Here are my predictions for the biggest bowls in college football:
BCS National Title: Alabama vs. Oregon
These are the two best teams in the country. Alabama will play some tough games, but the SEC (particularly the bottom of it) is much weaker than in the past, and their schedule has become slightly watered down. They will go 12-0. Oregon plays a deeper league, but only 1 other top ten team (for now). I like Oregon (and I hate to say this as an Oregon St. alum) to run the table and appear in another national title game.
Rose Bowl: Northwestern vs. Stanford
I expect Stanford to still gain a berth to the Rose Bowl, and Northwestern (yes! Northwestern) will upset Ohio State along their way- not in a perfect season- and win the conference championship to go to the Rose Bowl. Northwestern is very underrated, and it would not surprise me to see them rise to a top 15 team throughout the course of the season. Stanford could find theirselves in the title game by beating Oregon. I think that game will be the only blemish on their schedule, and Kevin Hogan is among the most underrated QBs in the nation.
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Louisville
This would be an intriguing matchup between the two QBs I expect (at this point) to be drafted highest come May, in Teddy Bridgewater (LOU) and Tajh Boyd (CLEM). Bridgewater could lead Louisville to an 11-1 season in a sub-par Big East. He will be the #1 pick in the draft- at least that is my prediction for now. Boyd has an elite WR in Watkins who will also be a first round pick if he can stay out of trouble. The ACC is deeper than the Big East, and Clemson will have to get by Florida State to earn a spot here- and they will.
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. South Carolina
South Carolina has, perhaps, the best defense in the country outside of the state of Alabama. Clowney is a top 3 pick, and will be a menace at the next level. Underrated is the development of Connor Shaw, who will be a solid game manager, and lead South Carolina to a ten win season. Texas is playing in a weak Big 12, and returns enough starters to make the rest of the league cringe. Mack Brown's squads have not performed to "Texas standards" the last few years, but I expect a return to a marquee bowl this year.
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Fresno State
WHOAAAAA! Fresno State??? Yeah. I like Fresno's chances to be in the top 15 as a division champion, thus earning a berth to a BCS bowl game. Derek Carr is this year's Case Keenum (HOU), and will put up offensive numbers that will break many Fresno State records. If they can get past Boise- and I think they will- look for Fresno State to appear in a big bowl. I think Ohio State will have a better record than Northwestern- but lose the title game in the conference. They will still earn a berth to the Fiesta Bowl, but Urban Meyer's squad should not be as highly ranked (#2!) as they are.
Week one picks:
1 Alabama 24 Virginia Tech 17
2 Ohio State 55 Buffalo 7
3 Oregon 70 Nicholls State 0
8 Clemson 31 5 Georgia 28
7 Texas A&M 35 Rice 10
9 Louisville 24 Ohio 6
10 Florida 21 Toledo 18
11 Florida State 28 Pittsburgh 15
12 LSU 15 20 TCU 14
13 Oklahoma State 35 Mississippi State 31
14 Notre Dame 21 Temple 20
15 Texas 35 New Mexico State 3
UL Monroe 31 16 Oklahoma 30
17 Michigan 24 Central Michigan 7
18 Nebraska 42 Wyoming 20
19 Boise State 21 Washington 17
21 UCLA 35 Nevada 18
22 N'Western 35 California 21
23 Wisconsin 28 Massachusetts 3
25 Oregon State 45 Eastern Washington 6
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Ranking the Quarterbacks
Last December, I rated the top 10 quarterbacks in the league as the playoffs approached. Have any of the rankings changed? Some quarterbacks excelled towards the end of last year, new starters have emerged- including rookies- and others have faltered causing fans of the team to worry greatly (cough... cough... NY Jets). Here we go, in reverse order, starting with notable omissions, and then, number 40.
Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne- Jaguars. The Jags could not get one QB on the top 40 list- a list that guarantees that 8 backups will, at least, be on the list. Count this team as the frontrunner in the Teddy Bridgewater draft (or Clowney? Maybe Cutler could be persuaded to Jacksonville...).
Kevin Kolb- Bills. I was a big Kolb supporter when he was traded from Philadelphia. He has ultimately flopped in the league, but still has potential to play games behind EJ Manuel, especially considering the recent knee procedure Manuel had. If his concussion turns out to be non-career threatening, the Bills will be better off (Matt Leinart, seriously?).
Mike Glennon- Buccaneers. How much do you really trust Josh Freeman to make it through the season? A think Glennon could get a real shot this season, and will impress with his arm strength. He would have reliable targets, and could make coach Schiano look good for using a 3rd round pick on him.
Kellen Moore- Lions. Matthew Stafford has had injury issues in the past. Moore is accurate, and was generally mistake free when at Boise State, and has had high completion percentages in the preseason games. Given an opportunity, the Lions would be in solid hands.
Brock Osweiler- Broncos. Osweiler is huge- potentially the tallest QB in the league. He has a great arm, and is learning behind one of the best in the game. He will be the starter after Manning.
Backup Territory
40 Tarvaris Jackson- Seahawks. Jackson is a mobile backup who twice led the Seahawks to 7 win seasons, including the memorable playoff win over New Orleans. He is not a great starter in this league, but in cases of injury, he can handle the burden. Isn't that what every team hopes for out of a backup QB?
39 Nick Foles- Eagles. Like Jackson, Foles is capable of taking the reigns when needed. Given Michael Vick's past history with injuries, I would bet he plays at least 4-6 games again this year. He is decently accurate, and let's be honest- the Eagles aren't a playoff team with Vick anyways.
38 Matt Cassell- Vikings. Cassell was below average in Kansas City, but is the most competent backup Christian Ponder has ever had. He will push Ponder, and has the requisite experience to be solid in an NFC North that may be the best division in the NFL this year.
37 Ryan Fitzpatrick- Titans. Fitzpatrick was destined for a big-ish year in Buffalo, but the team was poor again, and he was released. He is a very good backup, however, and one nearly every team would want behind their primary signal caller.
36 Brandon Weeden- Browns. Weeden will be a 30 year old second year quarterback soon. He has a decent arm, but would you really feel comfortable with him as a starting QB in this league? He has a few intriguing targets in Gordon and Cameron, but he is better suited as a backup.
35 Ryan Mallett- Patriots. Learning behind Tom Brady will be great for Mallett once he gets a real opportunity. He has a cannon of an arm, and is the player I most expect to be traded next summer. Many teams who fail will want Mallett as their signal caller so they can spend their first round pick elsewhere.
34 Geno Smith- Jets. The Jets have quite the QB debacle on their hands. I think Smith will wind up being a good NFL QB- though I think the first round grade some draft experts gave him was a little much. If they truly think he offers the best chance for success they should start him- they have no one better.
33 Mark Sanchez- Jets. Sanchez is a better QB than Smith- by a miniscule amount- right now. He has the experience of 2 deep playoff runs, and is suffering most from poor self-efficacy rather than flawed QB mechanics. He needs a change of scenery, and he could wind up starting somewhere else again. I would start him over Geno Smith this year. That said- both rank outside the top 32.
32 Matt Hasselbeck- Colts. The backup for Andrew Luck could still be a starter in this league- albeit not for a great team. Luck is a budding superstar in this league, and Hasselbeck's experience offers a lot of insight for Luck. In case of injury to Luck, Hasselbeck is a very capable backup.
31 Jake Locker- Titans. I just don't have enough faith in Locker to bring them past being a 6 or 7 win team. He is mobile and with good mechanics, but he does not throw for accuracy and makes bad decisions. Under Bountygate talking head Greg Williams, he could learn enough for a bigger season. I am skeptical, and Locker could be replaced by next season.
30 Christian Ponder- Vikings. It says a lot that I place Ponder over Locker on this list. Ponder is great on short throws, but is brutal when throwing the ball over 20 yards, where he didn't have one touchdown past last year. Given the attention that will be paid to Peterson, he gets the nod here over Locker. That said, I expect Minnesota to evaluate all of their options at the QB position soon.
Almost Comfortable Starting Them
29 Terrell Pryor- Raiders- Pryer is intriguing due to the success of dual threat QBs in the NFL last year. He is very fast, and has a good arm. The Raiders receiving options aren't great, so Pryor will struggle some if he wins the job, but he shows more potential than all but one backup QB in the league- stay tuned!
28 Matt Flynn- Raiders- Flynn was acquired for the second time in hopes of having him start at QB. While it appears he still has an edge over Pryor, Dennis Allen has not yet made a decision. Flynn is very accurate with a good arm, who deserves a chance. Unfortunately- Flynn or Pryor- this Raiders team is a few years away.
27 Carson Palmer- Cardinals- Carson Palmer is past his prime, and inherits an offensive line that hasn't protected his quarterback very well. He still has a potentially elite WR in Larry Fitzgerald, and a second year player in Michael Floyd who could have a great year. Palmer has better targets this year, but his abilities have faded to the point where he only ranks 27.
26 Josh Freeman- Buccaneers- This is a make or break year for Josh Freeman- a former first round pick. If he falters, Mike Glennon is waiting in the wings. Freeman has a good arm, but has issues turning the ball over, and is not as mobile as he sometimes seems to be. The Bucs ceiling is 8 wins, and even that may not be enough for Freeman.
