Sunday, June 30, 2013

A Soccer Post: Thoughts on the USA team and the Upcoming World Cup

The Confederations Cup ended today with Brazil winning 3-0 against the defending World Cup and Euro champ Spaniards.  With a home field advantage in next summer's World Cup, one would have to think Brazil enters as the favorites, especially after exploiting Spain's seemingly unexploitable style.

- Brazil's 3 man front involving Fred, Hulk, and most importantly Neymar may be the best attacking trio in the world.  Neymar is incredibly gifted with the ball at his foot, and made countless plays today for himself an teammates.  His upcoming transfer to Barcelona should make him better, and more knowledgeable about many of the other Spaniards should Brazil and Spain meet again.

- Jesus Navas may be the most important player on the Spain squad that was highly heralded before today.  His ability to change speeds, and create space on the wing gave Spain their best chances.  Upon entering the game at the start of the second half today, he earned a penalty and a corner within a few minutes- though Sergio Ramos blew the opportunity.  For a team now searching for an identity, I would suggest a 3 man front, as they like to play, involving Pedro, Villa and Navas, while bringing on Torres and Fabregas as the next two options.  Saldado may be better suited playing Xavi's current role- a spot he may lose before the World Cup kicks off next summer.

- The United States' team has played better as of late, but miscues in the back and in central midfield are still worrisome.  Michael Bradley is solid as a central midfielder, but Jermaine Jones is a yellow card waiting to happen, and is often out of position after an attack.  Omar Gonzales and Matt Besler have looked pretty good overall in center defense, though outside back play has been less ideal.  For the time being, Demarcus Beasley and Brad Evans solve the issue some, though I have to think Eric Lichaj and Fabian Johnson need more looks at outside back. 

- Up top the Americans' long standing issue of poor striker play seems to be solved by Jozy Altidore, who has scored in his past 4 games.  As our #9 forward, he has been good playing quick one-twos with Dempsey- a relationship that needs to keep blossoming.  Here is how I would line up the American squad for the start of the World Cup, though lots could change until that day.

ST- Jozy Altidore
RF- Clint Dempsey
LF- Eddie Johnson
CAM- Graham Zusi
RCDM- Michael Bradley
LCDM- Jermaine Jones
RB- Brad Evans
CB- Omar Gonzales
CB- Matt Besler
LB- Eric Lichaj
GK- Tim Howard

Bench:
GK- Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando
DEF- DeMarcus Beasley, Geoff Cameron, Maurice Edu, Timmy Chandler
MID- Landon Donovan, Fabian Johnson, Brek Shea, Edgar Castillo
FWD- Terrence Boyd, Hercules Gomez

With Johnson and Dempsey on the wings, the team has speedy players who like the ball at their feet, but can also make runs off of Altidore.  Zusi is a good choice to play behind Altidore, rather than on the wing, because he makes plays so well. 


My guesses for the top 8 seeds:
1 Brazil (host nation)
2 Spain
3 Germany
4 Italy
5 Argentina
6 Netherlands
7 Uruguay
8 England

2014 NBA Draft

This is premature.  The draft in 2014 is 362 days away (and more if they move it back a week, as rumored).  This is a good way to show what expectations are entering the season, and tell of the players I expect to perform highly and get drafted next year.  Will this big board reflect the talent level even next month?  Maybe not.  But one has to start somewhere.  As every other big board should/will have, Andrew Wiggins leads the way as the best prospect in the NBA draft since Oden/Durant.
  1. Andrew Wiggins SG/Kansas
  2. Julius Randle PF/Kentucky
  3. Jabari Parker SF/Duke
  4. Joel Embiid C/Kansas
  5. Aaron Gordon PF/Arizona
  6. Dante Exum G/Australia (could choose to go to college after this year instead)
  7. Mario Hezonja SG/Croatia
  8. Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State
  9. Andrew Harrison PG/Kentucky
  10. Dario Saric SF/Croatia
  11. Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan
  12. Gary Harris SG/Michigan
  13. Jarnell Stokes PF/Tennessee
  14. Montrezl Harris F/Louisville
  15. Chris Walker SF/Florida
  16. Semaj Christon PG/Xavier
  17. Alex Poythress SF/Kentucky
  18. Willie Cauley-Stein C/Kentucky
  19. Jahii Carson PG/Arizona State
  20. LaQuinton Ross SG/Ohio State
  21. James Young SF/Kentucky
  22. Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
  23. Rasheed Sulaimon SG/Duke
  24. Aaron Harrison SG/Kentucky
  25. Dakari Johnson C/Kentucky
  26. Mitch McGary PF/Michigan
  27. TJ Warren SF/NC State
  28. Spencer Dinwiddie PG/Colorado
  29. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF/Arizona
  30. Russ Smith G/Louisville
Others to watch: 
James McAdoo, PF, PJ Hairston, SG and Marcus Paige, PG- North Carolina
Doug McDermott SF/Creighton
Jerami Grant and CJ Fair- Syracuse
Sam Dekker SF/Wisconsin
Adreian Payne, PF, Brendan Dawson, SF, and Keith Appling, PG- Michigan State
Kaleb Tarzewski, C, and Brandon Ashley, SF- Arizona
Leo Westermann PG/France
Nigel Williams-Gross PG/Washington

Saturday, June 29, 2013

NBA Draft Grades

I typically don't like giving out grades for drafts, as it truly takes a few years to tell how good a team's draft was.  I am going to diverge from my usual process and give grades out this year, and in a few years we will see if the value that teams thought they had truly existed.  Here are the draft grades for last night's epic event:

Atlanta:  Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto- I like what Atlanta did.   They added two high potential players who will likely stay in Europe another year.  That is ok because the Hawks are rebuilding.  Muscala can contribute as a stretch 5, and Neto has potential as a draft and stash pick.  Grade: B

Boston:  Kelly Olynyk, Colton Iverson- Boston made headlines not for their draft, but for the trade they made that sent Garnett, Pierce and Terry to Brooklyn for Gerald Wallace, Kris Kardashian Humphries, and 3 first round picks.  Rebuilding is about to start in Boston, which is why taking a low ceiling player like Olynyk is puzzling.  He will play minutes right away, but is not a terrific athlete, and plays a similar role as Jeff Green will play more effectively.  I'm puzzled by the moves Boston made.  Grade: D

Brooklyn:  Mason Plumlee- Plumlee will likely be a 7th man as his ceiling, though he can step into a role right away.  Given that the team has over 80 million dollars committed to their new starting 5 of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett and Lopez, adding an NBA ready role player, and a cheap one, was a good pick rather than taking a player more suited for success in a few years.  Grade: B+

Charlotte:  Cody Zeller- Zeller was a surprising pick with Noel and Len still available.  He is very skilled, but might not help the Bobcats dig their way out of the Eastern Conference cellar.  Noel would have been a better pick, which would have emphasized defense next to Kidd-Gilchrist.  I am higher on Zeller than most, and see him as a definite starter at the 4 spot, but this seemed like a slight reach.  Grade: C+

Chicago:  Tony Snell, Erik Murphy- I would have taken Snell in the second round.  He is a great athlete and a good shooter, but he is far away from competing at an NBA level, and other players at a similar position could have been better suited to play in Chicago.  With Deng and Butler already in place, I really question this pick for Chicago.  Murphy is a solid stretch 4, but I have to think the Bulls need a guard.  Grade: C-

Cleveland:  Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix- Cleveland shocked the world when they took Bennett #1- my 9th ranked player in the draft.  With Tristan Thompson in place already at the 4, and Bennett's weight issues and lack of quickness holding him back from playing the 3, I have to think the Cavs overthought this top pick.  Karasev is a terrific shooter, and Felix could be a solid role player, but this draft grade has to reflect the reach Cleveland made at the top of this draft.  Grade: C+

Dallas:  Shane Larkin, Ricky Ledo- Dallas moved back twice and traded Cunningham in an effort to save salary cap space to lure Dwight Howard.  Larkin is a terrific shooter and should be able to perform better than Darren Collison in due time.  Ledo is a boom or bust pick with significant red flags.  At pick 43, a good value.  Grade: B

Denver:  Erick Green, Joeffrey Lauvergne- Denver added Green, the 46th pick, by trading Rudy Gobert's draft rights.  Green fits as a scorer off the bench, and will lessen the amount of time Brian Shaw will have to play Andre Miller.  I thought he was a great pick in round 2.  I am befuddled over their trade of Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur and the rights to Lauvergne.  Koufos was a very good center for Denver in a limited starter role, but the trade makes way for JaVale McGee to play more minutes.  Now who does Denver have as a second center option?  Grade:  B-

Detroit:  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Mitchell, Peyton Siva- Detroit added very good value in this draft.  Pope fills a need at SG, and shows the team still has faith in Brandon Knight.  Mitchell could have gone in the late lottery without a lot of head-scratching, so getting him at 37 is remarkable.  Siva has definite backup PG potential.  I think Detroit could secure a playoff spot next year, but the key will be Knight's development next to Pope, Monroe and Drummond.  Grade:  A-

Golden State:  Nemanja Nedovic-  I wanted Nedovic in Portland.  He was a great value pick at 30, and it would not surprise me to see him filling part of the role Jarrett Jack's likely departure will leave.  If he comes over right away, many teams in the low to mid 20s will be giving their best Homer Simpson "doh" impression.  A great pick.  Grade:  B+

Houston:  Isaiah Canaan- Jeremy Lin is solid, though he isn't a player who can play 40mpg effectively.  Canaan is an upgrade at the backup one spot, and has shooting that Kevin McHale will love.  A good pick.  Grade:  B

Indiana:  Solomon Hill- Really?  Solomon Hill was a fringe second round pick.  To take him in the first round is laughable.  Hill was a 4 year player who can play some minutes, but I think Indiana is overly optimistic here.  I expected so much more from Kevin Pritchard.  Grade: F

LA Clippers:  Reggie Bullock- The Clippers needed shooting.  They got shooting.  Bullock has an NBA body, and can fill in the role Caron Butler plays once his deal expires.  I like this pick, and it fills a need.  Bonus: They still have Bledsoe!  Grade:  B

LA Lakers:  Ryan Kelly- The Lakers pick of Kelly is okay.  They needed someone to stretch the 4 and make 3s- both things he can do.  I am concerned over who he defends, and his athletic ability.  I have a hard time seeing him playing minutes, even for an aging Lakers squad.  Grade:  C

