Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Blazers vs. Suns

In just over two hours, Portland and Phoenix will kick off their respective seasons.  Both teams in this match-up have varied goals.  Portland has high hopes of taking the next step into the playoff picture, while Phoenix is in position to take a step back, fading further from the playoff picture to help add a top talent from the 2014 draft.  That said, this Suns squad has young players with a desire to prove themselves, led by their potential leading scorer Eric Bledsoe.

Here are the projected starters for Portland tonight:
1 Lillard
2 Matthews
3 Batum
4 Aldridge
5 Lopez

No surprises here.  Look for Stotts to play around 10-11 guys, with Leonard as the wild card for a few minutes out of the backup rotation.  Mo Williams likely plays the most minutes off of the bench, though it will be intriguing to see the lineups Coach Terry Stotts pairs together once the starting unit earns some rest.  I would imagine we will see a backcourt of Lillard/Williams at some point, as well as a rotation of Robinson/Aldridge.  I hope to see Dorell Wright at the stretch 4 spot some too.

Matchup To Watch: Matthews vs. Bledsoe
Storyline to Follow:  Channing Frye plays again! 

Keys to the Game:
1 Win the turnover battle- The best way to keep a lesser team in the game is to give away possessions.  Winning the turnover battle, and keeping them under 12, will help the Blazers put the game away early.
2 Win the rebound battle- Can LA and Lopez rebound together effectively?  We saw a preview that it may be a sustainable starting duo in the preseason, but, the sample size is far too small to make any true judgements. I want to see tenacity on the boards tonight.
3 Lillard scores 20- Like it or not, Lillard is this team's go to player, and he will need to score early, and keep his foot on the pedal to pace the team's scoring output.

Prediction:  Blazers 101, Suns 91

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NBA Mock Draft 1.0

  1.  Philadelphia- Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas- Is there really any other option at this point?  No.  Unless Wiggins struggles or another player truly shines, this is the "Wiggins Draft."
  2.  Charlotte- Dante Exum PG/Australia- This would be a toss up between Randle and Exum, but given the recent signing of Al Jefferson I think Charlotte would opt for Exum.  He is an elite prospect who can play both guard positions, and would be a scorer that Charlotte needs.
  3.  Phoenix- Julius Randle PF/Kentucky- Phoenix is tanking, and gets Randle in this scenario.  A frontline of Randle/Len would be a very good start, and Phoenix would be one their way to a new future.
  4.  Boston- Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona- Gordon reminds me of Blake Griffin, and would be an immediate favorite of Rondo's- assuming he is still a Celtic.  Boston needs talent, and Gordon is best available.
  5.  Sacramento- Jabari Parker SF/Duke- Sacramento has been poor with the draft as of recent.  Ben McLemore should pan out, though, and matching him with Parker gives the Kings a high octane wing duo.
  6.  Utah- Joel Embiid C/Kansas- Utah lost much of their frontcourt depth, and adds Embiid to challenge Kanter for minutes.  He is a project, but long term offers potential All-Star appearances along the lines of a Roy Hibbert- a big if given how raw he is.
  7.  Orlando- Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State- Orlando's biggest preseason need is the one, assuming Oladipo is a 2 like most of the population believes.  Smart is smart (see what I did there?), and is an automatic improvement over Jameer Nelson.
  8.  Dallas- Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky- Dallas is going to miss the playoffs.  Jose Calderon will have a good season, but he is not the long term answer at the point.  Harrison is a good passer when he wants to be, and would find himself in a good situation in Dallas.
  9.  Toronto- Semaj Christon PG/Xavier- Toronto needs a PG most, and has to reach some here to take Christon.  He is a scoring guard, and an improving passer, which is important considering the shot happy wings on the Raptors.
  10.  Milwaukee- Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia- The Bucks go international again, adding the athltic slasher from Croatia.  Look for Hezonja to have a big season abroad.
  11.  LA Lakers- Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky- Chris Kaman is a stop gap.  Cauley-Stein is a great defender who must improve his offense this year.  Given the presence of Kobe Bryant for the foreseeable future, his developing offense can be nurtured.
  12.  Denver- Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan- Denver lost Iguodala, their best player.  Here they add GR3, who may one day be a similar player.  He needs to shoot better this year, but his NBA body and athleticism scream starting 3-man.
  13.  Atlanta- Dario Saric SF/Croatia- Saric could have been a lottery last year, but withdrew.  He is a point forward who needs to improve his shot and defense.  A lot of talent and potential is present with Saric, and Budenholzer knows from his days in SA that international players can be a terrific source on draft day.
  14.  Philadelphia (from NO)- Gary Harris SG/Michigan State- Philly added Wiggins earlier in this mock, and now adds the best shooter in the draft- assuming another great season from 3pt range- to pair with him.  Philly also will have Noel as a rookie next year.  If they land Wiggins, the tanking was worth it.
  15.  Washington- Mitch McGary C/Michigan- Washington acquired Gortat, but this team isn't built to be much more than a 7 or 8 seed in the East.  McGary is a great passing big man with a good post game, and could replace the expiring deal of Gortat if he walks.
  16.  Cleveland- Wayne Selden SG/Kansas- There are no guarantees Selden enters the draft, or falls this low if he does, but he is a terrific young wing with impressive athleticism.  He is an improving shooter and defender, and will play across from Wiggins at Kansas.
  17.  Memphis- James Young SF/Kentucky- Like Selden, Young is uber-athletic, and is somewhat raw at this point.  There are high expectations for Young, and I don't expect him to disappoint.  If he enters, he will be a first round pick in 2014.
  18.  Charlotte (from DET)- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor- Austin wasn't quite what he was expected to be as a freshman, but returns to Waco poised for a big season.  If he improves his efficiency and plays more harder and physical, he could still be a top 10 pick.
  19.  Phoenix (from MIN)- Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky- Poythress, like Austin, was slated at this point last year as a top 10 pick.  He didn't shoot well, and made poor decisions on the court.  He may not start at UK this year, but the talent level around him should bring out the best.
  20.  Charlotte (From POR)- Doug McDermott SF/Creighton- Charlotte cannot stay in the cellar much longer, so they add an NBA ready shooter in McDermott who could wind up being an Ersan Ilyasova like player.
  21.  Orlando (from NYK via DEN)- Montrezl Harrell F/Louisville- Harrell's turn to help lead Louisville has come.  He needs to prove he can defend both forward spots and rebound at a high rate to move into the lottery.
  22.  Boston (From BRK)- Jahii Carson PG/Arizona State- Rondo may not be a Celtic for long, and Carson could be a potential replacement.  He scores in bunches, and is very athletic for 5'11.  He could be a steal this low.
  23.  San Antonio- Aaron Harrison SG/Kentucky- The twin of Andrew Harrison (pick 8), Aaron is an off guard who is a better shooter than his brother.  He needs to work on his passing, and basketball IQ at UK.
  24.  Houston- Jarnell Stokes PF/Tennessee- Houston already has a few power forwards, but they don't have a high motor big man who rebounds as well as Stokes.  He fits next to Dwight Howard better than Terrence Jones.
  25.  Chicago- LaQuinton Ross SG/Ohio State- Chicago has needed an off guard ever since Rose came into the league.  Ross should be the go to player (not Craft) for Ohio State this year, and could be a riser up a lot of draft boards.
  26.  Utah (from GS)- Chris Walker SF/Florida- Billy Donovan's system should bring out the best in Walker, who does a little of everything.  If he is effective this year, 26 will be on the low end of his draft board.
  27.  Indiana- Vasilje Misic SG/Serbia- Kevin Pritchard hasn't had a problem drafting international players in the past, and the current roster may not have slots available next year.  A sweet shooting combo guard, Misic could be stashed for a few years.
  28.  Oklahoma City- Nikola Milutinov C/Serbia- Just like Misic above, Milutinov is one of Europe's best young players.  Oklahoma City can only stay with Perkins/Thabeet on the team for one more year, and Milutinov could be a good addition to Steven Adams.  Plus, wouldn't his name be an entertaining one for Adam Silver to read??
  29.  LA Clippers- Russ Smith G/Louisville- The Clippers may lose Jamal Crawford by the time the 2014 draft winds around.  Enter the player in the draft who most closely resembles him.  Smith gets a bad rep. for his inefficiency, but a more controlled senior year could put him in the first round picture.
  30.  Miami- Adreian Payne PF/Michigan State- Miami's bench has some aging components.  Payne is very athletic, and can score inside and out.  He could be a great backup to Chris Bosh, especially if the Michael Beasley situation does not work out.

Opening Night in the NBA

The NBA season begins in just under 7 hours.  6 teams kick off their schedule tonight, followed by the rest of the league (including Portland) tomorrow.  The season will not be defined by early games in the season for most teams, but down the stretch every game could count for many teams trying to get into the playoff picture or trying to move further from the playoff picture (Expect the best Tank-a-palooza ever this year!).  Here are a preview of tonight's games, beginning with MIA-CHI.

