The Confederations Cup ended today with Brazil winning 3-0 against the defending World Cup and Euro champ Spaniards. With a home field advantage in next summer's World Cup, one would have to think Brazil enters as the favorites, especially after exploiting Spain's seemingly unexploitable style.
- Brazil's 3 man front involving Fred, Hulk, and most importantly Neymar may be the best attacking trio in the world. Neymar is incredibly gifted with the ball at his foot, and made countless plays today for himself an teammates. His upcoming transfer to Barcelona should make him better, and more knowledgeable about many of the other Spaniards should Brazil and Spain meet again.
- Jesus Navas may be the most important player on the Spain squad that was highly heralded before today. His ability to change speeds, and create space on the wing gave Spain their best chances. Upon entering the game at the start of the second half today, he earned a penalty and a corner within a few minutes- though Sergio Ramos blew the opportunity. For a team now searching for an identity, I would suggest a 3 man front, as they like to play, involving Pedro, Villa and Navas, while bringing on Torres and Fabregas as the next two options. Saldado may be better suited playing Xavi's current role- a spot he may lose before the World Cup kicks off next summer.
- The United States' team has played better as of late, but miscues in the back and in central midfield are still worrisome. Michael Bradley is solid as a central midfielder, but Jermaine Jones is a yellow card waiting to happen, and is often out of position after an attack. Omar Gonzales and Matt Besler have looked pretty good overall in center defense, though outside back play has been less ideal. For the time being, Demarcus Beasley and Brad Evans solve the issue some, though I have to think Eric Lichaj and Fabian Johnson need more looks at outside back.
- Up top the Americans' long standing issue of poor striker play seems to be solved by Jozy Altidore, who has scored in his past 4 games. As our #9 forward, he has been good playing quick one-twos with Dempsey- a relationship that needs to keep blossoming. Here is how I would line up the American squad for the start of the World Cup, though lots could change until that day.
ST- Jozy Altidore
RF- Clint Dempsey
LF- Eddie Johnson
CAM- Graham Zusi
RCDM- Michael Bradley
LCDM- Jermaine Jones
RB- Brad Evans
CB- Omar Gonzales
CB- Matt Besler
LB- Eric Lichaj
GK- Tim Howard
Bench:
GK- Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando
DEF- DeMarcus Beasley, Geoff Cameron, Maurice Edu, Timmy Chandler
MID- Landon Donovan, Fabian Johnson, Brek Shea, Edgar Castillo
FWD- Terrence Boyd, Hercules Gomez
With Johnson and Dempsey on the wings, the team has speedy players who like the ball at their feet, but can also make runs off of Altidore. Zusi is a good choice to play behind Altidore, rather than on the wing, because he makes plays so well.
My guesses for the top 8 seeds:
1 Brazil (host nation)
2 Spain
3 Germany
4 Italy
5 Argentina
6 Netherlands
7 Uruguay
8 England
Sunday, June 30, 2013
2014 NBA Draft
This is premature. The draft in 2014 is 362 days away (and more if they move it back a week, as rumored). This is a good way to show what expectations are entering the season, and tell of the players I expect to perform highly and get drafted next year. Will this big board reflect the talent level even next month? Maybe not. But one has to start somewhere. As every other big board should/will have, Andrew Wiggins leads the way as the best prospect in the NBA draft since Oden/Durant.
James McAdoo, PF, PJ Hairston, SG and Marcus Paige, PG- North Carolina
Doug McDermott SF/Creighton
Jerami Grant and CJ Fair- Syracuse
Sam Dekker SF/Wisconsin
Adreian Payne, PF, Brendan Dawson, SF, and Keith Appling, PG- Michigan State
Kaleb Tarzewski, C, and Brandon Ashley, SF- Arizona
Leo Westermann PG/France
Nigel Williams-Gross PG/Washington
- Andrew Wiggins SG/Kansas
- Julius Randle PF/Kentucky
- Jabari Parker SF/Duke
- Joel Embiid C/Kansas
- Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona
- Dante Exum G/Australia (could choose to go to college after this year instead)
- Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia
- Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State
- Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky
- Dario Saric SF/Croatia
- Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan
- Gary Harris SG/Michigan
- Jarnell Stokes PF/Tennessee
- Montrezl Harris F/Louisville
- Chris Walker SF/Florida
- Semaj Christon PG/Xavier
- Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky
- Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky
- Jahii Carson PG/Arizona State
- LaQuinton Ross SG/Ohio State
- James Young SF/Kentucky
- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
- Rasheed Sulaimon SG/Duke
- Aaron Harrison SG/Kentucky
- Dakari Johnson C/Kentucky
- Mitch McGary PF/Michigan
- TJ Warren SF/NC State
- Spencer Dinwiddie PG/Colorado
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF/Arizona
- Russ Smith G/Louisville
James McAdoo, PF, PJ Hairston, SG and Marcus Paige, PG- North Carolina
Doug McDermott SF/Creighton
Jerami Grant and CJ Fair- Syracuse
Sam Dekker SF/Wisconsin
Adreian Payne, PF, Brendan Dawson, SF, and Keith Appling, PG- Michigan State
Kaleb Tarzewski, C, and Brandon Ashley, SF- Arizona
Leo Westermann PG/France
Nigel Williams-Gross PG/Washington
Saturday, June 29, 2013
NBA Draft Grades
I typically don't like giving out grades for drafts, as it truly takes a few years to tell how good a team's draft was. I am going to diverge from my usual process and give grades out this year, and in a few years we will see if the value that teams thought they had truly existed. Here are the draft grades for last night's epic event:
Atlanta: Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto- I like what Atlanta did. They added two high potential players who will likely stay in Europe another year. That is ok because the Hawks are rebuilding. Muscala can contribute as a stretch 5, and Neto has potential as a draft and stash pick. Grade: B
Boston: Kelly Olynyk, Colton Iverson- Boston made headlines not for their draft, but for the trade they made that sent Garnett, Pierce and Terry to Brooklyn for Gerald Wallace, KrisKardashian Humphries, and 3 first round picks. Rebuilding is about to start in Boston, which is why taking a low ceiling player like Olynyk is puzzling. He will play minutes right away, but is not a terrific athlete, and plays a similar role as Jeff Green will play more effectively. I'm puzzled by the moves Boston made. Grade: D
Brooklyn: Mason Plumlee- Plumlee will likely be a 7th man as his ceiling, though he can step into a role right away. Given that the team has over 80 million dollars committed to their new starting 5 of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett and Lopez, adding an NBA ready role player, and a cheap one, was a good pick rather than taking a player more suited for success in a few years. Grade: B+
Charlotte: Cody Zeller- Zeller was a surprising pick with Noel and Len still available. He is very skilled, but might not help the Bobcats dig their way out of the Eastern Conference cellar. Noel would have been a better pick, which would have emphasized defense next to Kidd-Gilchrist. I am higher on Zeller than most, and see him as a definite starter at the 4 spot, but this seemed like a slight reach. Grade: C+
Chicago: Tony Snell, Erik Murphy- I would have taken Snell in the second round. He is a great athlete and a good shooter, but he is far away from competing at an NBA level, and other players at a similar position could have been better suited to play in Chicago. With Deng and Butler already in place, I really question this pick for Chicago. Murphy is a solid stretch 4, but I have to think the Bulls need a guard. Grade: C-
Cleveland: Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix- Cleveland shocked the world when they took Bennett #1- my 9th ranked player in the draft. With Tristan Thompson in place already at the 4, and Bennett's weight issues and lack of quickness holding him back from playing the 3, I have to think the Cavs overthought this top pick. Karasev is a terrific shooter, and Felix could be a solid role player, but this draft grade has to reflect the reach Cleveland made at the top of this draft. Grade: C+
Dallas: Shane Larkin, Ricky Ledo- Dallas moved back twice and traded Cunningham in an effort to save salary cap space to lure Dwight Howard. Larkin is a terrific shooter and should be able to perform better than Darren Collison in due time. Ledo is a boom or bust pick with significant red flags. At pick 43, a good value. Grade: B
Denver: Erick Green, Joeffrey Lauvergne- Denver added Green, the 46th pick, by trading Rudy Gobert's draft rights. Green fits as a scorer off the bench, and will lessen the amount of time Brian Shaw will have to play Andre Miller. I thought he was a great pick in round 2. I am befuddled over their trade of Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur and the rights to Lauvergne. Koufos was a very good center for Denver in a limited starter role, but the trade makes way for JaVale McGee to play more minutes. Now who does Denver have as a second center option? Grade: B-
