It just can't seem that Rip City can catch a break. Promising first round pick CJ McCollum broke his fifth metatarsal- little toe side- in his left foot, and will require surgery. McCollum will likely miss at least half of the season, though no timetable will be set until after the foot is surgically repaired. How does this injury affect the start of the season in Portland?
Mo Williams will play a larger role- potentially up to 25 mpg- as the definite sixth man of this team. The starters won't be affected, other than potentially playing more minutes. The depth of the team is still much better than in the 2012/13 season, but the injury does hurt. Will Allan Crabbe or Will Barton step into more minutes? Does Stotts opt for Claver and Wright in using a larger wing rotation?
The biggest effect CJ McCollum's injury will have will be less perimeter shooting by the bench unit. Wright and Williams are capable shooters, as are Claver and Freeland to an extent (For the record, I am still a Freeland fan). My biggest question mark surrounds Allan Crabbe's ability to hit the NBA 3. No doubt he was a great shooter at Cal, and I graded him as a late first rounder for last year's draft. He shot poorly (25% on 16 attempts) in summer league from 3, but I would assume he has been getting repetition after repetition in practice and in intrasquad scrimmages.
On the surface, McCollum's injury hurts a lot. The truth? It might. He may have been the best scorer on our bench. Portland, however, does have pieces who could potentially fill the void. Mo Williams needs to be our 6th man- and an efficient one at that. Crabbe needs to shoot well, and Barton needs to be efficient when he gets the chance. Hypothetically, I think CJ would have started the season getting 15-18 mpg. Likely, half those minutes go to Mo Williams, a few are absorbed by Lillard and Matthews, and either Crabbe, Barton or Claver get tossed a few as well. I am anxious, but excited, to see how this team responds. I want to know how mentally tough the 2013/14 Blazers are.
Follow on Twitter @ZRey12
*Expect a comprehensive college basketball preview within the next week, and a Blazers/NBA preview within the next 2 weeks. Basketball is coming, my friend, and it is AMAZING!
Sunday, October 6, 2013
Saturday, October 5, 2013
College Football ATS Picks
Last week, against the spread I went 9-4 with 2 pushes against the spread. Here are this weeks picks:
Georgia State (+54) over Alabama, Alabama wins 49-3
Oregon (-40.5) over Colorado, Oregon wins 66-17
Clemson (-14) over Syracuse, Clemson wins 35-17
Northwestern (+7) over Ohio State, Northwestern wins 21-17
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington, Stanford wins 35-20
Georgia (-10.5) over Tennessee, Georgia wins 31-10
Louisville (-32) over Temple, Louisville wins 49-10
Maryland (+16.5) over Florida State, Florida State wins 35-28
LSU (-7.5) over Mississippi, LSU wins 30-14
Oklahoma (-8) over TCU, Oklahoma wins 34-17
Kentucky (+21) over South Carolina, South Carolina wins 20-3
Miami (-6.5) over Georgia Tech, Miami wins 24-13
West Virginia (+30) over Baylor, Baylor wins 45-28
Arkansas (+13) over Florida, Florida wins 21-13
Texas Tech (-16.5) over Kansas, Texas Tech wins 38-12
Michigan (-19) over Minnesota, Michigan wins 31-7
Oklahoma State (-13.5) over Kansas State, Ok. St. wins 42-21
Arizona State (-6) over Notre Dame, Arizona State wins 31-17
Auburn (+3) over Ole Miss, Auburn wins 14-10
Fresno State (-28) over Idaho, Fresno State wins 56-14
Georgia State (+54) over Alabama, Alabama wins 49-3
Oregon (-40.5) over Colorado, Oregon wins 66-17
Clemson (-14) over Syracuse, Clemson wins 35-17
Northwestern (+7) over Ohio State, Northwestern wins 21-17
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington, Stanford wins 35-20
Georgia (-10.5) over Tennessee, Georgia wins 31-10
Louisville (-32) over Temple, Louisville wins 49-10
Maryland (+16.5) over Florida State, Florida State wins 35-28
LSU (-7.5) over Mississippi, LSU wins 30-14
Oklahoma (-8) over TCU, Oklahoma wins 34-17
Kentucky (+21) over South Carolina, South Carolina wins 20-3
Miami (-6.5) over Georgia Tech, Miami wins 24-13
West Virginia (+30) over Baylor, Baylor wins 45-28
Arkansas (+13) over Florida, Florida wins 21-13
Texas Tech (-16.5) over Kansas, Texas Tech wins 38-12
Michigan (-19) over Minnesota, Michigan wins 31-7
Oklahoma State (-13.5) over Kansas State, Ok. St. wins 42-21
Arizona State (-6) over Notre Dame, Arizona State wins 31-17
Auburn (+3) over Ole Miss, Auburn wins 14-10
Fresno State (-28) over Idaho, Fresno State wins 56-14
Friday, September 27, 2013
Week 5 College Football Picks- Against The Spread
Last week, I went 17-1 in a week where no top team was upset. I am now 51-7 on the season. To make things more difficult, I will be picking this week against the spread. To clarify, just because I choose a team who may be, say, +19, it doesn't necessarily mean I think they will win the game. Rather, it indicates the team will cover the spread. I will, however, put a score prediction after the ATS pick.
