Week 5 College Football Picks- Against The Spread

Last week, I went 17-1 in a week where no top team was upset.  I am now 51-7 on the season.  To make things more difficult, I will be picking this week against the spread.  To clarify, just because I choose a team who may be, say, +19, it doesn't necessarily mean I think they will win the game.  Rather, it indicates the team will cover the spread.  I will, however, put a score prediction after the ATS pick.

#1 Alabama (-16.5) over #21 Ole Miss, Alabama wins 31-10
#2 Oregon (-36) over Cal, Oregon wins 55-14
#3 Clemson (-28.5) over Wake Forest, Clemson wins 35-3
Wisconsin (+7) over #4 Ohio State, Wisconsin wins 21-20
#5 Stanford (-10) over Washington State, Stanford wins 35-17
#9 Georgia (-3) over #6 LSU, Georgia wins 24-17
#8 Florida State (-22) over Boston College, Florida St. wins 31-7
#10 Texas A&M (-3) over Arkansas, Texas A&M wins 24-20
#11 Oklahoma State (-19) over West Virginia, Oklahoma State wins 49-13
#12 South Carolina (-7) over UCF, South Carolina wins 28-7
#22 Notre Dame (+3.5) over #14 Oklahoma, Oklahoma wins 28-25
#15 Miami (-19) over South Florida, Miami wins 31-10
#16 Washington (-10) over Arizona, Washington wins 35-24
#20 Florida (-13.5) over Kentucky, Florida wins 20-3
Hawaii (+19) over #25 Fresno State, Fresno State wins 31-14

#NBARank Analysis: Players 301-400

"This year, we asked our ESPN Forecast panel to predict the overall level of play for each player for the upcoming NBA season. This includes both the quality and the quantity of his expected contributions, combined in one overall rating."

How did ESPN do with their list from 301-400?  The network divides players into blocks of 25; I will be analyzing an overrated and underrated player for each block.

400-376:
Overrated- Derek Fisher (#381)- Fisher is a good set shooter, and is a smart player on the court.  He had a major role in the NBA Players' Association.  From a basketball standpoint, he should probably be out of the league.  Sure he has a knack for hitting clutch shots, but he is virtually unplayable for most of a game, especially on the defensive end.  420-430 seems more appropriate.

Other- Royal Ivey (#395)

Underrated- Giannis Antetokounmpo (#376)- He is mysterious, and likely plays in the D-League for the first chunk of the year.  Given the other small forwards on the roster, he could get a chance to start next to Henson/Sanders in a group once the Bucks are eliminated from playoff contention- should be around midseason.  I have solid expectations for Giannis, and think he will pan out for John Hammond.

Other- Luigi Datome (#397)

375-351:
Overrated- Josh Childress (#361)- Childress will have a tough time making a roster, yet voters somehow rated him above over 100 more players, many with superior talent and potential.  While his afro may be the best in the league, he is a slasher who can't get to the rim, and an unreliable outside shots.  He should be below 450.

Other- Marcus Camby (#363)

Underrated- Perry Jones III (#368)- I still believe Jones III has a bright future, and he should see more minutes in OKC this year.  He is a 6'11 forward who is a good ball handler for the forward position.  He is a decent rebounder and shot blocker due to his athleticism and length.  He is a more reliable outside shot away from producing like Earl Clark last year in LA.  If he doesn't get minutes in OKC, someone else should take a chance on Jones.  It will pay off.

Other- Tony Mitchell (#366)

350-326:
Overrated: Anthony Randolph (#343)- Don't get me wrong, Randolph still has potential.  He is only 24 years old and entering his 6th season in the NBA.  He has been a bust so far- his physical gifts were too tempting at the time.  Don't expect Randolph to get many minutes in a crowded front court rotation.  He could make a bigger impact on a different team, but don't expect any significant production from Randolph, a player who will be stuck as a 13th man this year.

Underrated:  Kent Bazemore (#332)- Bazemore has potential to be an electric scorer, and a lockdown defender.  He has potential to be a more athletic Wesley Matthews if his offense, and outside shot in particular, continue to improve.  He could be a dunk contest candidate due to his ridiculous athleticism, and he improves the depth in GS even after the loss of Jarrett Jack.  At this time next year, he could move up another 100 spots.

Others:  Tony Wroten (#341), Hasheem Thabeet (#347)

325-301:
Overrated:  Charlie Villanueva (#313)- How much production are we really expecting from Villanueva?  He is likely behind Jerebko, Singler, Datome and Tony Mitchell on the depth chart, and is a limited defensive player.  Finally in the last year of his contract, he could be moved to a tanking team (yes, the 2014 draft class is tank worthy) for a younger prospect.  This could be the end of the line in the NBA for Charlie.

Other:  Joel Anthony (#311)

Underrated:  Kendall Marshall (#320)  Marshall is now stuck on the depth chart behind Dragic and Bledsoe, and may find very few minutes to start the year.  Unfortunately, the Suns will struggle again this year, which could make way for more time on the court after midseason for Marshall.  Widely regarded as the best passer in the 2012 draft, Marshall could find himself more time next to Dragic/Bledsoe if he improves his shooting.

Others:  John Jenkins (#301)

Blazers NBA 2K14 Ratings

Today, the rankings come out for NBA 2K14.  Straight from the Blazers' Facebook page (Casey Holdahl), here are the ranks for the Blazers:

Player	Rating	IN	OUT	PER D	POST D	HNDL	REB	IQ
L. Aldridge	84	A	C+	D+	B-	D+	B-	A-
D. Lillard	84	C+	A-	B	F	A	D-	A-
M. Williams	78	C	A	B+	D-	B	D-	B+
N. Batum	78	C+	B-	B+	C+	C-	C-	B+
W. Matthews	77	C+	B	A	D	C	D-	B+
T. Robinson	74	B	F	C	C+	D-	B+	C+
C. McCollum	74	C+	B+	C+	F	B-	D-	B-
D. Wright	72	C	C+	B-	D+	C	C	B
R. Lopez	68	C+	F	D-	B+	F	C	B-
E. Watson	67	D+	C+	B	F	A-	D	C
A. Crabbe	64	C	B+	C+	D-	C	D+	C
J. Freeland	63	C+	D+	D-	C-	D	B	C-
V. Claver	61	C	B-	D+	C-	D+	D+	C
W. Barton	58	C-	D+	C+	F	C+	C-	D
M. Leonard	58	D+	F	D-	B-	F	C	C-

Analysis:

Aldridge is ranked too low at 84.  He is a top 3 PF in the game, but is likely ranked behind Kevin Love and Blake Griffin- I'd take Aldridge over Griffin personally, but these are the 3 best PF's in the game right now.  Offensively, he is dominant, as indicated by his A grade for inside scoring.  Defensively, he is underrated, where his B- grade should be closer to a B+.  While he rebounding is not great, we are still talking about a guy who averaged 9 per game, and the B- rating may be slightly on the low side.

Damian Lillard was graded nicely by the 2K crew, tied for Aldridge for tops on the team with an 84 grade.  His outside scoring, IQ and handle grades will lead to impressive stats over game simulations, and his defense may be slightly overrated at a B grade.  Nic Batum, graded as a 78, and Wesley Matthews, graded as a 77, are in similar spots as in last year's game.  Doesn't that seem accurate?  Batum is inconsistent, but has all of the tools to put together a 16-5-5 season.  Given all scores in the C range or higher, this is reflected.  Matthews is given credit for being the best perimeter defender on the team.  While Batum has his pundits, Matthews is the best Blazer to be thrown on a Kobe Bryant or a James Harden.  His outside shooting score is high, and his status in the game seems accurate.

