Updated NBA Draft Big Board

Here is my updated Big Board rankings.  Just as a refresher, this is not a mock draft, rather a ranking of best players in the draft class.  Some players will declare and withdraw in the coming months, the board will be adjusted accordingly. 

With the Blazers' loss last night against Utah, it is becoming more apparent that playoffs are a long shot.  I have put a * next to players who present a good fit for Portland, whether they would be available for our pick (10-12 most likely) or not.

1.  Nerlens Noel*
2.  Ben McLemore*
3.  Shabazz Muhammad*
4.  Otto Porter*
5.  Trey Burke
6.  Marcus Smart
7.  Victor Oladipo*
8.  Alex Len*
9.  Cody Zeller*
10.  Anthony Bennett
11.  CJ McCollum*
12.  Gary Harris*
13.  Jeff Withey*
14.  Michael Carter-Williams
15.  Alex Poythress
16.  Russ Smith*
17.  Allan Crabbe*
18.  Kelly Olynyk*
19.  Isaiah Austin*
20.  Archie Goodwin
21.  Willie Cauley-Stein
22.  Rudy Gobert*
23.  Mason Plumlee*
24.  Dario Saric*
25.  Giannis Adetokunbo*
26.  Sergey Karasev*
27.  Glenn Robinson III
28.  Nemanja Nedovic*
29.  Jamaal Franklin
30.  Mouhammadou Jaiteh*

Next 5: Gorgui Dieng, Andre Roberson, James McAdoo, CJ Leslie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Sweet 16, Day 2

Yesterday, there were some great games, and I picked 1-3 yesterday.  Arizona nearly pulled off a close win (as I predicted), but LaQuinton Ross hit a huge three to save the day for the Buckeyes.  Marquette finally realized they were in the NCAA tournament, and beat Miami pretty convincingly.  Davidson is shaking their heads.  Indiana let me down.  Michael Carter-Williams made the Hoosier guards look silly, and Zeller hardly looked like the lottery pick he is protected to be.  He is a good complimentary player at the next level, but can he be more?  Finally, Wichita State's inside game, led by Early and Hall, was too much to handle for LaSalle.  That was the one pick I was correct on yesterday.  Let's hope this preview has a higher success rate:

- Oregon vs. Louisville:  The Ducks should be happy about being a 12 seed, and not a 7-9.  Think about it, sure they had a slightly tougher round 1 opponent, but in round 2 they avoided playing a 1 or a 2 seed.  If they had switched spots with Missouri, they would have played Louisville last round.  Because they were a 12, they had an easier run to the Sweet 16.  This is true for every team in this scenario.  Would you rather be a 9 seed, or an 11?  I'll take the 11 if I want to make it farther.  This Oregon squad should not be overlooked.  Freshman Lloyd, Artis, and Dotson have been playing incredible team basketball, with good skill on the inside from Woods and Kazemi, who might have the best motor in the tournament.  If the Ducks can score outside, and avoid turning the ball over against the ball pressure Siva, Smith and Ware will apply, they have a great chance of pulling this off.  Louisville has played really well thus far.  Russ Smith is the MVP of the tournament so far, and they have been forcing turnovers left and right.  Colorado State is a very good rebounding team, which will have prepared the inside game for Louisville for Oregon's tendency to crash the boards.  Siva and Smith are experienced, and Gieng and Bohanan have the ability to dominate inside. Oregon has had a great run, but I don't see how they keep up.  Prediction:  Louisville 78 Oregon 66

- Michigan vs. Kansas:  Michigan has looked closer to the team they were in the top 5 in this tournament than the team that faltered down the stretch, leading to a 4 seed and not a 2.  Trey Burke has had issues with turnovers, but has scored the ball very well, and controlled the pace of the game well.  Kansas does not have a pure point guard, and could have trouble containing Burke.  Michigan will also need big games from Hardaway and Stauskas to pull off the upset.  Kansas has been an enigma thus far.  Their best player, widely considered to be a contender to go #1 in the draft (Ben McLemore) has been pathetic thus far, to state it nicely.  He seems far too content to be a complimentary player, but the Jayhawks are at their best when McLemore is one of their top scorers, instead of going 2-5 from the field.  That said, Withey has been playing fantastic.  In a draft depleted of top centers (and Len and Zellers stocks falling), he could rise all the way to the lottery if he can keep up his stellar play.  If McLemore does not play well again, Releford, Johnson and Young have to be able to pick up the slack.  I like Kansas, but it would not shock me at all if Michigan pulls this off.  Prediction:  Kansas 73 Michigan 70

- Michigan State vs. Duke:  This is a coaching battle.  Izzo and Krzyzewski have 32 combined sweet 16 appearances.  WOW!  Michigan State's squad relies on interior touches from Derrick Nix and Adrian Payne, and has good shooters around, especially Gary Harris, a potential lottery pick in his own right.  Keith Appling is a fantastic college point guard, and has been in games like this before.  The Dukies are led by energy player Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry.  Duke's frontcourt is very athletic.  Who will Nix have to guard?  Kelly?  Kelly has been the key for Duke, as their key losses, up until Maryland in the ACC tournament, occurred without him.  Sulaimon is a fantastic freshman, and could be a lottery pick in the 2014 draft, when he can team with Jabari Parker to make another deep tournament run.  For this game, I like Sparty's ability to score in the half court, and their ability to defend the perimeter.  Prediction:  Michigan State 68 Duke 64

- Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida:  Nobody saw this run coming from FGCU, and if they did it was sheer luck.  Led by Sherwood Brown on the wing, the Eagles have made highlight reels by throwing alley-oop after alley-oop.  They have made some spectacular plays.  If FGCU wants to keep their magical run up, they will have to hit outside shots, and score in the halfcourt against a Florida squad that is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  The Gators were upset in the SEC final against Ole Miss, which could have led to their 3 seed line, instead of 2.  The Gators are balanced offensively, though struggle when their guards force threes, which if FGCU makes a run, could happen today.  Erik Murphy is one of the best stretch 4's in the country, which could pose a match-up problem for the Eagles.  Florida Gulf Coast has been one of the greatest stories of the year, but I don't see much chance that they beat Florida today.  I hope they prove me wrong.  Prediction:  Florida 72 Florida Gulf-Coast 55

NBA Prospect of the Day: Ben McLemore- If he wants to be the number one pick, he has to perform well against Michigan today.  Questions about his drive to be great, and his mental toughness, could come out if he does not have a good game today.  If he scores 20 points, and does it efficiently while getting to the line, McLemore will stay a highly touted prospect.

Best chance of an upset?  Michigan State over Duke (In a 2-3 match-up, is there really much of an upset?  I'll take Michigan over Kansas as the #2 chance)

Getting to a final four is difficult.  Teams have got to take care of business today.  #heart