#1 Alabama (-16.5) over #21 Ole Miss, Alabama wins 31-10
#2 Oregon (-36) over Cal, Oregon wins 55-14
#3 Clemson (-28.5) over Wake Forest, Clemson wins 35-3
Wisconsin (+7) over #4 Ohio State, Wisconsin wins 21-20
#5 Stanford (-10) over Washington State, Stanford wins 35-17
#9 Georgia (-3) over #6 LSU, Georgia wins 24-17
#8 Florida State (-22) over Boston College, Florida St. wins 31-7
#10 Texas A&M (-3) over Arkansas, Texas A&M wins 24-20
#11 Oklahoma State (-19) over West Virginia, Oklahoma State wins 49-13
#12 South Carolina (-7) over UCF, South Carolina wins 28-7
#22 Notre Dame (+3.5) over #14 Oklahoma, Oklahoma wins 28-25
#15 Miami (-19) over South Florida, Miami wins 31-10
#16 Washington (-10) over Arizona, Washington wins 35-24
#20 Florida (-13.5) over Kentucky, Florida wins 20-3
Hawaii (+19) over #25 Fresno State, Fresno State wins 31-14
#1 Alabama (-16.5) over #21 Ole Miss, Alabama wins 31-10
#2 Oregon (-36) over Cal, Oregon wins 55-14
#3 Clemson (-28.5) over Wake Forest, Clemson wins 35-3
Wisconsin (+7) over #4 Ohio State, Wisconsin wins 21-20
#5 Stanford (-10) over Washington State, Stanford wins 35-17
#9 Georgia (-3) over #6 LSU, Georgia wins 24-17
#8 Florida State (-22) over Boston College, Florida St. wins 31-7
#10 Texas A&M (-3) over Arkansas, Texas A&M wins 24-20
#11 Oklahoma State (-19) over West Virginia, Oklahoma State wins 49-13
#12 South Carolina (-7) over UCF, South Carolina wins 28-7
#22 Notre Dame (+3.5) over #14 Oklahoma, Oklahoma wins 28-25
#15 Miami (-19) over South Florida, Miami wins 31-10
#16 Washington (-10) over Arizona, Washington wins 35-24
#20 Florida (-13.5) over Kentucky, Florida wins 20-3
Hawaii (+19) over #25 Fresno State, Fresno State wins 31-14
#NBARank Analysis: Players 301-400
"This year, we asked our ESPN Forecast panel to predict the
overall level of play for each player for the upcoming NBA season. This
includes both the quality and the quantity of his expected
contributions, combined in one overall rating."
How did ESPN do with their list from 301-400? The network divides players into blocks of 25; I will be analyzing an overrated and underrated player for each block.
400-376:
Overrated- Derek Fisher (#381)- Fisher is a good set shooter, and is a smart player on the court. He had a major role in the NBA Players' Association. From a basketball standpoint, he should probably be out of the league. Sure he has a knack for hitting clutch shots, but he is virtually unplayable for most of a game, especially on the defensive end. 420-430 seems more appropriate.
Other- Royal Ivey (#395)
Underrated- Giannis Antetokounmpo (#376)- He is mysterious, and likely plays in the D-League for the first chunk of the year. Given the other small forwards on the roster, he could get a chance to start next to Henson/Sanders in a group once the Bucks are eliminated from playoff contention- should be around midseason. I have solid expectations for Giannis, and think he will pan out for John Hammond.
Other- Luigi Datome (#397)
375-351:
Overrated- Josh Childress (#361)- Childress will have a tough time making a roster, yet voters somehow rated him above over 100 more players, many with superior talent and potential. While his afro may be the best in the league, he is a slasher who can't get to the rim, and an unreliable outside shots. He should be below 450.
Other- Marcus Camby (#363)
Underrated- Perry Jones III (#368)- I still believe Jones III has a bright future, and he should see more minutes in OKC this year. He is a 6'11 forward who is a good ball handler for the forward position. He is a decent rebounder and shot blocker due to his athleticism and length. He is a more reliable outside shot away from producing like Earl Clark last year in LA. If he doesn't get minutes in OKC, someone else should take a chance on Jones. It will pay off.
Other- Tony Mitchell (#366)
350-326:
Overrated: Anthony Randolph (#343)- Don't get me wrong, Randolph still has potential. He is only 24 years old and entering his 6th season in the NBA. He has been a bust so far- his physical gifts were too tempting at the time. Don't expect Randolph to get many minutes in a crowded front court rotation. He could make a bigger impact on a different team, but don't expect any significant production from Randolph, a player who will be stuck as a 13th man this year.
Underrated: Kent Bazemore (#332)- Bazemore has potential to be an electric scorer, and a lockdown defender. He has potential to be a more athletic Wesley Matthews if his offense, and outside shot in particular, continue to improve. He could be a dunk contest candidate due to his ridiculous athleticism, and he improves the depth in GS even after the loss of Jarrett Jack. At this time next year, he could move up another 100 spots.