Of the games tonight, the biggest storyline is Derrick Rose's return to basketball.  After missing all of last season, Rose is, supposedly, back to his full strength and performing at, or better than, his previous athletic skill level. His recovery has prompted words of caution to other injured stars- Russell Westbrook and Rajon Rondo- about not coming back too soon.  If Westbrook and Rondo do not return, there are big implications for the records of both Oklahoma City and Boston.

Can Miami 3 peat?  It will be tougher, as the Eastern Conference is not as big of a cake-walk as the last few years, and the Western Conference provides a large depth of teams poised to make a run for the playoffs (potentially 12 teams?).  I think Miami will fall just short, as Dwyane Wade is beginning to regress athletically and still cannot shoot.  Chris Bosh needs to step up in a big way, or else LeBron will be forced into some of his old tactics in Cleveland that left the city without a championship.

Tonight??  Miami 97, Chicago 90

Indiana was the only team in the East last year to give the Heat a serious run, largely due to the emergence of Paul George.  Can he keep it up?  I think George is a likely All-Star, but a lot of Indiana's success could come down to how he meshes with Danny Granger (the team was better without him).  Without Granger tonight, and playing against the Magic, expect a big night from George to show he is still the best rising star in the Eastern Conference.

Orlando is tanking.  Oops, too blunt?  Vucevic, Harris and Oladipo form a three man rotation many teams would want, but as the top-3 options is this really a playoff team?  Far from it.  And that is exactly what the Orlando front office is banking on.   The success of the Magic season will come down to where they pick in the 2014 draft.  Andrew Wiggins would be a huge coup, as would Dante Exum or Julius Randle.  If they end up with Marcus Smart- a terrific prospect who could be a great NBA point guard- I am not sure the fate in Orlando is immediately improved.

Tonight??  Indiana 102, Orlando 88

The Clippers run LA.  Yeah, I said it.  I'll say it again:  THE CLIPPERS RUN LA!  While Lob City may be no more, Doc Rivers will have the Clippers team in a position to be the most feared team in the Western Conference.  Chris Paul i the most dependable PG in the league, and could easily average 10 assists per game given his two threats inside and the new shooters that have been placed around him.  While Donald Sterling could make a move that makes fans object, there is no denying how good this Clippers team can be, which is why I picked them to win the title this year.

The Lakers are stuck in the stage between competing and rebuilding.  Kobe is the face of the franchise, but will he be able to return as the same Kobe that Laker fans adore?  That has to be the million dollar question in LA.  If he is unable to return, shouldn't the Lakers look to rebuild?  I am sure lots of teams would love to make a deal for Pau Gasol, even when taking into consideration his massive salary.  Ditto goes for Steve Nash.  This team is currently capped out, but a dedication to rebuilding/tanking this season could give Lakerland the best chance of a quicker rise to prominence.  As far as tonight goes, expect a lot of wild shots from Nick Young, and a frustrated Steve Nash. 

Tonight??  Clippers 104, Lakers 83

Here is the status of what each team should be going for this year, not necessarily what they will do:  Playoffs or Tanking

East:
Atlanta- Tank
Boston- Tank
Chicago- Playoffs
Cleveland- Playoffs
Detroit- Playoffs
Indiana- Playoffs
Miami- Playoffs
Milwaukee- Tank
Brooklyn- Playoffs
New York- Playoffs
Orlando- Tank
Philadelphia- Tank
Washington- Playoffs
Charlotte- Tank
Toronto- Playoffs

West
New Orleans- Playoffs
Dallas- Tank
Denver- Tank
Golden State- Playoffs
Houston- Playoffs
LA Lakers- Tank
LA Clippers- Playoffs
Minnesota- Playoffs
Phoenix- Tank
Portland- Playoffs
Sacramento- Tank
San Antonio- Playoffs
Oklahoma City- Playoffs
Houston- Playoffs
Memphis- Playoffs

Ready for tonight?  College Hoops is right around the corner as well.

Follow me on twitter @ZRey12

Friday, October 25, 2013

Wizards Acquire Marcin Gortat

Last week, I predicted the Wizards to finish 8th in the Eastern Conference.  I fully stand by that prediction, and the addition of Gortat certainly is an improvement over Emeka Okafor.  This brings Washington's depth chart to look like this:

1 Wall/Maynor
2 Beal/Webster/Temple/Rice Jr.
3 Porter/Ariza/Singleton
4 Seraphin/Booker/Vesely/Harrington
5 Gortat/Nene

This looks like a bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture at best.  The team does not have much cap flexibility, and gave up a valuable draft choice- 2014 top 12 protected- to get marginally better.  It seems like a move Ernie Grunfield has made to save his job.  Okafor was not likely going to play a big part of the Wizards rotation this season, and Gortat is immediately their best rebounder and interior defender.  His strengths in the pick and roll game on both sides of the ball will help John Wall's development into the 20 point scorer and max-level player they need him to be.

I love this deal from the Suns standpoint.  This team is not going to win many games, and is destined to be picking high in the lottery next year, where the draft class has league executives drooling.  Alex Len likely assumes a starting role, and has a chance to play through any growing pains he may have.  Phoenix is loaded with picks in the next draft and made another really smart move today by dealing Gortat. 

Grades:  Phoenix: A, Washington: C-

2014 NBA Draft Top 100


Here is an updated Big Board, expanded to the top 100 prospects.  The season starts in two weeks, let the fun begin!

As always, the grading system is as follows:
90-100 (Superstar) 80-89 (All-Star) 70-79 (Starter:) 60-69(Contributor) 50-59 (Role Player) <50 (Not Draftable)
                                                                                        

  1. Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas, Fr.              Grade: 96
  2. Dante Exum PG/Australia, Intl.              Grade: 91
  3. Julius Randle PF/Kentucky, Fr.               Grade: 90
  4. Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona, Fr.                Grade: 88
  5. Jabari Parker SF/Duke, Fr.                      Grade: 87
  6. Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State, So.  Grade: 81
  7. Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia, Intl.             Grade: 81
  8. Joel Embiid C/Kansas, Fr.                        Grade: 79
  9. Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan, So.     Grade: 77
  10. Gary Harris SG/Michigan State, So.       Grade: 76
  11. Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky, Fr.        Grade: 75
  12. Dario Saric F/Croatia, Intl.                       Grade: 75
  13. Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky, So.       Grade: 75
  14. Wayne Selden SG/Kansas, Fr.                  Grade: 74
  15. Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor, So.                     Grade: 73
  16. James Young SF/Kentucky, Fr.                Grade: 72
  17. Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky, So.             Grade: 72
  18. Semaj Christon PG/Xavier, So.                Grade: 71
  19. Montrezl Harris F/Louisville, So.            Grade: 71
  20. Jarnell Stokes PF/Tennessee, So.              Grade: 71
  21. Chris Walker SF/Florida, Fr.                   Grade: 70
  22. Jahii Carson PG/Arizona State, So.        Grade: 69
  23. LaQuinton Ross SG/Ohio State, So.        Grade: 69
  24. Mitch McGary C/Michigan, So.              Grade: 68
  25. TJ Warren SF/NC State, So.                    Grade: 68
  26. Russ Smith G/Louisville, Sr.                    Grade: 67
  27. Rasheed Sulaimon G/Duke, So.               Grade: 66
  28. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF/Arizona, Fr. Grade: 66
  29. Aaron Harrison SG/Kentucky, Fr.           Grade: 65
  30. Spencer Dinwiddie PG/Colorado, So.      Grade: 64
  31. Vasilje Misic PG/Serbia, Intl.                   Grade: 64
  32. Doug McDermott SF/Creighton, Sr.        Grade: 63
  33. Kasey Hill PG/Florida, Fr.                       Grade: 63
  34. Noah Vonleh F/Indiana, Fr.                     Grade: 63
  35. Jordan Adams SG/UCLA, So.                 Grade: 62
  36. Adreian Payne PF/Michigan State, Sr.   Grade: 61
  37. Nikola Milutiov C/Serbia, Intl.                Grade: 61
  38. Ilemane Diop C/Senegal, Intl.                  Grade: 61
  39. Sam Dekker SF/Wisconsin, So.                Grade: 60
  40. Jerami Grant SF/Syracuse, Fr.                Grade: 60
  41. Bobby Portis F/Arkansas, Fr.                   Grade: 60
  42. Dakari Johnson C/Kentucky, Fr.             Grade: 60
  43. Dwight Powell PF/Stanford, Sr.              Grade:59
  44. PJ Hairston SG/North Carolina, Jr.       Grade: 59 
  45. James McAdoo PF/North Carolina, So.  Grade: 59
  46. Damyean Dotson SG/Oregon, So.           Grade: 59
  47. Leo Westermann PG/France, Intl.          Grade: 58
  48. Nigel Williams-Gross PG/Washington, Fr.  Grade: 58
  49. Kyle Anderson SF/UCLA, So.                 Grade: 57
  50. Kaleb Tarczewski C/Arizona State, So.  Grade: 57
  51. Demetrius Jackson PG/Notre Dame, Fr. Grade: 56
  52. Mouhammadou Jaiteh C/France, Intl.   Grade: 56
  53. CJ Wilcox SG/Washington, Sr.                Grade: 55
  54. LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State, So.  Grade: 55
  55. Cory Jefferson PF/Baylor, Jr.                  Grade: 54
  56. Elfrid Payton PG/La. Lafayette, Jr.        Grade: 54
  57. Jarell Martin SF/LSU, Fr.                        Grade: 53
  58. Juvonte Reddic PF/VCU, Sr.                   Grade: 53
  59. Olivier Hanlan PG/Boston College, So.  Grade: 52
  60.  Jerelle Benimon PF/Towson, Sr.             Grade: 52
  61. Wang Zhelin C/China, Intl.                     Grade: 52
  62. Markel Brown SG/Oklahoma State, Sr.  Grade: 51
  63. AJ Hammons C/Purdue, Sr.                     Grade: 51
  64. Patric Young C/Florida, Sr.                      Grade: 50
  65. Rodney Purvis SG/UConn, So.                Grade: 50
  66. Alex Kirk C/New Mexico, Jr.                   Grade: 50
  67. CJ Fair SF/Syracuse, Sr.                          Grade: 50
  68. Keith Appling PG/Michigan State, Sr.    Grade: 50
  69. Rodney Hood SF/Duke, So.                      Grade: 50
  70. Alessandro Gentile SF/Italy, Intl.            Grade: 49
  71. Branden Dawson SF/Michigan St., Jr.    Grade: 49
  72. Nick Stauskas SG/Michigan, So.             Grade: 49
  73. Brandon Ashley F/Arizona, So.               Grade: 49
  74. Chris Obekpa PF/St. John's, So.             Grade: 48
  75. Joe Harris SF/Virginia, Sr.                      Grade: 48
  76. Treveon Graham SF/VCU, Jr.                 Grade: 48
  77. Jordan McRae SG/Tennessee, Sr.           Grade: 47
  78. Joel James C/North Carolina, So.           Grade: 47
  79. Aaron Craft PG/Ohio State, Sr.              Grade: 47
  80. Joe Jackson PG/Memphis, Sr.                 Grade: 46
  81. Josh Scott C/Colorado, So.                       Grade: 46
  82. Norvel Pelle C/Prep School                      Grade: 45
  83. Perry Ellis PF/Kansas, So.                       Grade: 45
  84. Mike Moser F/Oregon, Sr.                       Grade: 44
  85. Sean Kilpatrick SG/Cincinnati, Sr.         Grade: 44
  86. Dez Wells SG/Maryland, Jr.                    Grade: 44
  87. Cleanthony Early SF/Wichita St, Sr.      Grade: 43
  88. Wayne Blackshear SG/Louisville, Jr.     Grade: 43
  89. Cole Dickerson PF/San Francisco, Sr.    Grade: 42
  90. Marcus Paige PG/North Carolina, Jr.    Grade: 42
  91. Erick Atkins PG/Notre Dame, Sr.           Grade: 42
  92. Deonte Burton SG/Nevada, Sr.                Grade: 41
  93. Chane Behanan PF/Louisville, Jr.           Grade: 41
  94. Dominic Artis PG/Oregon, So.                Grade: 41
  95. Guillermo Hernangomez C/Spain, Intl. Grade: 41
  96. Eric Moreland PF/Oregon State, Jr.      Grade: 40
  97. KJ McDaniel SF/Clemson, Jr.                Grade: 40
  98. Briante Weber G/VCU, Jr.                      Grade: 40
  99. Johnny O'Bryant C/LSU, Jr.                  Grade: 40
  100. Kevin Pangos PG/Gonzaga, Jr.              Grade: 40