NFL Mock Draft- Post Combine/FA

1	1	Kansas City- Luke Joekel OT/Texas A&M
2	2	Jacksonville- Dion Jordan OLB/Oregon
3	3	Oakland- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia
4	4	Philadelphia- Eric Fisher OT/C. Michigan
5	5	Detroit- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama
6	6	Cleveland- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU
7	7	Arizona- Lane Johnson OT/Arizona
8	8	Buffalo- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia
9	9	New York Jets- Sharif Floyd DT/Florida
10	10	Tennessee- Chance Warmack OG/Alabama
11	11	San Diego- Jonathan Cooper OG/North Carolina
12	12	Miami- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington
13	13	Tampa Bay- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah
14	14	Carolina- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri
15	15	New Orleans- Barkevious Mingo DE/LSU
16	16	St. Louis- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee
17	17	Pittsburgh- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia
18	18	Dallas- Alec Ogletree ILB/Georgia
19	19	New York Giants- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama
20	20	Chicago- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame
21	21	Cincinnati- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State
22	22	St. Louis (from Washington)- Kenny Vaccaro S/Texas
23	23	Minnesota- Keenan Allen WR/Cal
24	24	Indianapolis- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
25	25	Minnesota (from Seattle)- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame
26	26	Green Bay- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M
27	27	Houston- DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson
28	28	Denver- Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB/Connecticut
29	29	New England- Margus Hunt DL/SMU
30	30	Atlanta- Sylvester Williams DT/UNC
31	31	San Francisco- Matt Elam S/Florida
32	32	Baltimore- Robert Woods WR/USC
ROUND 2
Pick	Overall pick
1	33	Jacksonville- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State
2	34	San Francisco (from Kansas City)- Datone Jones DE/UCLA
3	35	Philadelphia- EJ Manuel QB/Florida State
4	36	Detroit- Justin Pugh G/T- Syracuse
5	37	Cincinnati (from Oakland)- Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama
6	38	Arizona- Matt Barkley QB/USC
7		Cleveland (2012 supplemental draft)
8	39	New York Jets- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee
9	40	Tennessee- John Jenkins DT/Georgia
10	41	Buffalo- Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse
11	42	Miami- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford
12	43	Tampa Bay- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State
13	44	Carolina- Quinton Patton WR/La. Tech
14		New Orleans (forfeited)
15	45	San Diego- Sio Moore OLB/Connecticut
16	46	St. Louis- Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
17	47	Dallas- Kevin Minter ILB/LSU
18	48	Pittsburgh- Monte Ball RB/Wisconsin
19	49	New York Giants- Alex Okafor DE/Texas
20	50	Chicago- Terron Armstead OT/Ark. Pine Bluff
21	51	Washington- Tank Carradine DE/Florida State
22	52	Minnesota- Jesse Williams DT/Alabama
23	53	Cincinnati- Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida International
24	54	Miami (from Indianapolis)- Arthur Brown ILB/Kansas State
25	55	Green Bay- DJ Swearinger S/South Carolina
26	56	Seattle- Dallas Thomas G-T/Tennessee
27	57	Houston- DJ Hayden CB/Houston
28	58	Denver- Bennie Logan DT/LSU
29	59	New England- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor
30	60	Atlanta- Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State
31	61	San Francisco- Larry Warford OG/Kentucky
32	62	Baltimore- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
ROUND 3
Pick	Overall pick	Team
1	63	Kansas City- Jamie Collins OLB/Southern Miss
2	64	Jacksonville- Mike Glennon QB/NC State
3	65	Detroit- Kyle Long G-T/Oregon
4	66	Oakland- Jordan Poyer CB/Oregon State
5	67	Philadelphia- Darius Slay CB/Mississippi State
6	68	Cleveland- Tyler Bray QB/Tennessee
7	69	Arizona- Markus Wheaton WR/Oregon State
8	70	Tennessee- Aaron Dobson WR/Marshall
9	71	Buffalo- David Amerson CB-S/NC State
10	72	New York Jets- Tyler Wilson QB/Arkansas
11	73	Tampa Bay- Stedman Bailey WR/West Virginia
12	74	San Francisco (from Carolina)- Jordan Reed TE/Florida
13	75	New Orleans- Kiko Alonso ILB/Oregon
14	76	San Diego- Jonathan Franklin RB/UCLA
15	77	Miami- Giovani Bernard RB/UNC
16	78	St. Louis- Andre Ellington RB/Clemson
17	79	Pittsburgh- Eric Reid S/LSU
18	80	Dallas- Oday Aboushi OG-OT/Virginia
19	81	New York Giants- Robert Alford CB/SE Louisiana
20	82	Miami (from Chicago)- Khaseem Greene OLB/Rutgers
21	83	Minnesota- Corey Lemonieur DE/Auburn
22	84	Cincinnati- Landry Jones QB/Oklahoma
23	85	Washington- Ryan Swope WR/Texas A&M
24	86	Indianapolis- Brian Winters OG/Kent State
25	87	Seattle- Brandon Williams DT/Missouri Southern
26	88	Green Bay- Stepfan Taylor RB/Stanford
27	89	Houston- Montori Hughes DT/Tennessee-Martin
28	90	Denver- Leveon Bell RB/Michigan State
29	91	New England- Brennan Williams OT/North Carolina
30	92	Atlanta- Gavin Escobar TE/San Diego State
31	93	San Francisco- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
32	94	Baltimore- Kevin Reddick ILB/North Carolina
33	95	Houston (Comp)- Travis Frederick OC/Wisconsin
34	96	Kansas City (Comp)- Kenjon Barner RB/Oregon
35	97	Tennessee (Comp)- Vance McDonald TE/Rice

Sweet 16!

There has been a few days since our last tournament games, and time has gone by slowly.  I cannot wait for the games today, as the level of competition will be greater than the first round (at least ideally...)  Here are my thoughts/predictions for today's action:

-Marquette vs. Miami:  Marquette barely squeaked by in games against Davidson and Butler.  In both games, it appeared as if Marquette was about to lose, but the team, led by Vander Blue, hit clutch shot after clutch shot and picked up some needed defensive stops.  Miami was tested by Illinois, and could do well defending Blue, as he compares somewhat similarly to Brandon Paul.  The Illini destroyed the 'Canes on the glass, which has to be improved if Miami wants to move on.  At the end of the game, I expect Shane Larkin to prove too difficult for Marquette to guard, and Miami advances to the sweet 16.  Prediction:  Miami 69 Marquette 63

-Arizona vs. Ohio State:  It would appear that the winner of this game has the best shot of any team in the tournament to make the final four, as the winner faces the winner of LaSalle vs. Wichita State (more on this game later).  Ohio State needed a buzzer beating 3 by Aaron Craft to survive Iowa State, though Craft did not have a good game approaching that three.  Arizona has athletic guards who can defend the point well, so Craft needs to be tough and avoid turning the ball over today.  DeShaun Thomas has to score efficiently.  Arizona has not had a "go-to" guy all season, but they play as a team very well.  Solomon Hill is a match-up nightmare for this Ohio State squad, and if Lyons/Johnson make shots, Arizona has a great chance of advancing.  When I filled out my bracket, I picked Ohio State to the final four, but I really like Arizona's chances to pull of the upset in the crazy West regional.  Prediction:  Arizona 75 Ohio State 74

-Indiana vs. Syracuse:  This game boasts the greatest number of NBA prospects for today's games, with Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo and Michael Carter Williams as potential lottery picks.  Indiana had a scare against Temple, and will have to hit outside shots to break Syracuse's zone today.  Syracuse faces a daunting task against Indiana, as they may put Oladipo on MCW.  The big keys for Syracuse will be to avoid turning the ball over, as Indiana is best in transition, and to win the battle of the boards.  I think Indiana will be too much for Syracuse, with Hulls and Watford spacing that zone too much.  Prediction:  Indiana 80 Syracuse 65

-LaSalle vs. Wichita State:  These teams have played very well to make the Sweet 16, and one will be rewarded with an Elite 8 berth.  LaSalle has played well in the tournament after a strong Atlantic 10 season that included wins over VCU and Butler, and upset #4 seed Kansas State in round two.  This team excels rebounding the ball, and can score in a variety of ways.  As a 13 seed, and one of the first four, their story mirrors VCU's magical run to the Final Four.  Maybe they have magic left in them?  Wichita State is a cinderella in their own right, a 9 seed who knocked off Gonzaga.  Malcom Armstead, the transfer from Oregon, is the leader of this team, and will have to have another big game to beat the Explorers.  Proficient from the three point line, Wichita State will have to hit shots to win, as I think they will in the last minute.  Prediction:  Wichita State 75 LaSalle 72

Prospect of the Day to Watch:  Cody Zeller- His stock has been slipping, and he hasn't had a big tournament game to show he is worthy of a top ten selection.  Syracuse has a physical front line, but nothing he shouldn't be able to handle.  A 20/10 game would do wonders for Zeller's draft stock; watch him closely today.

Best upset chance: Arizona

Maybe a team can emerge as a favorite today.  The only way to find out is to watch!  Tune in at 4pm (West Coast time)  Follow @ZRey12 on twitter for some analysis during gameplay!

Day 2, Round 2

Day 2 of the second third round is about to tip off with Ohio State and Iowa State.  There are compelling games left today, but first, here were my impressions about yesterday's games:

- The West region got crazier.  Gonzaga went down to 9 seed Wichita State, joining the 3, 4, 5 and even 7 and 8 seeds in getting upset.  The sweet 16 will feature Wichita State facing the winner of a 12/13 matchup:  Ole Miss vs. LaSalle.  This means a 9 seed or lower will make the elite 8.  Arizona, the 6, has already advanced to the 16, and will play the winner of today's first game in Ohio State vs. Iowa State.  I fully expect Ohio State to make the final four, as their path will be considerably easier than many top teams, though there is too much uncertainty to be absolutely confident.  Maybe Arizona pulls out a final four berth.  Maybe Wichita State keeps rolling.  Maybe Marshall Henderson leads his team deep, in what would undoubtedly be the story of the tournament.  2 years ago VCU earned an at large bid in the first four, and went to the final four.  A few years before that, George Mason went to the final four as an 11 seed.  Both of these teams were said to be "bubble teams" going in.  Would it shock me if Ole Miss had a story similar?  Not at all...