Others: Tony Wroten (#341), Hasheem Thabeet (#347)
325-301:
Overrated: Charlie Villanueva (#313)- How much production are we really expecting from Villanueva? He is likely behind Jerebko, Singler, Datome and Tony Mitchell on the depth chart, and is a limited defensive player. Finally in the last year of his contract, he could be moved to a tanking team (yes, the 2014 draft class is tank worthy) for a younger prospect. This could be the end of the line in the NBA for Charlie.
Other: Joel Anthony (#311)
Underrated: Kendall Marshall (#320) Marshall is now stuck on the depth chart behind Dragic and Bledsoe, and may find very few minutes to start the year. Unfortunately, the Suns will struggle again this year, which could make way for more time on the court after midseason for Marshall. Widely regarded as the best passer in the 2012 draft, Marshall could find himself more time next to Dragic/Bledsoe if he improves his shooting.
Others: John Jenkins (#301)
How did ESPN do with their list from 301-400? The network divides players into blocks of 25; I will be analyzing an overrated and underrated player for each block.
400-376:
Overrated- Derek Fisher (#381)- Fisher is a good set shooter, and is a smart player on the court. He had a major role in the NBA Players' Association. From a basketball standpoint, he should probably be out of the league. Sure he has a knack for hitting clutch shots, but he is virtually unplayable for most of a game, especially on the defensive end. 420-430 seems more appropriate.
Other- Royal Ivey (#395)
Underrated- Giannis Antetokounmpo (#376)- He is mysterious, and likely plays in the D-League for the first chunk of the year. Given the other small forwards on the roster, he could get a chance to start next to Henson/Sanders in a group once the Bucks are eliminated from playoff contention- should be around midseason. I have solid expectations for Giannis, and think he will pan out for John Hammond.
Other- Luigi Datome (#397)
375-351:
Overrated- Josh Childress (#361)- Childress will have a tough time making a roster, yet voters somehow rated him above over 100 more players, many with superior talent and potential. While his afro may be the best in the league, he is a slasher who can't get to the rim, and an unreliable outside shots. He should be below 450.
Other- Marcus Camby (#363)
Underrated- Perry Jones III (#368)- I still believe Jones III has a bright future, and he should see more minutes in OKC this year. He is a 6'11 forward who is a good ball handler for the forward position. He is a decent rebounder and shot blocker due to his athleticism and length. He is a more reliable outside shot away from producing like Earl Clark last year in LA. If he doesn't get minutes in OKC, someone else should take a chance on Jones. It will pay off.
Other- Tony Mitchell (#366)
350-326:
Overrated: Anthony Randolph (#343)- Don't get me wrong, Randolph still has potential. He is only 24 years old and entering his 6th season in the NBA. He has been a bust so far- his physical gifts were too tempting at the time. Don't expect Randolph to get many minutes in a crowded front court rotation. He could make a bigger impact on a different team, but don't expect any significant production from Randolph, a player who will be stuck as a 13th man this year.
Underrated: Kent Bazemore (#332)- Bazemore has potential to be an electric scorer, and a lockdown defender. He has potential to be a more athletic Wesley Matthews if his offense, and outside shot in particular, continue to improve. He could be a dunk contest candidate due to his ridiculous athleticism, and he improves the depth in GS even after the loss of Jarrett Jack. At this time next year, he could move up another 100 spots.
Others: Tony Wroten (#341), Hasheem Thabeet (#347)
325-301:
Overrated: Charlie Villanueva (#313)- How much production are we really expecting from Villanueva? He is likely behind Jerebko, Singler, Datome and Tony Mitchell on the depth chart, and is a limited defensive player. Finally in the last year of his contract, he could be moved to a tanking team (yes, the 2014 draft class is tank worthy) for a younger prospect. This could be the end of the line in the NBA for Charlie.
Other: Joel Anthony (#311)
Underrated: Kendall Marshall (#320) Marshall is now stuck on the depth chart behind Dragic and Bledsoe, and may find very few minutes to start the year. Unfortunately, the Suns will struggle again this year, which could make way for more time on the court after midseason for Marshall. Widely regarded as the best passer in the 2012 draft, Marshall could find himself more time next to Dragic/Bledsoe if he improves his shooting.
Others: John Jenkins (#301)
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Blazers NBA 2K14 Ratings
Today, the rankings come out for NBA 2K14. Straight from the Blazers' Facebook page (Casey Holdahl), here are the ranks for the Blazers:
Analysis:
Aldridge is ranked too low at 84. He is a top 3 PF in the game, but is likely ranked behind Kevin Love and Blake Griffin- I'd take Aldridge over Griffin personally, but these are the 3 best PF's in the game right now. Offensively, he is dominant, as indicated by his A grade for inside scoring. Defensively, he is underrated, where his B- grade should be closer to a B+. While he rebounding is not great, we are still talking about a guy who averaged 9 per game, and the B- rating may be slightly on the low side.