After those four players, the ratings need to be questioned.  Does anyone really believe Mo Williams is worthy of a 78 rating?  Veteran players have been comically overrated over the last 3-5 years in 2K's NBA series, and it appears that this will be a similar situation.  No one can deny Williams ability to shoot from range- an A grade- but it is nearly shocking to see him rated as a B+ perimeter defender.  Last season Williams posted a pedestrian 111 defensive rating.  That earns a B+?  Like Williams, Earl Watson- graded as a 67- is overrated.  Watson seems like a solid candidate to start the season on IR, and to see him ranked as the team's 10th best player- and 9 points better than Meyers Leonard (more to come) is a mistake.  Watson should be graded as a 60 at best (though, in true Blazer fan colors, I hope I am wrong!)

If the ratings of Thomas Robinson, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright and CJ McCollum prove to be accurate, the Blazers did an awesome job of improving their bench (I, again, agree that the team did).  Robinson may be optimistically graded, but he is still a top 5 pick oozing with potential, and he could be the best rebounder on the team- just as 2K ranks him.  Robin Lopez is graded as the team's best post defender, but has a shockingly accurate C rating for rebounding.  Dorell Wright is the likely sixth man to start the year for Rip City, and is known for his ability to stretch the defense with his accurate 3 point shot (37.5% last year over 361 attempts).  He is graded as a C+ for outside shooting, which is puzzling, especially given Victor Claver (28% last year over 87 attempts) is rated as a B-.  Did 2K do their homework on this one?  CJ McCollum, the rookie who Portland selected at 10 in the draft, grades as a 74, which is 4 points higher than Lillard was initially graded as a rookie last year.  This shows 2K thinks McCollum is NBA ready, and with the outside shot (B+) to stretch the defenses and earn minutes.  At a 74 though, is he really only three points worse overall than Wesley Matthews?

The end of the bench is shockingly similar to last year's ratings.  Did 2K review these again?  Apparently they thought no one would notice, as Joel Freeland is still rated as a 63 despite an underwhelming rookie campaign, and Meyers Leonard is given a 58 rating, and poor offensive grades despite showing potential in that area.  Barton and Claver's scores are reminiscent of last year's game, and Crabbe- a rookie- is given a 64 grade.  No doubt shooting in video games is a worthy attribute, but he will be struggling to find minutes, especially at the start of the year.

Overall, 2K did a decent job with their ratings- some better than others.  The actual game 2K puts out is always worth the money, having improved the game noticeably over the past few years.  I will be a consumer in the game, and realize that, given online status in the game, ratings can fluctuate throughout the season.  That said, if I were giving the Blazers overall ratings for NBA 2K14, they would look like this:

Lamarcus Aldridge: 88
Damian Lillard: 84
Nicolas Batum: 79
Wesley Matthews: 78
Mo Williams: 73
Dorell Wright: 73
Thomas Robinson: 70
Robin Lopez: 69
CJ McCollum: 68
Victor Claver: 65
Meyers Leonard: 64
Allan Crabbe: 61
Earl Watson: 60
Joel Freeland: 60
Will Barton: 57

10 Intriguing Questions for College Basketball Season

Last season was excellent in college basketball.  The 2013 NCAA tournament was unbelievably competitive, characterized by upsets, highlight reel plays, and too much Louisville.  Here are a few of my favorite videos from last season, including a season highlight mix:

The dunk that almost broke twitter:

And a compelling title game:

This season, I project a season that can rival last season's story lines.  Here are ten questions I have regarding the season:

1.  How do coaching changes affect the conference and national landscapes?

Perhaps the biggest loss, is former Butler coach Brad Stevens signing a six year deal with the Boston Celtics- a hire I love by the NBA franchise.  Stevens has led a Butler program to unprecedented success without many high recruits.  Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard, Roosevelt Jones, and most successful, Gordon Hayward were the top players representing the team that made back-to-back national title game appearances.  The Butler team still has some talent, but will losing Stevens drastically affect the Bulldogs' season?

In Los Angeles, both UCLA and USC have hired new coaches in the Pac-12.  UCLA lured Steve Alford away from New Mexico- a program that had been successful over the past few seasons, and will be a good team again this year.  He inherits a team with talent, led by point forward Kyle Anderson and wing Jordan Adams.  If Alford can get the team to play cohesively, the Bruins should gain a berth in the NCAA tournament once again.  USC hired Florida Gulf Coast's Andy Enfield, who was a media darling after he coached the #15 seed team to a sweet 16 appearance.  His team showed an ability to convert lots of alley-oops in the tournament, and was exciting to watch against Georgetown and San Diego State- both wins.  Can Enfield find more success in the Pac-12?

Minnesota hired Richard Pitino from FIU.  Northwestern hired Duke assistant Chris Collins.  Eddie Jordan goes to Rutgers.  Tubby Smith was hired at Texas Tech.  Expect all of these coaching changes to be instrumental over the next 3-5 seasons, but I doubt any of these teams make the NCAA tournament this next year.

2.  Does conference re-alignment dictate more berths to mid-majors?

The Big East- widely regarded as the top conference over the last 5 years- has essentially dissolved.  Many teams have left for the ACC, some formed the American conference, and others lie in a "Big East Purgatory-" for lack of a better phrase.  Will this realignment mean more berths for other conferences, namely mid majors?  I think yes, and expect the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, in particular, to reap the benefits.  I predict 10 teams from the two conferences combined will make the tournament next year.

3.  Will the Pac-12, once again, rise to becoming a great conference?

The Pac-12 will be better.  Arizona is the favorite to win the conference, returning guard Nick Johnson, forward Brandon Ashley and center Kaleb Tarczewski to join with blue chip recruits Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.  The team has the initial look of a top 10 team, given Johnson proves he can handle the ball efficiently.

The Oregon Ducks are a team to watch as well.  They have one of the best backcourts in the country in Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson, and received a gift of a transfer in former All-American Mike Moser, who is coming off an elbow injury at UNLV.  If the Ducks find a presence inside, they could compete for a conference title.

Arizona State, led by Jahii Carson, Washington, led by Nigel Williams-Gross, and UCLA will all be factored into the national picture at some point.  Expect the Pac-12 to end up with 5 bids, minimum, in the NCAA tournament.

4.  Can Louisville repeat?

Russ Smith is back to lead the Cardinals, along with a still-impressive supporting cast of Behanan, Harrell, Blackshear, Jones and Ware.  The season's success all rely on Smith's ability to produce, and, I don't expect him to disappoint.  I think Louisville's defense is stellar again, and Behanan and Harrell should matchup well at the forward spots.  The team may face difficulties against true centers, but not many teams can boast such an option.  I like Louisville to finish a top ten team once again.

5.  Will the freshman class impress as expected?

Last year, Calipari's one and done crowd disappointed, and a few of the players returned.  This year, Kentucky again boasts one of the top recruiting classes, highlighted by Jerome Randle, James Young, Dakari Johnson, and the Harrison twins.  Coupled with the return of Poythress and Cauley-Stein, and UK could be a force to reckon with again.  I think this team is much better than last year, led by Rande and Andrew Harrison.

The freshman class at Arizona will be good, and Kansas has three potential top 5 picks in Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Wayne Selden.  Wiggins will be a preseason All-American as a freshman with an excellent chance to win the award.  If he can prove to be an effective outside shooter, he will average 18-8 as a wing, and lead Kansas deep into the tournament.  Kansas' freshman class will outshine the one at Kentucky.

Finally, will Jabari Parker be the go-to guy at Duke?  He is a tremendous scorer, and will be lethal at the college level.  Next to Sulaimon and Marshall Plumlee, Duke has a young big three that could lead to an ACC title this year.