Memphis:  Jamaal Franklin, Janis Timma- I was not in love with Franklin as a draft prospect, and thought he as overrated.  The fall to #41 was further than I would have guessed, and Memphis got a steal this late in the draft process.  Timma will likely never play in the NBA, and they would have been better served taking a forward like CJ Leslie.  Grade:  B

Miami:  James Ennis-  The Heat traded in to take the swingman from Long Beach State.  Given the aging prospects on the end of that bench, Ennis brings some intrigue to the table.  He is better than James Jones!  Grade:  B-

Milwaukee:  Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nate Wolters:  I give John Hammond a lot of credit for taking a chance on the Greek.  He isn't ready yet, but I think will become an NBA starter some day.  The Bucks did not need help in the frontcourt- as they have solid depth with Sanders, Henson, Ilyasova and Mbah A Moute- but could have used a shooting guard.  With Redick leaving, and Ellis looking for money elsewhere (he won't get it), Milwaukee may have a tough time finding a two-guard.  It looks like Hammond is close to hitting the reset button.  Grade:  B

Minnesota:  Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng, Lorenzo Brown, Bojan Dubljevic- I think Minnesota got very good value out of their draft picks.  Muhammad has a reputation for being selfish, though guards like Rubio and Ridnour especially will be putting him in a place where he needs to score.  Dieng instantly upgrades the backup center spot, and is insurance if Pekovic plays elsewhere next season.  Brown is the 5th PG on the roster, but was good value where they added him.  Dubljevic is a sweet shooting 4 man who we won't hear from in a few years.  Muhammad could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate.  Who else stands out for it?  Grade:  A-

New Orleans:  Pierre Jackson- The Pelicans selected Noel, but dealt him with a top 3 protected 2014 1st round pick for Jrue Holiday.  Holiday was an All-Star at the point last year, and should help New Orleans new core built around Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.  New Orleans now has Vasquez as a 6th man, and should be contenders for a low playoff seed this year.  I like what they did.  Grade: A-

New York Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr.- The Knicks fans actually cheered!  Though I am less in love with this pick than they are.  JR Smith will walk, and Shumpert will start at the 2, which left an opening for a SG who could stretch the floor on the bench.  Hardaway is streaky and one-dimensional.  He is athletic, but the team took a guy I had rated as an early rd. 2 pick in the first round.  Grade:  C+

Oklahoma City:  Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Grant Jerrett- I am surprised OKC took so many rookies.  I bet all three end up in the D-League.  Adams has the most potential in the group, but is 2 years away from being anything more than a 5th big man.  Roberson should progress nicely if he can develop an outside jump shot- but this is Sam Presti's attempt to, again, prove he is smarter than the rest of the league.  Abrines could be a nice addition as a draft and stash, and Jerrett is good value as a non-guaranteed stretch 4.  Still have to think Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb will get lots more minutes than these guys.  Grade:  B

Orlando Magic:  Victor Oladipo, Romero Osby- Oladipo may have been my favorite player in the draft, and was an excellent selection by Rob Hennigan.  He will fit nicely next to Vucevic and Harris, and helps speed up the rebuilding process in Orlando.  A top pick next year could put them back into the playoff picture.  Also- Romero Osby?  I hate this pick about as much as the Solomon Hill pick.  He would have gone undrafted in the D-League draft.  Grade:  B+

Philadelphia:  Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Arsalan Kazemi- Philadelphia hit the reset button by trading for Noel and a 2014 rd. 1 pick by giving up Holiday.  The team will not be good next year, which increases the odds of having 2 very high first round picks in a loaded draft class.  Noel and Carter-Williams will be given playing time and opportunities to make mistakes.  I think they will wind up ahead of the learning curve.  Kazemi is an energy guy who teammates will love playing with.  I think Hinkie nailed this draft.  Grade:  A+

Phoenix:  Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, Alex Oriakhi- Phoenix is going to be bad again next year.  Len has a tremendous upside, but he will be stuck behind Gortat in year one, and on a team with a bunch of young players who have not reached their potential.  Goodwin was a solid value pick, and should be given time to prove he belongs.  I would be surprised if Oriakhi makes the team.  Overall, Phoenix is banking on picking high again next year.  Grade:  B-

Portland:  CJ McCollum, Allan Crabbe, Jeff Withey, Marko Todorovic- I think Neil Olshey did a wonderful job drafting for Portland.  McCollum fills a need as a combo scoring guard who can play effectively with and without Lillard.  He could be a summer league MVP.  Crabbe and Withey were both late first round talents, so to get them in the second round was perfect.  Withey likely is our backup center next year, assuming Leonard starts- a big assumption at this point- and Crabbe will get minutes to backup Matthews.  Todorovic is young, and playing on a good Barcelona team.  He should keep getting better overseas.  I love what Portland did.  Grade:  A

Sacramento:  Ben McLemore, Ray McCallum- Sacramento did well.  McLemore was my 4th rated prospect, and others had him atop their boards.  To get him at 7 was tremendous.  He doesn't have a huge ego, but has a smooth game.  In a locker room with Cousins and Evans, he will need to find a role model somewhere.  McCallum is another average PG who will fight for minutes with Jimmer and Thomas.  That spot is still up for grabs.  Grade:  B+

San Antonio:  Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas- Jean-Charles had a huge Nike Hoop Summit, which boosted his stock into the end of the first round.  Look for him to play in France for one more year before joining fellow Frenchmen Parker and even Diaw.  Thomas is a lethal scorer who doesn't know the word defense.  Under Popovich, he could find a role as a stretch 4.  Grade: B-

Toronto Raptors:  No picks, No Grade

Utah:  Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert- I really like what Utah did.  They needed a PG, and got the best one in the draft.  They needed a center to replace Al Jefferson (likely) and they added the longest guy in the draft.  They had needs and filled them without giving much up.  Utah will fight for a playoff spot again next year.  Grade:  B+

Washington:  Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.- Porter to Washington was a phenomenal fit.  He will start at the 3 next to Wall and Beal, in a very promising 1-3 rotation for the next few years.  Rice can be a terrific bench scorer without the mindset of Jordan Crawford.  They still need some big men in the next few years, and John Wall should get a max deal, but Washington has enough pieces to make a run for the 8th seed next year.  They did well.  Grade: A-


Bonus- If I were a GM I would be trying to get my hands on CJ Leslie, Jackie Carmichael and Brandon Paul.  These 3 guys will all make a roster next year, and have the best chances to make us wonder why 30 teams passed twice on them.



 

Thursday, June 27, 2013

NBA Draft- Instant Reaction

The Draft has come and gone, and we all must wait 365 more days for the next one- the best sports event of the year.  Here are some instant thoughts. 
     *Winners and Losers will come later tonight or tomorrow

- Boston traded their present away.  They gave up Pierce, Jet and Garnett for what is likely 3 first round picks in the 20s, 30 million dollars of Gerald Wallace, 12 million dollars of Chris Humphries and a few 12th men.  It's going to be a rough few years for Boston fans- better hope Danny Ainge has a plan.

- Have to love what Portland did.  McCollum, Crabbe and Withey were all in my top 30, and all filled needs.  Have to give major props to Neil Olshey. 

- Anthony Bennett #1?  Cleveland reached for the 3rd straight year, snagging the #9 player on my big board.  As an undersized power forward, I am confused as to how he fits with Tristan Thompson already in place.  If they try to play him at the 3 spot, the experiment won't go well.

- Zeller went before Len and Noel.  I would have lost a lot of money had someone made that bet with me before the draft.  I love Zeller's skill, but he doesn't have the upside of Len or Noel.  I think Noel is the top player in the draft, and Philadelphia will be happy to have him, though Jrue Holiday was a steep price to pay.  Speaking of that trade...

- Holiday is an interesting fit in New Orleans, and I like the move.  Noel wasn't fitting a need, and ideally (to them) the pick they gave up will not be that high.  For a Philadelphia team in need of a rebuild, the pieces they added were remarkable.  In a strong draft next year, they could add an impact player.

- CJ Leslie and Jackie Carmichael were not drafted despite being rated in my top 40.  They have a great chance to make a roster somewhere and have an impact as an undrafted free agent.  Both players would have been better picks than the random forward (Osby) that Orlando picked at 51.

- Thought the ESPN crew did a great job tonight.  Bill Simmons/Jalen Rose and Jay Bilas were all compatible with each other, and Rece Davis does a nice job hosting.  2014 draft should feature a similar lineup.

- Simmons made a joke about Atlanta hiring David Kahn as a consultant after the team selected back to back point guards (Larkin dealt to Dallas.)  This was the joke of the night.

- Quick hit winners:  Philadelphia, Portland, Atlanta, Golden State
- Quick hit losers:  Boston, Indiana, Phoenix, Toronto