    The season will see many changes, new additions, injuries/off-court issues, and lots of excitement.  Stay Tuned!

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Make or Break NBA Prospects

To make it in the NBA, a player needs elite athleticism and knowledge of the game.  High level production usually helps too, but can be sometimes forgiven for younger players.  When upperclassmen have been touted as highly regarded prospects, but stayed in college only to produce marginal statistics, draft stocks tumble.  Here are 5 players who drastically need a good season to gain the NBA Draft traction they once had, or to maintain their current status.

  1. James McAdoo PF/North Carolina- After his freshman year, he was graded by some as a top 10 pick.  His averages of 14/7 were not terrible, but they sure don't scream first round pick.  He shot a poor percentage from the floor, and didn't play with the same motor that was evident during his freshman season.  North Carolina drastically needs interior scoring this year, and a rise in averages to at least 18/8 would go a long way towards McAdoo avoiding a free fall.  Current Big Board Rank: 42
  2. LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State- Nash was a McDonald's All American who has failed to stand out at Oklahoma State.  After a positive freshman season, Nash regressed statistically, and did not improve his poor outside shooting percentages and steal rate.  He is a terrific athlete, and as a 6'7" wing is tough to contain in the college ranks.  When he takes bad shots (often) and commits foolish turnovers, however, he becomes a defense's best friend.  He needs to buy into the Oklahoma State system, and form one of the nations best 1-2 punches with point guard Marcus Smart.  Current Big Board Rank: 53
  3. Russ Smith G/Louisville- I'll be the first to say I am squarely on the Russ Smith bandwagon.  He has NBA level athleticism, especially quickness, and has potential to be a scorer off of an NBA bench.  His defense could be a positive for a team at the next level as well.  The biggest question for Smith surrounds his guard play.  We know what he is capable of as an off-guard and scorer, but can he become a more efficient ball handler and outside shooter?  Russdiculous is good for his brand, but may not be the best for his NBA Draft status.  Current Big Board Rank: 26
  4. Alex Poythress F/Kentucky- Poythress is only a sophomore, but he failed to meet the lofty expectations set for him last year.  He entered the 2012/13 college season regarded as a top 10 prospect, but could have been a second round pick had he declared for the 2013 draft.  He enters this season having to compete with perhaps the best recruiting class on record, including Julius Randle and James Young, who will use many minutes at the 3 and 4 spots.  Poythress had his moments of brilliance (he averaged 11/6 for the season), and needs to improve his outside shooting- he shot a good percentage on a low number of attempts- and his steal and block rate- a supposed strength of his, he only recorded 14 blocks and 9 steals.  He could still be a lottery pick next year, if he chooses to enter.  Current Big Board Rank: 17
  5. Marshall Henderson SG/Ole Miss- For the record, I in no way endorse Henderson to be drafted by any team.  He is a volume shooter with no conscience, and has had off the court issues.  He will likely average 20 points again this year but it will not matter.  He jacked up nearly 11 threes per game last year, and while he makes a high percentage the shots he takes simply won't be tolerated by a coach at the nest level.  He has obvious talent, and Andy Kennedy needs to be strict with Henderson this year about his antics on and off the court.  If the same tactics are applied as last year, Henderson will not succeed.  ESPN will cover him, and he needs a great support system in place to make sure the coverage is not to his detriment.  Shooters are always needed in the NBA, so consider Henderson a vast longshot.  Current Big Board Rank: N/A

     

Monday, October 21, 2013

2013/14 Portland TrailBlazers Preview

Like it or not, this is Damian Lillard's team.  Aldridge will lead the team in scoring, but this team's success this year depends on Lillard's ability to maintain the same level of offense as last year while showing improvement on the defensive end.  #NBArank placed both Lillard and LA in the top 30 players, but forcing to choose between the two is an easy choice.  The state of Aldridge's knee is worrisome- especially given Portland's shaky past with knee injuries.

Damian Lillard has the potential to be a 20 point scorer.  I would predict a slightly more modest total- around 18 a game- to go with just over 7 assists.  LA will score almost 20 points to go with 8 rebounds.  His rebounding total will not be as high as last year because he shouldn't be playing 38 minutes a night.  Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez look like good pieces next to LA.  Robinson is already what JJ Hickson was last year, and he is only in his second year.  Count that trade as a win.  Lopez is starting to play better with each preseason game, but I want to reserve most of my judgement for the regular season. 

The depth chart should look as follows, when dealing with a healthy team:

1 Lillard/Williams/Watson
2 Matthews/McCollum/Barton/Crabbe
3 Batum/Wright/Claver
4 Aldridge/Robinson/Freeland
5 Lopez/Leonard

Positives: 
• The Blazers finally have 2 true center options
• The bench is not one of the worst of all time (last year's bench had a WARP of -9.9- yikes!)
• Lillard is a top 10 PG, with the likes of Paul, Williams, Rose, Westbrook, Rondo, Curry, Irving, Parker and Wall.
• Aldridge is a top 2 power forward in the league. Only Kevin Love can compete for that honor with him. 
• Matthews and Batum provide terrific outside shooting to pair with Lillard and LA, and above average defense as a tandem.  Williams, Wright and McCollum will all make their share of threes.

Questions:
• Does Batum take the next step?  He is maddeningly inconsistent, and seems to have too many nagging injuries to play through.  At the start of last season, Batum was playing unbelievable basketball before leveling off towards the end of the year.  He needs to become an actual defensive stopper, and score 16-17 points a game.  Given the salary he will be paid, in year 6 it is Batum's time. 
• Outside of Batum, is this team good enough defensively?  Aldridge is an underrated defender, and he pairs with a true 7 footer in Lopez who isn't afraid of contact.  Lillard and Batum were not as good last year as they should have been.  Matthews is a near elite defender.  If this team makes the playoffs, they will give up less than 100 points per game.
• Can this team score efficiently?  This category will be much improved over last year, though a bulk of the responsibility falls on LA, Lillard, and yes, Batum, to create for both theirselves and teammates.  Look for Portland to be among the leading teams in eFG%.