6.  Who will be the All-Americans?

Here are my pre-preseason picks- I have the right to change this in my official college basketball preview which will come out next month:

In no particular order, here are some players I expect to write about on the list next month,

Andrew Wiggins/Kansas
Alex Kirk/New Mexico
Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State
Gary Harris/Michigan State
Mitch McGary/Michigan
Russ Smith/Louisville
Doug McDermott/Creighton
Kevin Pangos/Gonzaga
Adreian Payne/Michigan State
Jahii Carson/Arizona State
Jerelle Benimon/Towson
Yogi Ferrell/Indiana
Chris Obekpa/St. John's
Briante Weber/VCU
Jerome Randle/Kentucky 

7.  What are the games to watch this season?

An early 10 I am looking forward to are:

Arizona vs. Michigan
Duke vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Kentucky
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Oregon vs. Georgetown
Duke vs. UCLA
VCU vs. Michigan (Would be 2nd round of Puerto Rico classic if all works out)
Gonzaga vs. Baylor (Would be 2nd round of Maui Invitational)
Syracuse vs. Indiana
Kansas vs. New Mexico

8.  Who are the top teams heading into the season?

Here is my preseason top 15:
1 Louisville
2 Kansas
3 Michigan State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Michigan
6 Arizona
7 Gonzaga
8 Kentucky
9 Indiana
10 Duke
11 Marquette
12 Florida
13 VCU
14 New Mexico
15 Oregon

9.  What teams are likely to disappoint?

Unfortunately, I think Syracuse and North Carolina, in particular, will take a step backwards this season.  Syracuse doesn't have a go to player offensively, and doesn't have many shooters.  Expect teams to pack the lane and make CJ Fair hit threes instead of getting to the rim, or the 8-12 foot range where he is so effective.  North Carolina returns PJ Hairston, who has had a flurry of off court issues this offseason.  I like Page at the point, and James has intriguing potential inside, but I like a lot of other ACC teams to knock off the Tar Heels this season.  It looks like an NIT type of year.

Wichita State was a great story last year, but I don't see much of a chance for the Shockers to repeat their success.  Likewise, don't expect another 30 win season from Memphis.  Both teams could be NCAA tournament bound again, but expecting a deep run is overly optimistic.

10. Which conferences will be the strongest?

Here is my prediction of the top 5 conferences:

1. ACC
2. Big 10
3. Big 12
4. Pac 12
5. SEC

A Storm Is Coming

The clouds are dark and gloomy.  Nearly black.  Rain pounds the ground with force, causing rivers to flow wild to the point of breaking over the edge.  No, I am not speaking of a horror movie- I am speaking of the state of college athletics as it pertains to illegal benefits, namely the paying of college athletes.  Oklahoma State, and Les Miles, are amidst a scandal involving sex, drugs and money to players, allegedly (SI).  Yahoo reported that 5 SEC players, and DJ Fluker being one, all received benefits in the tens-of-thousands of dollars range.  Today, Arian Foster said Tennessee provided him with benefits out of necessity because he was living in very poor conditions.  Given the current NCAA rules, expect eventual widespread sanctions.

Is it right?  Fair?  Justified to sanction these teams?  Under the current rules, it is.  Now you could give me your argument based on either side:

1.  College athletes should be paid like employees because of their demanding task in addition to taking classes.
2.  College athletes should not be paid because they already receive a free scholarship, and often on-campus housing and a meal plan.

I have heard both sides be very persuasive and convincing.  Personally, all of the logistics about "who" is getting paid need to be figured out in any proposal.  Do all athletes get a stipend, regardless of team affiliation?  Do you get more if your team brings in more money?  Is it based on physical ability?  Again, this needs to be carefully planned, or the NCAA could create more of a recruiting bias than the one that currently exists. 

Can these schools afford to pay athletes?  If all athletes get paid, only the biggest D-1 football powers would be able to afford giving salaries to college athletes.  This could eliminate small college schools from any sort of contention.  Good-bye underdogs like Boise State.  Because college presidents will be voting on this issue, I think they will elect to save as much money as possible. 

I don't expect a substantial change on this issue for a long time.  Too many factors need to come together- and fit together.  And while it is against the rules, I anticipate there is a highly esteemed D-1 program already giving out a stipend to its athletes, but the world will never know because it is against the rules.  Perhaps the best support that Universities can afford to pay college athletes:  It is already rampant across college sports in a plethora of forms.  Expect debate on this issue- its eventually going to get ugly.  So, I persist that a storm is coming over college football:  it could be in 6 months, 6 years or 16 years.  I tend to think it will be later rather than sooner.

College Football week 4 picks

Last week, I ran out of time to post week 3 picks, so I was 0-0 and am still 34-6 overall.

Here are my week 4 picks, minus the Clemson/NC State game last night:

#1 Alabama 38, Colorado State 6
#4 Ohio State 48, Florida A&M 3 (BONUS- I would start Kenny Guiton)
#5 Stanford 31, #23 Arizona State 21
#6 LSU 24, Auburn 13
#7 Louisville 50, Florida Int'l 7
#8 Florida State 49, Bethune Cookman 14
#9 Georgia 40, North Texas 13
#10 Texas A&M 28, SMU 10
#13 UCLA 38, New Mexico State 0
#15 Michigan 24, Connecticut 21
#16 Miami 31, Savannah State 6
#17 Washington 35, Idaho State 9
#18 Northwestern 45, Maine 3
#19 Florida 17, Tennessee 10
#20 Baylor 49, UL-Monroe 24
Michigan State 24, #22 Notre Dame 15
#24 Wisconsin 28, Purdue 15
#25 Texas Tech 35, Texas State 10

Overall, I am only picking one upset because of the lack of competitive games this week, at least on paper.  Next week, when conference play starts for most teams (or continues), expect a few more upsets to occur.  Until then, enjoy college football tomorrow!

2014 NFL Mock Draft

College football is in full swing.  Contenders and pretenders are emerging in the NFL.  Sounds like the perfect time to release mock draft 1.0!!  The draft order I am using is based on my predicted outcome for the season.  For ease of writing, ties in the standings are negligible for round 1 vs round 2 draft order.  Enjoy!