25 Ryan Tannehill- Dolphins- Tannehill essentially starts a higher tier of NFL QBs on this board. He has a great arm and lots of potential. He finally has a deep threat in Mike Wallace, though he will be forced to prove his abilities over and over due to a lack of running game. He will make great plays and make mistakes along the way. If he has a +8 turnover ratio, the Dolphins could win the division.
24 EJ Manuel- Bills- Manuel's first round selection shocked the world, though he has, in respect, played well in preseason. He recently had a minor knee surgery- and is out for a few more weeks- that could affect his scrambling ability. I think he will put up the best numbers for a rookie QB, and his development is key to Buffalo's future success.
23 Michael Vick- Eagles- Vick could be 10 spots too high or too low. He is a volatile player who is deadly when effective as a dual threat QB, and detrimental when ineffective. Unfortunately for Chip Kelly, he is typically ineffective, and has had issues with injuries over the past few seasons. Look for Vick to play the first 6 or 7 games before having his status- for health or performance- reevaluated.
22 Kirk Cousins- Redskins- I have Cousins rated as the best backup in the league, though he could start for many teams. The Redskins have been in good hands with Cousins in charge, and may be forced to use him again if RG3 is misused again. He is one to watch in the trade market next summer, potentially worth a first round pick.
Middle of the Road Starters
21 Sam Bradford- Rams- Sam Bradford hasn't developed the way a #1 overall pick should. He is in one word: Average. He has good traits, but none elite. He has good speed, but isn't a scrambler. He has better protection and more athletic receivers, but their depth does not resemble that of a contender. He needs to be efficient to move up on this list.
20 Cam Newton- Panthers- Newton is a monster fantasy football QB, but only ranks 20th on this list. He makes bad decisions and really does not lead his team to wins. The Panthers will be poor offensively as well, which does not help Newton's cause. He rushes better than nearly all other QBs, but needs to improve his passing accuracy especially. Do you trust his deep balls? I don't yet.
19 Andy Dalton- Bengals- This should be Andy Dalton's season to prove he belongs in a higher tier. He is fresh off a playoff berth, and is a typically mistake-free QB. That said... would you still take him over any of the other QBs below? His receiving staff is underwhelming, though he does have a few solid tight ends in Gresham and Eifert. Will he be a Rivers or a Flacco? Brees even? Sanchez? In a few months we will all have a better idea.
18 Philip Rivers- Chargers. Rivers sure looked like a franchise QB a few years ago. Did Tomlinson help with that? Rivers has not panned out for multiple playoff berths, but he has made a few Pro Bowls. If San Diego really struggles, they would draft Bridgewater. Maybe this pressure will aid his performance- for better or worse.
17 Matthew Stafford- Lions. Stafford is drafted incredibly high in fantasy leagues. Take Calvin Johnson off that team and is he still drafted in the first 50 picks? I think not. Plain and simple, the former number one pick is average. This Detroit team has had playoff talent the last few seasons, but hasn't had a breakthrough. Stafford needs to cut down on turnovers, and increase his completion percentage to make the leap to the next tier.
16 Alex Smith- Chiefs. Alex Smith takes control of a Chiefs squad that can only get better. He has an elite RB, elite WR, and a #1 pick at LT. This offense will be just fine. Alex Smith is a solid game manager who can lead a very good team deep. He doesn't need to throw 40 times a game to be effective. Just as he was handled in SF, he can be good when put in the right situations. That places him in the top half, even if only just.
Very Good Starters
15 Jay Cutler- Bears. Cutler takes heat for being apathetic. If the team went 1-15, would he care? Intangibles aside, Cutler has a fantastic arm and an elite WR in Brandon Marshall. His offensive line is better with the addition of Kyle Long, but the LT position still needs to be addressed soon. If healthy, and the team stays healthy- a big if considering the hits Cutler has taken- the Bears could return to the playoffs.
14 Matt Schaub- Texans. I may be overrating Schaub here. He is, like Alex Smith, a terrific game manager. For years, he has only had Andre Johnson to throw to deep, which would limit anyone's effectiveness. Enter DeAndre Hopkins, and the team has deep threats on both sidelines. Schaub has two terrific backs in Foster and Tate, and if turnover free for most of the season, the Texans could win the AFC. He is a dark horse for the MVP award.
13 Ben Roethlisberger- Steelers. Big Ben has his issues. His intangibles off the field have been in doubt multiple times, and he has had issues with health. When healthy, he is awesome. Roethlisberger is mobile enough to pick up first downs with his feet, and he has an exceptional head coach in Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have no excuse not to return to the playoffs this year.
12 Tono Romo- Cowboys. Romo is a very good QB who is capable of leading playoff runs. The pressure has been turned up high in Dallas over the last few years, and, unfortunately, this won't be Dallas' year. The win/loss record will not be Romo's fault, as he has an elite weapon in Bryant at WR, and an elite TE in Witten. The defense is a huge issue, and, unless Romo is willing to play LB, the team is going to struggle.
11 Robert Griffin III- Redskins. I want to put RG3 in the next tier. I really do. He is the fastest QB in the league, and is accurate throwing the ball. My biggest issue is his health. Can the Redskins count on him for this whole season? To be considered near-elite, he has to be durable and lead the Redskins to another playoff berth. Last year was awesome, and if he can do it again, I'll be convinced.
10 Joe Flacco- Ravens. Supporters of Flacco would ask me what more he has to do. He just won a Super Bowl!! When I see Flacco, I see a QB who wins games. He has been to the playoffs every year, and is a top 10 QB. Statistically, he throws for just under 4000 yards this year again, and his receiving corps are not what they were last year. Torrey Smith and Ray Rice are his only targets that received major looks last year that return. I am not opposed to putting Flacco in the near-elite tier if you think he belongs there, but I think the Ravens would sure trade Flacco for any of the next 5 QBs on this list.
Near Elite QBs
9 Colin Kaepernick- 49ers. Kaepernick has a case as the best athlete at the QB position in the NFL. His athleticism and body measurements are phenomenal. He is a good passer as well, though I am excited to see him in action for a full season. When he throws 20-25 attempts per game, the Niners are at their best. Look for lots of read-option sets that give him an option to throw as well.
8 Eli Manning- Giants. Manning reminds me a lot of Flacco, though he has two Super Bowls to his name. Manning's biggest issue is turning the ball over. His interception numbers have fallen, though part of that can be attributed to throwing the ball closer. He threw for 1000 less yards last year than in 2011. The nature of his progression has come with awareness improvements more than physical change. If Manning can lead a deep playoff run again, he could find himself in the next category. That said, if you had to pick Manning or Matt Ryan for the next 3 years, who would you take? I'd take Ryan.
7 Andrew Luck- Colts. Luck is going to be #1 on this list in 3-5 years. Guaranteed. He looks like a superstar. To get there, he has to cut down on the turnovers- a statline that will only get better as he matures in the NFL. His throwing mechanics are elite, and he has the ability to rush for TD's (5 last year) as well. Luck should lead the Colts to another playoff berth this year.
6 Russell Wilson- Seahawks. Russell Wilson defied odds as a sub-6-foot QB who has reached an enormous level of success. He is the best dual-threat QB in the league, and throws an exceptional deep ball to supplement his short game. His WR corps are somewhat shaky after the injury to Percy Harvin, though he reached similar success with underwhelming receivers last year. Maybe Sidney Rice returns to form?
5 Matt Ryan- Falcons. Matty Ice is a great season away from being declared elite on this blog. He throws all over the field with accuracy, has made continual playoff berths, and has the statistics to back up this ranking (4700, 32/14). If he can win a few playoff games, there isn't much to set him apart from Drew Brees. This could be Atlanta's year, but only if Matt Ryan plays at the elite level he is capable of.
Elite QBs
4 Drew Brees- Saints. Brees is the last QB I include in this elite tier, though the ones before him are close. Brees can sling the ball all over the field, and has athletic receivers to hook up with. His running game is lacking, and the pressure is on him to return to the playoffs. I expect a 4500 yard season at least, and 10 wins. New Orleans should be relevant this year.
3 Peyton Manning- Broncos. Manning, like Brady next, should be past his prime. In a new system, with as good a receiving core as he has had, why should we expect a down year from Manning. Last night he threw 240 yards on 34 pass attempts in the FIRST HALF! The Broncos trust Manning's game management, and he will lead the team to another playoff berth. Good for Elway.
2 Tom Brady- Patriots. I worry about Brady this year. His receiving options are as limited as they ever have been. Kenbrell Thompson, and undrafted rookie, could lead the team in yards. Julian Edelman could potentially step in as Wes Welker's replacement. His running game is better than in the past, which gives him something to lean on. Brady is aging, but still elite. Last time we counted out Brady due to shoddy receiving Randy Moss and Welker broke out. I predicted a down year for New England, and Brady probably makes me eat crow.
1 Aaron Rodgers- Packers. Rodgers is the best QB in the game right now. Period. He has an elite weapon in Randall Cobb, and trusted targets in Jones and Nelson. He finally has a running back to hand the ball to, and some of the pressure he has faced in the last few seasons will be alleviated. He is accurate and throws the deep ball well. Think of any player in the league. Anyone. I can't think of one player I would trade Aaron Rodgers for, and that makes him number 1.
Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne- Jaguars. The Jags could not get one QB on the top 40 list- a list that guarantees that 8 backups will, at least, be on the list. Count this team as the frontrunner in the Teddy Bridgewater draft (or Clowney? Maybe Cutler could be persuaded to Jacksonville...).
Kevin Kolb- Bills. I was a big Kolb supporter when he was traded from Philadelphia. He has ultimately flopped in the league, but still has potential to play games behind EJ Manuel, especially considering the recent knee procedure Manuel had. If his concussion turns out to be non-career threatening, the Bills will be better off (Matt Leinart, seriously?).
Mike Glennon- Buccaneers. How much do you really trust Josh Freeman to make it through the season? A think Glennon could get a real shot this season, and will impress with his arm strength. He would have reliable targets, and could make coach Schiano look good for using a 3rd round pick on him.
Kellen Moore- Lions. Matthew Stafford has had injury issues in the past. Moore is accurate, and was generally mistake free when at Boise State, and has had high completion percentages in the preseason games. Given an opportunity, the Lions would be in solid hands.
Brock Osweiler- Broncos. Osweiler is huge- potentially the tallest QB in the league. He has a great arm, and is learning behind one of the best in the game. He will be the starter after Manning.
Backup Territory
40 Tarvaris Jackson- Seahawks. Jackson is a mobile backup who twice led the Seahawks to 7 win seasons, including the memorable playoff win over New Orleans. He is not a great starter in this league, but in cases of injury, he can handle the burden. Isn't that what every team hopes for out of a backup QB?
39 Nick Foles- Eagles. Like Jackson, Foles is capable of taking the reigns when needed. Given Michael Vick's past history with injuries, I would bet he plays at least 4-6 games again this year. He is decently accurate, and let's be honest- the Eagles aren't a playoff team with Vick anyways.
38 Matt Cassell- Vikings. Cassell was below average in Kansas City, but is the most competent backup Christian Ponder has ever had. He will push Ponder, and has the requisite experience to be solid in an NFC North that may be the best division in the NFL this year.
37 Ryan Fitzpatrick- Titans. Fitzpatrick was destined for a big-ish year in Buffalo, but the team was poor again, and he was released. He is a very good backup, however, and one nearly every team would want behind their primary signal caller.
36 Brandon Weeden- Browns. Weeden will be a 30 year old second year quarterback soon. He has a decent arm, but would you really feel comfortable with him as a starting QB in this league? He has a few intriguing targets in Gordon and Cameron, but he is better suited as a backup.
35 Ryan Mallett- Patriots. Learning behind Tom Brady will be great for Mallett once he gets a real opportunity. He has a cannon of an arm, and is the player I most expect to be traded next summer. Many teams who fail will want Mallett as their signal caller so they can spend their first round pick elsewhere.
34 Geno Smith- Jets. The Jets have quite the QB debacle on their hands. I think Smith will wind up being a good NFL QB- though I think the first round grade some draft experts gave him was a little much. If they truly think he offers the best chance for success they should start him- they have no one better.
33 Mark Sanchez- Jets. Sanchez is a better QB than Smith- by a miniscule amount- right now. He has the experience of 2 deep playoff runs, and is suffering most from poor self-efficacy rather than flawed QB mechanics. He needs a change of scenery, and he could wind up starting somewhere else again. I would start him over Geno Smith this year. That said- both rank outside the top 32.
32 Matt Hasselbeck- Colts. The backup for Andrew Luck could still be a starter in this league- albeit not for a great team. Luck is a budding superstar in this league, and Hasselbeck's experience offers a lot of insight for Luck. In case of injury to Luck, Hasselbeck is a very capable backup.
31 Jake Locker- Titans. I just don't have enough faith in Locker to bring them past being a 6 or 7 win team. He is mobile and with good mechanics, but he does not throw for accuracy and makes bad decisions. Under Bountygate talking head Greg Williams, he could learn enough for a bigger season. I am skeptical, and Locker could be replaced by next season.
30 Christian Ponder- Vikings. It says a lot that I place Ponder over Locker on this list. Ponder is great on short throws, but is brutal when throwing the ball over 20 yards, where he didn't have one touchdown past last year. Given the attention that will be paid to Peterson, he gets the nod here over Locker. That said, I expect Minnesota to evaluate all of their options at the QB position soon.
Almost Comfortable Starting Them
29 Terrell Pryor- Raiders- Pryer is intriguing due to the success of dual threat QBs in the NFL last year. He is very fast, and has a good arm. The Raiders receiving options aren't great, so Pryor will struggle some if he wins the job, but he shows more potential than all but one backup QB in the league- stay tuned!
28 Matt Flynn- Raiders- Flynn was acquired for the second time in hopes of having him start at QB. While it appears he still has an edge over Pryor, Dennis Allen has not yet made a decision. Flynn is very accurate with a good arm, who deserves a chance. Unfortunately- Flynn or Pryor- this Raiders team is a few years away.
27 Carson Palmer- Cardinals- Carson Palmer is past his prime, and inherits an offensive line that hasn't protected his quarterback very well. He still has a potentially elite WR in Larry Fitzgerald, and a second year player in Michael Floyd who could have a great year. Palmer has better targets this year, but his abilities have faded to the point where he only ranks 27.
26 Josh Freeman- Buccaneers- This is a make or break year for Josh Freeman- a former first round pick. If he falters, Mike Glennon is waiting in the wings. Freeman has a good arm, but has issues turning the ball over, and is not as mobile as he sometimes seems to be. The Bucs ceiling is 8 wins, and even that may not be enough for Freeman.
25 Ryan Tannehill- Dolphins- Tannehill essentially starts a higher tier of NFL QBs on this board. He has a great arm and lots of potential. He finally has a deep threat in Mike Wallace, though he will be forced to prove his abilities over and over due to a lack of running game. He will make great plays and make mistakes along the way. If he has a +8 turnover ratio, the Dolphins could win the division.
24 EJ Manuel- Bills- Manuel's first round selection shocked the world, though he has, in respect, played well in preseason. He recently had a minor knee surgery- and is out for a few more weeks- that could affect his scrambling ability. I think he will put up the best numbers for a rookie QB, and his development is key to Buffalo's future success.
23 Michael Vick- Eagles- Vick could be 10 spots too high or too low. He is a volatile player who is deadly when effective as a dual threat QB, and detrimental when ineffective. Unfortunately for Chip Kelly, he is typically ineffective, and has had issues with injuries over the past few seasons. Look for Vick to play the first 6 or 7 games before having his status- for health or performance- reevaluated.
22 Kirk Cousins- Redskins- I have Cousins rated as the best backup in the league, though he could start for many teams. The Redskins have been in good hands with Cousins in charge, and may be forced to use him again if RG3 is misused again. He is one to watch in the trade market next summer, potentially worth a first round pick.
Middle of the Road Starters
21 Sam Bradford- Rams- Sam Bradford hasn't developed the way a #1 overall pick should. He is in one word: Average. He has good traits, but none elite. He has good speed, but isn't a scrambler. He has better protection and more athletic receivers, but their depth does not resemble that of a contender. He needs to be efficient to move up on this list.
20 Cam Newton- Panthers- Newton is a monster fantasy football QB, but only ranks 20th on this list. He makes bad decisions and really does not lead his team to wins. The Panthers will be poor offensively as well, which does not help Newton's cause. He rushes better than nearly all other QBs, but needs to improve his passing accuracy especially. Do you trust his deep balls? I don't yet.
19 Andy Dalton- Bengals- This should be Andy Dalton's season to prove he belongs in a higher tier. He is fresh off a playoff berth, and is a typically mistake-free QB. That said... would you still take him over any of the other QBs below? His receiving staff is underwhelming, though he does have a few solid tight ends in Gresham and Eifert. Will he be a Rivers or a Flacco? Brees even? Sanchez? In a few months we will all have a better idea.
18 Philip Rivers- Chargers. Rivers sure looked like a franchise QB a few years ago. Did Tomlinson help with that? Rivers has not panned out for multiple playoff berths, but he has made a few Pro Bowls. If San Diego really struggles, they would draft Bridgewater. Maybe this pressure will aid his performance- for better or worse.
17 Matthew Stafford- Lions. Stafford is drafted incredibly high in fantasy leagues. Take Calvin Johnson off that team and is he still drafted in the first 50 picks? I think not. Plain and simple, the former number one pick is average. This Detroit team has had playoff talent the last few seasons, but hasn't had a breakthrough. Stafford needs to cut down on turnovers, and increase his completion percentage to make the leap to the next tier.
16 Alex Smith- Chiefs. Alex Smith takes control of a Chiefs squad that can only get better. He has an elite RB, elite WR, and a #1 pick at LT. This offense will be just fine. Alex Smith is a solid game manager who can lead a very good team deep. He doesn't need to throw 40 times a game to be effective. Just as he was handled in SF, he can be good when put in the right situations. That places him in the top half, even if only just.