5 bold predictions:
• The Blazers finish second in the Northwest division, ahead of Minnesota, Denver and Utah. 
• Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge make the All-Star game this year.
• Thomas Robinson leads the league in rebounds off the bench.
• Portland, as a team, averages 8 steals a game.
• Matthews, Lillard and Batum all make over 200 3's.

I predict the Blazers to go 46-36, and finish 6th in the Western Conference.  Defense is the key, and holding opponents to less than 100 points per game is paramount.  Missing the playoffs likely means a trip back to the lottery (or losing our pick if we would pick 13th or 14th), trading LaMarcus Aldridge, and potentially shopping Wesley Matthews.  This team is built to win, and should have high expectations accordingly.

Follow me on twitter @ZRey12

Stay tuned for an updated Big Board for the 2014 draft, and an updated mock draft too, based on my predicted standings!



Tuesday, October 15, 2013

NBA Standings and Awards Preview

Preseason is in full swing.  Games have have taken place overseas, and against European teams in the States.  In my opinion, this is what preseason is all about.  NBA teams get a chance to play each other a minimum of 2 times, and up to 4 times every year.  Why not play a dominant European team in preseason?  It gives both teams just a little more to play for.  Secondly, it gives a scouting advantage to play against teams with draftable prospects.  In the last few weeks, games against CSKA Moscow and Maccabi Tel Aviv have taken place.  On both those rosters are young players with pro potential, and players teams want to see.  I want to see NBA squads face a squad with a dominant European prospect- such as FC Barcelona with Mario Hezonja- just to see how he responds.

The D-League will take another step forward this year.  The Pistons have become the next team to have a single affiliate in the Developmental League.  One of Adam Silver's first steps as NBA Commissioner needs to involve the D-League's expansion- every team should have to have a single affiliate.  That means 30 D-League teams.  In an ideal system, NBA franchises could still assign players to the D-League, but also retain the players on their D-League team with a modest salary- say between 50k and 100k per year.  For example, the Blazers will likely keep Richard Howell, Dee Bost and EJ Singler on their Idaho Stampede roster, but would love to play them a salary to keep their rights.  The system does become less player friendly, but that is what it will take to embrace the D-League as more of a minor league to the NBA.

A secondary owner solely for the D-League affiliate may be necessary, but it important that a partnership is reached between every NBA team and every D-League team.  There are absolutely 15 more smaller scale cities (at minimum) that would deserve a team.  A few possibilities could include Vancouver, Canada; Richmond, VA;  St. Louis, MO; and yes, Seattle, Washington.  Why not?  It could be the start of proving a successful franchise could exist there.

Here is my preview of the NBA in general, with a special Blazers preview still to come!

Eastern Conference Standings (record):
1 Miami (59-23)
2 Indiana (53-29)
3 Chicago (51- 31)
4 Brooklyn (49-33)
5 New York (46-36)
6 Detroit (43-39)
7 Cleveland (41-41)
8 Washington (40-42)
-------------------------------------------
9 Atlanta (38-44)
10 Toronto (37-45)
11 Milwaukee (37-45)
12 Orlando (31-51)
13 Boston (30-52)
14 Charlotte (28-54)
15 Philadelphia (23-59)

Analysis: This is still Miami's conference.  LeBron James is the best player in the NBA, and he has supporting pieces around him that gel together nicely.  Dwyane Wade is beginning his decline as an NBA player this year- he won't score 20 a game.  That said, he is still a top 30 player in the league, and should average between 17-18 points per game.  Given other core players like Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Shane Battier and others, Miami has competent pieces who can play lots of minutes.

Indiana follows Miami as the biggest threat to beat the Heat.  Paul George has emerged as a max-contract player, and was rewarded accordingly.  He will be an All-Star again this year, and score above 20 per game.  Roy Hibbert, David West and George Hill all return as starters, and Lance Stephenson likely starts as well, having performed above his talent level in the playoffs.  They have a very deep bench with new acquisitions Chris Copeland, CJ Watson and Luis Scola to go with Ian Mahinmi, and potential super sixth man Danny Granger (I am skeptical George and Granger can play together for long minutes at a time).

Chicago's season depends on the health of Derrick Rose's knee, and fans should be optimistic.  Jimmy Butler has emerged as a long term wing option, and could prompt a mid-season trade of Luol Deng- who's contract will expire and likely not brought back.  Brooklyn made a huge trade landing Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry in an effort to pay the largest luxury tax ever imagined.  Jokes aside, Brooklyn will be good, but I am not sure how the roster fits together.  Deron Williams will benefit most, but does Paul Pierce really fit?  I think the Nets struggle out of the gates, and rebound to a 4th place finish.

Ah, the New York Knicks.  This will be a Carmelo Anthony dominated team, for better or worse.  He will score in bunches, but won't necessarily make the best decisions.  Likewise could be said for JR Smith.  Iman Shumpert is the team's second best player, and best defender.  This could be a breakout year for Shumpert if the other player's will pass him the ball.  The Knicks will not be among the leaders in assists.  Raymond Felton is an enigma- he seemed to have bounced back last year in New York, but his career has fluctuated between good and poor performances.  I think Felton regresses, and Pablo Prigioni winds up playing crunch time minutes when the games truly matter.

I predict Detroit, Cleveland and Washington to join the playoff crowd.  Detroit is most intriguing, with a front line of Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  Not many teams can match up with that front line.  Brandon Jennings is in a better situation, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should back up Chauncey Billups as the sixth man.  There is a lot to like about this Detroit team, assuming expectations are reasonable.  Cleveland, led by Kyrie Irving, finally takes the next step.  He has competent players around him in Varejao and Thompson, and the addition of Anthony Bennett will help the team, though I really question the pick at number one still.  I liked Cleveland's signing of Earl Clark as a player who could end up starting at the 3.  Washington has a roster built for the 8th seed.  John Wall is very talented, and he finally has good shooters around him in Brad Beal and the recently overpaid Martell Webster.  Emeka Okafor, and Nene, when healthy, will plug the middle.

Out of the playoffs, Boston needs to trade Rondo.  The team is fully rebuilding, and should use Rajon to get promising young players, and rid themselves of Gerald Wallace's contract.  Tanking sucks in sports, but that is exactly what Boston should do given the talent in the 2014 Draft class.  Unfortunately, tank-a-palooza will be worse this season than any other (see Philadelphia).  Atlanta, Milwaukee and Toronto need to consider making big moves as well- either to elevate them to the next tier or to get worse in hopes of hitting it big with the lottery.

Western Conference Standings (record):
1 LA Clippers- (56-26)
2 Oklahoma City- (55-27)
3 Golden State- (52-30)
4 Houston- (51-31)
5 San Antonio- (50-32)
6 Portland- (46-36)
7 Minnesota- (44-38)
8 Memphis- (42-40)
-------------------------------
9 New Orleans- (40-42)
10 Denver- (37-45)
11 LA Lakers- (35-47)
12 Phoenix- (31-51)
13 Utah- (30-52)
14 Dallas- (29-53)
15 Sacramento- (28-54)

Analysis:  The LA Clippers sit at the top, though the margin is close.  Doc Rivers can put this team in a position Vinny Del Negro never could- deep in the playoffs, potentially in the Finals.  Chris Paul will flourish in similar ways as Rondo has, while also showing an ability to score that has been his calling card in the NBA.  He should be the All-NBA first team PG.  Like in Boston, Rivers has shooters in Jared Dudley and JJ Redick- both of which should shoot north of 40%- and athletic big men in Griffin and Jordan.  This won't be an incredibly deep team, but a very talented one that will win the West.

Oklahoma City's projection may be on the high end, but I think Reggie Jackson can be an adequate replacement while Russell Westbrook sits out in recovery.  Durant might be the best combination shooter/scorer in the league, and will most likely average over 30 per game while Westbrook is out.  Ibaka is still improving as a post man, and they have lots of young pieces to like in Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones and Andre Roberson.  The team might start slow, but will wind up one of the hottest teams come playoff time.

Golden State and Houston both made big moves to improve their teams.  Golden State cleared their expiring deals- giving up first round picks to do so- to sign Andre Iguodala as a defensive stopper and slasher; those roles had not been filled by anyone on the roster.  Stephen Curry will explode as an MVP candidate this year, but be overlooked by James and Durant.  Houston signed Dwight Howard in the most melodramatic fashion since "The Decision."  Howard fits well as a partner to James Harden, and should revert back to his similar days in Orlando.  Let us be serious though- this is Harden's team.  Both teams are well positioned to exceed expectations. 

I predict San Antonio 5th.  It finally seems like age caught up with Manu Ginobili.  Tim Duncan is one of the oldest in the league, and Parker is now on the wrong side of 30.  Will the Spurs win the conference again?  It is possible.  I think age starts to show its effects on this team, and the Spurs wind up a middle of the road contender.