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Updated NBA Mock Draft

In this version, I will go over best and worst case comparisons, and talk about the draft range and fits for each player.  In the past, I have done a lot of talking about what a player brings, so, I will be slightly moving away from that for this edition.  The NBA Draft is tomorrow at 4pm (West Coast), which means the first pick will be around 430.
  1. Cleveland- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky- Best Case: Ben Wallace, Worst Case: Larry Sanders, Range on Draft night: 1-2.  Noel fits better with Orlando, next to Vucevic, but Cleveland should take him because he is the best player in the draft.  Alex Len is my #5 player, and should not go #1.
  2. Orlando- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana- Best Case: Dwyane Wade, Worst Case: Better Tony Allen, Range on Draft night: 2-5.  Oladipo probably doesn't become the next Dwyane Wade, but it would not surprise me if he becomes an All-Star at some point in his career.  He and Noel have the best shot at it.  McLemore could be a fit here as well.
  3. Washington- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV- Best Case: Larry Johnson, Worst Case: Draymond Green, Range: 3-8.  For the record, I would not take Bennett in the top 7- he is ranked 9 on my board.  I am hearing that John Wall wants Bennett, and that management is afraid of Porter's lack of elite attributes.  It could be a smoke screen, but it sounds like Bennett will be the pick.  If not Bennett, then Porter will be chosen here.
  4. Charlotte- Alex Len C/Maryland- Best Case: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Worst Case: Robert Swift, Range: 1-6.  Len fits best in a role where he can earn instant minutes, and Charlotte fits that bill.  They need a low post scorer, and Len is a versatile offensive player.  He is a definite project, but the Bobcats are in a position to be patient.  Don't be surprised to see Minnesota trade for this pick, McLemore and Porter will be in play if available.
  5. Phoenix- Cody Zeller PF/Indiana- Best Case: Chris Bosh, Worst Case: Josh McRoberts, Range: 4-11.  Zeller has been linked to Phoenix as a potential trade partner with Portland involving Gortat.  With reports of Zeller moving up in mocks, Phoenix may just take him at 5.  He fills a need as a low post scorer, though other experts will say they need perimeter scoring more.  I think drafting Zeller is a progressive step, and would keep Michael Beasley off the court.
  6. New Orleans-  Otto Porter SF/Georgetown- Best Case: Sane Ron Artest, Worst Case: Jared Dudley, range: 3-6.  Porter is a versatile player who could fit with any team, Phoenix and New Orleans among them.  The Pelicans needs a capable small forward, and Porter fits the bill- AND he is not a combo forward, of which the Pelicans have too many  Expect McLemore to get a long look here if available.
  7. Sacramento- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas- Best Case: Ray Allen, Worst Case: Brandon Rush, Range: 2-7.  McLemore hasn't worked out well for many teams, but that won't defer Sacramento, who needs a competent shooting guard not named Tyreke Evans.  McLemore is passive, which could work well with Cousins in that locker room.  Burke and Carter-Williams will get looks here.
  8. Detroit- Trey Burke PG/Michigan- Best Case: Ty Lawson, Worst Case: Aaron Brooks, Range: 6-8.  I think Burke's draft range is very comfortable- New Orleans, Sacramento or Detroit.  With Sacramento and New Orleans passing, Burke falls into their laps, and Detroit can have another attempt at landing a point guard of the future after Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight could not hold down the spot.  If they pass on Burke, it is because they prefer Carter Williams or McCollum, though all signs point to Burke.
  9. Minnesota- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia- Best Case: Sane JR Smith, Worst Case: Corey Brewer, Range: 7-15.  Unless Minnesota trades up, or lands Marshon Brooks, expect this pick to be a shooting guard.  While sources indicate Shabazz Muhammad is in the mix, Minnesota needs outside shooting and perimeter defense more than slashing and guard post-ups.  KCP fits very well.
  10. Portland- CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh- Best Case: George Hill, Worst Case: Jimmer Fredette, Range: 5-12.  McCollum is a terrific shooting point guard who can play both positions- and add depth that Portland desperately needs.  Assuming trade rumors for Aldridge are indeed just rumors, I would be surprised if Portland took a big man unless Zeller slides.  If McCollum goes 9, Caldwell-Pope could easily go 10.
  11. Philadelphia- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse- Best Case: Shaun Livingston, Worst Case: Kendall Marshall's rookie year, Range: 7-14.  Carter-Williams would be the top PG prospect if he could shoot.  Because Philadelphia already has Holiday- and because MCW can play both guard spots- the fit here is very good.  Adams does not make sense as a project center here, as MCW can find rotation minutes right away.
  12. Oklahoma City- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh- Best Case: Shot Blocking BJ Mullens, Worst Case: Patrick O'Bryant, Range: 11-16.  Supposedly Portland has some interest, though I don't think he goes at 10.  Oklahoma City fits well because they have a need at backup center.  Adams is also a solid long term project- and one OKC can afford to gamble on.  This pick could be in play to trade up.
  13. Dallas- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia- Best Case: Rudy Fernandez, Worst Case: Steve Novak, Draft Range: 7-15.  I think Karasev could be a surprise pick to Sacramento- if there is any team most likely to reach it is them- but he goes here to Dallas in an unsurprising move.  He is a terrific shooter who can be stashed overseas for a year, and will preserve cap space.
  14. Utah- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga- Best Case: Andrea Bargnani, Worst Case: Fabricio Oberto, Range: 11-22.  Olynyk is coveted because he is very skilled, though is he not a great athlete.  Utah has a need for a skilled power forward, and they can afford to pass on a PG until 21, as all of the PG's in the tier above are now gone in this mock draft.
  15. Milwaukee- Shane Larkin PG/Miami- Best Case: Nate Robinson, Worst Case: Patty Mills, Range: 14-21.  I would have to think Utah would be his ceiling and floor, but they'd most likely try to snag him at 21 rather than 14.  Larkin fits in Milwaukee well, who could lose their starting backcourt.  Larkin also adds needed outside shooting, and could pair well with JJ Redick if he is retained.  Shabazz Muhammad could also go here.
  16. Boston- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany- Best Case: Darren Collison, Worst Case: Jeremy Pargo, Range: 14-23.  Schroeder had a big Nike Hoop Summit, and has been compared to Rondo due to his athleticism and length.  Boston doesn't shy away from players with character concerns, which makes Ricky Ledo another potential target, and Rondo's ACL means Boston could use one more PG.
  17. Atlanta- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA- Best Case: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Worst Case: Al Thornton, Range: 9-20.  Muhammad has a wide draft range, beginning with Minnesota at #9.  He fits in Atlanta as a scorer on the wing who can compliment Al Horford, and he has a drive to win that many prospects above him don't have.  With two first round picks, Atlanta can afford to take a gamble here.
  18. Atlanta- Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece- Best Case: Nicolas Batum, Worst Case: Division II Basketball Player, Range: 12-29.  His draft range is wide, but I think a team falls in love with him on draft day- and his enormous potential.  His ceiling is very high, and his floor very low.  I don't know how he can help Atlanta in the next few years, but the promise he offers will be too much to pass up- especially for a team with two picks.  For similar logic, Gobert or Noguiera could be picked here as well.
  19. Cleveland- Tony Mitchell SF/North Texas- Best Case: Paul George, Worst Case: James Singleton, Range: 15-24.  I believe Mitchell projects better as a small forward, which puts him into contention for Cleveland's #19 pick (though it may very well be traded).  Their biggest need, Mitchell offers a high ceiling- and Cleveland is not afraid to take risks.  Safer picks could involve Reggie Bullock or Mason Plumlee.
  20. Chicago- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville- Best Case: Marcus Camby, Worst Case: Hasheem Thabeet, Range: 17-26.  Chicago needs a shooter and a big man who can fill the role Omer Asik had.  Given the number of shooters available in free agency, and the cost of big men, Dieng may be a better pick here for Chicago.  Other options could be Reggie Bullock, Allen Crabbe and Jeff Withey.
  21. Utah- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State- Best Case: Mo Williams Worst Case: Norris Cole, Range: 21-35.  Canaan is loved by the Jazz front office, which means he could be the pick here at his ceiling.  The Jazz need a long term option at the point guard spot, and Canaan shoots the ball well enough to hope he develops.  Other options could be Larkin or Schroeder if they fall.
  22. Brooklyn- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil- Best Case: Larry Sanders, Worst Case: Hasheem Thabeet, range: 14-23.  Nogueira is raw and rail thin, but at 7'0 and long he offers lots of potential.  Brooklyn is capped out, and is an option to stash overseas for a few years.  Other picks could be Rudy Gobert or Mason Plumlee.
  23. Indiana- Rudy Gobert C/France- Best Case: Dikembe Mutumbo, Worst Case: Shawn Bradley, Range: 12-30.  Some teams love Gobert, others wouldn't touch him.  I think Gobert lands closer to the Shawn Bradley end of the spectrum, but he does have tremendous upside.  Kevin Pritchard has a history of liking European players, and, expect this pick to be stashed if it isn't traded (rumor: #23 and Gerald Green for Jimmer Fredette).
  24. New York- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State- Best Case: Kawhi Leonard, Worst Case: Sam Young, Draft Range: 17-35.  Franklin can offer defense and energy, but his offensive game is very raw.  Given his age, he has to develop a jump shot or be stuck on the end of a bench.  New York will take the plunge, as they need perimeter defenders.  They could take Jeff Withey as a backup 5 as well.
  25. LA Clippers- Erick Green PG/Virginia Tech- Best Case: Monta Ellis Worst Case: Toney Douglas, Range: 23-37.  When I compare Green to Ellis, it has nothing to do with attitude.  Green is a great scorer, and the Clippers need guard scoring to replace Chauncey Billups and potentially Eric Bledsoe.  His ability to play both guard spots is a plus as well.  They could go big with Plumlee or Withey as well.
  26. Minnesota- Jeff Withey C/Kansas- Best Case: Omer Asik, Worst Case: Greg Stiemsma, Range: 19-30.  I have a hard time believing Withey does not go in the first round.  He is already 24, but will be a 10 year backup center as his floor.  He blocks shots, which Minnesota needs.  Darko didn't work out, Withey should be a better choice in the post Kahn-era.  This pick has been rumored to be involved in trade talks.
  27. Denver- Mason Plumlee C/Duke- Best Case: Brandan Wright, Worst Case: Miles Plumlee, Range: 16-27.  I think this is Plumlee's floor.  He is athletic, low usage, and does the dirty work.  Denver doesn't have much of a need for him, but he is the best player available, and adds to their already deep bench.  They could opt for Bullock or Crabbe as well.
  28. San Antonio- Allen Crabbe SG/California- Best Case: JJ Redick, Worst Case: Anthony Morrow, Range: 15-30.  Crabbe can shoot- we all know that.  Can he do more?  Given the poor-ish guard play from Ginobili and Green in games 6 and 7, they may want to add some competition into the mix from Crabbe.  The rich get richer here.
  29. Oklahoma City- Nemanja Nedovic PG/Serbia- Best Case: Goran Dragic, Worst Case: Petteri Koponen, Range: 28-45.  Nedovic is an uber-athletic guard who could stay overseas for a year or two.  He is more of an offensive player, and has potential at 21 years old.  I love him as a prospect, and expect either San Antonio or Oklahoma City to take him on draft day.
  30. Phoenix- Ricardo Ledo SG/Providence- Best Case: Marcus Thornton, Worst Case: Marshon Brooks, Range: 16-38.  Ledo has significant red flags- the only thing keeping him from a prosperous career in the NBA.  He can really score the ball, and is worth the risk for Phoenix
  31. Cleveland- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina.  Best Case: Jared Dudley, range: 19-32
  32. Oklahoma City- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell.  Best Case: Channing Frye, range: 27-40
  33. Cleveland- Alex Abrines G/Spain.  Best Case: Marco Belinelli, range: 28-40
  34. Houston- Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan.  Best Case: Wesley Matthews, range: 20-35
  35. Philadelphia- Tony Snell SF/New Mexico.  Best Case: Jared Cunningham, range: 24-38
  36. Sacramento- Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State.  Best Case: Steve Blake, range: 26-39
  37. Detroit- Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Vipers.  Best Case: Gerald Green, range:  20-40
  38. Washington- CJ Leslie F/NC State.  Best Case: Dante Cunningham, range:  30-45
  39. Portland- Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky.  Best Case: Lance Stephenson, range: 31-45
  40. Portland- Livio Jean-Charles F/France.  Best Case:  Dante Cunningham, range: 28-40
  41. Memphis- Andre Roberson F/Colorado.  Best Case:  Landry Fields, range:  37-50
  42. Philadelphia- Colton Iverson C/Colorado State.  Best Case:  Joel Pryzbilla, range: 40-60
  43. Milwaukee- Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor.  Best Case: Isaiah Thomas (UW), range: 31-44
  44. Dallas- Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State.  Best Case:  Kendall Marshall, range 42-53
  45. Portland- Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State.  Best Case:  Carl Landry, range: 31-50
  46. Utah- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State.  Best Case:  Corey Brewer, range: 45-und
  47. Atlanta- Ray McCallum PG/Detroit.  Best Case:  Jerryd Bayless, range: 45-und
  48. LA Lakers- Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona.  Best Case:  Josh McRoberts, range: 40-und
  49. Chicago- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois.  Best Case:  Jordan Crawford, range: 45-und
  50. Atlanta- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro.  Best Case:  Joel Freeland, range: 35-50
  51. Orlando- Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota.  Best Case:  Nick Collison, range: 45-und
  52. Minnesota- James Ennis SG/Long Beach State.  Best Case:  Corey Brewer, range: 45-und
  53. Indiana- Peyton Siva PG/Louisvilla.  Best Case:  Cory Joseph, range: 50-und
  54. Washington- Raul Neto PG/Brazil.  Best Case:  Sergio Rodriguez, range: 50-und
  55. Memphis- Erik Murphy PF/Florida.  Best Case:  Matt Bonner, range: 50-und
  56. Detroit- Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro.  Best Case:  David Andersen, range: 50-und
  57. Phoenix- Daniel Theis PF/Germany.  Best Case: Lou Amundson, range: 50-und
  58. San Antonio- Oleksandr Lypovyy SF/Ukraine.  Best Case:  Marquis Daniels, range: 50-und
  59. Minnesota- Augusto Lima PF/Brazil.  Best Case:  Reggie Evans, range: 50-und
  60. Memphis- Vander Blue G/Marquette.  Best Case:  Sundiata Gaines, range: 50-und