Very Good Starters
15 Jay Cutler- Bears. Cutler takes heat for being apathetic. If the team went 1-15, would he care? Intangibles aside, Cutler has a fantastic arm and an elite WR in Brandon Marshall. His offensive line is better with the addition of Kyle Long, but the LT position still needs to be addressed soon. If healthy, and the team stays healthy- a big if considering the hits Cutler has taken- the Bears could return to the playoffs.
14 Matt Schaub- Texans. I may be overrating Schaub here. He is, like Alex Smith, a terrific game manager. For years, he has only had Andre Johnson to throw to deep, which would limit anyone's effectiveness. Enter DeAndre Hopkins, and the team has deep threats on both sidelines. Schaub has two terrific backs in Foster and Tate, and if turnover free for most of the season, the Texans could win the AFC. He is a dark horse for the MVP award.
13 Ben Roethlisberger- Steelers. Big Ben has his issues. His intangibles off the field have been in doubt multiple times, and he has had issues with health. When healthy, he is awesome. Roethlisberger is mobile enough to pick up first downs with his feet, and he has an exceptional head coach in Mike Tomlin. The Steelers have no excuse not to return to the playoffs this year.
12 Tono Romo- Cowboys. Romo is a very good QB who is capable of leading playoff runs. The pressure has been turned up high in Dallas over the last few years, and, unfortunately, this won't be Dallas' year. The win/loss record will not be Romo's fault, as he has an elite weapon in Bryant at WR, and an elite TE in Witten. The defense is a huge issue, and, unless Romo is willing to play LB, the team is going to struggle.
11 Robert Griffin III- Redskins. I want to put RG3 in the next tier. I really do. He is the fastest QB in the league, and is accurate throwing the ball. My biggest issue is his health. Can the Redskins count on him for this whole season? To be considered near-elite, he has to be durable and lead the Redskins to another playoff berth. Last year was awesome, and if he can do it again, I'll be convinced.
10 Joe Flacco- Ravens. Supporters of Flacco would ask me what more he has to do. He just won a Super Bowl!! When I see Flacco, I see a QB who wins games. He has been to the playoffs every year, and is a top 10 QB. Statistically, he throws for just under 4000 yards this year again, and his receiving corps are not what they were last year. Torrey Smith and Ray Rice are his only targets that received major looks last year that return. I am not opposed to putting Flacco in the near-elite tier if you think he belongs there, but I think the Ravens would sure trade Flacco for any of the next 5 QBs on this list.
Near Elite QBs
9 Colin Kaepernick- 49ers. Kaepernick has a case as the best athlete at the QB position in the NFL. His athleticism and body measurements are phenomenal. He is a good passer as well, though I am excited to see him in action for a full season. When he throws 20-25 attempts per game, the Niners are at their best. Look for lots of read-option sets that give him an option to throw as well.
8 Eli Manning- Giants. Manning reminds me a lot of Flacco, though he has two Super Bowls to his name. Manning's biggest issue is turning the ball over. His interception numbers have fallen, though part of that can be attributed to throwing the ball closer. He threw for 1000 less yards last year than in 2011. The nature of his progression has come with awareness improvements more than physical change. If Manning can lead a deep playoff run again, he could find himself in the next category. That said, if you had to pick Manning or Matt Ryan for the next 3 years, who would you take? I'd take Ryan.
7 Andrew Luck- Colts. Luck is going to be #1 on this list in 3-5 years. Guaranteed. He looks like a superstar. To get there, he has to cut down on the turnovers- a statline that will only get better as he matures in the NFL. His throwing mechanics are elite, and he has the ability to rush for TD's (5 last year) as well. Luck should lead the Colts to another playoff berth this year.
6 Russell Wilson- Seahawks. Russell Wilson defied odds as a sub-6-foot QB who has reached an enormous level of success. He is the best dual-threat QB in the league, and throws an exceptional deep ball to supplement his short game. His WR corps are somewhat shaky after the injury to Percy Harvin, though he reached similar success with underwhelming receivers last year. Maybe Sidney Rice returns to form?
5 Matt Ryan- Falcons. Matty Ice is a great season away from being declared elite on this blog. He throws all over the field with accuracy, has made continual playoff berths, and has the statistics to back up this ranking (4700, 32/14). If he can win a few playoff games, there isn't much to set him apart from Drew Brees. This could be Atlanta's year, but only if Matt Ryan plays at the elite level he is capable of.
Elite QBs
4 Drew Brees- Saints. Brees is the last QB I include in this elite tier, though the ones before him are close. Brees can sling the ball all over the field, and has athletic receivers to hook up with. His running game is lacking, and the pressure is on him to return to the playoffs. I expect a 4500 yard season at least, and 10 wins. New Orleans should be relevant this year.
3 Peyton Manning- Broncos. Manning, like Brady next, should be past his prime. In a new system, with as good a receiving core as he has had, why should we expect a down year from Manning. Last night he threw 240 yards on 34 pass attempts in the FIRST HALF! The Broncos trust Manning's game management, and he will lead the team to another playoff berth. Good for Elway.
2 Tom Brady- Patriots. I worry about Brady this year. His receiving options are as limited as they ever have been. Kenbrell Thompson, and undrafted rookie, could lead the team in yards. Julian Edelman could potentially step in as Wes Welker's replacement. His running game is better than in the past, which gives him something to lean on. Brady is aging, but still elite. Last time we counted out Brady due to shoddy receiving Randy Moss and Welker broke out. I predicted a down year for New England, and Brady probably makes me eat crow.
1 Aaron Rodgers- Packers. Rodgers is the best QB in the game right now. Period. He has an elite weapon in Randall Cobb, and trusted targets in Jones and Nelson. He finally has a running back to hand the ball to, and some of the pressure he has faced in the last few seasons will be alleviated. He is accurate and throws the deep ball well. Think of any player in the league. Anyone. I can't think of one player I would trade Aaron Rodgers for, and that makes him number 1.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Looking back on the 2012 NBA Draft
The 2012 NBA Draft was approximately 15 months ago. Football season is beginning, and NBA players will soon be in full swing within their respective franchises. Here is an analysis on the players I appear to have hit on, missed on, and others who I still need to see more from.
Starting with the positives, here are the players I hit on:
-Anthony Davis (My rank 1, drafted 1)- OK, I understand he was the no-brainer to go number one, and is widely thought (myself included) to have a very bright future filled with multiple all-star berths. Glad I didn't mess this one up!
-Damian Lillard (My rank 5, drafted 6)- Boom! The Blazers got their guy- and the one I advocated for the team to draft- and he has looked to be a future all-star, as his grade of 84 indicates my prediction he would. If he improves his defense to at least the 60th percentile of starting PGs, nothing will hold him back from greatness. And to think: Some experts rated him as a late lottery pick instead of a top 5 pick.
-Andre Drummond (My rank 7, drafted 9)- In ways, I think I underrated Drummond by rating him 7th on my board. However, considering the fact he was drafted 9th, I can count this is a victory. He looks like a potential Dwight Howard-esque athlete at the center position, and has the appearance of a very successful double double center. He will make an all-star appearance at some point (Grade of 81 on draft day), but his mindset needs to grow if he is going to become a centerpiece.
Miss:
-Moe Harkless (My rank 31, drafted 15)- Harkless looks like a great building block for the Magic, though I hope Tobias Harris' presence does not limit his growth. I saw a player who was too raw to compete initially, especially offensively, which resulted in my rating him 31 (the first spot outside the first round). When comparing him to many of the other players I rated ahead of him, it is clear I rated him too low.
- Scott Machado (My rank 23, undrafted FA)- Machado has bounced around the league, and was cut by Golden State a few weeks ago. I really thought Machado could be a definite rotation player at the minimum! I thought he had the potential of a fringe starter, which is why I gave him a rating in the 20s. The teams in the league have been very wary of him, and he is now likely heading to the D-League or Europe
Need to see more:
- Thomas Robinson (my rank 3, drafted 5)- I was high on Robinson. He was a midrange game from becoming a double double player, in my opinion, and I claimed he was the most NBA ready player in the draft. Oops. He didn't fit in Sacramento, and Houston wasn't truly trying to hold onto him. Enter Portland, where Robinson will play rotation minutes behind Aldridge and Lopez (who let's be honest about- I am quite skeptical). Given the uncertainty surrounding Aldridge's future, Robinson could still breakout and prove he was worth a top 5 pick.
- Perry Jones III (my rank 10, drafted 28)- Jones slipped on draft day due to concerns about his knee. Based off of talent, he could play the 3 or 4 very well, especially if he adds a 3 point jump shot. In OKC, he was stuck on the end of the bench, and did not get many minutes to prove he belonged. Given the opportunity, I think Jones III would show flashes of brilliance that led me to rank him as a top 10 candidate. I need to see more...
- Austin Rivers (my rank 12, drafted 10)- Rivers had a maddeningly inefficient year, but should have learned a lot (fingers crossed)! His shot selection should be better, and he ideally worked enough on his defense to stay in an improved Pelican rotation. The ice beneath him is thinner, and Rivers needs to impress to avoid going into the "miss" category.