1.  Jacksonville- Teddy Bridgewater QB/Louisville- Best QB in the draft.  Period.  Book it.
2.  Cleveland- Tajh Boyd QB/Clemson- This pick likely comes down to Brett Hundley and Boyd.  I think Cleveland will opt for Boyd.
3.  Oakland- Jadaveon Clowney DE/South Carolina- The Raiders luck out here in adding the best player in the draft, regardless of position.  They can try to add a QB later.
4.  Tampa Bay- Brett Hundley QB/UCLA- Tampa, and Schiano, are in trouble if they stick with Freeman.  Hundley is the top QB available.
5.  NY Jets- Jake Matthews OT/Texas A&M- The Jets could go with a QB too.  But I think Geno plays well enough to avoid taking one in rd.1.  Adding protection is more important.
6.  Carolina- Marquise Lee WR/USC- Newton has an aging Steve Smith to throw to...  and basically nothing else.  They add the top WR in the draft here.
7.  Arizona- Anthony Barr LB/UCLA- Barr is potentially the best pass rusher on the board.  Across from Daryl Washington, the Cardinals could continue rebuilding their defense.
8.  Pittsburgh- Taylor Lewan OT/Michigan- The O-Line in Pittsburgh is brutal.  Lewan could go top 5, but falls to a happy Pittsburgh front office in this scenario.
9.  San Diego- Cyrus Kouandjio OT/Alabama- For the second straight season, the Chargers add a tackle from Alabama.  Rivers has looked better with improved protection.  Adding another OT here could be a major pick for an improving team.
10.  Tennessee- Louis Nix DT/Notre Dame- The million dollar question surrounds Jake Locker's future in Tennessee.  They could opt for Mariota here, but instead take the best DT in the draft.
11.  St. Louis- Ha Ha Clinton Dix S/Alabama- The Rams secondary is decent, but doesn't quite rival the incredible ones in the division.  Dix is a versatile safety that is an instant upgrade.
12.  Minnesota- Marcus Mariota QB/Oregon- Much to the dismay of Chip Kelly, Minnesota snags the best QB athlete in the draft.  Ponder isn't the answer, and read options between Peterson and Mariota would be flat-out unfair- in a good way!
13.  Buffalo- Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB/Oregon- Back to back Duck prospects go here, with Buffalo improving on their less than stellar secondary.  Buffalo too is in good hands for the future, but needs a lot of secondary help.
14.  Detroit- Bradley Roby CB/Ohio State- Perhaps this is the year that the Lions finally take a CB in rd. 1.  They desperately need help in the secondary, or else Rodgers and Cutler will continue to tear it apart.
15.  Dallas- Aaron Lynch DT/South Florida- Lynch is a terrific athlete, and has pass rush potential from the interior.  Dallas' defense will be a let down this year, so expect added help on the line.
16.  Washington- Sammy Watkins WR/Clemson- Griffin would be far more effective with a stud WR to throw to.  Garcon is better suited as a #2 WR, and Watkins offers top 10 value here.
17.  Kansas City- Stephon Tuitt DT/Notre Dame- Justin Houston has provided a pass rush opposite Hali, but the DT picks the franchise has made lately haven't panned out.  Tuitt has potential to be a matchup nightmare in the NFL.
18.  Baltimore- Mike Evans WR/Texas A&M- Think the Ravens regret dealing Boldin?  I do.  Evans has been an absolute beast thus far in the SEC, and shouldn't go any lower than this on draft day.
19.  NY Giants- Zack Martin OT/Notre Dame- Coughlin isn't afraid to reach for offensive lineman- a position that was highly regarded during both Super Bowl wins. 
20.  New England- Jordan Matthews WR/Vanderbilt- I understand that this is a very un-Belichick move, but Brady will push the envelope on this one.  He needs a WR so Edelman doesn't face 20 targets a game again.
21.  Philadelphia- Khalil Mack LB/Buffalo- The Eagles could use an improved pass rush, and Mack is the best left on the board that fit Chip Kelly's 3-4.
22.  Cleveland (from IND)- De'Anthony Thomas RB/Oregon- Cleveland takes a stab here at a RB/WR combo who is the most explosive player in the draft.  After losing Richardson, they need an explosive option for newly drafted Tajh Boyd (^see pick 2) to grow with.
23.  New Orleans- Scott Crichton DE/Oregon State- The Saints still need pass rush help, and Crichton is the best available at this point.  His motor is phenomenal, and he is impressively strong.
24.  Miami- Loucheiz Purifoy CB/Florida- A CB with a high ceiling, he could have a huge rest of the season to push him into rd. 1 territory.
25.  Chicago- Marcus Roberson CB/Florida- Teammates go back to back at the same position!  The Bears, like Detroit, have to upgrade their secondary.  Roberson is tops available.
26.  Atlanta- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins TE/Washington- This is likely Gonzalez's last year for real.  In Jenkins they add the best TE in the draft, and a perfect fit to replace Gonzalez.
27.  Cincinnati- Cameron Erving OT/Florida State- Dalton needs continued protection, and on a team with not many weaknesses, Erving fills a minor need.
28.  Green Bay- CJ Mosley LB/Alabama- The Packers continue to look for a middle linebacker, and, consequently, the top option in the draft falls into their lap.  Not bad!
29.  Houston- Anthony Johnson DT/LSU- Houston takes the best player on the board in the DT Johnson.  He provides an upgrade over the current options.
30.  San Francisco- Dominique Easley DE/Florida- Justin Smith needs a compliment at DE, and an eventual replacement.  Ideally, they kill two birds with one stone here.
31.  Denver- Adrian Hubbard OLB/Alabama- Given the off-field issues for Von Miller, it is important Denver add some competition to the mix.  Hubbard is a fast OLB who could be a top 20 pick on draft day.
32.  Seattle- Will Sutton DT/Arizona State- Sutton is a versatile DT who is an upgrade over McDaniel, and could fill Red Bryant's role as well.  He has been very productive, and is a steal at this point.
    
    ROUND 2
    
33.  Jacksonville- Kyle Van Noy DE/BYU
34.  Cleveland- James Hurst OT/North Carolina
35.  Oakland- Johnny Manziel QB/Texas A&M
36.  Tampa Bay- Justin Gilbert CB/Oklahoma State
    
37.  NY Jets- Josh Huff WR/Oregon
    
38.  Carolina- David Yankey G-T/Stanford
    
39.  Arizona- Stephon Morris QB/Miami FL
40.  Pittsburgh- Donte Moncrief WR/Ole Miss
41.  San Diego- Dri Archer RB/Kent State
    
42.  Tennessee- David Fales QB/San Jose State
43.  St. Louis- Ka'Deem Carey RB/Arizona
    
44.  Minnesota- Trent Murphy DE/Stanford
45.  Buffalo- Aaron Colvin CB/Oklahoma
46.  Detroit- Jason Verrett CB/TCU
47.  Dallas- AJ Johnson LB/Tennessee
48.  Washington- Gabe Jackson G/Mississippi State
49.  Kansas City- Christian Jones LB/Florida State
    
50.  Baltimore- Ra-Shede Hagaman DE/Minnesota
51.  NY Giants- DeAndre Coleman DE/California
    
52.  New England- Eric Ebron TE/North Carolina
    
53.  Philadelphia- Colt Lyerla TE/Oregon
54.  Indianapolis- Ed Stinson DE/Alabama
    
55.  New Orleans- Cyril Richardson OT/Baylor
    
56.  Miami- Lache Seastrunk RB/Baylor
57.  Chicago- Brandon Coleman WR/Rutgers
58.  Atlanta- Hronis Gassu C/Oregon
59.  Cincinnati- Yawin Smallwood ILB/Connecticut
60.  Green Bay- La'el Collins OT/LSU
    
61.  Houston- Ryan Shazier OLB/Ohio State
62.  San Francisco- Ed Reynolds S/Stanford
    
63.  Denver- Craig Loston S/LSU
64.  Seattle- Seantrel Henderson OT/Miami

Trent Richardson Traded

Yesterday, the Browns made headlines by trading second year RB- and 3rd overall pick- Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for their first round pick in the upcoming draft.  I'll give you a second to read that again.  Browns fans have to be confused- until they truly take the time to ponder this deal.  Even then, they may still be perplexed.

The Browns offense is worthless, even with Trent Richardson.  The best backs in the league struggle when the opposing teams put 9 players in the box.  Does anyone truly believe Brandon Weeden is the answer in Cleveland?  It was a funny moment when the Browns took Weeden in round 1- I had him graded as a 4th round pick.  Less than two year later, my initial impression seems to be correct.  The Browns are going to be a 3-13 team, if lucky.  The silver lining?  This is the entire point!!!

The 76ers in the NBA just traded their All-Star point guard for Nerlens Noel (my top prospect in the last draft) and a 1st round pick in 2014's NBA Draft- a VERY strong one.  What the Browns did here is similar.  The 2014 draft is loaded in terms of quarterbacks.  Likely first round picks include Teddy Bridgewater, Tajh Boyd and Marcus Mariota.  Johnny Manziel, David Fales, Derek Carr, AJ McCarron and Stephen Morris.  If the Browns want a change at QB, they did an excellent chance to line up for Bridgewater- only the Jaguars could be worse.

For the Colts, I don't see much downside.  They now have 2 of the top 3 players in last year's draft, and, Richardson gives Andrew Luck a very capable back to hand off to and relieve some of the pressure.  Luck is going to breakout this year.  Richardson will average between 4.8 and 5.0 yards per carry.  This is a no-brainer for the Colts- a team who likely picks in the 20s anyways.  Would anyone of Trent Richardson's capabilities have been there at, say, 25?  I highly doubt it.