Monday, June 24, 2013

Updated Big Board- Top 60

  1.  Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
  2.  Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
  3.  Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
  4.  Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
  5.  Alex Len C/Maryland
  6.  Trey Burke PG/Michigan
  7.  Cody Zeller PF/Indiana
  8.  CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh
  9.  Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
  10.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
  11.  Shabazz Muhammad SG/UCLA
  12.  Michael Carter Williams PG/Syracuse
  13.  Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece
  14.  Tony Mitchell F/North Texas
  15.  Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
  16.  Shane Larkin PG/Miami
  17.  Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
  18.  Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
  19.  Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany
  20.  Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
  21.  Rudy Gobert C/France
  22.  Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
  23.  Jeff Withey C/Kansas
  24.  Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia
  25.  Mason Plumlee C/Duke
  26.  Allan Crabbe SG/California
  27.  Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
  28.  Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina
  29.  Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
  30.  Ricky Ledo SG/Providence
  31.  Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan
  32.  Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
  33.  Tony Snell SF/New Mexico
  34.  Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
  35.  Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
  36.  Andre Roberson F/Colorado
  37.  CJ Leslie F/NC State
  38.  Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
  39.  Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Vipers
  40.  Colton Iverson C/Colorado State
  41.  Livio Jean Charles F/France
  42.  Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor
  43.  Alex Abrines SG/Spain
  44.  Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State
  45.  Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State
  46.  Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
  47.  Ray McCallum PG/Detroit
  48.  Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State
  49.  James Ennis SG/Long Beach State
  50.  Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro
  51.  Erik Murphy PF/Florida
  52.  Solomon Hill F/Arizona
  53.  Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona
  54.  Kenny Kadji PF/Miami
  55.  Raul Neto PG/Brazil
  56.  DeShaun Thomas SF/Ohio State
  57.  Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota
  58.  Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro
  59.  James Southerland SF/Syracuse
  60.  Peyton Siva PG/Louisville

Sunday, June 23, 2013

State of the Blazers- Part One

Thus far I have previewed the top 6 teams in the draft, and am now going to skip to Portland in the draft order.  Portland is a team with a bright future- a team that contended far better than expected this season.  LaMarcus Aldridge had a stellar year, and earned an All-Star appearance for the 2nd time.  Damian Lillard emerged as the rookie of the year, and a point guard heavily coveted around the league.  Nic Batum started out hot, but injuries plagued his season, and his effectiveness went down.  These three players are reliable building blocks- and deep playoff caliber ones at that.  Wesley Matthews is a solid starter, and is a good, albeit streaky, shooter.  Combined with young talent in Meyers Leonard and Will Barton- who showed flashes at the end of the year- and European imports Freeland and Claver, the Blazers have a decent core moving into the summer, though it is absolutely imperative to expand on the team's depth, a major issue this past year.  Here is the team's depth chart entering the summer, and draft on Thursday:

1 Lillard
2 Matthews/Barton
3 Batum/Claver
4 Aldridge/Freeland
5 Leonard
QO- Maynor, 50/50 odds of resigning.
Notable FA- Hickson, likely to sign elsewhere
Euro rights held- Kostas Papanikolaou (Greece)

Stat Leaders:
Points: Aldridge (21.1)
Rebounds: Hickson (10.4)
Assists: Lillard (6.5)
Steals: Matthews (1.3)
Blocks: Aldridge (1.2)

The team has roughly 10 million dollars to spend this summer, and has 4 draft choices, 10, 39, 40 and 45 at their disposal.  I would doubt the team picks 4 players, so expect some movement from the team on draft day.  I am dividing up Blazers draft targets into 4 categories:
  1. Trade Up
  2. Pick 10 options
  3. Trade down/Trade up with rd. 2's
  4. Round 2 options
Trade Up:  Only 2 realistic options

1.  Victor Oladipo- I believe any trade up would have to be centered around Oladipo, the energetic 2 guard from Indiana.  He ranks 2nd on my board, though could go between 2-5.  It would cost lots to move up for him, likely Wesley Matthews and pick 10.

2.  Nerlens Noel- I write this cautiously.  Rumors afloat- and they seem to have some legs to them- have the Cavs favoring Alex Len for the number one overall pick (stay tuned for updates on this).  If Noel were to fall some, Portland may want to make an offer (most likely the same as above).  He does have injury concerns, but his defensive potential pairs well with what Aldridge wants in a center.

Pick 10 options:  I'd be stunned if it wasn't one of these 5 players, ranked in order of Blazers' most likely preference.

1.  CJ McCollum- McCollum is a combo guard from Lehigh who is a terrific shooter and scorer, though needs to improve as a point guard.  He rebounds and defends well enough, but his on ball defense, especially, could improve.  He would fit in as a 6th man option who could back up both guard spots.

2.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope- The SG from Georgia has had a rapid climb over the past few months up the draft board.  He is a great shooter and defender, though is a shaky ball handler and decision maker.  His potential makes him a very intriguing option, and he would be an option to start at the 2 in a few years.

3.  Cody Zeller- Oladipo's Indiana teammate reminds me of a 6'11 David West.  He is very skilled, and has range on his jump shot out to 20 feet.  He is not a great defender, though he is a very good rebounder with a high motor.  If the previous 2 players are gone, Zeller would likely be the best player available (#7 on my board).

4.  Steven Adams- Adams is a 7'1 center from Pittsburgh who is a true shot blocking center with an NBA body.  Unlike Leonard, he is incredibly raw offensively, and would have trouble scoring in any situation at the next level.  He is a project, though physical specimens like him don't come around to often.  For the record, I am against drafting Adams- as Leonard is our project center (don't need 2).  However he is a possibility here.

5.  Shabazz Muhammad- I don't think Shabazz would be the pick, but if the team wants a wing player, and McCollum and KCP are off the board, Muhammad would be the top available.  He scores and rebounds well for a guard, but is a me-first player with red flags.  He is a risky, but intriguing project.

Trade Down/Up:  I don't see this as a true option for Portland unless they fall in love with a player and try to maneuver the draft board.  Here are 2 players who could be targets:

1.  Gorgui Dieng- I wouldn't have much of a problem with Dieng in the late lottery, but he most likely goes between 15-25.  He is a terrific defender who needs to get stronger, and has a mid range jumpshot and solid post passing skills.  He is more NBA ready than Adams would be.

2.  Glen Rice Jr.- Rice Jr. was a D-League playoffs MVP who excelled playing a stretch 4 spot despite being a shooting guard.  He has red flags from his college era, but there is no doubt that he dominated against good competition when given the chance.  Character concerns scare me- I think he is more of an early round 2 prospect- but sources have linked Rice to Portland.

2nd round possibilities:  Lots of options- positions likely dependent on who is taken at pick 10.

1.  Nemanja Nedovic- I bet he goes in round 1 on draft day, but he could easily slip to Portland at 39/40.  I have him ranked 23 due to his scoring ability and athleticism.  His PG skills and defensive intensity need to improve, but he has too much potential to ignore.  He could be one of the best values and sleepers in the draft.

2.  Colton Iverson- Iverson reminds me of Przybilla some.  The 7-footer from Colorado State has an NBA body, and is a fantastic rebounder.  He would be a low-usage player who would most likely be a 5th big man in his first few years.  If he can develop a more consistent mid range shot he will be a long term backup NBA center.

3.  Andre Roberson- I think that players with one elite skill in round 2 are good options to take.  Roberson is an elite rebounder off the wing, and has potential to be a small ball 4 if he can improve his outside shot (Corner 3 especially.)  I really like Roberson's potential in this draft to make an impact as a 2nd round pick.

4.  Brandon Paul- Guys who can score are always appreciated.  Paul has deep range and can score in a variety of ways.  Playing at Illinois, he was the go to player, and often was forced into poor shot selection.  At the NBA level, he could wind up as a valuable role player.

5.  Archie Goodwin- Goodwin had struggles at Kentucky, but at only 18 with his potential he could have a Lance Stephenson like effect as a rd. 2 pick.  He was overrated coming out of high school, but still shows ability as a passer and slasher.  With an improved outside shot and decision making, Goodwin could be a steal.

Part 2- Free Agency will come after the draft- stay tuned!

* New Big Board tomorrow!