- Michigan looks good.  Virginia Commonwealth had been playing some fantastic basketball, and beat Akron in their first game by 44.  They looked like a force to be reckoned with in this tournament.  In stepped the Wolverines, led by Trey Burke and Mitch McGary, who looks like a Plumlee clone, and decisively took out the Rams.  Kansas should not be happy about their draw of Michigan, should they advance past North Carolina.

- The comically underseeded Ducks keep rolling, and have earned a match-up with Louisville in Indianapolis.  The Ducks have helped give some credibility, along with Arizona and Cal, back to the Pac-12, who had teams underseeded across the tournament.  Do I expect them to beat Louisville?  Absolutely not, as Louisville is the best team in the country.  Do I expect them to at least make it interesting?  Yeah I do.  Look for Louisville to pull away late and advance by 12-15.

- Speaking of Louisville, Russ Smith was absolutely Russdiculous.  Smith scored an efficient 27, scoring at the rim, from three, and the line.  He coupled it with great defense too.  I am very impressed by Smith, and, as you may have read previously here, I would draft him in the first round.  He looks like a Lou Williams clone at the next level.  The biggest issues about Smith are his outside jump shot and decision making, both of which Williams struggled with when entering the league.  He figured it out, and is not one of the top 6th man combo guards in the league.  I expect great things out of Smith, and would like Portland to find a way to get him should he declare before his junior year.  In the tournament, watch out for Louisville.  They are crazy deep, and have Smith and Siva running the show.  I still like them to take it all.

- Marquette barely advanced again, in a tightly contested game against perennial tournament contender Butler.  After similar circumstances against against Davidson, they will now get the winner of the 7th seed SDSU and 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast.  Despite less-than-stellar showings, one would have to like Marquette's chances to keep advancing.

-NBA prospects to watch today:
Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller/Indiana- They should dominate against Temple.  Zeller especially should have a big day.
Doug McDermott/Creighton- McDermott is a 2nd round candidate at this point.  With a big game against Duke, he could make scouts look at him a little harder.
Brandon Paul/Illinois- Paul has skills to make the next level, but is maddeningly inconsistent.  A big game, and upset, against Miami could push him back into late round-1 consideration.
Jamaal Franklin/San Diego State- His motor may be tops in the country.  If he can score in a plethora of ways, including an outside jump shot, he could become a first round lock.
Seniors- I've said it before, but seniors with big performances in the tournament rise on draft day.  Who is this year's Kyle O'Quinn?

- Finally, Ben Howland has been fired from UCLA after a ten year run, including 3 final fours.  He will get another job, but his vacancy has to be considered #1 in the country.  Undoubtedly, Shaka Smart's (VCU) and Brad Stevens' (Butler) names will come up as candidates.  Both have created stellar programs, and, at UCLA, could run their systems with fantastic recruits.  The job will be tempting, though the niche both have created at their respective schools will be hard to leave.  Both have made a final four (2 in Stevens' case), and continually make the tournament.  If I am the AD at UCLA, these two have to be my top candidates, but if I am Smart or Stevens, I think long and hard about this choice.  It could be a job similar to what Coach K and Jim Boeheim have in Duke and Syracuse, where they have lasted 30+ years.  Likewise, many coaches have not found success at top programs.  I think Smart and Stevens are two of the top coaches in the country, and will find fantastic success at UCLA, should they choose.  It will be a tough choice.

- Best chance of an upset today:  Minnesota over Florida.

Notes for Round 2 of the Tourney

- I know the game tips off right about now, but I fully expect the VCU/Michigan game to be the best game of the day.  Burke and Hardaway are two great college guards, and could handle the havoc defense.  If they can't, and there is a significant difference if field goal percentage (both very realistic) then VCU could win.  I like VCU 82-77.

- How about those upsets?!?  Fla. GC, Harvard and LaSalle, plus a bunch of 12 seeds.  I am very impressed by the play of the underseeded teams.  Oregon and Cal have great chances to move on, and Ole Miss matchup with LaSalle, guaranteeing that a double digit seed makes the sweet 16.  His shot selection is downright scary, but Marshal Henderson will be the X-Factor.

- Not a great few days for top 5 draft picks.  Marcus Smart couldn't take over against Oregon.  Ben McLemore was very passive against Western Kentucky.  Shabazz Muhammad shot poorly, and lied about his age (turns out he is 20, not 19- This will cost him his #1 ranking on the board, dropping him to 3.  If McLemore can play well, he will be #1.  If not, Noel is the guy.)  Otto Porter showed glimpses of greatness, though his Hoya squad lost to #15 Fla. Gulf Coast.  Anthony Bennett had a double double, but looked overmatched at times.  Zeller and Oladipo were solid, but against a 16 seed, they should be.  Keep an eye on McLemore especially moving forward.  If he can show he can be dominant, watch out.  If not, look for VCU/Michigan (I picked VCU) to upset Kansas at the round of 16.

- Is it too much to ask for a buzzer beater?  There was potential, but all were missed.  Vander Blue had a clutch lay-in with a second to go to finish off Davidson's collapse, and there were a flurry of other chances missed.  Expect one or two in the next few days- I'll say the best chance will be Allan Crabbe against Syracuse.

- Brackets-be-damned, this is the best time of the year.  Root for your team, the underdogs, and get pumped about March MADNESS.  I love it, and you can guarantee I will be a couch potato for the next few days.  That said, my bracket is in the 79th percentile on ESPN after round one- My final four of Louisville, Ohio State, VCU and Indiana are all alive, for now.

NBA Draft Prospects in NCAA Tournament

In the NCAA tournament, there are many prospects that could increase their draft status (or hurt too).  These players all need good showings to increase their draft standing:

Shabazz Muhammad- Muhammad is still considered by Blazer Blog to be the best NBA draft prospect this year, but the gap has closed significantly, and a big tournament from Ben McLemore could boost him to the number 1 spot.  Muhammad's UCLA squat is widely picked to be upset by Minnesota in the second round (though we all know it's the first round...), but UCLA could win that game if Shabazz shows up to play.  I like UCLA to get to the sweet 16, but without Muhammad playing great basketball, like he is capable of, UCLA will lose, and his draft stock will fall.

Ben McLemore- McLemore is widely considered the top draft prospect.  #2 on my board, a big tournament could vault him into the top spot for good.  In order for Kansas to go far in the tournament, McLemore has to be the go to guy.

Allan Crabbe- Crabbe reminds me of Klay Thompson, and I think he could go as high as the late lottery.  Currently #16 on my board, I am ahead of the curve for Crabbe.  A big tournament, including an upset of UNLV in their first game, will help Crabbe earn a first round promise he will likely need to leave Cal a year early.  Expect a 25 point outing from Crabbe in Cal's upset of UNLV.

Russ Smith- Smith is an enigma, but has a lot of NBA talent given his quickness, on-ball defense and ball handling.  His decision making is poor.  He could be a 6th man in the NBA, or he could be at the end of a bench like Tyshawn Taylor is in Brooklyn.  A big tournament, characterized by efficient scoring and his usual defense, will greatly enhance his stock around the league (He is #22 on my board)

Kelly Olynyk- Gonzaga is a puzzle as a #1 seed.  Some see a title contender, others see an early exit.  I think the Zags have the potential to make the final 4, and, Kelly Olynyk will have to play exceptional to lead the Zags to a title.  Helping the Zags win on a national scale is big for Olynyk (#26 on my board), and he could end up being a lottery pick.

Mike Muscala- The center from Bucknell is poised for a big tournament, though they have a tough draw against Butler in round 1.  Muscala should exploit Andrew Smith inside and outside and have a big game (I'll predict 26 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks), but I am not sure it will be enough.  I'll take Butler 64-63, but one big game in the tournament could life Muscala to first round consideration.