In short, the Colts nailed this.  The Browns gave up on the season for a hope at landing a top QB in next year's draft.  Browns fans will see a season to forget.  But what about in 2 years?  3 years?  5?  10?  This trade should set up the Browns future nicely, and with two first round picks in the upcoming draft they can add a pair of players to make an immediate impact.

Grades:  Colts A, Browns A-, though if the Browns make poor draft choices I reserve the right to change this grade

Follow me on twitter @ZRey12

2014 NBA Draft Big Board.

2014 NBA Draft Big Board:  Given the rapid approach of college basketball, and the current FIBA Championship going on, it seems appropriate to reveal my top 50 big board to start the college basketball season.  You can find a link to this article on the right side of the blog!

As always, the grading system is as follows:
90-100 (Superstar) 80-89 (All-Star) 70-79 (Starter:) 60-69(Contributor) 50-59 (Role Player) <50 (Not Draftable)
                                                                                        

1. Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas, Fr.              Grade: 96
2. Dante Exum PG/Australia, Intl.              Grade: 92
3. Julius Randle PF/Kentucky, Fr.               Grade: 90
4. Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona, Fr.                Grade: 88
5. Jabari Parker SF/Duke, Fr.                      Grade: 87
6. Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State, So.  Grade: 81
7. Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia, Intl.             Grade: 81
8. Joel Embiid C/Kansas, Fr.                        Grade: 79
9. Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan, So.     Grade: 77
10. Gary Harris SG/Michigan State, So.       Grade: 76
11. Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky, Fr.        Grade: 75
12. Dario Saric F/Croatia, Intl.                       Grade: 75
13. Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky, So.       Grade: 75
14. Wayne Selden SG/Kansas, Fr.                  Grade: 74
15. Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor, So.                     Grade: 73
16. James Young SF/Kentucky, Fr.                Grade: 72
17. Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky, So.             Grade: 72
18. Jarnell Stokes PF/Tennessee, So.              Grade: 72
19. Montrezl Harris F/Louisville, So.            Grade: 72
20. Semaj Christon PG/Xavier, So.                Grade: 71
21. Chris Walker SF/Florida, Fr.                   Grade: 70
22. Jahii Carson PG/Arizona State, So.        Grade: 69
23. LaQuinton Ross SG/Ohio State, So.        Grade: 69
24. Mitch McGary C/Michigan, So.              Grade: 68
25. TJ Warren SF/NC State, So.                    Grade: 68
26. Russ Smith G/Louisville, Sr.                    Grade: 67
27. Rasheed Sulaimon G/Duke, So.               Grade: 66
28. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF/Arizona, Fr. Grade: 66
29. Aaron Harrison SG/Kentucky, Fr.           Grade: 65
30. Spencer Dinwiddie PG/Colorado, So.      Grade: 64
31. Vasilje Misic PG/Serbia, Intl.                   Grade: 64
32. Doug McDermott SF/Creighton, Sr.        Grade: 63
33. Jordan Adams SG/UCLA, So.                 Grade: 62
34. James McAdoo PF/North Carolina, So.  Grade: 61
35. Jerami Grant SF/Syracuse, Fr.                Grade: 60
36. Dakari Johnson C/Kentucky, Fr.             Grade: 60
37. Sam Dekker SF/Wisconsin, So.                Grade: 60
38. Adreian Payne PF/Michigan State, Sr.   Grade: 60
39. PJ Hairston SG/North Carolina, Jr.       Grade: 59
40. Damyean Dotson SG/Oregon, So.           Grade: 59
41. Nigel Williams-Gross PG/Washington, Fr.      Grade: 59
42. Mouhammadou Jaiteh C/France, Intl.   Grade: 57
43. Leo Westermann PG/France, Intl.          Grade: 57
44. Kyle Anderson SF/UCLA, So.                 Grade: 56
45. CJ Wilcox SG/Washington, Sr.                Grade: 56
46. Kaleb Tarczewski C/Arizona State, So.  Grade: 55
47. Wang Zhelin C/China, Intl.                     Grade: 55
48. LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State, So.  Grade: 54
49. Juvonte Reddic PF/VCU, Sr.                   Grade: 54
50. Dwight Powell PF/Stanford, Sr.              Grade: 54
    
    
    The season will see many changes, new additions, injuries/off-court issues, and lots of excitement.  Stay Tuned!

#NBARank Analysis: Players 401-500

NBARank came out again pre-NBA season with their least valuable 100 players in the league as surveyed by a plethora of ESPN and True Hoop Staff.  They posed the question:

"This year, we asked our ESPN Forecast panel to predict the overall level of play for each player for the upcoming NBA season. This includes both the quality and the quantity of his expected contributions, combined in one overall rating."

In essence, they have emphasized the word predict to influence the ratings to favor younger players than in the past- which has been plagued by over-ranking aging players.  I cannot say for certain whether this year's list will be different, but here is my analysis on who they ranked too low and too high:


Starting with the negatives, too high:  N/A- Calling an audible here.  These are players 401-500, essentially equating to current free agents or end of the bench caliber players.  You could argue a tenth of a point rating for any of these players, which would have a massive change on rank position.  For example, the difference between 401 and 450 is essentially 0.3- a negligible number at this point.  In the future, this category will be full.

Players who are sleepers this year, rated too low:

Victor Claver, Portland (#422)- Claver has been Mr. Intangible for the Spanish National Team this summer, and has a game that could mesh with any combination of players on the Blazers' roster.  Every team needs a player like Claver, and come mid-season, the analysts will see they ranked Claver far too low at 422.

Nate Wolters, Milwaukee (#438)- Wolter's is comparable to Jimmer Fredette- though not at this point.  That said, Fredette will be rated between 175-225 (if I guess) and Wolters is highly capable of many of the same responsibilities.  He could be the steal of the second round.

Nemanja Nedovic, Golden State (#447)- The rookie from Serbia can really score the ball, and could be looked upon as part of the replacement for Jarrett Jack.  Coupled with Kent Bazemore, the Warriors will have an uber-athletic backcourt behind Curry and Thompson, and a player who is severely underranked at #447.  I would expect him to be over 100 spots higher by midseason.

Other notables:
Ian Clark, Utah (#464)
Arsalan Kazemi, Philadelphia (#466)

Weekly Quick-Hits

- Mark Sanchez is likely to have season-ending surgery on his right shoulder after he suffered a torn labrum.  Don't expect to see him as a Jet next year, but do expect for him to be a highly sought after back-up quarterback next summer.  Would you feel safer with Mark Sanchez as a backup or a host of the backups currently in place?

- More information about Oklahoma State's football program has been shared about drug use.  Allegedly, drug use during the Les Miles era was rampant.  Is anyone surprised to see so many drug issues at LSU?  Have to think Tyrann Mathieu wasn't given the support he needed in the Tigers' program.

- Blazers have added Dee Bost, EJ Singler and Richard Howell to their training camp roster.  None of these players are likely to make the final roster, but all could potentially play for the Idaho Stampede.  Howell especially has potential as a backup 4 man with his rebounding prowess (double-double guy at NC State).  All are capable of playing small roles at the NBA level.

- Roger Goodell finally made a quote about the presence of the mascot "Redskin" in the NFL, speaking that public opinion needs to be heard.  Count me in the group that thinks a name change is in order, as the name is racist and offensive.  Dan Snyder will be vehemently opposed to any sort of change, so expect a long, drawn out process unlikely to make progress until after this season ends.  Washington Griffins?

- The 4th place team in the CONCACAF region plays New Zealand in a home & home to determine who gets to play in the World Cup.  All signs point to Mexico playing in this game.  The Mexican team has had their issues, but I would be stunned to see them miss the World Cup next year in Brazil.

- Talks for extension have broken down between Luol Deng and the Bulls.  Given the players set to become free agents, or have an option to become, Deng is a terrific player to be added to the list.  The 28 year old small forward is in his prime right now, and could fetch an offer between 44-52 million over 4 years.  His is a name to keep an eye on around the trade deadline if Chicago struggles.