NBA Mock Draft with Analysis

Before I begin the mock, I want to comment on the NBA Finals.  Game 7 just ended, bringing a close to one of the greatest playoff series I have ever witnessed.  Enough talk about LeBron James wilting late in games.  He put the team, including the other big 2, on his back, and pushed through a solid SA team for a title.  I am in awe of LeBron James' performance.  Wade had a good game, and Bosh struggled.  Timmy D showed he was ageless in a more phenomenal sense than Benjamin Button.  Parker was solid.  San Antonio was exploited at the 2 guard spot defensively.  It was a phenomenal series, and brings much excitement with it into the NBA Draft, one week from today.  Without further adieu, here is an updated mock draft:
  1. Cleveland- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky- I still have a hard time believing Noel won't be the pick.  He is the best player on the board, and could become an All-Defensive player.  He has the best shot of being an All-Star out of this draft class.
  2. Orlando- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana- I wouldn't be surprised if he went 3-5, but he is a better value here.  Oladipo is the best perimeter defender, which pairs well with the rest of the roster.  If Oladipo can become a good scorer, he could wind up as the best player in the draft class. 
  3. Washington- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown- Porter can shoot, defend, rebound and handle the ball all at an above average level for small forwards.  He is versatile, and fits next to Wall like Deng fits next to Rose, albeit on an emerging stage rather than a proven stage.  Washington could be a playoff team next year.
  4. Charlotte- Alex Len C/Maryland- It sounds like the pick will come down to Bennett and Len, but Len makes much more sense here.  The Bobcats don't have an option at center outside of Biyombo, who was a reach on his own draft day.  Len will have a learning curve, but the Bobcats can afford to be patient.  He could be a very good starter, and has high potential.
  5. Phoenix- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas- McLemore has supposedly had a series of poor workouts.  He is still a great shooter and the best scorer from the perimeter in the draft.  He'll stay in the top 5.
  6. New Orleans- Trey Burke PG/Michigan- Sources are starting to say that Demps may prefer Carter-Williams, but that may be a smoke screen.  Rivers is not a PG, so they should address the position.  Burke can score and distribute solidly, and is a very good athlete.  He will be the best PG in the draft class.
  7. Sacramento- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV- Sacramento has a lot of needs.  Bennett seems to be the consensus top player on the board (I'm not in the consensus here), and could fit as a 3 or 4 man next to Patterson and/or Cousins.  He is long and strong, with a good shot, but is not very quick, and is a classic tweener.  Seems like a Kings-esque pick.
  8. Detroit- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse- Detroit is solid in the frontcourt with Monroe and Drummond, so they add a PG in Carter-Williams who could play with Knight, and potentially guard 2's.  He has to become a better shooter, and make better decisions against top talent, but he is a great value at this point for Detroit.
  9. Minnesota- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia-Minnesota has not been able to score from the wing, particularly the 2-guard spot.  They even brought in Brandon Roy last year, who all Blazer fans loved, but knew was done in the NBA.  Caldwell-Pope is a terrific shooter with good defensive potential.  I have seen many mocks with McCollum here, but they don't need another PG option, as they already have Rubio, Ridnour, Barea and Shved.
  10. Portland- CJ McCollum G/Lehigh- Portland would be torn not to select Zeller here, but they go for McCollum instead.  He is a fantastic shooter and ball handler, though he needs to improve his court vision and defensive fundamentals.  Portland would expect him to be the 6th man, and play next to Damian Lillard at times in what could be a very tantalizing backcourt.
  11. Philadelphia- Cody Zeller PF/Indiana- The Sixers would turn in their card in record time.  Zeller fits perfectly in Philly, who has no low post scorer.  Zeller is a good athlete, and is tremendously skilled, showing some jump shot range too.  His defense is nothing to write home about, but I would expect it to improve at least above league average standards.
  12. Oklahoma City- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh- Oklahoma City played Thabeet at backup center, which should be a short term option.  Adams has lots of defensive potential, but is very raw offensively.  He will have time to develop in Oklahoma, and a second unit of Adams, Jones III and Lamb, who were both drafted last year, will have lots of potential.
  13. Dallas- Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece- I have to admit it- I am more intrigued by the Greek than I probably should be.  He can shoot, handle the ball, make plays, block shots, etc.  He does everything well, though his instincts need to improve a lot.  His biggest knock is a lack of competitive experience, though he played well in his first U-20 national team games.  I think someone takes a shot on him in the lottery.
  14. Utah- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA- The UCLA supposed prodigy failed to live up to expectations, and is now underrated after all of the criticism he has taken.  When teams pass on players for what they cannot do, they live to regret it.  These are the reasons players like Kawhi Leonard, DaJuan Blair and others fall on draft day.  Muhammad is a terrific scorer and a great rebounder for a guard.  Don't rule him out as high as #7 to Sacramento.
  15. Milwaukee- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia- Milwaukee is potentially going to lose both Ellis and Jennings- though Ellis is crazy to think he can make more than the Bucks just offered him.  They need outside shooting, and Karasev may be the best in the draft.  He has a quick release and plays hard.  After seeing the effects guys like Redick and Klay Thompson have had as 3 point shooters, Karasev will go high.
  16. Boston- Ricardo Ledo SG/Providence- I have Ledo ranked 30, but he is a bit of an enigma.  On one hand he is a terrific scorer and defender, though his instincts are brutal.  On the other, he was academically ineligible at Providence, and was called the "worst person ever" by one of his former coaches.  He is a boom or bust type pick- and one Danny Ainge won't be afraid to make.
  17. Atlanta- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany- Schroeder had his coming out party at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland.  He is a speedy guard who excels penetrating through the lane.  He could go as high as 13 to Dallas.
  18. Atlanta- Rudy Gobert C/France- What you see is what you get from Gobert.  He is massive, and decently athletic for his size.  He wants to come over right away, and he could pair well with Al Horford on the minutes they play together.
  19. Cleveland- Tony Mitchell SF/North Texas- Mitchell's draft stock fluctuates based off of who you read.  I wouldn't hesitate to take him late in the lottery, but he falls in this mock.  Mitchell can shoot and rebound, and could back up both forward spots in Cleveland.
  20. Chicago- Shane Larkin PG/Miami- Chicago needs outside shooting and a backup PG.  Larkin fits the bill, and has lots of potential to be a 6th man for Chicago.  He is small, which limits his upside to play with Rose, but he is the best player available at this juncture.
  21. Utah- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State- Supposedly Utah is enamored with Canaan, which allows them to address the wing position at pick 14.  Canaan is a fantastic shooter who could develop into a starter one day.
  22. Brooklyn- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil- "Bebe's" stock is highly on the rise, and he could go late lottery, starting with Dallas as 13.  He is massive and rail thin, and has potential as a rim protector in 3 years.
  23. Indiana- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga- Olynyk is not a great athlete, but is a very skilled 4 man with height.  With David West's impending free agency, and Hansbrough's inconsistent play, look for Olynyk to be picked up here if he falls.
  24. New York- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville- Dieng could go high as well.  The 15-35 range is very volatile, and players could go anywhere within the range without much thought.  Dieng is a rim protecting big man with a good outside shot and high post passing.  A good fit for NY.
  25. LA Clippers- Jeff Withey C/Kansas- Withey is a tremendous shot blocker who excels at defending without fouling.  He is raw offensively, and at 24 may not improve much more, but his ability to have a solid defensive impact gets him drafted here.
  26. Minnesota- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke- Plumlee was recently referred to on Blazersedge as a "Wal-mart" center.  He does everything well until he is overused.  For 15 mpg, he could be a fantastic value.
  27. Denver- Allan Crabbe SG/California- Crabbe also shoots the ball well, though his game is more limited than others before him.  Denver desperately needs shooters, and Crabbe fits the style and depth that Denver has promoted.
  28. San Antonio- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech- Green was the leading scorer in the NCAA, but is not as polished offensively.  Given the struggles San Antonio had with their guard play late in the NBA Finals, Green could be a good grab.  Don't count out Serbia's Nemanja Nedovic here either- he should be a first round pick, but probably slips to round 2 (Hello Portland! hopefully...)
  29. Oklahoma City- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina- Oklahoma City can use some outside shooting as well, and Bullock has potential to be a 3 & D player who could replace Sefolosha one day.  He is low ceiling, but fits so well.
  30. Phoenix- Glen Rice Jr. SF/NBDL- Rice could go much higher, but red flags push him to Phoenix at 30.  After adding McLemore and Rice, Phoenix has some legitimate wing scoring options for Dragic to play with.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Updated NBA Draft Rankings

The NBA Draft is on June 27, 2013.  Here are the top 30 prospects for the upcoming draft:
*Note- board order/players will very likely change between now and the draft.
** Grade Scale (numbers indicate player's ceiling): 90-100 star, 80-90 all-star, 70-80 starter, 60-70 contributor, 50-60 role player, 40-50 potentially draftable