Detroit: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Mitchell, Peyton Siva- Detroit added very good value in this draft. Pope fills a need at SG, and shows the team still has faith in Brandon Knight. Mitchell could have gone in the late lottery without a lot of head-scratching, so getting him at 37 is remarkable. Siva has definite backup PG potential. I think Detroit could secure a playoff spot next year, but the key will be Knight's development next to Pope, Monroe and Drummond. Grade: A-
Golden State: Nemanja Nedovic- I wanted Nedovic in Portland. He was a great value pick at 30, and it would not surprise me to see him filling part of the role Jarrett Jack's likely departure will leave. If he comes over right away, many teams in the low to mid 20s will be giving their best Homer Simpson "doh" impression. A great pick. Grade: B+
Houston: Isaiah Canaan- Jeremy Lin is solid, though he isn't a player who can play 40mpg effectively. Canaan is an upgrade at the backup one spot, and has shooting that Kevin McHale will love. A good pick. Grade: B
Indiana: Solomon Hill- Really? Solomon Hill was a fringe second round pick. To take him in the first round is laughable. Hill was a 4 year player who can play some minutes, but I think Indiana is overly optimistic here. I expected so much more from Kevin Pritchard. Grade: F
LA Clippers: Reggie Bullock- The Clippers needed shooting. They got shooting. Bullock has an NBA body, and can fill in the role Caron Butler plays once his deal expires. I like this pick, and it fills a need. Bonus: They still have Bledsoe! Grade: B
LA Lakers: Ryan Kelly- The Lakers pick of Kelly is okay. They needed someone to stretch the 4 and make 3s- both things he can do. I am concerned over who he defends, and his athletic ability. I have a hard time seeing him playing minutes, even for an aging Lakers squad. Grade: C
Memphis: Jamaal Franklin, Janis Timma- I was not in love with Franklin as a draft prospect, and thought he as overrated. The fall to #41 was further than I would have guessed, and Memphis got a steal this late in the draft process. Timma will likely never play in the NBA, and they would have been better served taking a forward like CJ Leslie. Grade: B
Miami: James Ennis- The Heat traded in to take the swingman from Long Beach State. Given the aging prospects on the end of that bench, Ennis brings some intrigue to the table. He is better than James Jones! Grade: B-
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nate Wolters: I give John Hammond a lot of credit for taking a chance on the Greek. He isn't ready yet, but I think will become an NBA starter some day. The Bucks did not need help in the frontcourt- as they have solid depth with Sanders, Henson, Ilyasova and Mbah A Moute- but could have used a shooting guard. With Redick leaving, and Ellis looking for money elsewhere (he won't get it), Milwaukee may have a tough time finding a two-guard. It looks like Hammond is close to hitting the reset button. Grade: B
Minnesota: Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng, Lorenzo Brown, Bojan Dubljevic- I think Minnesota got very good value out of their draft picks. Muhammad has a reputation for being selfish, though guards like Rubio and Ridnour especially will be putting him in a place where he needs to score. Dieng instantly upgrades the backup center spot, and is insurance if Pekovic plays elsewhere next season. Brown is the 5th PG on the roster, but was good value where they added him. Dubljevic is a sweet shooting 4 man who we won't hear from in a few years. Muhammad could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate. Who else stands out for it? Grade: A-
New Orleans: Pierre Jackson- The Pelicans selected Noel, but dealt him with a top 3 protected 2014 1st round pick for Jrue Holiday. Holiday was an All-Star at the point last year, and should help New Orleans new core built around Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. New Orleans now has Vasquez as a 6th man, and should be contenders for a low playoff seed this year. I like what they did. Grade: A-
New York Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr.- The Knicks fans actually cheered! Though I am less in love with this pick than they are. JR Smith will walk, and Shumpert will start at the 2, which left an opening for a SG who could stretch the floor on the bench. Hardaway is streaky and one-dimensional. He is athletic, but the team took a guy I had rated as an early rd. 2 pick in the first round. Grade: C+
Oklahoma City: Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Grant Jerrett- I am surprised OKC took so many rookies. I bet all three end up in the D-League. Adams has the most potential in the group, but is 2 years away from being anything more than a 5th big man. Roberson should progress nicely if he can develop an outside jump shot- but this is Sam Presti's attempt to, again, prove he is smarter than the rest of the league. Abrines could be a nice addition as a draft and stash, and Jerrett is good value as a non-guaranteed stretch 4. Still have to think Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb will get lots more minutes than these guys. Grade: B
Orlando Magic: Victor Oladipo, Romero Osby- Oladipo may have been my favorite player in the draft, and was an excellent selection by Rob Hennigan. He will fit nicely next to Vucevic and Harris, and helps speed up the rebuilding process in Orlando. A top pick next year could put them back into the playoff picture. Also- Romero Osby? I hate this pick about as much as the Solomon Hill pick. He would have gone undrafted in the D-League draft. Grade: B+
Philadelphia: Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Arsalan Kazemi- Philadelphia hit the reset button by trading for Noel and a 2014 rd. 1 pick by giving up Holiday. The team will not be good next year, which increases the odds of having 2 very high first round picks in a loaded draft class. Noel and Carter-Williams will be given playing time and opportunities to make mistakes. I think they will wind up ahead of the learning curve. Kazemi is an energy guy who teammates will love playing with. I think Hinkie nailed this draft. Grade: A+
Phoenix: Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, Alex Oriakhi- Phoenix is going to be bad again next year. Len has a tremendous upside, but he will be stuck behind Gortat in year one, and on a team with a bunch of young players who have not reached their potential. Goodwin was a solid value pick, and should be given time to prove he belongs. I would be surprised if Oriakhi makes the team. Overall, Phoenix is banking on picking high again next year. Grade: B-
Portland: CJ McCollum, Allan Crabbe, Jeff Withey, Marko Todorovic- I think Neil Olshey did a wonderful job drafting for Portland. McCollum fills a need as a combo scoring guard who can play effectively with and without Lillard. He could be a summer league MVP. Crabbe and Withey were both late first round talents, so to get them in the second round was perfect. Withey likely is our backup center next year, assuming Leonard starts- a big assumption at this point- and Crabbe will get minutes to backup Matthews. Todorovic is young, and playing on a good Barcelona team. He should keep getting better overseas. I love what Portland did. Grade: A
Sacramento: Ben McLemore, Ray McCallum- Sacramento did well. McLemore was my 4th rated prospect, and others had him atop their boards. To get him at 7 was tremendous. He doesn't have a huge ego, but has a smooth game. In a locker room with Cousins and Evans, he will need to find a role model somewhere. McCallum is another average PG who will fight for minutes with Jimmer and Thomas. That spot is still up for grabs. Grade: B+
San Antonio: Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas- Jean-Charles had a huge Nike Hoop Summit, which boosted his stock into the end of the first round. Look for him to play in France for one more year before joining fellow Frenchmen Parker and even Diaw. Thomas is a lethal scorer who doesn't know the word defense. Under Popovich, he could find a role as a stretch 4. Grade: B-
Toronto Raptors: No picks, No Grade
Utah: Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert- I really like what Utah did. They needed a PG, and got the best one in the draft. They needed a center to replace Al Jefferson (likely) and they added the longest guy in the draft. They had needs and filled them without giving much up. Utah will fight for a playoff spot again next year. Grade: B+
Washington: Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.- Porter to Washington was a phenomenal fit. He will start at the 3 next to Wall and Beal, in a very promising 1-3 rotation for the next few years. Rice can be a terrific bench scorer without the mindset of Jordan Crawford. They still need some big men in the next few years, and John Wall should get a max deal, but Washington has enough pieces to make a run for the 8th seed next year. They did well. Grade: A-
Bonus- If I were a GM I would be trying to get my hands on CJ Leslie, Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Paul. These 3 guys will all make a roster next year, and have the best chances to make us wonder why 30 teams passed twice on them.
