: Kings- B, Bucks- B-

Lakers sign Jordan Farmar- 1 year, 1.3 million- Farmar left the NBA for a year, and is added back on the Lakers roster for next season.  He is a very capable backup PG who does a little of everything.  If Nash has injury problems again, Farmar could have a decent season and a bigger payday next offseason.  Grade: A-

Mavericks sign Wayne Ellington- 2 years, 5 million- Ellington is a good shooter who doesn't do a whole lot else.  He isn't a bad defender or athlete, but I feel like Anthony Morrow would have been a better choice here.  Grade: C

July 10:

Timberwolves acquire Corey Brewer in S&T- 3 years 15 million- I like Brewer.  He is a very good defender, and a decent shooter when he takes good shots.  Rick Adelman can work with him on his shot selection.  I would love this signing if they hadn't already committed 5+ million each to Budinger and Martin.  Grade: B

Pelicans sign Greg Stiemsma- 1 year, 2.7 million- Stiemsma is a good backup center who is as good as he'll ever be.  Behind Anthony Davis, or in a spot start, he could do very well. He rebounds, blocks shots and scores by the rim with a low usage rate.  I like the money spent here. Grade: A-

Rockets sign Reggie Williams- 2 year 5 million-  Another shooter to go around Howard.  Williams is very good with his feet set, especially from the corner.  He scores in bunches- he once led the NCAA- and could be James Harden's primary backup.  A nice move here.  Grade: B+

Heat resign Chris Andersen- 1 year, min- Given the Heat's cap woes, Andersen was about all they could offer last year.  After a good season and playoffs, the value they got him for again was unprecedented.  Look for Anderson to continue his hot play next to Bosh in the Heat frontcourt.  Grade: B+

Cavs sign Andrew Bynum- 2 years, 24 million- This is most likely the biggest risk in the offseason this year.  Bynum had a non-existant tenure in Philly (as far as most are concerned), and, if he can return to his old form, could be the best signing.  If not, the worst.  Time will tell.  Grade: Inc.

July 11:

Pistons sign Chauncey Billups- 2 years, 5 million- Does Billups have anything left in the tank?  From a leadership standpoint, he is awesome- could potentially coach one day.  As a backup guard for both spots, he will start the season well, but fade down the stretch.  Count me as skeptical.  Grade: C


Lakers sign Nick Young- 1 year, 1.3 million- Young struggled in Philadelphia, and is forced to take another one year deal.  This one is less lucrative, though he will have opportunities to score with Bryant sidelined with his torn Achilles.  The money spent here could find a steal.  Grade: B

Nets sign Andrei Kirilenko- 2 years, 6.4 million- Kirilenko declined a 10+ million dollar player option to leave Minnesota for some long term security.  Think he regrets that decision?  After his market was not as promising as he hoped, he inked a 2 year deal with Brooklyn.  He could be a 6th man behind the most expensive starting 5 in the league.  Grade: B (Kirilenko himself gets an F)

Timberwolves sign Ronny Turiaf- 2 years, 3.2 million- Turiaf is an average, undersized center who fights hard inside for rebounds and putbacks.  He will provide similar value as Stiemsma last year.  Grade: B-

July 12:

Mavericks sign Monta Ellis- 3 years 25 million- Ellis does put up great numbers.  Maybe Dirk Nowitzki can mentor him some, and he could become a more well rounded player.  Next to a pass-first PG in Calderon, he will score 20+ per game.  For over 10 million per year, I would laugh at the deal.  For just over 8?  Not too bad.  Grade: B

July 13:

Hawks match offer sheet for Jeff Teague- 4 years 32 million- If I were Danny Ferry, I'd have let Teague walk for that kind of money, and signed Jennings myself for a similar contract.  Teague has deep range on his shot, but is not as good of a passer, and is just as pitiful scoring inside as Jennings.  I think this was too much money to give to a player more suited to be a 6th man.  Grade: C-

*UPDATES ON THEIR WAY!