  1.  Nerlens Noel C/Kentucky Grade:81
  2.  Ben McLemore SG/Kansas Grade: 80
  3.  Otto Porter SF/Georgetown Grade: 78 
  4.  Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana Grade: 78
  5.  Trey Burke PG/Michigan Grade: 77
  6.  Alex Len C/Maryland Grade: 76
  7.  Cody Zeller C/Indiana Grade: 76 
  8.  CJ McCollum G/Lehigh Grade: 76
  9.  Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV Grade: 74
  10.  Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA Grade: 73
  11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia Grade: 72
  12.  Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse Grade: 71
  13.  Rudy Gobert C/France Grade: 71
  14.  Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany Grade: 70  
  15.  Giannis Antetokoumpo SF/Greece Grade: 70
  16.  Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville Grade: 70
  17.  Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga Grade: 69 
  18.  Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh Grade: 69
  19.  Sergey Karasev SF/Russia Grade: 68 
  20.  Tony Mitchell SF/North Texas Grade:  68  
  21.  Shane Larkin PG/Miami Grade: 69 
  22.  Jeff Withey C/Kansas Grade: 68
  23.  Mason Plumlee PF/Duke Grade: 67 
  24.  Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia Grade: 67
  25.  Allan Crabbe SG/California Grade: 67
  26.  Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina Grade: 65
  27.  Erick Green PG/Virginia Tech Grade: 65
  28.  Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil Grade: 65
  29.  Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State Grade: 64
  30.  Mike Muscala C/Bucknell Grade: 64
  31.  Tim Hardaway Jr. SG/Michigan Grade: 64
  32.  Jamaal Franklin SF/San Diego State Grade: 64
  33.  Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State Grade: 64
  34.  Colton Iverson C/Colorado State Grade: 63
  35.  Andre Roberson F/Colorado Grade: 63
  36.  CJ Leslie F/NC State Grade: 63
  37.  Archie Goodwin G/Kentucky Grade: 62
  38.  Livio Jean-Charles F/France Grade: 62
  39.  Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor Grade: 61
  40.  Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande Vipers Grade: 61
  41.  Tony Snell SG/New Mexico Grade: 60
  42.  Ricardo Ledo SG/Providence Grade: 60
  43.  Alex Abrines SG/Spain Grade: 60
  44.  Nate Wolters PG/North Dakota State Grade: 59
  45.  Brandon Paul SG/Illinois Grade: 58
  46.  Ray McCallum PG/Detroit Grade: 58
  47.  Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State Grade: 58
  48.  James Ennis SG/Long Beach State Grade: 57
  49.  Kenny Kadji PF/Miami Grade: 56
  50.  Erik Murphy PF/Florida Grade: 56
  51.  Solomon Hill SF/Arizona Grade: 55
  52.  Raul Neto PG/Brazil Grade: 55
  53.  Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State Grade: 54
  54.  Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona Grade: 54
  55.  DeShaun Thomas SF/Ohio State Grade: 54
  56.  Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro Grade: 53
  57.  Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota Grade: 51
  58.  Marko Todorovic PF/Montenegro Grade: 51
  59.  James Southerland SF/Syracuse Grade: 50
  60.  Peyton Siva PG/Louisville Grade: 50
  61.  Seth Curry G/Duke Grade: 50
  62.  Myck Kabongo PG/Texas Grade: 50
  63.  Vander Blue SG/Marquette Grade: 50
  64.  Richard Howell PF/NC State Grade: 49
  65.  Jamelle Hagins PF/Delaware Grade: 49
  66.  Ryan Kelly SF/Duke Grade: 48
  67.  Zeke Marshall C/Akron Grade: 48
  68.  Phil Pressey PG/Missouri Grade: 48
  69.  DJ Stephens SF/Memphis Grade: 48
  70.  Khalif Wyatt SG/Temple Grade: 48
  71.  Michael Snaer SG/Florida State Grade: 47
  72.  Arsalan Kazemi PF/Oregon Grade: 47
  73.  BJ Young SG/Arkansas Grade: 47
  74.  Adonis Thomas SF/Memphis Grade: 47
  75.  Brandon Davies PF/BYU Grade: 46
  76.  DeWayne Dedmon C/USC Grade: 46
  77.  Augusto Cesar Lima PF/Brazil Grade: 46
  78.  Daniel Theis PF/Germany Grade: 46
  79.  Matthew Dellavedova PG/St. Mary's Grade: 45
  80.  Laurence Bowers SF/Missouri Grade: 45
  81.  Rodney Williams SF/Minnesota Grade: 45
  82.  Oleksandr Lypovyy SF/Ukraine Grade: 45
  83.  Robert Covington SF/Tennessee St. Grade: 45
  84.  CJ Aiken PF/St. Joseph's Grade: 45
  85.  AJ Matthews C/Farmingdale State Grade: 44
  86.  Elias Harris SF/Gonzaga Grade: 44
  87.  Jack Cooley PF/Notre Dame Grade: 44
  88.  Brandon Triche SG/Syracuse Grade: 44
  89.  Will Clyburn SF/Iowa State Grade: 43
  90.  Ed Daniel PF/Murray State Grade: 42
  91.  Aziz N'Diaye C/Washington Grade: 42
  92.  Christian Watford SF/Indiana Grade: 42
  93.  Maurice Kemp SF/ECU Grade: 41
  94.  Brock Motum PF/Washington State Grade: 41
  95.  Will Cherry G/Montana Grade: 40
  96.  Derrick Nix PF/Michigan State Grade: 40
  97.  Joeffrey Lauvergne PF/France Grade: 40
  98.  Alexandre Paranhos SF/Brazil Grade: 40
  99.  Alex Oriakhi C/Missouri Grade: 40
  100.  Amath M'Baye SF/Oklahoma Grade: 40 
*This list can also be seen under the Big Board link on the side*

Friday, June 14, 2013

Updated NBA Mock Draft

The NBA Draft is less than 2 weeks away!  Until then, one can expect to hear many rumors floated by teams- some true, some far from true.  Expect the mock draft to change quite a bit until then, especially when league executives accidentally show their gameplans.  Cleveland in particular is supposedly undecided (even though Noel should be the obvious choice).  Their GM has made peculiar picks in the past two drafts (Tristan Thompson- ranked 10th by me that year, and Dion Waiters- ranked 8th by me last year.  I mocked them Valanciunas and Barnes)  It would not surprise me if the Cavs overthought the pick.  For now?

  1.  Cleveland- Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
  2.  Orlando- Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
  3.  Washington- Otto Porter SF/Georgetown
  4.  Charlotte- Alex Len C/Maryland
  5.  Phoenix- Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
  6.  New Orleans- Cody Zeller PF/Indiana
  7.  Sacramento- Trey Burke PG/Michigan
  8.  Detroit- Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
  9.  Minnesota- Anthony Bennett PF/UNLV
  10.  Portland- CJ McCollum PG/Lehigh
  11.  Philadelphia- Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
  12.  Oklahoma City- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
  13.  Dallas- Dario Saric SF/Croatia (Has not officially withdrawn to this point.)
  14.  Utah- Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA
  15.  Milwaukee- Giannis Antetokounmpo SF/Greece
  16.  Boston- Sergey Karasev SF/Russia
  17.  Atlanta- Shane Larkin PG/Miami
  18.  Atlanta- Rudy Gobert C/France
  19.  Cleveland- Allen Crabbe SG/California
  20.  Chicago- Reggie Bullock SF/North Carolina
  21.  Utah- Dennis Schroeder PG/Germany
  22.  Brooklyn- Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga
  23.  Indiana- Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
  24.  New York- Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
  25.  LA Clippers- Tony Mitchell SF/North Texas
  26.  Minnesota- Tim Hardaway Jr SG/Michigan
  27.  Denver- Jamaal Franklin SG/San Diego State
  28.  San Antonio- Jeff Withey C/Kansas
  29.  Oklahoma City- Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
  30.  Phoenix- Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
     
  31. Cleveland- Erick Green G/Virginia Tech
  32. Oklahoma City- Jackie Carmichael PF/Indiana State
  33. Cleveland-  Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia
  34. Houston- Tony Snell SF/New Mexico
  35. Philadelphia- Archie Goodwin G/Kentucky
  36. Sacramento- Glen Rice Jr. SF/Rio Grande NBDL
  37. Detroit- CJ Leslie F/NC State
  38. Washington- Ricardo Ledo SG/Providence
  39. Portland- Colton Iverson C/Colorado State
  40. Portland- Livio Jean-Charles F/France
  41. Memphis- Andre Roberson F/Colorado
  42. Philadelphia- Alex Abrines SG/Spain
  43. Milwaukee- Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
  44. Dallas- Pierre Jackson PG/Baylor
  45. Portland- Mouhammadou Jaiteh C/France (rumored to withdraw if not a rd. 1 pick...)
  46. Utah- Trevor Mbakwe PF/Minnesota
  47. Atlanta- Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State
  48. LA Lakers- Nate Wolters PG/North Dakota State
  49. Chicago- Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
  50. Atlanta- Bojan Dubljevic PF/Montenegro
  51. Orlando- Ray McCallum PG/Detroit
  52. Minnesota- James Ennis SG/Long BEach State
  53. Indiana- Peyton Siva PG/Louisville
  54. Washington- Grant Jerrett PF/Arizona
  55. Memphis- Seth Curry G/Duke
  56. Detroit- Raul Neto G/Brazil
  57. Phoenix- Marko Todorovic C/Montenegro
  58. San Antonio- Oleksandr Lypovyy SF/Ukraine
  59. Minnesota- DeShaun Thomas F/Ohio State
  60. Memphis- Carrick Felix SG/Arizona State

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Draft Attribute Ranks

Rather than post another big board (expect an update soon!), I have decided to post initial rankings of various attributes.  The categories I have chosen are:
Inside Scoring
Outside Scoring
Shooting
Inside Defense
Outside Defense
Ball Handling
Rebounding
Potential
Most likely to underwhelm
Undervalued

There could be dozens of others added on, but for now these are the 10 chosen.  Without further ado, here are the top players in each category!

Inside Scoring
1 Cody Zeller
2 Anthony Bennett
3 Kelly Olynyk

Outside Scoring
1 McLemore
2 McCollum
3 Burke

Shooting
1 McCollum
2 Karasev
3 Crabbe

Inside Defense
1 Noel
2 Withey
3 Dieng

Outside Defense
1 Oladipo
2 Porter
3 Caldwell-Pope

Ball Handling
1 Burke
2 Larkin
3 Carter-Williams

Rebounding
1 Roberson
2 Plumlee
3 Iverson

Potential
1 Noel
2 Len
3 Antetokoumpo

Most Likely to Underwhelm
1 Bennett
2 Franklin
3 Gobert

Undervalued
1 Nedovic
2 Carmichael
3 Roberson

Not who you would have picked?   Tweet your answers to @ZRey12

Monday, June 10, 2013

State of the Pelicans

It feels funny to write "Pelicans" as the name of a professional sports team...  not that Hornets was much better.  I digress:  New Orleans is a team with a promising future.  Last year they took Anthony Davis with the number one pick- a player destined for multiple All-Star appearances.  After trading Chris Paul to LA, the team was left without an identity.  Davis is a phenomenal building block, but is still a few years away from becoming an All-Star.  Ryan Anderson is the best stretch 4 in the game- and a player coveted around the league.  Eric Gordon can be a lethal scorer, but has knees that some think will soon resemble Brandon Roy's.  Vasquez and Lopez are solid contributors, but were forced into a starting role.  In short, there is a lot to like about this team- but they need an infusion of talent to make the leap into playoff contention.  Here is how their depth chart currently looks:

1 Vasquez
2 Gordon/Rivers
3
4 Davis/Anderson
5 Smith

The team also holds options on Robin Lopez (5M), Brian Roberts, Lance Thomas and Darius Miller.

Statistical Leaders from 2012/13:
Points: Gordon (17)
Rebounds: Davis (8.2)
Assists: Vasquez (9.0)
Blocks: Davis (1.8)
Steals: Aminu (1.2)

Without counting the team options (If they were all declined) the Pelicans have about 24 million dollars in cap space.  If they keep Lopez and Roberts (What I would expect), they would have about 17-18 million.  The team has lots of flexibility to make moves, but New Orleans isn't a sought after destination because of the team's recent losing record streak.  Just like some of the other teams below them, they may have to overpay a player to sign him.  Here are some potential free agent options, followed by draft options, where they hold the 6th pick.