Seniors everywhere- Want to get drafted in the second round?  Games at the PIT will help, the combine will help, but big games in the tournament are not forgotten easily.  The big dance single-handedly made Brian Zoubek a prospect and Nolan Smith a first round pick.  Similar things could be said about Josh Harrelson getting drafted.  This is a big chance to make a big impression.  This year's best candidates to break out in the tourney:  Kenny Kadji/Miami, Brandon Paul/Illinois, Derrick Nix/Michigan State, Cashmere Wright/Cincinnati, Matthew Dellavedova/St. Mary's

Regular Season College Basketball Review

As I review the NCAA season, I think it is important not to be biased by the results of the NCAA tournament.  There could be glory and goats a plenty, draft stocks improved and destroyed, coaches who become legends or possibly lose their jobs.  There is so much parity in the NCAA tournament, it deserves a review of its own.  This review focuses on the regular season:

Blazer Blog's Preseason Top Ten:
1 Louisville- Got this one spot on.  Ended #1, and my pick to win the tournament.
2 Kentucky- Missed this one badly.  With Noel, I think they'd be a dangerous tournament team, but, at the same time, nowhere near deserving a #2 ranking.
3 Indiana- Solid pick, the 3rd #1 seed.
4 Syracuse- Underachieved at the end of the year, but a dangerous tourney team.
5 UCLA- Never did achieve a great ranking, though did win the Pac-12 (as predicted here!)
6 Kansas- I was all aboard the Elijah Johnson bandwagon for a breakout year.  I was right that Kansas would be great, with a POY candidate, but it was McLemore who emerged.
7 NC State- Offensively a fun team to watch.  Defensively, makes me cringe.  Had big wins and terrible losses.
8 Ohio State- Ohio State should make a final four run.  Craft and Thomas have been solid all year.
9 Arizona- Didn't achieve greatness over the second half of the year, got a lower seed than they should have received.
10 UNLV- The injury to Moser was devastating, as he still isn't the same player.  Bennett has been great, but he needs more.

Preseason All-America picks:
G- Peyton Siva/Louisville
G- Isaiah Canaan/Murray State
F- Shabazz Muhammad (if eligible)
F- James McAdoo/UNC
C- Cody Zeller/Indiana

Postseason All-America picks:
G- Trey Burke G/Michigan
G- Ben McLemore G/Kansas
G- Russ Smith G/Louisville

G- Victor Oladipo G/Indiana
F- Kelly Olynyk F/Gonzaga

Coach of the year:  Jim Crews/St. Louis- An amazing story, filling in for the deceased Rick Majerus.  St. Louis plays defense admirably and has upperclassmen at all positions.  An awesome coaching job.

Guards led the way this year, which is why the position gets 4 first team All-American nods from Blazer Blog.  The first team from preseason disappointed majorly.  Only Zeller would still get a nod on a lower All-American team.

End of year top ten:
1 Louisville
2 Gonzaga
3 Indiana
4 Kansas
5 Miami
6 Duke
7 Ohio State
8 Georgetown
9 St. Louis
10 Michigan State

Looking back, I did a decent job of projecting the season.  Some injuries derailed the chances of some teams I thought would do well, and Kentucky was a blatant miss on my part (For the record they should be great again next year- grain of salt not needed- look up Andrew Wiggins on youtube and you'll see why)

Final Note- I am still disgusted at the elimination of the Big East.  Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh all felt the need to go to the ACC and eliminate the greatest basketball conference over the last 10 years.  The ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big-12 have all had impressive years, but the Big East has been the leading conference in sending teams to the dance every year.  Games like the 7OT game vs Syracuse and UConn in the Big East tournament will be missed.  No more McNamara moments.  It is all a damn shame in my opinion.  The new Big East- the Catholic 7 + Xavier, Butler and Creighton- will still be successful, and a power conference in its own right, though the conference could be even better by allowing UConn, Cincinnati and South Florida to remain in the conference.  Temple could potentially be poached from the A-10, along with VCU and St. Louis, to create a still dominant 16-team conference.  Unable to happen, this year's NCAA tournament is the swan song for the Big East, one which I anticipate Louisville winning (A Big East member).  Football can be blamed to an extent for all of the conference realignment, though men's college basketball also makes a lot of money too.  Neglecting big money for bigger money is hurting college athletics.  Within 10 years it would not surprise me to see 4 power conferences of 16-20 teams- The ACC, (new Big East), Big Ten and Pac-12/Big 12.  Should it happen?  NO NO NO NO NOOOOOOO!  I can't say it adamantly enough.  Will it?  That's the 64 thousand dollar question I don't want the answer to.

The Bracket Is Out! My thoughts?

The best time of the year in sports is finally here:  The bracket is out.  Commence filling out the brackets right away!  Here are my quick thoughts on how the bracket looks:

- Where is the love for the Pac-12?  I thought the conference's seeds were lower than expected, considering Arizona, UCLA and especially Oregon.  I though the Pac-12 conference win, coupled with a 2nd place finish in the conference would get them on a 7-9 line, not a 12.  Their non-conference schedule wasn't great, but they did win at UNLV.  A 12 seed shows that Oregon was on the bubble, which nearly no one (Myself included) thought.

- No love for the SEC either, though warranted.  Ole Miss squeaked in by winning the conference tournament, but Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee are all bound for the NIT.  After all of these teams played an AWFUL non-conference slate, I cannot say I am surprised (though I did expect A LOT more from Kentucky).

- The Midwest and South regionals are the toughest.  The East is the easiest.  Expect more upsets than usual though.  Bucknell, Belmont, Davidson, Montana and South Dakota State will all be tough outs for high ranked teams.

- Final Four Prediction:
• Louisville (winner)
• VCU
• Indiana
• Ohio State

Overall, I cannot wait for Thursday (and Tuesday to an extent, but let's be serious these are play-in games not round one.)

A Shot at Bracketology:

Bracketology:  The science of putting together the NCAA tournament.  Many factors go into play involving seeding, but also involving the location they send teams to.  This is my shot at it:

Number 1 seeds: Louisville (Midwest) Gonzaga (West) Indiana (East) Kansas (South)

Locations for 1st round (After first 4 in Dayton): Philadelphia, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dayton, Lexington, San Jose, Auburn Hills, Kansas City

*Note- Some results tomorrow could change some seeds.  Games are:

1. Ohio State vs. Wisconsin- Impact of Results:  Ohio State 2-3 seed, Wisconsin 3-4 seed
2. Florida vs. Ole Miss- Impact of Results:  Florida 2-3 seed, Ole Miss- off of bubble, 11-12 seed
3. Miami vs. UNC- Miami: Impact of Results:  2-3 seed, UNC 6-8 seed
4. VCU vs. St. Louis- Impact of Results:  Very little,  St. Louis- 5-6, VCU 5-6

Midwest:
1 Louisville
16 Albany/Liberty

8 Butler
9 Colorado

5 UCLA
12 Boise State/Ole Miss

4 Marquette
13 Akron

6 Pittsburgh
11 Oklahoma

3 Michigan State
14 New Mexico State

7 UNLV
10 Wichita State

2 Georgetown
15 Pacific


West
1 Gonzaga
16 James Madison

8 Colorado State
9 NC State

5 Oklahoma State
12 Davidson

4 Wisconsin
13 South Dakota State

6 Creighton
11 Iowa State

3 Florida
14 Harvard

7 North Carolina
10 Villanova

2 Ohio State
15 Florida Gulf Coast

East
1 Indiana
16 Southern U

8 Missouri
9 Cincinnati

5 Arizona
12 LaSalle/Virginia

4 Kansas State
13 Bucknell

6 Virginia Commonwealth
11 Minnesota

3 New Mexico
14 Iona

7 Notre Dame
10 Illinois

2 Miami (FL)
15 Montana

South
1 Kansas
16 Morgan State/LIU Brooklyn

8 San Diego State
9 California

5 Saint Louis
12 Belmont

4 Syracuse
13 Valparaiso

6 Oregon
11 St. Mary's

3 Michigan
14 Stephen F. Austin

7 Memphis
10 Temple

2 Duke
15 Western Kentucky


First Five Out:  Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Alabama, Tennessee, Southern Miss

For predictions, check back after official bracket has been released.  Watch @ 3pm on CBS/ESPN.  CBS will have better commentary w/Gottlieb and Davis + Gumbel, so given the choice watch that one.

NCAA Tourney Pick-Em

Think you know more than me about college basketball?  Join Blazer Blog's NCAA Tourney Pick-Em on ESPN.com:

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=41939&entryID=469869

It is free to play!  Winning bracket gets a special shoutout on the blog!