Damian Lillard was graded nicely by the 2K crew, tied for Aldridge for tops on the team with an 84 grade. His outside scoring, IQ and handle grades will lead to impressive stats over game simulations, and his defense may be slightly overrated at a B grade. Nic Batum, graded as a 78, and Wesley Matthews, graded as a 77, are in similar spots as in last year's game. Doesn't that seem accurate? Batum is inconsistent, but has all of the tools to put together a 16-5-5 season. Given all scores in the C range or higher, this is reflected. Matthews is given credit for being the best perimeter defender on the team. While Batum has his pundits, Matthews is the best Blazer to be thrown on a Kobe Bryant or a James Harden. His outside shooting score is high, and his status in the game seems accurate.
After those four players, the ratings need to be questioned. Does anyone really believe Mo Williams is worthy of a 78 rating? Veteran players have been comically overrated over the last 3-5 years in 2K's NBA series, and it appears that this will be a similar situation. No one can deny Williams ability to shoot from range- an A grade- but it is nearly shocking to see him rated as a B+ perimeter defender. Last season Williams posted a pedestrian 111 defensive rating. That earns a B+? Like Williams, Earl Watson- graded as a 67- is overrated. Watson seems like a solid candidate to start the season on IR, and to see him ranked as the team's 10th best player- and 9 points better than Meyers Leonard (more to come) is a mistake. Watson should be graded as a 60 at best (though, in true Blazer fan colors, I hope I am wrong!)
If the ratings of Thomas Robinson, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright and CJ McCollum prove to be accurate, the Blazers did an awesome job of improving their bench (I, again, agree that the team did). Robinson may be optimistically graded, but he is still a top 5 pick oozing with potential, and he could be the best rebounder on the team- just as 2K ranks him. Robin Lopez is graded as the team's best post defender, but has a shockingly accurate C rating for rebounding. Dorell Wright is the likely sixth man to start the year for Rip City, and is known for his ability to stretch the defense with his accurate 3 point shot (37.5% last year over 361 attempts). He is graded as a C+ for outside shooting, which is puzzling, especially given Victor Claver (28% last year over 87 attempts) is rated as a B-. Did 2K do their homework on this one? CJ McCollum, the rookie who Portland selected at 10 in the draft, grades as a 74, which is 4 points higher than Lillard was initially graded as a rookie last year. This shows 2K thinks McCollum is NBA ready, and with the outside shot (B+) to stretch the defenses and earn minutes. At a 74 though, is he really only three points worse overall than Wesley Matthews?
The end of the bench is shockingly similar to last year's ratings. Did 2K review these again? Apparently they thought no one would notice, as Joel Freeland is still rated as a 63 despite an underwhelming rookie campaign, and Meyers Leonard is given a 58 rating, and poor offensive grades despite showing potential in that area. Barton and Claver's scores are reminiscent of last year's game, and Crabbe- a rookie- is given a 64 grade. No doubt shooting in video games is a worthy attribute, but he will be struggling to find minutes, especially at the start of the year.
Overall, 2K did a decent job with their ratings- some better than others. The actual game 2K puts out is always worth the money, having improved the game noticeably over the past few years. I will be a consumer in the game, and realize that, given online status in the game, ratings can fluctuate throughout the season. That said, if I were giving the Blazers overall ratings for NBA 2K14, they would look like this:
Lamarcus Aldridge: 88
Damian Lillard: 84
Nicolas Batum: 79
Wesley Matthews: 78
Mo Williams: 73
Dorell Wright: 73
Thomas Robinson: 70
Robin Lopez: 69
CJ McCollum: 68
Victor Claver: 65
Meyers Leonard: 64
Allan Crabbe: 61
Earl Watson: 60
Joel Freeland: 60
Will Barton: 57
| Player | Rating | IN | OUT | PER D | POST D | HNDL | REB | IQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Aldridge | 84 | A | C+ | D+ | B- | D+ | B- | A- |
| D. Lillard | 84 | C+ | A- | B | F | A | D- | A- |
| M. Williams | 78 | C | A | B+ | D- | B | D- | B+ |
| N. Batum | 78 | C+ | B- | B+ | C+ | C- | C- | B+ |
| W. Matthews | 77 | C+ | B | A | D | C | D- | B+ |
| T. Robinson | 74 | B | F | C | C+ | D- | B+ | C+ |
| C. McCollum | 74 | C+ | B+ | C+ | F | B- | D- | B- |
| D. Wright | 72 | C | C+ | B- | D+ | C | C | B |
| R. Lopez | 68 | C+ | F | D- | B+ | F | C | B- |
| E. Watson | 67 | D+ | C+ | B | F | A- | D | C |
| A. Crabbe | 64 | C | B+ | C+ | D- | C | D+ | C |
| J. Freeland | 63 | C+ | D+ | D- | C- | D | B | C- |
| V. Claver | 61 | C | B- | D+ | C- | D+ | D+ | C |
| W. Barton | 58 | C- | D+ | C+ | F | C+ | C- | D |
| M. Leonard | 58 | D+ | F | D- | B- | F | C | C- |
Analysis:
Aldridge is ranked too low at 84. He is a top 3 PF in the game, but is likely ranked behind Kevin Love and Blake Griffin- I'd take Aldridge over Griffin personally, but these are the 3 best PF's in the game right now. Offensively, he is dominant, as indicated by his A grade for inside scoring. Defensively, he is underrated, where his B- grade should be closer to a B+. While he rebounding is not great, we are still talking about a guy who averaged 9 per game, and the B- rating may be slightly on the low side.