Atlanta: Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto- I like what Atlanta did. They added two high potential players who will likely stay in Europe another year. That is ok because the Hawks are rebuilding. Muscala can contribute as a stretch 5, and Neto has potential as a draft and stash pick. Grade: B
Boston: Kelly Olynyk, Colton Iverson- Boston made headlines not for their draft, but for the trade they made that sent Garnett, Pierce and Terry to Brooklyn for Gerald Wallace, Kris
Brooklyn: Mason Plumlee- Plumlee will likely be a 7th man as his ceiling, though he can step into a role right away. Given that the team has over 80 million dollars committed to their new starting 5 of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett and Lopez, adding an NBA ready role player, and a cheap one, was a good pick rather than taking a player more suited for success in a few years. Grade: B+
Charlotte: Cody Zeller- Zeller was a surprising pick with Noel and Len still available. He is very skilled, but might not help the Bobcats dig their way out of the Eastern Conference cellar. Noel would have been a better pick, which would have emphasized defense next to Kidd-Gilchrist. I am higher on Zeller than most, and see him as a definite starter at the 4 spot, but this seemed like a slight reach. Grade: C+
Chicago: Tony Snell, Erik Murphy- I would have taken Snell in the second round. He is a great athlete and a good shooter, but he is far away from competing at an NBA level, and other players at a similar position could have been better suited to play in Chicago. With Deng and Butler already in place, I really question this pick for Chicago. Murphy is a solid stretch 4, but I have to think the Bulls need a guard. Grade: C-
Cleveland: Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix- Cleveland shocked the world when they took Bennett #1- my 9th ranked player in the draft. With Tristan Thompson in place already at the 4, and Bennett's weight issues and lack of quickness holding him back from playing the 3, I have to think the Cavs overthought this top pick. Karasev is a terrific shooter, and Felix could be a solid role player, but this draft grade has to reflect the reach Cleveland made at the top of this draft. Grade: C+
Dallas: Shane Larkin, Ricky Ledo- Dallas moved back twice and traded Cunningham in an effort to save salary cap space to lure Dwight Howard. Larkin is a terrific shooter and should be able to perform better than Darren Collison in due time. Ledo is a boom or bust pick with significant red flags. At pick 43, a good value. Grade: B
Denver: Erick Green, Joeffrey Lauvergne- Denver added Green, the 46th pick, by trading Rudy Gobert's draft rights. Green fits as a scorer off the bench, and will lessen the amount of time Brian Shaw will have to play Andre Miller. I thought he was a great pick in round 2. I am befuddled over their trade of Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur and the rights to Lauvergne. Koufos was a very good center for Denver in a limited starter role, but the trade makes way for JaVale McGee to play more minutes. Now who does Denver have as a second center option? Grade: B-
Detroit: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Mitchell, Peyton Siva- Detroit added very good value in this draft. Pope fills a need at SG, and shows the team still has faith in Brandon Knight. Mitchell could have gone in the late lottery without a lot of head-scratching, so getting him at 37 is remarkable. Siva has definite backup PG potential. I think Detroit could secure a playoff spot next year, but the key will be Knight's development next to Pope, Monroe and Drummond. Grade: A-
Golden State: Nemanja Nedovic- I wanted Nedovic in Portland. He was a great value pick at 30, and it would not surprise me to see him filling part of the role Jarrett Jack's likely departure will leave. If he comes over right away, many teams in the low to mid 20s will be giving their best Homer Simpson "doh" impression. A great pick. Grade: B+
Houston: Isaiah Canaan- Jeremy Lin is solid, though he isn't a player who can play 40mpg effectively. Canaan is an upgrade at the backup one spot, and has shooting that Kevin McHale will love. A good pick. Grade: B
Indiana: Solomon Hill- Really? Solomon Hill was a fringe second round pick. To take him in the first round is laughable. Hill was a 4 year player who can play some minutes, but I think Indiana is overly optimistic here. I expected so much more from Kevin Pritchard. Grade: F
LA Clippers: Reggie Bullock- The Clippers needed shooting. They got shooting. Bullock has an NBA body, and can fill in the role Caron Butler plays once his deal expires. I like this pick, and it fills a need. Bonus: They still have Bledsoe! Grade: B
LA Lakers: Ryan Kelly- The Lakers pick of Kelly is okay. They needed someone to stretch the 4 and make 3s- both things he can do. I am concerned over who he defends, and his athletic ability. I have a hard time seeing him playing minutes, even for an aging Lakers squad. Grade: C
Memphis: Jamaal Franklin, Janis Timma- I was not in love with Franklin as a draft prospect, and thought he as overrated. The fall to #41 was further than I would have guessed, and Memphis got a steal this late in the draft process. Timma will likely never play in the NBA, and they would have been better served taking a forward like CJ Leslie. Grade: B
Miami: James Ennis- The Heat traded in to take the swingman from Long Beach State. Given the aging prospects on the end of that bench, Ennis brings some intrigue to the table. He is better than James Jones! Grade: B-
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nate Wolters: I give John Hammond a lot of credit for taking a chance on the Greek. He isn't ready yet, but I think will become an NBA starter some day. The Bucks did not need help in the frontcourt- as they have solid depth with Sanders, Henson, Ilyasova and Mbah A Moute- but could have used a shooting guard. With Redick leaving, and Ellis looking for money elsewhere (he won't get it), Milwaukee may have a tough time finding a two-guard. It looks like Hammond is close to hitting the reset button. Grade: B
Minnesota: Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng, Lorenzo Brown, Bojan Dubljevic- I think Minnesota got very good value out of their draft picks. Muhammad has a reputation for being selfish, though guards like Rubio and Ridnour especially will be putting him in a place where he needs to score. Dieng instantly upgrades the backup center spot, and is insurance if Pekovic plays elsewhere next season. Brown is the 5th PG on the roster, but was good value where they added him. Dubljevic is a sweet shooting 4 man who we won't hear from in a few years. Muhammad could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate. Who else stands out for it? Grade: A-
New Orleans: Pierre Jackson- The Pelicans selected Noel, but dealt him with a top 3 protected 2014 1st round pick for Jrue Holiday. Holiday was an All-Star at the point last year, and should help New Orleans new core built around Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson. New Orleans now has Vasquez as a 6th man, and should be contenders for a low playoff seed this year. I like what they did. Grade: A-