In the 6 and 7 spots I have up and coming teams Portland and Minnesota.  Both have terrific young point guards and the two best power forwards in the game.  Portland has the edge looking at depth and wing play, but Minnesota has a true starting center option in Pekovic.  This is a coin flip for who finishes higher in the division, and I gave the edge to Portland because I think Lillard has a bigger effect on the league than Rubio this year.

Memphis is an enigma to me.  They sure can defend.  Marc Gasol is a beast- and the best center in the game.  But is it still important to have a quality center?  Teams are defying the need for a go to 5 man, and Marc Gasol offensively cannot push a team into the top 4 in the West by himself.  Conley is a terrific game managing point guard, and Z-Bo is an efficient scorer and rebounder, but is super unathletic.  Ed Davis could breakout, but is stuck behind Randolph.  Same goes for Pondexter behind the foolishly resigned (at least for the value he got) Tony Allen.  If Memphis embraces these changes, and finds some outside shooting (enter Pondexter again) than this team could exceed my expectations.  For now, let them be tempered some.

New Orleans is another rising team that is one year away.  Anthony Davis is poised for a big year.  The team acquired All-Star PG Jrue Holiday, and enigma Tyreke Evans, and has the best shooting big man in the game in Ryan Anderson.  My biggest concern revolves around the team's big men.  Davis is still in need of adding strength, and Ryan Anderson should not be relied on for defense.  This team will score a lot, but struggle defensively, and it will cost them in getting to the playoffs.  A true center in the draft like Willie Cauley Stein could be a good developmental pick next to Davis.

Denver and the Lakers had catastrophic offseasons.  Denver lost George Karl and their GM, Uruji.  They lost their best player in Andre Iguodala.  Brian Shaw was a terrific hire, and will do big things, but not this year.  Denver is reliant on youth this year, and I am not sure the likes of JaVale McGee and Kenneth Faried can cope defensively.  This team has a promising future, but is a year away at this point.  The Lakers lost Howard.  They still have D'Antoni.  They have a recovering Kobe Bryant.  Like the previous two teams, is this team going to stop anyone?  A frontcourt of Gasol and Kaman is underwhelming, and a backcourt of Nash, Kobe and Wes Johnson/Nick Young/.....  Offensively this team has some polish, and a few chuckers.  There will be nights of magic and nights the game is over early.  Laker nation- this is not your year.  Following LA are 4 teams not poised for success, and well positioned to pick high in the draft. 

Awards Picks:
MVP- LeBron James
Defensive POY- Serge Ibaka
Rookie- Otto Porter Jr.
Most Improved-  Reggie Jackson
Sixth Man- Jamal Crawford
Coach- Doc Rivers

First Team All-NBA:
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Marc Gasol

Second Team:
Deron Williams
James Harden
Paul George
Kevin Love
Dwight Howard

Third Team:
Tony Parker
Kyrie Irving
Carmelo Anthony
LaMarcus Aldridge
Roy Hibbert

Honorable Mention:  Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe

NBA Finals:  Clippers over Heat in 7 games

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

College Basketball Preview

October is exciting.  The NFL is picking up.  College football is intriguing.  Playoffs have started in baseball.  Even hockey just started, if that is your forte.  None of these are the best sports aspect of October.  The winner?  Basketball is in sight- right around the corner.  College basketball teams are beginning practices, and NBA training camps are soon to start, as media days have been taking place over the last week, and will continue for the next week.  Putting the NBA aside, for now, here is my take on college basketball this season:

Beginning with analysis of conference play:

American Conference:

Ugh...  I miss the old Big East already.  No more moments like this -->

Big East placed aside, the American conference will be one to watch this season.  Louisville is in a position to dominate the conference, and give a good run to defending the national championship they recently won.  Russ Smith will get his chance as the lead guard (Yes, Jones will play a major role too) and Montrezl Harrell could emerge as one of the best forwards in the country.  I like Louisville's odds to win this conference.

Cincinnati and Memphis likely fall in the 2-3 spots, with me giving the slight edge to Cincinnati.  The Bearcats return a top-tier shooter in Sean Kilpatrick- a player who should average north of 20 points per game this year.  As in the past, Cincinnati may not be the prettiest of teams to watch, but they will continue to get results.  Memphis has a team that could win the conference, based on their talent level.  Joe Jackson, Shaq Goodwin and Missouri transfer Michael Dixon all are poised for leading roles under Josh Pastner's watch, but the big question surrounds their ability to put the "whole product" together, and play efficiently.  This is a tournament team who likely ends up around the 6-9 seed line.

Finally, UConn brings back Napier and Boatwright, to name a few, but is it enough to get into the tournament?  Non-conference wins against Florida, Stanford and Washington would go a long ways towards increasing the appeal of UConn's resume.  South Florida and Temple both bring back intriguing players, namely Victor Rudd for South Florida.  Can Larry Brown lead an underwhelming SMU squad to the tournament?  Not this year, but a solid recruiting class for next year could put SMU into the mix.

Conference standings prediction:
1 Louisville
2 Cincinnati
3 Memphis
4 South Florida
5 Connecticut
6 Temple
7 SMU
8 UCF
9 Houston
10 Rutgers

Conference Player of the Year (POY):  Russ Smith/Louisville
All Conference Team:
Russ Smith/Louisville
Sean Kilpatrick/Cincinnati
Victor Rudd/South Florida
Montrezl Harrell/Louisville
Chane Behanan/Louisville
NCAA Tournament teams:  Best case- 6 Worst case- 3

ACC: 



The ACC has long been Duke's house.  North Carolina has owned it too.  For a conference that has been won by Duke or North Carolina.  Only 6 times since 1982 have Duke and Carolina not had at least a share of the regular season conference championship.  No more.  The ACC has expanded- rather impressively- in basketball, bringing in Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Louisville (next year) to compete with the already strong conference.  The ACC has all of the tools to become the power conference in college basketball.

Let me start by buying into the Duke hype around Jabari Parker.  He will be the go-to guy from day one offensively for the Blue Devils- the best recruit since Kyrie Irving.  Is there another player like him in the conference that can score the ball like he can?  Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon and Andre Dawkins will patrol the backcourt, and Marshall Plumlee will step up in the front court.  Add in Mississippi State transfer Rodney Hood, and we are looking at a Duke team poised to make a deep national run- and it all starts with the prodigy from Chicago, Jabari Parker.

North Carolina has pieces to make fans excited, but they could lead to disappointment just as easily.  Strictly from a basketball perspective, PJ Hairston is the most talented on the roster.  He is a terrific outside shooter, and a decent rebounder and defender for his position.  He has had off court issues this offseason- and last year- and I have to wonder whether he can remain committed for the entire season.  Outside of Hairston, there are pieces to like on this team.  Joel James is a raw big man who has tremendous defensive potential.  JP Tokoto could be in line for a deservedly larger scoring role.  Marcus Paige has some scouts thinking about Kendall Marshall again.  James McAdoo was once a player regarded as a top-10 pick, but a poor sophomore campaign led to his return.  A solid season could put him right back in the mix as a first round pick, whereas another average year could push him out of the top 60, at least.

Miami, last season, made an impressive run and won the conference championship.  Unfortunately, the team lost nearly everyone, and may have to endure a rebuilding year. Jim Larranaga could put the team in a good position, but obstacles will be too big for the Hurricanes to overcome this year to make the tournament.  Syracuse, on the other hand, could compete with Duke and UNC this year.  CJ Fair returns to lead the Orange; the roster also contains promise in Jerami Grant and Rakeem Christmas.  Keita could be in store for a larger role as well.  Finally, freshman Tyler Ennis is the type of guard who could make a big difference, potentially handling PG duties down the stretch.  If the Orange can replace the shooting that was lost with Brandon Triche and James Southerland, 'Cuse could make a run for the conference championship.

The middle of the conference could make for an intriguing race.  NC State lost CJ Leslie, Lorenzo Brown and Rodney Purvis, but maintains potential first round pick TJ Warren, and former McDonald's All American Tyler Lewis.  In addition, Trevor Lacey transferred from Alabama to NC State, but is ineligible to play this season due to NCAA transfer rules.  Pittsburgh returns two of the two three scorers they had, and will be decent under Jamie Dixon again.  Clemson has intriguing talent, namely forward KJ McDaniel.  Tony Bennett could get Virginia back into the NCAA tournament, as leading scorer Joe Harris returns for his senior season.  Harris could potentially lead the NCAA in scoring.  Notre Dame has talent under Mike Brey as well, with Eric Atkins and Jerian Wright returning.  Other players to watch in the conference are Ryan Anderson (BC) and Travis McKie (WF).  Expect a very compelling ACC season.