Other players who had a lukewarm rookie year, but who I fully expect to live up to their draft (and rank!) position:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (My rank 2, drafted 2)
Brad Beal (My rank 4, drafted 3)
Harrison Barnes (My rank 6, drafted 7)
Tony Wroten (My rank 15, drafted 25) *Edit- Wroten was just traded to the 76ers! He should play more in Philly, and show he was worth a mid-first round grade.
Draymond Green (My rank 22, drafted 35)
Starting with the positives, here are the players I hit on:
-Anthony Davis (My rank 1, drafted 1)- OK, I understand he was the no-brainer to go number one, and is widely thought (myself included) to have a very bright future filled with multiple all-star berths. Glad I didn't mess this one up!
-Damian Lillard (My rank 5, drafted 6)- Boom! The Blazers got their guy- and the one I advocated for the team to draft- and he has looked to be a future all-star, as his grade of 84 indicates my prediction he would. If he improves his defense to at least the 60th percentile of starting PGs, nothing will hold him back from greatness. And to think: Some experts rated him as a late lottery pick instead of a top 5 pick.
-Andre Drummond (My rank 7, drafted 9)- In ways, I think I underrated Drummond by rating him 7th on my board. However, considering the fact he was drafted 9th, I can count this is a victory. He looks like a potential Dwight Howard-esque athlete at the center position, and has the appearance of a very successful double double center. He will make an all-star appearance at some point (Grade of 81 on draft day), but his mindset needs to grow if he is going to become a centerpiece.
Miss:
-Moe Harkless (My rank 31, drafted 15)- Harkless looks like a great building block for the Magic, though I hope Tobias Harris' presence does not limit his growth. I saw a player who was too raw to compete initially, especially offensively, which resulted in my rating him 31 (the first spot outside the first round). When comparing him to many of the other players I rated ahead of him, it is clear I rated him too low.
- Scott Machado (My rank 23, undrafted FA)- Machado has bounced around the league, and was cut by Golden State a few weeks ago. I really thought Machado could be a definite rotation player at the minimum! I thought he had the potential of a fringe starter, which is why I gave him a rating in the 20s. The teams in the league have been very wary of him, and he is now likely heading to the D-League or Europe
Need to see more:
- Thomas Robinson (my rank 3, drafted 5)- I was high on Robinson. He was a midrange game from becoming a double double player, in my opinion, and I claimed he was the most NBA ready player in the draft. Oops. He didn't fit in Sacramento, and Houston wasn't truly trying to hold onto him. Enter Portland, where Robinson will play rotation minutes behind Aldridge and Lopez (who let's be honest about- I am quite skeptical). Given the uncertainty surrounding Aldridge's future, Robinson could still breakout and prove he was worth a top 5 pick.
- Perry Jones III (my rank 10, drafted 28)- Jones slipped on draft day due to concerns about his knee. Based off of talent, he could play the 3 or 4 very well, especially if he adds a 3 point jump shot. In OKC, he was stuck on the end of the bench, and did not get many minutes to prove he belonged. Given the opportunity, I think Jones III would show flashes of brilliance that led me to rank him as a top 10 candidate. I need to see more...
- Austin Rivers (my rank 12, drafted 10)- Rivers had a maddeningly inefficient year, but should have learned a lot (fingers crossed)! His shot selection should be better, and he ideally worked enough on his defense to stay in an improved Pelican rotation. The ice beneath him is thinner, and Rivers needs to impress to avoid going into the "miss" category.
Other players who had a lukewarm rookie year, but who I fully expect to live up to their draft (and rank!) position:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (My rank 2, drafted 2)
Brad Beal (My rank 4, drafted 3)
Harrison Barnes (My rank 6, drafted 7)
Tony Wroten (My rank 15, drafted 25) *Edit- Wroten was just traded to the 76ers! He should play more in Philly, and show he was worth a mid-first round grade.
Draymond Green (My rank 22, drafted 35)
Monday, August 19, 2013
Alex Rodriguez
A-Roid. A-Fraud. These names were chanted down upon him at Fenway Park- and I love it. Not because of the performance enhancing ties he has to biogenesis- reprehensible in the face of the game- but because of the thrilling excitement of the rivalry between the Red Sox and Yankees. On his first pitch the other night, A-Rod was thrown behind, took two pitches inside, before being hit by a pitch. Later in the game, he hit a monstrous home run to center field. Fenway's spirit was alive, and it is good for the sport.
In this game, Ryan Dempster should have been ejected. If he had hit Rodriguez on the first pitch, one could make an argument that an ejection would not be warranted. However, on the 4th pitch he hit Rodriguez, and given the circumstances surrounding the prior few pitches, he should have been tossed. Girardi was right to be upset.
Alex Rodriguez is going to be suspended for a long time. Because he can play during his appeal, he has been the X-Factor for the Yankees. Given the miserable production they had seen from their 3rd baseman, A-Rod puts the team right back in the thick of the playoff hunt. I don't condone what A-Rod did- he should be suspended for a long time (I suggested 162 games earlier this month)- but Yankee fans are going to start cheering because he is leading to wins. Like it or not, fans care more about winning than character many times. They won't miss A-Rod next year if he is out, but they will cheer him on if he guides them to a playoff berth that seemed unfathomable a few weeks ago. Like the Jail Blazers in Portland in the early 2000s, the fans hated the team. But the team was winning, and the crowd cheered.
The rivalry being hot is good for baseball. This is a basketball centered blog, and I never imagined I'd be writing about baseball right now. It's a big story, and brings viewers to watch more of the game. The MLB is hurting with their PED standards, but making lots of money in the process.
In this game, Ryan Dempster should have been ejected. If he had hit Rodriguez on the first pitch, one could make an argument that an ejection would not be warranted. However, on the 4th pitch he hit Rodriguez, and given the circumstances surrounding the prior few pitches, he should have been tossed. Girardi was right to be upset.
Alex Rodriguez is going to be suspended for a long time. Because he can play during his appeal, he has been the X-Factor for the Yankees. Given the miserable production they had seen from their 3rd baseman, A-Rod puts the team right back in the thick of the playoff hunt. I don't condone what A-Rod did- he should be suspended for a long time (I suggested 162 games earlier this month)- but Yankee fans are going to start cheering because he is leading to wins. Like it or not, fans care more about winning than character many times. They won't miss A-Rod next year if he is out, but they will cheer him on if he guides them to a playoff berth that seemed unfathomable a few weeks ago. Like the Jail Blazers in Portland in the early 2000s, the fans hated the team. But the team was winning, and the crowd cheered.
The rivalry being hot is good for baseball. This is a basketball centered blog, and I never imagined I'd be writing about baseball right now. It's a big story, and brings viewers to watch more of the game. The MLB is hurting with their PED standards, but making lots of money in the process.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Johnny Manziel
My oh my! Every year collegiate players are investigated by the NCAA for breaking rules, or having been recruited illegally. Johnny Football- the defending Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from Texas A&M- is in hot water with the NCAA after holding multiple autograph sessions with memorabilia dealers for money. One of the big rules in college sports involves not profiting off of yourself- a rule Forrest Gump would be smart enough not to break. Manziel has broken this NCAA rule, and is likely lost for the season. Does anyone feel bad?
I am vehemently opposed to college athletes being paid. As Adam Schein said on his radio show on August 12, "It opens Pandora's Box about who to pay, how much to pay them, and if each gender/sport is paid." College athletes already get a full tuition- often including living and eating expenses. Do they need to be paid? Absolutely not.
Should Manziel be suspended by the NCAA? Absolutely- he broke a rule that is obvious enough not to break. The rule, however, is rotten. The NCAA profits off of players' likeness all the time- in video games, and on jersey sales to name a few (The NCAA took jerseys off of their website, but it doesn't mean much). Why shouldn't Manziel? If he is making money off of his autograph, I have no problems with it. If someone wanted the autograph of the 3rd string long snapper- and offered him a sizeable sum- he should be able to keep the money. He is not being paid by the school, thus avoiding the issue of paying college athletes. Is it rotten for memorabilia dealers to seek out college athletes? Probably. But the rule stinks- and Manziel should not be subjected to a punishment for his faux pas. The rule, however- rotten as it may be- is in place, and Manziel was incredibly foolish to have broken it. It's a shame too. Lots of talent will be wasted this season in Aggieland.
I am vehemently opposed to college athletes being paid. As Adam Schein said on his radio show on August 12, "It opens Pandora's Box about who to pay, how much to pay them, and if each gender/sport is paid." College athletes already get a full tuition- often including living and eating expenses. Do they need to be paid? Absolutely not.