Team Needs:  SF, C, PG

Free Agency

Paul Pierce- Now, before you get too excited, yes I know.  Pierce is not technically a free agent.  His final year (Next one) on his contract is non-guaranteed, and there is speculation that Boston could look to cut Pierce and start building towards the future.  Pierce would be a perfect fit in New Orleans, and could still be a go-to player, with a capable 4 man (Davis) next to him.  Vasquez is no Rondo, but he actively looks to get teammates involved.  Pierce fits well in New Orleans, who could afford to pay him.

Andre Iguodala- If he chooses, Iguodala can opt into free agency, where he will likely become the most sought after wing player on the market.  He would bring needed defense and athleticism to the Pelicans, and has some ability to handle the ball as well.  He is not a terrific shooter, but Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon have shown the ability to shoot.  He would fit nicely in New Orleans, but may look to sign with a team closer to contending.

Nikola Pekovic- New Orleans struggled rebounding the ball.  The RFA from Minnesota could be a good fit to fill the gap at center, as Robin Lopez is better suited as a backup.  By offering a max contract, Minnesota may not match, giving New Orleans their center.  He would fit next to Davis both offensively and defensively, and would bring needed toughness to New Orleans.

Draft


Otto Porter- Porter fills a need as a versatile, and low cost when compared to Pierce and Iggy, 3 man.  Porter is a good shooter and defender who would fit right in with the core in NO.

Dario Saric- Saric has been hotly rumored to be withdrawing from the draft, but, if he stays in, New Orleans could take him at #6 overall.  Saric is a point-forward along the lines of a Hedo Turkoglu or Toni Kukoc who needs to work on his shooting.  His talent is undeniable, and New Orleans could persuade him to stay in the draft by giving him a promise.

Trey Burke- If New Orleans does not view Vasquez as their PG of the future, they could spend a pick here on Burke.  The national college player of the year, Burke excels with the ball in his hands, and is a capable shooter, and uses his elite quickness to get in the lane. 

What does the future look like?  It looks bright.  Anthony Davis is a building block all GM's would salivate over.  Ryan Anderson is a sought after point forward.  They have another high pick to work with.  Eric Gordon, when healthy is solid.  Austin Rivers has to play better, and be a scorer.  I likened him to a lesser Monta Ellis before last years draft, which looked true in parts.  He just couldn't make shots.  Hopefully, he has worked hard this summer to insure his WARP is not more than 5 below league average again next year.  If I were Dell Demps, I would try to trade Gordon- I know, easier said then done.  I would look for a desperate team with cap space (Charlotte?) to essentially get 50 cents on the dollar.  If I were in the front office, I'd take Trey Burke, and give him the starting job from day one.  He is a special talent who will start in the league for a long time.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Eurocamp

The NBA Draft Combine is one of the biggest events in preparing for the draft.  Many international prospects cannot attend, though, because of contractual obligations with their respective clubs.  This year only two international prospects- Schroeder and Gobert- performed at the combine.  Both these players are mid-first round picks.  The international crop is stronger than in the last few years, and there are many players in Treviso who could really improve their stock.   Here are my thoughts about some players involved:

The most intriguing players for this draft are Nemanja Nedovic, Lucas Nogueira and Bojan Dubljevic.  In addition, Dante Exum is a fantastic prospect for next year's draft, and is a player to watch hard in the future.  Also, Giannis Antetokoumpo's U-20 Greek team played an hour away against the U-20 Croatia team.  Being there to scout the event and Antetokoumpo's game would have been great.  So, based off of what I have read, and from my analysis of each player thus far, here are a few predictions.

-It sounds like Gobert had to withdraw due to food poisoning.  His draft stock won't be affected, and he will likely go between 12 and 20 on draft day.

- Lucas Nogueira is the next Hasheem Thabeet- and I don't necessarily mean that as a bad thing.  Thabeet got thrown into the fire too early, and was not developed properly.  If a team is patient with Nogueira, he could be a very effective big man for 20min a game at the next level.  His ceiling could be as high as 16 to Boston, but he likely goes between 25-35.

- Bojan Dubljevic is a strong 6'9 power forward with a good perimeter stroke.  He looks like he could play a similar role as Joel Freeland played in Portland this year, but he is still a few years away.  as a draft and stash, teams could do much worse in round one. 

- It sounds like Antetokoumpo had 11 points and showed both his versatility and his raw talent.  He is 3-4 years away, and is the biggest project in the draft.  A team drafting him has to think of him as high school student- he needs lots of time.  A team with 2 picks in round one, like Cleveland, Minnesota, Atlanta and Oklahoma City could all bite the bullet on the intriguing mystery man from Greece.  After pick 20, he should be in demand.

- I am going to make a bold statement that Nemanja Nedovic goes in the first round.  I have had a first round grade on him all year (and even last), but I appear to be the only one this high on him.  He is an extraordinary athlete who can play both guard spots, and is improving his shooting.  He is still a work in progress, and needs to become a better ball handler, but his defensive potential coupled with his scoring ability show that he should be a first round pick.  If he goes in round 2, he is the steal of the draft.  I would love to see Portland trade up to get him.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Portland Trail Blazers Draft Workout List

Here is the list of players who have worked out for Portland thus far:
* Next to each player is an estimated draft range
Today (June 7):
Cody Zeller/Indiana, 6-14
EJ Singler/Oregon, und.
Glen Rice Jr/NBDL, 20-40
Trevor Mbakwe/Minnesota, 40-und.
Larry Drew II/UCLA, und.
Ed Daniel/Murray State, 50-und.
Ian Clark/Belmont, und.

June 3:
Elijah Johnson/Kansas, und.
Abdul Gaddy/Washington, und.
Brandon Davies/BYU, 50-und.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Georgia, 9-19
Sherwood Brown/Fla. Gulf Coast, und.
Jared Berggren/Wisconsin, und.

May 31:
Brandon Triche/Syracuse, 50-und.
Grant Jerrett/Arizona, 40-und.
Greg Echenique/Creighton, und.
DJ Cooper/Ohio, und.

May 30:
BJ Young/Arkansas, 40-und.
Adonis Thomas/Memphis, 40-und.
Dexter Strickland/UNC, und.
Tony Mitchell/North Texas, 15-30
Richard Howell/NC State, 40-und.
James Ennis/Long Beach St., 25-45

The only players Portland has worked out who could go number ten are Zeller, Caldwell-Pope, and Mitchell, though Mitchell would be a slight reach.  Stay tuned to see who is added onto this list.

*Bonus*- It sounds like Dario Saric may withdraw.  I love Saric's game, and he would be good value to Portland at ten.  If he withdraws, the Blazers lose a candidate to draft, as well as lose an option who could slip to ten if Saric went higher.  It's best for Rip City if he stays in, but time will tell.  He has been very undecisive thus far in the draft process.


Thursday, June 6, 2013

State of the Suns

Phoenix wound up as the worst team in the Western Conference, and 4th worst in the league.  Unfortunately, they were jumped on draft day by Washington, and are now picking 5th in the draft.  Their roster is unimpressive.  Their best player is Goran Dragic, who has the potential to be a double-double player with points an assists.  His biggest issue?  The players around him.  Dragic is in the upper half of starting point guards, and could have started for some playoff teams this year (Atlanta, Houston, LAL, Chicago, Miami) and improved upon what they already had.  He shoots the ball well from the perimeter, and shows good court vision.  He won't ever be Steve Nash to Phoenix, but he is still a very good starting PG on a very reasonable contract.  The rest of their team?  Here is how their depth chart looks now:

1 Dragic/Marshall
2 Dudley/Brown
3 Morris/Morris
4 Scola/Beasley
5 Gortat/Frye
The team also has team options on Haddadi and Tucker, and can place a qualifying offer on Garrett.  I would expect all three to be declined. 

Statistical Leaders from 2012/13:
Points: Dragic (14.7)
Rebounds: Gortat (8.5)
Assists: Dragic (7.4)
Blocks: Gortat (1.6)
Steals: Dragic (1.6)

The team has roughly 10 million dollars in cap space, but has not spent money wisely over the past few summers, having given out average players like Beasley, Frye, Warrick and Childress, lucrative and long contracts.  The team has some flexibility, but given the lack of talent on the roster (Dragic, Gortat and Dudley are 3 best players, and ok young talent) there will not be many free agents wanting to go to Phoenix.  As a result, they may have to overpay someone, or look for value (the smarter choice).  Here are free agent and draft fits for the team:

Team Needs: SF, SG, PF
Free Agency:

Tony Allen- Phoenix was an awful defensive team last year.  Enter Allen- the best wing defender in the league right now.  He won't make a lot of shots, but he would have an increased role than he has in Memphis.  Allen could start to change the mentality in Phoenix that the run and gun offense should be maintained.  New coach Jeff Hornacek should help with that as well.

David West- West was the glue holding together a good Indiana team.  Even though he said he wanted to resign with the Pacers, the Suns could make it interesting by offering a lucrative, short term contract.  West scores in multiple ways, and would be an upgrade over Luis Scola, who is more of a backup at this point in his career.

JJ Redick- Redick has been a hot topic in this series, but he fits the mold of a player who could get overpaid.  Dragic needs reliable options to find on the wing, and Redick is the best option on the market.

Andrew Bynum- What's left in his knees?  Who knows, but Phoenix's training staff is the highest regarded in the league.  Maybe something could be figured out.

Greg Oden- No, they probably aren't that desperate, but similar logic applies.

Draft:
Ben McLemore- McLemore has drawn Ray Allen comparisons.  He would find a good situation in Phoenix where he could be the go to guy with time to experiment.  He could score 20 points a game in his first year, possibly inefficiently.  A Dragic/McLemore backcourt would be potent offensively.

Victor Oladipo- Oladipo has tremendous defensive potential.  What if they were able to add Allen and Oladipo?  What wing wants to go up against that?  The quickest way to get back into contention is to build from the defense first.  Oladipo would fit nicely in Phoenix.

Otto Porter- Does anyone actually think the Morris twins or Michael Beasley should play extended minutes at the 3?  I don't.  All three are low efficiency stretch 4's who Phoenix would be wise in trading (Beasley especially, if someone wanted him.  What about a Beasley/Brown for Bargnani swap?)  Porter does everything well, and would fit in right away as a true 3 man.