New York Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr.- The Knicks fans actually cheered! Though I am less in love with this pick than they are. JR Smith will walk, and Shumpert will start at the 2, which left an opening for a SG who could stretch the floor on the bench. Hardaway is streaky and one-dimensional. He is athletic, but the team took a guy I had rated as an early rd. 2 pick in the first round. Grade: C+
Oklahoma City: Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Grant Jerrett- I am surprised OKC took so many rookies. I bet all three end up in the D-League. Adams has the most potential in the group, but is 2 years away from being anything more than a 5th big man. Roberson should progress nicely if he can develop an outside jump shot- but this is Sam Presti's attempt to, again, prove he is smarter than the rest of the league. Abrines could be a nice addition as a draft and stash, and Jerrett is good value as a non-guaranteed stretch 4. Still have to think Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb will get lots more minutes than these guys. Grade: B
Orlando Magic: Victor Oladipo, Romero Osby- Oladipo may have been my favorite player in the draft, and was an excellent selection by Rob Hennigan. He will fit nicely next to Vucevic and Harris, and helps speed up the rebuilding process in Orlando. A top pick next year could put them back into the playoff picture. Also- Romero Osby? I hate this pick about as much as the Solomon Hill pick. He would have gone undrafted in the D-League draft. Grade: B+
Philadelphia: Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Arsalan Kazemi- Philadelphia hit the reset button by trading for Noel and a 2014 rd. 1 pick by giving up Holiday. The team will not be good next year, which increases the odds of having 2 very high first round picks in a loaded draft class. Noel and Carter-Williams will be given playing time and opportunities to make mistakes. I think they will wind up ahead of the learning curve. Kazemi is an energy guy who teammates will love playing with. I think Hinkie nailed this draft. Grade: A+
Phoenix: Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, Alex Oriakhi- Phoenix is going to be bad again next year. Len has a tremendous upside, but he will be stuck behind Gortat in year one, and on a team with a bunch of young players who have not reached their potential. Goodwin was a solid value pick, and should be given time to prove he belongs. I would be surprised if Oriakhi makes the team. Overall, Phoenix is banking on picking high again next year. Grade: B-
Portland: CJ McCollum, Allan Crabbe, Jeff Withey, Marko Todorovic- I think Neil Olshey did a wonderful job drafting for Portland. McCollum fills a need as a combo scoring guard who can play effectively with and without Lillard. He could be a summer league MVP. Crabbe and Withey were both late first round talents, so to get them in the second round was perfect. Withey likely is our backup center next year, assuming Leonard starts- a big assumption at this point- and Crabbe will get minutes to backup Matthews. Todorovic is young, and playing on a good Barcelona team. He should keep getting better overseas. I love what Portland did. Grade: A
Sacramento: Ben McLemore, Ray McCallum- Sacramento did well. McLemore was my 4th rated prospect, and others had him atop their boards. To get him at 7 was tremendous. He doesn't have a huge ego, but has a smooth game. In a locker room with Cousins and Evans, he will need to find a role model somewhere. McCallum is another average PG who will fight for minutes with Jimmer and Thomas. That spot is still up for grabs. Grade: B+
San Antonio: Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas- Jean-Charles had a huge Nike Hoop Summit, which boosted his stock into the end of the first round. Look for him to play in France for one more year before joining fellow Frenchmen Parker and even Diaw. Thomas is a lethal scorer who doesn't know the word defense. Under Popovich, he could find a role as a stretch 4. Grade: B-
Toronto Raptors: No picks, No Grade
Utah: Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert- I really like what Utah did. They needed a PG, and got the best one in the draft. They needed a center to replace Al Jefferson (likely) and they added the longest guy in the draft. They had needs and filled them without giving much up. Utah will fight for a playoff spot again next year. Grade: B+
Washington: Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.- Porter to Washington was a phenomenal fit. He will start at the 3 next to Wall and Beal, in a very promising 1-3 rotation for the next few years. Rice can be a terrific bench scorer without the mindset of Jordan Crawford. They still need some big men in the next few years, and John Wall should get a max deal, but Washington has enough pieces to make a run for the 8th seed next year. They did well. Grade: A-
Bonus- If I were a GM I would be trying to get my hands on CJ Leslie, Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Paul. These 3 guys will all make a roster next year, and have the best chances to make us wonder why 30 teams passed twice on them.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
NBA Draft- Instant Reaction
The Draft has come and gone, and we all must wait 365 more days for the next one- the best sports event of the year. Here are some instant thoughts.
*Winners and Losers will come later tonight or tomorrow
- Boston traded their present away. They gave up Pierce, Jet and Garnett for what is likely 3 first round picks in the 20s, 30 million dollars of Gerald Wallace, 12 million dollars of Chris Humphries and a few 12th men. It's going to be a rough few years for Boston fans- better hope Danny Ainge has a plan.
- Have to love what Portland did. McCollum, Crabbe and Withey were all in my top 30, and all filled needs. Have to give major props to Neil Olshey.
- Anthony Bennett #1? Cleveland reached for the 3rd straight year, snagging the #9 player on my big board. As an undersized power forward, I am confused as to how he fits with Tristan Thompson already in place. If they try to play him at the 3 spot, the experiment won't go well.
- Zeller went before Len and Noel. I would have lost a lot of money had someone made that bet with me before the draft. I love Zeller's skill, but he doesn't have the upside of Len or Noel. I think Noel is the top player in the draft, and Philadelphia will be happy to have him, though Jrue Holiday was a steep price to pay. Speaking of that trade...
- Holiday is an interesting fit in New Orleans, and I like the move. Noel wasn't fitting a need, and ideally (to them) the pick they gave up will not be that high. For a Philadelphia team in need of a rebuild, the pieces they added were remarkable. In a strong draft next year, they could add an impact player.
- CJ Leslie and Jackie Carmichael were not drafted despite being rated in my top 40. They have a great chance to make a roster somewhere and have an impact as an undrafted free agent. Both players would have been better picks than the random forward (Osby) that Orlando picked at 51.