- FIBA Eurobasket is nearing its end, with teams like Ukraine, Serbia, France, Spain and Lithuania playing well.  Here are a few players who have impressed thus far:

Nemanja Bjelica (Serbia)
Pooh Jeter (Ukraine)
Goran Dragic (Slovenia)- Phoenix Suns
Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania)- Toronto Raptors
Rudy Fernandez (Spain)
   
*Speaking of Rudy Fernandez, I really miss him as an NBA player.  He deserved a larger role with the Blazers, and did not receive it.  He became disgruntled and left, but has played well in Europe again.  He deserves another chance in the NBA- and I'd love to see him in Portland- if he chooses to come back to the States.

Michael Beasley, and the Tale of the #2 Overall Pick

The 6'10" forward from Kansas State has been deemed a liability thus far in his NBA career.  He has been called selfish, proven to be inefficient, and bounced from team to team after being selected number two overall by the Heat- one pick after Derrick Rose, and before Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert... you get the point.  The 2008 draft was thought to be strong at the time, and has shown to worth most of the hype.  The draft has, so far, produced 5 All-Stars, and a stellar group of starters with potential.- such as Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Ryan Anderson, Nicolas Batum and Serge Ibaka.  Mayo and Gallinari have underwhelmed as well, though both are being paid big dollars for their roles on their respective teams.  Even guys like JaVale McGee, JJ Hickson and Courtney Lee- drafted 18, 19 and 22- have made good money thus far, and have significant- albeit not a centerpiece- role for their teams.  Beasley stands out from the group as an underachiever.  He has had a more prosperous career than Joe Alexander (the 8th pick) and DJ Augustin (the 9th pick) but when selected number two expectations are understandably higher.  Here is how Beasley has evolved as a player (stats taken from ESPN.com):

As you can see, Beasley's numbers- statistically- haven't been terrible, highlighted by a 19.2 points per game campaign his first year in Minnesota (He was traded to reduce cap space by the Heat, so the team could assemble their big three).  Other stats on this list are scary.  His field goal percentage has dropped every year, and, consequently, so has his player efficiency.  During his highest scoring campaign, Beasley was essentially a league-average efficient player (15.54).  Last season with Phoenix, his number was only 10.91, sitting next to players like Lamar Odom, Sebastian Telfair and Marvin Williams.  His 10.91 number was good for 271st out of 344 players who qualified for the list (over 6.07 mpg via Hollinger's ESPN stats).

A trainwreck in Phoenix, Beasley has had numerous marijuana related citations, and was released despite having a significant amount of years and money left on his contract.  Today (9/12) he signed a non-guaranteed, veteran's minimum contract with the team that signed him- the Miami Heat.  For the Heat, this is a high upside signing.  He can be cut with no penalty (for a while) and, if he succeeds, he is capable of filling a bench scorer role and give their stars- especially James and Bosh- added breaks.  I give this signing a B+ for Miami though, because of the potential for locker room issues.  Given his lowly status on the team, I would be willing to bet he makes the roster and plays in a 10-12 minute per game role during the regular season for the defending champs.

Is Beasley alone?  Throughout the last decade, #2 picks haven't exactly had the best success rate in developing starter-level players.  Here is a list of the last ten #2 picks:

 The list of #2 picks is, overall, underwhelming, especially when considering some of the players drafted in the 3 picks after.  Most notably, in 2003 and 2009, each player drafted after the #2 pick has become a $10 million dollar player, many becoming All-Stars.  Outliers include Durant and Aldridge, who have outperformed the players drafted #1.  In theory, most of these players had a chance to go #1.  Derrick Williams had his supporters over Kyrie Irving.  Many people preferred Beasley to Rose.  Even Darko Milicic had big supporters.  Victor Oladipo is a player I am very high on- a had him ranked #2 in the draft- and I would be surprised to see him falter in many of the same ways others on this list have.  However, in each of those years, similar writers and fans would have said the same things about the #2 pick.

Over the last decade, the #2 pick has underwhelmed given expectations.  Beasley has obvious talent, but a low basketball IQ and off the court issues to be dealt with.  With Miami, he could carve out a nice niche as a bench scorer, and find another good contract next year.  But, his bridges are close to burnt, and it seems a long shot he will ever be more than an 8th man again in the league.  Right about now, I think the Heat (or not given how well the future has played out) would have preferred Westbrook, Love or even OJ Mayo to the pick they made in Michael Beasley.

10 Things I Think:

1.  The Beavers bounced back- albeit against an opponent they were heavily favored against in Hawaii.  Separate from an incerception (returned for a TD), Sean Mannion had another nice game, including a pair of TD throws to Brandon Cooks.  In a Pac-12 North that has looked incredibly strong (WSU over USC, UW over BSU) Oregon State needs to figure itself out and get on a winning streak heading into conference play.

2.  Three Stars of the Week

1. BYU's Offensive Line- blocked well enough to help BYU rush for 550 yards as a team 
2. Teddy Bridgewater QB/Louisville- 23/32, 397yd 4 TDs
3. Marcus Mariota QB/Oregon- 14/28 199yd 2TD, 4 rush 122yd 1TD

3.  Speaking of the Oregon offense...  Chip Kelly's Eagles looked fantastic- especially in the first half- offensively.  Lesean McCoy looks like a beast in the running game, and Vick looks capable of making decisions in the Eagles system.  Imagine how well this could look when Kelly gets "his" players.  Keep expecting high play counts and great offensive showings from Philadelphia.

4.  Oklahoma State needs to get hit HARD by penalties from the NCAA amidst allegations that the coaching staffs under Les Miles and Mike Gundy paid players, supported academic misconduct and recreational drug use, and supplied recruits with women to have sex with.  WOW!  Penalties will take too long to decide this season, but Mike Gundy and Les Miles both should be suspended by the NCAA for multiple years and face a heavy fine at a minimum.  A long term bowl ban seems appropriate as well.  This is a major issue under the current NCAA rules.  Paying players aside, the fact that coaches allowed drug use and essentially ran a prostitution ring to get recruits is reprehensible.  Here's to Oklahoma State and LSU losing BIG next week.

5.  The US Men's Soccer Team clinched a berth to the World Cup today with a 2-0 win over Mexico.  This is going to be a dangerous team, though they are far from perfect.  The back line (especially outside) has had issues in the past, and the midfield has been an issue when Michael Bradley has not been in play.  Criticism aside, this was a fantastic result, and gives the team an energy boost, and an opportunity to try out other players for the remainder of the WC Qualifiers.  If the WC was tomorrow, this is the lineup I would put out:
GK- Howard
RB- Fabian Johnson
CB- Omar Gonzalez
CB- Matt Besler
LB- DeMarcus Beasley
RCM- Mix Diskerud
CM- Michael Bradley
LCM- Landon Donovan
LW-  Clint Dempsey
RW- Eddie Johnson
ST- Jozy Altidore

6.  Chad Ford's 2014 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 came out on Monday:  (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9652326/nba-andrew-wiggins-tops-2014-mock-draft-10)

Here is how our lottery mock drafts would look side-by-side (I am using his draft order for convenience- don't get mad at me Portland fans, I think we will be a playoff team too)

Teams	Me	Chad Ford
1 Philadelphia 2 Phoenix 3 Orlando 4 Charlotte 5 Boston 6 Sacramento 7 Milwaukee 8 Utah 9 Toronto 10 LA Lakers 11 Philadelphia 12 Portland 13 Charlotte 14 Dallas	Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas Julius Randle PF/Kentucky Dante Exum PG/Australia Jabari Parker SF/Duke Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma St. Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky Joel Embiid C/Kansas Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky Dario Saric SF/Croatia Gary Harris SG/Michigan State Semaj Christon PG/Xavier James Young SF/Kentucky	Andrew Wiggins SF/Kansas Julius Randle PF/Kentucky Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma St. Dante Exum PG/Australia Jabari Parker SF/Duke Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky Chris Walker SF/Florida Dario Saric SF/Croatia Joel Embiid C/Kansas Montrezl Harrell SF/Louisville Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky Gary Harris SG/Michigan State Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia

7.  Last week in college football, I went 16-3.  For the season, I am 33-6 in picking top 25 games.  Keep holding out hope for a perfect week!