Damian Lillard was graded nicely by the 2K crew, tied for Aldridge for tops on the team with an 84 grade. His outside scoring, IQ and handle grades will lead to impressive stats over game simulations, and his defense may be slightly overrated at a B grade. Nic Batum, graded as a 78, and Wesley Matthews, graded as a 77, are in similar spots as in last year's game. Doesn't that seem accurate? Batum is inconsistent, but has all of the tools to put together a 16-5-5 season. Given all scores in the C range or higher, this is reflected. Matthews is given credit for being the best perimeter defender on the team. While Batum has his pundits, Matthews is the best Blazer to be thrown on a Kobe Bryant or a James Harden. His outside shooting score is high, and his status in the game seems accurate.
After those four players, the ratings need to be questioned. Does anyone really believe Mo Williams is worthy of a 78 rating? Veteran players have been comically overrated over the last 3-5 years in 2K's NBA series, and it appears that this will be a similar situation. No one can deny Williams ability to shoot from range- an A grade- but it is nearly shocking to see him rated as a B+ perimeter defender. Last season Williams posted a pedestrian 111 defensive rating. That earns a B+? Like Williams, Earl Watson- graded as a 67- is overrated. Watson seems like a solid candidate to start the season on IR, and to see him ranked as the team's 10th best player- and 9 points better than Meyers Leonard (more to come) is a mistake. Watson should be graded as a 60 at best (though, in true Blazer fan colors, I hope I am wrong!)
If the ratings of Thomas Robinson, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright and CJ McCollum prove to be accurate, the Blazers did an awesome job of improving their bench (I, again, agree that the team did). Robinson may be optimistically graded, but he is still a top 5 pick oozing with potential, and he could be the best rebounder on the team- just as 2K ranks him. Robin Lopez is graded as the team's best post defender, but has a shockingly accurate C rating for rebounding. Dorell Wright is the likely sixth man to start the year for Rip City, and is known for his ability to stretch the defense with his accurate 3 point shot (37.5% last year over 361 attempts). He is graded as a C+ for outside shooting, which is puzzling, especially given Victor Claver (28% last year over 87 attempts) is rated as a B-. Did 2K do their homework on this one? CJ McCollum, the rookie who Portland selected at 10 in the draft, grades as a 74, which is 4 points higher than Lillard was initially graded as a rookie last year. This shows 2K thinks McCollum is NBA ready, and with the outside shot (B+) to stretch the defenses and earn minutes. At a 74 though, is he really only three points worse overall than Wesley Matthews?
The end of the bench is shockingly similar to last year's ratings. Did 2K review these again? Apparently they thought no one would notice, as Joel Freeland is still rated as a 63 despite an underwhelming rookie campaign, and Meyers Leonard is given a 58 rating, and poor offensive grades despite showing potential in that area. Barton and Claver's scores are reminiscent of last year's game, and Crabbe- a rookie- is given a 64 grade. No doubt shooting in video games is a worthy attribute, but he will be struggling to find minutes, especially at the start of the year.
Overall, 2K did a decent job with their ratings- some better than others. The actual game 2K puts out is always worth the money, having improved the game noticeably over the past few years. I will be a consumer in the game, and realize that, given online status in the game, ratings can fluctuate throughout the season. That said, if I were giving the Blazers overall ratings for NBA 2K14, they would look like this:
Lamarcus Aldridge: 88
Damian Lillard: 84
Nicolas Batum: 79
Wesley Matthews: 78
Mo Williams: 73
Dorell Wright: 73
Thomas Robinson: 70
Robin Lopez: 69
CJ McCollum: 68
Victor Claver: 65
Meyers Leonard: 64
Allan Crabbe: 61
Earl Watson: 60
Joel Freeland: 60
Will Barton: 57
Saturday, September 21, 2013
10 Intriguing Questions for College Basketball Season
Last season was excellent in college basketball. The 2013 NCAA tournament was unbelievably competitive, characterized by upsets, highlight reel plays, and too much Louisville. Here are a few of my favorite videos from last season, including a season highlight mix:
The dunk that almost broke twitter:
And a compelling title game:
This season, I project a season that can rival last season's story lines. Here are ten questions I have regarding the season:
1. How do coaching changes affect the conference and national landscapes?
Perhaps the biggest loss, is former Butler coach Brad Stevens signing a six year deal with the Boston Celtics- a hire I love by the NBA franchise. Stevens has led a Butler program to unprecedented success without many high recruits. Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard, Roosevelt Jones, and most successful, Gordon Hayward were the top players representing the team that made back-to-back national title game appearances. The Butler team still has some talent, but will losing Stevens drastically affect the Bulldogs' season?