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Duke
2 Syracuse
3 Notre Dame
4 North Carolina
5 Virginia
6 Pittsburgh
7 NC State
8 Clemson
9 Boston College
10 Miami (FL)
11 Florida State
12 Georgia Tech
13 Maryland
14 Wake Forest
15 Virginia Tech

Conference Player of the Year:  Jabari Parker/Duke
All Conference Team:
Rasheed Sulaimon/Duke
Joe Harris/Virginia
Jabari Parker/Duke
TJ Warren/NC State
CJ Fair/Syracuse
NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best Case- 10, Worst Case- 7

Atlantic 10:


Can the A-10 handle the Havoc?  VCU returns this season as the favorite, returning several key players from last year's NCAA tournament squad.  Juvonte Reddic leads the way as a potential NBA draft choice, followed by scorers Treveon Graham, Rob Brandenburg and thief- meaning in the best way possible- Briante Weber.  Weber has led the country in steal percentage the last few seasons, and could set records this year playing in an increased role.  He may be the best defender in the country.  If the Rams can play efficient basketball in their chaotic style, they could have a special season.

The rest of the conference does not stack up as well as last season:  Temple, Butler and Xavier have defected to the Big East and American conferences.  Remaining are St. Louis and La Salle as the top contenders in the conference play.  Don't get me wrong- the A-10 will be one of the top mid-major conferences, but expectations should be less than last year in terms of getting a large number of teams in the tournament.  Tyrone Garland and Tyreek Duren will be the focal points for La Salle, and Dwayne Evans returns to lead St. Louis.

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 VCU
2 La Salle
3 St. Louis
4 St. Joseph's
5 Massachusetts
6 Dayton
7 Richmond
8 George Mason
9 Rhode Island
10 George Washington
11 St. Bonaventure
12 Duquesne
13 Fordham

Conference Player of the Year:  Juvonte Reddic/VCU
All Conference Team:
Briante Weber/VCU
Tyreek Duren/La Salle
Chaz Williams/UMass
Dwyane Evans/St. Louis
Juvonte Reddic/VCU
NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best case- 3, worst case-1

Big East:



"We have a basketball dominant conference"

Wally Szczerbiak's words are powerful- but is there any team in this conference that could win a national title this year or next?  I see a lot of teams destined to be seeded between the 4 and 8 lines, but not a bevy of top-ten caliber teams.

Georgetown was the highest seeded in this group last year, but lost their best player in Otto Porter.  The team does have many upperclassmen, and will be led by guards Starks and Smith-Rivera.  Defensively, this group could be one of the best in the country in terms of opponent scoring rate.  If they can find an inside scoring presence, Georgetown could win this league.  The Hoyas have an intriguing opener against Oregon.

Marquette unfortunately lost their best player in Vander Blue, who was an early entry candidate in last year's NBA Draft, but did not get selected.  Blue was a fringe round-2 candidate, and should have stayed.  Blues aside (get it?), the team returns Davante Gardner- a tough to handle post man with good hands- and Jamil Wilson, a combo forward who can do a little of everything.  The biggest issue for Marquette will be outside shooting.  They shot under 30% as a team last year, and need to find a consistent presence behind the arc.  Maybe Wilson steps into the role of a go to outside scorer.

Villanova returns their top 3 scorers, most importantly Arcidiacono.  This team will shoot a lot of threes, but only shot 33% last season- a number that has to improve.  The biggest loss is Yarou, who was the team's best rebounder and interior defender.  Look for 6-11 sophomore Ochefu to step into the team's center position and flourish.

Perhaps the two biggest threats to the teams listed above are Xavier and Creighton.  Both teams have All-American caliber players in Doug McDermott (Creighton) and Semaj Christon (Xavier).  McDermott and Grant Gibbs will be forced to do too much for Creighton this year, but it will result in another NCAA tournament berth, and perhaps a Naismith award for McDermott.  Xavier, on the other hand, will rely on Christon for both scoring and playmaking.  He could put together a 20 point 5 assist campaign to put Xavier in contention for a top 20 rank, and give him potential consideration as a lottery pick candidate for the 2014 draft (currently sits at 20 on the Big Board).

Other players who could make a big difference in this conference are Providence's Kris Dunn- a candidate to lead the country in scoring- and St. John's Chris Obekpa- perhaps the best shot blocker in the country.  Steve Lavin has loads of raw talent at St. John's, and I am curious to see if he can make all of the pieces he has assembled work together efficiently.

Finally, Butler made a big move from the A-10 (for only 1 year) to the Big East, but then lost its head coach- and program identity- to the Boston Celtics on a 6 year contract worth over $4 million per year.  Butler still will run a similar system with its current players, but I have to think the team will not reach its expected peak without Stevens at the helm.

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Villanova
2 Xavier
3 Georgetown
4 Creighton
5 Marquette
6 Providence
7 St. John's
8 Butler
9 Seton Hall
10 DePaul

Conference Player of the Year:  Semaj Christon/Xavier
All Conference Team:
Semaj Christon/Xavier
Ryan Arcidiacono/Villanova
Kris Dunn/Providence 
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
NCAA Tournament Berths:  Best case- 6, worst case- 4

Big Ten:
Last year's Big Ten was dominated by Indiana in the regular season, with Michigan making it all the way to the title game against Louisville.  The Big Ten may have been the best conference last year, and can make similar claims for the upcoming year.  Indiana will be good again.  Ohio State solid.  But this conference will be dominated by the state of Michigan:  Both the Spartans and Wolverines should be top 5 teams entering the season.


Michigan State returns Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Brendan Dawson and Adreian Payne- 4 of their 5 starters from last season's impressive campaign that ended up earning a 3 seed in the tournament.  Harris and Payne are both likely first round picks in the upcoming draft, and Dawson and Appling are very draftable players as well.  Appling, much like Siva last year, should use his experience as a starter to lead this team to greatness this year.  Payne reminds me some of Blake Griffin, and may be one of the most overlooked players in the NCAA.  I know I have him ranked as an early 2nd round pick thus far, but I expect him to rise to a top 25 player by midseason.  I need to see improvements defensively and better effort on the glass.  Finally, if Payne can show any sort of post game- similar to Derrick Nix's role last year, Sparty will be tough to stop.

Michigan, oppositely, lost two of its best players in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.  Both were selected in round 1.  Like their rivals, Michigan has first round talent in Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary, and perhaps the best shooter in the country in Nick Stauskas.  Robinson needs to develop into a more efficient shooter and scorer- he is a player who reminds me some of bigger Andre Iguodala.  McGary needs to continue to be a presence down low.  Cody Zeller had a large impact in the Big Ten as a post up player, and McGary could be a similar threat.  The big key for Michigan's success is the point guard play of Spike Albrecht.  He lit it up from the 3 point line in the NCAA final, but needs to show poise as a point guard against good defenders in the Big Ten.  If he can handle the pressure, Michigan could reach the Final Four again.

What about Indiana??  They lost Cody Zeller and, more importantly, Victor Oladipo, but the Hoosiers still have a very competitive program.  Yogi Ferrell needs to step into the scoring role as a point guard, as he is the best player on this year's squad.  Jordan Hulls graduated; he doesn't have a great shooter in the backcourt anymore.  Will Sheehy is an important player to keep an eye on as a starting 2, but he is limited as a ball handler.  The X-factor will be 6-10 freshman Noah Vonleh, a player I saw at the Nike Hoop Summit.  He is raw, but talented, and, he is an athlete with size who can match up with opponents like Robinson.  If he can be an offensive weapon as well, he could be the top freshman in the conference.

Ohio State is intriguing as well.  They return their 3 best guards in Craft, Ross and Smith, and have a solid interior presence in Amir Williams.  Williams isn't a scorer, but can defend well with his strength and length.  He isn't much of a scorer though, meaning the perimeter players will have to be efficient.  Ross likely leads the team in scoring, and is the only true NBA prospect on this team, dependent on how you view Aaron Craft.  I see LaQuinton Ross as a late first rounder at this point, but could be the best true scorer in the Big Ten this year.  Ohio State could win the conference, or finish 5th or 6th.  It is all dependent on their guard play, and Thad Matta likely figures it out.

There are other intriguing storylines in the conference as well.  The Richard Pitino era begins at Minnesota, with the Golden Gophers returning Andre Hollins at the point.  Bo Ryan's team is overlooked, likely, again.  Why??  The Badgers are always among the best defensive, and least turnover prone teams in the country.  Plus, Wisconsin boasts an NBA talent on the wing in Sam Dekker- a player who reminds me of Gordan Hayward.  Wisconsin may not be a top team in the conference, but they deserve a top 20 preseason national ranking.  Is there a bigger matchup nightmare than AJ Hammons (Purdue) in the conference?  He is an athletic 7 footer who is poised to breakout this season.  I currently don't have him in the top 50, but significant strides could not only thrust him into the first round picture, but also put Purdue basketball back in the national picture.

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Michigan State
2 Michigan
3 Indiana
4 Wisconsin
5 Ohio State
6 Purdue
7 Minnesota
8 Illinois
9 Northwestern
10 Iowa
11 Penn State
12 Nebraska

Conference Player of the Year:  Keith Appling/Michigan State
All Conference Team:
Keith Appling/Michigan State
LaQuinton Ross/Ohio State
Glenn Robinson III/Michigan
Sam Dekker/Wisconsin
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best case- 8, worst case- 5


Big 12:
This will be Andrew Wiggins' conference- no doubt in my mind.  Bill Self has perhaps his best team in the past 5 seasons, a lot of which can be attributed to Wiggins' decision to play at Kansas.  He is an NBA Superstar in waiting- think of a player along the lines of a Tracy McGrady.  The biggest attribute holding Wiggins back at this point is his sub-par outside shooting.  If he can prove to be a competent outside shooter, off the dribble especially, Wiggins will be unbelievable.  If he develops like I think he will, he will be an All-Star more times than not.