Should Manziel be suspended by the NCAA? Absolutely- he broke a rule that is obvious enough not to break. The rule, however, is rotten. The NCAA profits off of players' likeness all the time- in video games, and on jersey sales to name a few (The NCAA took jerseys off of their website, but it doesn't mean much). Why shouldn't Manziel? If he is making money off of his autograph, I have no problems with it. If someone wanted the autograph of the 3rd string long snapper- and offered him a sizeable sum- he should be able to keep the money. He is not being paid by the school, thus avoiding the issue of paying college athletes. Is it rotten for memorabilia dealers to seek out college athletes? Probably. But the rule stinks- and Manziel should not be subjected to a punishment for his faux pas. The rule, however- rotten as it may be- is in place, and Manziel was incredibly foolish to have broken it. It's a shame too. Lots of talent will be wasted this season in Aggieland.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
NFL Preview
Here are my predictions of how the NFL standings and awards are going to look:
NFC West
Seattle 11-5*
San Francisco 11-5*
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 6-10
Analysis: Seattle and San Francisco continue to lead the way in this division. While St. Louis and Arizona have both improved, teams led by Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer cannot help teams make the leap to the next level. Look for Russell Wilson to have a big, and efficient, year, even in the absence of Percy Harvin. Kaepernick will be great as well, but he needs production out of his running backs to take off some of the pressure (Lynch will do the same in SEA). Gore and LaMichael James are poised for very good years. Tavon Austin finally gives the Rams a game changer, but his college teammate Stedman Bailey is one to watch as well. In the end, I think Russell Wilson will lead the 'Hawks far, and Kaepernick/Gore will keep the 'Niners extraordinarily relevant.
NFC East
NY Giants 11-5*
Washington 10-6**
Dallas 6-10
Philadelphia 4-12
Analysis: The Giants lead the way in this division, led by Eli Manning. He has two elite WR options in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, and an offensive line that is among the best in the division. Defensively, the team will be good enough to win the division. Washington will make a return to the playoffs if Griffin has a repeat season, but I am skeptical that he will stay healthy the entire time. Kirk Cousins is among the best backups in the league, but I don't think he will push a team into playoff contention just yet. Dallas and Philadelphia are rebuilding, even if Jerry Jones refuses to admit it. He sees playoffs, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle for the team everyone loves to hate. Chip Kelly's offense will prove potent, but he does not have enough pieces all around to have a successful season just yet.
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5*
Chicago 9-7
Minnesota 8-8
Detroit 8-8
Analysis: In what may be the toughest division this year, Green Bay has the slight edge for now. They have potent offensive players at every position, though the offensive line will have shaky moments. Their balanced offensive attack can best the one dimensional Detroit and Minnesota attacks. Chicago may be the best rival to win the division, assuming the team stays healthy. The offensive line in Chicago is even worse than the one in Green Bay. I expect lots of high scoring outings in this division, but Aaron Rodgers should lead his team to the playoffs yet again.
NFC South
Atlanta 11-5*
New Orleans 10-6**
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 6-10
Analysis: Matt Ryan has taken the step into being a top 5 QB for now (Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees), and has the best protection in the division and, perhaps, the best defense. New Orleans should rebound from their down year- clouded by Bountygate- to another wild card berth. Brees is healthy, and should throw for 5000 yards again. Tampa Bay is improving, but is only an 8-8 team under Josh Freeman. Darrell Revis could be a defensive player of the year candidate, and bolsters a strong secondary in Tampa. I'm not saying Mike Glennon will end the season as the starter in Tampa- it is too big of a stretch, barring injury- but he could be at the start of next season. Carolina has a stat stuffer at QB in Cam Newton, but this team is not built to win just yet. Luke Kuechly will have a monster year, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle.
AFC East
Miami 9-7*
New England 8-8
Buffalo 5-11
NY Jets 4-12
Analysis: WOW! Yes, the Dolphins are going to win the AFC East. This is the weakest division in the NFL, as the Jets are in a state of chaos, Buffalo is rebuilding, and the Patriots offense is aging and in shambles. Miami upgraded their pass rush by drafting Deon Jordan, added a deep threat in Mike Wallace, and Ryan Tannehill should be another season improved. I am not a huge Tannehill fan, but the divisions weakness this year sets up nicely for his success. EJ Manuel could be a rookie of the year candidate to watch for in Buffalo, but I expect year 2 under Doug Marrone to go better. Who is Tom Brady supposed to throw to in this division? His slot man now catches balls from Peyton Manning, his two top tight ends are either injured or defending murder charges, and his top replacement is as injury prone as they come. Look for Julian Edelman to catch 75 passes, and Tim Tebow- YES, TIM TEBOW- to see time at TE, especially around the goal line. Ultimately, Tom Brady will not be heading to the playoffs this year.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 11-5*
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 5-11
Analysis: Another strong division- to no surprise. Pittsburgh and Baltimore lead the way in this division, with the likely winner the one less decimated by injuries. Joe Flacco made a lot of money after his Super Bowl win, but, I am still skeptical of his offensive weapons and blind side protector. Is Torrey Smith supposed to lead the team in receiving? He is not a #1 guy just yet. Their defense, again, will be very good, though they lost lots off their title team. Pittsburgh has a very capable defense as well, though, like Baltimore's last year, is aging (namely in the secondary). Big Ben has good targets to throw to in Antonio Brown and newly drafted Markus Wheaton. His running game is not as good as it has been, but I doubt that will matter too much given the shift to a more passing style in the NFL. Cincinnati will endure a "sophomore slump" of sorts, after reaching the playoffs last year. Andy Dalton is a decent starting QB, but he does not have many capable targets around him. Their good defense cannot score the ball much for Cincy. Cleveland finally has a brighter future, though the search for a competent QB still continues (sorry Brandon Weeden). Trent Richardson looks like a star, and provides a very valuable building block for the next few years. I like their outlook, but not this season.
AFC South
Houston 11-5*
Indianapolis 10-6*
Tennessee 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12
Analysis: The AFC South will be a two horse race between Matt Schaub's Texans and Andrew Luck's Colts. The Texans may have the top offense in the league, as they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back and Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at WR. Adding in Owen Daniels (when healthy), and Schaub has 5 legitimate options to give the ball to. Defensively, Brian Cushing could have a huge year, and JJ Watt will continue his reign of terror on offensive tackles. Andrew Luck will be the best QB in the league within the next 3-5 years, but his prominence in year two will only earn a wild card berth. Chuck Pagano is back for a full season, though Bruce Arians has been hired to coach Arizona. I have to like the development of offensive rookies last year, though the big question marks are on the defensive side of the ball. The bottom of their division is weak, and I expect Luck to be able to make enough plays to win games. 2 minutes to go, down by 5, Andrew Luck is a great option to turn to. Tennessee and Jacksonville need to find out what they have in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, and I think both teams will be searching for answers next spring as to who the future belongs to at QB. It could be a long season for these franchises- a shame for Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew.
AFC West
Denver 12-4*
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 5-11
Oakland 4-12
Analysis: Denver is projected here to finish with the top record in the NFL. The offense is stacked, and the defense has solid pieces to help contend for a Super Bowl, though they will miss Elvis Dumervil. Manning to Welker could prove fruitful, though Thomas will breakout this year (as if he hasn't already). The team seems to be at the top of their game. Kansas City will bounce back nicely from their last place finish to go 8-8, led by former 49er Alex Smith. Jamaal Charles is poised for a big year, and Dexter McCluster could get more touches (a good thing!) under Andy Reid as well. Defensively I have a lot of questions for this group, but they should have no problems scoring points. 8-8 seems about right. San Diego will find theirselves in a quandary over Philip Rivers- is he worth keeping around for much longer? After a few great seasons, he has essentially played at a replacement level. It would not shock me to see him in a new uniform next season (Jets?). Oakland is rebuilding, and has first time starter Matt Flynn at the helm. I like Flynn a lot- and expect reasonable success- but his top RB is injury prone, and he has no notable wide receivers to be excited about. It could be a long year in Oakland.
Projected Playoff Teams*
Tiebreaker Scenario**
Other Predictions:
MVP- Russell Wilson QB/Seattle- His continued efficiency will lead Seattle to a share of the division title and a deep playoff run. He is a dual threat who makes smart choices about when to scramble, and is very accurate on short and deep passes alike. Look for a 22/6-esque ratio for TDs to INTs, with a handful of scores on the ground. His stats won't be the brightest, but he will be the most VALUABLE player in the league.
Next Choice: Matt Ryan
Dark Horse: Matt Schaub
Offensive Player of the Year- Aaron Rodgers QB/Green Bay- Now I am becoming more wary of this pick every hour given the state of his offensive line, but he is the best QB in the league with among the best WR corps. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are reliable red-zone targets, and Randall Cobb is poised for a 100+ catch, 1300 yard breakout season. He is essentially an explosive Wes Welker. I like Rodgers to win this award because of his WR options, and his ability to make every throw.
Next Choice: CJ Spiller
Dark Horse: Matthew Stafford
Defensive Player of the Year- JJ Watt DE/Houston- This seems like an easy pick, but every year a handful of defensive players are worthy of this award. Watt was soooo dominant last year that it is hard to pick against him. If he puts up 15 sacks again this year, coupled with the constant pressure he provides on QBs, including pass deflections, he could repeat with this award.
Next Choice: Darrell Revis
Dark Horse: Luke Kuechly
Offensive Rookie of the Year- Monte Ball RB/Denver- John Fox is not afraid to hand off the ball, and Peyton Manning makes running backs better with his presence (see Joseph Addai, Knowshon Moreno). Ball is a classic runner who can catch passes too. He won't be a top ten fantasy back like Alfred Morris last year, but he will be in an advantageous situation to accelerate his progress.