In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC have hired new coaches in the Pac-12. UCLA lured Steve Alford away from New Mexico- a program that had been successful over the past few seasons, and will be a good team again this year. He inherits a team with talent, led by point forward Kyle Anderson and wing Jordan Adams. If Alford can get the team to play cohesively, the Bruins should gain a berth in the NCAA tournament once again. USC hired Florida Gulf Coast's Andy Enfield, who was a media darling after he coached the #15 seed team to a sweet 16 appearance. His team showed an ability to convert lots of alley-oops in the tournament, and was exciting to watch against Georgetown and San Diego State- both wins. Can Enfield find more success in the Pac-12?
Minnesota hired Richard Pitino from FIU. Northwestern hired Duke assistant Chris Collins. Eddie Jordan goes to Rutgers. Tubby Smith was hired at Texas Tech. Expect all of these coaching changes to be instrumental over the next 3-5 seasons, but I doubt any of these teams make the NCAA tournament this next year.
2. Does conference re-alignment dictate more berths to mid-majors?
The Big East- widely regarded as the top conference over the last 5 years- has essentially dissolved. Many teams have left for the ACC, some formed the American conference, and others lie in a "Big East Purgatory-" for lack of a better phrase. Will this realignment mean more berths for other conferences, namely mid majors? I think yes, and expect the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, in particular, to reap the benefits. I predict 10 teams from the two conferences combined will make the tournament next year.
3. Will the Pac-12, once again, rise to becoming a great conference?
The Pac-12 will be better. Arizona is the favorite to win the conference, returning guard Nick Johnson, forward Brandon Ashley and center Kaleb Tarczewski to join with blue chip recruits Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The team has the initial look of a top 10 team, given Johnson proves he can handle the ball efficiently.
The Oregon Ducks are a team to watch as well. They have one of the best backcourts in the country in Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson, and received a gift of a transfer in former All-American Mike Moser, who is coming off an elbow injury at UNLV. If the Ducks find a presence inside, they could compete for a conference title.
Arizona State, led by Jahii Carson, Washington, led by Nigel Williams-Gross, and UCLA will all be factored into the national picture at some point. Expect the Pac-12 to end up with 5 bids, minimum, in the NCAA tournament.
4. Can Louisville repeat?
Russ Smith is back to lead the Cardinals, along with a still-impressive supporting cast of Behanan, Harrell, Blackshear, Jones and Ware. The season's success all rely on Smith's ability to produce, and, I don't expect him to disappoint. I think Louisville's defense is stellar again, and Behanan and Harrell should matchup well at the forward spots. The team may face difficulties against true centers, but not many teams can boast such an option. I like Louisville to finish a top ten team once again.
5. Will the freshman class impress as expected?
Last year, Calipari's one and done crowd disappointed, and a few of the players returned. This year, Kentucky again boasts one of the top recruiting classes, highlighted by Jerome Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson, and the Harrison twins. Coupled with the return of Poythress and Cauley-Stein, and UK could be a force to reckon with again. I think this team is much better than last year, led by Rande and Andrew Harrison.
The freshman class at Arizona will be good, and Kansas has three potential top 5 picks in Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Wayne Selden. Wiggins will be a preseason All-American as a freshman with an excellent chance to win the award. If he can prove to be an effective outside shooter, he will average 18-8 as a wing, and lead Kansas deep into the tournament. Kansas' freshman class will outshine the one at Kentucky.
Finally, will Jabari Parker be the go-to guy at Duke? He is a tremendous scorer, and will be lethal at the college level. Next to Sulaimon and Marshall Plumlee, Duke has a young big three that could lead to an ACC title this year.
6. Who will be the All-Americans?
Here are my pre-preseason picks- I have the right to change this in my official college basketball preview which will come out next month:
In no particular order, here are some players I expect to write about on the list next month,
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Alex Kirk/New Mexico
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Gary Harris/Michigan State
Mitch McGary/Michigan
Russ Smith/Louisville
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Kevin Pangos/Gonzaga
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Jerelle Benimon/Towson
Yogi Ferrell/Indiana
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
Briante Weber/VCU
Jerome Randle/Kentucky
7. What are the games to watch this season?
An early 10 I am looking forward to are:
Arizona vs. Michigan
Duke vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon vs. Georgetown
Duke vs. UCLA
VCU vs. Michigan (Would be 2nd round of Puerto Rico classic if all works out)
Gonzaga vs. Baylor (Would be 2nd round of Maui Invitational)
Syracuse vs. Indiana
Kansas vs. New Mexico
8. Who are the top teams heading into the season?
Here is my preseason top 15:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Michigan
6 Arizona
7 Gonzaga
8 Kentucky
9 Indiana
10 Duke
11 Marquette
12 Florida
13 VCU
14 New Mexico
15 Oregon
9. What teams are likely to disappoint?
Unfortunately, I think Syracuse and North Carolina, in particular, will take a step backwards this season. Syracuse doesn't have a go to player offensively, and doesn't have many shooters. Expect teams to pack the lane and make CJ Fair hit threes instead of getting to the rim, or the 8-12 foot range where he is so effective. North Carolina returns PJ Hairston, who has had a flurry of off court issues this offseason. I like Page at the point, and James has intriguing potential inside, but I like a lot of other ACC teams to knock off the Tar Heels this season. It looks like an NIT type of year.
