Exhibitions around the country have been common over the past week- whether secret or public. Each team is gearing up for the start of the season, ready to show off their players, defy doubters, and bring joy to millions of fans across the country.
I posted my preview a few weeks ago, and am linking it here in case you missed it- http://nbablazers.blogspot.com/2013/10/college-basketball-preview.html.
I love NBA basketball, but the professional ranks cannot match the number of significant storylines that take place around the country in the college game. Here are my top things to watch for entering the season:
1. Is Kentucky legit? Ken Pomeroy recently published an article discussing the merit that 7 Kentucky players could be drafted in the first round, using previous DraftExpress preseason mock drafts as a mode to identify whether highly touted players before the season remain top prospects (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/how_many_first_round_picks_will_kentucky_have)
Chad Ford, with ESPN, currently has Randle, Harrison x2, Young, Poythress, Cauley-Stein and Johnson slated as top 30 prospects for the 2014 draft. Pomeroy sees 4 Kentucky first round picks as the most likely scenario, slightly edging out 5 in rd. 1. Looking at my big board (linked to the right!), I currently have 6 UK players in the top 30. Though I still see a bright future for Alex Poythress, it would not surprise me if he loses his status as a top 30 player on a variety of platforms.
Last season, Kentucky had a top recruiting class that massively undewhelmed, with the Wildcats missing the tournament before losing to Robert Morris in the NIT first round. I don't have too much of an issue with Kentucky as the preseason number one, as the team has lots of talent, but analysts are blinded by the high level recruits who may not pan out. In a down SEC year, Kentucky will win the conference, but this is a 6-10 ranked team at this point, and not #1. Time will tell.
2. Does Wiggins stay the consensus number one draft pick? I boldly say yes! Wiggins is legit. But didn't a lot of experts say the same thing about Shabazz Muhammad- who eventually went 14th on draft day. I doubt Wiggins is found to be older than he really is, but seeing him underwhelm in Lawrence is a possibility, especially considering the high level players around him.
I would say there is a 95% probability Wiggins goes #1 at this point, and I am very excited to catch a glimpse of Kansas in games that count. I look forward to a match-up with #4 Duke on November 12, and I am borderline desperate to see Wiggins and Parker match-up on each other. Gahh, what's not to like? That game will be the best in the month of November.
3. Can Louisville repeat? Louisville lost a lot. Peyton Siva is gone. So is Gorgui Dieng. Russ Smith and Montrezl Harrell return to lead the team, and big contributions will be expected from Chris Jones, Wayne Blackshear, and Final Four hero Luke Hancock. Chane Behanan is currently under suspension for violation of team rules, but will be an important piece of the puzzle when he returns. It is never easy to win back to back titles, but this Louisville team is talented, and should not be overlooked. I think Rick Pitino's squad finds a way to make it back to the Elite Eight, at minimum.
4. Is this the year a mid-major wins the title? Gonzaga disappointed as a 1 seed, but is back with another dominant squad. VCU has perhaps their most talented, and deepest, roster under Shaka Smart. Wichita State reached the final four last year, and returns over half their starting core. Can Greg Marshall's squad do it again?
Given the talent of Kentucky, Michigan State, Louisville, etc., I do not think this is the year a mid major wins it all, but I sure hope a team makes a deep run. When Brad Stevens' Butler squads made back-to-back title game appearances, there was a terrific story and an underdog to root for. VCU may have the best chance to reach a final four this year, but has issues with turnovers that need to be rectified. Gonzaga will likely win 30 regular season games, but do they have the infrastructure to make a deep run?
Want a darkhorse to make an elite eight appearance? Harvard is the pick. They return all of last year's squad that upset New Mexico, and bring back a pair of players who missed the season over an academic scandal (guilty or not...). Nicole Auerbach provides a good read on the Crimson- a team you do not want to overlook this year: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/ivy/2013/10/31/college-basketball-harvard-crimson-brandyn-curry-kyle-casey/3322027/
5. What draft prospects emerge from obscurity? This is a pertinent question, especially after top 3 draft choices Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter were not ranked as top 100 high school prospects. Oladipo had a breakout year last year that was, perhaps, the best in the country. This season's draft will be like many others before it- strongly led by freshmen and sophomores. The top seniors on my board are late first round candidates in Russ Smith and Doug McDermott. Here are 5 prospects who could emerge as legitimate 1st round (or higher) draft prospects despite a relative lack of chatter at this point:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Arizona, Best Case NBA comp: Gerald Wallace
Sam Dekker/Wisconsin, Best Case NBA comp: Gordan Hayward
Leo Westermann/France, Best Case NBA comp: Sergio Rodriguez
Dwight Powell/Stanford, Best Case NBA comp: Thaddeus Young
Jerelle Benimon/Towson, Best Case NBA comp: Taj Gibson (I am reaching a little on this one, but Benimon is overlooked)
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