- Thought the ESPN crew did a great job tonight. Bill Simmons/Jalen Rose and Jay Bilas were all compatible with each other, and Rece Davis does a nice job hosting. 2014 draft should feature a similar lineup.
- Simmons made a joke about Atlanta hiring David Kahn as a consultant after the team selected back to back point guards (Larkin dealt to Dallas.) This was the joke of the night.
- Quick hit winners: Philadelphia, Portland, Atlanta, Golden State
- Quick hit losers: Boston, Indiana, Phoenix, Toronto
*Winners and Losers will come later tonight or tomorrow
- Boston traded their present away. They gave up Pierce, Jet and Garnett for what is likely 3 first round picks in the 20s, 30 million dollars of Gerald Wallace, 12 million dollars of Chris Humphries and a few 12th men. It's going to be a rough few years for Boston fans- better hope Danny Ainge has a plan.
- Have to love what Portland did. McCollum, Crabbe and Withey were all in my top 30, and all filled needs. Have to give major props to Neil Olshey.
- Anthony Bennett #1? Cleveland reached for the 3rd straight year, snagging the #9 player on my big board. As an undersized power forward, I am confused as to how he fits with Tristan Thompson already in place. If they try to play him at the 3 spot, the experiment won't go well.
- Zeller went before Len and Noel. I would have lost a lot of money had someone made that bet with me before the draft. I love Zeller's skill, but he doesn't have the upside of Len or Noel. I think Noel is the top player in the draft, and Philadelphia will be happy to have him, though Jrue Holiday was a steep price to pay. Speaking of that trade...
- Holiday is an interesting fit in New Orleans, and I like the move. Noel wasn't fitting a need, and ideally (to them) the pick they gave up will not be that high. For a Philadelphia team in need of a rebuild, the pieces they added were remarkable. In a strong draft next year, they could add an impact player.
- CJ Leslie and Jackie Carmichael were not drafted despite being rated in my top 40. They have a great chance to make a roster somewhere and have an impact as an undrafted free agent. Both players would have been better picks than the random forward (Osby) that Orlando picked at 51.
- Thought the ESPN crew did a great job tonight. Bill Simmons/Jalen Rose and Jay Bilas were all compatible with each other, and Rece Davis does a nice job hosting. 2014 draft should feature a similar lineup.
- Simmons made a joke about Atlanta hiring David Kahn as a consultant after the team selected back to back point guards (Larkin dealt to Dallas.) This was the joke of the night.
- Quick hit winners: Philadelphia, Portland, Atlanta, Golden State
- Quick hit losers: Boston, Indiana, Phoenix, Toronto
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Updated NBA Mock Draft
In this version, I will go over best and worst case comparisons, and talk about the draft range and fits for each player. In the past, I have done a lot of talking about what a player brings, so, I will be slightly moving away from that for this edition. The NBA Draft is tomorrow at 4pm (West Coast), which means the first pick will be around 430.
- Cleveland- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky- Best Case: Ben Wallace, Worst Case: Larry Sanders, Range on Draft night: 1-2. Noel fits better with Orlando, next to Vucevic, but Cleveland should take him because he is the best player in the draft. Alex Len is my #5 player, and should not go #1.
- Orlando- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana- Best Case: Dwyane Wade, Worst Case: Better Tony Allen, Range on Draft night: 2-5. Oladipo probably doesn't become the next Dwyane Wade, but it would not surprise me if he becomes an All-Star at some point in his career. He and Noel have the best shot at it. McLemore could be a fit here as well.
- Washington- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV- Best Case: Larry Johnson, Worst Case: Draymond Green, Range: 3-8. For the record, I would not take Bennett in the top 7- he is ranked 9 on my board. I am hearing that John Wall wants Bennett, and that management is afraid of Porter's lack of elite attributes. It could be a smoke screen, but it sounds like Bennett will be the pick. If not Bennett, then Porter will be chosen here.
- Charlotte- Alex Len C/Maryland- Best Case: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Worst Case: Robert Swift, Range: 1-6. Len fits best in a role where he can earn instant minutes, and Charlotte fits that bill. They need a low post scorer, and Len is a versatile offensive player. He is a definite project, but the Bobcats are in a position to be patient. Don't be surprised to see Minnesota trade for this pick, McLemore and Porter will be in play if available.
- Phoenix- Cody Zeller PF/Indiana- Best Case: Chris Bosh, Worst Case: Josh McRoberts, Range: 4-11. Zeller has been linked to Phoenix as a potential trade partner with Portland involving Gortat. With reports of Zeller moving up in mocks, Phoenix may just take him at 5. He fills a need as a low post scorer, though other experts will say they need perimeter scoring more. I think drafting Zeller is a progressive step, and would keep Michael Beasley off the court.
- New Orleans- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown- Best Case: Sane Ron Artest, Worst Case: Jared Dudley, range: 3-6. Porter is a versatile player who could fit with any team, Phoenix and New Orleans among them. The Pelicans needs a capable small forward, and Porter fits the bill- AND he is not a combo forward, of which the Pelicans have too many Expect McLemore to get a long look here if available.
- Sacramento- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas- Best Case: Ray Allen, Worst Case: Brandon Rush, Range: 2-7. McLemore hasn't worked out well for many teams, but that won't defer Sacramento, who needs a competent shooting guard not named Tyreke Evans. McLemore is passive, which could work well with Cousins in that locker room. Burke and Carter-Williams will get looks here.
- Detroit- Trey Burke PG/Michigan- Best Case: Ty Lawson, Worst Case: Aaron Brooks, Range: 6-8. I think Burke's draft range is very comfortable- New Orleans, Sacramento or Detroit. With Sacramento and New Orleans passing, Burke falls into their laps, and Detroit can have another attempt at landing a point guard of the future after Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight could not hold down the spot. If they pass on Burke, it is because they prefer Carter Williams or McCollum, though all signs point to Burke.
- Minnesota- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia- Best Case: Sane JR Smith, Worst Case: Corey Brewer, Range: 7-15. Unless Minnesota trades up, or lands Marshon Brooks, expect this pick to be a shooting guard. While sources indicate Shabazz Muhammad is in the mix, Minnesota needs outside shooting and perimeter defense more than slashing and guard post-ups. KCP fits very well.
- Portland- CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh- Best Case: George Hill, Worst Case: Jimmer Fredette, Range: 5-12. McCollum is a terrific shooting point guard who can play both positions- and add depth that Portland desperately needs. Assuming trade rumors for Aldridge are indeed just rumors, I would be surprised if Portland took a big man unless Zeller slides. If McCollum goes 9, Caldwell-Pope could easily go 10.
- Philadelphia- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse- Best Case: Shaun Livingston, Worst Case: Kendall Marshall's rookie year, Range: 7-14. Carter-Williams would be the top PG prospect if he could shoot. Because Philadelphia already has Holiday- and because MCW can play both guard spots- the fit here is very good. Adams does not make sense as a project center here, as MCW can find rotation minutes right away.
- Oklahoma City- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh- Best Case: Shot Blocking BJ Mullens, Worst Case: Patrick O'Bryant, Range: 11-16. Supposedly Portland has some interest, though I don't think he goes at 10. Oklahoma City fits well because they have a need at backup center. Adams is also a solid long term project- and one OKC can afford to gamble on. This pick could be in play to trade up.