Wichita State was a great story last year, but I don't see much of a chance for the Shockers to repeat their success. Likewise, don't expect another 30 win season from Memphis. Both teams could be NCAA tournament bound again, but expecting a deep run is overly optimistic.
10. Which conferences will be the strongest?
Here is my prediction of the top 5 conferences:
1. ACC
2. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. Pac 12
5. SEC
The dunk that almost broke twitter:
And a compelling title game:
This season, I project a season that can rival last season's story lines. Here are ten questions I have regarding the season:
1. How do coaching changes affect the conference and national landscapes?
Perhaps the biggest loss, is former Butler coach Brad Stevens signing a six year deal with the Boston Celtics- a hire I love by the NBA franchise. Stevens has led a Butler program to unprecedented success without many high recruits. Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard, Roosevelt Jones, and most successful, Gordon Hayward were the top players representing the team that made back-to-back national title game appearances. The Butler team still has some talent, but will losing Stevens drastically affect the Bulldogs' season?
In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC have hired new coaches in the Pac-12. UCLA lured Steve Alford away from New Mexico- a program that had been successful over the past few seasons, and will be a good team again this year. He inherits a team with talent, led by point forward Kyle Anderson and wing Jordan Adams. If Alford can get the team to play cohesively, the Bruins should gain a berth in the NCAA tournament once again. USC hired Florida Gulf Coast's Andy Enfield, who was a media darling after he coached the #15 seed team to a sweet 16 appearance. His team showed an ability to convert lots of alley-oops in the tournament, and was exciting to watch against Georgetown and San Diego State- both wins. Can Enfield find more success in the Pac-12?
Minnesota hired Richard Pitino from FIU. Northwestern hired Duke assistant Chris Collins. Eddie Jordan goes to Rutgers. Tubby Smith was hired at Texas Tech. Expect all of these coaching changes to be instrumental over the next 3-5 seasons, but I doubt any of these teams make the NCAA tournament this next year.
2. Does conference re-alignment dictate more berths to mid-majors?
The Big East- widely regarded as the top conference over the last 5 years- has essentially dissolved. Many teams have left for the ACC, some formed the American conference, and others lie in a "Big East Purgatory-" for lack of a better phrase. Will this realignment mean more berths for other conferences, namely mid majors? I think yes, and expect the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, in particular, to reap the benefits. I predict 10 teams from the two conferences combined will make the tournament next year.
3. Will the Pac-12, once again, rise to becoming a great conference?
The Pac-12 will be better. Arizona is the favorite to win the conference, returning guard Nick Johnson, forward Brandon Ashley and center Kaleb Tarczewski to join with blue chip recruits Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The team has the initial look of a top 10 team, given Johnson proves he can handle the ball efficiently.
The Oregon Ducks are a team to watch as well. They have one of the best backcourts in the country in Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson, and received a gift of a transfer in former All-American Mike Moser, who is coming off an elbow injury at UNLV. If the Ducks find a presence inside, they could compete for a conference title.
Arizona State, led by Jahii Carson, Washington, led by Nigel Williams-Gross, and UCLA will all be factored into the national picture at some point. Expect the Pac-12 to end up with 5 bids, minimum, in the NCAA tournament.
4. Can Louisville repeat?
Russ Smith is back to lead the Cardinals, along with a still-impressive supporting cast of Behanan, Harrell, Blackshear, Jones and Ware. The season's success all rely on Smith's ability to produce, and, I don't expect him to disappoint. I think Louisville's defense is stellar again, and Behanan and Harrell should matchup well at the forward spots. The team may face difficulties against true centers, but not many teams can boast such an option. I like Louisville to finish a top ten team once again.
5. Will the freshman class impress as expected?
Last year, Calipari's one and done crowd disappointed, and a few of the players returned. This year, Kentucky again boasts one of the top recruiting classes, highlighted by Jerome Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson, and the Harrison twins. Coupled with the return of Poythress and Cauley-Stein, and UK could be a force to reckon with again. I think this team is much better than last year, led by Rande and Andrew Harrison.
The freshman class at Arizona will be good, and Kansas has three potential top 5 picks in Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Wayne Selden. Wiggins will be a preseason All-American as a freshman with an excellent chance to win the award. If he can prove to be an effective outside shooter, he will average 18-8 as a wing, and lead Kansas deep into the tournament. Kansas' freshman class will outshine the one at Kentucky.
Finally, will Jabari Parker be the go-to guy at Duke? He is a tremendous scorer, and will be lethal at the college level. Next to Sulaimon and Marshall Plumlee, Duke has a young big three that could lead to an ACC title this year.
