Fantasy Football Preview

In preseason, everyone's logic sounds good for why a particular player will break out in fantasy football.  Chris Johnson fans can make a compelling case every year- but do you really want to draft Chris Johnson?  If you have an intuition about a player- take him with no qualms, as long as he isn't a major reach where you take him.  For example, you may think Geno Smith breaks out at QB, but that doesn't mean you take him in the 5th round (or at all...  this was an extreme example.)  You hear fantasy football talking heads always discussing strategies regarding RB vs. QB in the first round, with occasional WRs thrown in.  Don't get too caught up in this, as both picks have their advantages and disadvantages.  If you take the best players available- you cannot miss.  Here are three factors I tend to look a lot at when drafting my team:

1.  Opportunity- Quite simply, how much will this player have the ball?  If a player averages 1 yard less per carry, but gets 100 more carries, you may want to take the less explosive player.  If a player is in a position to breakout, that is a good gamble to take.

2.  Past Production- Previous year stats matter.  For RBs I look at yards per carry and TDs- as they usually indicate who gets red zone touches.  For WRs/TEs I look at targets, catches and yards per catch.  For QBs, I look at players who do not turn the ball over, and can turn red zone attempts into TDs on their own.

3.  Age- Young players have better chances to breakout- but don't mistake this for drafting all rookies.  Players with some experience, but with room to grow, are the best picks to make.

Here is a list of players who should be highly considered for your team:

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers is still the safest best as a fantasy QB.  Draft him and move on with no regrets if you like QBs in round one.

Andrew Luck- Luck is my sleeper pick (somewhat) to breakout in fantasy this year.  He could put up Drew Brees-esque numbers in Indianapolis.

Russell Wilson- Wilson is incredibly efficient, and can score in the red zone with both his arm and legs.  He will consistently score 15-20 points, and you won't have to spend a high pick on him.

Kirk Cousins- As a late round pick, take Cousins.  Do you really trust RGIII to make it through the year?  I don't.  Cousins can provide quality points late in the season.

Others:  Brady, Manning Brees- the usual trio 

Running Backs: 

Jamaal Charles- Charles could easily wind up the top back this year.  He can run for yards after contact, and has breakaway speed.  Alex Smith is unlikely to throw 30 times a game, so Charles should maintain his workload under Andy Reid.

Adrian Peterson- MVP! MVP!  Peterson had a stellar year last year- one that fantasy owners will drool for this year.  His numbers will be elite, but don't expect the same level of production as last year.  But 1700 yards could be a realistic number he could hit, and still lead all backs.

Doug Martin- Sources show that Greg Schiano may not trust Josh Freeman- as he drafted Mike Glennon and hasn't shown inititiave in extending him.  Enter Martin, who is poised to get many carries.  Without a legitimate backup, he could lead the league in carries.

Chris Ivory- I think Ivory is poised for a breakout year.  1000 yards and 8 touchdowns could happen.  Who else are the Jets going to give the ball to?  Sanchez?  Geno?  Look at Ivory to have a nice season for a back not picked in the first 5 rounds.

Others:  Lynch, Spiller/Jackson, Ballard

Wide Receivers:

Calvin Johnson- Another obvious choice for a first round pick.  He broke lots of records last year, and is poised to put up similar numbers.  Johnson at number 1 overall is a very reasonable pick.

Randall Cobb- Cobb is the new Percy Harvin, and playing with Aaron Rodgers means he will have reliable balls to catch.  He has incredible speed as well.

Danny Amendola- This is not to say he can replace Wes Welker's production adequately, but Tom Brady has to throw to someone.  He is the top guy on a bad receiving corps, and should see lots of targets come his way.  He may have another injury, or be constantly covered by the top CB, but he is worth a pick in rounds 6-8.

Mike Wallace- The Dolphins prime addition should see deep ball after deep ball come his way.  In a PPR league, Wallace may not be a great choice, but he could conceivably lead the league in 100-yd receiving games.

Others:  TY Hilton, Brandon Marshall, AJ Green

Tight Ends:

Rob Gronkowski/Vernon Davis- TE production is all about red zone production.  These two are the only ones I would go above and beyond to draft.  They could lead to a playoff berth.

Other:  Greg Olsen, Jermaine Gresham

Stay tuned for a who to avoid column!