- Dallas- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia- Best Case: Rudy Fernandez, Worst Case: Steve Novak, Draft Range: 7-15. I think Karasev could be a surprise pick to Sacramento- if there is any team most likely to reach it is them- but he goes here to Dallas in an unsurprising move. He is a terrific shooter who can be stashed overseas for a year, and will preserve cap space.
- Utah- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga- Best Case: Andrea Bargnani, Worst Case: Fabricio Oberto, Range: 11-22. Olynyk is coveted because he is very skilled, though is he not a great athlete. Utah has a need for a skilled power forward, and they can afford to pass on a PG until 21, as all of the PG's in the tier above are now gone in this mock draft.
- Milwaukee- Shane Larkin PG/Miami- Best Case: Nate Robinson, Worst Case: Patty Mills, Range: 14-21. I would have to think Utah would be his ceiling and floor, but they'd most likely try to snag him at 21 rather than 14. Larkin fits in Milwaukee well, who could lose their starting backcourt. Larkin also adds needed outside shooting, and could pair well with JJ Redick if he is retained. Shabazz Muhammad could also go here.
- Boston- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany- Best Case: Darren Collison, Worst Case: Jeremy Pargo, Range: 14-23. Schroeder had a big Nike Hoop Summit, and has been compared to Rondo due to his athleticism and length. Boston doesn't shy away from players with character concerns, which makes Ricky Ledo another potential target, and Rondo's ACL means Boston could use one more PG.
- Atlanta- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA- Best Case: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Worst Case: Al Thornton, Range: 9-20. Muhammad has a wide draft range, beginning with Minnesota at #9. He fits in Atlanta as a scorer on the wing who can compliment Al Horford, and he has a drive to win that many prospects above him don't have. With two first round picks, Atlanta can afford to take a gamble here.
- Atlanta- Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece- Best Case: Nicolas Batum, Worst Case: Division II Basketball Player, Range: 12-29. His draft range is wide, but I think a team falls in love with him on draft day- and his enormous potential. His ceiling is very high, and his floor very low. I don't know how he can help Atlanta in the next few years, but the promise he offers will be too much to pass up- especially for a team with two picks. For similar logic, Gobert or Noguiera could be picked here as well.
- Cleveland- Tony Mitchell SF/North Texas- Best Case: Paul George, Worst Case: James Singleton, Range: 15-24. I believe Mitchell projects better as a small forward, which puts him into contention for Cleveland's #19 pick (though it may very well be traded). Their biggest need, Mitchell offers a high ceiling- and Cleveland is not afraid to take risks. Safer picks could involve Reggie Bullock or Mason Plumlee.
- Chicago- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville- Best Case: Marcus Camby, Worst Case: Hasheem Thabeet, Range: 17-26. Chicago needs a shooter and a big man who can fill the role Omer Asik had. Given the number of shooters available in free agency, and the cost of big men, Dieng may be a better pick here for Chicago. Other options could be Reggie Bullock, Allen Crabbe and Jeff Withey.
- Utah- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State- Best Case: Mo Williams Worst Case: Norris Cole, Range: 21-35. Canaan is loved by the Jazz front office, which means he could be the pick here at his ceiling. The Jazz need a long term option at the point guard spot, and Canaan shoots the ball well enough to hope he develops. Other options could be Larkin or Schroeder if they fall.
- Brooklyn- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil- Best Case: Larry Sanders, Worst Case: Hasheem Thabeet, range: 14-23. Nogueira is raw and rail thin, but at 7'0 and long he offers lots of potential. Brooklyn is capped out, and is an option to stash overseas for a few years. Other picks could be Rudy Gobert or Mason Plumlee.
- Indiana- Rudy Gobert C/France- Best Case: Dikembe Mutumbo, Worst Case: Shawn Bradley, Range: 12-30. Some teams love Gobert, others wouldn't touch him. I think Gobert lands closer to the Shawn Bradley end of the spectrum, but he does have tremendous upside. Kevin Pritchard has a history of liking European players, and, expect this pick to be stashed if it isn't traded (rumor: #23 and Gerald Green for Jimmer Fredette).
- New York- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State- Best Case: Kawhi Leonard, Worst Case: Sam Young, Draft Range: 17-35. Franklin can offer defense and energy, but his offensive game is very raw. Given his age, he has to develop a jump shot or be stuck on the end of a bench. New York will take the plunge, as they need perimeter defenders. They could take Jeff Withey as a backup 5 as well.
- LA Clippers- Erick Green PG/Virginia Tech- Best Case: Monta Ellis Worst Case: Toney Douglas, Range: 23-37. When I compare Green to Ellis, it has nothing to do with attitude. Green is a great scorer, and the Clippers need guard scoring to replace Chauncey Billups and potentially Eric Bledsoe. His ability to play both guard spots is a plus as well. They could go big with Plumlee or Withey as well.
- Minnesota- Jeff Withey C/Kansas- Best Case: Omer Asik, Worst Case: Greg Stiemsma, Range: 19-30. I have a hard time believing Withey does not go in the first round. He is already 24, but will be a 10 year backup center as his floor. He blocks shots, which Minnesota needs. Darko didn't work out, Withey should be a better choice in the post Kahn-era. This pick has been rumored to be involved in trade talks.
- Denver- Mason Plumlee C/Duke- Best Case: Brandan Wright, Worst Case: Miles Plumlee, Range: 16-27. I think this is Plumlee's floor. He is athletic, low usage, and does the dirty work. Denver doesn't have much of a need for him, but he is the best player available, and adds to their already deep bench. They could opt for Bullock or Crabbe as well.
- San Antonio- Allen Crabbe SG/California- Best Case: JJ Redick, Worst Case: Anthony Morrow, Range: 15-30. Crabbe can shoot- we all know that. Can he do more? Given the poor-ish guard play from Ginobili and Green in games 6 and 7, they may want to add some competition into the mix from Crabbe. The rich get richer here.
- Oklahoma City- Nemanja Nedovic PG/Serbia- Best Case: Goran Dragic, Worst Case: Petteri Koponen, Range: 28-45. Nedovic is an uber-athletic guard who could stay overseas for a year or two. He is more of an offensive player, and has potential at 21 years old. I love him as a prospect, and expect either San Antonio or Oklahoma City to take him on draft day.