Post any questions on twitter @ZRey12, or in the comments section.

NCAA Tournament Notes- Teams to watch

The NCAA bracket (Long awaited, of course) comes out tomorrow, with the next 48 hours devoted to analysis of match-ups, both logical and ridiculous.  Both arguments should be heard, though, as a select few looked like geniuses last year for picking Lehigh and Norfolk State (not really:  Luck.)  In this year's tournament, who will be some lower seeded teams to make some deep runs?
     *These teams should all be a 4-5 or less.

Wisconsin- Wisconsin may be playing their way into a higher seed, as they are playing fantastic basketball right now.  Having knocked off both Michigan and Indiana on back to back days, many teams will be afraid of the Badgers.  If they stick on the 4 line (or 5 perhaps), expect a 1 seed to be very wary in the round of 16.

Virginia Commonwealth- A wise girl once told me never to pick against Shaka Smart in the first few rounds.  This year especially, she is right.  The Rams force an incredible amount of turnovers and hit a lot of 3s.  The Rams made an unlikely run to the final four a few years ago, and this year could make a similar run.  Do not be shocked to see VCU in the Elite Eight or Final 4 this year.

UCLA- UCLA could be vulnerable to a first round upset, though the team is a match-up nightmare due to their depth, and go-to player in Shabazz Muhammad.  The Bruins have played good basketball over the past month, winning the Pac-12 season and playing in the championship game tonight for the Pac-12 tourney (Quick prediction:  UCLA 72 Oregon 67).  Many teams will want to avoid the Bruins.

Iowa State- Iowa State seems destined for a 8-10 seed.  Should they win a round one match-up, 1 and 2 seeds will not like their draw.  Led by former Cyclone Fred Hoiberg, the Cyclones score a lot of points.  They won't make a deep run, but could upset a top team who doesn't show up defensively.

Kentucky- At this point, Kentucky might not even make the tournament.  If they do get in, not many teams will wish to face them.  Underachieving all year, the team does have potential to win games in the tournament, and could be a very tough out if Goodwin, Poythress and company decide to play hard.

Bucknell- Bucknell will draw a 12 or 13 seed.  4 and 5 seeds watch-out.  Led by center Mike Muscala, Bucknell seems poised to upset a top team, as the school has done before to powerhouses Kansas and Syracuse.   Bucknell nearly pulled off an upset at Missouri, and beat fellow bubble team LaSalle at home.  As a potential upset team, the Bisons have potential.

James Madison- This is a HUGE longshot.  There have been talks that this could be the year that a 16 seed knocks off a 1 seed.  I disagree that this is the year, as the number 1 seeds are still strong this year.  If there is to be a close call, watch for James Madison to be the opposing team.  The Colonial Conference is stronger than other mid-majors that produce 16 seeds, as George Mason and VCU were both in the colonial when they made their deep runs.  It would take a perfect game from James Madison, but this 16 seed is most likely to pull it off this year.

Blazers vs. Pistons

Amidst the chaos of college basketball conference tournaments, a Blazer team is stuck in no-mans land.  As has been the debate for the past few weeks, should the Blazers insert young talent further in the rotation (we all know what this means for our W-L record) or do we continue to fight for the playoffs, and potentially lose our top-12 protected first round pick should we come up short?  A tough case to plead either side, both sides would agree that this Blazer squad is superior to the visiting Pistons.  Detroit has gone winless this month, while giving up an absurd 107 points per game.  Expect the Blazers to score a lot of points tonight.

Keys:
1. +7 on the rebounds- Detroit can stay in the game longer than they should by picking up offensive rebounds.  Portland can put the game away early by dominating the glass.
2 Lillard gets 25- Detroit is physically strong on the inside with Maxiell and Monroe.  Lillard's penetration will wreak havoc on the Pistons' defense, which will then open up LA for post ups and pick & pops.
3 <10 turnovers- The best way to let a bad team stay in a game is to give the ball away.  Batum and Matthews, in addition to Lillard and Maynor, have to take care of the ball well to win this game.

Prediction:  Blazers 104 Pistons 90

Post Combine, Mid FA NFL Mock Draft

I will preface the mock with this:  Most everything will probably change.  Free agents will be added, more players could be cut, thus creating new needs.  Trades will be made both up and down, but it is far to early to project anything like that.  Finally, there will undoubtedly be a few players who mess up their draft stock before the day when they could hear their name called.  Given uncertainty, here is how the mock could project right now.