6. Who will be the All-Americans?
Here are my pre-preseason picks- I have the right to change this in my official college basketball preview which will come out next month:
In no particular order, here are some players I expect to write about on the list next month,
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Alex Kirk/New Mexico
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Gary Harris/Michigan State
Mitch McGary/Michigan
Russ Smith/Louisville
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Kevin Pangos/Gonzaga
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Jerelle Benimon/Towson
Yogi Ferrell/Indiana
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
Briante Weber/VCU
Jerome Randle/Kentucky
7. What are the games to watch this season?
An early 10 I am looking forward to are:
Arizona vs. Michigan
Duke vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon vs. Georgetown
Duke vs. UCLA
VCU vs. Michigan (Would be 2nd round of Puerto Rico classic if all works out)
Gonzaga vs. Baylor (Would be 2nd round of Maui Invitational)
Syracuse vs. Indiana
Kansas vs. New Mexico
8. Who are the top teams heading into the season?
Here is my preseason top 15:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Michigan
6 Arizona
7 Gonzaga
8 Kentucky
9 Indiana
10 Duke
11 Marquette
12 Florida
13 VCU
14 New Mexico
15 Oregon
9. What teams are likely to disappoint?
Unfortunately, I think Syracuse and North Carolina, in particular, will take a step backwards this season. Syracuse doesn't have a go to player offensively, and doesn't have many shooters. Expect teams to pack the lane and make CJ Fair hit threes instead of getting to the rim, or the 8-12 foot range where he is so effective. North Carolina returns PJ Hairston, who has had a flurry of off court issues this offseason. I like Page at the point, and James has intriguing potential inside, but I like a lot of other ACC teams to knock off the Tar Heels this season. It looks like an NIT type of year.
Wichita State was a great story last year, but I don't see much of a chance for the Shockers to repeat their success. Likewise, don't expect another 30 win season from Memphis. Both teams could be NCAA tournament bound again, but expecting a deep run is overly optimistic.
10. Which conferences will be the strongest?
Here is my prediction of the top 5 conferences:
1. ACC
2. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. Pac 12
5. SEC
A Storm Is Coming
The clouds are dark and gloomy. Nearly black. Rain pounds the ground with force, causing rivers to flow wild to the point of breaking over the edge. No, I am not speaking of a horror movie- I am speaking of the state of college athletics as it pertains to illegal benefits, namely the paying of college athletes. Oklahoma State, and Les Miles, are amidst a scandal involving sex, drugs and money to players, allegedly (SI). Yahoo reported that 5 SEC players, and DJ Fluker being one, all received benefits in the tens-of-thousands of dollars range. Today, Arian Foster said Tennessee provided him with benefits out of necessity because he was living in very poor conditions. Given the current NCAA rules, expect eventual widespread sanctions.
Is it right? Fair? Justified to sanction these teams? Under the current rules, it is. Now you could give me your argument based on either side:
1. College athletes should be paid like employees because of their demanding task in addition to taking classes.
2. College athletes should not be paid because they already receive a free scholarship, and often on-campus housing and a meal plan.
I have heard both sides be very persuasive and convincing. Personally, all of the logistics about "who" is getting paid need to be figured out in any proposal. Do all athletes get a stipend, regardless of team affiliation? Do you get more if your team brings in more money? Is it based on physical ability? Again, this needs to be carefully planned, or the NCAA could create more of a recruiting bias than the one that currently exists.
Can these schools afford to pay athletes? If all athletes get paid, only the biggest D-1 football powers would be able to afford giving salaries to college athletes. This could eliminate small college schools from any sort of contention. Good-bye underdogs like Boise State. Because college presidents will be voting on this issue, I think they will elect to save as much money as possible.
I don't expect a substantial change on this issue for a long time. Too many factors need to come together- and fit together. And while it is against the rules, I anticipate there is a highly esteemed D-1 program already giving out a stipend to its athletes, but the world will never know because it is against the rules. Perhaps the best support that Universities can afford to pay college athletes: It is already rampant across college sports in a plethora of forms. Expect debate on this issue- its eventually going to get ugly. So, I persist that a storm is coming over college football: it could be in 6 months, 6 years or 16 years. I tend to think it will be later rather than sooner.
Is it right? Fair? Justified to sanction these teams? Under the current rules, it is. Now you could give me your argument based on either side:
1. College athletes should be paid like employees because of their demanding task in addition to taking classes.
2. College athletes should not be paid because they already receive a free scholarship, and often on-campus housing and a meal plan.
I have heard both sides be very persuasive and convincing. Personally, all of the logistics about "who" is getting paid need to be figured out in any proposal. Do all athletes get a stipend, regardless of team affiliation? Do you get more if your team brings in more money? Is it based on physical ability? Again, this needs to be carefully planned, or the NCAA could create more of a recruiting bias than the one that currently exists.
Can these schools afford to pay athletes? If all athletes get paid, only the biggest D-1 football powers would be able to afford giving salaries to college athletes. This could eliminate small college schools from any sort of contention. Good-bye underdogs like Boise State. Because college presidents will be voting on this issue, I think they will elect to save as much money as possible.
I don't expect a substantial change on this issue for a long time. Too many factors need to come together- and fit together. And while it is against the rules, I anticipate there is a highly esteemed D-1 program already giving out a stipend to its athletes, but the world will never know because it is against the rules. Perhaps the best support that Universities can afford to pay college athletes: It is already rampant across college sports in a plethora of forms. Expect debate on this issue- its eventually going to get ugly. So, I persist that a storm is coming over college football: it could be in 6 months, 6 years or 16 years. I tend to think it will be later rather than sooner.
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