- Phoenix- Ricardo Ledo SG/Providence- Best Case: Marcus Thornton, Worst Case: Marshon Brooks, Range: 16-38. Ledo has significant red flags- the only thing keeping him from a prosperous career in the NBA. He can really score the ball, and is worth the risk for Phoenix
- Cleveland- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina. Best Case: Jared Dudley, range: 19-32
- Oklahoma City- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell. Best Case: Channing Frye, range: 27-40
- Cleveland- Alex Abrines G/Spain. Best Case: Marco Belinelli, range: 28-40
- Houston- Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan. Best Case: Wesley Matthews, range: 20-35
- Philadelphia- Tony Snell SF/New Mexico. Best Case: Jared Cunningham, range: 24-38
- Sacramento- Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State. Best Case: Steve Blake, range: 26-39
- Detroit- Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Vipers. Best Case: Gerald Green, range: 20-40
- Washington- CJ Leslie F/NC State. Best Case: Dante Cunningham, range: 30-45
- Portland- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky. Best Case: Lance Stephenson, range: 31-45
- Portland- Livio Jean-Charles F/France. Best Case: Dante Cunningham, range: 28-40
- Memphis- Andre Roberson F/Colorado. Best Case: Landry Fields, range: 37-50
- Philadelphia- Colton Iverson C/Colorado State. Best Case: Joel Pryzbilla, range: 40-60
- Milwaukee- Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor. Best Case: Isaiah Thomas (UW), range: 31-44
- Dallas- Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State. Best Case: Kendall Marshall, range 42-53
- Portland- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State. Best Case: Carl Landry, range: 31-50
- Utah- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State. Best Case: Corey Brewer, range: 45-und
- Atlanta- Ray McCallum PG/Detroit. Best Case: Jerryd Bayless, range: 45-und
- LA Lakers- Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona. Best Case: Josh McRoberts, range: 40-und
- Chicago- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois. Best Case: Jordan Crawford, range: 45-und
- Atlanta- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro. Best Case: Joel Freeland, range: 35-50
- Orlando- Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota. Best Case: Nick Collison, range: 45-und
- Minnesota- James Ennis SG/Long Beach State. Best Case: Corey Brewer, range: 45-und
- Indiana- Peyton Siva PG/Louisvilla. Best Case: Cory Joseph, range: 50-und
- Washington- Raul Neto PG/Brazil. Best Case: Sergio Rodriguez, range: 50-und
- Memphis- Erik Murphy PF/Florida. Best Case: Matt Bonner, range: 50-und
- Detroit- Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro. Best Case: David Andersen, range: 50-und
- Phoenix- Daniel Theis PF/Germany. Best Case: Lou Amundson, range: 50-und
- San Antonio- Oleksandr Lypovyy SF/Ukraine. Best Case: Marquis Daniels, range: 50-und
- Minnesota- Augusto Lima PF/Brazil. Best Case: Reggie Evans, range: 50-und
- Memphis- Vander Blue G/Marquette. Best Case: Sundiata Gaines, range: 50-und
Monday, June 24, 2013
Updated Big Board- Top 60
- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
- Alex Len C/Maryland
- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
- Cody Zeller PF/Indiana
- CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh
- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
- Shabazz Muhammad SG/UCLA
- Michael Carter Williams PG/Syracuse
- Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece
- Tony Mitchell F/North Texas
- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
- Shane Larkin PG/Miami
- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany
- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
- Rudy Gobert C/France
- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
- Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia
- Mason Plumlee C/Duke
- Allan Crabbe SG/California
- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina
- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
- Ricky Ledo SG/Providence
- Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan
- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
- Tony Snell SF/New Mexico
- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
- Andre Roberson F/Colorado
- CJ Leslie F/NC State
- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
- Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Vipers
- Colton Iverson C/Colorado State
- Livio Jean Charles F/France
- Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor
- Alex Abrines SG/Spain
- Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State
- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State
- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
- Ray McCallum PG/Detroit
- Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State
- James Ennis SG/Long Beach State
- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro
- Erik Murphy PF/Florida
- Solomon Hill F/Arizona
- Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona
- Kenny Kadji PF/Miami
- Raul Neto PG/Brazil
- DeShaun Thomas SF/Ohio State
- Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota
- Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro
- James Southerland SF/Syracuse
- Peyton Siva PG/Louisville
Sunday, June 23, 2013
State of the Blazers- Part One
Thus far I have previewed the top 6 teams in the draft, and am now going to skip to Portland in the draft order. Portland is a team with a bright future- a team that contended far better than expected this season. LaMarcus Aldridge had a stellar year, and earned an All-Star appearance for the 2nd time. Damian Lillard emerged as the rookie of the year, and a point guard heavily coveted around the league. Nic Batum started out hot, but injuries plagued his season, and his effectiveness went down. These three players are reliable building blocks- and deep playoff caliber ones at that. Wesley Matthews is a solid starter, and is a good, albeit streaky, shooter. Combined with young talent in Meyers Leonard and Will Barton- who showed flashes at the end of the year- and European imports Freeland and Claver, the Blazers have a decent core moving into the summer, though it is absolutely imperative to expand on the team's depth, a major issue this past year. Here is the team's depth chart entering the summer, and draft on Thursday:
1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
QO- Maynor, 50/50 odds of resigning.
Notable FA- Hickson, likely to sign elsewhere
Euro rights held- Kostas Papanikolaou (Greece)
Stat Leaders:
Points: Aldridge (21.1)
Rebounds: Hickson (10.4)
Assists: Lillard (6.5)
Steals: Matthews (1.3)
Blocks: Aldridge (1.2)
The team has roughly 10 million dollars to spend this summer, and has 4 draft choices, 10, 39, 40 and 45 at their disposal. I would doubt the team picks 4 players, so expect some movement from the team on draft day. I am dividing up Blazers draft targets into 4 categories:
1. Victor Oladipo- I believe any trade up would have to be centered around Oladipo, the energetic 2 guard from Indiana. He ranks 2nd on my board, though could go between 2-5. It would cost lots to move up for him, likely Wesley Matthews and pick 10.
2. Nerlens Noel- I write this cautiously. Rumors afloat- and they seem to have some legs to them- have the Cavs favoring Alex Len for the number one overall pick (stay tuned for updates on this). If Noel were to fall some, Portland may want to make an offer (most likely the same as above). He does have injury concerns, but his defensive potential pairs well with what Aldridge wants in a center.
Pick 10 options: I'd be stunned if it wasn't one of these 5 players, ranked in order of Blazers' most likely preference.
1. CJ McCollum- McCollum is a combo guard from Lehigh who is a terrific shooter and scorer, though needs to improve as a point guard. He rebounds and defends well enough, but his on ball defense, especially, could improve. He would fit in as a 6th man option who could back up both guard spots.
2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- The SG from Georgia has had a rapid climb over the past few months up the draft board. He is a great shooter and defender, though is a shaky ball handler and decision maker. His potential makes him a very intriguing option, and he would be an option to start at the 2 in a few years.
3. Cody Zeller- Oladipo's Indiana teammate reminds me of a 6'11 David West. He is very skilled, and has range on his jump shot out to 20 feet. He is not a great defender, though he is a very good rebounder with a high motor. If the previous 2 players are gone, Zeller would likely be the best player available (#7 on my board).
4. Steven Adams- Adams is a 7'1 center from Pittsburgh who is a true shot blocking center with an NBA body. Unlike Leonard, he is incredibly raw offensively, and would have trouble scoring in any situation at the next level. He is a project, though physical specimens like him don't come around to often. For the record, I am against drafting Adams- as Leonard is our project center (don't need 2). However he is a possibility here.
5. Shabazz Muhammad- I don't think Shabazz would be the pick, but if the team wants a wing player, and McCollum and KCP are off the board, Muhammad would be the top available. He scores and rebounds well for a guard, but is a me-first player with red flags. He is a risky, but intriguing project.