Next Choice: EJ Manuel
Dark Horse: Stedman Bailey
Defensive Rookie of the Year- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- I am taking a total leap of faith with this one. Ansah is incredibly raw, but shows unbelievable potential. He has the ability to put up 10+ sacks, and shows the ability to cover in a zone too- he had a pick-6 on Sanchez in last week's preseason game. He isn't a safe pick here, but he could have a jaw-dropping year.
Next Choice: Dion Jordan
Dark Horse: Matt Elam
NFC West
Seattle 11-5*
San Francisco 11-5*
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 6-10
Analysis: Seattle and San Francisco continue to lead the way in this division. While St. Louis and Arizona have both improved, teams led by Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer cannot help teams make the leap to the next level. Look for Russell Wilson to have a big, and efficient, year, even in the absence of Percy Harvin. Kaepernick will be great as well, but he needs production out of his running backs to take off some of the pressure (Lynch will do the same in SEA). Gore and LaMichael James are poised for very good years. Tavon Austin finally gives the Rams a game changer, but his college teammate Stedman Bailey is one to watch as well. In the end, I think Russell Wilson will lead the 'Hawks far, and Kaepernick/Gore will keep the 'Niners extraordinarily relevant.
NFC East
NY Giants 11-5*
Washington 10-6**
Dallas 6-10
Philadelphia 4-12
Analysis: The Giants lead the way in this division, led by Eli Manning. He has two elite WR options in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, and an offensive line that is among the best in the division. Defensively, the team will be good enough to win the division. Washington will make a return to the playoffs if Griffin has a repeat season, but I am skeptical that he will stay healthy the entire time. Kirk Cousins is among the best backups in the league, but I don't think he will push a team into playoff contention just yet. Dallas and Philadelphia are rebuilding, even if Jerry Jones refuses to admit it. He sees playoffs, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle for the team everyone loves to hate. Chip Kelly's offense will prove potent, but he does not have enough pieces all around to have a successful season just yet.
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5*
Chicago 9-7
Minnesota 8-8
Detroit 8-8
Analysis: In what may be the toughest division this year, Green Bay has the slight edge for now. They have potent offensive players at every position, though the offensive line will have shaky moments. Their balanced offensive attack can best the one dimensional Detroit and Minnesota attacks. Chicago may be the best rival to win the division, assuming the team stays healthy. The offensive line in Chicago is even worse than the one in Green Bay. I expect lots of high scoring outings in this division, but Aaron Rodgers should lead his team to the playoffs yet again.
NFC South
Atlanta 11-5*
New Orleans 10-6**
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 6-10
Analysis: Matt Ryan has taken the step into being a top 5 QB for now (Rodgers, Brady, Manning and Brees), and has the best protection in the division and, perhaps, the best defense. New Orleans should rebound from their down year- clouded by Bountygate- to another wild card berth. Brees is healthy, and should throw for 5000 yards again. Tampa Bay is improving, but is only an 8-8 team under Josh Freeman. Darrell Revis could be a defensive player of the year candidate, and bolsters a strong secondary in Tampa. I'm not saying Mike Glennon will end the season as the starter in Tampa- it is too big of a stretch, barring injury- but he could be at the start of next season. Carolina has a stat stuffer at QB in Cam Newton, but this team is not built to win just yet. Luke Kuechly will have a monster year, but an 8-8 season would be a miracle.
AFC East
Miami 9-7*
New England 8-8
Buffalo 5-11
NY Jets 4-12
Analysis: WOW! Yes, the Dolphins are going to win the AFC East. This is the weakest division in the NFL, as the Jets are in a state of chaos, Buffalo is rebuilding, and the Patriots offense is aging and in shambles. Miami upgraded their pass rush by drafting Deon Jordan, added a deep threat in Mike Wallace, and Ryan Tannehill should be another season improved. I am not a huge Tannehill fan, but the divisions weakness this year sets up nicely for his success. EJ Manuel could be a rookie of the year candidate to watch for in Buffalo, but I expect year 2 under Doug Marrone to go better. Who is Tom Brady supposed to throw to in this division? His slot man now catches balls from Peyton Manning, his two top tight ends are either injured or defending murder charges, and his top replacement is as injury prone as they come. Look for Julian Edelman to catch 75 passes, and Tim Tebow- YES, TIM TEBOW- to see time at TE, especially around the goal line. Ultimately, Tom Brady will not be heading to the playoffs this year.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 11-5*
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 5-11
Analysis: Another strong division- to no surprise. Pittsburgh and Baltimore lead the way in this division, with the likely winner the one less decimated by injuries. Joe Flacco made a lot of money after his Super Bowl win, but, I am still skeptical of his offensive weapons and blind side protector. Is Torrey Smith supposed to lead the team in receiving? He is not a #1 guy just yet. Their defense, again, will be very good, though they lost lots off their title team. Pittsburgh has a very capable defense as well, though, like Baltimore's last year, is aging (namely in the secondary). Big Ben has good targets to throw to in Antonio Brown and newly drafted Markus Wheaton. His running game is not as good as it has been, but I doubt that will matter too much given the shift to a more passing style in the NFL. Cincinnati will endure a "sophomore slump" of sorts, after reaching the playoffs last year. Andy Dalton is a decent starting QB, but he does not have many capable targets around him. Their good defense cannot score the ball much for Cincy. Cleveland finally has a brighter future, though the search for a competent QB still continues (sorry Brandon Weeden). Trent Richardson looks like a star, and provides a very valuable building block for the next few years. I like their outlook, but not this season.
AFC South
Houston 11-5*
Indianapolis 10-6*
Tennessee 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12
Analysis: The AFC South will be a two horse race between Matt Schaub's Texans and Andrew Luck's Colts. The Texans may have the top offense in the league, as they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back and Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at WR. Adding in Owen Daniels (when healthy), and Schaub has 5 legitimate options to give the ball to. Defensively, Brian Cushing could have a huge year, and JJ Watt will continue his reign of terror on offensive tackles. Andrew Luck will be the best QB in the league within the next 3-5 years, but his prominence in year two will only earn a wild card berth. Chuck Pagano is back for a full season, though Bruce Arians has been hired to coach Arizona. I have to like the development of offensive rookies last year, though the big question marks are on the defensive side of the ball. The bottom of their division is weak, and I expect Luck to be able to make enough plays to win games. 2 minutes to go, down by 5, Andrew Luck is a great option to turn to. Tennessee and Jacksonville need to find out what they have in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, and I think both teams will be searching for answers next spring as to who the future belongs to at QB. It could be a long season for these franchises- a shame for Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew.
AFC West
Denver 12-4*
Kansas City 8-8
San Diego 5-11
Oakland 4-12
Analysis: Denver is projected here to finish with the top record in the NFL. The offense is stacked, and the defense has solid pieces to help contend for a Super Bowl, though they will miss Elvis Dumervil. Manning to Welker could prove fruitful, though Thomas will breakout this year (as if he hasn't already). The team seems to be at the top of their game. Kansas City will bounce back nicely from their last place finish to go 8-8, led by former 49er Alex Smith. Jamaal Charles is poised for a big year, and Dexter McCluster could get more touches (a good thing!) under Andy Reid as well. Defensively I have a lot of questions for this group, but they should have no problems scoring points. 8-8 seems about right. San Diego will find theirselves in a quandary over Philip Rivers- is he worth keeping around for much longer? After a few great seasons, he has essentially played at a replacement level. It would not shock me to see him in a new uniform next season (Jets?). Oakland is rebuilding, and has first time starter Matt Flynn at the helm. I like Flynn a lot- and expect reasonable success- but his top RB is injury prone, and he has no notable wide receivers to be excited about. It could be a long year in Oakland.
Projected Playoff Teams*
Tiebreaker Scenario**
Other Predictions:
MVP- Russell Wilson QB/Seattle- His continued efficiency will lead Seattle to a share of the division title and a deep playoff run. He is a dual threat who makes smart choices about when to scramble, and is very accurate on short and deep passes alike. Look for a 22/6-esque ratio for TDs to INTs, with a handful of scores on the ground. His stats won't be the brightest, but he will be the most VALUABLE player in the league.
Next Choice: Matt Ryan
Dark Horse: Matt Schaub
Offensive Player of the Year- Aaron Rodgers QB/Green Bay- Now I am becoming more wary of this pick every hour given the state of his offensive line, but he is the best QB in the league with among the best WR corps. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are reliable red-zone targets, and Randall Cobb is poised for a 100+ catch, 1300 yard breakout season. He is essentially an explosive Wes Welker. I like Rodgers to win this award because of his WR options, and his ability to make every throw.
Next Choice: CJ Spiller
Dark Horse: Matthew Stafford
Defensive Player of the Year- JJ Watt DE/Houston- This seems like an easy pick, but every year a handful of defensive players are worthy of this award. Watt was soooo dominant last year that it is hard to pick against him. If he puts up 15 sacks again this year, coupled with the constant pressure he provides on QBs, including pass deflections, he could repeat with this award.
Next Choice: Darrell Revis
Dark Horse: Luke Kuechly
Offensive Rookie of the Year- Monte Ball RB/Denver- John Fox is not afraid to hand off the ball, and Peyton Manning makes running backs better with his presence (see Joseph Addai, Knowshon Moreno). Ball is a classic runner who can catch passes too. He won't be a top ten fantasy back like Alfred Morris last year, but he will be in an advantageous situation to accelerate his progress.