The rest of the Kansas squad is good too.  Another top recruit- and potential top 10 selection- is center Joel Embiid.  The 7 footer is raw offensively, but has the defensive tools to be a Roy Hibbert like player in the NBA.  At this point, he has high bust potential, but will likely prosper in the college game like previous centers have done in Bill Self's system- most recently Jeff Withey.  Also returning for the Jayhawks is combo forward Perry Ellis, who is surprisingly athletic and versatile.  Point guard play could be an issue, but the ball is likely in Wiggins' hands late in a game anyways.

Oklahoma State is the other team in the conference who could win the conference.  Marcus Smart could be the best PG in the country, and has a chance to lead the Big 12 in assists.  He has competent players around him in the erratic LeBryan Nash and streaky Markel Brown.  When it all comes together?  Oklahoma State could be one to watch closely- and not just inside the conference.

The Baylor Bears will be strong again as well.  Isaiah Austin was supposed to be a national player of the year candidate last year, but did not quite live up to the hype.  He is still a potential top 10 pick as an athletic 7'1" power forward who has an all around game.  Austin's draft stock and season with Baylor depends largely on his mindset.  Will he be a player who is tough or one who wants to avoid adversity?  Cory Jefferson is the heart and soul of the team, and shooter Brady Heslip returns as well.  The Bears could make a run in March.

The other teams, yes, including Texas, don't quite match-up to the top 3.  The Big 12 is a top heavy conference this year.  Texas' Cameron Ridley is intriguing, but he reminds me too much of Josh Smith, and likely doesn't make much of an impact.  Iowa State has a great player in Niang, and one of the best young coaches in the country in Fred Hoiberg.  Iowa State will win some games against top teams and lose some head scratchers.  Is it enough to get them to the NCAA Tournament?

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Kansas
2 Oklahoma State
3 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 Kansas State
6 West Virginia
7 Texas
8 Oklahoma
9 Texas Tech
10 TCU

Conference Player of the Year:  Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
All Conference Team:  
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Wayne Selden/Kansas
Georges Niang/Iowa State
Cory Jefferson/Baylor
NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best Case- 6, Worst Case- 3

Mountain West:



No, the Mountain West doesn't have a national championship contender.  But could one prove me wrong?  Sure- the Mountain West is a deep conference, and whoever comes out on top needs to be taken seriously.  The two teams in the video who may hold the best chances to win the league:  Boise State and San Diego State.

And though I say Boise and San Diego are the favorites, New Mexico, Colorado State and Utah State all have a terrific chance as well.

Starting with Boise, the Broncos return two guards who were all-second team in the conference last year.  Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic both averaged north of 16 points per game with lethal 3 point strokes.  The Broncos won't play out of control, but they will push the ball in transition, especially in the hands of Marks and Drmic.  If these two can be the leaders the team needs, why couldn't Boise win the MWC?

Steve Fisher is the best coach in the conference.  He returns to SDSU with solid returners, including Xavier Thames and underrated stretch four JJ O'Brien.  Thames will likely take over the scoring demands of Jamaal Franklin, an athletic 3 man who was taken in the second round of the draft.  Defensively, San Diego State will be athletic and tough to beat in transition, which makes them a matchup nightmare for many teams in the conference.

New Mexico returns the best player in the conference in 7-footer Alex Kirk.  With Steve Alford having moved onto UCLA, look for the new-ish system to feature Kirk even more in the low post and in pick and pop situations.  He is the favorite for conference player of the year (Spoiler alert...).  Colorado State lost big man Colton Iverson, but the biggest loss are all of the other starters- a cohesive unit that led to big wins last year.  I liked the depth of the team last year- though all of the new starters are unproven.  Call it a shot in the dark, but I like Colorado State's chances to make at least the NIT this year.  Finally, UNLV lost top overall pick Anthony Bennett after one year, and had stretch four Mike Moser transfer to Oregon.  What is there to like about this UNLV squad?

Conference Standings Prediction:  
1 Boise State
2 New Mexico
3 San Diego State
4 Utah State
5 UNLV
6 Colorado State
7 Wyoming
8 Fresno State
9 Nevada
10 Air Force
11 San Jose State

Conference Player of the Year:  Alex Kirk/New Mexico
All Conference Team: 
Xavier Thames/SDSU
Derrick Marks/Boise State
Anthony Drmic/Boise State 
Preston Medlin/Utah State
Alex Kirk/New Mexico

NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best case- 4, worst case- 2

Pac 12:

 
Pac-12 basketball is going to make a resurgence.  For a while, the Pac-12 was, arguably, the best conference in the country.  For the past few seasons, the talent level has dropped off.  This season, the Pac-12 will earn more berths than they have over the past few seasons.

The conference all starts with Arizona.  Arizona has a lot of talent, and deserves to be a top-5 team for preseason.  Aaron Gordon is the biggest recruit the team earned- a player who was the MVP at the U19 World Championships for team USA.  His game is reminiscent of Blake Griffin- highlighted by huge dunks and impressive athleticism.  Also a freshman, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson steps in as a Gerald Wallace type player who can do a bit of everything, and needs to work on his shot.  There is no reason he can't be the best defensive player in the Pac-12 this year.  Returning for the Arizona Wildcats is an impressive group as well.  Guard Nick Johnson leads the way as a player who likely leads the talent-rich team in scoring.  Brandon Ashley steps into a more prominent role in year two, and center Kaleb Tarczewski is a candidate to be a double-double player and first round draft pick.  The team could use some more outside shooting, but that is just splitting hairs- there is A LOT to like about this year's Wildcats.

Perhaps the biggest threat to Arizona is Oregon.  Under Dana Altman, the program has entered the national picture with no intent to leave.  Expect the Ducks program to keep improving, with higher level of recruits entering the picture.  For this year's team, guard play will be very strong.  Point guards Dominic Artis and Jonathan Lloyd and shooting guard Damyean Dotson will lead the way, putting up impessive scoring and defensive numbers.  UNLV transfer Mike Moser- a former All-American- joins the program after an ugly elbow injury severely affected his last year in Las Vegas.  If he can return to form, he will have a Kazemi-like effect on the team.  The biggest question mark surrounds the departure of Tony Woods, who graduated.  Woods was the only true center on the roster, and the team will be looking for answers regarding defense of the big and athletic centers the conference boasts.

In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC made coaching changes.  New Mexico's Steve Alford took the position at UCLA, and inherits a roster that is very competitive.  Led by point forward Kyle Anderson and shooting guard Jordan Adams, UCLA should have no issues scoring the ball.  Their biggest issue is mental:  Can Alford get his players to commit?  He has many top recruits from the Ben Howland era, but many have not lived up to their potential.  Based solely on talent, UCLA is a tournament team.  Former Florida Gulf Coast head coach Andy Enfield has a difficult task on his hands.  "Dunk City" may come to USC, but he does not have the same level of players on the roster that their rivals do.  Perhaps the best players on the roster are Omar Oraby and Byron Wesley.  Orabi is a load at 7-2, 270 pounds, a matchup nightmare for most teams.  He is improving offensively, and is athletic like a guard.  He is a terrific shot blocker and should have more of an impact than DeWayne Dedmon had last year- look at Oraby to breakout.  Wesley, and returner Terrell, are the two best guards on the team, and will be looked upon for scoring in bunches.  USC's future is looking up with Enfield in charge, it just may not appear so in the first year's win-loss column.

Arizona State will also be talented.  Jahii Carson is among the best PGs in the country- averaging 18.5 points and over 5 assists last year.  He will make a run at the first round of the draft, and is a front runner for conference POY.  Bachynski returns as another 7 foot center in the conference, and should be part of an intriguing pick and roll game with Carson.

The Washington Huskies will be back in the tournament this year.  CJ Wilcox returns as one of the best shooters in the conference, along with solid role players in Desmond Simmons and Shawn Kemp Jr.  The most underrated player in the conference may be freshman PG Nigel Williams-Gross.  A terrific shooter and ball handler, expect Lorenzo Romar to hand him the keys early on. 

Stanford and Cal have potential to make runs, but both look more like NIT teams.  Stanford returns potential NBA Draft choice Dwight Powell as a player ready to take the step towards being a star for a team.  He has the ability to take over games, at 6'10", and not many teams have athletic big men who can keep up with him.  Cal returns Justin Cobbs, who averaged 15 points and nearly 5 assists last year.  Look for Cobbs, and forward Richard Solomon, to take on much of the scoring demand the team had for Allan Crabbe (now of the Portland Trail Blazers).

Colorado has very intriguing pieces as well.  Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie is a potential first round pick and center Josh Scott is a capable interior scorer.  The loss of Andre Roberson hurts, especially on the glass and the defensive end, but Dinwiddie has potential to be a special player.  At 6'5", Dinwiddie will have mismatches against many PG's he goes up against.  Who knows, maybe Colorado has good karma coming after the Chen-sanity didn't pan out.