Trade Down/Up: I don't see this as a true option for Portland unless they fall in love with a player and try to maneuver the draft board. Here are 2 players who could be targets:
1. Gorgui Dieng- I wouldn't have much of a problem with Dieng in the late lottery, but he most likely goes between 15-25. He is a terrific defender who needs to get stronger, and has a mid range jumpshot and solid post passing skills. He is more NBA ready than Adams would be.
2. Glen Rice Jr.- Rice Jr. was a D-League playoffs MVP who excelled playing a stretch 4 spot despite being a shooting guard. He has red flags from his college era, but there is no doubt that he dominated against good competition when given the chance. Character concerns scare me- I think he is more of an early round 2 prospect- but sources have linked Rice to Portland.
2nd round possibilities: Lots of options- positions likely dependent on who is taken at pick 10.
1. Nemanja Nedovic- I bet he goes in round 1 on draft day, but he could easily slip to Portland at 39/40. I have him ranked 23 due to his scoring ability and athleticism. His PG skills and defensive intensity need to improve, but he has too much potential to ignore. He could be one of the best values and sleepers in the draft.
2. Colton Iverson- Iverson reminds me of Przybilla some. The 7-footer from Colorado State has an NBA body, and is a fantastic rebounder. He would be a low-usage player who would most likely be a 5th big man in his first few years. If he can develop a more consistent mid range shot he will be a long term backup NBA center.
3. Andre Roberson- I think that players with one elite skill in round 2 are good options to take. Roberson is an elite rebounder off the wing, and has potential to be a small ball 4 if he can improve his outside shot (Corner 3 especially.) I really like Roberson's potential in this draft to make an impact as a 2nd round pick.
4. Brandon Paul- Guys who can score are always appreciated. Paul has deep range and can score in a variety of ways. Playing at Illinois, he was the go to player, and often was forced into poor shot selection. At the NBA level, he could wind up as a valuable role player.
5. Archie Goodwin- Goodwin had struggles at Kentucky, but at only 18 with his potential he could have a Lance Stephenson like effect as a rd. 2 pick. He was overrated coming out of high school, but still shows ability as a passer and slasher. With an improved outside shot and decision making, Goodwin could be a steal.
Part 2- Free Agency will come after the draft- stay tuned!
* New Big Board tomorrow!
1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
QO- Maynor, 50/50 odds of resigning.
Notable FA- Hickson, likely to sign elsewhere
Euro rights held- Kostas Papanikolaou (Greece)
Stat Leaders:
Points: Aldridge (21.1)
Rebounds: Hickson (10.4)
Assists: Lillard (6.5)
Steals: Matthews (1.3)
Blocks: Aldridge (1.2)
The team has roughly 10 million dollars to spend this summer, and has 4 draft choices, 10, 39, 40 and 45 at their disposal. I would doubt the team picks 4 players, so expect some movement from the team on draft day. I am dividing up Blazers draft targets into 4 categories:
- Trade Up
- Pick 10 options
- Trade down/Trade up with rd. 2's
- Round 2 options
1. Victor Oladipo- I believe any trade up would have to be centered around Oladipo, the energetic 2 guard from Indiana. He ranks 2nd on my board, though could go between 2-5. It would cost lots to move up for him, likely Wesley Matthews and pick 10.
2. Nerlens Noel- I write this cautiously. Rumors afloat- and they seem to have some legs to them- have the Cavs favoring Alex Len for the number one overall pick (stay tuned for updates on this). If Noel were to fall some, Portland may want to make an offer (most likely the same as above). He does have injury concerns, but his defensive potential pairs well with what Aldridge wants in a center.
Pick 10 options: I'd be stunned if it wasn't one of these 5 players, ranked in order of Blazers' most likely preference.
1. CJ McCollum- McCollum is a combo guard from Lehigh who is a terrific shooter and scorer, though needs to improve as a point guard. He rebounds and defends well enough, but his on ball defense, especially, could improve. He would fit in as a 6th man option who could back up both guard spots.
2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- The SG from Georgia has had a rapid climb over the past few months up the draft board. He is a great shooter and defender, though is a shaky ball handler and decision maker. His potential makes him a very intriguing option, and he would be an option to start at the 2 in a few years.
3. Cody Zeller- Oladipo's Indiana teammate reminds me of a 6'11 David West. He is very skilled, and has range on his jump shot out to 20 feet. He is not a great defender, though he is a very good rebounder with a high motor. If the previous 2 players are gone, Zeller would likely be the best player available (#7 on my board).
4. Steven Adams- Adams is a 7'1 center from Pittsburgh who is a true shot blocking center with an NBA body. Unlike Leonard, he is incredibly raw offensively, and would have trouble scoring in any situation at the next level. He is a project, though physical specimens like him don't come around to often. For the record, I am against drafting Adams- as Leonard is our project center (don't need 2). However he is a possibility here.
5. Shabazz Muhammad- I don't think Shabazz would be the pick, but if the team wants a wing player, and McCollum and KCP are off the board, Muhammad would be the top available. He scores and rebounds well for a guard, but is a me-first player with red flags. He is a risky, but intriguing project.
Trade Down/Up: I don't see this as a true option for Portland unless they fall in love with a player and try to maneuver the draft board. Here are 2 players who could be targets:
1. Gorgui Dieng- I wouldn't have much of a problem with Dieng in the late lottery, but he most likely goes between 15-25. He is a terrific defender who needs to get stronger, and has a mid range jumpshot and solid post passing skills. He is more NBA ready than Adams would be.
2. Glen Rice Jr.- Rice Jr. was a D-League playoffs MVP who excelled playing a stretch 4 spot despite being a shooting guard. He has red flags from his college era, but there is no doubt that he dominated against good competition when given the chance. Character concerns scare me- I think he is more of an early round 2 prospect- but sources have linked Rice to Portland.
2nd round possibilities: Lots of options- positions likely dependent on who is taken at pick 10.
1. Nemanja Nedovic- I bet he goes in round 1 on draft day, but he could easily slip to Portland at 39/40. I have him ranked 23 due to his scoring ability and athleticism. His PG skills and defensive intensity need to improve, but he has too much potential to ignore. He could be one of the best values and sleepers in the draft.
2. Colton Iverson- Iverson reminds me of Przybilla some. The 7-footer from Colorado State has an NBA body, and is a fantastic rebounder. He would be a low-usage player who would most likely be a 5th big man in his first few years. If he can develop a more consistent mid range shot he will be a long term backup NBA center.
3. Andre Roberson- I think that players with one elite skill in round 2 are good options to take. Roberson is an elite rebounder off the wing, and has potential to be a small ball 4 if he can improve his outside shot (Corner 3 especially.) I really like Roberson's potential in this draft to make an impact as a 2nd round pick.
4. Brandon Paul- Guys who can score are always appreciated. Paul has deep range and can score in a variety of ways. Playing at Illinois, he was the go to player, and often was forced into poor shot selection. At the NBA level, he could wind up as a valuable role player.
5. Archie Goodwin- Goodwin had struggles at Kentucky, but at only 18 with his potential he could have a Lance Stephenson like effect as a rd. 2 pick. He was overrated coming out of high school, but still shows ability as a passer and slasher. With an improved outside shot and decision making, Goodwin could be a steal.
Part 2- Free Agency will come after the draft- stay tuned!
* New Big Board tomorrow!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)