What does the future look like?  It is uncertain.  The Suns have a pivotal offseason where they need to change a lot about the club.  Overpaid players like Beasley, Scola and Frye (Who is coming back from a heart issue) do not come off the books until after the 2014/15 season.  If the Suns build a defensive squad with some shooting involved (i.e. Memphis' plan) they could be contenders in a few years.  Until then, next year will be rough, and they should cross their fingers for Andrew Wiggins.


Monday, June 3, 2013

Game 7 Preview

Tonight Indiana will play Miami for the right to play San Antonio in the NBA finals.  A lot is on the line tonight.  Legacies?  Big 3?  Conspiracies?  Pacers?  Heat?

Not a lot changes tonight- the same starters are expected, and the same shot distribution should be expected.  LeBron was recently knocked by his teammates for shooting more- a rather ridiculous thought, right?  He is scoring 30 a game, while adding 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game.  Would you want Wade and Bosh, who are shooting very poorly at the moment, taking more shots than James?  (also, James is only taking 4 more shots per game- it's not like he has gone JR Smith on the Heat).  If Wade and Bosh feel the need to get theirs, and miss, Miami could be in trouble. Here are my keys to game 7:

1.  Win the turnover battle- Indiana knows this from earlier games in the series.  If a team turns the ball over more than 10-12 times per game, they are giving away far too many opportunities to score in transition.  Indiana especially needs to keep their TOs under 10.
2.  George vs. James- James is going to put up his usual stat line of 30/7/7.  Can Paul George match it?  If he scores more than 20, Indiana has a good shot to win.  If he has a poor outing, there may not be much scoring from the outside.  Hill can shoot, and Stephenson is streaky, but neither possess the overall floor game of George.  He must play well tonight.
3.  Points in the paint- Miami has been brutalized inside.  West and Hibbert have exposed Bosh inside, and Birdman only helps to an extent (having him back in game 7 will help A LOT).  If Miami can stay within 7 in the points in the paint battle, they will have a good chance of winning.

Overall this game is a toss-up.  If Indiana shoots well, Miami could fall.  If Miami gets easy baskets in transition, and LeBron gets a little support from the other big 2, Indiana should fall.  I would love to see Indiana beat Miami.  The "not 5, not 6" speech still leaves me wanting to see them lose.  Is it realistic?

The pick:  Miami 92 Indiana 90

State of the Cavaliers

The Cavs struck gold twice in 3 years by earning the top pick in this draft.  Will it matter?  The Cavs finished 3rd worst in the NBA, but their roster suggests a better winning percentage.  Kyrie Irving is regarded as a top ten PG, and future star, but he has not led his team to anything yet.  Anderson Varejao was playing great before his injury, and Tristan Thompson showed improvement as well.  They have a good young SG in Dion Waiters as well, their top choice from the 2012 draft.  The Cavs look to have a brighter future than many teams they finished behind this year.  If Irving, especially, can be healthy, this franchise could make the playoffs in the next 2 years.  Here is their depth going into the offseason:

1 Irving
2 Waiters
3 Gee
4 Thompson/Speights
5 Varejao/Zeller

Team Option on Miles, QO on Casspi and Ellington.  They are roughly 22 million dollars under the salary cap with 8 roster spots to fill. They have 4 draft picks: 1, 19, 31, 33.

Statistical Leaders from 2012/13:
Points: Irving (22.5)
Rebounds: Thompson (9.4)- But Varejao was averaging 14 per game before his injury
Assists: Irving (5.9)
Steals: Irving (1.5)
Blocks: Zeller (0.9)

Biggest Needs: SF, Post Depth, Guard Depth

Cleveland has good, young players, though health has been an issue.  Irving took the next step towards becoming a star, and yearly all-star, but he needs to up his assist totals to be mentioned in the same tier as Chris Paul and Deron Williams, to name a few.  Improving his supporting cast, and adding shooters, is important for Irving's continued development.  Thompson finished the season an 11/9 player.  If he continues his growth, he will have been a good pick at 4- a reach (so I thought) on draft day.  Varejao is mentioned in the same breath as Joakim Noah, when healthy.  Waiters looks like a 6th man (another reach on draft day, in my opinion) and Gee is a solid contributor off the bench.  Adding depth is important.

Free Agent fits:
Josh Smith:  Smith fits the mold of a defensive player who can play the 3 or 4.  They might have to overpay to get him in Cleveland, but he could help vault the team into the playoff picture for next year.  He would play second fiddle to Irving, but he would most likely see similar production as he saw in Atlanta.

JJ Redick:  Redick fills the need of a shooter who can play above average defense.  He would stretch the floor for Irving and Varejao, and provide an accurate and steady option at the two.  He likely would not cost too much either

Jarrett Jack:  The Cavs could use a combo guard to spare Irving from playing long minutes, but also play with him as well.  Enter Jack.  The Warriors have a tighter cap situation, and he could be stolen for a slightly excessive offer.  A three guard unit of Irving, Waiters and Jack would be solid.

Draft fits:
Pick 1:
Nerlens Noel- The Cavs have Varejao as a solid defensive center, and can add Noel as a high motor shot blocker who has lots of potential.  Is he raw?  Yes he is.  But he is the best player in the draft, and should become a Cavalier.

Otto Porter- Porter is #4 on my board, but is the only other player who could go #1.  SF is the weakest spot in their starting rotation, and Porter is a player who would fit in nicely.  He could be a Danny Granger type scorer who plays a bit more defense if he fulfills his potential.

Pick 19:
Sergey Karasev- Karasev is a sweet shooting 3 man from Russia.  He is a smart player, along the lines of a Rudy Fernandez, but less of a ball handler.  Shooting is a big need for Cleveland, and Karasev would be a good addition.

Giannis Antetokoumpo- The mystery man from Greece could go here to Cleveland.  Despite finishing 3rd worst, the Cavs could be in a position to use a pick to stash Antetokoumpo overseas for a few years.  His physical attributes are impressive, and he has dominated the lower levels of Greek basketball (emphasis on the lower.)  He could be a future starter or a bust, but Cleveland can afford to take the risk.

2nd round picks:
Nemanja Nedovic- Nedovic is a high flying combo guard from Serbia who I would take in the first round.  Many boards have him slated as a second round pick, which could make him the steal of the draft.  He needs to improve his ball handling and shooting stroke, but he has as much potential as many guys who will go in round 1.

CJ Leslie- Leslie is another player who could go in round 1.  He is a high energy, athletic player who can play both forward positions.  If he can add a mid-range jump shot to his game, he could find himself in a rotation for a long time.

What does the future look like?  It is bright.  Mike Brown was re-hired as the head coach (Brian Shaw would have been a better hire...), and Kyrie Irving should become a star.  I fully expect the Cavs to make the playoffs in two years, and potentially grab the 7 or 8 seed next year.  Forget LeBron coming back- it is not going to happen.  If they stay the course they are currently on, and can avoid free agent decisions that will cripple the team for the next 4 years (see:  Pistons:  Gordon and Villanueva), there is no reason to think the team won't be successful.


Saturday, June 1, 2013

State of the Bobcats

The Bobcats finished above the Magic in the standings, but have farther to go towards becoming a playoff contender.  Today, ESPN came out with their annual "future" power rankings- rate franchises based off of current players, coaches, management, cap space and draft potential- and Charlotte came in last place again.  Looking at the Bobcats' roster, it makes sense.  Here is their depth going into the offseason:

1 Walker/Sessions
2 Gordon
3 Kidd-Gilchrist/Taylor
4 Thomas
5 Biyombo/Haywood

In addition, they can place qualifying offers on Gerald Henderson and BJ Mullens.
Other FAs:  Diop, McRoberts, Williams

They are roughly 15 million dollars under the salary cap without counting potential qualifying offers to Henderson and Mullens.

Last season's statistical leaders:
Points: Walker (17.7)
Rebounds: Biyombo (7.3)
Assists: Walker (5.7)
Steals: Walker (2.0)
Blocks: Biyombo (1.8)


Biggest Needs:  PF, C, SG

Charlotte's 2 brightest futures lie in Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  Walker has proven he can score at the NBA level, albeit not in the most efficient manner.  MKG showed his great potential, and could be a jump shot away from becoming an All-Star in 4 years.  Outside of those two, there is not much to be excited about on this roster.  Jeff Taylor is cheap, and is a good defender.  Ben Gordon was awful, but one more year of him results in an eventual first round pick from Detroit (they are owed a lottery protected first from Portland as soon as next year too).  Here are some options for free agents that could help:

Josh Smith- Maybe Smith cares more about money than winning. Charlotte could offer Smith a bigger contract than anyone else could potentially offer (outside of ATL), and he would fit into a core of Walker, MKG and even Biyombo that plays solid defense.  Smith could be the go-to guy, even if his game does not back that up.  Would you be excited about a core of Walker/MKG/Smith?  Maybe.  Add in a good value from pick 4 and they could have a playoff contender in 2 years.

Andrew Bynum- For similar logic as Smith, no one wants to give Bynum a huge contract.  He is a MAJOR risk- and his contract would have to reflect that.  Charlotte is not likely to win lots next year anyways- maybe they offer a one year lucrative deal with a team option for year two.  It's risky, but Michael Jordan is also in charge, so anything could happen.

Paul Millsap- Millsap would be a great value add to Charlotte.  He rebounds and scores well, and does not need to be a go to player.  For 4 years 36 million, they could snag him.  He is not a great defender, but he is competent enough with MKG and Biyombo next to him.

Draft options:
Alex Len- The Bobcats do not have a presence to go to in the low post.  Len has a high ceiling as an offensive big man, and could pair well as a target for Walker in a 2 man game.

Cody Zeller- Zeller has his skeptics, but I think he is in the same realm as the top prospects (there is a top 8 in this draft).  He could end up being a 7'0" David West or even Chris Bosh.  Zeller's offensive skill would help from day one.

Ben McLemore- The Bobcats need shooting.  Walker, Henderson and MKG are all streaky.  McLemore is a high flying shooter along the lines of a young Ray Allen.  If he develops a killer mentality, he could be an All-Star one day.

What does the future look like?  Bleak at the moment, but can only get better.  New HC Steve Clifford was a stellar hire, and the team does have money and a high draft choice to work with.  Cho is a very capable GM.  Building around Walker, MKG and their first round draft choice offers a very solid, albeit young, foundation.   Adding an impact free agent, and lots of depth, will help this team a lot.  They are 2-3 years away, but with the right approach could show promise that hasn't been seen since the team originally left for New Orleans.