8.  NFL Power Rankings Top 5, after week one:

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Denver Broncos
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Philadelphia Eagles

Don't be surprised to see vast changes week to week.


9. FIFA President Blatter says awarding the 2022 World Cup to Qatar "may have been a mistake."  There are already talks to move that WC to winter of that year (could you imagine 110 degree soccer games?), and there were allegations of buying votes by Qatar when they initially won it.  While I think a major sports event in the Middle East is a good idea, this is a story to keep an eye on over the next year.

10.  If you haven't seen this Guiness commercial, go ahead and watch it.  Wonderful stuff- this is what true friendship looks like.

Follow on twitter @ZRey12

College Football Picks- week 2

Last week I was 17-3, and, here are my picks for the top 25 teams this week.

(2) Oregon 55 Virginia 10
(3) Ohio State 45 San Diego State 24
(4) Clemson 64 SC State 10
(5) Stanford 35 San Jose State 13
(6) South Carolina 24 (11) Georgia 18
(7) Texas A&M 52 Sam Houston State 6
(8) Louisville 48 Eastern Kentucky 9
(9) LSU 35 UAB 7
Miami (FL) 28 (12) Florida 24
(13) Oklahoma State 56 UTSA 7
(17) Michigan 42 (14) Notre Dame 28
(15) Texas 31 BYU 21
(16) Oklahoma 28 West Virginia 7
(19) Northwestern 31 Syracuse 17
(21) Wisconsin 49 Tennessee Tech 0
(22) Nebraska 42 Southern Miss 20
(23) Baylor 45 Buffalo 42
(24) TCU 35 SE Louisiana 6
(25) USC 31 Washington State 21

Tim Tebow: Uncoachable

Tim Tebow loves Jesus.  We all get it- though if Jesus himself asked Tim Tebow to switch to fullback, or tight end, or linebacker for all I care, I have reservations about whether he would do it.  Tebow has been adamant about remaining a quarterback, even though a plethora of games at the position have shown he is not capable of becoming an NFL quarterback.  He completed roughly 30% of his passes this preseason, and nearly tied the preseason leaders for getting sacked the most- though Tebow rarely played for New England.

Tebow's pundits continually show that Tebow is a "winner" after winning two national championships in college and leading an improbable playoff win over Pittsburgh in the playoffs a few years ago.   So what.  He is in a category of quarterbacks- first round picks- who are labeled "bust."  David Carr never lead the Texans to the promised land.  But he had efficient seasons where he threw more TDs than interceptions, and completed 68% of his passes in his last year as a starter.  Has Tebow come close to that?  Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn.  All first round picks, none lived up to their hyped potential.  As a QB, Tebow lies with this group- and that may be generous.

Tebow does stand apart- he is a tremendous athlete who is incredibly strong.  He is a high motor player.  None of the other quarterbacks listed above can boast Tebow's athleticism.  That said, if an NFL coach asked either of them to play tight end (I know none would be great on that list) for the benefit of the team, I don't think they would oppose.  Sure, they would resist, but if they truly cared about winning games, and believed in their coach's assessment that they would help out at the position why not do it?

For a player who is constantly praised for his unbelievable intangibles, I am disgusted.  The fact that he is unwilling to switch positions for the greater benefit of the team shows every head coach he has had in the NFL has been right to cut him.  I have to think Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick had ideas of playing Tebow at fullback or tight end- and don't get me wrong, Tebow could absolutely succeed there.  But if Tebow is not willing to help his teammates in any way possible- and it is clear that playing QB is not the answer for Tebow- then good riddance.

Denard Robinson would love to play quarterback in the NFL.  So would Brad Smith, Armanti Edwards, and Antwaan Randle El- to name a few.  All these players switched positions to ensure an NFL career and help an NFL team in any way possible.  Tebow will not, and, it is a shame.  He is showing to be uncoachable to a larger extent than his supporters will be willing to admit, and, if I were an NFL GM I wouldn't go anywhere near him.

A September Peek at the Blazers

The NBA Season officially begins next month!  I know what you're thinking already...  it is only the beginning of September, there is no need to be this excited already.  I am pumped for some Blazers basketball this season.  The team has made moves to improve, and has the definite talent on the roster to make a playoff push.  There is no "too early" time to start talking basketball.

The Blazers boast a "big three"  "fine 2.5" of LaMarcus Aldridge- our All-Star PF who has spent the summer engulfed in trade request rumors (to which he denies)- Damian Lillard- our bright up-and-coming PG who will have a game somewhere between Stephen Curry and John Wall- and _________.  That last spot should go to Nicolas Batum- our supposed top defender, and 3 man.  Batum is maddeningly passive at times, but, his play before his series of nagging injuries was very impressive.  His season this year should approach some of the better seasons Luol Deng- a former All-Star in his own right- have put together.  He scores from every spot on the court, is a good passer, and is fantastic with chase down highlight reel blocks.  If he wants to elevate his game to the next level, and become the last member of Portland's supposed "Big Three"- for lack of a better phrase- he needs to become more comfortable making plays for himself, and actually pride himself on making stops.  He is an above average defender at this point, but nothing to truly want to go to other teams' fans and boast about.  This is his year to step up- failure could result in more "retooling."

Wesley Matthews is the glue guy on this team.  A 3 and D player, Matthews was our best defender last season.  He plays with heart, and is generally a smart player on the court who has shown the ability to make big shots (See Miami highlights last season).  Matthews needs to focus this season on improving his efficiency.  He needs to avoid turning the ball over, and he needs to shoot 40% from 3.  These are reasonable and realistic goals for Matthews.

Aldridge and Lillard will lead this team.  They need support from Batum and Matthews most in order to prevent another late season collapse.  My big conspiracy theory- though most likely accurate- surrounds the team's lack of depth last year.  Terry Stotts played his starters too much; and, this decision resulted in tired bodies and nagging injuries down the stretch.  60 games through the season, this team was playing .500 basketball, and in contention for one of the last playoff spots in the West with a solid push.  Lillard is a year more experienced, but has to be a better defender- above league average- if this team is truly destined for success.  We all saw what he is capable offensively- deep three point shots, crafty ball handling, and even a few big dunks.  Offensively, he should be able to provide the same level of offense that Brandon Roy provided for this team (It is unfair to Lillard to compare the two at this point, but he is stepping into a big role as a former ROY (which are similar conditions to which Roy had after his rookie year)).  The league, according to many, has become a "Point Guard driven league."  If he can stop more opponents with his quick footwork, his evolution as a player will continue to positively progress.

Like Lillard, Blazer fans everywhere know what Aldridge is capable of.  He is a good rebounder and defender- but will never earn recognition for either.  Offensively, he is incredible in the pick and pop, and- outside of Kevin Love and Ryan Anderson- may be the best perimeter shooting big man (not counting three pointers).  He is deadly in the low post, and has a high release that is impossible to block.  The key for Aldridge this season is to STAY DOWN LOW more.  Wow.  Aldridge has strayed to the perimeter more and more each season- which is to the detriment of the team this year.  A few years ago he was among the league leaders in dunks, and saw a tremendous number of touches at the left block.  Last year under Stotts?  Not so much.  This has to change, as Portland can't solely rely on jump shooting to get them to the playoffs.  I am not saying Aldridge shouldn't be taking some outside shots.  He should be.  Between 60-70% of his shot attempts, however, should come from inside 10 feet.