ROUND 1
1 KC- Luke Joeckel OT/Texas A&M- Easy choice for KC, they have to protect their new starting QB Alex Smith.  I don't think Andy Reid is a great coach, but he is a pretty good one.  Chiefs should bounce back nicely this year.
2 JAX- Dion Jordan OLB-DE/Oregon- Gus Bradley will build up his defense as fast as he can.  Jordan may not be worth the #2 pick (it could easily be Mingo or Ansah), but offers instant pass rush and potential for improvement.  Seattle will miss Bradley, and Jacksonville finally has reason for optimism.
3 OAK- Sharrif Floyd DT/Florida- Oakland desperately needs an interior presence, and Floyd's stock has been rising very fast.  Strong and mobile, he can help bring credibility to the Oakland defense.
4 PHI- Dee Milliner CB/Alabama- Heartbreak for Detroit.  After cutting Nnamdi, Chip Kelly will have to add the top corner in the class.  He will get similar results at less cost (though they are absorbing a good amount of Asomugha's)
5 DET- Eric Fisher OT/Central Michigan- Detroit needs most help in the secondary, and could trade down.  Fisher provides excellent value as a future LT, to protect the injury prone Matt Stafford.
6 CLE- Ezekiel Ansah DE/BYU- Ansah is a freak athlete, and will upgrade the defensive line in Cleveland.  Jabaal Sheard was their only pass rush source last year, which isn't good enough in a division with Flacco, Roethlisberger and Dalton.
7 ARZ- Barkevious Mingo OLB-DE/LSU- Shot in the dark here.  I think Bruce Arians is smart enough to pass on Geno Smith (who should be more of a 20-32 pick).  Mingo will help pressure Wilson and Kaepernick, and has the speed to contain read-options.  They could trade back into rd. 1 to target Barkley
8 BUF- Geno Smith QB/West Virginia- Buddy Nix is not as smart.  After cutting Fitzpatrick, they will hand the reigns to Smith.  My only question:  can he really provide more value year one than Tarvaris Jackson?
9 NYJ- Jarvis Jones OLB/Georgia- I know there are red flags regarding his spine, but he is still the best pass rusher in the draft.  If Coples figures out the NFL, the Jets could have a potentially dominant pass rush duo.  This would be a good pick for the Jets, which is why it probably won't happen.
10 TEN- Lane Johnson OT/Oklahoma- After signing Andy Levitre at guard, the Titans continue to bolster their offensive line by adding a tackle.  Jake Locker needs better protection to develop fully, and Chris Johnson still has to prove he can be a dominant RB.  Johnson helps both.
11 SD- Tavon Austin WR/West Virginia- This would be a shocking pick.  Rivers needs better protection, but he also has missed having a versatile slot/back to dump off passes to.  Austin could have a MONSTER year in San Diego.  It would be considered a reach on draft day, but not in weeks 14-17 of the season.
12 MIA- Desmond Trufant CB/Washington- After signing Wallace and Hartline to long deals, WR is not longer a primary concern.  The secondary is.  Trufant shows good instincts and had a great combine.  In a draft with no sure candidate to be the #2 corner taken, Trufant will emerge..
13 TB- Xavier Rhodes CB/Florida State- Rhodes might be a reach here, but the Bucs are desperate for help at CB.  Mark Barron has helped, but they need a guy who can matchup with WRs like Colston and Smith in their conference.
14 CAR- Star Lotulelei DT/Utah- Medical Red Flags are apparent, but Carolina will jump for joy if he falls this far.  If healthy, he would be considered as high as #2.  If he checks out medically, this is the steal of the draft.
15 NO- Sheldon Richardson DT/Missouri- The Saints would love for Star to fall one more spot, but would be happy with Richardson too.  He is a massive space eater, and provides a decent pass rush from the interior as well.  He can start week one for the Saints D that desperately needs an upgrade.
16 STL- Kenny Vacarro S/Texas- The Rams biggest need is safety, especially considering the receivers that have been added to their conference.  Vacarro is a physical tackler with good ball skills.  He could be a menace to opposing QBs.
17 PIT- Damontre Moore DE/Texas A&M- He has damaged his stock a lot, but Pittsburgh will still take him, especially after the release of James Harrison.  Moore provides a good pass rush, but has to improve his motor and fundamentals.  Under Mike Tomlin, he would land in a good spot.
18 DAL- Jonathan Cooper G/North Carolina- Cooper could go in the top ten, but falls due to positional concerns.  The best player on the board, he instantly upgrades the offensive line for Dallas, helping both Romo and Murray.
19 NYG- Chance Warmack G/Alabama- Warmack could also go top ten.  A better run blocker than cooper, he is a better fit in New York anyways, and will be instrumental in helping year 2 player David Wilson get through gaps for big gains.
20 CHI- Cordarelle Patterson WR/Tennessee- Offensive line is probably a bigger concern, though Patterson offers more value here than DJ Fluker would.  Cutler has virtually nobody to throw to outside of Marshall, and Patterson can help draw defenders away while also stretching the field.
21 CIN- Margus Hunt DE/SMU- Hunt is a physical freak, at 6'8", who has capabilities as a pass rusher and run stopper.  Next to Geno Atkins, Hunt could break out as a fantastic DE.  His great combine elevated his stock.
22 STL (WAS)- Keenan Allen WR/California- Allen would give Bradford his most reliable target, as he can line up all over the field.  The Rams lack a number 1 option at WR, and Allen could fill that Slot for years to come.
23 MIN- Tyler Eifert TE/Notre Dame- After dealing Harvin, the Vikings have to find some playmakers for Ponder to throw to.  Not a fantastic blocker, Eifert could dominate the 8-15 yard passing game where Ponder is at his best.
24 IND- DJ Fluker OT/Alabama- Protecting Andrew Luck more is vital to the Colts' success.  He was sacked too many times, which is unacceptable for a QB who will be the best in the league in 5 years (yes, I said that).
25 MIN (SEA)- Justin Hunter WR/Tennessee- Minnesota takes another pass catcher.  Hunter was once thought to be the top receiver in the draft, but that talk faded.  After a great combine, he is back in the mix for many round one teams.  Minnesota could trade back to get extra picks and still get a good WR, which is stacked for the late first- early second round this year.
26 GB- Eddie Lacy RB/Alabama- Green Bay has consistently lacked a competent running back since Aaron Rodgers took over.  Lacy is a physical runner who could help take some pressure off of Rodgers by forcing opponents to guard the run game as well.
27 HOU- Alec Ogletree LB/Georgia- Based on talent, Ogletree should be taken in the top half of round one.  Given a DUI in the last month, coupled that he did not blow anyone away at the combine, his stock could slip.  Houston needs a WR across from Johnson, but Ogletree is too good to pass up here.
28 DEN- Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB/Connecticut- Denver needs a replacement for Champ Bailey, and Wreh-Wilson could be the guy.  CBs always rise on draft day, and he could easily land in round one.  A very good athlete, he has cover skills to earn time immediately.
29 NE- DeAndre Hopkins WR/Clemson- Amidst rumors that Welker could leave, Brady will need competent targets to throw to on the outside and in the slot.  Hopkins is incredibly versatile, and can be lined up all over the field.  The thought of Hopkins with Tom Brady is scary.
30 ATL- Sylvester Williams DT/North Carolina- Atlanta lost some pass rush on the exterior, and can bolster their D-Line with a good interior pass rusher.  Atlanta has been solid in drafts by taking the best players available, and Williams fits the bill here.
31 SF- Matt Elam S/Florida- Amidst concerns that Dashon Goldson will sign elsewhere, the Niners could draft a replacement.  Elam is the 2nd best safety in the draft, and could start week one for an already dominant defense.
32 BAL- Manti T'eo ILB/Notre Dame- Baltimore desperately needs a safety, as Ed Reed's status is up in the air, and Bernard Pollard was cut.  T'eo however provides a ton of value, and can replace the now retired Ray Lewis.  T'eo has his flaws, but, based on talent, he should not fall out of round 1.

ROUND 2
33 JAX- Melenik Watson OT/Florida State
34 SF (KC)- Bjoern Werner DE/Florida State
35 PHI- Kawaan Short DT/Purdue
36 DET- Jonathan Banks CB/Mississippi State
37 CIN- Monte Ball RB/Wisconsin
38 ARZ- Matt Barkley QB/USC
39 NYJ- Ryan Nassib QB/Syracuse
40 TEN- Jonathan Hankins DT/Ohio State
41 BUF- Robert Woods WR/USC
42 MIA- Zach Ertz TE/Stanford
43 TB- Jonathan Jenkins DT/Georgia
44 CAR- Terrance Williams WR/Baylor
45 SD- Terron Armstead OT/Ark. Pine Bluff
46 STL- Sam Montgomery DE/LSU
47 DAL- Bennie Logan DT/LSU
48 PIT- Jonathan Cyprien S/Florida International
49 NYG- Datone Jones DE/UCLA
50 CHI- Kevin Minter ILB/LSU
51 WAS- Arthur Brown ILB/Kansas State
52 MIN- Alex Okafor DE/Texas
53 CIN- Dallas Thomas OG/Tennessee
54 MIA- Tank Carradine DE/Florida State
55 GB- Kyle Long G-T/Oregon
56 SEA- Jesse Williams DT/Alabama
57 HOU- Quinton Patton WR/Louisiana Tech
58 DEN- Corey Lemonier DE/Auburn
59 NE- Jamar Taylor CB/Boise State
60 ATL- Sio Moore OLB/Connecticut
61 SF- Justin Pugh G-T/Syracuse
62 BAL- Eric Reid S/LSU

Blazers NBA Draft Prospects

In a recent article in the Oregonian, columnist Jason Quick noted that GM Neil Olshey has a system of watching college players, in preparation for the NBA Draft.  They have targeted "15-18" college players, with each scout observing that player three times.  Who could these players be?
*My big board rankings will rank players differently than this, ex: I have Len rated higher than most, and Bennett lower than most.

Out of our range/trade up:  Unless Portland moves up via the draft lottery, these players most likely won't fall into the latter portion of the lottery.  We would most likely love most of these players, but they won't last at this point.

Ben McLemore SG/Kansas
Nerlens Noel PF/Kentucky
Shabazz Muhammad SF/UCLA
Marcus Smart PG/Oklahoma State
Otto Porter SF/Georgetown

Could slip:  These players most likely will not last to where Portland would pick in rd one (if they keep their pick- remember, it is top 12 protected).  Unlike the prospects listed above, though, these players have at least some chance of landing in spots 8-12.

Cody Zeller C/Indiana
Alex Len C/Maryland
Victor Oladipo SG/Indiana
Anthony Bennett

In our range:  Unlike the top 9 players listed above, these players will almost surely be available from spots 10-12.

Michael Carter-Williams PG/Syracuse
CJ McCollum G/Lehigh
Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor
Trey Burke PG/Michigan
Alex Poythress F/Kentucky
Archie Goodwin SG/Kentucky
Gary Harris SG/Michigan State
Rudy Gobert C/France
Willie Cauley Stein C/Kentucky
Mason Plumlee PF/Duke
Allan Crabbe SG/California
Kelly Olynyk PF/Gonzaga

Trade Down:  If we cannot find a player we like in that spot (unlikely) or (more likely) find a player who we love, and can still get at a lower slot, this could be an option.  Potential players:

Russ Smith G/Louisville
Andre Roberson F/Colorado
Sergey Karasev F/Russia
Dario Saric F/Serbia
James McAdoo PF/North Carolina
CJ Leslie F/NC State
Gorgui Dieng C/Louisville
Jeff Withey C/Kansas
Steven Adams C/Pittsburgh
Jamaal Franklin SF/San Diego State
Myck Kabongo PG/Texas
CJ Wilcox SG/Washington
Tony Mitchell F/North Texas
LeBryan Nash SF/Oklahoma State
Glenn Robinson III SF/Michigan
Mouhammadou Jaiteh C/France
Giannis Adetokunbo F/Greece
   *Note- Trading up with 2 rd. 2 picks could potentially net a player of this caliber as well

Second round potential picks:  These players show more value in round 2, as they slipped from the end of rd. 1 (i.e Will Barton last year) or offer value with skills Portland needs.