Next Choice: EJ Manuel
Dark Horse: Stedman Bailey
Defensive Rookie of the Year- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- I am taking a total leap of faith with this one. Ansah is incredibly raw, but shows unbelievable potential. He has the ability to put up 10+ sacks, and shows the ability to cover in a zone too- he had a pick-6 on Sanchez in last week's preseason game. He isn't a safe pick here, but he could have a jaw-dropping year.
Next Choice: Dion Jordan
Dark Horse: Matt Elam
Monday, August 5, 2013
Movies for Late Summer/Fall
Lots of Excitement to See:
Monuments Men- Director: George Clooney, Starring: George Clooney, Matt Damon, Jean Dujardin
Wolf of Wall Street- Director: Martin Scorsese, Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConughey
Foxcatcher- Director: Bennett Miller, Starring: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum
American Hustle- Director: David O Russell, Starring: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence
Out Of The Furnace- Director: Scott Cooper, Starring: Christian Bale, Woody Harrelson, Forest Whitaker
Fruitvale Station- Director: Ryan Coogler, Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer
Captain Phillips- Director: Paul Greengrass, Starring: Tom Hanks, Catherine Keener
Elysium- Director: Neill Blomkamp , Starring: Matt Damon, Jodie Foster
August: Osage County- Director: John Wells , Starring: Maryl Streep, Julia Roberts, lots of others
Some Excitement to See:
The Way, Way Back- Directors: Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, Starring: Steve Carrell, Tony Collette
I am sure there are others left off this list, but these seem to be the top contenders to be very entertaining and OSCAR favorites. Stay tuned for updates.
Monuments Men- Director: George Clooney, Starring: George Clooney, Matt Damon, Jean Dujardin
Wolf of Wall Street- Director: Martin Scorsese, Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConughey
Foxcatcher- Director: Bennett Miller, Starring: Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, Channing Tatum
American Hustle- Director: David O Russell, Starring: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence
Out Of The Furnace- Director: Scott Cooper, Starring: Christian Bale, Woody Harrelson, Forest Whitaker
Fruitvale Station- Director: Ryan Coogler, Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer
Captain Phillips- Director: Paul Greengrass, Starring: Tom Hanks, Catherine Keener
Elysium- Director: Neill Blomkamp , Starring: Matt Damon, Jodie Foster
August: Osage County- Director: John Wells , Starring: Maryl Streep, Julia Roberts, lots of others
Some Excitement to See:
The Way, Way Back- Directors: Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, Starring: Steve Carrell, Tony Collette
I am sure there are others left off this list, but these seem to be the top contenders to be very entertaining and OSCAR favorites. Stay tuned for updates.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Current Events in Sports Today
- The NBA needs to extend the one-and-done rule into a two-and-done rule. This would improve the overall talent level in the collegiate game, while also better preparing players for their time in the NBA. Would there be less players characterized as busts? I have to think there would be. One of the big debates involving the rule includes players who have no desire to play in college, or players who would not be academically eligible or NCAA eligible for a variety of reasons. Enter the NBA Developmental League. Expansion of the league- where each team has their own affiliate- would allow for recent high school graduates to sign with a team for 2 years before coming draft eligible (Going the Brandon Jennings route would still be possible too). The college game, the D-League, and overall quality of the player- on and off the court- would be noticeably improved. Speaking of the D-League...
- Each team needs the ability to control some players on their D-League teams. In the current system, any player on any affiliate can be signed by another NBA team- unless under an NBA contract on a D-League assignment. Many of the reticent teams unwilling to splurge for a D-League franchise cite lack of control of player development as a paramount reason for staying on the periphery of the league. If each team had 5 D-League contracts to offer, maybe for 1/3 of the NBA minimum, more players would be adequately developed by the D-League. The rest of the rosters could be filled by other free agents- whose status would be under the current system- and high school players unwilling to go to college for 2 years (see the rule change proposal in the above paragraph). This would be a stellar start to making the D-League more of a minor league- a AA level- to the NBA.
- Riley Cooper- a current WR for the Eagles- was recently quoted using the N-word towards a security guard at a country music concert. His status with the team needs to be carefully analyzed by the team, and I fully expect him to be cut by the end of the week. The N-word is used far to frivolously in pop culture, which has led to some journalists dismissing this as a mistake. Given the context of the incident, as well as the fact that Cooper is a replacement level WR (sad but true- if he was a Wes Welker level player he wouldn't be cut), I think it is safe to say his tenure in the NFL is over. It should be a cautionary tale for pro athletes everywhere.
- PED use in the MLB will reach new levels in the coming days, as 8 or more players will be significantly suspended for ties to Biogenesis. Alex Rodriguez is the headlining player, and, as a player who has been outed as a PED user in the past- albeit with no suspension- he is facing a potential lifetime ban. The biggest winners in this? The New York Yankees. The team would conceivably be off the hook for the over 100 million remaining on his 10 year contract he signed over half a decade ago. In 6 years we will be looking at the Albert Pujols 10 year 300 million dollar deal in a similar fashion. Regarding the PED use, I think a 162 game suspension would be adequate for A-Rod, and a 100 game suspension for the rest of the positive testees. A-Rod does not quite deserve a lifetime ban, and the media attention that will go with it.
- The Lakers hired Kurt Rambis- former Laker and protegee of Phil Jackson- as an assistant to Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni might make it through the season, as the team is unlikely to make the playoffs, though I'd be willing to bet that the 2014/15 season begins with Kurt Rambis coaching the Lakers.
- Russell Wilson will win the NFL MVP award- you heard it here first. Expect an NFL prediction column soon!
- Would anyone else like to see more opinionated personalities on ESPN? I am so tired of the same opinions from every personality. Around the Horn has become stagnant. PTI needs more freedom for Wilbon and Kornheiser to vent on important issues and game scenarios. The station needs another Jim Rome-like figure who is not afraid to voice their opinion- and no, I am not talking about Stephen A. Smith or Skip Bayless. What about Max Kellerman? Should Colin Cowherd get back into TV? Would you watch a show on ESPN that was all Bill Simmons? The last 3 options are very intriguing, and ESPN needs drastic changes to their TV lineup come fall.
Follow me on Twitter @ZRey12
- Each team needs the ability to control some players on their D-League teams. In the current system, any player on any affiliate can be signed by another NBA team- unless under an NBA contract on a D-League assignment. Many of the reticent teams unwilling to splurge for a D-League franchise cite lack of control of player development as a paramount reason for staying on the periphery of the league. If each team had 5 D-League contracts to offer, maybe for 1/3 of the NBA minimum, more players would be adequately developed by the D-League. The rest of the rosters could be filled by other free agents- whose status would be under the current system- and high school players unwilling to go to college for 2 years (see the rule change proposal in the above paragraph). This would be a stellar start to making the D-League more of a minor league- a AA level- to the NBA.
- Riley Cooper- a current WR for the Eagles- was recently quoted using the N-word towards a security guard at a country music concert. His status with the team needs to be carefully analyzed by the team, and I fully expect him to be cut by the end of the week. The N-word is used far to frivolously in pop culture, which has led to some journalists dismissing this as a mistake. Given the context of the incident, as well as the fact that Cooper is a replacement level WR (sad but true- if he was a Wes Welker level player he wouldn't be cut), I think it is safe to say his tenure in the NFL is over. It should be a cautionary tale for pro athletes everywhere.
- PED use in the MLB will reach new levels in the coming days, as 8 or more players will be significantly suspended for ties to Biogenesis. Alex Rodriguez is the headlining player, and, as a player who has been outed as a PED user in the past- albeit with no suspension- he is facing a potential lifetime ban. The biggest winners in this? The New York Yankees. The team would conceivably be off the hook for the over 100 million remaining on his 10 year contract he signed over half a decade ago. In 6 years we will be looking at the Albert Pujols 10 year 300 million dollar deal in a similar fashion. Regarding the PED use, I think a 162 game suspension would be adequate for A-Rod, and a 100 game suspension for the rest of the positive testees. A-Rod does not quite deserve a lifetime ban, and the media attention that will go with it.
- The Lakers hired Kurt Rambis- former Laker and protegee of Phil Jackson- as an assistant to Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni might make it through the season, as the team is unlikely to make the playoffs, though I'd be willing to bet that the 2014/15 season begins with Kurt Rambis coaching the Lakers.
- Russell Wilson will win the NFL MVP award- you heard it here first. Expect an NFL prediction column soon!
- Would anyone else like to see more opinionated personalities on ESPN? I am so tired of the same opinions from every personality. Around the Horn has become stagnant. PTI needs more freedom for Wilbon and Kornheiser to vent on important issues and game scenarios. The station needs another Jim Rome-like figure who is not afraid to voice their opinion- and no, I am not talking about Stephen A. Smith or Skip Bayless. What about Max Kellerman? Should Colin Cowherd get back into TV? Would you watch a show on ESPN that was all Bill Simmons? The last 3 options are very intriguing, and ESPN needs drastic changes to their TV lineup come fall.
Follow me on Twitter @ZRey12
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