Barring a massive trade, the Blazers' offseason has essentially ended, with the only decision regarding Terell Harris' non-guaranteed contract. Over the last month, the team acquired CJ McCollum and Allen Crabbe through the draft, Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez via trades, and Dorell Wright and Earl Watson as free agents. Going into the offseason, the biggest need for this team was depth- outside of a legitimate option to start at center. If depth was our goal, we succeeded. Our depth chart now looks like this:
1 Lillard/McCollum/Watson
2 Matthews/Crabbe/Barton/Harris (?)
3 Batum/Wright/Claver
4 Aldridge/Robinson/Freeland
5 Lopez/Leonard
On a team last year where Luke Babbitt was our most successful reserve, upgrading all of the bench spots was of utmost importance. Next season, the team is well positioned to make a run for a playoff berth. Lillard will be a season more experienced, and has potential to be a 20 point scorer. Matthews and Batum are a great combo on the wing- when healthy, which is a big assumption at this point in their careers. Aldridge is the current face of the franchise, and is a player who will score 20+ while adding between 8 and 9 rebounds. This is the season to prove Portland can flourish long term, and ideally ink Aldridge to a sub-maximal extension. Here are my concerns:
1) Rebounding- Let me be clear: For what we gave up to get Robin Lopez, he is a tremendous coup. I am increasingly concerned over a frontcourt of Aldridge and Lopez on the glass. Lopez put up pedestrian rebounding numbers in New Orleans- quite similarly to his brother in Brooklyn. For this duo to be successful, both players have to make a commitment on the glass. Hickson had his flaws, but he was a rebounding machine. Offensively, Lopez is limited. Expect to see offensive sets closer to what Terry Stotts ran with Hickson, with Aldridge at the left block or high post with Lopez on the opposite short corner. Lopez is not a skilled passer, which leaves potential high-low looks out of the equation for now. The real impact of this frontcourt will come with Lopez's increased size over Hickson- at 7 feet. Aldridge has long campaigned for a 7 footer, and he finally received his wish.
2) Shooting Guard- I love Wesley Matthews- he plays with tenacity as a 3 & D player, and is the leader of this team in a vocal sense. Last season, his production dipped some, and his efficiency dipped even more. His PER was below average at the end of last season- a stat that must change this next season. His TO% needs to decrease as well. Behind him, two young players in Crabbe and Barton have failed to impress in summer league. Crabbe is a gifted shooter who has not earned many looks thus far, causing me to question his NBA readiness. I had him graded as a first round prospect, and am still elated to have grabbed him in the second round, but I expected a better performance thus far. Barton has looked like a shoot first, second and third player at summer league thus far, with his play characterized by a series of off-balance contested shots. Last season, he ended the year with a series of good games- a few of which he scored over 15. In these games, he let the game come to him, rather than force up shots that make the coaching staff (and myself!) cringe. I am still nervous when he gets the ball. Will he have his 3rd year option declined? The depth Neil Olshey has put together at the off-guard spot has potential, but overall efficiency and IQ of the group needs to improve. Spikes in eFG% and a decrease in TO% will go a long way in helping this cause.
3) Was it all enough? Houston added Dwight Howard without giving up their core. Golden State purged 23 million dollars worth of expiring contracts to sign Andre Iguodala. Oklahoma City, Memphis and the Clippers will all be contenders as well. San Antonio has aged another year- and I expect to see signs of aging more evident, but they will not go from the Western Conference Finals to missing a playoff berth. This leaves only 2 playoff spots remaining. New Orleans added Jrue Holiday. Kevin Love is healthy again for Minnesota. Denver lost Iggy, but is still a deep team. The Lakers are without Kobe, but for how long? Making a 7 or 8 seed in the Western Conference is a daunting task after being out of the picture for much of the past decade. Lopez, Robinson, McCollum and Wright all drastically improve our depth- there is no question to this. Is it truly enough to push us into the top 8? Last season, we stood near .500 after 50 games, before struggling (tanking...) to the finish line. Ideally, these new additions will lead to a decrease in minutes for Aldridge, Batum and Lillard- who led the league in minutes- and cause less fatigue at the end of the grueling 82 game season. Would Nikola Pekovic have helped more? How about Paul Millsap? Probably. The team we see now will win between 40 and 50 games. We will contend for the 8th spot- but will it be enough? If I were to predict the Western Conference Standings at the end of the regular season, it would look like this (A ridiculous notion- I know).
1 LA Clippers
2 Oklahoma City
3 Golden State
4 Houston
5 Memphis
6 San Antonio
7 Portland
8 Minnesota
9 Denver
10 New Orleans
11 LA Lakers
12 Sacramento
13 Utah
14 Dallas
15 Phoenix
What can I say? I am optimistic.
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