Nemanja Nedovic G/Serbia
Brandon Paul SG/Illinois
Kyle Anderson F/UCLA
Isaiah Canaan PG/Murray State
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG/Georgia
Lorenzo Brown PG/NC State
Richard Howell PF/NC State
Doug McDermott SF/Creighton
DeShaun Thomas SF/Ohio State
Jackie Carmichael PF/Illinois State
Mike Muscala C/Bucknell
Elias Harris SF/Gonzaga
Lucas Nogueira C/Brazil
Aziz N'Diaye C/Washington
CJ Fair F/Syracuse
Phil Pressey PG/Missouri
Patric Young C/Florida
Erick Green PG/Virginia Tech
Nate Wolters PG/South Dakota State
Kenny Kadji PF/Miami

It is important to note that not all of these players will even be in the draft.  Most are underclassmen who may not declare, or international players who will try again in a year or two.  In a weak draft class (at the top- it is actually quite deep), many players will enter thinking they could get taken higher.  If there are players I left out that should be considered, post in the comments.

Follow on twitter @ZRey12

Current S Curve for NCAA Tournament

Conference tournaments are underway (some have finished already) and others will soon start.  Some bids will most likely be stolen and reduce the bids available for bubble teams, for example, if Memphis loses, C-USA will get 2 bids, thus reducing at large bids by 1 for bubble teams, as Memphis will make it regardless.  In major conferences, these upsets are possible as well.  With no truly dominant team in any conference, this could be the year an unlikely team wins a conference tournament.  Here is how the S-Curve looks, in my opinion:

LOCKS:

1.  Indiana
2.  Duke
3.  Gonzaga
4.  Louisville
5.  Kansas
6.  Georgetown
7.  Florida
8.  Ohio State
9.  Michigan
10.  Miami
11.  Michigan State
12.  Oklahoma State
13.  New Mexico
14.  Syracuse
15.  Arizona
16.  Kansas State
17.  Marquette
18.  St. Louis
19.  UCLA
20.  Pittsburgh
21.  UNLV
22.  VCU
23.  Wisconsin
24.  Creighton
25.  Oregon
26.  Butler
27.  San Diego State
28.  Missouri
29.  Notre Dame
30.  California
31.  North Carolina
32.  Memphis
33.  NC State
34.  St Mary's
35.  Colorado
36.  Temple
37.  Cincinnati
38.  Colorado State
39.  Minnesota
    BUBBLE:
40.  Illinois
41.  Kentucky
42.  Villanova
43.  Iowa State
44.  Wichita State
    LAST 4 IN:
45.  Tennessee
46.  Oklahoma
47.  Boise State
48.  Virginia
    Projected Conference Winners:
49.  Belmont 
50.  Akron
51.  Bucknell
52.  Denver
53.  Davidson
54.  Ohio
55.  Iona
56.  Harvard
57.  Weber State
58.  James Madison
59.  Long Beach State
60.  South Dakota State
61.  Stephen F. Austin
62.  Western Kentucky
63.  NW State
64.  Norfolk State
65.  Vermont
66.  Southern
67.  LIU Brooklyn
68.  Liberty

Next Ten OUT:
LaSalle
Baylor
Iowa
Alabama
Arizona State
Southern Miss
Ole Miss
Middle Tennessee
Washington
Providence

New NBA Mock Draft (round 1)

Here is an updated mock draft for this summer.  Big board rankings for player in parenthesis:

1.  Charlotte- Ben McLemore (3) McLemore makes the most sense for the Bobcats.  A natural scorer, he fits in next to Walker and MKG to make an appealing backcourt for the future.
2.  Orlando- Marcus Smart (7) Smart makes a lot of sense for Orlando, who still has Jameer Nelson running the point.  With youth at all other positions, grooming a new point guard is important.
3.  Washington- Nerlens Noel (2) Washington has their backcourt set, and Noel would give the Wizards an interior defensive presence that has been lacking.  Next to Nene, Noel could fit well.  Reminds me of a very raw Ibaka.
4.  Cleveland- Shabazz Muhammad (1) The top guy goes #4?  How?  In a draft with no superstar, team needs will come into play more.  Muhammad's stock has inexplicably dropped lately, though he will wind up being a good defender and a potential 20 point scorer.  Next to Irving, Cleveland could have 2 all-stars.
5.  Sacramento- Otto Porter (5) Porter is extremely versatile, and won't come in demanding a ton of shots.  Next to Marcus Thornton, the Kings (Sonics?) could wind up with an underrated wing duo.
6.  New Orleans- Anthony Bennett (8) Neither Len or Zeller fit well next to Davis, but Bennett does nicely.  An undersized 4, he will bring physicality to a front line next to Davis, while also showing some ability from 18 feet.  If he continues to develop his shot, the corner 3 could be a good spot for him too.
7.  Phoenix- Alex Len (4) Marcin Gortat is a good center for a team who doesn't need him to score.  Phoenix is rebuilding, and should get young/future assets for Gortat this summer.  Len could give much of the same value Gortat gives now, though he will need to get stronger.
8.  Minnesota- Cody Zeller (6) Minnesota has dealt with frontcourt injuries the whole season.  Love is the best 4 in the game when healthy, and Pekovic is in for a giant raise this summer.  Zeller can step in and start right away if they decide to move on from Pek.  If they keep him, they have a great 3 big man rotation.
9.  Detroit- Victor Oladipo (9) Detroit seems to be in the right place in every draft, having Monroe and Drummond land in their laps the past two.  Oladipo is the best perimeter defender in this draft class, and will show some ability to score.  He could be Tony Allen with more offense.
10.  OKC (from Toronto)-CJ McCollum G/Lehigh (10) Kevin Martin is a free agent, and McCollum could be a future replacement as a scoring 6th man.  A go to guy at Lehigh, don't be surprised if he ends up scoring 15 per game in the pros one day.
11.  Philadelphia- Isaiah Austin PF/Baylor (11) Philadelphia has missed Vucevic all season.  Austin has a similar skill set, and has defensive potential at over 7 feet.  If Bynum can return to form, Austin is a great compliment.
12.  Dallas- Trey Burke (14) Dallas has no point guard of the future.  Burke is undersized, and could become a better shooter, but is a blur in transition and is a very good passer and defender.  He could be a top 10 pick by June.
13.  Charlotte (from Portland)- Mason Plumlee (19) Charlotte could use the grit and motor Plumlee plays with.  He won't ever be a star, but next to Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte could have a frontcourt that puts in A LOT of effort on the glass and defensive end.
14.  Phoenix (from LA Lakers)- Allan Crabbe (13) Dragic is a very good passer, and should rack up more assists once he has more capable players to pass to.  Crabbe could be the best shooter in the draft, and could have a similar impact as Klay Thompson in a year or two.
15.  Milwaukee- Michael Carter-Williams (16) Brandon Jennings' future in Milwaukee is unknown, as he could get overpaid by a team in restricted free agency.  Drafting the 6'6" MCW could indicate moving on from Jennings.  Not an initial starter, his potential is higher in years 3 and 4 to start during his rookie contract.
16.  Atlanta (from Houston)- Alex Poythress (12) Poythress has a lot of physical talent, though has struggled to consistently produce at Kentucky.  His motor has also been questioned.  In the middle of round one though, he could provide fantastic value.
17.  Utah- Gary Harris (15)- Utah could use more outside shooting.  Gordon Hayward is a good shooter, but the team needs more than 1.  Harris provides above average defense as well.  Another good value.
18.  Boston- Dario Saric (24)- Boston has issues with the salary cap and aging players.  Saric could be stashed in Europe for a few years until Boston is ready for him.
19.  Utah (from Golden State)- Rudy Gobert (18) Don't expect Al Jefferson to wear a Jazz uniform next year, as Kanter will most likely get the nod to be the starter next year.  Gobert is a project center who the Jazz can afford to wait on.
20.  Atlanta- Archie Goodwin (17)- Ok, I know, ATL gets UK's underwhelming duo.  Both came into the season as top 10 prospects, and have both shown glimpses of being good players at the next level.  A chance worth taking.
21.  Brooklyn- Willie Cauley-Stein (20)- Brook Lopez has emerged as one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference, though he still is not a great rebounder.  Cauley-Stein could become an efficient rebounder with a low-post game.  A solid back-up for the next 3-4 years.
22.  Chicago- Mason Plumlee (19)- Boozer could get amnestied and Gibson will become a starter.  Plumlee can step in right away for rotation minutes, as he is a good rebounder and defender.
23.  New York- Russ Smith (22)- Russ-diculous would look great in New York's up and down pace.  He has potential to become a shorter (6'0") JR Smith type player, and offers potential as a potential 6th man.
24.  Indiana- Kelly Olynyk (32)- David West's years are becoming limited, and Olynyk has a fluid offensive game and is a great athlete.  He would fit into the culture the Pacers have been trying to build.  Compliments George nicely.
25.  Denver- Jeff Withey (33)- Denver could lose Mozgov to an offer around 4-5 million yearly this summer, and they would be better off replacing him with the talented defensive player Withey.  Withey is a better shot blocker than Mozgov anyways.
26.  Minnesota (from Memphis)- CJ Leslie (21) Leslie is a fantastic athlete who has improved his game this year, especially on the offensive end.  He still isn't a great defensive player, but his length and athleticism offers potential.
27.  LA Clippers- Andre Roberson (23) Roberson's claim to fame is his elite rebounding.  A combo forward, he is an ok set shooter and a decent defender.  He could fill Matt Barnes' role.  If he ever learns to shoot he could be a steal this low.
28.  Oklahoma City- Gorgui Dieng (36) Dieng is a fantastic shot blocker, and could be a replacement for Hasheem Thabeet.  Dieng's offensive game likely won't improve much, but he could be a shot blocking presence when Ibaka isn't in the game.
29.  Cleveland (from Miami)- James McAdoo (25) It is amazing how far McAdoo has fallen.  If Mareese Speights isn't retained, McAdoo could be a low cost replacement.  He has a solid touch around the rim, but isn't a good defender. 
30.  San Antonio- Nemanja Nedovic (27) I love Nedovic's game.  He would be a steal if San Antonio picks him up.  A combo guard, he is a great athlete and an improving shooter and defender.  If he improves his point guard skills we could be looking at Goran Dragic 2.0.