Outside of those 4 players- Lillard, Matthews, Batum, and Aldridge- the rotation significantly changes in a positive manner.  JJ Hickson has been replaced by Robin Lopez and Thomas Robinson.  Luke Babbitt has been replaced by Dorell Wright.  Eric Maynor- who played well for Portland last year- signed with the Wizards, and is replaced by Mo Williams.  The team drafted combo guard CJ McCollum from Lehigh.  McCollum is a player I think will make an immediate impact with his ability to score and shoot the ball.  Lineups with Lillard and McCollum, both, should be utilized.  Remaining from last year's squad is Victor Claver, Joel Freeland and Will Barton, though all should expect to see a decrease in their roles (perhaps not Claver to the same extent).  Also returning is Meyers Leonard, the 7-footer from Illinois who impressed last year with his offensive abilities, but made viewers cringe with his post defense.  His role should stay the same, seeing between 18-20 minutes per game at the 5 spot.  Finally, we drafted an additional shooter in Allan Crabbe.

What do all these changes mean?  New team chemistry needs to be built, new relationships formed.  I don't know who will start at center.  Lopez seems like the favorite, but I am skeptical of his offensive flaws and his lack of rebounding prowess.  Leonard is the better offensive player (minus screen setting and offensive rebounding), but is not the defensive player that Lopez is.  Robinson can sure rebound, and will dunk the ball whenever possible.  That said, starting him at the 5 would induce similar problems that starting JJ Hickson at the 5 produced.  I would expect all three to see some time next to LA until cohesive bonds are formed.  Dorell Wright is a terrific shooter who can play good defense, and has the ability to play the stretch 4 spot.  In case you missed my article a few months ago (http://nbablazers.blogspot.com/2013/04/a-stretch-4-in-portland.html), LA played great with Babbitt- a mediocre stretch 4 in his own right- next to him.  Wright is a significant upgrade, and, I am excited to see the two play together to see if this trend continues.  Victor Claver is never going to be a great scorer.  He does all of the little things well though.  He is smart, will defend and rebound, and will make the hustle play.  When Batum sat out, Claver started those games not to fill Batum's production, but because he could fit in and mesh easily with the other starters.  His minutes will fluctuate this year, but don't be surprised if he makes it on the court during the end of some close games.  Williams and McCollum provide massive upgrades behind Lillard, assuring Blazer fans everywhere that Lillard will not lead the league in minutes again- a rather dubious stat to lead the league in.  Williams is terrific offensively, but is not a great defender.  Ideally, the other players around him can step up and help some.  Defensive inadequacies aside, no one can realistically question the upgrade Williams makes on this team over many of the backup PG's the team has had in recent history. 

I expect the team- at this point- to win between 42 and 50 games.  I know this is a large range- and likely the difference between the 5 and 10 spots in the playoff standings, but, until we know more about how the players will react to each other, it is too early to make a concrete prediction.  Excitement surrounds this season for good reason.  There is no reason to think the Blazers won't compete for a playoff seed.  The time has come to return.  Let the countdown to the start of the season begin!

College Football Openers and NFL's Gear Up to Start: 10 Things I Think

1.  Oregon State flat out did not show up against Eastern Washington...  on the defensive side of the ball.  Were looking at a defense that lost CB Jordan Poyer, a few DTs and a LB on the defensive core.  What in the hell happened to this defense that allowed for Eastern Washington's offensive slaughter of this defense?  Dual threat QB's have done well against the Beavers in the past 5 years, and Vernon Adams was no exception, compiling over 500 total yards of offense in the Eagles' win.  The Beaver defense made him look like a Heisman candidate (I am aware he is in the FCS- this was just to make a point.  But was he not one of the most impressive players you saw this past weekend?)  Scott Crichton was a ghost- a player widely thought of as a potential first round pick.  Offensively, I am optimistic about the season's outlook.  Sean Mannion and Brandon Cooks had great days, and look like a very potent connection come Pac-12 conference play.  Storm Woods will be dependable running the ball.  Even the offensive line- a weakness over the past few years- looked good.  All of this should be taken with a grain of salt.  EWU's defense was nothing to brag about.  The offensive repetitions will help the Beavers as they progress to teams who, theoretically, pose a bigger threat than EWU was perceived to be.  Offense won't be the issue this year- it is the defense.  Drastic adjustments in mindset- and potentially starters- need to be made.

2.  7 FCS schools beat FBS teams in their openers.  AMAZING!  I love it.  Underdogs give the sport unpredictability that increases the excitement.  How awesome would an NCAA Tournament look involving conference champions of both FBS and FCS schools look?  I know it will never happen (cross your fingers), but the sheer excitement over potential upsets would be fun to watch.  Consequently, pairing FCS schools with top 10 schools may not be ideal, but then the "playoff" idea would be portrayed anyways.  A fun idea.

3.  At Hockey games, the "Three Stars" are given to top performers in the game.  Here are my "Three Stars" for this weekend's games.

1. Vernon Adams QB/EWU (411 passing yds, 107 rushing yds, 6 total TDs)
2. Jameis Winston QB/Florida St (25/27, 356 yds, 4 TDs, 1 rushing TD)
3. Christion Jones WR/Alabama (72 yd punt return TD, 94 yd kickoff return TD, 38 yd TD catch)

4. The SEC looks strong- but not unbeatable.  Georgia couldn't get past Clemson, and they were supposed to be a premier team.  South Carolina, LSU and Florida looked good, but beatable.  Alabama looked great- and like the top team in the country- but I don't think they are completely assured of an undefeated season.  Given the lack of depth in the conference, however, the SEC will, again, put up the best records.  That said, I'm not sure you can already give the SEC the title of "Best Conference" just yet.  See below...

5.  I am optimistic about the strength of the Pac-12.  Oregon showed they still have a potent offense- albeit against Nicholls State.  Stanford didn't play.  UCLA and USC took care of business.  Washington destroyed a Boise State team that many thought would have a great season.  California put up a fight against a very good Northwestern team.  Even Washington State looked like it could beat Auburn.  This conference may be the strongest- in terms of depth- in the country.  At the same time, they could all beat up on each other, which hurts the conference in the national picture. 

6.  Johnny Manziel is obnoxious.  He is the anti-Tim Tebow (By that I mean he is a fantastic college QB with a questionable transition to the professional level, and opposite morals).  He is GREAT for TV and news.  Is there a more polarizing player in ANY sports league right now?  His antics may be repulsive to some, but he is entertaining.  I am intrigued to see the ballad of Manziel play out.

7.  This week I went 17-3.  2 ranked teams had already played, and Stanford was idle.

8.  For some NFL- the Seahawks made some intriguing cuts.  The most surprising had to be FB Michael Robinson and WR Chris Harper.  Robinson is coming off of a Pro-Bowl, and has been the lead blocker for Lynch every year in Seattle.  Pete Carroll has decided to hand the reigns over to Derrick Coleman and Spencer Ware at FB.  Call me skeptical- I think Robinson could have helped the team more in the present.  Harper is now a 49er, and we wasted our 4th round pick.  The Seahawks have a need at WR still- albeit not a major one- and I hope the loss of Harper doesn't come back to bite us.

9.  I feel bad for Matt Flynn.  For the second time in 2 years, he was brought in to be a starter, only to be beaten out for the job- this time by Terrell Pryor.  I would start Flynn if I were the Raiders, but they may be trying to achieve similar success as other teams who switched to dual threat QBs.  This trend is not going anywhere anytime soon.  QBs coming in- such as Manziel, Mariota and Bridgewater to a lesser extent- the next few drafts are all capable of running the ball.  Watch out, NFL, the landscape of QBs is changing.

10.  Not football related- but basketball.  If you ever play- or have played- pickup basketball, you will be able to relate to this video.  Relax and enjoy!

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