Oregon State- my alma mater- is in a state of confusion.  Craig Robinson is squarely on the hot seat, and my predictions likely won't be enough for him to survive.  Oregon State returns forwards Devon Collier and Eric Moreland as athletic postmen who are terrific defensively and can score around the basket.  The only problems are for off-court misconduct with these two (rumored to be related to failed drug tests).  Collier is suspended for the season opener and Moreland is suspended for the first 14 games.  Likely, Oregon State won't recover from this.  Angus Brandt, a sweet shooting center from Australia, likely leads the team in scoring, and Roberto Nelson likely steps up as the highest scoring guard.  There is a lot to like about the Beavers, but it will be very surprising if they perform any better than average.

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Arizona
2 Oregon
3 Arizona State
4 UCLA
5 Washington
6 Colorado
7 Stanford
8 California
9 USC
10 Oregon State
11 Washington State
12 Utah

Conference Player of the Year:  Jahii Carson/Arizona State
All Conference Team:
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Dominic Artis/Oregon
Nick Johnson/Arizona
Aaron Gordon/Arizona
Dwight Powell/Stanford
NCAA Tournament Teams:  Best Case- 7, Worst Case- 4


SEC:


Like it or not, this is still Kentucky's conference.  After an incredible recruiting class- highlighted in the video above- led by Julius Randle, James Young and the Harrison Twins, Kentucky is back in the national spotlight as a national title contender.  Randle is thought of by some to be a threat to Andrew Wiggins for the #1 pick in the next draft (I have him ranked #3).  This type of high praise means a large role is at stake for the freshman, and a role he should handle nicely.  The Harrison twins can be selfish at times, but given the talent on the roster I think opinions will sway.  Young is uber-athletic and Johnson has potential to be a great post scorer at the college game.  Adding in the two promising sophomores in Cauley-Stein and Poythress and Kentucky has 7 potential first round picks.  Ridiculous.  Just like this team will be.

Kasey Hill, another heralded freshman, will lead the Florida Gators in their pursuit of another deep NCAA run.  The Gators are bolstered by the returns of Patric Young and Will Yeguette, and have a team Billy Donovan should be able to work wonders with.  I am not saying Florida is a top contender, but if Hill pans out, they sure could be.

The rest of the SEC leaves something to be desired- how good is the SEC really going to be?  I see Kentucky and Florida as elite in the conference, and a fuzzy collection of average teams.  LSU could be good, as Johnny O'Bryant could emerge as a go to option in the mold of Anthony Randolph.  That said, can a team led by O'Bryant really make much noise?  Missouri has a really intriguing scoring point guard in Jabari Brown, but all of his supporting cast either graduated or left early for the draft.  Brown could lead the conference in scoring, but is that enough to get to March Madness? 

At Alabama, Anthony Grant has a strong defensive unit, led by Trevor Releford.  Offensively, the team will shoot lots from the outside, but in reality none of their shooters have stepped up in the past in major ways.  Can this year be different?  Arkansas landed a nationally ranked recruit in Bobby Portis, a 6-9 forward who can score in a variety of ways, but the rest of the roster hasn't done anything meaningful in the past.  Can Arkansas be a sleeper? 

Vanderbilt won 10 conference games last year, and return three of their top four leading scorers.  More than many other teams in the conference return, look for Vanderbilt, led by an emerging Dai-Jon Parker.  Also in the same state lies Tennessee, a team with a player of the year candidate in Jarnell Stokes.  He will average a double double this year for the Volunteers.  Guard Jordan McRae also returns for Tennessee, and will likely lead the team in scoring.  The Vols will be a tournament team this year.

To conclude the SEC analysis, there is a lot of uncertainty.  Two or three teams (depending on how you view Tennessee) will break away, and the others will toil away in 7-9 or 8-8 status.  Questions will plague this conference about how good it truly is.  Questions like:  Can Marshall Henderson bring Ole Miss back to the NCAA Tournament?  Don't hold your breath on it.  Is this Kentucky class better than any ever?  Possibly, this team is very good- but we thought this last year too. 

Conference Standings Prediction:
1 Kentucky
2 Florida
3 Tennessee
4 Vanderbilt
5 Missouri
6 Alabama
7 LSU
8 Arkansas
9 Texas A&M
10 Ole Miss
11 Georgia
12 South Carolina
13 Mississippi
14 Auburn

Conference Player of the Year:  Julius Randle/Kentucky
All Conference Team:
Kasey Hill/Florida
Andrew Harrison/Kentucky
Jabari Brown/Missouri
Julius Randle/Kentucky
Jarnell Stokes/Tennessee
NCAA Tournament Teams: Best case- 6, Worst Case- 4


Other Mid Majors:

Other teams throughout the country not in a major conference or notable mid major will have big seasons as well.  They are:

Gonzaga- The obvious choice.  Mark Few's Bulldogs return potential All-American Kevin Pangos as the point and Gary Bell Jr. at the two spot.  Inside Karnowski could have a breakout year, and fellow big man Sam Dower is reliable.  This team is as deep as it gets in the NCAAs, and Gonzaga will be a top team yet again this year.

Harvard- Is Harvard becoming east coast Gonzaga??  Not so fast, but they look like an Ivy League power here to stay.  Chambers (Ivy League POY candidate) and Saunders both return for the Crimson, and Harvard is a sneaky pick to the sweet 16- you heard it here first!

Wichita State- We all saw the shockers in the Final Four.  Cleanthony Hall returns to lead the team that only lost Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead amogst the major contributors.  Do I expect another deep NCAA Tournament run?  Absolutely not.  But the team will win the MVC, and be seeded between a 7-10 again.

Iona- Iona plays an up and down style that involves launching threes and high scoring games.  Guard Sean Armand returns and Rutgers transfer Mike Poole could lead the team in scoring at over 20 per game.  Iona will make the tourney, and likely crush someone's dream in round one.

LA Lafayette- Every year, an under the radar team with a star point guard takes a team farther than expected.  Meet Elfrid Payton- the Ragin' Cajuns star PG who averaged 15-5-5 last year.  Watch for Payton to be in the NPOY picture if he can lead LA Lafayette to the tournament- a very daunting task for a team that would not be in this post had it not been for Payton.


NATIONAL PICTURE:

Top 25:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Arizona
5 Michigan
6 Duke
7 Gonzaga
8 Oklahoma State
9 Kentucky
10 Florida
11 Oregon
12 Indiana
13 Wisconsin
14 Baylor
15 VCU
16 Syracuse
17 Villanova
18 Xavier
19 Creighton
20 Notre Dame
21 North Carolina
22 Arizona State
23 Harvard
24 Georgetown
25 UCLA

National Player of the Year:  Russ Smith/Louisville
All American Team:
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Russ Smith/Louisville
Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Jabari Parker/Duke
Doug McDermott/Creighton

Final Four Prediction:
Louisville
Michigan State
Arizona
Kansas

Rationale:  Would I have them rated as the top 4 teams if I didn't think they would end up that way?

National Champion: Michigan State



Sunday, October 6, 2013

CJ McCollum Hurt

It just can't seem that Rip City can catch a break.  Promising first round pick CJ McCollum broke his fifth metatarsal- little toe side- in his left foot, and will require surgery.  McCollum will likely miss at least half of the season, though no timetable will be set until after the foot is surgically repaired.  How does this injury affect the start of the season in Portland?

Mo Williams will play a larger role- potentially up to 25 mpg- as the definite sixth man of this team.  The starters won't be affected, other than potentially playing more minutes.  The depth of the team is still much better than in the 2012/13 season, but the injury does hurt.  Will Allan Crabbe or Will Barton step into more minutes?  Does Stotts opt for Claver and Wright in using a larger wing rotation?

The biggest effect CJ McCollum's injury will have will be less perimeter shooting by the bench unit.  Wright and Williams are capable shooters, as are Claver and Freeland to an extent (For the record, I am still a Freeland fan).  My biggest question mark surrounds Allan Crabbe's ability to hit the NBA 3.  No doubt he was a great shooter at Cal, and I graded him as a late first rounder for last year's draft.  He shot poorly (25% on 16 attempts) in summer league from 3, but I would assume he has been getting repetition after repetition in practice and in intrasquad scrimmages. 

On the surface, McCollum's injury hurts a lot.  The truth?  It might.  He may have been the best scorer on our bench.  Portland, however, does have pieces who could potentially fill the void.  Mo Williams needs to be our 6th man- and an efficient one at that.  Crabbe needs to shoot well, and Barton needs to be efficient when he gets the chance.   Hypothetically, I think CJ would have started the season getting 15-18 mpg.  Likely, half those minutes go to Mo Williams, a few are absorbed by Lillard and Matthews, and either Crabbe, Barton or Claver get tossed a few as well.  I am anxious, but excited, to see how this team responds.  I want to know how mentally tough the 2013/14 Blazers are.

Follow on Twitter @ZRey12

*Expect a comprehensive college basketball preview within the next week, and a Blazers/NBA preview within the next 2 weeks.  Basketball is coming, my friend, and it is AMAZING!