 Round 2 prospects to keep an eye on:
Isaiah Canaan, Tony Mitchell, Sergey Karasev, CJ Wilcox, Myck Kabongo, Elias Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Mike Muscala,

Game Preview vs. Minnesota

Minnesota like Portland, has struggled over the past month.  Love has been dealing with injuries for most of the season, Rubio missed the first portion, and they haven't had the improvements on the wing that were needed.  Pekovic has had a good season, Dante Cunningham has been a valuable role player, and they have 3 great backup point guards in Barea, Ridnour and Shved (Kahn and his PGs...).  Without their two best players in Rubio and Love (who has shown he is the best PF in the game when healthy) Minnesota was doomed from the start.  They had one chance, a long-shot as every Blazer fan around the world knew:  Brandon Roy. 

Again, Roy has been derailed by knee injuries.  He has played in only 5 games this season, averaging 5.8 points and 4.6 assists, though hasn't shot the ball well.  He hasn't played since November 9.  Roy's story has become sad, potentially bringing tears to the most die hard fans.  A star at the University of Washington, Roy was traded to Portland on draft day in 2006 one what was the most active day for the Blazers front office in the franchise's history.  There were concerns about his knees pre-draft, but the Blazers took the risk.  He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2007, followed by 3 consecutive All-Star appearances from 2008-2010 (including 2 All-NBA teams).  The core drafted of Aldridge and Oden, but led by Roy, was supposed to bring Portland numerous NBA Finals appearances and potentially championships.  Remember the "Rise With Us" posters?  (*For the record, I still have one on display).  Knee injuries became common for Greg Oden and Brandon Roy.  Roy, our franchise player/savior, never regained form (though game 4 against Dallas in 2011 was magical).  Amnestied, he signed with Minnesota to regain his career's form, though, again, the state of his bone on bone knees has prevented his valiant comeback.

The Oregonian's Jason Quick published an article earlier this week about how Roy should retire tomorrow at the Rose Garden.  I agree.  (Link: http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/index.ssf/2013/02/blazers_insider_brandon_roy_should_share_one_more.html)  Roy brought this franchise out of the Jail Blazer Era.  Within the next few years, his #7 jersey should be hanging from the rafters alongside Drexler, Walton, and all of the other members of the 1977 championship team.  For a player who was next to Bryant and Wade as a truly elite shooting guard, his career has ended too soon, and it should end tomorrow night in Portland where it began.  He will forever be an icon in Blazer history.  Win or lose, most of the commotion surrounding this game will be about Roy's return.

Projected Starters:

Blazers: Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, Hickson
T-Wolves: Rubio, Ridnour, Williams, Cunningham, Pekovic (Love is out and Kirilenko is presumed to be out)

Keys to the game:
1. Force 15 turnovers.  Without Love, the Wolves strength lies in their guards.  By pressuring Rubio, Ridnour, Barea and Shved, the Blazers can force turnovers and get out in transition.
2. Win the Rebounding Battle- The rebound numbers for Aldridge have been pedestrian over his last 5 games.  Pekovic is strong in the middle, though Hickson and Aldridge should each pick up 10 reb. this game without a ton of difficulty.
3. Hold them under 95- Portland hasn't had an issue scoring since Feb. 1, though the defense has worsened to the point that they only held their opponent under 100 5 times in February.  Defense will win this game.

Go Blazers!

Follow on twitter @ZRey12

#ReturnofRoy

College Basketball Top 25

It is nearly March- almost time for the NCAA Tournament.  As exciting of an event as any other in all of sports, many teams are vying for top spots in the polls (and soon enough a top seed), and also to improve records enough to be chosen as an at-large team should the conference tournament not end in a win.  Here is how my top 25 would look right now (analysis of top 10):

1.  Gonzaga- Sounds crazy to put the Zags at the top.  This team is super deep, and likely won't lose another game until the tournament.  I'm not sure anyone matches up well to Kelly Olynyk.
2.  Indiana- OK, I know they just lost to Minnesota.  I'm not confident on any other team at 2.  Michigan lost to Penn State, Miami lost to Wake Forest.  Duke is the only other consideration.
3.  Georgetown- If the season ended today, I would put Georgetown on the top line.  Winning the Big East, even in a down year, isn't easy.  Otto Porter has emerged as a legitimate Naismith contender.  With a big conference tourney, he could win it.  Will be a top 7 pick.
4.  Louisville- Siva and Smith are the best defensive backcourt in the country.  Dieng has been very good inside, and they have depth at the 3 and 4 spots.  Never count out a Pitino team to make a deep and late run.
5.  Kansas- I ranked Elijah Johnson as a pre-season All-American.  I'll admit, I missed on that one.  If he could play every game close to the level of his 39 point outburst, Kansas would have the best wing tandem in the country.
6.  Duke- Sulaimon is starting to play like a go to guy.  Duke's team has a great scoring backcourt and a do it all forward in Plumlee, who is an ideal fit for the college game.  Duke won't be an easy out, but they're just as vulnerable to an upset as other teams (see loss to Virginia).
7.  Michigan- I know they lost to Penn State (first Big Ten win...) but I am willing to overlook that at this point.  Burke, Stauskas and Hardaway all compliment each other well, and Robinson III is starting to figure the competition out.  Don't sleep on this team after this loss.
8.  Florida- Florida's defensive efficiency could lead them to the Final 4.  Offensively, Erik Murphy is a gifted scorer, though not incredibly athletic, and shooters are all around the perimeter.  Florida plays as a team very well.
9.  Miami- The coach who famously led George Mason to the final 4 is at it again in Miami, and has his team playing great defense.  Solid at all positions, Kenny Kadji is a match-up problem for every team, as he is years older than other players and stronger too.  Add in 3 point range from all their players (not Johnson) and they're a tough out.
10.  Michigan State- Michigan State is athletic, shoots the ball well and plays good defense.  Tom Izzo's squad doesn't have the same talent as the teams at the top, but their teamwork and work ethic could lead them deep in the tournament.
11.  Arizona
12.  Syracuse
13.  Oklahoma State
14.  Saint Louis
15.  Ohio State
16.  Marquette
17.  Wisconsin
18.  Oregon
19.  Kansas State
20.  Virginia Commonwealth
21.  UCLA
22.  New Mexico
23.  Virginia
24.  Butler
25.  California

Next 5:  Memphis, Colorado, Pitt (not ranked- but watch out come tourney time), St. Mary's,  Notre Dame